OPEN IMPLICATIONS......and preseason games....

[northbaybbguru]

in the other thread Sjbasket asked about big time preseason games in norcal.

So it occurred to me to start the OPEN prognosticating...and what preseason games could have an effect on who goes.

there are 8 teams that qualify for the OPEN with no more than 4 coming from any section.

PLUS there has been speculation that the CENTRAL SECTION may be included in the NOR CAL this upcoming year...which then means that Clovis West could crash the NOR CAL OPEN party.
But as of today I am assuming that is not happening. So based on that....

this is how I see it....

SJS

SMS
Sac
McClatchey
Vanden
Oakridge

I REALLY like McClatchey and they are my surprise team to watch out for.

at least 2 teams should/will/need to be chosen from the SJS.

and assuming 2 are chosen that makes for some interesting discussions in the NCS and CCS.


NCS

CLET
ODOWD
MIRAMONTE
SALESIAN
SMB
CN

I see only 3 will be chosen.....makes for some interesting sections and some interesting arguments depending on who wins each section.

If CLET, MM, ODOWD/SALESIAN and CN win their respective sections ....who are the 3???

and why do I ONLY say 3 will be chosen????


because in the CCS....

MITTY
PINEWOOD
SHC
MENLO-ATHERTON
EASTSIDE PREP

I personally believe the top 3 will be MITTY,PINEWOOD AND SHC (in no particular order) and
how do you NOT send all 3???



2 from the SJS
3 from the NCS
3 from the CCS


and now we get into some of the big preseason games....


as a CN fan I see as possible OPEN type qualifiers and possible play in type games for CN that definitely will come into play at OPEN seeding time.


12/9 EASTSIDE PREP vs CN at the Laney Shootout.
12/10 OAKRIDGE vs CN at the Laney Shootout
12/17 SHC vs CN at the Presentation Shootout.
12/28,29,30 WCJ..... CN could see SALESIAN and/or CLet

1/21 @SMS


as CLAYK has said over and over on NCP......you play a schedule like this to leave no doubt in the seeding's committee minds....

YOU EITHER PLAY YOURSELF IN...OR YOU PLAY YOURSELF OUT....


***I would like to see some breakdowns on the other OPEN potential teams schedules
and what big games they play that could determine whether they go OPEN or not.

 

[ClayK]

A very interesting topic, and one that a lot of coaches are thinking about. My take, and again I'm an assistant at Miramonte this year ...

Sac Joaquin

The strongest section, it seems to me, and I would think three or four teams will come from there.

Whoever wins Division I is automatic, I think, and since McClatchy will very likely join SMS and Oak Ridge there, I think both finalists will go.

I also think the winner of Division II, likely Sacramento or Vanden (depending on the goofy process for slotting teams in posteason) will go, and maybe the D-III winner as well.

Central Coast

I'm not sure (I will call to check at some point) that the top two Open finishers are locks but that CCS will not send a third team. If that's incorrect, then three teams are likely to go.

North Coast

Assuming Carondelet wins D-I, the Cougars are a lock. D-III has O'Dowd, Salesian, Campolindo and SMB, so it would certainly make sense for the D-III winner to go. Cardinal Newman should win D-IV and with a senior-dominated team, this would be the year for Open. I'm optimistic about Miramonte (I better be) and we could conceivably win D-II.

Let's say Carondelet and Salesian win D-I and D-III, with Salesian beating O'Dowd in the D-III final. Further, let's assume Miramonte takes D-II and CN takes D-IV.

So would O'Dowd, as a runner-up, automatically drop out even if the Dragons were the highest rated team left? Would Newman go ahead of Miramonte?

I don't see four NCS teams moving on, though I guess it's possible. Two sections will get three teams, I think, and one will get two. Obviously, no one wants to be the seventh or eighth seed in the Open, so until or unless CIF does something to make participation in the Open, regardless of outcome, more prestigious than winning a state Division title, the battle to stay out of the Open is a lot more important than the battle to get in.

