Developing look at CIF State and Regional Bowl Divisions

[Cal 14]

Just going to start with this week's list, then post the discussion in a response.

Open Division (Section Division, Calpreps ratings)

North: San Mateo Serra (CCS Open, 67.2) vs. South: St. John Bosco (SS D-I, 90.1)

D-1AA

North: Clovis North (CS D-I, 66.1) vs. Folsom (SJS D-I, 58.8)

South: Gardena Serra (SS D-2, 67.6) vs. Lincoln (SDS Open, 67.5)

D-1A

North: De La Salle (NCS Open, 55.3) vs. vs. Rocklin (SJS D-II, 55.2)

South: Warren (SS D-3, 50.7) vs. La Serna (SS D-4, 49.5)

D-2AA

North: San Ramon Valley (NCS D-1, 52.8) vs. Los Gatos (CCS D-I, 42.3)

South: Mission Hills (SDS D-I, 46.3) vs. Western (SS D-5, 40.5)

D-2A

North: Grant (SJS D-III, 35.9) vs. San Marin (NCS D-4, 35.3)

South: Central Valley Christian (CS D-II, 34.7) vs. Del Norte (SDS D-II, 31.0)

D-3AA

North: Marin Catholic (NCS D-3, 35.1) vs. vs. Escalon (SJS D-IV, 34.0)

South: Murrieta Mesa (SS D-6, 30.8) vs. King (SS D-7, 29.3)

D-3A

North: Windsor (NCS D-2, 33.6) vs. McClymonds (OAL, 30.7)

South: Birmingham (LACS Open, 23.1) vs. Shafter (CS D-IV, 20.9)

D-4AA

North: Twelve Bridges (SJS D-V, 27.6) vs. Chico (NS D-II, 27.2)

South: St. Pius X-St. Matthias (SS D-8, 20.5) vs. Mount Miguel (SDS D-IV, 19.8)

D-4A

North: Sonora (SJS D-VI, 24.2) vs. Soquel (CCS D-II, 22.9)

South: Mission Oak (CS D-III, 14.3) vs. Santa Monica (SS D-9, 13.7)

D-5AA

North: Palma (CCS D-III, 18.4) vs. Woodland Christian (SJS D-VII, 16.8)

South: Ramona (SS D-11, 11.3) vs. Hemet (SS D-10, 9.8)

D-5A

North: University Prep (NS D-III, 10.6) vs. St. Vincent (NCS D-6, 10.0)

South: Mission Bay (SDS D-III, 8.3) vs. Banning (LACS D-I, 4.6)

D-6AA

North: Miramonte (NCS D-5, 9.2) vs. Palo Alto (CCS D-IV, 7.2)

South: Yucca Valley (SS D-12, 2.9) vs. Bishop (CS D-V, -4.1)

D-6A

North: Clear Lake (NCS D-VII, 1.6) vs. Colusa (NS D-IV, -0.5)

South: Holtville (SDS D-VAA, -4.4) vs. Vincent Memorial (SDS D-V, -6.1)

D-7AA

North: Portola (NS D-V, -4.1) vs. Woodside (CCS D-V, -7.5)

South: Desert Hot Springs (SS D-13, -12.4) vs. Angelou (LACS D-II, -14.3)

D-7A

North: Balboa (SFS, -13.4) vs. Mendota (CS D-VI, -14.0)

South: Hawthorne (SS D-14, -25.0 vs. Bell (LACS D-III, -29.7)

 

[FBAddict]

Just going to start with this week's list, then post the discussion in a response.

Open Division (Section Division, Calpreps ratings)

North: San Mateo Serra (CCS Open, 67.2) vs. South: St. John Bosco (SS D-I, 90.1)

D-1AA

North: Clovis North (CS D-I, 66.1) vs. Folsom (SJS D-I, 58.8)

South: Gardena Serra (SS D-2, 67.6) vs. Lincoln (SDS Open, 67.5)

D-1A

North: De La Salle (NCS Open, 55.3) vs. vs. Rocklin (SJS D-II, 55.2)

South: Warren (SS D-3, 50.7) vs. La Serna (SS D-4, 49.5)

D-2AA

North: San Ramon Valley (NCS D-1, 52.8) vs. Los Gatos (CCS D-I, 42.3)

South: Mission Hills (SDS D-I, 46.3) vs. Western (SS D-5, 40.5)

