CCS Play-off Projections After Week 10 - Final going into Sunday meeting
- Thread starter PALbooster
- Start date
By points. Right now Palma, Terra Nova and Carmel would have 27.5 points. First tie breaker is head to head but only if all three teams played each other which didn't happen. Second is common opponents. All three team would have had to play common opponents with different results. In a two way tie Palma moves ahead of Terra Nova as Palma beat Menlo-Atherton and Terra Nova lost to MA. However in a three way tiebreaker this wouldn't apply so it would come down to a random draw among the three teams for their seeds.
Thanks PAL. Love having a CCS guru to turn to. So with Palma having the edge over Terra Nova, how would it be then with Carmel in the mix, since the next tie breaker is common opponents with both teams having played and beat Salinas? Carmel won by 13 and Palma by 10.
The CCS made it clear a couple of years ago that the tie-breakers are only applied when all teams are involved (Palma has the breaker over Terra Nova, but Carmel has no connection to the Tigers). It would probably be by coin-toss, although I'd like to see a provision where league champions get the nods in the absence of the regular breakers.
CCS Play-offs after Week 8
19 teams clinched their A league play-off berths this week and 8 teams are mathematically eliminated (or have opted off) leaving 10 teams fighting for the last 5 play-off spots. League titles are still up for grabs in the WCAL, Mt. Hamilton, and Gabilan with key match-ups remaining over the next two weeks. The PAL Bay and Deanza are highly likely to go to Wilcox and Menlo-Atherton as sole champions.
While there were several upsets in the Mount Hamilton league, it was Homestead coming up with their first win of the year over Cupertino that created the only change to the projected field. The winner of the St. Ignatius vs Bellarmine week 10 game where SI will be favored is likely to decide the final at-large spot. This change would also move Wilcox back into DI from DII.
Projections
Division I
8. Piedmont Hills 5-5 21 or Milpitas 6-4 21 vs. 1. Wilcox 10-0 32.33
5. Los Gatos 6-4 22.33 vs 4. Salinas 7-3 25.5
6. San Benito 5-5 22 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28.5
7. Piedmont Hills 5-5 21 or Milpitas 6-4 21 vs 2. Palo Alto 9-1 30
Smallest CBed – Wilcox 1969
Division II
8. Christopher 5-5 20 or Pioneer 5-5 20 vs 1. St. Francis 9-1 31.5
5. Mitty 6-4 21.5 vs 4. Serra 6-4 22
6. Leland 5-5 21 vs 3. Oak Grove 7-3 26.25
7. Christopher 5-5 20 or Pioneer 5-5 20 vs 2. Valley Christian 8-2 28
Smallest CBed – Pioneer 1619
Division III
8. Saint Ignatius 3-7 18 vs 1. Aptos 10-0 31
5. Live Oak 7-3 25 vs 4. Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 26.33
6. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5 vs 3. Terra Nova 9-1 27.5
7. Menlo 5-5 18.33 vs 2. Palma 8-2 27.5
Largest CBed – Aptos 1479
At-Large Projections
1.Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5
2/3. Christopher 5-5 20
2/3. Pioneer 5-5 20
4. St. Ignatius 3-7 17
Other: Cupertino 4-6 16.5; Bellarmine 2-8 16, Aragon 2-8 16
Deanza:
Big upset as Homestead beat Cupertino 23-13 and likely knocked Cupertino out of play-offs. Big Week 9 game is Palo Alto vs Los Gatos and will help determine seedings.
Locks: Wilcox (can do no worse than tie for first); Palo Alto, Lost Gatos. Wilcox is sole league champion with either a win over Cupertino or a Palo Alto lose to Los Gatos or Homestead
Highly Likely Milpitas – in with win over Cupertino or with win over Fremont and Cupertino lose to Wilcox)
Bubble: Cupertino – Into the field with a win over Milpitas or Wilcox. Expected to lose both and currently projected to miss play-offs.
Out: Fremont and Homestead
Mt. Hamilton:
Lots of upsets here as Leland Beat Oak Grove, Lincoln, beat Live Oak. Lincoln is now the leagues only undefeated team but has upcoming games with Oak Grove and Piedmont Hills which are the leagues two one loss teams.
Locks: Oak Grove, Live Oak, Piedmont Hills, Leland
Likely: Pioneer - Needs wins over Santa Teresa and Westmont in last two weeks to secure at-large berth. One win would leave them at 18 points and possibly getting in.
Unlikely Santa Teresa – would need to win last two games over Pioneer and Live Oak and Live Oak to lose last two games to Santa Teresa and Oak Grove.
Out: Westmont, Lincoln (opts out)
Gabilan
Third straight week of all blow out games and many running clocks. League championship on the line over the next two weeks as Aptos faces two toughest teams on their schedule in playing Palma and Salinas. Salinas and Aptos both remain undefeated with San Benito and Palma having one loss.
Locks: Aptos, Palma, Salinas, and San Benito all clinched spots.
Bubble: Christopher can gain at-large berth with wins over Alvarez and Gilroy
Out: Alvarez, Seaside, Gilroy
PAL Bay
Menlo-Atherton clinched at least a tie for the league title with their win over Sacred Heart Prep. Win league outright with a win over Half Moon Bay who is winless in league. Big win for Aragon over Half Moon Bay giving them their first win of the year. Sets up Week 9 game between Menlo and Aragon with the winner likely getting the league’s final automatic berth.
Locks: Menlo-Atherton, Sacred Heart Prep, Terra Nova
Bubble: Menlo – in with win over Aragon or Sacred Heart Prep. Aragon – likely In with win over Menlo.
Unlikely: Half Moon Bay in with wins over Terra Nova and Menlo-Atherton.
