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PCAL Week 11

T
NorCalSportsFan said:
Not really homer glasses....

Calpreps has Palma beating Carmel 38-35 (58%) reg season and with playoff bump 40-31 (78%) in neutral fields

Salinas beats Carmel 33-28 (86%)no playoff bump

Soquel beats Carmel 44-17 (96%) and 28-14 with playoffbump 998%)

Strange is Monterey is favored by 1 but not having QB would put them at bigger disadvantage (even though Carmel won in reg season its tough to win against a team twice in a season)

Carmel has 7 and 8pt (playoff) advantage on Hollister and bigger advantage on Aptos.


Carmel defense is its issue from what I have seen. A good ball control team can keep ball out of the Carmel offense which is pretty good and decent defense will slow them down. Take Pacific Grove as an example but most teams in Gab have better defenses. Yes- rivalry game and Carmel was asleep the first half, but PG isn't very good. If they had a better defense I would say should be clear advantage over Palma but they don't. Palma is young but when they play their best games they are tough. They have talent on both sides of the ball. Not saying they will win, but not a given and I think they would match up better.
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Calpreps predictions are the reason I stopped submitting picks in the weekly contest. I used it for teams I had no clue about and loss them all. Point is it's a computer generated prediction based on data. It only meas so much. I'm sure Calpreps had Palma and Salinas beating Carmel in all their other regular season matchups in the past years too.

Give me Carmel 48- Palma 24 all day 😂
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PCAL Week 11

R
The "Golden Era" (pun intended), of Carmel football has always been an outscore you mentality. They play a very blitz happy big play style of defense, and quite frankly can not tackle to save their lives. It has been like that ever since Golden took over the program. He does not like kids to go both ways so majority of top athletes played offense first. But come playoffs he will have kids play on both sides for much longer stretches.

I stand by my statement that Carmel would finish 2nd or 3rd, they already beat the third place team at full strength, and I see them matching up pretty well with Salinas. This years Palma team is not the same as years past. This Carmel team probably wins 7 out of 10 times same with Hollister and Aptos.

I will say this though, Carmel's teams are not used to playing that physical style of football week in and week out, even Alvarez will play physical with you. Carmel doe not have the roster depth the other Gabilan teams have, so 1 or 2 key injuries, and it is a very different team.

Gabilan would of been way more fun this year if Carmel was in it!!
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PCAL Week 11

N
Not really homer glasses....

Calpreps has Palma beating Carmel 38-35 (58%) reg season and with playoff bump 40-31 (78%) in neutral fields

Salinas beats Carmel 33-28 (86%)no playoff bump

Soquel beats Carmel 44-17 (96%) and 28-14 with playoffbump 998%)

Strange is Monterey is favored by 1 but not having QB would put them at bigger disadvantage (even though Carmel won in reg season its tough to win against a team twice in a season)

Carmel has 7 and 8pt (playoff) advantage on Hollister and bigger advantage on Aptos.


Carmel defense is its issue from what I have seen. A good ball control team can keep ball out of the Carmel offense which is pretty good and decent defense will slow them down. Take Pacific Grove as an example but most teams in Gab have better defenses. Yes- rivalry game and Carmel was asleep the first half, but PG isn't very good. If they had a better defense I would say should be clear advantage over Palma but they don't. Palma is young but when they play their best games they are tough. They have talent on both sides of the ball. Not saying they will win, but not a given and I think they would match up better.
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Very Early Look at the CIF Bowl Divisions - 2024

Cal 14
There are a number of interesting story lines and we could see politics play a bigger role than normal this year.

North:

1. What to do about Folsom? Their early season loss to Serra could put them behind either/both St. Ignatius or St. Francis due to those teams' wins over the Padres. I don't suspect that the CCS Open winner would be placed in D-1AA, but you could see Pittsburg moved up and the Bulldogs placed in D-1A.

