CCS Final Top 10 and year in Review
- Thread starter PALbooster
- Start date
Paul,
My best guess is that if Kings Academy beat SHP which is clearly possible they would probably gain 3 points (two for a win and probably switch places with SHP in CCS rankings where SHP is currently 9th and KA is currently 11th). KA would lose a point as a KA win over SHP would likely push them out of the state's top 150 and they would lose a bonus point for playing SHP (KA would probably move into the top 150). The net result would be to move KA from 57 points to 60 and SHP from 61 to 58 - so they would both likely stay in DII and probably switch positions from current projections.
Question for pal booster. If SH beats Bellermine and Riordan ang finishes 6th in the WCAL would they qualify for CCS playoffs
The 6th place finisher in the WCAL will make the CCS play-offs. If SHC were to finish 6th they would likely end up with 23 points (4 for two wins, 10 for schedule, 1 for playing the WCAL champ, 6 bonus points for playing CA top 100 teams (Serra, VC, SI) and 2 for playing top 150 teams (SF, Mitty). They are currently ranked 33rd in the CCS but wins over Riordan who is #25 and Bellamrine who is #16 would likely elevate them into the 20-25 range for section rankings and give them a final point total in the low 40's which would be a low seed in division 3 or a high seed in division 4.
Hey PAL Booster
I seemed to have missed playoff 101. Do all of the D classifications move on to the NorCal regionals? How do they correspond to the CIF classifications?
WCAy-L75
The new CCS play-off system will have 5 divisions - with the 5 division winners advancing to the norcal regional play-offs. There is no relationship between the CCS football play-off divisions and the CIF classifications. Each year under this system the 40 CCS play-off teams (33 automatic qualifiers and 7 at-large teams) will be ranked from 1-40 based on combination of CCS points (wins + Schedule+Bonus points) + Norcal preps rating (top rated CCS team gets 40 points, second rated CCS team gets 39 down to the 40th ranked team gets 1 point).
The top 8 teams after this formula are division I, the next 8 division II, etc. Does not matter what your CBED is, what level league you play in, etc. Just solely based on point formula above.
My sense is that on a regional basis they are also not paying much attention to school size by attendence - they are using the norcalpreps and cal-hi rankings to rank all teams that qualify for norcal and then go down the list and pair them off - #1 in the open #2 and #3 to DIA #4 and D5 into DIAA, etc. and the same for Southern California.
The new CCS play-off system will have 5 divisions - with the 5 division winners advancing to the norcal regional play-offs. There is no relationship between the CCS football play-off divisions and the CIF classifications. Each year under this system the 40 CCS play-off teams (33 automatic qualifiers and 7 at-large teams) will be ranked from 1-40 based on combination of CCS points (wins + Schedule+Bonus points) + Norcal preps rating (top rated CCS team gets 40 points, second rated CCS team gets 39 down to the 40th ranked team gets 1 point).
The top 8 teams after this formula are division I, the next 8 division II, etc. Does not matter what your CBED is, what level league you play in, etc. Just solely based on point formula above.
My sense is that on a regional basis they are also not paying much attention to school size by attendence - they are using the norcalpreps and cal-hi rankings to rank all teams that qualify for norcal and then go down the list and pair them off - #1 in the open #2 and #3 to DIA #4 and D5 into DIAA, etc. and the same for Southern California.
Again, it's the equity formula. So CCS, by rule, will not be sending its top teams to the regionals.
Top 5 CCS teams today are Serra - Valley Christian - Wilcox - Saint Ignatius - Menlo Atherton
Should the "current" number one seeds in each division win, CCS will send Serra (ranked 1 in CCS now) - Los Gatos (ranked 10 in CCS) - Oak Grove (ranked 21) - Monte Vista Christian (ranked 24) - and Overfelt (ranked 32) to the Nor Cal play-in games.
And if the current eight seeds in each division were to win in major upsets, CCS will send Mitty (ranked 8) - Hollister (ranked 15), Soquel (ranked 26), Willow Glen (ranked 36) and Mt Pleasant (ranked 71) to the Nor Cal play-in games. So the team ranked 71st in CCS could make it to the Nor Cal game.
Which is ridiculous. Are the other sections using the same criteria, or is it just the CCS using the “everyone gets a trophy” mentality?
I would mirror what the other sections in NorCal do. As long as everyone is using the same criteria I have no problem. Short of that I would get rid of the Open Division and have everyone play at their enrollment level.
That's the problem. The SJS has moved towards a competitive-equity model, but the NCS continues to shield its small private school powers. There is no uniformity.
Ultimately, the new CCS divisions are about as balanced as you can get. I think it's a terrific model for the rest of the state, if the rest of the sections had the guts to do it. The SS is also trying to include competitive equity, but it's based on the results of the last two years, therefore will almost always be a year behind for developing programs.