D-2A

North: Grant (SJS D-III, 35.9) vs. San Marin (NCS D-4, 35.3)

South: Central Valley Christian (CS D-II, 34.7) vs. Del Norte (SDS D-II, 31.0)

D-3AA

North: Marin Catholic (NCS D-3, 35.1) vs. vs. Escalon (SJS D-IV, 34.0)

South: Murrieta Mesa (SS D-6, 30.8) vs. King (SS D-7, 29.3)

D-3A

North: Windsor (NCS D-2, 33.6) vs. McClymonds (OAL, 30.7)

South: Birmingham (LACS Open, 23.1) vs. Shafter (CS D-IV, 20.9)

D-4AA

North: Twelve Bridges (SJS D-V, 27.6) vs. Chico (NS D-II, 27.2)

South: St. Pius X-St. Matthias (SS D-8, 20.5) vs. Mount Miguel (SDS D-IV, 19.8)

D-4A

North: Sonora (SJS D-VI, 24.2) vs. Soquel (CCS D-II, 22.9)

South: Mission Oak (CS D-III, 14.3) vs. Santa Monica (SS D-9, 13.7)

D-5AA

North: Palma (CCS D-III, 18.4) vs. Woodland Christian (SJS D-VII, 16.8)

South: Ramona (SS D-11, 11.3) vs. Hemet (SS D-10, 9.8)

D-5A

North: University Prep (NS D-III, 10.6) vs. St. Vincent (NCS D-6, 10.0)

South: Mission Bay (SDS D-III, 8.3) vs. Banning (LACS D-I, 4.6)

D-6AA

North: Miramonte (NCS D-5, 9.2) vs. Palo Alto (CCS D-IV, 7.2)

South: Yucca Valley (SS D-12, 2.9) vs. Bishop (CS D-V, -4.1)

D-6A

North: Clear Lake (NCS D-VII, 1.6) vs. Colusa (NS D-IV, -0.5)

South: Holtville (SDS D-VAA, -4.4) vs. Vincent Memorial (SDS D-V, -6.1)

D-7AA

North: Portola (NS D-V, -4.1) vs. Woodside (CCS D-V, -7.5)

South: Desert Hot Springs (SS D-13, -12.4) vs. Angelou (LACS D-II, -14.3)

D-7A

North: Balboa (SFS, -13.4) vs. Mendota (CS D-VI, -14.0)

South: Hawthorne (SS D-14, -25.0 vs. Bell (LACS D-III, -29.7)

I was looking forward to your post!!!!

 

[Cal 14]

This list could have taken any one of four varieties.

One of the big issues that is developing is that the Calpreps rating for Folsom has now exceeded that of De La Salle and I don't really see an avenue to flip back, unless the Spartans blow out San Ramon Valley this week. I don't really see that happening, while I can see the Bulldogs taking care of Inderkum by a good margin. Would the CIF rely on the head-to-head even if Folsom's rating starts to pull away? I'm not really sure.

Arguably the biggest change this week is a switch of Clovis North to the North Region. I did this because of the rapidly increasing Calpreps ratings for the Southern Section teams that appear to be filling the previously noted gaps. On this list, it appears that the scales are tipped in NorCal's favor, but keeping the Broncos in SoCal really tipped it in that region's favor. It's a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' scenario. I'm counting on a continued increase for the SS teams to make up much of the current gap this change has caused, making the field reasonable at the end of the sectional playoffs.

What this change also impacts is how Folsom and DLS are placed due to the issue above. It could end up depending on who wins the SJS D-II title. If it's Rocklin (more on that in a second), then the CIF might want to avoid a Bulldog-Thunder rematch. If it's St. Mary's, they might want to avoid a Spartan-Ram rematch. Functionally, the gaps among these four teams aren't very big, so it could be reasonable however the teams are placed. There is also a possibility that the DLS gets overtaken by either Rocklin or St. Mary's on Calpreps, which might doom their chances of being placed higher than Folsom.

Another similar scenario involved Grant and Los Gatos, whose regular season game resulted in a Pacer win. I'm currently sticking with the Wildcats in the higher position because of their gap in Calpreps rating and the likelihood that it will increase should they go on to win the CCS D-I title. While we might understand the impact of Grant's schedule on their rating, I'm unsure how well the CIF voters will. Seeing a team rated in the high 30s may not be desired to go up against a high-40/low-50 team (SRV, Pittsburg, or DLS), particularly when there is a mid-40 team available. Again, I could see this going either way, but my hunch is that they'll stick with the rating if the gap remains large or gets larger.

