Open Predictions Seeding

[RespectBBGame]

1 ) Mitty
2) Carondelet
3) BOD
4) SMS
5) CN
6) Pinewood
7) McClatchy
8) MM

Pinewood should have had the 5 seed but with them is the 6 seed allows for items not to play their own divisions in the first round.

If this happens

Mitty beats MM
Carondelet up in the air with McClatchy because McClatchy is a Scrappy teams that might bother Carondelet guards.
BOD up in the air with Pinewood because if Pinewood gets hot for the 3's it over.
SMS beats CN

The NORCAL championship will be played in the second round Mitty vs SMS.

 

[colhenrylives]

1 ) Mitty
2) Carondelet
3) BOD
4) SMS
5) CN
6) Pinewood
7) McClatchy
8) MM

Pinewood should have had the 5 seed but with them is the 6 seed allows for items not to play their own divisions in the first round.

If this happens

Mitty beats MM
Carondelet up in the air with McClatchy because McClatchy is a Scrappy teams that might bother Carondelet guards.
BOD up in the air with Pinewood because if Pinewood gets hot for the 3's it over.
SMS beats CN

The NORCAL championship will be played in the second round Mitty vs SMS.

Bold stuff, sir. But thoughtful.

 

[jaymel911]

1 ) Mitty
2) Carondelet
3) BOD
4) SMS
5) CN
6) Pinewood
7) McClatchy
8) MM

Pinewood should have had the 5 seed but with them is the 6 seed allows for items not to play their own divisions in the first round.

If this happens

Mitty beats MM
Carondelet up in the air with McClatchy because McClatchy is a Scrappy teams that might bother Carondelet guards.
BOD up in the air with Pinewood because if Pinewood gets hot for the 3's it over.
SMS beats CN

The NORCAL championship will be played in the second round Mitty vs SMS.

Sacred Heart is in. what seed is the question.

 

[Paytc]

1 ) Mitty
2) Carondelet
3) BOD
4) SMS
5) CN
6) Pinewood
7) McClatchy
8) MM

Pinewood should have had the 5 seed but with them is the 6 seed allows for items not to play their own divisions in the first round.

If this happens

Mitty beats MM
Carondelet up in the air with McClatchy because McClatchy is a Scrappy teams that might bother Carondelet guards.
BOD up in the air with Pinewood because if Pinewood gets hot for the 3's it over.
SMS beats CN

The NORCAL championship will be played in the second round Mitty vs SMS.

RespectBBGame,

Here is my take on the open tell me what you think of it? Others can also chime in with opinions to........

1.Mitty
2.Carondelet
3.Bishop Odowd (If they beat Salesian today)
4.Pinewood
5.SMS (unless they lose to Mac today)
6.CN
7. MM, Mac or SHC (Mac in if they beat SMS)
8.Salesian (unless they lose to BOD)
9.MM (if Salesian loses to BOD, MM or SHC becomes #8)

I think our list are about the same 1-8 except.... where would you put SMS and McClatchy should SMS lose to McClatchy today? And what happens if Salesian upsets BOD? If both games haven't already played? Should Pinewood would grab the 3rd seed should BOD lose to Salesian today? Unless CN and others have to be given the higher seed over Pinewood and BOD for winning sectional? I think Carondelet guards are a bit under rated. So I don't think that would be a clear advantage to Mc Clatchy. If they were to beat Carondelet I think it would be from getting hot from the perimeter and not from dominating the guard play.

Well with Salesian upsetting BOD and winning the Sectional crown that creates a bit of shifting in the rankings. Any thoughts ? Did Salesian just do Miramonte a favor? Or assuming MM beats Monty will both Salesian and MM get in? And now looms big the SMS vs Mac game? Assuming SMS wins that would likely give them the 4th seed? Or does MM having a better record than SMS get the higher seed even with the weaker SOS? Salesian winning may have just shifted BOD ,Pinewood, and a few teams down?

 

[northbaybbguru]

The question is are they taking 6 or 8 to the OPEN?

If 6.... 6 are locks right now....(in no particular order)
1...Mitty
2...PW
3...Salesian
4...Clet
5...BOD
6...SMS/McClatchy winner

not making it....