 

[colhenrylives]

For M-A, this will be their best overall talent (a tremendous, prime-time transfer is now in the mix) in at least 25 years, since the days of Chi Johnson, etc. Let's hope their schedule is a big upgrade from last season.

 

[Sjbasket]

Who is this mystery prime time transfer?

 

[Sjbasket]

Would that be former Pinewood player Stella Kailahi?

 

[northbaybbguru]

A very interesting topic, and one that a lot of coaches are thinking about. My take, and again I'm an assistant at Miramonte this year ...

Sac Joaquin

The strongest section, it seems to me, and I would think three or four teams will come from there.

Whoever wins Division I is automatic, I think, and since McClatchy will very likely join SMS and Oak Ridge there, I think both finalists will go.

I also think the winner of Division II, likely Sacramento or Vanden (depending on the goofy process for slotting teams in posteason) will go, and maybe the D-III winner as well.

Central Coast

I'm not sure (I will call to check at some point) that the top two Open finishers are locks but that CCS will not send a third team. If that's incorrect, then three teams are likely to go.

North Coast

Assuming Carondelet wins D-I, the Cougars are a lock. D-III has O'Dowd, Salesian, Campolindo and SMB, so it would certainly make sense for the D-III winner to go. Cardinal Newman should win D-IV and with a senior-dominated team, this would be the year for Open. I'm optimistic about Miramonte (I better be) and we could conceivably win D-II.

Let's say Carondelet and Salesian win D-I and D-III, with Salesian beating O'Dowd in the D-III final. Further, let's assume Miramonte takes D-II and CN takes D-IV.

So would O'Dowd, as a runner-up, automatically drop out even if the Dragons were the highest rated team left? Would Newman go ahead of Miramonte?

I don't see four NCS teams moving on, though I guess it's possible. Two sections will get three teams, I think, and one will get two. Obviously, no one wants to be the seventh or eighth seed in the Open, so until or unless CIF does something to make participation in the Open, regardless of outcome, more prestigious than winning a state Division title, the battle to stay out of the Open is a lot more important than the battle to get in.

Is Odowd still in D3? I thought they got bumped up to D2.
If that's the case NCS D3 is absolutely loaded. And the winner is a lock for the OPEN.
That also makes for an easy D2 section championship for Miramonte IMO. Being that MM was the state open runner up last year I have to believe that will get a serious look at the OPEN again. I agree that CLET is a lock if they win D1. And with CN a heavy favorite in D4, they will get a serious look also. I personally think 3 will come out of the NCS.

2 yrs ago SI lost early in the CCS OPEN sections and still went OPEN. SHC, Pinewood and SI went that year. So there can be more than 2 taken from the CCS. 2 are obviously locks, 3 are probable this year IMO.

I honestly think only 2 are coming out of the SJS. I disagree with CLAYK, I personally think the SJS is the weakest of the sections this year.

 

[ClayK]

O'Dowd is D3 because of the one year they played too many games and didn't qualify for postseason.

Since Miramonte lost the national Player of the Year and three other Division I players, I don't think it's fair to judge this year's team by last year's results. Look at Long Beach Poly boys -- they were D2 last year, despite having 4,500 students and a great tradition.

McClatchy, Oak Ridge and SMS are all very strong, and I left Elk Grove (played in the state title game) out. They have all their firepower back too ...

 

[colhenrylives]

Would that be former Pinewood player Stella Kailahi?

yes

 

[Sjbasket]

Assuming fully healthy again from knee injury a year ago? She was a solid player while at Pinewood. Why the transfer? She would have really been something in Run and Gun volume 2 at Pinewood. That would be a good match up M-A vs Pinewood. Do you think M-A could keep up with Docs style of play?

 

[Paytc]

O'Dowd is D3 because of the one year they played too many games and didn't qualify for postseason.

Since Miramonte lost the national Player of the Year and three other Division I players, I don't think it's fair to judge this year's team by last year's results. Look at Long Beach Poly boys -- they were D2 last year, despite having 4,500 students and a great tradition.