2. SJS lack of competitive playoff equity on full display, now looks like a significant outlier. Any push by the selection for divisional integrity may fall on deaf ears with Twelve Bridges (D-4) and Bradshaw Christian (D-6) rated higher than Oakdale (D-3).

3. What to do about McClymonds? The CIF voters have steadily moved the Warriors to higher divisions until they pretty much settled on having them be in D-2A. This year, however, has not been a typical year for the Oakland team. Would the committee be willing to drop them all the way down to D-4A?

4. What to do about Clovis East? As was the case last year, numerically, it would make more sense to place the CS D-IAA winner in the south, as not doing so places a heavy advantage for the north in all divisions lower than D-1AA. Placing them in the south creates more parity down the list. I doubt the committee has learned its lesson and will probably keep this division in the north.

South:

1. There seems to be more of a drop-off in ratings in the SS than last year. This could lead to a greater advantage for the north, particularly if the CS D-IAA winner remains absent from the south bracket.

2. What to do about the Bakersfield schools? I'm guessing the CS may do some politicking to make sure their D-IA winner is in a higher bracket than the D-II team. I'm also guessing that the ratings could reverse in order with the IA bracket being tougher overall. Did not notice that these two were in the same league, won by Bakersfield Christian. Swapping them in the list.

3. Retaining intersectional play. In the past, the SS seems to have lobbied to keep their teams from having to eliminate each other in the regional round. This year, they may mostly get this wish granted as the ratings do seem to fall in-line for this to happen. In only one division did there not really seem to be a choice but to have two SS teams face each other.

4. It remains remarkable how low the LACS teams need to be placed among the state brackets. Much of this has to do with the fact that just about everyone and their mothers gets to advance to the playoffs, but as I've noted in previous posts, the section just isn't good at all.

Overall:

1. If all of the section winners elect to participate in the CIF bowl games, we will have complete brackets in both the north and the south. It was not uncommon in years past to have a team have a bye in the regional round.

2. I have five of the seven Central Section teams competing in the south. In addition to the need for more moderately-rated teams in that region, it also balances out and completes the brackets in both regions.
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Very Early Look at the CIF Bowl Divisions - 2024

Cal 14
As it is now playoff season for nearly all CIF sections, it may be time to take a very early look at the potential CIF bowl divisions (for those interested).

As in years past, I will not be making any predictions regarding who might win which division. Rather all of the teams listed are the remaining highest seeds in their respective brackets. For the Oakland and San Francisco sections, the teams listed are those assumed to be the top seeds when they are finally published.

Because the list will be long, my commentary will be in a response to the initial post.


Open Division (Section Division, Calpreps ratings)

North: De La Salle (NCS Open, 67.0) vs. South: Mater Dei (SS D-I, 102.6)

D-1AA

North: Folsom (SJS D-1, 59.3) vs. Clovis East (CS D-IAA, 58.3)

South: Lincoln (SDS Open, 60.5) vs. Murrieta Valley (SS D-2, 58.1)

D-1A

North: Pittsburg (NCS D-1, 52.2) vs. St. Ignatius (CCS Open, 42.4)

South: Simi Valley (SS D-3, 46.1) vs. San Marcos (SDS D-I, 39.3)

D-2AA

North: St. Francis (CCS D-I, 43.1) vs. Rocklin (SJS D-2, 42.2)

South: St. Bonaventure (SS D-4, 39) vs. Bakersfield Christian (CS D-II, 29.9)

D-2A

North: Twelve Bridges (SJS D-4, 36.7) vs. Wilcox (CCS D-II, 29.0)

South: Bakersfield (CS D-IA, 29.4) vs. Huntington Beach (SS D-5, 29.8)

D-3AA

North: Bradshaw Christian (SJS D-6, 29.2) vs. Oakdale (SJS D-3, 27.1)

South: Narbonne (LACS Open, 25.1) vs. Muir (SS D-6, 23.3)

