Awesome work! So looks like this season all At-Large teams will come from A leagues throughout the section?

Do you happen to have the point values for the top ten at large teams like you had posted previously in this thread? Thank you for your efforts in providing this insight for all of us!

PALbooster said:

Gabilan

Soquel, Salinas and Monterey all have guaranteed spots. Soquel wins the league outright with a win over Aptos or a Salinas loss to Hollister. Alvarez’s week 9 upset win over Hollister has jumbled the bottom of this league. Aptos can do no worse than tie for fourth with the winner of the Palma and Alverez game. Hollister can make this a three way tie if they win over Salinas. Alvarez does not have an avenue to make the play-offs. I still see Aptos, Hollister and Palma getting in regardless of week 10 results with one getting an automic bid and the other two getting at-large berths.

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Longtime follower. Thank you for everything over the years. Question. If Alvarez upsets Palma on Friday night, finishing in 5th place in the Gab ahead of Hollister and Palma, you still have Alvarez missing the playoffs?

ClayK said:

That was fast -- now we would need four more to get to 104 teams.

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Who is in the plainum division?

CCSFB98 said:

From the PAL Football bylaws- https://www.smcoe.org/assets/files/About_FIL/Peninsula Athletic League_FIL/Bylaws_FIL/footballbylaw.pdf

11. CCS PLAYOFFS 11.1. The top 5 finishers in the Bay, the top 3 finishers in the DeAnza, the top 2 finishers in the Ocean and El Camino divisions and the top finisher in the Lake division shall enter the CCS Football Playoffs as the league's automatic qualifiers.

In addition, in determining Automatic Qualifiers, the third place Ocean Division team and the second place El Camino Division team will be considered tied for the 4th and final B league Automatic Qualifier. If an automatic qualifier chooses to not participate in the CCS Play-offs, the next team in rank order from that division will be offered the automatic qualifying berth. This procedure will continue until the automatic qualifying berths are filled.

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Thanks for posting this - not clear how they break this tie - I assume head-to-head then CCS points, then Cal-prep rankings.

CCS play-off projections with one week to go

Lots of upsets in week 9 leaving many more teams with a chance to make the field based on final week results. I show 25 teams have clinched spots regardless of week 10 results and there are 26 teams fighting for the last 15 positions.

Open/D1

Even with Wilcox upsetting Los Gatos 19-14 and three other teams projected into the open losing in head-to-head match ups with Soquel beating Salinas 34-14, Riordan beating Serra 27-20 and St. Francis beating Valley Christian 35-17 – the field remained the same with some seeding changes. I don’t see Wilcox jumping Salinas for the 8th spot unless Salinas losses in week 10 to Holister.

8. Salinas 8-2 66 (7) at 1. St. Francis 9-1 81 (1)

7. Valley Christian 5-5 68 (6) at 2. St. Ignatius 8-2 76 (2)

Winners of Round 1 play for open championship – loser of open championship plays winner of round two game below for D1 championship.

6. Riordan 5-5 69 (8) at 3. Serra 5-5 73 (4)

5. Soquel 8-2 70 (5) at 4. Los Gatos 8-2 72.5 (3)

D2

A few upsets in this division as well but only change to the field is Santa Teresa moving to D3 and Capuchino moving up to D2.

8. Palma 5-5 50.5 (7)* (8) at 1. Wilcox 8-2 65 (1)

5. Monterey 6-4 53 (5) at 4. Menlo-Atherton 6-4 54.5 (3)

6. Menlo School 7-3 53 (6) at 3. Christopher 9-1 57 (2)

7. Capuchino 9-1 52.5 (3 in D3) at 2. Sacred Heart Cathedral 4-6 59 (4)

* Elevated to D2 as no B league team can play in D1 or D2

D3

Only change to the field here was Capuchino going up and Santa Teresa moving down to this division.

8. Piedmont Hills 8-2 40.5 (7) at 1. Carmel 10-0 59* (1)

5. Palo Alto 5-5 44 (5) at 4. Half Moon Bay 8-2 45.5 (6)

6. Hollister 4-6 43 (4) at 3. Willow Glen 10-0 47.5 (2)

7. Burlingame 7-3 41.5 (8) at 2. Santa Teresa 9-1 50.5 (8 in D2)

Dropped to D3 as no B league team can play in DI or D2

D4

Sacred Heart Prep replaces Sobrato as the final at-large field in this week’s projections.

8. Live Oak 3-7 28** (8) at 1. Aptos 5-5 39.5 (1)

5. San Mateo 7-3 33 (2) at 4. North Salinas 7-3 35 (4)

6. Hillsdale 5-5 31.5 (6) at 3. Branham 7-3 38 (3)

7. South San Francisco 8-2 31 (7) at 2. Sacred Heart Prep 4-6 38.5 (NR)

Elevated to D4 as no A league team can be in D5 and all C league teams must be in D5.

