Who will be the 2022 NorCal Open Team?

[MJ2014]

Right now……

1) Serra - they beat DLS & Folsom

2) St. Mary’s

If both run the table

1) St. Mary’s , they will have beat both teams as well, and went through a tougher post season

 

[colhenrylives]

...or, we could have this scenario...serra somehow loses a WCAL game and wins CCS Division I...folsom runs the table and beats sms...then what?...serra beat folsom at folsom...good luck...

 

[BoutDatAction]

Folsom owns St. Mary's

No one is afraid of ANYONE from Stockton lol

Isn’t Folsom’s best player from Stockton? Rico Flores. 🤷🏽‍♂️🤣

 

[pastyfastquick3]

Only upset that you are SO SCARED that you can’t recognize that no team from NorCal has posted that many points vs DLS in quite some time (could have been more … they took a knee and missed a chipshot FG). Allowing DLS to score even in the late minutes is mute, if your offense can dominate like the Baby RAMS did Friday night.

Wish I could help you with your FEAR of Baby RAMS. You must struggle getting any sleep because counting sheep to you means counting Baby RAMS scoring TD after TD after TD, and that bothers you … A LOT!!! Hope you are able to get over it and conquer your fears. 😉

Best keep your mind on the Del Oro Eagles, instead of Baby RAMS, or your team might be in for a shocker come Friday. Good luck! 😉

I still remember the Baby Rams coming to Folsom in 2015 and getting beat by Jake Jeffrey.

You were in the group of St Mary's fans yelling and screaming obsencities I've never heard before while walking out of that game. I will never forget that.

Folsom still has you rattled down there in Stockton.

 

[pastyfastquick3]

Isn’t Folsom’s best player from Stockton? Rico Flores. 🤷🏽‍♂️🤣

He is from Sacramento, as is De La Salle's best all-time player

 

[ThunderRam]

If St. Mary's wins their league, they will be in D1.

If they do not win their league, they will be in D2 and this conversation about an Open bid would be moot.

St. Mary's has a couple of good teams remaining on their schedule (Tracy and Lincoln), but they will be two-touchdown favorites in both games.

I knew their league has historically been D1 and didn’t figure that had changed, but thought I’d discuss both scenarios just in case.

Agreed, given that circumstance — if they end up in D2 that means they didn’t win league thus won’t be in the discussion.

However there clearly seems to be a path to the Open within their control, potentially facing Folsom along the way.

 

[bulldogmgc]

I still remember the Baby Rams coming to Folsom in 2015 and getting beat by Jake Jeffrey.

You were in the group of St Mary's fans yelling and screaming obsencities I've never heard before while walking out of that game. I will never forget that.

Folsom still has you rattled down there in Stockton.

If you heard such things, from some of the Rams fans, that’s unfortunate it has bothered you so much, “still”. Should we get you a lollipop? Will that make you feel better?

The Rams of Stockton scared you so bad that year (and we weren’t even expected to go that far), that the next year we beat your arse in the section championship so bad that you felt compelled to go run, hide, and change your moniker out of pure embarrassment, because you were talking so much 💩, kinda like you’re doing now. But, I get it … pure insecurity (aka. SCARED!!!).

Curious … what new moniker are you going to use this time after you completely digest more and more crow with your big mouth? How about NCAA916 (No Class All Arse in the 916 area code). 😂

Sure, Folsom would win the next year, but the difference is that Ram fans didn’t expect to win and we didn’t talk 💩 like you love to do. You do realize (maybe you don’t) that you are nothing but an embarrassment for Folsom. I’ll continue to pray for you and that you are able to conquer your fears. It’s okay to be afraid. You’re not alone.

Please let me know if a lollipop will help. Okay?

 

[MTsince2004]

I knew their league has historically been D1 and didn’t figure that had changed, but thought I’d discuss both scenarios just in case.

Agreed, given that circumstance — if they end up in D2 that means they didn’t win league thus won’t be in the discussion.

However there clearly seems to be a path to the Open within their control, potentially facing Folsom along the way.

No one in the SJS controls their destiny to the Open bid. Right or wrong, Serra is the only program in Nor Cal that is fully in control of an Open bid. If they win out, it's probably a lock.

However, if Serra falters, the winner of the SJS D1 has a claim to the Open bid, no matter who it is.

It's a REALLY interesting year. Looking forward to how it plays out.

 

[FBAddict]

No one in the SJS controls their destiny to the Open bid. Right or wrong, Serra is the only program in Nor Cal that is fully in control of an Open bid. If they win out, it's probably a lock.

However, if Serra falters, the winner of the SJS D1 has a claim to the Open bid, no matter who it is.

It's a REALLY interesting year. Looking forward to how it plays out.