McClatchy, Oak Ridge and SMS are all very strong, and I left Elk Grove (played in the state title game) out. They have all their firepower back too ...

Hey..... Miramonte still has two powerhouse coaches and a few championship experienced players. So I think Miramonte should be included in the open as prey for those they once preyed upon.

Or perhaps they can miss the open and get a D2 state championship? It should be interesting.....

 

[letsski]

Assuming fully healthy again from knee injury a year ago? She was a solid player while at Pinewood. Why the transfer? She would have really been something in Run and Gun volume 2 at Pinewood. That would be a good match up M-A vs Pinewood. Do you think M-A could keep up with Docs style of play?

Based on how she played this summer, she is fully recovered from her injury. She, along with her sister gives MA some great talent, easily the deepest in the PAL. Only question will be overall team speed, especially once CCS playoffs roll around. SHC, Eastside, Pinewood and of course Mitty all bring uptempo game plan that MA may have a hard time dealing with.

 

[cptmycpa]

O'Dowd is D3 because of the one year they played too many games and didn't qualify for postseason.

Since Miramonte lost the national Player of the Year and three other Division I players, I don't think it's fair to judge this year's team by last year's results. Look at Long Beach Poly boys -- they were D2 last year, despite having 4,500 students and a great tradition.

McClatchy, Oak Ridge and SMS are all very strong, and I left Elk Grove (played in the state title game) out. They have all their firepower back too ...

Clay,
I agree with you that McClatchy, Oak Ridge and SMS should be very strong this coming season, along with Elk Grove and Antelope in the Sac-Joaquin Section, but if the SJS playoff selection committee relies only on MaxPreps rankings to make their playoff seedings in D1 girls, like they did last year, then McClatchy (seeded 6th last year in SJS D1) could end up playing Oak Ridge in the second round of the section playoffs, and the loser does not advance (like last year), despite the fact that McClatchy beat both eventual CIF State champions Cardinal Newman and Sacred Heart Cathedral last year on neutral courts. The SJS does weird things that don't seem to benefit the representation of their section teams. Other sections seem to do a better job representing and promoting their section teams.

 

[colhenrylives]

Based on how she played this summer, she is fully recovered from her injury. She, along with her sister gives MA some great talent, easily the deepest in the PAL. Only question will be overall team speed, especially once CCS playoffs roll around. SHC, Eastside, Pinewood and of course Mitty all bring uptempo game plan that MA may have a hard time dealing with.

Once NorCal tourney begins, M-A likely will not be in the Open Division. They could do some damage in their enrollment bracket (I or II).

 

[Sjbasket]

Just wondering, if this is M-A best talent in 25 years and they get a prime time transfer and they go undefeated in their conference shouldn't they be an open team? Then again, I'm not sure what their preseason schedule is like.

 

[RespectBBGame]

1) Mitry
2) Salesian
3) McClatchy
4) Carondelet
5) BOD
6) Vanden
7) SHC
8) SMS

This my opinion over what I seen all summer!!!!

 

[Paytc]

1) Mitry
2) Salesian
3) McClatchy
4) Carondelet
5) BOD
6) Vanden
7) SHC
8) SMS

This my opinion over what I seen all summer!!!!

I think it's fair to say those are good teams. But you left Pinewood out and they should be good as well. Then how will Inderkum,Sacramento, West Campus, Lincoln, and CN all be this season? And will Clovis West be included as Clay say could possibly happen this season? And of course we are leaving off a few other good teams. I guess time will tell better than anything else.

 

[ClayK]

I think the chances of Clovis West being moved north are pretty small this year ... especially given the fact there are plenty of candidates.

I like Respect's list, but lots could happen that would move some of Paytc's in ...

I also think Oak Ridge is going to be very, very good. The transfer from Minnesota is the real deal.

 

[Paytc]

I think the chances of Clovis West being moved north are pretty small this year ... especially given the fact there are plenty of candidates.

I like Respect's list, but lots could happen that would move some of Paytc's in ...

I also think Oak Ridge is going to be very, very good. The transfer from Minnesota is the real deal.