The teams that advance to the NorCal regionals were never supposed to be the top 5 or 6 teams from a section. They were supposed to be the winners of each division. In the past, though, the divisions had no hierarchy. The D-II winner was generally better than D-I, etc. Now, that's a thing of the past. In the SS, if you're the #8 team in D-I/II, your reward is a first-round game against either Mater Dei or St. John Bosco. If you're #9, you're the top seed in D-II. This is not that different for the CCS, except that this is the case section-wide, whereas it's only for D-I and D-II in the SS.
Norcal CCS top ten after week 8
MA beat SHP 26-20 and moved up from 5 to 3 in this weeks rankings and the loss dropped SHP from 9 to 10. Serra beat Saint Francis 35-21 to retain their number 1 ranking. SF did not drop as a result of the loss.
This coming week the top six teams will be heavily favored while #7 Saint Frnacis squares off against # 8 Mitty, #9 Los Gatos faces #13 Palo Alto and #10 Sacred Heart Prep plays #11 Kings Academy so there could be some movement in the lower half of the tope ten next week.
Serra 1 (1) 3 14
Valley Christian 2 (2) 4 24
Menlo-Atherton 3 (5) 17 79
Wilcox 4 (4) 18 80
Saint Ignatius 5 (4) 21 95
Half Moon Bay 6 (6) 32 115
St. Francis 7 (7) 33 116
Mitty 8 (8) 35 119
Los Gatos 9 (10) 40 134
Sacred Heart Prep 10 (9) 45 143
DI
8. Half Moon Bay 10-0 63.5 at 1. Serra 10-0 87.5
5. Saint Ignatius 7-3 69 at 4. Menlo-Atherton 7-3 72.5
6. St. Francis 5-5 69 at 3. Wilcox 8-2 72.5
7. Los Gatos 9-1 64 at 2. Valley Christian 9-1 78
The only changes here were that Los Gatos moved from the top seed in Division II to the seven seed in DI and HMB dropped from the 7 seed to the 8 seed and Mitty moved to the top seed in DII.
These three teams are seperated by 0.5 points.
DII
8. San Benito 6-4 53 at 1. Mitty 5-5 63.5
5. Palo Alto 7-3 57 at 4. Kings Academy 8-2 57
6. Palma 8-2 55 at 3. Salinas 9-1 61
7. Bellarmine 3-7 55 at 2. Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 62
No changes here except for Mitty replacing Los Gatos as the #1 seed
DIII
8. Hillsdale 7-3 41.5 at 1. Branham 10-0 51.5
5. Mountain View 7-3 46.5 at 4. Oak Grove 8-2 47.5
6. Leland 6-4 46 at 3. Seaside 10-0 48.5
7. Aptos 5-5 45 at 2. Live Oak 9-1 49
Hillsdale replaced Soquel as the #8 seed. Branham jumped from the #6 seed to #1. Oak Grove dropped from #1 to #4 and Mountain View and Leland each dropped one spot.
DIV
8. Mills 9-1 31 at 1. Terra Nova 5-5 40
5. Carmel 5-5 33.5 at 4. San Mateo 7-3 34.5
6. Saratoga 8-2 33 at 3. Soquel 9-1 37.5
7. Burlingame 4-6 32.5 at 2. Monte Vista Christian 7-2 37.6
Terra Nova moved up to the number 1 seed after their mild upset over Burlingame which moved Burlingame to the #7 seed. Mills moved from DV to DIV.
Division V
8, Mount Pleasant 7-3 18 at 1. Overfelt 7-3 30.5
5. Soledad 6-4 23.5 at 4 Gunn 9-1 26.5
6. Santa Teresa 4-6 22 at 3. Willow Glen 7-3 26.5
7. Pacific Grove 6-4 20.5 at 2. Milpitas 3-7 29
Two new teams entered the field this week all in DV. Soledad beat Monterey and replaced them in the field. Milpitas reclaimed an At-large berth. North Monterey County was upset by Snta Cruz and didn't make the field as an at-large team.
MA beat SHP 26-20 and moved up from 5 to 3 in this weeks rankings and the loss dropped SHP from 9 to 10. Serra beat Saint Francis 35-21 to retain their number 1 ranking. SF did not drop as a result of the loss.
This coming week the top six teams will be heavily favored while #7 Saint Frnacis squares off against # 8 Mitty, #9 Los Gatos faces #13 Palo Alto and #10 Sacred Heart Prep plays #11 Kings Academy so there could be some movement in the lower half of the tope ten next week.
