So CalPreps ie: the computers have Serra as roughly a 5 TD underdog to SJB 41-7 and we all know that last year in the same game Serra lost to Mater Dei by 44-7.
SJB is #1 in CA and #1 ranked nationally while Serra is #6 in CA and #54 nationally. The big question of course is will the game be any different this evening or simply a replay of last years' game?
I looked at last years' Serra team vs this year and also SJB this year versus Mater Dei last season to see how the 2 teams will face off later today & here's what the stats & ratings indicate:
2022 Serra Padres
* Ranked #6 in state vs #10 last season.
* This season 13-0 to date vs 11-2 last season.
* The power rating favors last seasons' Padres by 63.6 over this seasons Padres 62.0.
* Strength of Schedule also favors last seasons Padres by 46..5 to this season 33.4 [MD game factored in is the difference as Serra's SOS will jump up after tonights game].
* 2021 PAdres lost to Mater Dei by +37 points and SJB tonight is favored by +34 points.
* 22 Padres avg 36.5 point offense per game while last seasons team avg 33.1 [difference of 3.4 points per game].
* 22 Padres allow 11.8 points per game on Defense while last seasons teeam allowed 16.2 points per game [difference of 4.4 PPG].
* In last seasons' game vs Mater Dei the Padres fell behind 24-0 at 1/2, 3rd quarter 37-7 and final 44-7.
* Against Mater Dei Serra ran 59 plays to 47 for Mater Dei and dominated time of possession by 32 minutes to 16 min for MD, yet could not stop MD offense from big plays.
Conclusion: the 2022 Serra Padres are close to where the 2021 team ended. This Serra team 2022 is slightly better on both offense & defense given the same number of games. The biggest factor may be
the QB as last season Serra had Dom Lampkin a duel-threat QB who was unpredictable running while this season the Padres are led by Maeliuaki Smith more of a classic drop back QB. While both ofthese QB's were/are ranked highly in QB ratings this years' QB Smith has thrown over twice the number of TD's vs Lampkin last season - 34 by Smith vs 14 for Lampkin last season [Lampkin also rushed for 8 TD's vs 0 for Smith].
2022 St. John Bosco Braves
* SJB #1 in state & #1 nationally same as Mater Dei last season.
* SJB power rating is 90.7 vs MD's 103.8 last season.
* SJB SOS for this season is 60 vs MD's 70.5 last season.
* SJB offense this season 42.0 PPG vs 45.6 last season for MD [difference of 3.6 PPG].
* SJB Defense allowed 8.5 PPG this season vs MD 12.6 last season [difference of 4.1 PPG ].
Conclusion: Like the 2 different Serra teams the last 2 seasons there does not appear to be a great deal of difference between MD last season or the St. John Bosco team Serra will face this evening. Loaded with talent at all positions SJB uses a multitude of both RB's & WR's as well as rotating many players on D due to incredible team depth
Prediction: It's difficult to see much of a change from last seasons' outcome vs Mater Dei based upon the disparity of college level talent on the 2 teams [SJB has 45 players with college offers]. Serra in their tougher games this season has def been a 2nd 1/2 team [a tale of 2 teams it seemed in several games such as both Mitty games, playing to the level of their oppenent before "waking up" in the 2nd 1/2.
Should the Padres come out slow in this game I do not see a resurrection taking place in the 2nd 1/2 against the likes of SJB [simply too much talent]. However this is an excellent Serra team and perhaps the best team to ever take the field at Serra so there is always "hope" and why the game is played.
SJB 35-16
SJB is #1 in CA and #1 ranked nationally while Serra is #6 in CA and #54 nationally. The big question of course is will the game be any different this evening or simply a replay of last years' game?
I looked at last years' Serra team vs this year and also SJB this year versus Mater Dei last season to see how the 2 teams will face off later today & here's what the stats & ratings indicate:
2022 Serra Padres
* Ranked #6 in state vs #10 last season.
* This season 13-0 to date vs 11-2 last season.
* The power rating favors last seasons' Padres by 63.6 over this seasons Padres 62.0.
* Strength of Schedule also favors last seasons Padres by 46..5 to this season 33.4 [MD game factored in is the difference as Serra's SOS will jump up after tonights game].
* 2021 PAdres lost to Mater Dei by +37 points and SJB tonight is favored by +34 points.
* 22 Padres avg 36.5 point offense per game while last seasons team avg 33.1 [difference of 3.4 points per game].
* 22 Padres allow 11.8 points per game on Defense while last seasons teeam allowed 16.2 points per game [difference of 4.4 PPG].
* In last seasons' game vs Mater Dei the Padres fell behind 24-0 at 1/2, 3rd quarter 37-7 and final 44-7.
* Against Mater Dei Serra ran 59 plays to 47 for Mater Dei and dominated time of possession by 32 minutes to 16 min for MD, yet could not stop MD offense from big plays.
Conclusion: the 2022 Serra Padres are close to where the 2021 team ended. This Serra team 2022 is slightly better on both offense & defense given the same number of games. The biggest factor may be
the QB as last season Serra had Dom Lampkin a duel-threat QB who was unpredictable running while this season the Padres are led by Maeliuaki Smith more of a classic drop back QB. While both ofthese QB's were/are ranked highly in QB ratings this years' QB Smith has thrown over twice the number of TD's vs Lampkin last season - 34 by Smith vs 14 for Lampkin last season [Lampkin also rushed for 8 TD's vs 0 for Smith].
2022 St. John Bosco Braves
* SJB #1 in state & #1 nationally same as Mater Dei last season.
* SJB power rating is 90.7 vs MD's 103.8 last season.
* SJB SOS for this season is 60 vs MD's 70.5 last season.
* SJB offense this season 42.0 PPG vs 45.6 last season for MD [difference of 3.6 PPG].
* SJB Defense allowed 8.5 PPG this season vs MD 12.6 last season [difference of 4.1 PPG ].
Conclusion: Like the 2 different Serra teams the last 2 seasons there does not appear to be a great deal of difference between MD last season or the St. John Bosco team Serra will face this evening. Loaded with talent at all positions SJB uses a multitude of both RB's & WR's as well as rotating many players on D due to incredible team depth
Prediction: It's difficult to see much of a change from last seasons' outcome vs Mater Dei based upon the disparity of college level talent on the 2 teams [SJB has 45 players with college offers]. Serra in their tougher games this season has def been a 2nd 1/2 team [a tale of 2 teams it seemed in several games such as both Mitty games, playing to the level of their oppenent before "waking up" in the 2nd 1/2.
Should the Padres come out slow in this game I do not see a resurrection taking place in the 2nd 1/2 against the likes of SJB [simply too much talent]. However this is an excellent Serra team and perhaps the best team to ever take the field at Serra so there is always "hope" and why the game is played.
SJB 35-16
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