I like this year's Open view of prospects also. For so many years, it has been DLS holding that position. And when they were not chosen for the top slot (either Open or D1 before Open) the top NorCal representative did pretty good. Starting last year, it was not a DLS shoe in. And this year, there is NO chance for DLS to garner Open.

Serra has the best chance to represent right now. But I am really surprised by St. Mary's performance this year. They have a chance to prove themselves as the best SJS team and possibly the best or second best team in NorCal. To clarify, I am not stating SM is at that spot yet - only that they have the chance to prove it.

Folsom will be defending their SJS top spot and SM will be gunning to unseat them. If Folsom falters before then, then SM has even a better chance to claim 2022 dominance.

Aside some slip up on the way to playoffs, Serra will likely be seeded CCS D1 #1. Salinas, right now, has the best chance to disrupt Serra. Pal Booster has predicted Salinas seeded at D1 #3 so we will know that outcome November 18/19 if every team performs as expected.

 

[ThunderRam]

No one in the SJS controls their destiny to the Open bid. Right or wrong, Serra is the only program in Nor Cal that is fully in control of an Open bid. If they win out, it's probably a lock.

That’s just not true.

At this very moment Serra-SM and St. Mary’s-Stockton have 2 common opponents in Central Catholic-Modesto and De La Salle. The Rams beat both those teams in far more decisive fashion.

Let’s assume for a moment both Serra and St. Mary’s remain undefeated and win their respective sections.

At the very least, they will have 3 common opponents between them (St. Ignatius-SF) and quite possibly a 4th (Folsom).

IDC what their SoS ratings are. If St. Mary’s ends up with more decisive wins over all 4 of those common opponents or at the very least 3 of the 4 with Folsom included — they‘ve got a very legitimate case. I’d make the argument that they’d have a stronger case.

4 common opponents isn’t a small sample size. It’s nearly half of a regular season.

But for those hanging their hats on SoS, we don’t know where SoS will finish yet. But St. Mary’s would undoubtedly receive a huge bump by defeating Folsom, from which Serra has already received a SoS benefit.

So, please, by all means explain away to me again how Serra is the only team in control of their destiny and how they’d have a stronger argument than St. Mary’s under the scenario that their 4 wins against common opponents were in far less decisive fashion?

I realize that Serra will have beaten good teams in their playoff bracket too, but c’mon. Is that really enough to overcome 4 decisive wins over the same teams and two of which Serra nearly lost to?

I’m not seeing it.

 

[ThunderRam]

Right now……

1) Serra - they beat DLS & Folsom

2) St. Mary’s

If both run the table

1) St. Mary’s , they will have beat both teams as well, and went through a tougher post season

Don’t neglect to include the other common opponents, Central Catholic-Modesto and St. Ignatius.

Assuming St. Mary’s would have to go through Folsom to win SJS D1, there would be 4 common opponents between them. That’s not insiginifcant.

St. Mary’s already has more decisive wins over Central and De La Salle. If they end up with a decisive win over Folsom too, I don’t believe there’d be a strong case for Serra.

Even if St. Mary’s barely hung on to defeat Folsom, as Serra did, the more decisive wins over DLS and Central say something. Serra has yet to play St. Ignatius, so we’ll see how that plays out.

Regardless, to me, the results against DLS and Folsom matter the most. While DLS is clearly down, they are still a top program and a team only NorCal elites can beat. Same goes for Folsom.

Of course a new scenario could emerge of Del Oro beating Folsom next week then going on to take down St. Mary’s in the D1 Section Final and then what???

Lots of football still to be played.

 

[Cal 14]

I think he meant better SOS (not W/L record). Calpreps only looks at W/L, not so much point differential or actual dominance not reflected in the score. Ratings are based on W/L vs other teams with high or low ratings. It really is mute as the only true way to determine who is better is to play the game on the field. Let the seedings be what they are. Let the ratings be what they are. Let the projections be what they are. All of it is mute once the two teams take the field and play eachother. Case in point … last night at St. Mary’s. It’s all good! GO RAMS!!!

No, this is not true at all. The whole system 99% is based on MoV, within a range of 15-30 (at the moment). You automatically get credit for a 15-point win regardless of whether you beat someone by 1 or actually 15. Blowouts beyond 30 stay as 30-point wins for the system.

Further, really only games against teams within 30 rating points of your own really matter unless the MoV is less than 30.

 

[Cal 14]

Historically the Tri-City hasn’t been a strong league, but might very well be better than the WCAL this season.

Folsom and DO are in the deepest league this season, but St. Mary’s has the most impressive win over DLS between the three that have beaten them.

If DLS loses again, though, it might further lessen the importance.