To make room for Clovis North's move to NorCal, I have placed the highest available CS team that was previously in that region in the South (Bishop). While this doesn't really help that region very much in terms of adjusting for potential mismatches in the lower divisions, those may be an undeniable reality either way.

As may be observed, some remaining #1 seeds are no longer in the list. Due to the very high number of high seeds going down and the strong moves on Calpreps by others, I decided to switch to the highest-rated remaining teams in each division. If the last two weeks are any indication, there will be a number of changes forthcoming still.

 

[THEOC89]

This list could have taken any one of four varieties.

One of the big issues that is developing is that the Calpreps rating for Folsom has now exceeded that of De La Salle and I don't really see an avenue to flip back, unless the Spartans blow out San Ramon Valley this week. I don't really see that happening, while I can see the Bulldogs taking care of Inderkum by a good margin. Would the CIF rely on the head-to-head even if Folsom's rating starts to pull away? I'm not really sure.

Arguably the biggest change this week is a switch of Clovis North to the North Region. I did this because of the rapidly increasing Calpreps ratings for the Southern Section teams that appear to be filling the previously noted gaps. On this list, it appears that the scales are tipped in NorCal's favor, but keeping the Broncos in SoCal really tipped it in that region's favor. It's a 'damned if you do, damned if you don't' scenario. I'm counting on a continued increase for the SS teams to make up much of the current gap this change has caused, making the field reasonable at the end of the sectional playoffs.

What this change also impacts is how Folsom and DLS are placed due to the issue above. It could end up depending on who wins the SJS D-II title. If it's Rocklin (more on that in a second), then the CIF might want to avoid a Bulldog-Thunder rematch. If it's St. Mary's, they might want to avoid a Spartan-Ram rematch. Functionally, the gaps among these four teams aren't very big, so it could be reasonable however the teams are placed. There is also a possibility that the DLS gets overtaken by either Rocklin or St. Mary's on Calpreps, which might doom their chances of being placed higher than Folsom.

Another similar scenario involved Grant and Los Gatos, whose regular season game resulted in a Pacer win. I'm currently sticking with the Wildcats in the higher position because of their gap in Calpreps rating and the likelihood that it will increase should they go on to win the CCS D-I title. While we might understand the impact of Grant's schedule on their rating, I'm unsure how well the CIF voters will. Seeing a team rated in the high 30s may not be desired to go up against a high-40/low-50 team (SRV, Pittsburg, or DLS), particularly when there is a mid-40 team available. Again, I could see this going either way, but my hunch is that they'll stick with the rating if the gap remains large or gets larger.

To make room for Clovis North's move to NorCal, I have placed the highest available CS team that was previously in that region in the South (Bishop). While this doesn't really help that region very much in terms of adjusting for potential mismatches in the lower divisions, those may be an undeniable reality either way.

As may be observed, some remaining #1 seeds are no longer in the list. Due to the very high number of high seeds going down and the strong moves on Calpreps by others, I decided to switch to the highest-rated remaining teams in each division. If the last two weeks are any indication, there will be a number of changes forthcoming still.

Great work on this as always!!!

That would be Awful if They Put Folsom in D1AA instead of DLS…..

What is the point of scheduling tough and beating a team head to head with the same record if you are just going to get shafted in the end?…..

I don’t think the CIF cares about Re-matches….. They have matched up DLS and Folsom in re-matches the last 2 years in D1AA…..

Hopefully ST Mary’s wins D2 and common sense prevails and we get to see Folsom vs ST Mary’s for D1-A…..

 

[bulldogmgc]

This is all good but a bit premature. Still a couple of weeks of football to be played. DLS rating should surpass Folsom’s after this coming week of football with DLS going up against SRV “again” and Folsom going up against Inderkum (rated much lower than SRV) and the following week vs the winner of Central Catholic and Oak Ridge, both teams rated below SRV. DLS’s rating will even more so surpass Folsom, should St. Mary’s win out. However, if Rocklin wins D2, that will grow Folsom’s SoS and push Folsom’s rating back ahead of DLS. But, the head-to-head outcome of the past will supersede the rating difference, just like it did placing Manteca ahead of Granite Bay in the playoff seeding when Granite Bay was rated higher than Manteca and Manteca has the head-to-head edge. These couple more weeks of football will be dynamically updating the ratings for all teams still playing in the playoffs. So, it’s still premature. Best to take a stab at this after all section playoffs have been completed and all that awaits are the NorCal regionals and resumes to be finalized and pre-regional game ratings established.

