CCS play-off projections after week 9
With two weeks to go (and the SF vs Riordan game still to play in week 9) the play-off picture is getting fairly clear. The open divisions have played out as expected over the past few weeks. The power points will make a difference. In addition to changing the seeding the power points are the likely determinant around which two of the three sectional final losers will move onto regional play.
Current projections show three teams tied for the final two at-large spots between Bellarmine, Leigh, and Burlingame. I would like to find out if the WCAL is still only putting teams forward based on their league standings. If that is the case, then SHC would not be put into the field until Bellarmine is in and if Bellarmine is the last team in then all three teams at 20 points would get in (Burlingame, Leigh, and Bellarmine) and SHC would be out.
Open Division I W/O Bellarmine
8. Palo Alto 3-7 19 VS 1. Milpitas 10-0 31.5
5. Wilcox 7-3 24.5 vs 4. San Benito 7-3 25
6. Menlo-Atherton 6-4 22.5 vs 3. Piedmont Hills 8-2 26
7. Los Gatos 5-5 22 vs 2. Salinas 8-2 30.5
Open Division I with Bellarmine
8. Palo Alto 3-7 19 VS 1. Milpitas 10-0 31.5
5. Menlo-Atherton 6-4 22.5 vs 4. San Benito 7-3 25
6. Los Gatos 5-5 22 vs 3. Piedmont Hills 8-2 26
7. Bellarmine 5-5 20 vs 2. Salinas 8-2 30.5
Division II W/O Bellarmine
8. Leigh 5-5 20 vs 1. Serra 8-2 30
5. St. Francis 7-3 26 vs 4. Oak Grove 6-4 26.5
6. Westmont 7-3 23 or Mitty 6-4 23 vs 3. Valley Christian 8-2 26.5
7. Westmont 7-3 23 or Mitty 6-4 23 vs 2. Aragon 9-1 27.5
Division II W/O Leigh
8. Westmont 7-3 23 or Mitty 6-4 23 vs 1. Serra 8-2 30
5. St. Francis 7-3 26 vs 4. Oak Grove 6-4 26.5
6. Wilcox 7-3 24.5 vs 3. Valley Christian 8-2 26.5
7. Westmont 7-3 23 or Mitty 6-4 23 vs 2. Aragon 9-1 27.5
Division II W/O Burlingame
8. Leigh 5-5 20 vs 1. Serra 8-2 30
5. St. Francis 7-3 26 vs 4. Oak Grove 6-4 26.5
6. Wilcox 7-3 24.5 vs 3. Valley Christian 8-2 26.5
7. Mitty 6-4 23 vs 2. Aragon 9-1 27.5
Division III W/O Burlingame
8. Palma 5-5- 20.5 vs 1. Half Moon Bay 10-0 29.5
5. Seaside 6-4 22 vs 4. Live Oak 6-4 22.5
6. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 21 vs 3. Westmont 7-3 23
7. Terra Nova 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Aptos 7-3 25
Division III W/Burlingame
8. Burlingame 6-4 20 vs 1. Half Moon Bay 10-0 29.5
5. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 21 vs 4. Seaside 6-4 22
6. Terra Nova 5-5 20.5 vs 3. Live Oak 6-4 22.5
7. Palma 5-5- 20.5 vs 2. Aptos 7-3 25
DeAnza
Milpitas and Wilcox have clinched their play-off spots and Milpitas will be sole league champion with a win over Homestead. Los Gatos, Homestead and Palo Alto are currently tied for third with two games left, but Homestead will be a decided underdog against Los Gatos and Milpitas. Los Gatos plays winless Saratoga and Homestead, While Palo Alto closes out against Los Altos who is winless in league and Wilcox. Los Gatos and Palo Alto figure to get the final two spots.
Gabilan
Salinas, Aptos, San Benito and Palma have clinched the four at-large spots. Salinas plays Aptos for the league championship this week while Palma squares of with San Benito for third place. Seaside plays Monte Vista Christian. Seaside sits with 20 points while MVC has 18. A Seaside win will give them an at-large berth. A MVC win will put both teams on the bubble at 20 with MVC having a tiebreaker over Seaside. A Seaside win gives them an at large spot with 22 points.
