CoachRandal said:

“Competitive Equity” is generally a lose lose for small enrollment schools. Enrollment still is a factor and correlated to computer rankings. With the exception of city schools a bigger enrollment provides a bigger pool of athletes. Small schools are either pulled up to play bigger schools or bigger schools are sent down. Thus a lose, lose. Also CE punishes success and rewards mediocrity. That being said small good schools should want to move up to challenge themselves but the system to move should be voluntary. What we are seeing now with CE is the Strong are getting stronger and the Weak are getting weaker. CN and MC will be driven by CE to get better and will probably accomplish it by attracting more players from weak public schools who will get worse. I like enrollment based divisions with a voluntary open to give the top teams the chance to compete to be #1. Right now the playoffs seem meaningless once you get below Open/D1 and perhaps D2. Attendance and interest in HS sports playoffs seems to be declining with this new system. League play is more interesting with its traditional league rivalries.

Click to expand...

RLS13 said:

PCAL Week 9

Before we get too far into this week’s preview wanted to share a great story about the King City head coach, and what he has done over the past year to support his family and his community. A great story about a really great man. Sometimes Highschool football is not about the wins and losses on the field.

https://www.montereyherald.com/2024/10/20/high-school-football-a-different-kind-of-comeback-story/

Last week 9-3 Overall 97-29

Gabilan- Some interesting story lines are starting to develop in the Gabilan. It appears Soquel and Salinas are destined for a title matchup on 11/1. Monterey seems to have secured at least third place, while Hollister, Aptos and Palma battle for 4th through 6th. PAL Booster says Palma is basically in the playoffs, but he has them at 5-5, I think they finish 4-6. Will that be enough for the final at-large bid? Maybe? Or does the steak end this year. Hopefully the PCAL will let Alvarez go down to a “B” division for a year or 2 in order to build some consistency.

Thu 10/24 Aptos (CA) at Alvarez (Salinas, CA), 7:00pm – Maybe Alvarez last best shot to win a league game. Also seems odd that Alvarez has to ply 3 Thursdays in a row, while Palma and Monterey don’t have any Thursday night games. Aptos needs to win to stay in the playoffs. Aptos 38-7

Fri 10/25 Soquel (CA) at Monterey (CA), 7:30pm- Potential trap here for Soquel. Monterey has some huge playmakers and they have been running the ball well lately. Soquel will do what they always do: dictate the pace of the game, control the line of scrimmage, and clamp down on defenses. Soquel 28-14

Fri 10/25 Arroyo Grande (CA) at Salinas (CA), 7:30pm- 2 schools of thought here: Great to keep the team rolling with a late out of section game against an historically strong program. Or what the hell are you thinking, take the bye get healthy and get ready for the biggest game of the year. If they beat Soquel in 2 weeks genius, if they lose worst scheduling decision ever. Salinas 28-24

Fri 10/25 Palma (Salinas, CA) vs Hollister (CA) at Salinas Sports Complex (Salinas, CA), 7:30pm- I view this (or next week vs Monterey) as an absolute must win for Palma to ensure a post season invite. Problem is, Hollister might be the better team this year. Hollister 27-21

Mission North (Watsonville Bye) -After a couple weeks of chaos, maybe some clarity in the Mission North. NMC will be favored over the next 3 weeks and should win the division. Alisal had a big win last week and will also be favored over the next 3 weeks to finish second. But don’t be surprised if either one of these teams’ falters and allows St Francis, MVC or Scott’s Valley to sneak into the playoffs.