WCAL
No surprises here, but Cupertino loss makes it likely that a three win SI (need wins over Riordan and Bellarmine) or three win Bellarmine (needs win over SI) could get final at-large berth in section. Week 9 is unlikely to produce much drama but week 10 game between Serra and St. Francis will determine if St. Francis is sole league champion or if there are tri-champions and Bellarmine vs SI in week 10 could be a play-in game for the section’s final at-large berth.
Locks: St. Francis, Valley Christian, Serra, SHC and Mitty
Highly Likely: Serra, Sacred Heart Cathedral, Mitty.
Out: Riordan
Division IV and V
Big changes this week as Mountain View beat Santa Clara to put the El Camino race in doubt. Scotts Valley was upset by winless Soledad to be removed from the projected field. Big games this week in the Cypress and Ocean leagues as Monterey beat San Lorenzo Valley and Burlingame beat Kings Academy which should make the winners easy favorites to win their leagues. Only changes to the field this week were putting Mountain View in and taking Monta Vista and Scotts Valley who were on the bubble for the final spot are know seen as not making the field.
8. Hill 7-3 17 vs 1. Independence 10-0 28
5. Alisal 6-4 21 vs 4. Carlmont 8-2 21.33
6. Santa Clara 6-4 19.83 vs 3. Overfelt 8-2 23.33
7. Mountain View 6-4 18.83 vs 2. Burlingame 8-2 26
Smallest CBed – Burlingame 1423
Division V
8. Monta Vista Christian 5-5 18 vs 1. Carmel 10-0 27.5
5. Gonzales 10-0 23 vs 4. Del Mar 8-2 23.5
6. Saratoga 6-4 19.83 vs 3. Kings Academy 8-2 24
7. Capuchino 7-3 18.83 vs 2. Monterey 9-1 25
Highest CBed – Saratoga 1354
At-Large Teams
1. Del Mar 8-2 23.5
2. Capuchiino 7-3 18.83
3. Mountain View 6-4 18.83
Bubble: North Monterey County 6-4 18.5, Willow Glen 6-4 18, North Salinas 5-5 17.83, Monta Vista 5-5 17.
El Camino
Mountain View beat the league’s only remaining undefeated team Santa Clara 17-10. The league now has three one loss teams in Mountain View, Santa Clara, Saratoga and none of them play each other the rest of the year and will be favored in their remaining games but Santa Clara and Mountain View ill have to play Monta Vista. A three way tie would leave Santa Clara and Saratoga tied for first and Mountain View third needing to get an at-large berth. Current projections are for Mt. View to end up with 18.83 points and tied with Capuchino (Cap beat Mt. View in the regular season). No one in this league has clinched a play-off spot.
Cypress
Monterey beat San Lorenzo Valley and is the league’s only undefeated team. Monterey wins the leagues only play-off spot with either one win over Santa Cruz and St. Francis in the last two weeks or a King City loss to either North Monterey County or San Lorenzo Valley. Even then Monterey would have an at-large spot and is a lock for the field.
King City could get to 19.5 points with wins over both San Lorenzo Valley and North Monterey County where they will be a slight underdog in both games.
North Monterey County can get to 18.5 points with wins over King City and St. Francis where they will be slight favorites.
Mission
Carmel has locked up a play-off spot and will be the sole league champion with a week 9 win over Alisal. Alisal and Monte Vista Christian hold a two game lead for the last two automatic spots with two games to go. Both are in with just one more win and would even get in under a number of tie breaking scenarios even if they lose their last two games. Alisal has games left with Carmel and Soledad while MVC has North Salinas and Watsonville left on their schedule.
North Salinas can get an At-large berth with wins over MVC and Scotts Valley and would end likely end with 19.83 points.
Watsonville can get to 18.5 points with wins over Soledad and MVC.
Ocean
Burlingame is in a great position to win the league as they beat Kings Academy 31-20 in week 8 and are the league’s only undefeated team. San Mateo still only has one loss in league and still plays Burlingame to end the year in the little big game but can only get in if Kings Academy losses to 0-8 South San Francisco in week 9 and Burlingame losses to Sequoia and San Mateo. Highly likely Burlingame is sole league champion and Kings Academy goes as an at-large.
Santa Teresa
Independence and Overfelt clinched play-off berths with week 8 wins. The two are on track for a week 10 showdown to see if Independence wins the league outright or if they are co-champions. These two teams are the likely automatic qualifiers.
Del Mar is sitting with 19.5 points and is likely an at-large team and is favored to add to their point total with games left with Willow Glen and Silver Creek. Willow Glen is likely in charge of their own destiny and an get an at-large with wins over Del Mar and Leigh. Silver Creek is in a similar position and needs to win out over Branham and Del Mar.
Lake
Carlmont has clinched the league title for the league’s only play-off spot. Capuchino has a real shot at an at-large spot if they win out over Mills and Jefferson where they will be favored. Capuchino will probably not get any league champion points for playing Lincoln as the SF AAA league doesn’t finish until the week after the CCS finishes play.
Santa Lucia
Gonzales needs a week 9 win over one loss Stevenson to clinch the league title and the league’s only play off spot.
West Valley
Hill remains undefeated and Mount Pleasant still only has one loss. Both teams are favored in week 9 and the two teams play each other in week 10 and if Mt. Pleasant wins in week 9 against Lick then the week 10 winner will gain the league’s only play-off berth and be the 8 seed in Division IV.
19 teams clinched their A league play-off berths this week and 8 teams are mathematically eliminated (or have opted off) leaving 10 teams fighting for the last 5 play-off spots. League titles are still up for grabs in the WCAL, Mt. Hamilton, and Gabilan with key match-ups remaining over the next two weeks. The PAL Bay and Deanza are highly likely to go to Wilcox and Menlo-Atherton as sole champions.
While there were several upsets in the Mount Hamilton league, it was Homestead coming up with their first win of the year over Cupertino that created the only change to the projected field. The winner of the St. Ignatius vs Bellarmine week 10 game where SI will be favored is likely to decide the final at-large spot. This change would also move Wilcox back into DI from DII.
