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NCS Playoff Predictions (4 weeks early)

4 weeks from today, the brackets will all be out. So here's my predictions of who gets in, along with a favorite and dark horse for each division.

D-I

1 - De La Salle
2 - Monte Vista
3 - Pittsburg
4 - Foothill
5 - Antioch
6 - California
7 - Freedom
8 - Amador Valley
9 - Dublin
10 - Logan
11 - San Leandro
12 - Dougherty Valley
13 - Irvington

Call it a hunch, but I think the Pirates beat Antioch, which moves Monte Vista into the 2 seed based on head-to-head. Also, I don't see Liberty, Deer Valley or Heritage getting enough wins to qualify, since they would have to beat at least one of Pittsburg, Antioch or Freedom, though Heritage would qualify with wins over both Liberty and Deer Valley, and I think that would get them a 12 seed if so.

Favorite = De La Salle
Dark Horse = Monte Vista

It's kind of a cheat to call a 2 seed a dark horse, but isn't anybody a dark horse in the same division as DLS?

D-II

1 - Clayton Valley
2 - Miramonte
3 - Pinole Valley
4 - Granada
5 - American
6 - Casa Grande
7 - Concord
8 - Tennyson
9 - Windsor
10 - Carillo
11 - Livermore
12 - Northgate

Beyond 12, Alameda, Hayward, Mt. Eden, Redwood and Washington are all likely to qualify (Washington probably stays home if that happens).

Favorite = Clayton Valley
Dark Horse = Casa Grande - not a great record, but they're as tested as anybody

D-III

1 - Campolindo
2 - Analy
3 - Rancho Cotate
4 - O'Dowd
5 - Petaluma
6 - Acalanes
7 - DeAnza
8 - Kennedy
9 - Novato
10 - Terra Linda
11 - Albany

It looks like there could be more teams with .500 or worse records in the playoffs than not in D-III, but that's all that have any kind of a realistic chance to qualify.

Favorite = Campo
Dark Horse = O'Dowd (only because I have to pick a dark horse - Campo's gonna run away with this)

D-IV (only really competitive one!)

1 - Cardinal Newman
2 - Marin Catholic
3 - Fortuna
4 - Moreau
5 - St. Helena
6 - Piedmont
7 - Justin-Siena
8 - St. Mary's
9 - Hercules
10 - Ft. Bragg
11 - San Marin
12 - Del Norte
13 - Encinal
14 - Lower Lake
15 - Harker
16 - Healdsburg

I don't see Drake qualifying. Some of this has already been discussed, but here goes. I think CN's schedule is tougher than Marin Catholic's, so I gave them the 1 seed. I think Fortuna's going to get a lot of love in the seeding meeting coming in undefeated and playing a decent schedule for a team that far north. I won't be shocked if the St. Helena/Ft. Bragg winner ends up the 4 seed to give them a home game against the next best candidate (Moreau). Moreau gets that nod over Piedmont who gets the nod over Justin-Siena based on head-to-head(-to-head). I know there's a lot of respect for St. Mary's, but their "signature" win over O'Dowd looks pretty mild now that they also just lost to Tennyson. Sets up some fun potential playoff matches. Wouldn't be stunned to see Del Norte go win at St. Helena, and I'm sure Moreau would love a crack at Encinal now that Tenorio's gone after some of those pastings they took in the BSAL.

Favorite = Cardinal Newman
Dark Horse = Fortuna

I'm gonna skip D-V for now - I don't really follow it as much...

Let the debate begin!

DFAL

Big games this week with a lot at stake.

Dublin vs. Las Lomas. Dublin at 5-2 should win this game against a rebuilding Las Lomas. A win will just about gurantee a playoff birth in D1. Dublin already has a bad loss to Alhambra, two bad losses will surely give them a 16 seed in the NCS D1 playofffs and a likely meeting with De La Salle. I don't want to see a 100-0 score so please beat LL.