If Del Oro upsets Folsom this week, St. Mary's could then play an even larger role. Should the Eagles beat the Rams for the SJS title, that actually should be considered better than Serra beating DLS.

 

[Cal 14]

Don’t neglect to include the other common opponents, Central Catholic-Modesto and St. Ignatius.

Assuming St. Mary’s would have to go through Folsom to win SJS D1, there would be 4 common opponents between them. That’s not insiginifcant.

St. Mary’s already has more decisive wins over Central and De La Salle. If they end up with a decisive win over Folsom too, I don’t believe there’d be a strong case for Serra.

Even if St. Mary’s barely hung on to defeat Folsom, as Serra did, the more decisive wins over DLS and Central say something. Serra has yet to play St. Ignatius, so we’ll see how that plays out.

Regardless, to me, the results against DLS and Folsom matter the most. While DLS is clearly down, they are still a top program and a team only NorCal elites can beat. Same goes for Folsom.

Of course a new scenario could emerge of Del Oro beating Folsom next week then going on to take down St. Mary’s in the D1 Section Final and then what???

Lots of football still to be played.

Decisive wins are not supposed to be considered. However, I do tend to agree that if SM beats Folsom for the SJS D-I title, the Rams would be a strong choice.

A wildcard, though, could be if Serra beats both Wilcox and Salinas while they were both undefeated. The CIF voters have seemed to like it when you beat an undefeated team in the playoffs, but haven't really shown a propensity to do a great deal of research regarding those unbeaten teams.

A second wildcard, however, is that the SJS voter seems to tend to fight for their teams stronger than does the CCS voter.

I think that ultimately, as long as SM beats Folsom for the SJS title, they would be chosen for the Open. If the Bulldogs get upset prior to that meeting, then I think Serra goes.

 

[ESPN Ken]

No, this is not true at all. The whole system 99% is based on MoV, within a range of 15-30 (at the moment). You automatically get credit for a 15-point win regardless of whether you beat someone by 1 or actually 15. Blowouts beyond 30 stay as 30-point wins for the system.

Further, really only games against teams within 30 rating points of your own really matter unless the MoV is less than 30.

For those who are interested, here’s a link that explains how ratings are generated: http://calpreps.com/ratings.htm

 

[Cal 14]

I don't think you understand what "clearly" means. It's merely your subjective interpretation and opinion. "Clearly" others disagree and have interpreted and weighed numerous factors differently than you have.

Such as Serra beating the same team they lost to 20 days earlier thus owning a 'W' over a team that DLS also lost to but didn't have a revenge win over.

Then there's also the factor of DLS having an additional loss. Sure, it was to a Nat'l power but it was also by double digits and not an especially competitive game.

You talk about "facts" but clearly chose to omit and ignore some of them.

So, again, you're overstating a lot.



I just provided some justification above. And even more could be listed.

You just don't happen to see or agree with the justification. But that doesn't mean there isn't any.

Just more overstating on your part.



Well, at least there some silver lining to be had.

Understanding rules is not his strong point.

The CIF voters made it clear that the main criterion used was common opponents. I'm unsure whether anything else especially seemed to matter. Serra had a win over St. Francis and the Lancers had beaten DLS. That SF win automatically placed the Spartans behind the two CCS D-I finalists, regardless of anyone else's emotional projections or claims.

That leads me to this possible, if not probable curveball... Folsom may not rank #3 in the Open Bowl criteria right now. They may potentially be at #6.

1. Serra
2. St. Mary's
3. Salinas
4. Wilcox
5. Mitty
6. Folsom
7. Del Oro
8. Oak Ridge
9. Clovis West

I think it would be difficult for the CIF voters to not apply the identical logic as they did last year if Serra were to be upset in the CCS playoffs by either the Cowboys, Chargers, or Monarchs (provided Folsom wins the SJS D-I title... a St. Mary's win throws this out of the window).

Now, do I think that either Mitty or Wilcox have a really good chance of beating the Padres? No, not really. Mitty was not competitive in their first meeting (regardless of what happened last year with Serra and St. Francis) and I think Wilcox's veer offense plays into the hands of a really good Padre run defense.

Salinas, on the other hand, has somewhat of a unique circumstance. Most teams have one major offensive weapon that leads the way. The Cowboys have two D-I WRs that are both averaging more than 20 yards/reception. They've combined for 8 TDs of more than 50 yards, plus one KR for a score. The QB has thrown 18 TDs vs only 1 pick, plus has rushed for 11 TDs. I've always believed that a high school team that can throw the ball really well has at least a puncher's chance against most opponents. While Serra did hold Folsom to 14 offensive points, keep in mind that their key TE went down with an injury early in that game and they mostly had to rely on one WR for the rest of the game. I do think that Serra would probably be a 14-20 point favorite, realistically. But, if they start out slowly or if the game turns into a shoot out, I think Salinas could make it really interesting.