D5

Three new teams here as Overfelt replaced Pioneer, Stevenson replaced San Lorenzo Valley, and Sequoia has guaranteed a spot in the field and replaced Woodside as three spots were allocated to the Ocean Division.

• 8. Gunderson 7-3 19 (8) at 1. North Monterey County 7-3 28.5 (5)
• 5. Alisal 5-5 22 (2) at 4. Gunn 10-0 23.5 (7)
• 6. Stevenson 7-2 21.7 (NR) at 3. Leland 6-3 25.9 (3)
• 7. Overfelt 5-5 20.5 (NR) at 2. Sequoia 5-5 28 (NR)

WCAL

The top five teams have all guaranteed play-off spots (St. Francis, St. Ignatius, Valley Christian, Riordan and Serra) regardless of their results in week 10. St. Francis winns the league outright with either a win over Valley Christian or an SI loss to Mitty. All five of these teams are likely to be in the Open/D1 play-off division. The last play-off spot is still open. Sacred Heart Cathedral gets the spot with a win over Bellarmine. Mitty gets the spot if they beat SI and SHC losses to Bellarmine. In the case where both teams lose it will create a three way tie for 6th. SHC and Mitty are likely to have the same number of CCS points in this scenario (although that could change based on week 10 results elsewhere). I’m not sure at that point if they go to head-to-head or Calprep ranking. SHC won head-to-head. If they both lose it is likely Mitty will be ahead in Calprep ranking. The 6thpalce team will likely be a high D2 seed.

PAL-Bay

Wilcox upset Los Gatos 19-14 and will win the league outright with either a win over Menlo-Atherton this week or a Los Gatos loss to Palo Alto. Wilcox, Los Gatos and Menlo-Atherton all have guaranteed play-off spots. Menlo, Palo Alto and Sacred Heart Prep all control their own fate. The winner of the Valpo Bowl between Menlo and Sacred Heart Prep will get an automatic berth. If Palo Alto scores an unlikely upset of Los Gatos they get in. If Palo Alto loses they win a head-to-head tiebreaker with SHP but not Menlo. Whoever is the odd man out is likely to ge the last at-large berth.

Gabilan

Soquel, Salinas and Monterey all have guaranteed spots. Soquel wins the league outright with a win over Aptos or a Salinas loss to Hollister. Alvarez’s week 9 upset win over Hollister has jumbled the bottom of this league. Aptos can do no worse than tie for fourth with the winner of the Palma and Alverez game. Hollister can make this a three way tie if they win over Salinas. Alvarez does not have an avenue to make the play-offs. I still see Aptos, Hollister and Palma getting in regardless of week 10 results with one getting an automic bid and the other two getting at-large berths.

Mount Hamilton

Christopher and Santa Teresa have clinched play-off berths. Christopher wins the league outright with a win over Live Oak or Santa Teresa loss to Oak Grove. Three teams still are competing for the last two spots. Leigh plays at Branham. If Branham wins Branham and Live Oak get the last two spots. If Leigh wins they either end up in a three way tiebreaker with Branham if Live Oak losses that would put Branham and Leigh into the play-offs or if Live Oak wins a two way tie with Branham where they win the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Tehre will not be an at-large team from this league.

PAL-Deanza

Capuchino and Burlingame have secured their play-off spots. Capuchino plays at Kings Academy in Week 10. If Capuchino wins they are sole league champion. If Kings Academy wins they are Co-champions and make the play-offs. If Kings Academy losses they still make the play-offs with a Hillsdale loss to Aragon. However, a Kings Academy loss and Hillsdale win creates a three-way tie for two spots. In that case Burlingame and Hillsdale would get the two spots. Interesting question if Kings Academy should get a point for Rio Honda Prep being a league champion given that Rio Honda Prep only plays in a three team league.

PAL Ocean

Sequoia and San Mateo clinched play-off berths. Sequoia beat Sna Mateo in overtime and win the league outright with a week 10 win over Carlmont ( who is ranked higher in Calpreps despite being in fourth place in league). A Sequoia loss will make them co-champions with San Mateo. It is murky but the PAL by-laws have an ambiguous statement that the third place Ocean team is tied for play-off consideration with the second place El Camino team. If Half Moon Bay beats Terra Nova they will be the third place Ocean team and hold a head-to- head win over Woodside who is second in the El Camino as well as having more CCS point sand a higher Calprep ranking. I have put HMB in the field as an automatic berth and kept Woodside out on this basis. IF I have read this wrong, HMB would have a good chance of getting the final out large spot over the sixth place finisher in the PAL-Bay division.

Mission South

Everything done here with Carmel and North Salinas as the two teams progressing to the play-offs. Carmel wins league outright with win over Pacific Grove or is Co-champion with a loss.