Cn (losses to Salesian and BOD keep them out of top 6, but not 8)...Bubble team
SHC (2 losses to CN keep them out of top 6 because CN goes in ahead of them)
MM (behind CN also)
Loser SMS/McClatchy (would be 2nd SJS team IMO)...bubble team
Vanden (possible 2nd SJS team)


If 8 teams to the OPEN....2 comes out of that group of 5 above

 

[Paytc]

The question is are they taking 6 or 8 to the OPEN?

If 6.... 6 are locks right now....(in no particular order)
1...Mitty
2...PW
3...Salesian
4...Clet
5...BOD
6...SMS/McClatchy winner

not making it....

Cn (losses to Salesian and BOD keep them out of top 6, but not 8)...Bubble team
SHC (2 losses to CN keep them out of top 6 because CN goes in ahead of them)
MM (behind CN also)
Loser SMS/McClatchy (would be 2nd SJS team IMO)...bubble team
Vanden (possible 2nd SJS team)


If 8 teams to the OPEN....2 comes out of that group of 5 above

I personally think SMS with the return of Murry and Decosta will beat McClatchy. If that happens your 6 would be determined as stated above. Then it appears if they took 8 teams MM and CN would make your cut with Vanden and McClatchy in the consideration about 8th or 9th.

So that gives us 8 teams. Now we still must put them in some type of order not knowing where CW will end up. I guess we will know by about mid day tomorrow.

 

[bodyguard]

1 ) Mitty
2) Carondelet
3) BOD
4) SMS
5) CN
6) Pinewood
7) McClatchy
8) MM

Pinewood should have had the 5 seed but with them is the 6 seed allows for items not to play their own divisions in the first round.

.

If they are 5 they play SMS, which is not from their division or section. I think with the losses SMS may be 5 with PW getting a home game at 4

 

[RespectBBGame]

With the Salesian win thinkings change.
1) Mitty
2) Carondelet
3) SMS
4) CN or Pinewood
5) Pinewood or CN
6) Salesian
7) McClatchy
8) MM

The only think that can change now it McClatchy wins and it a go chance!!!! Coach K will breakdown SMS because he knows most of SMS players and their are going to be bad match ups. This is a game that Coach K have been looking for since his Brookside days.

 

[Paytc]

With the Salesian win thinkings change.
1) Mitty
2) Carondelet
3) SMS
4) CN
5) Pinewood
6) Salesian
7) McClatchy
8) MM

The only think that can change now it McClatchy wins and it a go chance!!!! Coach K will breakdown SMS because he knows most of SMS players and their are going to be bad match ups. This is a game that Coach have been looking for since his Brookside days.

I could be wrong but I dont think McClatchy will have a clear area where they are better than SMS. I know that was also the case with Pinewood vs SMS last season so I guess that is why they play the game. When I think about McClatchy matching up I see Decosta and company stronger inside and on the glass. When I think of the guard play I think with Murry back AJ has great support making them stronger there as well. The only person that stands out to possible be able to cause SMS a problem is Jordan Cruz getting hot from outside. I think McClatchy may have a slight speed advantage at the guard spot but SMS has two D1 guards that aren't too shabby.

 

[jazzpt55]

If MM could pull an upset tonight....
Would SMS and MM flip spots?????

 

[Paytc]

If MM could pull an upset tonight....
Would SMS and MM flip spots?????

What time does MM vs Monty and SMS vs McClatchy play?

 

[jazzpt55]

Both games at 6

 

[kkross22]

I could be wrong but I dont think McClatchy will have a clear area where they are better than SMS. I know that was also the case with Pinewood vs SMS last season so I guess that is why they play the game. When I think about McClatchy matching up I see Decosta and company stronger inside and on the glass. When I think of the guard play I think with Murry back AJ has great support making them stronger there as well. The only person that stands out to possible be able to cause SMS a problem is Jordan Cruz getting hot from outside. I think McClatchy may have a slight speed advantage at the guard spot but SMS has two D1 guards that aren't too shabby.