Transfer from Minnesota ! What is this professional basketball? I guess other teams should be recruiting from outside the area too. LOL..........

 

[RespectBBGame]

Paytc

Those others are good but won't make the open. It seems the CIF lets Pinewood win a State Champion even other year. As far as the other teams don't have enough depth on the bench to make a difference. Lincoln has 2 stars but give up to rebounds and game. Sac High is a wild bunch young ladies that seem like they can't never get over the hump of winning big games. CN will be given a chance to defend their title. Inderkum won't make out the second round of SMS playoffs.

 

[ClayK]

The family moved from Minnesota because, as I understand, the father got a new job. But people do wind up checking out the local high schools before they decide on exactly where to live ...

 

[RespectBBGame]

That's not as bad as someone give a family and apartment so they can attend a certain high school. Yes to whom want to know not much gets by me that I don't know.

 

[Paytc]

That's not as bad as someone give a family and apartment so they can attend a certain high school. Yes to whom want to know not much gets by me that I don't know.

Your funny ! But you do know the game it appears at all levels. You may be dead on with your response to the teams I mentioned. But I'm sure I left off at least 5 to as many as 10 teams that may also be on the bubble.

 

[Paytc]

The family moved from Minnesota because, as I understand, the father got a new job. But people do wind up checking out the local high schools before they decide on exactly where to live ...

I'm sure, it wouldn't be wise to not research a little about what type of situation your going into.

And I was just kidding about recruiting from out of state. I'm not sure much if any of that happens. If so I see no problem with children trying to put themselves in good fits for themselves.

 

[jazzpt55]

Anybody going to Honolulu Dec 7-9th for the Iolani Tournament?
Mitty, Salesian, Clovis West and Long Beach Poly....

I have family in Honolulu....
I was thinking about going...

 

[Paytc]

Anybody going to Honolulu Dec 7-9th for the Iolani Tournament?
Mitty, Salesian, Clovis West and Long Beach Poly....

I have family in Honolulu....
I was thinking about going...

I won't make it, but it should be interesting to see who comes out on top of that one. All four teams you mentioned should be capable of winning it. And there is usually a local team or two that is determined to win it all too. If you have family and the time and money you should go. The basketball should be the icing on the cake.

 

[Sjbasket]

Jazz, you seem to be in the know regarding LBP. How was Ayanna and Jasmines summer? Is the supporting cast around them to make a run?

It appear Clovis returns quite a bit of experience. Will they avenge their season end loss to LBP?

Was the loss of Minyon Moore too big for Salesian to overcome this season?

 

[Paytc]

Jazz, you seem to be in the know regarding LBP. How was Ayanna and Jasmines summer? Is the supporting cast around them to make a run?

It appear Clovis returns quite a bit of experience. Will they avenge their season end loss to LBP?

Was the loss of Minyon Moore too big for Salesian to overcome this season?

Sjbasket,

The LBP question I'll leave for Jazz. I will give my two cents on the loss of Minyon Moore which was super big.

However...... I thought losing Mariya Moore and the other senior guard they loss that year would sink Salesian the next year. But I think the Salesian coaching staff has to be given credit for continuing to prepare and motivate that team each and every season. I think it is fair to say no team is better without the Moore sisters. Or the Bulls or the Lakers without Mike and Kobe. But that doesn't mean they can't still rise up and be the best or at least one of the best teams around afterwards. And not to compare girls which isn't fair IMO anyway, But the pickup of Sierra Smith a championship experienced senior should provide pretty good floor leadership. Will the coach have to change the way they attack teams when the personal changes????? Isn't that really what coaching is all about?

Salesian IMO should be a very capable team. Capable of playing with any team in the state provided they stay healthy.

 

[Paytc]

Assuming fully healthy again from knee injury a year ago? She was a solid player while at Pinewood. Why the transfer? She would have really been something in Run and Gun volume 2 at Pinewood. That would be a good match up M-A vs Pinewood. Do you think M-A could keep up with Docs style of play?