Projections
Division I
8. Piedmont Hills 5-5 21 or Milpitas 6-4 21 vs. 1. Wilcox 10-0 32.33
5. Los Gatos 6-4 22.33 vs 4. Salinas 7-3 25.5
6. San Benito 5-5 22 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28.5
7. Piedmont Hills 5-5 21 or Milpitas 6-4 21 vs 2. Palo Alto 9-1 30
Smallest CBed – Wilcox 1969
Division II
8. Christopher 5-5 20 or Pioneer 5-5 20 vs 1. St. Francis 9-1 31.5
5. Mitty 6-4 21.5 vs 4. Serra 6-4 22
6. Leland 5-5 21 vs 3. Oak Grove 7-3 26.25
7. Christopher 5-5 20 or Pioneer 5-5 20 vs 2. Valley Christian 8-2 28
Smallest CBed – Pioneer 1619
Division III
8. Saint Ignatius 3-7 18 vs 1. Aptos 10-0 31
5. Live Oak 7-3 25 vs 4. Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 26.33
6. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5 vs 3. Terra Nova 9-1 27.5
7. Menlo 5-5 18.33 vs 2. Palma 8-2 27.5
Largest CBed – Aptos 1479
At-Large Projections
1.Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5
2/3. Christopher 5-5 20
2/3. Pioneer 5-5 20
4. St. Ignatius 3-7 17
Other: Cupertino 4-6 16.5; Bellarmine 2-8 16, Aragon 2-8 16
Deanza:
Big upset as Homestead beat Cupertino 23-13 and likely knocked Cupertino out of play-offs. Big Week 9 game is Palo Alto vs Los Gatos and will help determine seedings.
Locks: Wilcox (can do no worse than tie for first); Palo Alto, Lost Gatos. Wilcox is sole league champion with either a win over Cupertino or a Palo Alto lose to Los Gatos or Homestead
Highly Likely Milpitas – in with win over Cupertino or with win over Fremont and Cupertino lose to Wilcox)
Bubble: Cupertino – Into the field with a win over Milpitas or Wilcox. Expected to lose both and currently projected to miss play-offs.
Out: Fremont and Homestead
Mt. Hamilton:
Lots of upsets here as Leland Beat Oak Grove, Lincoln, beat Live Oak. Lincoln is now the leagues only undefeated team but has upcoming games with Oak Grove and Piedmont Hills which are the leagues two one loss teams.
Locks: Oak Grove, Live Oak, Piedmont Hills, Leland
Likely: Pioneer - Needs wins over Santa Teresa and Westmont in last two weeks to secure at-large berth. One win would leave them at 18 points and possibly getting in.
Unlikely Santa Teresa – would need to win last two games over Pioneer and Live Oak and Live Oak to lose last two games to Santa Teresa and Oak Grove.
Out: Westmont, Lincoln (opts out)
Gabilan
Third straight week of all blow out games and many running clocks. League championship on the line over the next two weeks as Aptos faces two toughest teams on their schedule in playing Palma and Salinas. Salinas and Aptos both remain undefeated with San Benito and Palma having one loss.
Locks: Aptos, Palma, Salinas, and San Benito all clinched spots.
Bubble: Christopher can gain at-large berth with wins over Alvarez and Gilroy
Out: Alvarez, Seaside, Gilroy
PAL Bay
Menlo-Atherton clinched at least a tie for the league title with their win over Sacred Heart Prep. Win league outright with a win over Half Moon Bay who is winless in league. Big win for Aragon over Half Moon Bay giving them their first win of the year. Sets up Week 9 game between Menlo and Aragon with the winner likely getting the league’s final automatic berth.
Locks: Menlo-Atherton, Sacred Heart Prep, Terra Nova
Bubble: Menlo – in with win over Aragon or Sacred Heart Prep. Aragon – likely In with win over Menlo.
Unlikely: Half Moon Bay in with wins over Terra Nova and Menlo-Atherton.
WCAL
No surprises here, but Cupertino loss makes it likely that a three win SI (need wins over Riordan and Bellarmine) or three win Bellarmine (needs win over SI) could get final at-large berth in section. Week 9 is unlikely to produce much drama but week 10 game between Serra and St. Francis will determine if St. Francis is sole league champion or if there are tri-champions and Bellarmine vs SI in week 10 could be a play-in game for the section’s final at-large berth.
Locks: St. Francis, Valley Christian, Serra, SHC and Mitty
Highly Likely: Serra, Sacred Heart Cathedral, Mitty.
Out: Riordan
Division IV and V
Big changes this week as Mountain View beat Santa Clara to put the El Camino race in doubt. Scotts Valley was upset by winless Soledad to be removed from the projected field. Big games this week in the Cypress and Ocean leagues as Monterey beat San Lorenzo Valley and Burlingame beat Kings Academy which should make the winners easy favorites to win their leagues. Only changes to the field this week were putting Mountain View in and taking Monta Vista and Scotts Valley who were on the bubble for the final spot are know seen as not making the field.
8. Hill 7-3 17 vs 1. Independence 10-0 28
5. Alisal 6-4 21 vs 4. Carlmont 8-2 21.33
6. Santa Clara 6-4 19.83 vs 3. Overfelt 8-2 23.33
7. Mountain View 6-4 18.83 vs 2. Burlingame 8-2 26
Smallest CBed – Burlingame 1423
Division V
8. Monta Vista Christian 5-5 18 vs 1. Carmel 10-0 27.5
5. Gonzales 10-0 23 vs 4. Del Mar 8-2 23.5
6. Saratoga 6-4 19.83 vs 3. Kings Academy 8-2 24
7. Capuchino 7-3 18.83 vs 2. Monterey 9-1 25
Highest CBed – Saratoga 1354
At-Large Teams
1. Del Mar 8-2 23.5
2. Capuchiino 7-3 18.83
3. Mountain View 6-4 18.83
Bubble: North Monterey County 6-4 18.5, Willow Glen 6-4 18, North Salinas 5-5 17.83, Monta Vista 5-5 17.