If I had to put money on it, I most definitely have SMS, actually on our way to go support right now.
Love Jordan, always been a fan, but don't forget about Courtesy Clark and Richelle Turney. Courtesy most definitely gets after those boards.

 

[Agapbliitz]

winesnot - whats the score over there in lobo land?

 

[UncleYacht]

@Agapbliitz I think you just described 3 of my best friends, and all of my college roommates. I am certain they are not guru's.....at anything! Hahaha, this gentleman you are describing sure seems comfortable though! Om Express is delicious as well!

 

[OnBall8]

I don't know any of you guys but I really wouldn't mind seeing an "agap gets KO'ed @ nor cal quarterfinal" thread.

 

[ClayK]

So it seems to me:

Overall lock

Clovis West

Southern locks

Long Beach Poly
Harvard-Westlake
Troy
Etiwanda
Mission Hills

Northern locks

Mitty
Pinewood
SMS
Carondelet

Southern candidates

Bishop's
Fairfax

Northern candidates

Sacred Heart Cathedral
Salesian
Bishop O'Dowd
Cardinal Newman
Miramonte
McClatchy
Vanden

Given that list, I'd guess Clovis West goes South because there are fewer candidates there making it six teams... Bishop's and Fairfax have pretty much the same rating, so I think they go eight or six. But of course you never know. If it's seven, it's Fairfax.

That leaves the North with four locks, and rumor has it SHC has checked the box saying it wants to be in the Open. Let's say that's true, or that SHC is pulled up.

Of the remaining group, a maximum of three will go -- and my feeling, based on nothing, is that if the South goes eight, so will the North. If the South goes six, so will the North, and the South is the driver here because fewer options are available (they can only take four Southern Section teams but if they could take more, the equation would change).

Let's say it's eight. By record, section title and ranking, Cardinal Newman is in, making six.

Now it gets hard:

Salesian: Section champ, quality wins, but eight losses and lowest MaxPreps rating.

Bishop O'Dowd: Record and ranking are positives, big wins (Pinewood), but not a section champ.

If the committee wants O'Dowd, they pretty much have to take Salesian, which would fill the bracket.

If the committee decides to pass on O'Dowd, then Salesian isn't an automatic (and both go into D3 to likely meet again). Now on the table are Miramonte, McClatchy and Vanden. Of that trio, Miramonte has the record, the ranking and section title, and is in. McClatchy/Vanden? Flip a coin, or stay at seven.

If the committee takes Salesian and passes on O'Dowd, then it would make sense to stay at seven, since O'Dowd has more credentials than Miramonte (won the TOC bracket Miramonte finished third in, not to mention bigger wins).

The easy path? Stay at six in both North and South. That strengthens the lower divisions and gives byes to the top two teams in each region.

Go beyond six, and it gets complicated ...

 

[Paytc]

So it seems to me:

Overall lock

Clovis West

Southern locks

Long Beach Poly
Harvard-Westlake
Troy
Etiwanda
Mission Hills

Northern locks

Mitty
Pinewood
SMS
Carondelet

Southern candidates

Bishop's
Fairfax

Northern candidates

Sacred Heart Cathedral
Salesian
Bishop O'Dowd
Cardinal Newman
Miramonte
McClatchy
Vanden

Given that list, I'd guess Clovis West goes South because there are fewer candidates there making it six teams... Bishop's and Fairfax have pretty much the same rating, so I think they go eight or six. But of course you never know. If it's seven, it's Fairfax.

That leaves the North with four locks, and rumor has it SHC has checked the box saying it wants to be in the Open. Let's say that's true, or that SHC is pulled up.

Of the remaining group, a maximum of three will go -- and my feeling, based on nothing, is that if the South goes eight, so will the North. If the South goes six, so will the North, and the South is the driver here because fewer options are available (they can only take four Southern Section teams but if they could take more, the equation would change).

Let's say it's eight. By record, section title and ranking, Cardinal Newman is in, making six.

Now it gets hard:

Salesian: Section champ, quality wins, but eight losses and lowest MaxPreps rating.

Bishop O'Dowd: Record and ranking are positives, big wins (Pinewood), but not a section champ.