This is not at all to claim that Folsom should be ranked below Salinas, Wilcox, or Mitty in terms of team rankings. I believe the Bulldogs are either #2 or 3 in NorCal. I just don't necessarily believe that the CIF criteria are 100% the same as regular rankings. I don't really believe that just because one team wins an early matchup that they automatically should be considered better at the end of the year, but I understand why pollsters typically have to do this. I firmly believe that upsets happen. But... it would be very interesting to see if the CIF voters would have the guts to ignore the common opponent criterion for an undefeated team (or a 1-loss Mitty team under nearly an identical situation as 2021 Serra) immediately the year after they so boldly applied it.

Provided St. Mary's beats Folsom in the SJS D-I playoffs, I think they would end up being chosen over Serra. I have the Padres listed as #1 because this just hasn't happened yet. If the Bulldogs get upset before the Rams get a chance to play them, then I think Serra gets the nod if they win out.

 

[MTsince2004]

That’s just not true.

At this very moment Serra-SM and St. Mary’s-Stockton have 2 common opponents in Central Catholic-Modesto and De La Salle. The Rams beat both those teams in far more decisive fashion.

Let’s assume for a moment both Serra and St. Mary’s remain undefeated and win their respective sections.

At the very least, they will have 3 common opponents between them (St. Ignatius-SF) and quite possibly a 4th (Folsom).

IDC what their SoS ratings are. If St. Mary’s ends up with more decisive wins over all 4 of those common opponents or at the very least 3 of the 4 with Folsom included — they‘ve got a very legitimate case. I’d make the argument that they’d have a stronger case.

4 common opponents isn’t a small sample size. It’s nearly half of a regular season.

But for those hanging their hats on SoS, we don’t know where SoS will finish yet. But St. Mary’s would undoubtedly receive a huge bump by defeating Folsom, from which Serra has already received a SoS benefit.

So, please, by all means explain away to me again how Serra is the only team in control of their destiny and how they’d have a stronger argument than St. Mary’s under the scenario that their 4 wins against common opponents were in far less decisive fashion?

I realize that Serra will have beaten good teams in their playoff bracket too, but c’mon. Is that really enough to overcome 4 decisive wins over the same teams and two of which Serra nearly lost to?

I’m not seeing it.

You make a fair argument, but it is predicated on a lot of "IF" statements that St. Mary's doesn't have any control over.

In your scenario, Serra has to beat St. Ignatius by a less decisive margin than St. Mary's did. Serra is in control of that. St. Mary's is not.

St. Mary's would also need to face Folsom in the D1 finals and defeat them by a more decisive margin. St. Mary's does not have control over whether Folsom makes it to the finals. A win over a team that beat Folsom will probably not carry the same weight. Folsom's loss would be seen as an "upset" and a one-off.

So IF everything lines up for St. Mary's and things beyond their control occur, THEN you have a point.

Serra controls its destiny. They just have to take care of the business in front of them.

 

[FBAddict]

That’s just not true.

At this very moment Serra-SM and St. Mary’s-Stockton have 2 common opponents in Central Catholic-Modesto and De La Salle. The Rams beat both those teams in far more decisive fashion.

Let’s assume for a moment both Serra and St. Mary’s remain undefeated and win their respective sections.

At the very least, they will have 3 common opponents between them (St. Ignatius-SF) and quite possibly a 4th (Folsom).

IDC what their SoS ratings are. If St. Mary’s ends up with more decisive wins over all 4 of those common opponents or at the very least 3 of the 4 with Folsom included — they‘ve got a very legitimate case. I’d make the argument that they’d have a stronger case.

4 common opponents isn’t a small sample size. It’s nearly half of a regular season.

But for those hanging their hats on SoS, we don’t know where SoS will finish yet. But St. Mary’s would undoubtedly receive a huge bump by defeating Folsom, from which Serra has already received a SoS benefit.

So, please, by all means explain away to me again how Serra is the only team in control of their destiny and how they’d have a stronger argument than St. Mary’s under the scenario that their 4 wins against common opponents were in far less decisive fashion?

I realize that Serra will have beaten good teams in their playoff bracket too, but c’mon. Is that really enough to overcome 4 decisive wins over the same teams and two of which Serra nearly lost to?

I’m not seeing it.

Good argument for St. Mary's

 

[bulldogmgc]

I know for a fact that St. Mary’s does not care if they are a candidate for the Open whether it’s now or at end of season. All they care about is the game next week vs Tracy. After that, Tokay, and after the Lincoln-Stockton. One game at a time, one play at a time.