El Camino
Mountain View beat the league’s only remaining undefeated team Santa Clara 17-10. The league now has three one loss teams in Mountain View, Santa Clara, Saratoga and none of them play each other the rest of the year and will be favored in their remaining games but Santa Clara and Mountain View ill have to play Monta Vista. A three way tie would leave Santa Clara and Saratoga tied for first and Mountain View third needing to get an at-large berth. Current projections are for Mt. View to end up with 18.83 points and tied with Capuchino (Cap beat Mt. View in the regular season). No one in this league has clinched a play-off spot.
Cypress
Monterey beat San Lorenzo Valley and is the league’s only undefeated team. Monterey wins the leagues only play-off spot with either one win over Santa Cruz and St. Francis in the last two weeks or a King City loss to either North Monterey County or San Lorenzo Valley. Even then Monterey would have an at-large spot and is a lock for the field.
King City could get to 19.5 points with wins over both San Lorenzo Valley and North Monterey County where they will be a slight underdog in both games.
North Monterey County can get to 18.5 points with wins over King City and St. Francis where they will be slight favorites.
Mission
Carmel has locked up a play-off spot and will be the sole league champion with a week 9 win over Alisal. Alisal and Monte Vista Christian hold a two game lead for the last two automatic spots with two games to go. Both are in with just one more win and would even get in under a number of tie breaking scenarios even if they lose their last two games. Alisal has games left with Carmel and Soledad while MVC has North Salinas and Watsonville left on their schedule.
North Salinas can get an At-large berth with wins over MVC and Scotts Valley and would end likely end with 19.83 points.
Watsonville can get to 18.5 points with wins over Soledad and MVC.
Ocean
Burlingame is in a great position to win the league as they beat Kings Academy 31-20 in week 8 and are the league’s only undefeated team. San Mateo still only has one loss in league and still plays Burlingame to end the year in the little big game but can only get in if Kings Academy losses to 0-8 South San Francisco in week 9 and Burlingame losses to Sequoia and San Mateo. Highly likely Burlingame is sole league champion and Kings Academy goes as an at-large.
Santa Teresa
Independence and Overfelt clinched play-off berths with week 8 wins. The two are on track for a week 10 showdown to see if Independence wins the league outright or if they are co-champions. These two teams are the likely automatic qualifiers.
Del Mar is sitting with 19.5 points and is likely an at-large team and is favored to add to their point total with games left with Willow Glen and Silver Creek. Willow Glen is likely in charge of their own destiny and an get an at-large with wins over Del Mar and Leigh. Silver Creek is in a similar position and needs to win out over Branham and Del Mar.
Lake
Carlmont has clinched the league title for the league’s only play-off spot. Capuchino has a real shot at an at-large spot if they win out over Mills and Jefferson where they will be favored. Capuchino will probably not get any league champion points for playing Lincoln as the SF AAA league doesn’t finish until the week after the CCS finishes play.
Santa Lucia
Gonzales needs a week 9 win over one loss Stevenson to clinch the league title and the league’s only play off spot.
West Valley
Hill remains undefeated and Mount Pleasant still only has one loss. Both teams are favored in week 9 and the two teams play each other in week 10 and if Mt. Pleasant wins in week 9 against Lick then the week 10 winner will gain the league’s only play-off berth and be the 8 seed in Division IV.
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Yes, PalBooster includes league champ points as currently predicted for the end of season.
It would be nice for Carmel to Opt up, I believe they can finish top 2 and make a regional and possible state game. They will steam roll through the B League Playoffs.
In about a month they will be forced in to the Gabilan, you will get your wish soon enough.
CCS Projections After Week 9
A lot of wild action in Week 9 left a four way tie on the top of the Gabilan league and the real possibility for a five way tie for the title in the Mt. Hamilton league. Though the results jostled the seedings, the only change to the projected field though was the addition of Aragon bumping Menlo from the field. Aragon’s inclusion moved Pioneer down to Division 3 from Division 2.
Calpreps CCS ranking in Parentheses)
Projections
Division I
8. Piedmont Hills 4-6 19 (36) vs. 1. Wilcox 10-0 32.33 (2)
5. Salinas 6-4 23.5 (14) vs 4. San Benito 6-4 24 (17)
6. Los Gatos 6-4 22.33 (23) vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 29 (6)
7. Milpitas 6-4 21 (29) vs 2. Palo Alto 9-1 30 (5)
Smallest CBed – Wilcox 1969
Division II
8. Aragon 3-7 17.5 (27) vs 1. St. Francis 9-1 32 (1)
5. Serra 6-4 22 (4) vs 4. Leland 6-4 23 (32)
6. Mitty 5-5 21.5 (12) vs 3. Oak Grove 7-3 26.25 (19)
7. Christopher 5-5 20 (31) vs 2. Valley Christian 8-2 27(3)
Smallest CBed – Valley Christian 1629
Division III
8. Saint Ignatius 3-7 18 (15) vs 1. Palma 9-1 30.25 (7)
5. Live Oak 7-3 25 (18) vs 4. Terra Nova 8-2 25.5 (9)
6. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 21 (13) vs 3. Aptos 9-1 27.25 (8)
7. Pioneer 5-5 20 (41) vs 2. Sacred Heart Prep 9-1 28.33 (10)
Largest CBed – Pioneer 1619
At-Large Projections
1.Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 21
2.Christopher 5-5 20
3.Pioneer 5-5 20
4.St. Ignatius 3-7 18
Bubble: Cupertino 4-6 16.5, Menlo 4-6 16.33, Bellarmine 2-8 16
DeAnza
This division continues to go as projected. The four automatic spots have been clinched by Wilcox, Palo Alto, Milpitas and Los Gatos. All that is left is for Wilcox to clinch the solo league championship with a win over big underdog Cupertino. Not much drama in week 10 as Palo Alto will be heavy favorite over Homestead and Milpitas will be a big favorite over Fremont. Los Gatos has finished their season at 6-4. Cupertino will need to upset Wilcox to get an at-large berth and bump SI (or Bellarmine) from the field).