D-3A

North: Liberty (NCS D-2, 23.1) vs. Hughson (SJS D-5, 22.5)

South: University City (SDS D-II, 19.1) vs. Porterville (CS D-II, 14.0)

D-4AA

North: Pleasant Valley (NS D-2, 21.7) vs. Carmel (CCS D-III, 16.3)

South: West Torrance (SS D-7, 13.3) vs. Shafter (CS D-IV, 13.3)

D-4A

North: Acalanes (NCS D-3, 16.1) vs. McClymonds (OS, 14.7)

South: Highland (SS D-9, 11.4) vs. Beckman (SS D-8, 9.0)

D-5AA

North: St. Vincent de Paul (NCS D-5, 15.4) vs. Lassen (NS D-3, 10.0)

South: St. Anthony (SS D-10, 4.9) vs. Central (SDS D-III, 4.1)

D-5A

North: Ukiah (NCS D-4, 9.0) vs. Winters (NS D-4, 7.0)

South: Bishop Union (CS D-V, -1.5) vs. Los Amigos (SS D-11, -2.8)

D-6AA

North: Arcata (NCS D-6, 5.6) vs. Summerville (SJS D-7, 5.3)

South: Ramona (SDS D-IV, -4.9) vs. Mary Star of the Sea (SS D-12, -6.3)

D-6A

North: Moreau Catholic (NCS D-7, 1.3) vs. Piedmont Hills (CCS D-IV, 0.0)

South: Eagle Rock (LACS D-I, -7.9) vs. Gahr (SS D-13, -16.3)

D-7AA

North: Lincoln (SFS, -8.7) vs. South San Francisco (CCS D-IV, -10.7)

South: Vista (SDS D-V, -20.5) vs. Arleta (LACS D-II, -23.0)

D-7A

North: Minarets (CS D-VI, -16.9) vs. Biggs (NS, -22.1)

South: Nordhoff (SS D-14, -35.4) vs. Taft (LACS D-III, -35.9)
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Diaz-Infante (Bellarmine)

kiddman32
True, might have been very different for DLS if JP2 HS had opened. But ya never know, maybe things would have remained the same, or close to it.

At least the numbers would have been different... Right now, the DLS campus is bursting at the seams. Original plan was for 500 boys and they have over twice that. Even with the fact they've managed to squeeze more buildings into that campus, my guess is classes are very full, though I've never toured the campus during classes (obviously, I'm not some sort of creep and I'm wayyyyyyyyy too old to try and be a student) :)
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Caitlin Clark vs Juju who do you Draft and Why

A
northbaybbguru said:
Ill take CC as she has already proven her rookie year that she can cut it in the WNBA. 1st team All WNBA is pretty darn good not to mention the assist records and such. She's a force that will only get better.

Look i know Juju is good but she's just in college and there is no guarantee she will succeed at the WNBA level. There have been plenty of All Americans that for whatever reason just didn't work in the pros.

Give me the proven commodity rather than the potential.
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I was more mentioning the score. I have no idea about wnba and their abilities
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WCAL: A Final Glance

iamgearyblvd
colhenrylives said:
A note in wake of WCAL season: Install the SHC QB at SI, SF, VC or Serra and we might be having an entirely different discussion. That kid appears to be the real deal.
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Sargent statistically has had a magical season for SH. However Ray-John Spears who led the state title team was a better all-around QB in my opinion. But not by that much. I did not expect Sargent to do much running in the RPO this season, but surprisingly he has put up some good running numbers to go along with his passing.

He broke the school passing yards record despite missing Flannigan and Jenkins for a few games. Zion Secrese, Tion Williams and Jared Camara all have stepped up. All hopefully are back next year except Flannigan (graduation).