If at the end of the season, if at the end of the playoffs, they exit undefeated, they will NOT care where they land in regards to regional game or Open game. Just put a team in front of them on the field and that’s who they will focus on playing and trying to beat. The DLS victory was a tremendous highlight for this season and for the school’s history in the sport. But, it also was just another game on the schedule. On to the next one!

Side note: As a SM fan, I personally don’t mind if Serra gets chosen over the SJS-D1 section champion this year to represent NorCal in the Open. All I can say is that as a fan that I am very proud of the success this young Rams team is having so far. Not going to worry about any Open game nor even how the playoff seeding goes. Just put a team in front of us and watch us play. It’s a ton of fun! Good luck everyone! GO RAMS!!!

 

[ThunderRam]

Decisive wins are not supposed to be considered. However, I do tend to agree that if SM beats Folsom for the SJS D-I title, the Rams would be a strong choice.

A wildcard, though, could be if Serra beats both Wilcox and Salinas while they were both undefeated. The CIF voters have seemed to like it when you beat an undefeated team in the playoffs, but haven't really shown a propensity to do a great deal of research regarding those unbeaten teams.

A second wildcard, however, is that the SJS voter seems to tend to fight for their teams stronger than does the CCS voter.

I think that ultimately, as long as SM beats Folsom for the SJS title, they would be chosen for the Open. If the Bulldogs get upset prior to that meeting, then I think Serra goes.

I fully agree with your conclusion. If both teams finish undefeated, the Rams likely have to add Folsom to their list of ‘W’s’ in order to bypass Serra. And it probably doesn’t have to be more decisive. But I just believe that’d cement things.

Also agreed that decisive wins aren’t supposed to be considered but I’m not convinced that human voters aren’t swayed by it. I believe it can play a role. And when there are potentially 4 common opponents between them it can play a greater role.

What would be interesting is if Del Oro beats Folsom and runs the D2 table and finishes undefeated. Then let’s say DLS loses a 4th time in the NCS playoffs. Both of Serra‘s marquee wins would take further hits, with 4-loss DLS being the bigger hit. Both Serra and DO would share wins over Folsom and who knows how the SoS gap between them might bridge between now and then.

Lots of football still to be played and potentially interesting things to come.

 

[ThunderRam]

If Del Oro upsets Folsom this week, St. Mary's could then play an even larger role. Should the Eagles beat the Rams for the SJS title, that actually should be considered better than Serra beating DLS.

Right. In my previous reply I didn’t even consider Del Oro being D1, as they historically have been in D2 or D3, but they’d have to be D1 with the changes made a few years back. It keeps slipping my mind.

That actually works out better in Del Oro’s favor (WRT their Open candidacy). Participating in D1 as league champ not only potentially sets up a game against an undefeated league champ St. Mary’s, but also a rematch with Folsom. I don’t believe Folsom could get pushed down to D2.

 

[BigMann08]

You guys are presenting some great scenarios! With that said, there’s a ton of football still left to be played. Honestly, I’d hate to be the team going to the Open hahahahaha

 

[ThunderRam]

Understanding rules is not his strong point.

The CIF voters made it clear that the main criterion used was common opponents. I'm unsure whether anything else especially seemed to matter. Serra had a win over St. Francis and the Lancers had beaten DLS. That SF win automatically placed the Spartans behind the two CCS D-I finalists, regardless of anyone else's emotional projections or claims.

Yes sir. While they both had a loss to St. Francis, Serra owned the lone W over them.

Also, agreed about your take on Folsom. As good as that team may be, that loss to Serra is gonna be tough to overcome. Maybe impossible. Serra would have to lose in the CCS postseason IMO. A regular season loss wouldn’t be enough for Folsom to overcome the Padres.

At this point, really only St. Mary’s and Del Oro have a realistic shot at the OPEN from the SJS. Neither has lost to Serra and both could add a W over Folsom and each other.

But of all potential teams — who would give Mater Dei or SJB the best matchup in the OPEN? The obvious answer: NONE of the above. Lol.

Maybe Folsom was playing the strategic long game when they lost to Serra.

 

[ThunderRam]

You make a fair argument, but it is predicated on a lot of "IF" statements that St. Mary's doesn't have any control over.

In your scenario, Serra has to beat St. Ignatius by a less decisive margin than St. Mary's did. Serra is in control of that. St. Mary's is not.

St. Mary's would also need to face Folsom in the D1 finals and defeat them by a more decisive margin. St. Mary's does not have control over whether Folsom makes it to the finals. A win over a team that beat Folsom will probably not carry the same weight. Folsom's loss would be seen as an "upset" and a one-off.

