If St. Mary's is healthy (note: SM was without RB Dusty Frampton after first play vs SJB), they are very difficult to stop. Their offense is not perfect. They have had their fair share of turnovers (fumbles, INT's), but barring turnovers and barring no injuries, the Rams offense just seems to roll thru everyone. True, maybe Oak Ridge presents a defense that may challenge the Rams' offense. But, from what I have seen on tape, there is a distinct difference in speed and athleticism. If teams focus on Dewey Cotton and Dusty Frampton, they turn to Aponte and/or Hampton. In addition, SM is expanding it's offense in working in the QB read option along with also having Cotton run behind center in addition to lining up in the slot. Against SJB, once Frampton went down with his injury, St. Mary's running game was not as strong (vs SJB D-line/linebackers) and was held to being 1-dimensional, which led to a couple of costly INT's and a blocked punt.
St. Mary's has not punted often at all and relies on their QB, Jake Dunniway, to handle this duty. If there is a weakness in the Ram's game, it may be in it's punting, since I have not witnessed them punting from a deep snap. But, getting the Rams to punt is difficult. If just outside the redzone, the Ram's FG kicker is quite dependable. Holding St. Mary's under 30 points will be very difficult, even if a ground control offense is introduced, as they are capable in scoring in less than a minute. With Oak Ridge having success with their onside kickoff vs Folsom, I would not be surprised to see Oak Ridge turn to the onside kick vs St. Mary's. Many teams have attempted this vs St. Mary's. Many have failed, but some have found some success. Some teams figure an onside kick probably leads to same field position as direct kickoff to them, since the Rams' kickoff returners do a good job in getting the ball close to midfield to start. If the opposing team kicks out of bounds, St. Mary's will ask for re-kick vs taking the ball at the 35.
I anticipate Oak Ridge's offense is going to give fits to St. Mary's D early on. But, the Rams have a good D once they know what they need to do. This was evident in their games vs Serra and Cardinal Newman. The Rams secondary is night and day compared to last year, but they have had a few wrinkles with a couple of blown coverage plays recently. I anticipate Oak Ridge will have more success on the ground vs the air against the Rams' D, especially with OR's QB running the ball just as much as their RB's. However, once Oak Ridge falls behind on the scoreboard, it will be difficult to come back against the Ram's offense. Hence, why I am giving St. Mary's a couple extra scores vs Calpreps projections.
St. Mary's offense IMHO is better than Folsom's. Oak Ridge was able to hold Folsom's offense to 129 yards on the ground. This will be very difficult to do against St. Mary's Dusty Frampton, but doable. The problem is that if OR puts the extra bodies in the box to stop Frampton, Jake Dunniway will go to town like he did vs Central Catholic. IMHO, I just don't think Oak Ridge has the same matching athletes like SJB to cover all of Dunniway's targets while also trying to stop Frampton. Likewise, the Rams O/D lines, especially #50 Popo Aumavae, will be a challenge for OR's O/D lines and vice versa. Oak Ridge's O/D lines will not be the same as to what St. Mary's has gone up against in it's last 8 games. Is OR's O/D line like SJB's? Probably not, but they are definitely going to be a lot better than what St. Mary's has faced since SJB.
I don't expect this game to be like Folsom vs Oak Ridge. I anticipate large scores from both teams, but just St. Mary's having more scores. However, turnovers can and will make a big difference. The weather is expecting rain. So on a Friday night, anything can happen and in high school football with a wet ball and wet field, often does. In any case, it should be an exciting, fun game for all.