Who is coaching M-A ? I think a lot will come down to who is preparing the game plan and making the game time adjustments. I think Doc has proven he is one of the top coaches around these parts. Perhaps M-A has a comparable coach? That I don't know off hand, and haven't taken the time out to check.

 

[Sjbasket]

In regards to Salesian. I also forgot to mention the graduation of Jordan Hobson. Sierra Smith is great add and having 6'5" post doesn't hurt either. The thing I remember last year was an extremely aggressive man to man full court defense. It really propelled them deep in the playoffs, but going in to the Miramonte game it probably physically wore them out. You are correct the coaching staff will probably mold the talent they have in to a state challenger. Good match would be Salesian 6'5" post against CN front line.

 

[Paytc]

In regards to Salesian. I also forgot to mention the graduation of Jordan Hobson. Sierra Smith is great add and having 6'5" post doesn't hurt either. The thing I remember last year was an extremely aggressive man to man full court defense. It really propelled them deep in the playoffs, but going in to the Miramonte game it probably physically wore them out. You are correct the coaching staff will probably mold the talent they have in to a state challenger. Good match would be Salesian 6'5" post against CN front line.

Yes but I think Salesian would wear CN down and by the second half run away with them. Unless CN used a game plan and adjustments that turned the game into more of a half court slower pace game. Or something else, not to give away all my coaching tips..... Even then I think Angel Jackson might control the boards and paint over CN even with their two to one 6 plus footer advantage. But both teams should be pretty good. And you know what I always say..... any good team can upset or beat another good team. Pinewood proved the point last season. But Doc put together the perfect game plan and must have adjusted well to Tom's halftime adjustments, if any were made.

 

[letsski]

Who is coaching M-A ? I think a lot welcome down to who is preparing the game plan and making the game time adjustments. I think Doc has proven he is one of the top coaches around these parts. Perhaps M-A has a comparable coach? That I don't know off hand, and haven't taken the time out to check.

Their coach is Markesha Coleman, former Stanford player. I believe this is her third year there and has done a very nice job.

 

[northbaybbguru]

Yes but I think Salesian would wear CN down and by the second half run away with them. Unless CN used a game plan and adjustments that turned the game into more of a half court slower pace game. Or something else, not to give away all my coaching tips..... Even then I think Angel Jackson might control the boards and paint over CN even with their two to one 6 plus footer advantage. But both teams should be pretty good. And you know what I always say..... any good team can upset or beat another good team. Pinewood proved the point last season. But Doc put together the perfect game plan and must have adjusted well to Tom's halftime adjustments, if any were made.

you coaching secrets are a real stretch Paytc...YEESH

of course CN isn't going to get into a running game with Salesian and try to outscore/outrun them .... BIG surprise there.
have you ever watched CN play? if you have you would know they will try to get them into a halfcourt game. CAUSE THATS HOW CN PLAYS......

2 yrs ago they did just that and had Salesian on the ropes before being outscored 5-0 in the last 1:30 of the game to lose on a heartbreaker putback at the buzzer.

last year MINYON MOORE got loose and BEASTED CN (they had no answer for her)....AND Salesian was the more mature battle tested team. Not so this year, CN actually the more mature team now. And with no 1 woman wrecking crew player like Moore...the game would be a battle. I don't see Salesian running away with anything.

 

[Paytc]

you coaching secrets are a real stretch Paytc...YEESH

of course CN isn't going to get into a running game with Salesian and try to outscore/outrun them .... BIG surprise there.
have you ever watched CN play? if you have you would know they will try to get them into a halfcourt game. CAUSE THATS HOW CN PLAYS......

2 yrs ago they did just that and had Salesian on the ropes before being outscored 5-0 in the last 1:30 of the game to lose on a heartbreaker putback at the buzzer.

last year MINYON MOORE got loose and BEASTED CN (they had no answer for her)....AND Salesian was the more mature battle tested team. Not so this year, CN actually the more mature team now. And with no 1 woman wrecking crew player like Moore...the game would be a battle. I don't see Salesian running away with anything.