Gabilan
Slight upsets as San Benito hung on with a late interception to beat Salinas 42-35, while Palma came up with a goal line stand on the last play of the game to give Aptos their first defeat 40-35. All four teams have clinched automatic berths and sit at 5-1 in league. The final week sees Aptos play Salinas and San Benito play Palma with the two winners being crowned co-champions.
Christopher has 18 points and will automatically qualify for the play-offs with a week 10 win over 1-8 Gilroy in their year end rivalry game. Even with a loss to Gilroy Christopher would have a good chance to get an at-large berth.
Mt. Hamilton
Oak Grove nipped Lincoln 35-34 and Leland beat Piedmont Hills 42-35. The result is going into week 10 Oak Grove and Lincoln are 5-1 in league while Live Oak, Piedmont Hills, and Leland are 4-2. In week 10 Oak Grove plays at Live Oak while Lincoln squares off on the road with Piedmont Hills. Leland plays last place Westmont. Wins by Leland, Live Oak, and Piedmont Hills leaves the league with a five way tie for the league championship. Oak Grove and Lincoln can do no worse than tie for the league championship with a win. Regardless of week 10 results, the leagues four automatic berths will go to Oak Grove, Live Oak, Leland, and Piedmont Hills.
Pioneer is sitting with 18 points and gets to 20 points with a win over Santa Teresa and would clinch an at-large berth. Even with a loss Pioneer would have a good chance to get in.
PAL-Bay
Menlo-Atherton clinched the league title. The other three automatic spots have been clinched by Sacred Heart Prep, Terra Nova and Aragon. Menlo is sitting at 16.33 points and would need an upset over Sacred Heart Prep in week 10 to get an at-large berth.
WCAL
The Week 10 showdown between St. Francis and Serra will determine whether St. Francis is sole champion or if there is a likely three way tie with Serra, Valley Christian and St. Francis. The fourth automatic spot will go to the winner of Mitty and Sacred Heart Cathedral. Mitty currently has 19.5 points and SHC currently is at 20.5 points so the loser will get an at-large spot. The winner of the week 10 game between St. Ignatius and Bellarmine has a great chance to grad the section’s final at-large spot with 18 points. Both teams are currently at 16 points.
At-Large Picture
1.Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-4 20.5 points -Plays Mitty, win gives them an automatic spot.
2.Mitty 4-5 19.5 points -Plays SHC win gives them an automatic spot
3.Christopher 4-5 18 points – plays Gilroy need a win to get to 20 points
4. Pioneer 4-5 18 points - plays Santa Teresa need a win to get 20 points
5.Cupertino 4-5 16.5 points – Plays Wilcox in week 10 – need a wine to get to 18.5 points
6.Menlo 4-5 16.33 points - plays SHP in week 10 – need a win to get to 18.33 points
7.Saint Ignatius 2-7 16 points - Plays Bellarmine in week 10 and will have 18 points with a win
8. Bellarmine 2-7 16 points plays SI - win will give them 18 points
Divisions IV and V
8. Mountain View 6-4 18.83 (58) vs 1. Independence 10-0 28 (16)
5. Willow Glen 7-3 21(35) vs 4. Carlmont 8-2 21.33 (28)
6. Alisal 6-4 20 (30) vs 3. Overfelt 8-2 23.33 (22)
7. Santa Clara 6-4 19.83 (54) vs 2. Burlingame 8-2 26 (20)
Smallest CBed – Burlingame 1423
Division V
8. Mt. Pleasant 6-4 15.5 (76) vs 1. Carmel 10-0 27.5 (11)
5. Del Mar 7-3 21.5 (39) vs 4. Gonzales 10-0 23 (33)
6. Saratoga 6-4 19.83 (53) vs 3. Kings Academy 8-2 24 (21)
7. Monta Vista Christian (34) 5-5 17.5 vs 2. Monterey 9-1 25.5 (26)
Highest CBed – Saratoga 1354
At-Large Teams
1.Del Mar 6-3 currently at 19.5 plays Silver Creek in week 10 projected 21.5
2.Alisal 5-4 18 – plays Soledad in week 10 gets automatic berth with win on bubble with loss.
3.Willow Glen 6-3 currently at 17.5 - plays Leigh in week 10 gets 1 point if Mt. Pleasant wins and additional points if Lincoln has part of Mt. Hamilton championship projected 21.0
4.King City currently 5-4 17.5 – Plays San Lorenzo Valley in Week 10 as slight underdog. Projected at 17.5
5. Jefferson 16.83 - plays Kings Academy in Week 10 and will be a big underdog - with a win they will get to 18.83 and hold a common opponent tie breaker over Mt. View (Capuchino).
6.Mountain View 5-4 16.83 – plays Monta Vista in Week 10. Gets automatic berth with win and either Santa Clara or Saratoga loss. Gets at-large bid with win and King City loss and Jefferson loss. Projected at 18.83
7. Monta Vista - sitting at 16 points. Needs win over MT. View to get to 18 and Hill to beat Mt. Pleasant to get to 19 and then have King City lose to San Lorenzo Valley
El Camino
Three way tie for first going into week 10 between Santa Clara, Saratoga and Mountain View. Santa Clara plays Gunn, Saratoga plays Lynbrook and Mountain View takes on Monta Vista. All the league leaders will be favored. If it is a three way tie Santa Clara and Saratoga will e the league’s two automatic spots based on having more CCS points. Mt. View will be on the bubble for an at-large berth with a King City loss.