Mount Hamilton
This league is far from decided. Currently Oak Grove is alone in first place at 4-1 and is favored in its last two games against Westmont and Leigh. Piedmont Hills (Santa Teresa and Pioneer) Westmont (Oak Grove and Santa Teresa) and Live Oak (Pioneer and Lincoln) are currently tied for 2nd at 3-2 and favored to get the final 3 AQ spots. Currently Pioneer and Santa Teresa are 2-3 in league and need to win their last two games as underdog to make the field. Leigh will be on the bubble if they split their final two games against Lincoln and Oak Grove)
PAL Bay
Half Moon Bay is the last undefeated team in the league with games remaining against Sacred Heart Prep and Terra Nova. HMB, Menlo-Atherton, and Aragon have clinched three of the leagues four automatic spots. The last spot will come down to Sacred Heart Prep (1-3), Burlingame (1-3), and Terra Nova (0-3). It is likely that the winner of the Burlingame and Terra Nova game in week 11 will get the final AQ spot. Burlingame and Terra Nova need to get one more win to have a chance at a wild card spot.
WCAL
Serra is the only team with mathematical certainty of having clinched a spot, but it is highly likely that St. Francis and Valley Christian will have automatic spots. The remaining St. Francis vs Serra game will determine if Serra is the sole champion or ends up as co-champion or Tri-Champion. Currently Bellmarine (St. Francis and SI left) and Mitty (Valley Christian and SHC left )are tied for 4th at 2-3 with two games left and Mitty holding the tiebreaker over Bellarmine. Bellarmine and SHC (Riordan and Mitty) need to get at least one win in their final two games to have a chance at an at-large spot. If either team gets two wins they will be assured an at-large spot. Riordan would have to win their 3 remaining games (SF, VC and SHC) to make the play-offs.
Division IV
8. Alisal 6-4 20 vs 1. Leland 9-1 25.5
4/5 Carlmont 9-1 21.5 vs 4/5 Branham 7-3 21.5.
6. Santa Clara 7-3 20.5 vs 3.Willow Glen 8-2 22.5
7. Cupertino 7-3 20.5 vs 2. Christopher 8-2 23
Division V
8. Sobrato 8-2 19.5 vs 1. Gilroy 10-0 26.5
5. St. Francis 9-1 21.5 vs 4. Hillsdale 8-2 22
6. Soledad 7-3 20.5 vs 3. Scotts Valley 7-3 23
7. Jefferson 8-1 19.93 vs 2. Menlo 8-2 25.5
El Camino
Cupertino clinches a play-off berth with a win next week over Monta Vista. If Santa Clara beats Cupertino in week 10 they will likely be co-champions. If Cupertino beats Santa Clara it will drop Santa Clara into a likely second place tie with Mountain View and Fremont. In this case Fremont would likely win the tiebreaker with 18.5 points vs Santa Clara 18 and Mountain View 16.5
Mission Trail
With one week of play left in this league it looks like Soledad and Scotts Valley will end as co-champions unless there is a massive upset in week 10. In week 10 Scotts Valley ends with San Lorenzo Valley and Soledad ends with Stevenson. Carmel will need a lot of help to make the play-offs and is likely going to come up short for an at-large berth. If they win their shoe game against Pacific Grove the most they can end up is 19.5 points. Carmel will need Scotts Valley, Soledad or Carlmont to lose to have a chance.
Coastal
The winner of the St. Francis and Santa Cruz game will take the leagues only play off spot. St. Francis will be a big favorite.
Monterey Bay Pacific
Gilroy will be heavily favored in their final two games against North Monterey County and Watsonville still on their schedule and clinch a play off spot with one win. Alisal finished their season and can do no worst than second and is in the play-offs. If Christopher beats Monterey in their final game they will be the top at-large team with 23 points. Christopher might also get in as an at-large even with a loss.
PAL Lake
Jefferson has clinched the leagues sole play-off berth. Their final point total and seeding will be predicated on how Mission of SF ends their league season and if Jefferson beats Kings Academy this week. Carlmont still is in good shape for an at-large berth but they must win out and beat Sequoia and Mills to end the season 9-1. San Mateo is projected to end the season at 19 points and will need a win against Burlingame to bump that to 21 points and have a better chance at an at-large berth.
PAL Ocean
Menlo clinched a play-off berth with their win over previously undefeated Hillsdale. Hillsdale gets the second spot if they beat Kings Academy in week 10. Kings Academy would need to upset Hillsdale in week 10 and have South San Francisco lose to winless Woodside.
Santa Teresa
With two weeks left there is a four way tie for first among Leland, Willow Glen, Independence and Branham all have 4-1 league records. Willow Glen plays Independence this week and in week 11 Branham plays Leland. The winner of these two games will likely be league co-champions. Leland, Branham and Willow Glen all have a good chance to make it as an at-large if they lose out on a share of the league title.
West Valley
Sobrato only has to win one of its final two games against Mt. Pleasant or Evergreen Valley to gain the leagues only play-off berth.