 

[FBAddict]

This is all good but a bit premature. Still a couple of weeks of football to be played. DLS rating should surpass Folsom’s after this coming week of football with DLS going up against SRV “again” and Folsom going up against Inderkum (rated much lower than SRV) and the following week vs the winner of Central Catholic and Oak Ridge, both teams rated below SRV. DLS’s rating will even more so surpass Folsom, should St. Mary’s win out. However, if Rocklin wins D2, that will grow Folsom’s SoS and push Folsom’s rating back ahead of DLS. But, the head-to-head outcome of the past will supersede the rating difference, just like it did placing Manteca ahead of Granite Bay in the playoff seeding when Granite Bay was rated higher than Manteca and Manteca has the head-to-head edge. These couple more weeks of football will be dynamically updating the ratings for all teams still playing in the playoffs. So, it’s still premature. Best to take a stab at this after all section playoffs have been completed and all that awaits are the NorCal regionals and resumes to be finalized and pre-regional game ratings established.

You think it's early for this report but many of us have been thinking about this since the beginning of the season. Of course Cal 14's report would be more accurate at the end of the season - duh.

But part of the fun here is looking at the various scenarios for the possible and probable match ups for RBG and SBG divisions.

It is certain there will be changes as the next couple weeks transpire. And we will have other thoughts in the next round.

 

[Cal 14]

This is all good but a bit premature. Still a couple of weeks of football to be played. DLS rating should surpass Folsom’s after this coming week of football with DLS going up against SRV “again” and Folsom going up against Inderkum (rated much lower than SRV) and the following week vs the winner of Central Catholic and Oak Ridge, both teams rated below SRV. DLS’s rating will even more so surpass Folsom, should St. Mary’s win out. However, if Rocklin wins D2, that will grow Folsom’s SoS and push Folsom’s rating back ahead of DLS. But, the head-to-head outcome of the past will supersede the rating difference, just like it did placing Manteca ahead of Granite Bay in the playoff seeding when Granite Bay was rated higher than Manteca and Manteca has the head-to-head edge. These couple more weeks of football will be dynamically updating the ratings for all teams still playing in the playoffs. So, it’s still premature. Best to take a stab at this after all section playoffs have been completed and all that awaits are the NorCal regionals and resumes to be finalized and pre-regional game ratings established.

Games in the playoffs count roughly double that of regular season games. It's not on the main website anymore, but it used to say they were worth 2.1x. So, if DLS beats SRV, their Wolves rating will drop at least a couple of points. If Oak Ridge beats Central Catholic, their rating will go up at least a couple of points. On top of this, a Spartan win means that's their last game, while Folsom has both Inderkum and the finals.

For this week's game to positively impact Folsom's rating, they'll need to win by at least 22-24. That's something I think they have the capability to do. In the same manner as with the SS, again, having more playoff games give more opportunities for that 2.1x boost.

So, no, unless DLS blows out SRV (20+), I don't believe their rating will be higher at the end of the year. Your comparison of Manteca and Granite Bay is with the SJS, not the CIF. The CIF voters still may choose to go that way... I don't discount that. But, if DLS ends up as the 4th-rated team in NorCal... I don't know. We've never had that scenario before.

As for all of this being premature, the point is simply to monitor the progress. I never called this as my final prediction (I'm not even sure whether I would call my final list a prediction). But if you would prefer to wait until the end of the sectional playoffs, then do so. You don't have to review my lists (yes, I will be making one next week, too). My feelings won't be hurt.

 

[Cal 14]

Great work on this as always!!!

That would be Awful if They Put Folsom in D1AA instead of DLS…..

What is the point of scheduling tough and beating a team head to head with the same record if you are just going to get shafted in the end?…..

I don’t think the CIF cares about Re-matches….. They have matched up DLS and Folsom in re-matches the last 2 years in D1AA…..

Hopefully ST Mary’s wins D2 and common sense prevails and we get to see Folsom vs ST Mary’s for D1-A…..