If the committee wants O'Dowd, they pretty much have to take Salesian, which would fill the bracket.

If the committee decides to pass on O'Dowd, then Salesian isn't an automatic (and both go into D3 to likely meet again). Now on the table are Miramonte, McClatchy and Vanden. Of that trio, Miramonte has the record, the ranking and section title, and is in. McClatchy/Vanden? Flip a coin, or stay at seven.

If the committee takes Salesian and passes on O'Dowd, then it would make sense to stay at seven, since O'Dowd has more credentials than Miramonte (won the TOC bracket Miramonte finished third in, not to mention bigger wins).

The easy path? Stay at six in both North and South. That strengthens the lower divisions and gives byes to the top two teams in each region.

Go beyond six, and it gets complicated ...

Good synopsis. Not easy to filter through both the North and the South. I personally think they should take 6 teams and not 8 every season. Unless quality team's are asking to be placed in the open who are not included in the 6. That way there is less chance to have to include a sacrificial lamb. It gives the #1 seed a bye. And there are no teams ( in their minds) being punished. So less intentional tanking.

So what time should we expect to get the seedings for this years Open Division?

 

[cptmycpa]

Good synopsis. Not easy to filter through both the North and the South. I personally think they should take 6 teams and not 8 every season. Unless quality team's are asking to be placed in the open who are not included in the 6. That way there is less chance to have to include a sacrificial lamb. It gives the #1 seed a bye. And there are no teams ( in their minds) being punished. So less intentional tanking.

So what time should we expect to get the seedings for this years Open Division?

5 p.m. today, Sunday on the State CIF website.
http://www.cifstate.org/sports/basketball/bb_champ_info

according to CalHi Sports:
Check the CIF state web site at approximately 5 p.m. on Sunday to see how it all turns out plus which teams are seeded the highest in all five divisions.
http://www.calhisports.com/2017/03/05/girls-bb-open-division-picks/

 

[winetot]

Jimmy -

Just got done with pictures, what time do you want to meet at omelette express?

 

[colhenrylives]

Harold Abend's analysis of both the North and South Open Division likely seedings is excellent. It's on the Cal Hi Sports website and posted today. Well-thought-out.

 

[Agapbliitz]

Jimmy -

Just got done with pictures, what time do you want to meet at omelette express?

12 pm works you flyin im buyin

 

[Paytc]

Harold Abend's analysis of both the North and South Open Division likely seedings is excellent. It's on the Cal Hi Sports website and posted today. Well-thought-out.

I think he's close. But I have to keep remembering the "scoreboard doesn't lie" criteria Clay uses to determine rankings. And then question why SHC with a record of 18-8 (and a blowout loss in sectionals) would be selected over MM with a 27-3 record and NCS championship winners in a 40 point victory. Things that make you say em........

 

[colhenrylives]

It does make one sit back with furrowed brow and say, "Hmmm. What am I missing here?"

 

[Paytc]

It does make one sit back with furrowed brow and say, "Hmmm. What am I missing here?"

I think if they don't want MM in the Open the selection folks need to just run with 6 teams. And as I stated earlier, they should only select 6 each year. And let the 7th and 8th teams opt in if they choose to do so.

Not that they should be, but...... unless well coached, most 7th and 8th seeds are beat before they even show up. So why even select more than 6? Let confident 7th and 8th seeds opt in if they choose to do so.

 

[Scoutus32]

I think if they don't want MM in the Open the selection folks need to just run with 6 teams. And as I stated earlier, they should only select 6 each year. And let the 7th and 8th teams opt in if they choose to do so.

Harold has MM's back. He knows MM wants no part of open and would like to compete for a state title. I like the thought of 6 teams.

 

[Paytc]

Harold has MM's back. He knows MM wants no part of open and would like to compete for a state title. I like the thought of 6 teams.

In all fairness to MM I agree with them. This season there're not open material. I feel only 6 teams should be selected. MM is good enough to play with just about any team. But they are a bit overmatched going up against the top 4 or 5 in the Open Division. Therefore they would most likely lose in the 1st or 2nd round. But last season Carondelet was thrown in the 8th seed slot when they should have been placed a bit higher so one never knows the motivation or biases that work behind closed doors. MM like SHC, McClatchy, Vanden and everyone else will just have to make the best wherever they end up.