Serra 1 (1) 3 14
Valley Christian 2 (2) 4 24
Menlo-Atherton 3 (5) 17 79
Wilcox 4 (4) 18 80
Saint Ignatius 5 (4) 21 95
Half Moon Bay 6 (6) 32 115
St. Francis 7 (7) 33 116
Mitty 8 (8) 35 119
Los Gatos 9 (10) 40 134
Sacred Heart Prep 10 (9) 45 143
DI
8. Half Moon Bay 10-0 63.5 at 1. Serra 10-0 87.5
5. Saint Ignatius 7-3 69 at 4. Menlo-Atherton 7-3 72.5
6. St. Francis 5-5 69 at 3. Wilcox 8-2 72.5
7. Los Gatos 9-1 64 at 2. Valley Christian 9-1 78
The only changes here were that Los Gatos moved from the top seed in Division II to the seven seed in DI and HMB dropped from the 7 seed to the 8 seed and Mitty moved to the top seed in DII.
These three teams are seperated by 0.5 points.
DII
8. San Benito 6-4 53 at 1. Mitty 5-5 63.5
5. Palo Alto 7-3 57 at 4. Kings Academy 8-2 57
6. Palma 8-2 55 at 3. Salinas 9-1 61
7. Bellarmine 3-7 55 at 2. Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 62
No changes here except for Mitty replacing Los Gatos as the #1 seed
DIII
8. Hillsdale 7-3 41.5 at 1. Branham 10-0 51.5
5. Mountain View 7-3 46.5 at 4. Oak Grove 8-2 47.5
6. Leland 6-4 46 at 3. Seaside 10-0 48.5
7. Aptos 5-5 45 at 2. Live Oak 9-1 49
Hillsdale replaced Soquel as the #8 seed. Branham jumped from the #6 seed to #1. Oak Grove dropped from #1 to #4 and Mountain View and Leland each dropped one spot.
DIV
8. Mills 9-1 31 at 1. Terra Nova 5-5 40
5. Carmel 5-5 33.5 at 4. San Mateo 7-3 34.5
6. Saratoga 8-2 33 at 3. Soquel 9-1 37.5
7. Burlingame 4-6 32.5 at 2. Monte Vista Christian 7-2 37.6
Terra Nova moved up to the number 1 seed after their mild upset over Burlingame which moved Burlingame to the #7 seed. Mills moved from DV to DIV.
Division V
8, Mount Pleasant 7-3 18 at 1. Overfelt 7-3 30.5
5. Soledad 6-4 23.5 at 4 Gunn 9-1 26.5
6. Santa Teresa 4-6 22 at 3. Willow Glen 7-3 26.5
7. Pacific Grove 6-4 20.5 at 2. Milpitas 3-7 29
Two new teams entered the field this week all in DV. Soledad beat Monterey and replaced them in the field. Milpitas reclaimed an At-large berth. North Monterey County was upset by Snta Cruz and didn't make the field as an at-large team.
With three weeks to go some league races are pretty clear while others are wide open heading into the home stretch.
A leagues
WCAL - This has become a three tier league. Serra and VC continue to roll through league play and face each other in week 9 in a game that will determine the league championship. SI, Mitty and Saint Francis are competing for the 3-5 spots with SI having an upper hand based on their win over SF. Mitty plays SF this week. Two of these teams and possibly all three will end up in the DI play-offs. The final tier is for the 6th-8th places. The 6th place team will make the play-offs. Bellarmine has the upper hand having defeated Riordan 28-27 in double OT, but still must get past SHC to gain 6th place.
Deanza - Not much suspense in this league. Wilcox has already beaten the best teams in the league and only has two games remaining against lower divsion teams to complete an undefeated league season. Los Gatos and Palo Alto play this week to likely determine second place in the league. A Los Gatos win will likely put them in the Division I play-offs with a loss moving them to DII. Mountain View will gain the last automatic spot. Milpitas will be on the bubble for an at-large spot if they can secure wins over Santa Clara and Fremont over the last three weeks of the season.
PAL-Bay - Menlo-Atherton edged Sacred Heart Prep 26-20 to stay in first place. They still have undefeated Kings Academy ahead of them but will be favored. SHP and Kings Academy play this week in a game that should determine second place. Terra Nova will secure the fourth automatic spot in this league if they beat 1-6 Aragon. Burlingame will need a win in their non-league finale in the Little Big Game against SAn Mateo to gain and at-alrge bid.
Gabilan - Salinas is the favorite having already defeated Palma but plays their last two games against Aptos and San Benito and will need to win out to guarantee a league championship. Palma, Aptos and San Benito should get the other three automatic spots. Right now all four of these teams are projected for the DII. Play-offs. Carmel is in a good position to get an at-large berth if they can secure one win in their final two games against Alvarez and San Benito. Alvarez will likely need to win out against Palma, Carmel and Christopher to gain an at-large berth.
Mount Hamilton - While the four automatic spots are pretty certain for Live Oak, Leland, Oak Grove and Santa Teresa, the league championship is a wide open race between Oak Grove, Leland and Live Oak. Oak Grove has a slight edge having beaten Live Oak, but games in the final three weeks between Leland and Oak Grove and Leland and Live Oak will settle the top three places. This leagues poor pre-league performance has this leagues top tams slated for DivisionIII and with some B league teams finishing with higher ratings.