Cyprus
Monterey has clinched the leagues sole play off spot. King City controls their own destiny for an at-large spot if they can get past San Lorenzo Valley in week 10 where they will be a slight underdog.
Mission
Carmel has clinched the sole league championship and Monte Vista Christian has clinched a ply-off spot. The league’s final automatic berth is on the line in week 10 as Alisal plays Soledad. Alisal wins and they are in. Soledad started the season 0-7 put can make the play-offs with an upset over Alisal this week. If Alisal loses they will be on the bubble for an at-large and will need two of the following to lose in week 10 – Willow Glen, King City or Mountain View.
PAL Ocean
The leagues two qualifiers are Burlingame and Kings Academy. Burlingame wins the sole league championship with a win over San Mateo or will be co-champion with a loss.
Santa Teresa
Overfelt and Independence face off in week ten already having clinched the leagues two automatic pots. An Overfelt win will create co-champions while an Independence win will give them an undefeated season and a sole league championship.
Del Mar has already clinched an at-large berth and Willow Glen will get an at-large berth with a win over Leigh. Willow Glen is at 17.5 point and they will get an extra point with a Mount Pleasant win and at least another 0.5 point with a Lincoln win in week 10.
Lake
Carlmont clinched the leagues only play-off spot.
Santa Lucia
Gonzales has this leagues sole play-off spot and finishes an undefeated regular season with a win over 0-9 Harbor this week.
West Valley
Evergreen Velley upset Hill last week. As a result both Hill and Mount Pleasant have one league loss. The winner of this week’s Hill vs Mt. Pleasant game will determine the league’s only play-off spot. A Hill win will put them as the 8th seed in Division IV. A Mt. Pleasant win will give them the 8 seed in Division V. So a Hill win will likely push Burlingame down to Division V.
A lot of wild action in Week 9 left a four way tie on the top of the Gabilan league and the real possibility for a five way tie for the title in the Mt. Hamilton league. Though the results jostled the seedings, the only change to the projected field though was the addition of Aragon bumping Menlo from the field. Aragon’s inclusion moved Pioneer down to Division 3 from Division 2.
Calpreps CCS ranking in Parentheses)
Projections
Division I
8. Piedmont Hills 4-6 19 (36) vs. 1. Wilcox 10-0 32.33 (2)
5. Salinas 6-4 23.5 (14) vs 4. San Benito 6-4 24 (17)
6. Los Gatos 6-4 22.33 (23) vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 29 (6)
7. Milpitas 6-4 21 (29) vs 2. Palo Alto 9-1 30 (5)
Smallest CBed – Wilcox 1969
Division II
8. Aragon 3-7 17.5 (27) vs 1. St. Francis 9-1 32 (1)
5. Serra 6-4 22 (4) vs 4. Leland 6-4 23 (32)
6. Mitty 5-5 21.5 (12) vs 3. Oak Grove 7-3 26.25 (19)
7. Christopher 5-5 20 (31) vs 2. Valley Christian 8-2 27(3)
Smallest CBed – Valley Christian 1629
Division III
8. Saint Ignatius 3-7 18 (15) vs 1. Palma 9-1 30.25 (7)
5. Live Oak 7-3 25 (18) vs 4. Terra Nova 8-2 25.5 (9)
6. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 21 (13) vs 3. Aptos 9-1 27.25 (8)
7. Pioneer 5-5 20 (41) vs 2. Sacred Heart Prep 9-1 28.33 (10)
Largest CBed – Pioneer 1619
At-Large Projections
1.Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 21
2.Christopher 5-5 20
3.Pioneer 5-5 20
4.St. Ignatius 3-7 18
Bubble: Cupertino 4-6 16.5, Menlo 4-6 16.33, Bellarmine 2-8 16
DeAnza
This division continues to go as projected. The four automatic spots have been clinched by Wilcox, Palo Alto, Milpitas and Los Gatos. All that is left is for Wilcox to clinch the solo league championship with a win over big underdog Cupertino. Not much drama in week 10 as Palo Alto will be heavy favorite over Homestead and Milpitas will be a big favorite over Fremont. Los Gatos has finished their season at 6-4. Cupertino will need to upset Wilcox to get an at-large berth and bump SI (or Bellarmine) from the field).
Gabilan
Slight upsets as San Benito hung on with a late interception to beat Salinas 42-35, while Palma came up with a goal line stand on the last play of the game to give Aptos their first defeat 40-35. All four teams have clinched automatic berths and sit at 5-1 in league. The final week sees Aptos play Salinas and San Benito play Palma with the two winners being crowned co-champions.
Christopher has 18 points and will automatically qualify for the play-offs with a week 10 win over 1-8 Gilroy in their year end rivalry game. Even with a loss to Gilroy Christopher would have a good chance to get an at-large berth.
Mt. Hamilton
Oak Grove nipped Lincoln 35-34 and Leland beat Piedmont Hills 42-35. The result is going into week 10 Oak Grove and Lincoln are 5-1 in league while Live Oak, Piedmont Hills, and Leland are 4-2. In week 10 Oak Grove plays at Live Oak while Lincoln squares off on the road with Piedmont Hills. Leland plays last place Westmont. Wins by Leland, Live Oak, and Piedmont Hills leaves the league with a five way tie for the league championship. Oak Grove and Lincoln can do no worse than tie for the league championship with a win. Regardless of week 10 results, the leagues four automatic berths will go to Oak Grove, Live Oak, Leland, and Piedmont Hills.
Pioneer is sitting with 18 points and gets to 20 points with a win over Santa Teresa and would clinch an at-large berth. Even with a loss Pioneer would have a good chance to get in.
PAL-Bay
Menlo-Atherton clinched the league title. The other three automatic spots have been clinched by Sacred Heart Prep, Terra Nova and Aragon. Menlo is sitting at 16.33 points and would need an upset over Sacred Heart Prep in week 10 to get an at-large berth.