 

[CamAca]

In all fairness to MM I agree with them. This season there're not open material. I feel only 6 teams should be selected. MM is good enough to play with just about any team. But they are a bit overmatched going up against the top 4 or 5 in the Open Division. Therefore they would most likely lose in the 1st or 2nd round. But last season Carondelet was thrown in the 8th seed slot when they should have been placed a bit higher so one never knows the motivation or biases that work behind closed doors. MM like SHC, McClatchy, Vanden and everyone else will just have to make the best wherever they end up.

I don't know that MM couldn't hang with anyone this year except MItty.

 

[CamAca]

I don't know that MM couldn't hang with anyone this year except MItty.

And SMS now that their two stars are back which i forgot.

 

[Paytc]

I don't know that MM couldn't hang with anyone this year except MItty.

Hey with their coaching and the massive effort the team would bring to the table that could keep them in most games. However they would be overmatched by the size, skill, experience, and depth of several top Open Division opponents. Not just Mitty and SMS who though they are two of the favorites could both get upset themselves. I don't think Salesian, Carondelet, Pinewood, or BOD are trembling at the thought of playing Mitty or SMS even though they know they would be under dogs. And CN would also present a tough matchup for many teams especially MM.

 

[ClayK]

Thanks for the balanced responses ...

As I've mentioned, and saw again yesterday while watching O'Dowd and Salesian, is that we're just not physically mature enough (we start two freshmen and have three in the rotation) or deep enough or tall enough to really go against the top teams. Next year, I'd feel a lot better about it, even with Elle Louie gone. Though BOD and Salesian each play some smaller girls, overall they just seemed like much more physical and athletic than we are.

That said, being in the same NorCal bracket with those two would be fine -- we'd have a shot at winning, I think, though we'd be underdogs. Having seen Mitty and SMS, it looks like a different story. And I think BOD and Salesian have the same shot at Mitty and SMS that we would at Carondelet, BOD and Salesian ... underdogs but with a chance.

 

[Paytc]

Thanks for the balanced responses ...

As I've mentioned, and saw again yesterday while watching O'Dowd and Salesian, is that we're just not physically mature enough (we start two freshmen and have three in the rotation) or deep enough or tall enough to really go against the top teams. Next year, I'd feel a lot better about it, even with Elle Louie gone. Though BOD and Salesian each play some smaller girls, overall they just seemed like much more physical and athletic than we are.

That said, being in the same NorCal bracket with those two would be fine -- we'd have a shot at winning, I think, though we'd be underdogs. Having seen Mitty and SMS, it looks like a different story. And I think BOD and Salesian have the same shot at Mitty and SMS that we would at Carondelet, BOD and Salesian ... underdogs but with a chance.

Hey there is always a shot. And coaching does matter. There are a lot of coaches that if given MM's roster this year would have that team at about slightly above 500 or lower IMO. And there are coaches out there that have the talent and not the experience or insight to get the max out of there own team. But just based on talent and depth without considering the coaching MM has very little chance going up against the top 4 or 5 teams in the open IMO. And coaches are not out on the court playing during the Open.

 

[kkross22]

I think he's close. But I have to keep remembering the "scoreboard doesn't lie" criteria Clay uses to determine rankings. And then question why SHC with a record of 18-8 (and a blowout loss in sectionals) would be selected over MM with a 27-3 record and NCS championship winners in a 40 point victory. Things that make you say em........

Hey, I posted a similar remark on FB this morning. I guess great minds think alike!
I honestly hope the committee goes with 6 cause I think we would be in a better position to keep more state titles up North.