So IF everything lines up for St. Mary's and things beyond their control occur, THEN you have a point.

Serra controls its destiny. They just have to take care of the business in front of them.

No, I don’t believe the Serra-St. Ignatius game will matter much. Just pointing out that it could add to St. Mary’s case.

I firmly believe the decisive wins they already have and the one they could add against Folsom would suffice. As Cal14 pointed out, those differences in decisiveness aren’t supposed to factor in but I feel human voters could be swayed by it.

While you’re correct — facing Folsom and/or undefeated Del Oro in SJS D1 isn’t within their control — facing one of them is still quite likely.

But the same lack of control argument can be made for Serra. While they own wins over both Folsom and DLS, they aren’t in control of what those teams do the rest of the season — which can drastically affect the impact of their marque wins.

What if Folsom loses to Del Oro next week (or to someone else) and DLS incurs a 4th loss in NCS play? Suddenly Serra’s wins over them aren’t so marquee anymore which can further open the door for Del Oro, St. Mary’s or the Central Section Champ.

With all that in mind, perhaps it’s more accurate to say that not one single team has control over their destiny right now. There’s just too much season left to play and even winning out and going undefeated doesn’t guarantee a thing.

 

[Cal 14]

You guys are presenting some great scenarios! With that said, there’s a ton of football still left to be played. Honestly, I’d hate to be the team going to the Open hahahahaha

As a Salinas alum, St. Mary's beating DLS was the best thing that could have happened! 😁

 

[Cal 14]

Yes sir. While they both had a loss to St. Francis, Serra owned the lone W over them.

Also, agreed about your take on Folsom. As good as that team may be, that loss to Serra is gonna be tough to overcome. Maybe impossible. Serra would have to lose in the CCS postseason IMO. A regular season loss wouldn’t be enough for Folsom to overcome the Padres.

At this point, really only St. Mary’s and Del Oro have a realistic shot at the OPEN from the SJS. Neither has lost to Serra and both could add a W over Folsom and each other.

But of all potential teams — who would give Mater Dei or SJB the best matchup in the OPEN? The obvious answer: NONE of the above. Lol.

Maybe Folsom was playing the strategic long game when they lost to Serra.

I had a similar thought about Menlo-Atherton's loss to Half Moon Bay.

 

[colhenrylives]

Strength of schedule has to have some bearing on all of this. For Serra, the question becomes: How strong is the WCAL and CCS overall compared to the SMS overall schedule and the SJS?

 

[ThunderRam]

You guys are presenting some great scenarios! With that said, there’s a ton of football still left to be played. Honestly, I’d hate to be the team going to the Open hahahahaha

Exactly.

You know the long running joke around here is that there’s no chance Folsom wants any part of the OPEN as they’d have zero chance to hang another State banner.

As a tangential topic, now that DLS looks to no longer own the path to the CA OPEN there really needs to be a grassroots effort to bring back the NorCal Regional OPEN game. IMO it is needed now more than ever.

The way the things are down South these days with MD and SJB, the CA OPEN game isn’t the Super Bowl for the North anymore but the NorCal Regional OPEN would be.

In fact, let’s move to discontinue the CA OPEN game and just end the season with the NorCal Regional OPEN. Allow whomever wins the SoCal D1 OPEN (formerly PAC-5) to be declared State Champs.

I mean, why not?

They discontinued the NorCal Regional OPEN after only 2 years due to competitive reasons so why not do the same for the CA OPEN? It’s actually a much larger competitive disadvantage than DLS vs. the NorCal field ever was.

The benefit would be that we’d get a true NorCal Champ. And those kids wouldn’t then get thrown to the wolves against an all-star team made up of SoCal’s very best players, along with whatever all-stars they attracted from NorCal and other States.

Let’s do it. Let’s start a grassroots campaign to bring back the NorCal Regional OPEN and discontinue the CA OPEN!

Who’s with me??????

 

[bulldogmgc]

Strength of schedule has to have some bearing on all of this. For Serra, the question becomes: How strong is the WCAL and CCS overall compared to the SMS overall schedule and the SJS?

SOS for SMS overall schedule is not so great outside of common opponents with Serra. I’m not sure their path in SJS D1 playoffs is going to increase it enough to catch up to Serra’s SOS, especially if DLS loses again.

Here’s another reason why St. Mary’s isn’t so concerned about all of this logic being shared here on NorCalPreps … the CIF and the different sections don’t always use much logic in their decision making when picking the teams, let alone the seeding sometimes in the playoffs.

So, although “trying” to determine who deserves to be the Open rep is a lot of fun, just hope everyone doing so will be okay when the CIF and the respective sections make a decision that is not aligned with their own, especially someone we all know. Might need a lot of lollipops! 😉

 

[THEOC89]

Exactly.