Alhambra vs. DV. Alhambra is stiil on life support and needs to be able to stop the run to win. A win puts them in the playoffs. DV looks to go 7-2 and hopes to nab a better seed In the D1 NCS playoffs.

Acalanes vs. Miramonte - A must win for Acalanes. Lose and their post season hopes are over. I believe Acalanes will be able to pass on Miramonte and vice versa. This could be a shootout.

Bellarmine coaching staff

Let's be honest. Year in and year out, the Bellarmine coaching staff continues to prepare and execute specific game plans that, by and large, turn out to be highly effective. They did it again on Saturday against a very talented Riordan team. Even without its standout QB, Bellarmine did enough to frustrate and control the previously unbeaten Crusaders. Using five or six DB's in concert with three down linemen and two or three LB's, the Bells did all the fundamental stuff _ solid tackling, hustle, great positioning and anticipation. They forced the Riordan QB to make decisions and he struggled at times. On offense, there wasn't much that was sexy. They stuck to the basics (with an occasional foray with the spread), didn't turn the ball over and kept penalties to a minimum. Their backup QB did his job, managed the game and did just enough to produce two scores. The Bells are not blessed with a glut of big linemen as they have been in the past. They make the most of what they have. It's really their DB's and LB's who made the difference Saturday. Their kicking game was very good as well. All in all, it was one more example of Bellarmine's attention to detail in all aspects of the game. Riordan simply did not have enough answers. So it's kudos to Bellarmine. Again. Some things in the WCAL just don't change.
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NCP Spotlight: Shurod Thompson

By: Michael Benton


Liberty’s Shurod Thompson had the winning touchdown and two point conversion in an 8-7 win over Heritage.


Thompson, a 6-foot-2, 205 pound safety, was limited as he experienced cramps at the end of the first half and did not return until midway through the fourth quarter. After his return, he had a 17 yard run to lead a late drive and capped it off with a four yard touchdown run. He also converted the 2-point conversion with both scores coming on runs to the right out of a full house backfield.


Thompson, a former Cal commit, looks to have the physical tools (size, speed) to be formidable in the back of a defense. On Friday, it was difficult to measure as his teammates in the front seven dominated Heritage and made his game on the backend rather pedestrian to manage. On offense Heritage did a good job of setting the edge and not allowing him to get outside. On his best run of the night he ran left off tackle then used his speed to get to the edge. Thompson was not involved in the passing game as he stayed in to block and was not targeted.


The 4-star prospect can play passive at times. If his motor clicks with the physical tools, Oregon State got a good safety prospect out of the East Bay. Thompson is ranked No. 8 in the NCP Top 50.

Monte Vista Christian's puts early Halloween Scare on Palma!

As reported in the scores thread, Palma came from behind with a halftime deficit of -4 points which extended to -11 points late in the 3rd qtr, yet, somehow, overcame at least a half-dozen holding penalties on mostly big gains, and while having lost its star runner (Martinez) early in the game, but getting a very big running game by its wirey number two back, Torkelus (sp), who consistently put Palma in good scoring position, Palma came back with two scores during the last 1:55 mins. of the 4th qtr with a 25 yd TD pass and then with 0:45 seconds left in the game, a 35 yrd TD run by Torkelson after a Faringello interception to beat Monte Vista Christian 35-25 at Salinas High's "Pit." (I'm assuming Palma uses the Pit when Salinas isn't in order to save money by not playing in its usual house: The Salinas Sports Complex.)