B Leagues
Mission - this league gets three automatic spots. Seaside and Monte Vista Christian are locks for the top two spots and will face off for the league championship in the final week. Soledad took over as the favorite for the final spot with their upset win over Monterey. Alisal is still in the mix as well for the final automatic spot. The fourth place team won't make it as an at-large team.
PAL-Ocean - Half Moon Bay is a prohibitive favorite with only two league games left against the leagues two winless teams in league play. If Half Moon Bay wins out as expected (including the season ending skull game with non-league rival Terra Nova) they should be on the borderline between the DI and DII play-offs. The second automatic spot will likely go to the winner of the week 9 game between San Mateo and Hillsdale with the loser being well positioned for an at-large berth.
Santa Teresa - Branham has beaten the two their two strongest league opponents and should coast to a 10-0 regular season record. The second automatic spot is still in play. This spot should come down the winner of the week 9 game between Willow Glen and Overfelt with the loser still positioned on the bubble for an at-large berth. However, the winner of this week's Leigh vs Silver Creek game will still only have one league loss heading into the final two weeks and will be in contention as well.
El Camino - This league race is still up in the air with Sratoga, Gunn and Homestead all having one league loss. Saratoga is favored for one of the spots with the second spot likely to be determined between Homestead and Gunn. Gunn would still have a chance for an at-large berth with a loss.
Cyprus - Only one automatic spot available here in this competitive league. Santa Cruz is the league's only undefeated team but has a CalPrep rating below one loss Gonzales and Soquel which are still on their schedule. North Monterey County also only has one loss after being upset by Santa Cruz. The second place team will be on the bubble for an at-large spot.
C Leagues
PAL-Lake - Mills is a prohibitive favorite to be this leagues play-off representative having beat the second strongest team in the league Jefferson.
Santa Lucia - Pacific Grove should coast to a league championship having dispensed with Stevenson this week.
West Valley - Mt. Pleasant is the league's lone undefeated team and only has to navigate one loss Lick to secure the league championship.
A leagues
WCAL - This has become a three tier league. Serra and VC continue to roll through league play and face each other in week 9 in a game that will determine the league championship. SI, Mitty and Saint Francis are competing for the 3-5 spots with SI having an upper hand based on their win over SF. Mitty plays SF this week. Two of these teams and possibly all three will end up in the DI play-offs. The final tier is for the 6th-8th places. The 6th place team will make the play-offs. Bellarmine has the upper hand having defeated Riordan 28-27 in double OT, but still must get past SHC to gain 6th place.
Deanza - Not much suspense in this league. Wilcox has already beaten the best teams in the league and only has two games remaining against lower divsion teams to complete an undefeated league season. Los Gatos and Palo Alto play this week to likely determine second place in the league. A Los Gatos win will likely put them in the Division I play-offs with a loss moving them to DII. Mountain View will gain the last automatic spot. Milpitas will be on the bubble for an at-large spot if they can secure wins over Santa Clara and Fremont over the last three weeks of the season.
PAL-Bay - Menlo-Atherton edged Sacred Heart Prep 26-20 to stay in first place. They still have undefeated Kings Academy ahead of them but will be favored. SHP and Kings Academy play this week in a game that should determine second place. Terra Nova will secure the fourth automatic spot in this league if they beat 1-6 Aragon. Burlingame will need a win in their non-league finale in the Little Big Game against SAn Mateo to gain and at-alrge bid.
Gabilan - Salinas is the favorite having already defeated Palma but plays their last two games against Aptos and San Benito and will need to win out to guarantee a league championship. Palma, Aptos and San Benito should get the other three automatic spots. Right now all four of these teams are projected for the DII. Play-offs. Carmel is in a good position to get an at-large berth if they can secure one win in their final two games against Alvarez and San Benito. Alvarez will likely need to win out against Palma, Carmel and Christopher to gain an at-large berth.
Mount Hamilton - While the four automatic spots are pretty certain for Live Oak, Leland, Oak Grove and Santa Teresa, the league championship is a wide open race between Oak Grove, Leland and Live Oak. Oak Grove has a slight edge having beaten Live Oak, but games in the final three weeks between Leland and Oak Grove and Leland and Live Oak will settle the top three places. This leagues poor pre-league performance has this leagues top tams slated for DivisionIII and with some B league teams finishing with higher ratings.
B Leagues
Mission - this league gets three automatic spots. Seaside and Monte Vista Christian are locks for the top two spots and will face off for the league championship in the final week. Soledad took over as the favorite for the final spot with their upset win over Monterey. Alisal is still in the mix as well for the final automatic spot. The fourth place team won't make it as an at-large team.
