Open Division: San Mateo Serra vs. Santa Ana Mater Dei
Everyone and their mothers recognizes that the Monarchs of Mater Dei are among the very top teams in the country, but Serra isn't really chopped liver, either. I believe the first quarter will dictate how this game will go. In other instances where a NorCal team was a distinct underdog, good early defensive play has tended to lull their opposition to sleep (until they turn the ball over and wake them up, but we won't go into that). The Padre defense has generally been really solid this year, so the hope is that they can withstand the Monarch onslaught early on to at least give them something to think about as the game progresses. Will that be enough? Probably not. Mater Dei 38, Serra 10
D-1AA: Concord De La Salle vs. Mission Viejo
I've been saying that the Diablos of Mission Viejo are the class of this division for a while and I still do believe that. But while this is not your father's Spartan team, they've showed at times that they still have some of that magic. It's just that they've also shown that they have had issues in the passing game and with turnovers. Mission Viejo will be steady and are a fairly complete team... not unbeatable, just steady. They've lost some games and I certainly think that De La Salle is capable of pinning another one on them, but I think the lack of consisting passing game may be their undoing. Mission Viejo 27, De La Salle 20
D-1A: Folsom vs. Ventura St. Bonaventure
This is where the impact of the placement of Clovis North starts to come into play. DLS vs. MV will be an interesting game, but I also think Folsom vs. MV would be interesting. However, here the Bulldogs will be taking on the Seraphs of St. Bonaventure. It's not that St. Bonny hasn't seem teams around the level of Folsom, it's that they've pretty much lost to every one of them. The SJS D-I champ play has also been a little shaky over the last few weeks, too, but they have persevered against multiple teams either at or above the level of the Seraphs. Calpreps is predicting a 14-point win for Folsom, which could be about right, but I also suspect that this is one they could blow open as they did in their early match-up with Oak Ridge. Folsom 41, St. Bonaventure 20
D-2AA: Sacramento Grant vs. Whittier La Serna
The Lancers of La Serna were in trouble early in their SoCal regional game against a physical Orange Vista team. Key execution in the 4th quarter brought them back and into this CIF state bowl game. The problem for this is that the physicality and speed they will see in the Pacers will be on another level. Grant only had a few opportunities to see high-level competition during the regular season and had mixed results. In the playoffs, however, they have really rounded into form with four consecutive blowouts, including against a very well-respected Rocklin Thunder team. Calpreps is only predicting a 7-point win for Grant, but I see it being a little more than that. Grant 41, La Serna 24
D-2A: Los Gatos vs. Visalia Central Valley Christian
Watching the SoCal regional bowl game for the Cavaliers of Central Valley Christian, I was reminded of two CIF bowl winners from the Central Section (Washington Union over Campolindo in 2011 and Bakersfield over Del Oor in 2013). In each of those game, the speed from the valley teams was largely was the difference and Central Valley Christian has that. The thing is that Los Gatos has also seen teams with speed and while they've held their own, they haven't entirely been able to overcome it. That said, among the big differences between Pittsburg or Grant and the Cavaliers is defense, which definitely has been a sticking point that the Wildcats can exploit. Los Gatos has demonstrated that they can win high- or low-scoring affairs, but I'm not entirely confident in the 14-point win that Calpreps is predicting. I do think that the Wildcats will emerge victorious, but I could also see an upset in this division. Los Gatos 45, Central Valley Christian 37
D-3AA: Lafayette Acalanes vs. Van Nuys Birmingham
In my projections for the bowl divisions, I felt that Simi Valley and the Patriots of Birmingham were generally interchangeable in their placement. While, as an outsider, it didn't make a significant difference to me that the CIF reversed the order from what I listed, I think it certainly made a pretty big difference for SVHS and BHS as I don't think either would have beaten CVC. Instead, Birmingham was able to hang around against the San Diego Section's Del Norte long enough to pull off a dramatic Hail Mary at the end to steal the victory. I don't anticipate the same dramatics against Acalanes as the Dons have been playing very well during these playoffs, winning comfortably against teams I consider to be about at the Patriot's level (San Marin and Escalon). I suspect that Birmingham has generally enjoyed a speed advantage against most of their opponents this year, but I don't think that's going to be the case in this one. Acalanes 31, Birmingham 17
D-3A: Kentfield Marin Catholic vs. Lakewood Mayfair
This is where teams start to come from somewhat stronger leagues, but who finished mid-pack. The Monsoons of Mayfair had to face Warren and Downey during league play, so a third-place finish shouldn't be too surprising. However, neither game was especially competitive against those teams, who approximate the strength of Marin Catholic. The Wildcats didn't face anyone of this level until their final regular season game, which they dropped against San Marin. Still, wins over Cardinal Newman and McClymonds demonstrate they're ready for this game. Mayfair is decent on offense, so Marin Catholic will probably want to avoid a shootout, but their defense has yielded quite a bit of points this year. Calpreps has an over/under of 49 for this game, but I anticipate the scoring to be higher. Marin Catholic 38, Mayfair 24
