In games OR has lost this year (vs Reed and Folsom) and in the close victory vs DO, OR was not able to muster up more than 122 yards rushing per game. Yet, OR averages over 239 yards on the ground per game.
vs Reed ... 72 yards rushing, 277 yards passing
vs Del Oro ... 94 yards, 323 yards passing
vs Folsom ... 122 yards, 129 yards passing
In these three games, OR's defense gave up ...
vs Reed ... 357 yards rushing, 225 yards passing
vs Del Oro ... 248 yards, 188 yards passing
vs Folsom ... 129 yards, 202 yards passing
The offense for St. Mary's in noted games ...
vs Serra ... 314 yards rushing, 231 yards passing
vs CN ... 291 yards rushing, 282 yards passing
vs SJB ... 82 yards rushing, 161 yards passing (note: NO Dusty Frampton)
In other games where the opponent has focused on stopping St. Mary's ground game, St. Mary's torched them in the air ...
vs Central Catholic ... 69 yards rushing, 386 yards passing
vs Pitman ... 99 yards rushing, 316 yards passing
For OR to have a chance at defeating St. Mary's, the OR defense will need to shut down St. Mary's ground game but also shut down St. Mary's aerial attack. Oak Ridge was most effective vs Folsom. But, likewise, Folsom's defense was effective vs Oak Ridge.
No doubt, outside of facing SJB, Oak Ridge will be St. Mary's toughest test for both it's offense and it's defense. Likewise, I anticipate this will be Oak Ridge's toughest test, tougher than Folsom and tougher than Reed. But, I believe it is fair to count the Reed game as an early season learning experience, as I am certain today's Oak Ridge team would do much better vs Reed.
Last year, Oak Ridge lost to Elk Grove in the playoffs 18-30, while giving up 308 yards rushing, specifically 222 yards on 41 carries by former senior EG's Ryan Robards. Can Oak Ridge's defense stop Dusty Frampton? And if it can, will doing so expose holes in the secondary for Jake Dunniway to exploit? If Oak Ridge can manage to stop or slow down St. Mary's ground game, specifically Dusty Frampton without depleting it's secondary to keep the Ram aerial attack under control, as well, the Trojans from Oak Ridge definitely have a chance in this game.
Agree, the schedule, especially of late, definitely favors Oak Ridge. For St. Mary's not to be challenged for the last 7 games straight, will definitely mean St. Mary's is finally running into a "buzzsaw" and will have to play without making mistakes that they were able to get over in their easy victories (the last 7 games). Mistakes made vs SJB proved to be too costly, and hopefully the Rams learned from that experience and have not forgotten. But, I believe the experience the St. Mary's defense had vs Serra and CN in facing dynamic QB's who can run and throw the ball, will favor St. Mary's. St. Mary's offense may be similar to Folsom's. But, no disrespect to Folsom, as they have had a great program over the last several years. But, this year's St. Mary's offense, IMHO, is much better than Folsom's, at least from a consistency standpoint. St. Mary's offense only inconsistent moment this year came vs SJB. And everyone can agree that Sacramento is not the same level team as SJB.
I may still be haunted by the 2009 St. Mary's playoff game vs Del Oro, where the St. Mary's offense, as dynamic as they were, had to turn to some trick plays to stay in the game in which they had the early momentum, but lost it when their defense started succumbing to Del Oro's offense. But, I feel this year's St. Mary's offense is better than 2009. This year's QB, Jake Dunniway, may not have a stronger arm than 2009's Marcus McDade, but he is more accurate and is able to handle the pressure better (the later being most important). Stats-wise including QB efficiency, Dunniway exceeds McDade's #'s by quite a bit (2884 yards, 36 TD's, and QB rating of 140.6 versus 2435 yards, 31 TD's, and QB rating of 128, respectively). The group of 2016 group of WR's in Cotton, Hampton, Aponte, may be a bit lighter in force than 2009's group of Harper, Lechich, Michaels, and Cox. But, 2016 RB Dusty Frampton vs 2009 RB Maurice Howze, along with the 2016 Ram's defense is a bit better. One reason I feel Dunniway is better than McDade is because Jake has had 2 years under center experience, and many SFL fans witnessed Dunniway's capabilities vs Folsom last year in the SJS D1 semi-finals was coming to form. It should also be noted that although RB Dusty Frampton only has 1442 yards and 29 TD's, it is because he rarely, if ever, plays a full game. Out of the total run offense (2567 yards on 333 carries and 50 rushing TD's), Frampton only has 143 carries (equates to 10.1 ypc). He sits out much of the 2nd half. Otherwise, he is in there for blocking while Dunniway does his thing. Maybe these 2016 stats are bit inflated due to the lack of competition in league play. Everyone witnessed what a beast Dusty Frampton when St. Mary's coaches decide to use him in the game, like he did vs Serra and vs Cardinal Newman. Even in those 2 games, he only had 1/2 the carries on the ground. Nervous? Nah. Anxious? Yes, indeed. Just can't wait.
I, too, hope Oak Ridge brings their "A" game. I am a fan of St. Mary's. But, more important I am a fan of great high school football. I sure hope this game delivers. May the better team win.