PAL-Ocean - Half Moon Bay is a prohibitive favorite with only two league games left against the leagues two winless teams in league play. If Half Moon Bay wins out as expected (including the season ending skull game with non-league rival Terra Nova) they should be on the borderline between the DI and DII play-offs. The second automatic spot will likely go to the winner of the week 9 game between San Mateo and Hillsdale with the loser being well positioned for an at-large berth.
Santa Teresa - Branham has beaten the two their two strongest league opponents and should coast to a 10-0 regular season record. The second automatic spot is still in play. This spot should come down the winner of the week 9 game between Willow Glen and Overfelt with the loser still positioned on the bubble for an at-large berth. However, the winner of this week's Leigh vs Silver Creek game will still only have one league loss heading into the final two weeks and will be in contention as well.
El Camino - This league race is still up in the air with Sratoga, Gunn and Homestead all having one league loss. Saratoga is favored for one of the spots with the second spot likely to be determined between Homestead and Gunn. Gunn would still have a chance for an at-large berth with a loss.
Cyprus - Only one automatic spot available here in this competitive league. Santa Cruz is the league's only undefeated team but has a CalPrep rating below one loss Gonzales and Soquel which are still on their schedule. North Monterey County also only has one loss after being upset by Santa Cruz. The second place team will be on the bubble for an at-large spot.
C Leagues
PAL-Lake - Mills is a prohibitive favorite to be this leagues play-off representative having beat the second strongest team in the league Jefferson.
Santa Lucia - Pacific Grove should coast to a league championship having dispensed with Stevenson this week.
West Valley - Mt. Pleasant is the league's lone undefeated team and only has to navigate one loss Lick to secure the league championship.
Unfortunately my gut, and the numbers seem to support it, says the new equity is to allow under performing top tier teams to compete in D4 and D5, where if successful in the CCS Playoffs, would lead to playing enrollment based schools in Norcal and State Competition. It would be a shame to see an 8-2 B Division team at home, while a 3-7 A Division team plays in D5.
Hopefully the PCAL fixes the erroneous B Division allocations for Mission(3) and Cypress(1) and returns to the CCS guidelines of 2 per B Division. Last season Soledad got in at 3-7, while 3 other Cypress Teams had better records.
This season the Cypress actually outperformed the Mission on the field. And is almost guaranteed to have Gonzales watching Soledad in the playoffs, despite a better record and a head to head win.
This season the Cypress actually outperformed the Mission on the field. And is almost guaranteed to have Gonzales watching Soledad in the playoffs, despite a better record and a head to head win.
Would a 4 win eligibility requirement for playoffs ever be considered by CCS? Maybe not the most poplar opinion here but It’s tough to see 3 win teams advance to post season play.
Neither the NorCal, nor state playoff divisions are enrollment-based.
Teams can elect to move up to the Mission at the end-of-year meeting. Everyone knows the rules. If someone chooses to stay put in the Cypress, then they know they're vying for one playoff post in exchange for an easier league schedule.
Top to bottom? Gonzales beat Soledad and beat North Salinas. Soledad is currently in 3rd place in Mission and played MVC very close. North county beat soquel and soquel beat Gonzales. I would say both those leagues are pretty even. With the exception of a healthy seaside.
I agree with Speedcity51, the current system should stay the way it is and I believe the Mission(B+) is equivalent to the Mt. Hamilton(A). Each head coach has the option to move up a league should he want to. The automatic qualifier distribution was voted on by head coaches who all agreed the mission would be a (B+) and the cypress would be a (B-). I think we should wait out for the regular season to end to see if the two leagues are even or not. I believe Alisal beat Gonzales and I wouldn't put too much on the Gonzo vs Soledad game. Rivalry games can go either way. Although Soledad is currently in the top 3, this may not be the case as the season progresses.
Having watched Calpreps rankings closely I have noticed a few problems with their system. This would largely be an academic issue, but since the CCS is relying on the rankings as of 10 AM on the Sunday following the season this issues may have an impact on which teams are selected for the play-offs and/or what divisions and seeds are given to teams. I have noticed three issues over the past few weeks.
1) There are a few scores that are reported incorrectly and often take a few days for corrections to be made. For example, last week the Serra-Mitty game was originally recorded by Calpreps to be 41-21. On Sunday afternoon they finally made the adjustment to the actual score of 35-29. This small change boosted Mitty two positions in the section rankings which is worth two points (and two other teams lost points by moving down in the rankings. These small change moved seedings and divisions for three teams.
2) For some unexplained reason there is some adjustment Calpreps makes midweek to their rankings. For example, As of Monday last week Menlo-Atherton was ranked 3rd in CCS and 79th in the state. Wilcox was ranked fourth in the CCS and 80th in the state. For some reason midweek this was reversed with Wilocx being third and 79th and MA being 4th and 80th. Again Wilcox gained a point and MA lost a point from this change.