WCAL
The Week 10 showdown between St. Francis and Serra will determine whether St. Francis is sole champion or if there is a likely three way tie with Serra, Valley Christian and St. Francis. The fourth automatic spot will go to the winner of Mitty and Sacred Heart Cathedral. Mitty currently has 19.5 points and SHC currently is at 20.5 points so the loser will get an at-large spot. The winner of the week 10 game between St. Ignatius and Bellarmine has a great chance to grad the section’s final at-large spot with 18 points. Both teams are currently at 16 points.
At-Large Picture
1.Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-4 20.5 points -Plays Mitty, win gives them an automatic spot.
2.Mitty 4-5 19.5 points -Plays SHC win gives them an automatic spot
3.Christopher 4-5 18 points – plays Gilroy need a win to get to 20 points
4. Pioneer 4-5 18 points - plays Santa Teresa need a win to get 20 points
5.Cupertino 4-5 16.5 points – Plays Wilcox in week 10 – need a wine to get to 18.5 points
6.Menlo 4-5 16.33 points - plays SHP in week 10 – need a win to get to 18.33 points
7.Saint Ignatius 2-7 16 points - Plays Bellarmine in week 10 and will have 18 points with a win
8. Bellarmine 2-7 16 points plays SI - win will give them 18 points
Divisions IV and V
8. Mountain View 6-4 18.83 (58) vs 1. Independence 10-0 28 (16)
5. Willow Glen 7-3 21(35) vs 4. Carlmont 8-2 21.33 (28)
6. Alisal 6-4 20 (30) vs 3. Overfelt 8-2 23.33 (22)
7. Santa Clara 6-4 19.83 (54) vs 2. Burlingame 8-2 26 (20)
Smallest CBed – Burlingame 1423
Division V
8. Mt. Pleasant 6-4 15.5 (76) vs 1. Carmel 10-0 27.5 (11)
5. Del Mar 7-3 21.5 (39) vs 4. Gonzales 10-0 23 (33)
6. Saratoga 6-4 19.83 (53) vs 3. Kings Academy 8-2 24 (21)
7. Monta Vista Christian (34) 5-5 17.5 vs 2. Monterey 9-1 25.5 (26)
Highest CBed – Saratoga 1354
At-Large Teams
1.Del Mar 6-3 currently at 19.5 plays Silver Creek in week 10 projected 21.5
2.Alisal 5-4 18 – plays Soledad in week 10 gets automatic berth with win on bubble with loss.
3.Willow Glen 6-3 currently at 17.5 - plays Leigh in week 10 gets 1 point if Mt. Pleasant wins and additional points if Lincoln has part of Mt. Hamilton championship projected 21.0
4.King City currently 5-4 17.5 – Plays San Lorenzo Valley in Week 10 as slight underdog. Projected at 17.5
5. Jefferson 16.83 - plays Kings Academy in Week 10 and will be a big underdog - with a win they will get to 18.83 and hold a common opponent tie breaker over Mt. View (Capuchino).
6.Mountain View 5-4 16.83 – plays Monta Vista in Week 10. Gets automatic berth with win and either Santa Clara or Saratoga loss. Gets at-large bid with win and King City loss and Jefferson loss. Projected at 18.83
7. Monta Vista - sitting at 16 points. Needs win over MT. View to get to 18 and Hill to beat Mt. Pleasant to get to 19 and then have King City lose to San Lorenzo Valley
El Camino
Three way tie for first going into week 10 between Santa Clara, Saratoga and Mountain View. Santa Clara plays Gunn, Saratoga plays Lynbrook and Mountain View takes on Monta Vista. All the league leaders will be favored. If it is a three way tie Santa Clara and Saratoga will e the league’s two automatic spots based on having more CCS points. Mt. View will be on the bubble for an at-large berth with a King City loss.
Cyprus
Monterey has clinched the leagues sole play off spot. King City controls their own destiny for an at-large spot if they can get past San Lorenzo Valley in week 10 where they will be a slight underdog.
Mission
Carmel has clinched the sole league championship and Monte Vista Christian has clinched a ply-off spot. The league’s final automatic berth is on the line in week 10 as Alisal plays Soledad. Alisal wins and they are in. Soledad started the season 0-7 put can make the play-offs with an upset over Alisal this week. If Alisal loses they will be on the bubble for an at-large and will need two of the following to lose in week 10 – Willow Glen, King City or Mountain View.
PAL Ocean
The leagues two qualifiers are Burlingame and Kings Academy. Burlingame wins the sole league championship with a win over San Mateo or will be co-champion with a loss.
Santa Teresa
Overfelt and Independence face off in week ten already having clinched the leagues two automatic pots. An Overfelt win will create co-champions while an Independence win will give them an undefeated season and a sole league championship.
Del Mar has already clinched an at-large berth and Willow Glen will get an at-large berth with a win over Leigh. Willow Glen is at 17.5 point and they will get an extra point with a Mount Pleasant win and at least another 0.5 point with a Lincoln win in week 10.
Lake
Carlmont clinched the leagues only play-off spot.
Santa Lucia
Gonzales has this leagues sole play-off spot and finishes an undefeated regular season with a win over 0-9 Harbor this week.
West Valley
Evergreen Velley upset Hill last week. As a result both Hill and Mount Pleasant have one league loss. The winner of this week’s Hill vs Mt. Pleasant game will determine the league’s only play-off spot. A Hill win will put them as the 8th seed in Division IV. A Mt. Pleasant win will give them the 8 seed in Division V. So a Hill win will likely push Burlingame down to Division V.
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that is correct. It would take a Hill win and a King City loss to move Burlingame down to D V where they would be a #2 seed.
Thank you for responding you’re awesome for your posts.
NOTE: If Mitty loses to Sacred Heart Cathedral and St. Ignatius beats Bellarmine:
SHC gets 4th place in league, SI gets 5th place in league (beat Mitty), Mitty is 6th place in league.