 

[northbaybbguru]

So it seems to me:

Overall lock

Clovis West

Southern locks

Long Beach Poly
Harvard-Westlake
Troy
Etiwanda
Mission Hills

Northern locks

Mitty
Pinewood
SMS
Carondelet

Southern candidates

Bishop's
Fairfax

Northern candidates

Sacred Heart Cathedral
Salesian
Bishop O'Dowd
Cardinal Newman
Miramonte
McClatchy
Vanden

Given that list, I'd guess Clovis West goes South because there are fewer candidates there making it six teams... Bishop's and Fairfax have pretty much the same rating, so I think they go eight or six. But of course you never know. If it's seven, it's Fairfax.

That leaves the North with four locks, and rumor has it SHC has checked the box saying it wants to be in the Open. Let's say that's true, or that SHC is pulled up.

Of the remaining group, a maximum of three will go -- and my feeling, based on nothing, is that if the South goes eight, so will the North. If the South goes six, so will the North, and the South is the driver here because fewer options are available (they can only take four Southern Section teams but if they could take more, the equation would change).

Let's say it's eight. By record, section title and ranking, Cardinal Newman is in, making six.

Now it gets hard:

Salesian: Section champ, quality wins, but eight losses and lowest MaxPreps rating.

Bishop O'Dowd: Record and ranking are positives, big wins (Pinewood), but not a section champ.

If the committee wants O'Dowd, they pretty much have to take Salesian, which would fill the bracket.

If the committee decides to pass on O'Dowd, then Salesian isn't an automatic (and both go into D3 to likely meet again). Now on the table are Miramonte, McClatchy and Vanden. Of that trio, Miramonte has the record, the ranking and section title, and is in. McClatchy/Vanden? Flip a coin, or stay at seven.

If the committee takes Salesian and passes on O'Dowd, then it would make sense to stay at seven, since O'Dowd has more credentials than Miramonte (won the TOC bracket Miramonte finished third in, not to mention bigger wins).

The easy path? Stay at six in both North and South. That strengthens the lower divisions and gives byes to the top two teams in each region.

Go beyond six, and it gets complicated ...

I think CN is the 7 seed right now.....BOD and Salesian have the H2H win over them.


I would go....

1. Mitty
2. CLET
3.SMS
4. PW
5.Salesian
6.BOD
7.CN
8.SHC

the only potential difference would be if committee decides to take MM as the 4th team out of the NCS instead of CN

in that case

1.Mitty
2.CLET
3.SMS
4.PW
5.Salesian
6.BOD
7.SHC
8.MM

 

[OnBall8]

The only problem the first scenario is Mitty playing SHC in the first round. I would assume the committee would avoid the same section/ league playing each other. But the teams look good.

 

[RespectBBGame]

SHC IS NOT GOING TO THE OPEN THEY TOOK 3 IN CCS OPEN. BUT I THINK THE COMMITTEE MIGHT MOVE THEM TO D2. THEY WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE IN D2 JUST HAVE TO BEAT SAC HIGH.

 

[letsski]

SHC IS NOT GOING TO THE OPEN THEY TOOK 3 IN CCS OPEN. BUT I THINK THE COMMITTEE MIGHT MOVE THEM TO D2. THEY WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE IN D2 JUST HAVE TO BEAT SAC HIGH.

I agree with Respect - don't think SHC is going open. Please remember that PW gave Mitty all they could handle without their starting point guard. They are a team no one wants to play. As a #4 seed, will PW host an opening round game? Their gym is small!

 

[Paytc]

1. Mitty
2. CLET
3. PW
4.SMS
5.Salesian
6.BOD
7.CN
8.SHC

Rumor but not confirmed seeding above.

 

[OnBall8]

I think CN is the 7 seed right now.....BOD and Salesian have the H2H win over them.


I would go....

1. Mitty
2. CLET
3.SMS
4. PW
5.Salesian
6.BOD
7.CN
8.SHC

the only potential difference would be if committee decides to take MM as the 4th team out of the NCS instead of CN

in that case

1.Mitty
2.CLET
3.SMS
4.PW
5.Salesian
6.BOD
7.SHC
8.MM

Wow you were close with your first one. Congrats

 

[eastcounty]

1. Mitty
2. CLET
3. PW
4.SMS
5.Salesian
6.BOD
7.CN
8.SHC

Rumor but not confirmed seeding above.

It is posted on the state site as that