Thu 10/24 Scotts Valley (CA) vs St. Francis (Watsonville, CA) at Cabrillo College (Aptos, CA), 7:30pm- Winner still can have an outside chance of playoffs, loser of this game is probably out. St Francis has been more consistent, but Scott’s Vally has played the tougher schedule. St. Francis 21-18

Fri 10/25 North Monterey County (Castroville, CA) at Monte Vista Christian (Watsonville, CA), 7:30pm- MVC QB and WR1 have some staggering numbers. Like leaders in the CCS and state. Congratulations to them. But NMC is 3-0 in division and probably going to the playoff’s. NMC 27-17

Fri 10/25 Alisal (Salinas, CA) at Seaside (CA), 7:30pm- Alisal had a goal line stand to win last week, probably wont be as close this week. Alisal 27-7

Mission South (PG Bye) – North Salinas took care of Business vs KC last week to set up a battle for first this week vs Carmel. Carmel did allow Ranch to score a season high 14 points last week, but it was in the 2nd half after they took a 41-0 lead into halftime. We will see if NS can really give them a battle. PG, lost for the 2nd time in a row vs Soledad. This sets up Soledad to challenge NS for a playoff spot in 2 weeks.

Fri 10/25 King City (CA) at Rancho San Juan (Salinas, CA), 7:30pm -Rancho may have found something to build on by scoring some touchdowns last week, meanwhile KC will look to get off the mat after being beat up by North Salinas. King City 24-7

Fri 10/25 Greenfield (CA) at Soledad (CA), 7:30pm- I can already smell the Swiss sausage. Leno’s vs Richina (if you know you know). As far as football: Soledad needs to win if it want to try an overtake NS for 2nd place. Soledad 28-24

Sat 10/26 North Salinas (Salinas, CA) at Carmel (CA), 2:00pm -Carmel can not let NS successfully control the clock. NS has 2 offenses one of them being a Wing T formation to try and control the line of scrimmage. The QB is still hurt so they will be trying to run a lot. It may work, But Carmel’s Starting defense is pretty good. Carmel will be able to score. Carmel 42-21

Santa Lucia (RLS BYE) -I understand why RLS starts late because of the boarding school deal, but schedule a game during the bye week for 10 total games. Mission is SF has an open date. Anyway after RLS took care of PV and SLV pulled away from Gonzales late, this should set up a battle for the title next week. @Streakone, RLS needs to go back on the pick’em next week!!! Also of note last week, is Santa Cruz got a win for the first time in 2 years!!

Sat 10/26 Gonzales (CA) at Pajaro Valley (Watsonville, CA), 12:30pm- This game will probably decide third place. Both teams will be looking to get momentum for next year. Gonzales 23-18

Sat 10/26 Santa Cruz (CA) at San Lorenzo Valley (Felton, CA), 2:00pm -Santa Cruz hada great win last week, but unless SLV is looking to far ahead to next weeks showdown with RLS, the wininig streak will stop at 1. SLV 35-7

Sat 10/26 Marina (CA) vs Harbor (Santa Cruz, CA) at Seaside (CA), 7:30pm -2 Struggling programs trying to find something to build upon for next year. Neither one really believes in Defense. Marina 45-40

Click to expand...

Streak One said:

Here are the scores for this week. We had a four way tie for first and the year long race is getting closer with two weeks left. Let me know of any scoring issues by noon on Monday

Cardinal Newman beat San Marin 31-3
Bishop O'Dowd beat Moreau Catholic 35-9
Pleasant Valley beat Foothill (Palo Cedro) 42-7
Merced beat Atwater 27-24
Jefferson beat Saratoga 24-0
St. Vincent beat Ukiah 35-24
Linden beat Calaveras 59-7
Chavez beat McNair 26-18
San Mateo beat Half Moon Bay 30-20
St. Ignatius beat Valley Christian 20-13

Streak One 48
FBAddict 48
espot 48
NorCalSportsFan 48
SearsPoints 46
carlmerritt 44
Folsom77 44
WCAL88 43
bulldogmgc 43
bella123 42
dlew66 41
Irish_Cheers 39
RLS13 39
EN_FB_Alum 38
Cal 14 38
M.C. Fan 37
H.E.A.T. 37
Sacchiefs 37
THEOC89 36
Macallan 35
MC415 34
209Tides 34
Relly900 33
norcalguy111 33
thehookup55 31
kiddman32 30
sweetjfromthebay 29

Yearly Top 10:

1. THEOC89 463
2. FBAddict 453
3. NorCalSportsFan 447
4. SearsPoints 436
5. Kiddman32 434
6. Bulldogmgc 433
6. Folsom77 433
8. Irish_Cheers 431
9. 209Tides 430
10. WCAL88 429

Click to expand...