3) There is something very strange in this weeks rankings. Going into this week Sacred Heart Prep was ranked #10 in CCS and #143 in the state and had a Calprep rating of 26.2. They played Kings Academy who was ranked #11 in CCS and about 160 in the state with a Calprep rating of 22.3. Calpreps projected a 28-17 SHP win. The result of the game was SHP won 24-9.
In Calpreps today this result has dropped Kings Academy's ranking from 22.3 to 20.2 and dropped them from #11 in the section to #12 which is somewhat expected. The part that I can't explain or understand is that SHP's ranking after the win dropped from 26.2 to 19.5 and their section ranking went from #10 to #13 (behind Kings Academy who they beat by 15 points). They also dropped behind Salinas who was idle and Palma who recorded an as expected 44-16 win over Alverez (Calpreps projection was 38-14). Nothing unusual occurred among SHP's prior opponents (SI is still ranked #5 in CCS, HMB dropped a touch from #7 to #9 after their win against Sequoia, MA who is #4 won as expected, etc. As you might guess I have a lot of experience with statistics and data models and have a note into Calpreps to understand this. Maybe this week is a mistake and they will correct it or maybe they had a prior mistake that they corrected this week - but SHP has been ranked pretty much the same for the past few weeks.
Again the concern is that the CCS will be utilizing Calpreps heavily for its play-off decision making and seeding process
1) There are a few scores that are reported incorrectly and often take a few days for corrections to be made. For example, last week the Serra-Mitty game was originally recorded by Calpreps to be 41-21. On Sunday afternoon they finally made the adjustment to the actual score of 35-29. This small change boosted Mitty two positions in the section rankings which is worth two points (and two other teams lost points by moving down in the rankings. These small change moved seedings and divisions for three teams.
2) For some unexplained reason there is some adjustment Calpreps makes midweek to their rankings. For example, As of Monday last week Menlo-Atherton was ranked 3rd in CCS and 79th in the state. Wilcox was ranked fourth in the CCS and 80th in the state. For some reason midweek this was reversed with Wilocx being third and 79th and MA being 4th and 80th. Again Wilcox gained a point and MA lost a point from this change.
3) There is something very strange in this weeks rankings. Going into this week Sacred Heart Prep was ranked #10 in CCS and #143 in the state and had a Calprep rating of 26.2. They played Kings Academy who was ranked #11 in CCS and about 160 in the state with a Calprep rating of 22.3. Calpreps projected a 28-17 SHP win. The result of the game was SHP won 24-9.
In Calpreps today this result has dropped Kings Academy's ranking from 22.3 to 20.2 and dropped them from #11 in the section to #12 which is somewhat expected. The part that I can't explain or understand is that SHP's ranking after the win dropped from 26.2 to 19.5 and their section ranking went from #10 to #13 (behind Kings Academy who they beat by 15 points). They also dropped behind Salinas who was idle and Palma who recorded an as expected 44-16 win over Alverez (Calpreps projection was 38-14). Nothing unusual occurred among SHP's prior opponents (SI is still ranked #5 in CCS, HMB dropped a touch from #7 to #9 after their win against Sequoia, MA who is #4 won as expected, etc. As you might guess I have a lot of experience with statistics and data models and have a note into Calpreps to understand this. Maybe this week is a mistake and they will correct it or maybe they had a prior mistake that they corrected this week - but SHP has been ranked pretty much the same for the past few weeks.
Again the concern is that the CCS will be utilizing Calpreps heavily for its play-off decision making and seeding process
Top 10 after week 9 (Including Saturday results)
School CCS Rank (last week rank) Norcal Rank State Rank
Serra 1 (1) 3 15
Valley Christian 2 (2) 4 25
Menlo-Atherton 3 (3) 17 80
Saint Ignatius 4 (5) 18 87
Wilcox 5 (4) 19 90
Mitty 6 (8) 24 98
St. Francis 7 (7) 40 133
Los Gatos 8 (9) 45 140
Half Moon Bay 9 (6) 48 160
Salinas 10 (nr) 55 176
Dropped out: Sacred Heart Prep 13 (10)
Top 5 were unchanged. Mitty moved to 6 after beating 7th ranked St. Francis. Los Gatos moved from 9 to 8 with a good win over Palo Alto. HMB dropped from 6 to 9 in the CCS rankings after a 42-13 win over Sequoia. HMB dropped from 32 to 48 in Norcal from this result and from 115 in the state to 160. Salinas jumped up from #12 to #10 as they had a forfeit win over Gilroy this week. SHP dropped out of the top 10 despite beating undefeated and #11 ranked Kings Academy 24-9 (see note in above post) and saw their norcal ranking go from 45 to 73 and state ranking drop from 143 to 221.