Irish just need to add more OL/DL depth. Appears Coach Evans can get skilled guys to come and play for him. He just needs more bruisers to come as well.
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Bellarmine in dire straits

THEOC89
123ag3 said:
Well if you know anything about CCS playoffs, then you would know that in the 22-23 school year, there were no CCS open divisions in those 4 sports. So DI is the highest they could be in basketball and soccer, and DII is the second highest for baseball and football. 1 point away from a state championship, at any division, is pretty relevant.
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All I know is The Bells are known for Winning the WCAL and the Top Level of CCS and beating Folsom to play in a Top level SBG, That is Relevant….

Scraping in the playoffs as a 4 win team, beating a bunch of lower level teams and then playing the 50th or something ranked team is So Cal is no kind of State Championship and irrelevant…..

Baseball and Basketball, you have a point…. But FB is so watered down and everyone makes the playoffs so WCAL league titles are what make you Relevant….
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PCAL Week 11

T
NorCalSportsFan said:
Carmel wouldn't beat Soquel or Salinas and would have a tough game against Palma. Carmel defense is weak and could have a tough game against even Hollister. They will have a tough playoff in D3 but should be favored.
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I think Soquel would easily take down Carmel. I would take Carmel over Salinas. It would be a competitive game, but I give the coaching edge to Carmel. This isn't knocking Zenk because I think he is a tremendous coach. I do think Carmel would put together a better game plan to beat Salinas just like they have in the past. You've got your homer glasses on about Palma. Carmel beats them no problem. Common opponent Monterey. Palma couldn't beat Monterey with a back up QB playing. Palma is young and one dimensional. We will never know so it's all opinions. Thanks PCAL.
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WCAL: A Final Glance

C
SFcityfan said:
All due respect to SI’s success, it is SI that should be thanking #TheR. Otherwise SI would not be sharing the WCAL crown and still playing “not like us” after there turn around 2nd half vs. #WeR. It is in bad taste to dog out your own DB’s & calling them week🤫🧐😡 But that is the SI way?

IMHO, there are two great tales of the tape in WCAL season final review of league play. Another poster made a very intuitive post that all the open/d1 team have basically (WCAL) beat each other.

So SI needs to appreciate their phenomena's great start, SF needs to stay strong and finish up to be Open Bracket representation of WCAL in State Title Game. #TheR needs to kept a mindful focus of ONE GAME at a time and “do what they can do”. Marching through 1st & 2nd round will not be an easy task. And Serra truly needs to leave it on the field in Coach W milestone win season.

Another point in this season is SHC improving their record by 200%, and planting a flag “that they might NOT be dropping out of league”. To me this is the most significant statement of the WCAL, to be able to accomplish with So little and attempting to give options in The City.

Based on the play off lay out, #TheR has the most to win, SI has the most to lose and Serra can have the most to use Will over Skill to maintain supremacy in the WCAL neighborhoods

I am betting on momentum
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A note in wake of WCAL season: Install the SHC QB at SI, SF, VC or Serra and we might be having an entirely different discussion. That kid appears to be the real deal.
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Caitlin Clark vs Juju who do you Draft and Why

N
Ill take CC as she has already proven her rookie year that she can cut it in the WNBA. 1st team All WNBA is pretty darn good not to mention the assist records and such. She's a force that will only get better.

Look i know Juju is good but she's just in college and there is no guarantee she will succeed at the WNBA level. There have been plenty of All Americans that for whatever reason just didn't work in the pros.

Give me the proven commodity rather than the potential.
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WCAL: A Final Glance

iamgearyblvd
Niklas227 said:
Actually, Riordan, Serra, and St. Francis has the most to lose.

SI wasn’t even supposed to be here according to the WCAL pre-season analysis. SI was supposed to be battling it out for 4th or 5th in the WCAL.

No star offensive seniors going to D1 power conferences except for a LT that can’t score TD’s.