Irish_Cheers said:

This time I had 3 losses but it cost me 16 points.

Click to expand...

Jfoyosoul said:

Thanks for the correct info! I think if you go back to 2010, they were also around 5 I believe…i hope Ryder Lyons stays next year. I know Jake Browning reclassified in 2014, but he still played his Senior Fall season and just started UW that January..maybe that will happen with Lyons..though I beard he plans to do a 1 yr mission with the mormon church so we shall see

Click to expand...

bella123 said:

I’d venture to guess Monica Mertle and the girls hoops program at Newman would strongly disagree. Rewind some years back when they first got pulled up to the open and there was talk of how they didn't belong.. The program today is much stronger now and has competed at that higher level year in and year out. Same with Newman’s baseball program they’ve stepped up and is becoming in Norcal blue blood.

Hell, I remember when Valley Christian was a NCS class A team football team. Then they moved to the CCS. I remember the first year the rumblings of them going to the WCAL and how they were going to get crushed. Same thing with Orange Lutheran football. I remember watching them when they were division 11 SS team. They challenged their program and elevated it. At some point, you need to step out of your comfort zone to get better.

Click to expand...

remc said:

In this instance, not a good idea in the playoffs. Play the best in the non league games, front part of the schedule. That’s how you get better. Getting overmatched in a playoff game doesn’t really improve your team, especially in a Division you wouldn’t normally play in. IMO anyway

Click to expand...

H.E.A.T. said:

still trying to figure out why you never put Delta games in Pickems. Big upsets no one would have picked like 31-14 Pleasant Grove over Elk Grove tonight and Earlier Sheldon 6 PG 3

Click to expand...

remc said:

In this instance, not a good idea in the playoffs. Play the best in the non league games, front part of the schedule. That’s how you get better. Getting overmatched in a playoff game doesn’t really improve your team, especially in a Division you wouldn’t normally play in. IMO anyway

Click to expand...

PALbooster said:

CCS play-off projections with two weeks to go

Here are the CCS Play-off projections with two weeks left in the season. A few changes to the field this week as Leland goes in based on projection to capture second place in the Valley League by upsetting Sobrato. Hillsdale is projected into the field after beating Kings Academy (who is projected out) and Sobrato replaces Sacred Heart Prep as the projected final at-large team.

Open/D1

Barring an upset where one of these teams’ losses to someone other than those in the Open/D1 division, this field looks set although seedings could change as they did this week. SI and Los Gatos flipped seeds, but everything else stayed the same. All eight team’s results were as projected. Three match-ups this week between open teams will impact seedings. Soquel plays Salinas; Riordan plays Serra and St. Francis plays Valley Christian.

8. Riordan 4-6 65 (8) at 1. St. Francis 9-1 81 (2)

7. Salinas 8-2 67.5 (7) at 2. St. Ignatius 8-2 76 (3)

Winners of Round 1 play for open championship – loser of open championship plays winner of round two game below for D1 championship.

6. Valley Christian 5-5 68.5 (6) at 3. Los Gatos 9-1 76 (2)

5. Soquel 8-2 72.5 (5) at 4. Serra 6-4 75 (4)

D2

Seeding changes in this division as Wilcox, Christopher and Menlo-Atherton flipping the 1 through 3 seeds and the rest stayed the same. All the teams in this division also preformed to projections and teams in the bracket stayed the same as last week.