You know the long running joke around here is that there’s no chance Folsom wants any part of the OPEN as they’d have zero chance to hang another State banner.

As a tangential topic, now that DLS looks to no longer own the path to the CA OPEN there really needs to be a grassroots effort to bring back the NorCal Regional OPEN game. IMO it is needed now more than ever.

The way the things are down South these days with MD and SJB, the CA OPEN game isn’t the Super Bowl for the North anymore but the NorCal Regional OPEN would be.

In fact, let’s move to discontinue the CA OPEN game and just end the season with the NorCal Regional OPEN. Allow whomever wins the SoCal D1 OPEN (formerly PAC-5) to be declared State Champs.

I mean, why not?

They discontinued the NorCal Regional OPEN after only 2 years due to competitive reasons so why not do the same for the CA OPEN? It’s actually a much larger competitive disadvantage than DLS vs. the NorCal field ever was.

The benefit would be that we’d get a true NorCal Champ. And those kids wouldn’t then get thrown to the wolves against an all-star team made up of SoCal’s very best players, along with whatever all-stars they attracted from NorCal and other States.

Let’s do it. Let’s start a grassroots campaign to bring back the NorCal Regional OPEN and discontinue the CA OPEN!

Who’s with me??????

“Clearly” a GREAT Idea!!!!…. I Luv it, I am in!!!!!..🤣🍻

 

[larry legend33]

Exactly.

You know the long running joke around here is that there’s no chance Folsom wants any part of the OPEN as they’d have zero chance to hang another State banner.

As a tangential topic, now that DLS looks to no longer own the path to the CA OPEN there really needs to be a grassroots effort to bring back the NorCal Regional OPEN game. IMO it is needed now more than ever.

The way the things are down South these days with MD and SJB, the CA OPEN game isn’t the Super Bowl for the North anymore but the NorCal Regional OPEN would be.

In fact, let’s move to discontinue the CA OPEN game and just end the season with the NorCal Regional OPEN. Allow whomever wins the SoCal D1 OPEN (formerly PAC-5) to be declared State Champs.

I mean, why not?

They discontinued the NorCal Regional OPEN after only 2 years due to competitive reasons so why not do the same for the CA OPEN? It’s actually a much larger competitive disadvantage than DLS vs. the NorCal field ever was.

The benefit would be that we’d get a true NorCal Champ. And those kids wouldn’t then get thrown to the wolves against an all-star team made up of SoCal’s very best players, along with whatever all-stars they attracted from NorCal and other States.

Let’s do it. Let’s start a grassroots campaign to bring back the NorCal Regional OPEN and discontinue the CA OPEN!

Who’s with me??????

Honestly, that is a great idea TR. I mean it makes a lot of sense and holds more value to me.

 

[M.C. fan]

It is all speculative and possible. I'm not sure after week 9 and beyond the league battles, rivalries rendered and playoff games played which teams will be d1 section champs from NCS, CCS, SJS, and CS. Who will be the Darkhorse team to implode the current Favorites. Who will rank supreme? Too early for me to be convinced that any team is walking it in. I see battles about to abrupt, footballs fumbled, passes picked-off and home teams dismayed. Favorites the pressure is on you, Under dogs are you barking?

 

[ThunderRam]

Strength of schedule has to have some bearing on all of this. For Serra, the question becomes: How strong is the WCAL and CCS overall compared to the SMS overall schedule and the SJS?

It does. But it is also volatile until the end of the season. Serra’s SoS could go down if Folsom and DLS lose again and St. Mary’s and Del Oro’s could go up if they beat Folsom and/or each other. And Serra could get bumps from the likes of Salinas or Wilcox.

We’re all speculating from a multitude of variables.

 

[ThunderRam]

I’m not sure their path in SJS D1 playoffs is going to increase it enough to catch up to Serra’s SOS, especially if DLS loses again.

Suppose Del Oro beats Folsom and goes on to win the SFL (as Rocklin did last season).

Conceivably St. Mary’s could face both of them in SJS D1. Taking out undefeated Del Oro and 2-loss Folsom (which is currently one of Serra’s marquee wins) surely would help boost SoS and the Rams case.

And if DLS loses again, it lessens the impact of that win for both teams. And if Folsom loses again, possibly lessens the impact for just Serra should the Rams not face them. But at worst lessens for both teams again.

However as Cal14 pointed out, a St. Mary’s win over an undefeated Del Oro could potentially be the best win on either’s resume when all is said and done.

Lots of variables still to be played out.

 

[BigMann08]

Exactly.

You know the long running joke around here is that there’s no chance Folsom wants any part of the OPEN as they’d have zero chance to hang another State banner.