I suspect that as long as DLS remains #3 in NorCal on Calpreps, they'll be given the D-1AA slot. I think it becomes interesting if they fall to #4. A lot of times the CIF voters go by convention, but we know they haven't always been consistent with it. It will be interesting to see if they stick to convention this year.

In the past, things have been a lot more clear-cut. Serra beat both DLS and Folsom last year, but those two won the other two big NorCal titles. By putting Liberty in the South Region, there wasn't any other viable contender for D-1AA. If they do put Clovis North in the South this year, then I don't think there's much question that we'll see DLS-FHS once again.

This year really is different than previous in that we have so many teams rated 50+. I suspect that if SRV loses next week and beats Pittsburg, those results will balance out and their rating will remain about what it is now. That puts them at the bottom of this group, but the others are really close. Same thing with all of the teams rated 33-36. They've been bouncing around each week and several good matchups could be had between any two of them.

Even with Clovis North and Serra... good chance that the Broncos end up with a higher rating, despite the Padres' wins over DLS and Folsom. The question would be "Where would Serra like to be?" Do they want another game with either MD or SJB? Or might they welcome a chance at D-1AA?

 

[THEOC89]

I suspect that as long as DLS remains #3 in NorCal on Calpreps, they'll be given the D-1AA slot. I think it becomes interesting if they fall to #4. A lot of times the CIF voters go by convention, but we know they haven't always been consistent with it. It will be interesting to see if they stick to convention this year.

In the past, things have been a lot more clear-cut. Serra beat both DLS and Folsom last year, but those two won the other two big NorCal titles. By putting Liberty in the South Region, there wasn't any other viable contender for D-1AA. If they do put Clovis North in the South this year, then I don't think there's much question that we'll see DLS-FHS once again.

This year really is different than previous in that we have so many teams rated 50+. I suspect that if SRV loses next week and beats Pittsburg, those results will balance out and their rating will remain about what it is now. That puts them at the bottom of this group, but the others are really close. Same thing with all of the teams rated 33-36. They've been bouncing around each week and several good matchups could be had between any two of them.

Even with Clovis North and Serra... good chance that the Broncos end up with a higher rating, despite the Padres' wins over DLS and Folsom. The question would be "Where would Serra like to be?" Do they want another game with either MD or SJB? Or might they welcome a chance at D-1AA?

Do you think that if DLS Beats SRV and ST Mary’s wins SJS D2, would that Affect DLS’s rating to keep them in D1AA?….

At that point DLS would have wins over Both the SJS D1 and D2 Champ…. It seems like Common sense would say yes….

It’s also possible that SRV beats PITT and wins NCS D1…. So that would 3 Nor Cal Section Champs that DLS would have beaten at the D1/Open Level….

If SRV beats DLS do you think they have a chance at D1AA?….. That would be a really interesting to see how that would play out!,… 🤣

 

[bulldogmgc]

Some helpful information sharing how the seedings will be assigned (hint: not just Calpreps ratings) …

Competitive equity used for seedings and pairings

So how will they place the teams when the commissioners meet on Sunday, December 6 to decide on the pairings?

They will use a formula similar to what Simmons of the CIF-SS and others described as using, competitive equity. This competitive equity will be determined using the following criteria as stated on the CIFState.org web site:

a. Win-Loss Record (Preseason, League, Section Playoffs)

b. Strength of Schedule (Preseason, League, Section Playoffs)

c. Head to Head Competition

d. Common Opponents

e. Various rankings may be consulted when placing teams (i.e. MaxPreps, Cal-Hi Sports, Cal Preps)

f. Opponents win-loss record

g. Suitability to represent the State in a Bowl Championship with regards to Pursuing Victory with Honors and acceptable standards of sportsmanship.

Once this criterion is applied the commissioners will place the 13 teams in the south and the north regardless of enrollment.

Source: https://www.prep2prep.com/feature.aspx?articleID=6936

 

[kiddman32]

I don't follow football nearly as closely as I do hoops, but I have a couple of points to mention or ask about:

1) Just an observation here: Clovis North is having a hell of a year! Their hoops team is a load, too. Based on what I saw in the Modesto Christian scrimmage event the other day, Clovis North has a very good chance to go deep in the basketball playoffs.

2: much more of a question: SoCal's Open rep should be the winner in the Southern Section playoffs, and Bosco is the favorite since they beat second-fave Mater Dei earlier. Should they meet in the section final as expected. is the loser of that game completely out rather than repping the South in the top D1 bowl?