DI
8. Los Gatos 9-1 65 at 1. Serra 10-0 88.5
5. Saint Ignatius 7-3 70 at 4. Wilcox 8-2 70.5
6. St. Francis 4-6 68 at 3. Menlo-Atherton 7-3 72.8
7. Mitty 6-4 67.5 at 2. Valley Christian 9-1 79
Changes here were that Mitty moved from the top seed in Division II to the 7 seed in DI and HMB dropped from the 8 seed to DII. MA and Wilcox switched places this week.
DII
8. Live Oak 9-1 53 at 1. Salinas 9-1 63
5. Bellarmine 3-7 57 at 4. Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 58
6. Palo Alto 7-3 56 at 3. Palma 8-2 59
7. Kings Academy 8-2 56 at 2. Half Moon Bay 10-0 59.5
Live Oak moved up from DIII and replaced San Benito as the # 8 seed. HMB dropped down from D1. Other six teams all moved seeds.
DIII
8. Hillsdale 8-2 41.5 at 1. Branham 10-0 50.5
5. Aptos 5-5 46 at 4. San Benito 5-5 46
6. Carmel 6-4 43.5 at 3. Mountain View 7-3 47.5
7. Monte Vista Christian 8-1 43.3 at 2. Oak Grove 8-2 50
Monte Vista Christian ad Carmel moved into DIII from DIV and Seaside and Leland moved down.
DIV
8. Overfelt 7-3 31.5 at 1. Soquel 9-1 39.3
5. Seaside 8-2 35 at 4.San Mateo 8-2 35.5
6. Saratoga 8-2 34 at 3. Leland 6-4 39
7. Milpitas 3-7 33.3 at 2. Terra Nova 5-5 39
Burlingame dropped out completely as they lost 2 bonus points from SHP and HMB who dropped out of the top 150. Overfelt moved up from DV to DIV.
Division V
8, Mount Pleasant 7-3 18 at 1.Willow Glen 7-3 28.5
5. Soledad 6-4 24.8 at 4 Gunn 9-1 26.5
6. Santa Teresa 4-6 22 at 3. North Monterey County 8-2 27.8
7. Pacific Grove 6-4 20.3 at 2. Mills 9-1 28
NMC moved back into the field as an at-large.
School CCS Rank (last week rank) Norcal Rank State Rank
Serra 1 (1) 3 15
Valley Christian 2 (2) 4 25
Menlo-Atherton 3 (3) 17 80
Saint Ignatius 4 (5) 18 87
Wilcox 5 (4) 19 90
Mitty 6 (8) 24 98
St. Francis 7 (7) 40 133
Los Gatos 8 (9) 45 140
Half Moon Bay 9 (6) 48 160
Salinas 10 (nr) 55 176
Dropped out: Sacred Heart Prep 13 (10)
Top 5 were unchanged. Mitty moved to 6 after beating 7th ranked St. Francis. Los Gatos moved from 9 to 8 with a good win over Palo Alto. HMB dropped from 6 to 9 in the CCS rankings after a 42-13 win over Sequoia. HMB dropped from 32 to 48 in Norcal from this result and from 115 in the state to 160. Salinas jumped up from #12 to #10 as they had a forfeit win over Gilroy this week. SHP dropped out of the top 10 despite beating undefeated and #11 ranked Kings Academy 24-9 (see note in above post) and saw their norcal ranking go from 45 to 73 and state ranking drop from 143 to 221.
DI
8. Los Gatos 9-1 65 at 1. Serra 10-0 88.5
5. Saint Ignatius 7-3 70 at 4. Wilcox 8-2 70.5
6. St. Francis 4-6 68 at 3. Menlo-Atherton 7-3 72.8
7. Mitty 6-4 67.5 at 2. Valley Christian 9-1 79
Changes here were that Mitty moved from the top seed in Division II to the 7 seed in DI and HMB dropped from the 8 seed to DII. MA and Wilcox switched places this week.
DII
8. Live Oak 9-1 53 at 1. Salinas 9-1 63
5. Bellarmine 3-7 57 at 4. Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 58
6. Palo Alto 7-3 56 at 3. Palma 8-2 59
7. Kings Academy 8-2 56 at 2. Half Moon Bay 10-0 59.5
Live Oak moved up from DIII and replaced San Benito as the # 8 seed. HMB dropped down from D1. Other six teams all moved seeds.
DIII
8. Hillsdale 8-2 41.5 at 1. Branham 10-0 50.5
5. Aptos 5-5 46 at 4. San Benito 5-5 46
6. Carmel 6-4 43.5 at 3. Mountain View 7-3 47.5
7. Monte Vista Christian 8-1 43.3 at 2. Oak Grove 8-2 50
Monte Vista Christian ad Carmel moved into DIII from DIV and Seaside and Leland moved down.