We’re playing with house money. Nothing to lose and everything to gain.
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You are SI. An elitist institution. Over half your student body comes from wealthy Marin County enclaves or come from Private SF middle schools that charge $35,000 a year in tuition, and drive Landrovers/Rangerovers. Spare me the oh nobody believed in us, nothing to lose mentality. SI knows they are the best. Go out and win Open or 🤫
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PCAL Week 11

N
thehookup55 said:
I've seen them play a few times this year. Soquel is very well coached. Head coach is former NFL safety Dwight Lowery.

Offense- Junior QB Sam Whelan is the real deal. Athletic and reads the field well. He can make all the throws. He has a great feel for the pocket and will extend plays. No big time weapons at the skill positions. They are all very serviceable. RB #0 is on the smaller side but he runs hard. He can rip off some chunk plays. OL isn't anything special in terms of size, but they can grind you out. They run a conservative offense and like to take their shots down field at the right time. Passing game is a lot of roll outs and flood route concepts. Whelan will throw across his body into traffic.

Defense- They are tough on defense. Their corners play extremely aggressive. They disguise well. They aren't afraid to leave them on an island in coverage. #13 and #9 are dogs. They will get in your WRs face and be physical. The DL is quick and athletic. Not a lot of size. LBs attack downhill. #6 is a good DE with good size. They contain well. Very disciplined. They don't look like anything special. Lowery has them prepared though.

STs- This is their weak spot. They don't have much of a kicker from what I have seen. Punter is one of the CBs. Salinas blocked a punt and got really close to blocking another.

Plain and simple don't judge them on how they look. They are legit. Should be a good game.
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I like Soquel but they have a nightmare matchup against Riordan. If Riordan plays their A game they are going to have a tough night especially stopping them and their speed and Riordan defense is very physical although Soquel QB is a plus. He will have to throw the ball. I'm surprised Soquel is favored. Riordan can be a slow starter and maybe Soquel can get an early lead.
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PCAL Week 11

N
RLS13 said:
Agreed. It was obvious from the end of last year Carmel should have been in Gabilan this year and Alvarez in the Mission. I understand Carmel is a smaller public school, but this years senior class is very special and it was evident last year. They probably finish 2nd or third in the Gabilan this year.
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Carmel wouldn't beat Soquel or Salinas and would have a tough game against Palma. Carmel defense is weak and could have a tough game against even Hollister. They will have a tough playoff in D3 but should be favored.
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WCAL: A Final Glance

N
SFcityfan said:
All due respect to SI’s success, it is SI that should be thanking #TheR. Otherwise SI would not be sharing the WCAL crown and still playing “not like us” after there turn around 2nd half vs. #WeR. It is in bad taste to dog out your own DB’s & calling them week🤫🧐😡 But that is the SI way?

IMHO, there are two great tales of the tape in WCAL season final review of league play. Another poster made a very intuitive post that all the open/d1 team have basically (WCAL) beat each other.

So SI needs to appreciate their phenomena's great start, SF needs to stay strong and finish up to be Open Bracket representation of WCAL in State Title Game. #TheR needs to kept a mindful focus of ONE GAME at a time and “do what they can do”. Marching through 1st & 2nd round will not be an easy task. And Serra truly needs to leave it on the field in Coach W milestone win season.

Another point in this season is SHC improving their record by 200%, and planting a flag “that they might NOT be dropping out of league”. To me this is the most significant statement of the WCAL, to be able to accomplish with So little and attempting to give options in The City.

Based on the play off lay out, #TheR has the most to win, SI has the most to lose and Serra can have the most to use Will over Skill to maintain supremacy in the WCAL neighborhoods

I am betting on momentum
Click to expand...
Actually, Riordan, Serra, and St. Francis has the most to lose.

SI wasn’t even supposed to be here according to the WCAL pre-season analysis. SI was supposed to be battling it out for 4th or 5th in the WCAL.

No star offensive seniors going to D1 power conferences except for a LT that can’t score TD’s.

We’re playing with house money. Nothing to lose and everything to gain.
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