SHC gets 4th place in league, SI gets 5th place in league (beat Mitty), Mitty is 6th place in league.
A Jefferson win would get them to 18.83 and with a King city loss they would have a coin flip with Mountain View right?
Tiger Fan - good catch - I wasn't tracking Jefferson as they were underdogs to Capuchino and Aal preps has them as a 27 point underdog to Kings Academy this week. However, if Jefferson pulls off another upset they will end up with 18.83 points and if King City losses to San Lorenzo Valley, Jefferson would win a tie breaker over Mountain View as Jefferson beat Capuchino while Mt. View lost to Capuchino.
Also Monta Vista has a chance to get to 19 and beat out Jefferson in the above scenario by beating Mt. View and having Hill beat Mt. Pleasant.
Also Monta Vista has a chance to get to 19 and beat out Jefferson in the above scenario by beating Mt. View and having Hill beat Mt. Pleasant.
Good catch - the Mitty point totals reflect a projection of being 5-5 but there was a typo on their record.
Question, before their projected win against silver creek you have Del Mar at 19.5 and after their win they are projected at 21.5. Giving them two points for the game. Because Santa Teresa is a B league wouldn’t they receive 2.5 points for a win against silver creek? Or have you already included points according to opponents league prior to win or loss?
I already have the schedule points built in for each team as they get them regardless of the result (they get 0.5 if they lose and 2.5 if they win - so they already have the 0.5).
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Mitty has been a huge dissapointment, too much hype surrounding the win over the worst Oakdale team in many years. Most expected big things from the QB but he seems lost most of the time and lacks accuracy. Good chance SHC will beat them this weekend.
Would TKA get another point because they played a league champion from San Diego? They played christian in week 1You're a machine PALBooster!
Mitty - SHC outcome won't have much impact on seedings. Unless upsets happen elsewhere - SHC is likely locked in as a #6 seed in Division III whether they win or lose (or a #7 seed if Carmel opts up) and Mitty is likely a #6 seed in Division II with a win and a #7 seed with a loss. For what its worth - Calpreps has Mitty listed as a 1 point favorite so basically a toss up game.
Likewise - Serra vs St. Francis might not not impact seedings much - if other games hold to form St. Francis will be a #1 seed win or lose while Serra is likely only to move from a 5 seed to a 4 seed (same opponent Leland - different home team) with a win. These two teams are likely to meet in the Division II semi-finals just two weeks after their week 10 meeting. Serra will likely have to win the section to advance to regionals while St. Francis will likely advance by making it to the section final.
The biggest impact on the section play-offs from week 10 would be either Bellarmine getting in the field and pushing Wilcox from Division I to Division II or Carmel opting up which would keep Valley Chrisitian in Division II under any scenario.
If Carmel opts up they would likely be a #3 seed and face Live Oak or Terra Nova in round one and the winner of SHP vs SHC in round two.
Likewise - Serra vs St. Francis might not not impact seedings much - if other games hold to form St. Francis will be a #1 seed win or lose while Serra is likely only to move from a 5 seed to a 4 seed (same opponent Leland - different home team) with a win. These two teams are likely to meet in the Division II semi-finals just two weeks after their week 10 meeting. Serra will likely have to win the section to advance to regionals while St. Francis will likely advance by making it to the section final.
The biggest impact on the section play-offs from week 10 would be either Bellarmine getting in the field and pushing Wilcox from Division I to Division II or Carmel opting up which would keep Valley Chrisitian in Division II under any scenario.
If Carmel opts up they would likely be a #3 seed and face Live Oak or Terra Nova in round one and the winner of SHP vs SHC in round two.
I already have factored that into KA's projection of 24 points. Project them to beat Jefferson and finish 8-2 and get 16 points for 8 wins - 6 schedule points (3 A's, 6 B's, 1 C) and 2 points for playing league champions (Burlingame and Christian from San Diego).
I think it comes down to Mitty's O-line failure to stop the blitz more than it is the floundering of the QB position.
His Completions is 47% 18/7, last year he was 53% 17/5. I was hoping for 65% as a Junior this year.
Get a more talented O-line with better training and you will see Bey's numbers improve. You can clearly see that pattern when comparing opponents with strong defensive line and good LB corp with those opponents who have less efficient defensive schemes. I think 65% is certainly possible with good offensive support.
Latest I hear, Carmel isn't opting up. People are pushing on the head coach but looks like not happening.
I’m not sure their o line has the size to handle some of the talent in the open division.
I'm Mitty Alum haven't missed a game in years. Very talented QB playing behind a sub par Oline and WR's who drop at least 6/ 8 balls a game.
Where did you hear this news Norcal? Disappointing if true from a fan perspective.
A good source, and after I posted on here I was contacted directly by Carmel High School person from the school controlled Twitter account who read and quoted my above pos and communicated to me Quote: "We love listening to you just make things up."
I communicated back I did not make this up and I did not. So either the person doesn't know or maybe HC is reconsidering. I will tell you I did not make it up By "pushing" I meant there was positive conversations of opinion on why they should they should opt up. Not literally that there were people hammering the coach. Just that in a friendly manner it would be great if they did. Push was the word given to me but I didn't take it as a negative. I also conveyed that I hope they would opt and that I think they could compete in the bracket and they wouldn't be overwhelmed and would have a shot. I also noted that they should if the players want to and that it would be a great experience and also that they will be playing in the Gab anyways and would be experience for next season. It seems I hit a sour cord because it isn't finalized as far as there is time to still opt up..
In any event, they very well may opt up in the end. Not sure if it notification needs to be in already (I have to read playoff opting up clause) or if they still have time. However, I did not make it up and frankly never make up stuff. I hope they do. I am clear when it is speculation. Maybe they are waiting for when the season is over and/or where they might be seeded (speculations), but I can tell you I didn't make it up.
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