Mission North

North Monterey County has won one of the two spots and is outright league champion with a week 10 over Watsonville. The other three teams (Monte Vista Christian, St. Francis and Alisal) all have two league losses still have a chance at the second spot. MVC and St. Francis play each other and the loser will be out. Alisal would get the second spot with a week 10 win over Scotts Valley and a NMC win as Alisal wins a two way tiebreaker over both MVC and St. Francis. However Alisal would lose a three way tie-breaker with NMC and MVC (But be in a three way tiebreaker with St. Francis and NMC). St. Francis can only get in by winning in week 10 and Alisal losing in week 10.

Valley

Willow Glen and Leland are both undefeated in league play and play each other this week. Both will make the play-offs. The winner will be sole league champion

Foothill

Piedmont Hills has clinched a berth. Overfelt beat Pioneer 18-17 in week 9 and make the play-offs if they beat Silver Creek. If Silver Creek and Pioneer win in week 10 Pioneer wins a three way tiebreaker. Silver Creek only gets in with a win over Overfelt and a Pioneer loss at Del Mar.

El Camino

South San Francisco has clinched a play-off spot and is sole league champion. Woodside has finished second, but see PAL-Ocean with regard to if this will get them in the play-offs.

Santa Lucia

Stevenson ‘s week 9 win over previsouly undefeated San Lornzo Valley clinchses the leagues sole play-off berth.

Lake

Pretty simple. Gunn and Jefferson play in week 10. Winner wins league outright and goes to play-offs. Loser’s season is over.

West Valley

Gunderson has clinched this league’s sole play-off spot.

It’s those damn Crusaders. They threw a fork in the formula!

Patiently waiting for PALBooster to update brackets!

Adam007 said:

One hallmark trait for St. Francis is their ability to get better thru the season. It's been happening for decades, I remember when they started 0-6 and ended up winning CCS over Oak Grove, who at the time was ranked in the top 25 USA HS Football National Polls.

This team continues to fine tune their run-game week after week. Now their QB Knapp has developed some chemistry with his receivers, opponents can't sleep on their passing game either. I feel confident about winning out thru the rest of WCAL. Riordan likes to pay "too finesse" and is going to get thwarted by SF's direct physical game.

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Riordan's O-line, & RBs Jones and Brown are not "finesse."

iamgearyblvd said:

Its sort of crazy that VC hasnt really had a 3 or 4 star QB there given they had top WR talent in Collin Johnson and Jurrion Dickey.

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It’s been and very long time since VC had a quality QB, the last in my opinion was Dante Perez. McIntyre had potential but after his junior year his dad got the Colorado head coaching job and the family moved. He went on to win all state honors, not sure it was at the QB position though.

FBAddict said:

And similarly hopefully the smart folks won't do just a tiny nudge upward to the detriment of the legitimate teams in that division.

Even after the loss to MC, both CN and MC are rated #4 and #5 in the NCS section. We will see what other ranking serves think after this loss but our own NCP ranking service has CN & MC ranked 4&5 in NCS, excluding El Cerritos of course. And CalHiSports has both CN & MC ranked 4&5 in NCS as well. Its kind of hard to ignore these factors when a sections claims to building a equity based playoff system.

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Thanks Kiddmann for the info. I would like Newman to end up no lower than D2. That is realistically where they probably belong. (Certainly not D4 or D6). Open is probably a stretch especially after that game with MC. What people often overlook is at schools like Newman you got your best players going both ways a lot of the time and even at MC they were able to go much deeper. I think MC has nearly 50 kids. Newman probably has 35 "active" players and DLS, PITT, and SRV have 50+. It makes a huge difference in the 2nd half.
Plus there 2nd guys are usually good and Newman has a big fall off as do a lot of smaller schools.

One thing though... Newman still has to go on road and beat a solid Vintage team who played Windsor and MC tough and is 6-3 on the season. Don't overlook them.

kiddman32 said:

Hopefully, if CN is not deemed an Open or D1 team, some smart folks upstairs at the NCS can figure it out.

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And similarly hopefully the smart folks won't do just a tiny nudge upward to the detriment of the legitimate teams in that division.

Even after the loss to MC, both CN and MC are rated #4 and #5 in the NCS section. We will see what other ranking serves think after this loss but our own NCP ranking service has CN & MC ranked 4&5 in NCS, excluding El Cerritos of course. And CalHiSports has both CN & MC ranked 4&5 in NCS as well. Its kind of hard to ignore these factors when a sections claims to building a equity based playoff system.

kiddman32 said:

Oh, I see I kindasorta repeated what was said above. Don't mind me, I'm just typebabbling...

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Than was good information - thanks

I remember wishing I'd have seen this "for the good" thing in Oregon a good while back... Unfortunately, I can't seem to be 100% sure who it was or what year, despite quality records easily sortable online.