8. Santa Teresa 9-1 50.5* (8) at 1. Wilcox 7-3 60.5 (2)

5. Monterey 6-4 53 (5) at 4. Sacred Heart Cathedral 4-6 56 (4)

6. Menlo School 7-3 52 (6) at 3. Menlo-Atherton 7-3 58.5 (1)

7. Palma 5-5 50.5 (7) at 2. Christopher 9-1 59 (3)

* Elevated to D2 as no B league team can play in D1 or D2

D3

Same eight teams but some movement here as Half Moon Bay continued their downward slide with a loss to San Mateo

8. Burlingame 7-3 42 (4) at 1. Carmel 10-0 59* (1)

5. Palo Alto 5-5 44 (6) at 4. Hollister 5-5 48 (5)

6. Half Moon Bay 8-2 42.5 (3) at 3. Capuchino 9-1 49 (3)

7. Piedmont Hills 8-2 42.5 (8) at 2. Willow Glen 10-0 50.5 (2)

Dropped to D3 as no B league team can play in DI or D2

D4

A couple of changes here as South San Francisco moves up from D5 to D4 and Hillsdale comes back into the field in D4

8. Live Oak 3-7 29** (8) at 1. Aptos 5-5 41 (1)

5. Sobrato 7-3 33 (3) at 4. North Salinas 7-3 35 (6)

6. Hillsdale 5-5 31.5 (NR) at 3. Branham 7-3 38 (2)

7. South San Francisco 8-2 29 (3 in D5) at 2. San Mateo 8-2 39 (4)

Elevated to D4 as no A league team can be in D5 and all C league teams must be in D5.

D5

Leland jumped into the field in D5 and there were also seeding changes.

• 8. Gunderson 7-3 19 (8) at 1. San Lorenzo Valley 10-0 35** (2)
• 5. North Monterey County 7-3 25 (1) at 4. Woodside 7-3 25.5 (7)
• 6. Pioneer 6-4 23.5 (5) at 3. Leland 6-3 25.9 (NR)
• 7..Gunn 10-0 23.5 (6) at 2. Alisal 6-4 27.5 (4)

**Dropped from D4 to D5 as all C league teams must be in D5.

WCAL

All went according to projections with Saint Ignatius beating Valley Christian 20-13 in the league’s most competitive game last week. At this point the league’s top 5 teams have clinched paly off berths and Sacred Heart Cathedral can only be displaced in 6th place if it losses its last two games and either Bellarmine or Mitty win their final two games.

PAL-Bay

Everything has gone as projected in this league to date. The league’s only two undefeated teams square off this week as Wilcox travels to Los Gatos. Five of this league’s six teams get automatic spots. Sacred Heart Prep is currently on the wrong side of the at-large bubble projections and will likely need a win over Menlo-Atherton or Menlo School to have a chance to make the play-offs.

Gabilan

Soquel travels to Salinas this week in the game that will determine the league championship. The league’s 3rd-6th place teams (Monterey, Palma, Hollister and Aptos) continue to jockey for position, but absent an upset win by last place Alvarez over Hollister or Palma all four of those teams figure to make the play-off field.

Mount Hamilton

Another conference that has gone as projected. Leigh will have to pull of an upset over Christopher or Branham to have a chance at one of the four automatic berths currently projected to go to Christopher, Santa Teresa, Branham and Live Oak.

PAL-Deanza

Nothing is quite yet settled in this league with four teams jockeying for three spots. Current projections are for Capuchino, Burlingame and Hillsdale to make the play-offs with Kings Academy being the odd man out. But head-to-head match-ups between relatively closely ranked teams in Burlingame at Capuchino and Capuchino at King’s Academy will be determinative.

PAL Ocean

Half Moon Bay lost for the second week in a row to San Mateo 30-20. This leaves four teams hunting for two spots. San Mateo clinches the league championship with a win at home against Sequoia which after going 1-4 in non-league has been a surprise 3-0 in league to date. Another big match-up this week is Half Moon Bay hosting Carlmont. Regardless of this weeks outcomes the week ten match-up between rivals Carlmont and Sequoia will help determine the top two spots.

Mission South

Carmel cemented their spot as league champion with a win over second place North Salinas. The winner of this league’s match-up between North Salinas and Soledad will determine the second play-off spot.

Mission North

This is the only league where every team has lost a league game and every team has won a league game. This Saturday two of the league’s one loss teams North Monterey County plays at St. Francis of Watsonville. Alisal is the other one loss team and is projected to make the field as well as the winner of the above mentioned game.