True because a good coach knows how to coach so there are not many secrets. However there are some lame coaches out there like it or not it is true. There are also some good ones.

Hey I was just expressing my opinion. I have seen both CN and Salesian play. And even if you want to play a certain style some teams and some coaches force you into playing their tempo. Unless of course the refs call things tight or loose which could also change how a game is played.

I also said any good team can beat another good team. I wouldn't be totally surprised if CN beat Salesian. But I stand by my thought that Salesian would probably run away with them after wearing them down. Could I be wrong? Of course. But that is my opinion.

 

[mkbgdns]

[QUOTE="Paytc, post: 141872, member: 2012" I think Miramonte should be included in the open as prey for those they once preyed upon.[/QUOTE]

It's in the kids' best interest if we frame the Open as an honor, not a punishment. The Open's here to stay.

 

[colhenrylives]

Just wondering, if this is M-A best talent in 25 years and they get a prime time transfer and they go undefeated in their conference shouldn't they be an open team? Then again, I'm not sure what their preseason schedule is like.

It will likely be Open during CCS playoffs, enrollment-based bracket in NorCals. Pinewood and Mitty are too tough. Just like 2016.

 

[ClayK]

One of the things that I think is often overlooked in coaching is the ability to impose tempo. Tom Gonzalves is a master at that, and intermittently, I've had success forcing teams to play faster than they really wanted.

In a game like Salesian versus Cardinal Newman, the deciding factor may be just that: who sets the tempo. Sometimes I think coaches don't communicate that necessity to their girls as well as they might, but it's really important, especially when you have teams with contrasting styles.

 

[Sjbasket]

Just a thought here, I really enjoy an uptempo fast transition game with teams that can not only deliver on the offensive end with great passing and finishes. I also admire teams that can pressure full court almost the entire game. It makes for action filled entertaining basketball. My only concern is that I notice teams that play this style over the course of time experience injuries or fatigue late in the season. This may have been the case with SMS and Salesian late last year. Case in point the Pinewood game(although Pinewood played awesome) and I saw Salesian play Mitty extremely aggressive and may have cost them in the Miramonte game.

I guess coaches do teach and prefer this style, but I guess balance is needed to make it through the season.

 

[Paytc]

[QUOTE="Paytc, post: 141872, member: 2012" I think Miramonte should be included in the open as prey for those they once preyed upon.

It's in the kids' best interest if we frame the Open as an honor, not a punishment. The Open's here to stay.[/QUOTE]


People mustn't take everything I say too seriously. I actually have always liked Miramonte, coaches and players. And I still like them. I agree it is and should be an honor to be one of the top 8 teams in the area, not a punishment. And hopefully 1-8 are just about all capable of pulling off the championship. That makes the games more exciting.

 

[Paytc]

Clay,

That is precisely one of the points I was trying to get across with regard to my personal belief that some coaches are game time coaches and some are only good at preparing a team before a game. Some will be able to make adjustments based on the players they have and the opponents they are playing. And you are not always able to play at the tempo you prefer to play at.

Brings me back to my point some coaches are better than others. Some let their ego, system, and/or lack of coaching ability get in the way of their success by not being willing or prepared to make game time adjustments.

 

[Paytc]

Just a thought here, I really enjoy an uptempo fast transition game with teams that can not only deliver on the offensive end with great passing and finishes. I also admire teams that can pressure full court almost the entire game. It makes for action filled entertaining basketball. My only concern is that I notice teams that play this style over the course of time experience injuries or fatigue late in the season. This may have been the case with SMS and Salesian late last year. Case in point the Pinewood game(although Pinewood played awesome) and I saw Salesian play Mitty extremely aggressive and may have cost them in the Miramonte game.

I guess coaches do teach and prefer this style, but I guess balance is needed to make it through the season.

Not sure about the fatigue factor in 14-17 year old kids that should be energetic enough to play the short number of quarters and minutes of a high school game. But I agree injuries can happen easier when players run at full speed all the time.