DIV
8. Overfelt 7-3 31.5 at 1. Soquel 9-1 39.3
5. Seaside 8-2 35 at 4.San Mateo 8-2 35.5
6. Saratoga 8-2 34 at 3. Leland 6-4 39
7. Milpitas 3-7 33.3 at 2. Terra Nova 5-5 39
Burlingame dropped out completely as they lost 2 bonus points from SHP and HMB who dropped out of the top 150. Overfelt moved up from DV to DIV.
Division V
8, Mount Pleasant 7-3 18 at 1.Willow Glen 7-3 28.5
5. Soledad 6-4 24.8 at 4 Gunn 9-1 26.5
6. Santa Teresa 4-6 22 at 3. North Monterey County 8-2 27.8
7. Pacific Grove 6-4 20.3 at 2. Mills 9-1 28
NMC moved back into the field as an at-large.
Last edited:
Carmel beat San Benito 41 to 14 this afternoon. Be interesting to see how that changes things.
1. Yes, I noticed the same error, but those aren’t especially common.
2. The final weekly adjustment is made on Tuesday, which is also typically when they publish their predictions. It would be interesting to determine if the CCS (and SJS, for that matter) are paying money to Calpreps for utilizing their system. If so, there may be more of a concerted effort to make sure everything is ready sooner.
3. This may be another mid-week adjustment. Odd that they dropped behind TKA after beating them. I think this will get adjusted.
With Santa Cruz being the only undefeated team in league play for the Cypress division how come they aren’t in this projection?
A very fair question. The Cypress League only gets one automatic berth. Santa Cruz plays at Soquel this week. The winner of this game will get the automatic berth regardless of what happens in week 10. Soquel will be favored by about a touchdown and that is why i have them in the projected play-offs. If Santa Cruz losses and then wins in the final week they will be on the bubble for an at-large berth. In the projection I ran this week they were the 8th ranked at-large team and only the top seven make the field.
The top 2 at-large teams will be the WCAL 5th and 6th place teams (projected to be St. Francis and Bellamrine), The third at-large team will be the 5th place Gabilan team - likely to be Aptos. The fourth at-large slot will likely be the third place team in the ocean division which will be the loser of the San Mateo Hillsdale game this week. the fifth at-large will go to Milpitas who will finish 5th in the Deanaza. The race for the last two at-large spots is incredibly close between North Monterey County, Willow Glen and Santa Cruz. When I ran this earlier today it was NMC 25.8, Willow Glen 25.5 and Santa Cruz 25.33 assuming NMC goes 2-0, Willow Glen 1-1 and Santa Cruz 1-1 in the last two weeks.
How come Burlingame is not in the mix? They don’t have a chance for an at-large birth if they beat San Mateo?
A Mitty win over SI would not create a big shift. They would likely switch places in DI seeding with Mitty going from the 7 seed to the 5 and SI going from the 5 seed to the 6 or 7 seed. I projected an SI win (Calpreps projects SI to win by 7). So If Mitty wins Mitty would gain 2 points from what I projected and SI would lose two points. The additional point shift would come their CCS rank. SI is currently 4th and Mitty is currently 6th - so it is reasonable to expect they might switch places and lead to another 2 point gain for Mitty and a 2 point loss for SI. Finally, the loser of this game is likely to drop from the top 100 teams in CA so the winner will lose a bonus point.
I have Burlingame currently at 17.5 which is not enough to be one of the top 10 teams for a wild card. If Burlingame beats San Mateo (with their rankings today San Mateo will be a slight favorite) they will climb to 19.5 points and would likely be one of the top 10 teams considered for the 7 at large berths and would be on the bubble for one of the final spots.
Trying to get some clarification: on points: Say a team trying to get "on the bubble" plays a top 150 or top 100 team. They beat that team. Do they get points based on the ranking before that game or after? Obviously that ranking drops significantly with a loss. Would it possibly be calculated at the section meeting, so after the fact?
PAL Booster,
Awesome work as always. I have a question though. How is Mills projected to have 28 power points? I'm trying to add up the math for them and cannot get anywhere near 28. This is huge because I've seen them ranked as high as #1 in Division V and as low as #8 in Division IV which is going to be a gauntlet!
9 wins x 2 = 18
3 games vs. "B" League opponents = 1.5
Add 1.5 points for being "C" league Champion = 1.5
I'm seeing 21 points, best case scenario.
Awesome work as always. I have a question though. How is Mills projected to have 28 power points? I'm trying to add up the math for them and cannot get anywhere near 28. This is huge because I've seen them ranked as high as #1 in Division V and as low as #8 in Division IV which is going to be a gauntlet!
9 wins x 2 = 18
3 games vs. "B" League opponents = 1.5
Add 1.5 points for being "C" league Champion = 1.5
I'm seeing 21 points, best case scenario.
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