Valley

Willow Glen is favored to win the league and finish the regular season 10-0. Leland beat Sobrato this week and can clinch a play-off berth with a win against Gilroy. Sobrato must beat Prospect and Gilroy in its final two games to try to hold onto the sections final at-large berth.

Foothill

Piedmont Hills is the heavy favorite to win this league. The winner of this week’s game where Overfelt travels to Pioneer is likely to get the second play-off spot.

El Camino

South San Francisco has clinched a play-off spot and is sole league champion with either a win at home over Homestead or a Woodside loss at Fremont. Woodside clinches the second league spot with a win over Fremont.

Santa Lucia

The league title will likely be decided by the winner of this week’s game between the league’s remaining two undefeated teams when Stevenson will travel to favorite San Lorenzo Valley.

Lake

Jefferson’s win over Saratoga means this league championship will get settled in week 10 when Gunn hosts Jefferson.

West Valley

Gunderson has clinched this league’s sole play-off spot and ends up as sole champion with a win in its final game against San Jose or another Evergreen Valley loss.

Click to expand...

bella123 said:

Nah you want to play the best and challenge yourself. It’s how you get better.

Click to expand...

• 8. Gunderson 7-3 19 (8) at 1. San Lorenzo Valley 10-0 35** (2)
• 5. North Monterey County 7-3 25 (1) at 4. Woodside 7-3 25.5 (7)
• 6. Pioneer 6-4 23.5 (5) at 3. Leland 6-3 25.9 (NR)
• 7..Gunn 10-0 23.5 (6) at 2. Alisal 6-4 27.5 (4)

carmelkyd said:

Difficult to define how much your hard is appreciated. I'm curious to know how much of each week's work you have been able to automate? Any idea how many hours you spend on each week's projections. From someone who used to help figure out just where "my" school was going to be slotted in the play-offs I stand amazed at how you are able to do this.

Click to expand...

ankleassassin said:

I don't think many have gone to a movie in 10 years.
Mercy is the son of master P. Richmond/ New Orleans legend.

Click to expand...

iamgearyblvd said:

Their black hoops uniforms are nice. These football ones just looked really cheap and unimaginative. Hummel played must better and he had some nice passes that were quick slants and not just his predictable 10 yard outs. 2nd half was no contest. VC offensively couldnt do anything. As I noted before, VC doesnt have a real QB. Was there no junior or sophomore backup QB from last year who gives them more than what the freshman gives?

Click to expand...

Relly900 said:

Yup this right I look at it wrong

They highest finish on Max preps was number 5 in 2014 nationally they was #2 in the state

Finished 8 nationally in 2017

They finished 7 nationally in 2018


I looked at Max preps perhaps other ranking from other publications was different those years

Click to expand...

NCS707 said:

For a time CVC was getting Pitt/Antioch/Brentwood kids. Clayton Valley going to a charter format was huge.

Now it seems kids flock to DLS or Pitt. The whole Concord area and the Bay Valley league is very down. Just 5-6 years ago too to bottom that league was very good. Antioch, Freedom, even Deer Valley have all had some good runs a decade ago. Now it’s Pitt, better than ever, Liberty is solid but down from their peak, Heritage is ok, Antioch is iffy, Deer Valley and Freedom bad. The demographics of these schools should all yield decent football programs.

Click to expand...

NCS707 said:

For a time CVC was getting Pitt/Antioch/Brentwood kids. Clayton Valley going to a charter format was huge.

Now it seems kids flock to DLS or Pitt. The whole Concord area and the Bay Valley league is very down. Just 5-6 years ago too to bottom that league was very good. Antioch, Freedom, even Deer Valley have all had some good runs a decade ago. Now it’s Pitt, better than ever, Liberty is solid but down from their peak, Heritage is ok, Antioch is iffy, Deer Valley and Freedom bad. The demographics of these schools should all yield decent football programs.

Click to expand...