This tiny private school somehow ended up with a couple of stud basketball transfers, likely D1 types... The biggest-name one had gone to at least a couple of other schools in and out of state before transferring to this dinky school... They played a high-level nonleague schedule, then ROMPED thru league, then rolled right on through the state playoffs in one of the lowest divisions to "earn" the title. Players dogpiled at the end as if the win hadn't been easy, it was sort of embarrassing to watch.

I don't think they had even one single-digit game all the way through the rounds. Examples like this are why they need to have humans determine the final bracket levels, no matter what sort of well-managed computerized system set up the seeds originally.

Hopefully, if CN is not deemed an Open or D1 team, some smart folks upstairs at the NCS can figure it out.

Oh, I see I kindasorta repeated what was said above. Don't mind me, I'm just typebabbling...

Here are the placement rules:

The following are the procedures for selection and bracketing.

(NEW!) One committee in football will be selected to review brackets once the teams are seeded using the following formula:

1. Using MaxPreps rankings, teams are placed in a bracket beginning with Open/Division 1. Any school may participate in Open/Division 1, regardless of their base division.

2. Division 2 will then be filled using MaxPreps rankings, followed by Division 3, Division 4, Division 5, etc.

3. Teams may not be moved up or down more than two divisions from their base enrollment division, with the exception of Open/Division 1.

4. Once the brackets are filled, the Seeding Oversight Committee may make adjustments to the brackets for the good of the tournament based upon the NCS Seeding Criteria and process approved by the Board of Managers.

That whole "base division" thing is just that, a base. This base is arrived at strictly using enrollment. CN is in Div. 6, so it looks like Div. 4the highest they can go, unless they are already chosen for Open or Div. 1 using the Maxpreps rankings.

But then, there is that last bit involving that Seeding Oversight Committee. That is a grey area, but it leaves a possibility that CN could go to D2 or D3 "for the good of the tournament".

NCS707 said:

Cardinal Newman and Marin Catholic should always be in the division below DLS and the large school powers. Like they were for many years (3A/D2). Anything lower is ridiculous.

As for how to create the brackets in the NCS, I’m not sure there is a perfect way. The section is too varied. From rural and small publics to large publics with good football programs to large with poor tradition/demographics to privates.


Do SS folks like the format down there? They seems way too extreme with Calpreps. It’s too finicky to go from a 16 seed to a 1 seed and get screwed. I guess at that point all playoff games are “bowl” games. An extra game, you’re not really proving you’re the “best” of anything. You’re just the “best” of section rank #17-32 or whatnot.

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The So Cal Format works really well because there are really only 3 Sections that encompass all of So Cal…. The biggest Section being the “Southern Section” which covers all of So Cal to Bakersfield/Fresno, excluding San Diego and the Small LA Section…..

San Diego and LA are not interested in Competing with MD and SJB for the Open so they Compete for D1AA and Below…. San Diego actually has the best Open Format where their 4 Top Ranked teams compete in Their Open Bracket and the Winner Plays in the D1AA regional game against SS D2 winner…. There is No loser moves on format for the San Diego Bracket…..

Our issue in Nor Cal is we have too many sections so each one has their own interests which makes it impossible to crown a true Champion of Nor Cal because there is no more Open Payoff game….

THEOC89 said:

Exactly!!…. You can’t have that if you are the NCS…. We don’t need to see CN in the D4AA regional or SBG against Nobody Cares….. 🤣

I want to see CN compete against NCS D2 or Better teams…. They are a Flagship Nor Cal program…. They are not some D6 or D4 Program…..

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Cardinal Newman and Marin Catholic should always be in the division below DLS and the large school powers. Like they were for many years (3A/D2). Anything lower is ridiculous.

As for how to create the brackets in the NCS, I’m not sure there is a perfect way. The section is too varied. From rural and small publics to large publics with good football programs to large with poor tradition/demographics to privates.


Do SS folks like the format down there? They seems way too extreme with Calpreps. It’s too finicky to go from a 16 seed to a 1 seed and get screwed. I guess at that point all playoff games are “bowl” games. An extra game, you’re not really proving you’re the “best” of anything. You’re just the “best” of section rank #17-32 or whatnot.

iamgearyblvd said:

If you see what’s going on in college with the transfer portal, one of the primary reasons is because “y” school is willing to pay the player more than “x” school. Transfers are financially motivated. So unless you live under a rock or are that naive to think players are transferring to say, Riordan, because of “brotherhood” and not because of money… then bless your heart.

Riordan doesn’t have unlimited cash. That would be SI. Do not be surprised if SI starts bringing in 10-20 athletic transfers.

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Riordan doesn’t have any transfers this year. The 2027 (11) and 2028 (3) players are making contributions.