As a tangential topic, now that DLS looks to no longer own the path to the CA OPEN there really needs to be a grassroots effort to bring back the NorCal Regional OPEN game. IMO it is needed now more than ever.

The way the things are down South these days with MD and SJB, the CA OPEN game isn’t the Super Bowl for the North anymore but the NorCal Regional OPEN would be.

In fact, let’s move to discontinue the CA OPEN game and just end the season with the NorCal Regional OPEN. Allow whomever wins the SoCal D1 OPEN (formerly PAC-5) to be declared State Champs.

I mean, why not?

They discontinued the NorCal Regional OPEN after only 2 years due to competitive reasons so why not do the same for the CA OPEN? It’s actually a much larger competitive disadvantage than DLS vs. the NorCal field ever was.

The benefit would be that we’d get a true NorCal Champ. And those kids wouldn’t then get thrown to the wolves against an all-star team made up of SoCal’s very best players, along with whatever all-stars they attracted from NorCal and other States.

Let’s do it. Let’s start a grassroots campaign to bring back the NorCal Regional OPEN and discontinue the CA OPEN!

Who’s with me??????

This is a great idea. There is great parity in NorCal. Our teams have absolutely no chance of beating MD and SJB as their programs are currently constructed.

Let the NorCal teams duke it out!

 

[MTsince2004]

Okay, I wasn't going to say anything, but come on.

I have no problem with re-instituting the Open play-in game in NorCal (and SoCal). Great idea, actually.

However, to crown a SoCal team state champ without them having to play a game vs the NorCal representative, even a game you are sure they will win by 50 points? Come on.

That's like that time four years ago when most of the SFL teams went on record in the Sac Bee and said they couldn't beat Folsom so they wanted them out of the league.

It's unbecoming of competitive sports.

Change the rules to make things fairer? Sure. Change the structure of the state playoffs to de-emphasize North vs South? Okay. Just don't play the game? Nah.

 

[bulldogmgc]

Okay, I wasn't going to say anything, but come on.

I have no problem with re-instituting the Open play-in game in NorCal (and SoCal). Great idea, actually.

However, to crown a SoCal team state champ without them having to play a game vs the NorCal representative, even a game you are sure they will win by 50 points? Come on.

That's like that time four years ago when most of the SFL teams went on record in the Sac Bee and said they couldn't beat Folsom so they wanted them out of the league.

It's unbecoming of competitive sports.

Change the rules to make things fairer? Sure. Change the structure of the state playoffs to de-emphasize North vs South? Okay. Just don't play the game? Nah.

Agree! This is no different than why the NorCal Open regional championship is no longer played … because some team was afraid of losing to DLS again and again and again. Let’s not be afraid, please.

Keep the Open state game in and return to playing the NorCal Open game is my vote.

 

[FBAddict]

Okay, I wasn't going to say anything, but come on.

I have no problem with re-instituting the Open play-in game in NorCal (and SoCal). Great idea, actually.

However, to crown a SoCal team state champ without them having to play a game vs the NorCal representative, even a game you are sure they will win by 50 points? Come on.

That's like that time four years ago when most of the SFL teams went on record in the Sac Bee and said they couldn't beat Folsom so they wanted them out of the league.

It's unbecoming of competitive sports.

Change the rules to make things fairer? Sure. Change the structure of the state playoffs to de-emphasize North vs South? Okay. Just don't play the game? Nah.

Glad to see your reply to the SoCal only Open comments. I really dislike rules that are made to address temporary situations. The Folsom rule was one of them. To allow a rule that states that Open division is only for SoCal will come back to haunt us later. It may not seem temporary now that the SS section Trinity league is unbeatable - but eventually that trend will change too.

Also, the SoCal Open only rule will likely wipe out the top two regional teams for SoCal. Theoretically that pits the 25th best SoCal team against the top NorCal team. Its a bad idea all around for the top CIF State title. For now, it seems inconceivable that the eventual SS D1 team will lose to a NorCal top team - so be it until it changes.

What really needs to change is the consistency of transfer rules throughout CIF.

 

[colhenrylives]

1. Serra
2. Folsom

3. Everyone else

No. Unbeaten SMS is No.2. One-loss Folsom is No.3. That may well change down the line. But, for now, those are the top three. Defeats cannot be shrugged off as irrelevant to suit a particular bias. Sorry.

 

[pastyfastquick3]

No. Unbeaten SMS is No.2. One-loss Folsom is No.3. That may well change down the line. But, for now, those are the top three. Defeats cannot be shrugged off as irrelevant to suit a particular bias. Sorry.

No.

SoS matters. Context and style matters.

1. Serra
2. Folsom

Everyone else.