Monte Vista Christian (Watsonville), who had a winning pre-season and all wins during league against mostly lowly ranked teams, which, for me, usually spells early doom when such a team goes up against higher ranked opponents, did a good job adjusting to competition against a higher calibre team by holding Palmas scoreless until the final seconds of the 1st quarter. I sat on the MVC side of the field and, since there is no 8-lane track between the sidelines and the spectators, it was nice to see and feel MVC's energy level and confidence building and their crowd really getting into the game each time the 1st half scoring see-sawed back and forth with 4 lead changes before MVC ended the 1st half on top 18-14. A poster on the scores thread when mentioning this game noted that the Palma QB seemed to be having trouble much of the night. I had my field glasses on the cause of most of the QB's trouble all night, it was this 260 pound mountain of muscle, aka MVC's #72 right tackle, who all too often was either hitting the Palma QB either just before or just after the passed ball left the QB's fingers. Whereas Palmas colors are red and gold, me thinks when the QB took off his shoulder chest and rib pads post game, the colors he was looking at were more like black and blue.

Other than a game going on, tri-tip sandwiches (BBQ'd by Palma's boosters club) being eaten in the stands looked pretty big and good, and, actually, the cheerleaders routine was worth watching, nine pony-tailed girls doing an amazing, and an amazingly fast, array of insync kicks, leaps, fall-downs, get-ups and spinning moves, probably the fasted moving cheer or dance team I've ever seen, I swear if Palma's Torkelson had 40 or more quickly-snapped carries during the game, the Palma cheerleaders had three times as many moves during the halftime show, all memorized and executed perfectly. Scary moment of the evening came with only a few seconds left on the game-ending clock when a MVC back, running down the sidelines at full tilt was hit straight-on by a Palma defender, the Palma player getting the worst of it in a collision that sounded like a car wreck, the kid laid out and apparently unconscious for about 5 minutes. It's really eerie, after sitting though 2-hours of non-stop noise, to be in a hschool football stadium with about 2,000 buzzing people in it, with the place slowing becoming stone cold dead silent and then staying that way until the player was revived as, collectively, everyone in the stands starts breathing again. Fortunately, the Palma kid walked of the field arm and arm with two of his teamates, but yeh, amidst all the fun and thrill, moments like that are sickening, especially when you think that had it been otherwise, a young high school boy could have been seriously injured or permanently incapacitated. Such a great game, but also with such great risk. Muds

Will the MEL Champion be decided in week 2

Will the MEL be decided as early as week 2? Napa and Wood face off this week possibly for the MEL League Title. Who will win and why?
Will there be any contenders after this game? Vacaville looks to be struggling but still has time to pull it together can it be done?
Vintage Got routed by Wood, Armijo and Rodriguez are playing horrible. Will there be any surprises to come?
I believe Wood will win out, Napa will put up a great fight for the first half then get overrun with speed and scoring.
Vacaville just hasn't got their machine firing on all cylinders and would have to beat two really good teams in Wood and Napa.

Is Antioch High really that good?

There are a lot of questions out there if Antioch is challenging themselves during their non-league games. They have been blowing everybody out and put a hurting on Heritage but now comes the real challenges. Will Freedom come with the same intensity as they did last week to snap Antioch's 6-0 record? Will it hurt Antioch not being battle tested yet this year? Our are they just that good... Find out tonight right here on our live stream! Login to view embedded media

Placer vs Bear River

The states #3(Placer)and #5(Bear River)ranked D4 teams go at each other this next Friday nite @ BR in Lake of the Pines,this should be a doozy with both teams sporting identical 7-0 records 2-0 in the PVL(Pioneer Valley League) this game should be in this weeks pick-em as the GAME of the WEEK!What do all you guru's think? Go Placer

Division placement and school enrollment.

I believe the Sac Joaquin Section has got it right. Double the enrollment of all private schools and then put them in the Division where they should belong and that includes Coed private schools like St Mary's of Stockton, which it does. It would be no different than having two schools side by side with different genders, they would double the enrollments and move them up into a higher division. Granted they do get students that are academically inclined but they do also get very good athletes and are not restricted to boundaries like the public schools. So why does the Central Coast Section not include coed private schools to double there enrollments for the placement of divisions. Let's campare apples to apples. Private schools do have the advantage vs public schools.
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