Projected at-large berths
1. Christopher 8-2 23 points
2. Carlmont 9-1 21.5 points
3. Branham 7-3 21.5 points
4. Carmel 6-4 19.5 points
5. San Mateo 7-3 19 points
With two weeks to go (and the SF vs Riordan game still to play in week 9) the play-off picture is getting fairly clear. The open divisions have played out as expected over the past few weeks. The power points will make a difference. In addition to changing the seeding the power points are the likely determinant around which two of the three sectional final losers will move onto regional play.
Current projections show three teams tied for the final two at-large spots between Bellarmine, Leigh, and Burlingame. I would like to find out if the WCAL is still only putting teams forward based on their league standings. If that is the case, then SHC would not be put into the field until Bellarmine is in and if Bellarmine is the last team in then all three teams at 20 points would get in (Burlingame, Leigh, and Bellarmine) and SHC would be out.
Open Division I W/O Bellarmine
8. Palo Alto 3-7 19 VS 1. Milpitas 10-0 31.5
5. Wilcox 7-3 24.5 vs 4. San Benito 7-3 25
6. Menlo-Atherton 6-4 22.5 vs 3. Piedmont Hills 8-2 26
7. Los Gatos 5-5 22 vs 2. Salinas 8-2 30.5
Open Division I with Bellarmine
8. Palo Alto 3-7 19 VS 1. Milpitas 10-0 31.5
5. Menlo-Atherton 6-4 22.5 vs 4. San Benito 7-3 25
6. Los Gatos 5-5 22 vs 3. Piedmont Hills 8-2 26
7. Bellarmine 5-5 20 vs 2. Salinas 8-2 30.5
Division II W/O Bellarmine
8. Leigh 5-5 20 vs 1. Serra 8-2 30
5. St. Francis 7-3 26 vs 4. Oak Grove 6-4 26.5
6. Westmont 7-3 23 or Mitty 6-4 23 vs 3. Valley Christian 8-2 26.5
7. Westmont 7-3 23 or Mitty 6-4 23 vs 2. Aragon 9-1 27.5
Division II W/O Leigh
8. Westmont 7-3 23 or Mitty 6-4 23 vs 1. Serra 8-2 30
5. St. Francis 7-3 26 vs 4. Oak Grove 6-4 26.5
6. Wilcox 7-3 24.5 vs 3. Valley Christian 8-2 26.5
7. Westmont 7-3 23 or Mitty 6-4 23 vs 2. Aragon 9-1 27.5
Division II W/O Burlingame
8. Leigh 5-5 20 vs 1. Serra 8-2 30
5. St. Francis 7-3 26 vs 4. Oak Grove 6-4 26.5
6. Wilcox 7-3 24.5 vs 3. Valley Christian 8-2 26.5
7. Mitty 6-4 23 vs 2. Aragon 9-1 27.5
Division III W/O Burlingame
8. Palma 5-5- 20.5 vs 1. Half Moon Bay 10-0 29.5
5. Seaside 6-4 22 vs 4. Live Oak 6-4 22.5
6. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 21 vs 3. Westmont 7-3 23
7. Terra Nova 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Aptos 7-3 25
Division III W/Burlingame
8. Burlingame 6-4 20 vs 1. Half Moon Bay 10-0 29.5
5. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 21 vs 4. Seaside 6-4 22
6. Terra Nova 5-5 20.5 vs 3. Live Oak 6-4 22.5
7. Palma 5-5- 20.5 vs 2. Aptos 7-3 25
DeAnza
Milpitas and Wilcox have clinched their play-off spots and Milpitas will be sole league champion with a win over Homestead. Los Gatos, Homestead and Palo Alto are currently tied for third with two games left, but Homestead will be a decided underdog against Los Gatos and Milpitas. Los Gatos plays winless Saratoga and Homestead, While Palo Alto closes out against Los Altos who is winless in league and Wilcox. Los Gatos and Palo Alto figure to get the final two spots.
Gabilan
Salinas, Aptos, San Benito and Palma have clinched the four at-large spots. Salinas plays Aptos for the league championship this week while Palma squares of with San Benito for third place. Seaside plays Monte Vista Christian. Seaside sits with 20 points while MVC has 18. A Seaside win will give them an at-large berth. A MVC win will put both teams on the bubble at 20 with MVC having a tiebreaker over Seaside. A Seaside win gives them an at large spot with 22 points.
Mount Hamilton
This league is far from decided. Currently Oak Grove is alone in first place at 4-1 and is favored in its last two games against Westmont and Leigh. Piedmont Hills (Santa Teresa and Pioneer) Westmont (Oak Grove and Santa Teresa) and Live Oak (Pioneer and Lincoln) are currently tied for 2nd at 3-2 and favored to get the final 3 AQ spots. Currently Pioneer and Santa Teresa are 2-3 in league and need to win their last two games as underdog to make the field. Leigh will be on the bubble if they split their final two games against Lincoln and Oak Grove)
PAL Bay
Half Moon Bay is the last undefeated team in the league with games remaining against Sacred Heart Prep and Terra Nova. HMB, Menlo-Atherton, and Aragon have clinched three of the leagues four automatic spots. The last spot will come down to Sacred Heart Prep (1-3), Burlingame (1-3), and Terra Nova (0-3). It is likely that the winner of the Burlingame and Terra Nova game in week 11 will get the final AQ spot. Burlingame and Terra Nova need to get one more win to have a chance at a wild card spot.
WCAL
Serra is the only team with mathematical certainty of having clinched a spot, but it is highly likely that St. Francis and Valley Christian will have automatic spots. The remaining St. Francis vs Serra game will determine if Serra is the sole champion or ends up as co-champion or Tri-Champion. Currently Bellmarine (St. Francis and SI left) and Mitty (Valley Christian and SHC left )are tied for 4th at 2-3 with two games left and Mitty holding the tiebreaker over Bellarmine. Bellarmine and SHC (Riordan and Mitty) need to get at least one win in their final two games to have a chance at an at-large spot. If either team gets two wins they will be assured an at-large spot. Riordan would have to win their 3 remaining games (SF, VC and SHC) to make the play-offs.
Division IV
8. Alisal 6-4 20 vs 1. Leland 9-1 25.5
4/5 Carlmont 9-1 21.5 vs 4/5 Branham 7-3 21.5.
6. Santa Clara 7-3 20.5 vs 3.Willow Glen 8-2 22.5
7. Cupertino 7-3 20.5 vs 2. Christopher 8-2 23
Division V
8. Sobrato 8-2 19.5 vs 1. Gilroy 10-0 26.5
5. St. Francis 9-1 21.5 vs 4. Hillsdale 8-2 22
6. Soledad 7-3 20.5 vs 3. Scotts Valley 7-3 23
7. Jefferson 8-1 19.93 vs 2. Menlo 8-2 25.5
El Camino
Cupertino clinches a play-off berth with a win next week over Monta Vista. If Santa Clara beats Cupertino in week 10 they will likely be co-champions. If Cupertino beats Santa Clara it will drop Santa Clara into a likely second place tie with Mountain View and Fremont. In this case Fremont would likely win the tiebreaker with 18.5 points vs Santa Clara 18 and Mountain View 16.5
Mission Trail
With one week of play left in this league it looks like Soledad and Scotts Valley will end as co-champions unless there is a massive upset in week 10. In week 10 Scotts Valley ends with San Lorenzo Valley and Soledad ends with Stevenson. Carmel will need a lot of help to make the play-offs and is likely going to come up short for an at-large berth. If they win their shoe game against Pacific Grove the most they can end up is 19.5 points. Carmel will need Scotts Valley, Soledad or Carlmont to lose to have a chance.
Coastal
The winner of the St. Francis and Santa Cruz game will take the leagues only play off spot. St. Francis will be a big favorite.
Monterey Bay Pacific
Gilroy will be heavily favored in their final two games against North Monterey County and Watsonville still on their schedule and clinch a play off spot with one win. Alisal finished their season and can do no worst than second and is in the play-offs. If Christopher beats Monterey in their final game they will be the top at-large team with 23 points. Christopher might also get in as an at-large even with a loss.
PAL Lake
Jefferson has clinched the leagues sole play-off berth. Their final point total and seeding will be predicated on how Mission of SF ends their league season and if Jefferson beats Kings Academy this week. Carlmont still is in good shape for an at-large berth but they must win out and beat Sequoia and Mills to end the season 9-1. San Mateo is projected to end the season at 19 points and will need a win against Burlingame to bump that to 21 points and have a better chance at an at-large berth.
PAL Ocean
Menlo clinched a play-off berth with their win over previously undefeated Hillsdale. Hillsdale gets the second spot if they beat Kings Academy in week 10. Kings Academy would need to upset Hillsdale in week 10 and have South San Francisco lose to winless Woodside.
Santa Teresa
With two weeks left there is a four way tie for first among Leland, Willow Glen, Independence and Branham all have 4-1 league records. Willow Glen plays Independence this week and in week 11 Branham plays Leland. The winner of these two games will likely be league co-champions. Leland, Branham and Willow Glen all have a good chance to make it as an at-large if they lose out on a share of the league title.
West Valley
Sobrato only has to win one of its final two games against Mt. Pleasant or Evergreen Valley to gain the leagues only play-off berth.
Projected at-large berths
1. Christopher 8-2 23 points
2. Carlmont 9-1 21.5 points
3. Branham 7-3 21.5 points
4. Carmel 6-4 19.5 points
5. San Mateo 7-3 19 points
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