 

[THEOC89]

I don't follow football nearly as closely as I do hoops, but I have a couple of points to mention or ask about:

1) Just an observation here: Clovis North is having a hell of a year! Their hoops team is a load, too. Based on what I saw in the Modesto Christian scrimmage event the other day, Clovis North has a very good chance to go deep in the basketball playoffs.

2: much more of a question: SoCal's Open rep should be the winner in the Southern Section playoffs, and Bosco is the favorite since they beat second-fave Mater Dei earlier. Should they meet in the section final as expected. is the loser of that game completely out rather than repping the South in the top D1 bowl?

Yes, The Loser of the MD vs SJB game is out…. They put all their top teams in1 bracket so whoever wins SSD1 is the So Cal Open Rep and no one else moves on….

Interesting though…. Even though SJB beat MD 28-0, that doesn’t mean anything…. A few years ago, SJB beat MD like 40-10 or something in the regular season and MD won 17-14 I think in the playoffs…..

 

[bulldogmgc]

I also anticipate the CIF will be using CalHiSports rankings over Calpreps ratings in regards to division/seeding, as has been in recent history. Mark Tennis/CalHiSports is consulted more so by the CIF committee than the Calpreps computer when it comes to regional matchups/placement.

CalHiSports has DLS ranked higher than Folsom, and I’m confident the head-to-head competition is a major factor in their ranking. With Central Section D1 champion being relegated to the North regionals and their CalHiSports ranking between Serra-SM and DLS, I am projecting the following NorCal matchups/selection:

Open: Serra-San Mateo
D1AA: Central D1 (Clovis North) vs NCS Open (DLS)
D1A: NCS D1 (SRV/Pitt) vs SJS D1 (Folsom)
D2AA: SJS D2 (St. Mary’s/Rocklin) vs CCS D1 (Los Gatos)

I don’t have a subscription with CalHiSports to view additional rankings or access to their article on projected bowl matchups, but I’m guessing the above matchups covers teams from their top 25 and where they might land for NorCal regional championship game..

Note: Out of Central D1 section, Clovis East, Central, and/or Liberty could potentially upset Clovis North and shake things up. DLS could fall to SRV (for NCS Open) and play Pittsburg for the NCS D1 title. Likewise, there could be some shake-up with SJS D1 and D2 along with CCS D1 should the top seeds fall. But, the above picks are based on current projections to win NorCal D1/D2 titles and retaining the current rankings by CalHiSports.

 

[THEOC89]

I also anticipate the CIF will be using CalHiSports rankings over Calpreps ratings in regards to division/seeding, as has been in recent history. Mark Tennis/CalHiSports is consulted more so by the CIF committee than the Calpreps computer when it comes to regional matchups/placement.

CalHiSports has DLS ranked higher than Folsom, and I’m confident the head-to-head competition is a major factor in their ranking. With Central Section D1 champion being relegated to the North regionals and their CalHiSports ranking between Serra-SM and DLS, I am projecting the following NorCal matchups/selection:

Open: Serra-San Mateo
D1AA: Central D1 (Clovis North) vs NCS Open (DLS)
D1A: NCS D1 (SRV/Pitt) vs SJS D1 (Folsom)
D2AA: SJS D2 (St. Mary’s/Rocklin) vs CCS D1 (Los Gatos)

I don’t have a subscription with CalHiSports to view additional rankings or access to their article on projected bowl matchups, but I’m guessing the above matchups covers teams from their top 25 and where they might land for NorCal regional championship game..

Note: Out of Central D1 section, Clovis East, Central, and/or Liberty could potentially upset Clovis North and shake things up. DLS could fall to SRV (for NCS Open) and play Pittsburg for the NCS D1 title. Likewise, there could be some shake-up with SJS D1 and D2 along with CCS D1 should the top seeds fall. But, the above picks are based on current projections to win NorCal D1/D2 titles and retaining the current rankings by CalHiSports.

Nice work!!!…. The games I am hoping to see are either ST Mary’s vs Folsom or SRV vs Folsom!!!….

 

[Cal 14]

I also anticipate the CIF will be using CalHiSports rankings over Calpreps ratings in regards to division/seeding, as has been in recent history. Mark Tennis/CalHiSports is consulted more so by the CIF committee than the Calpreps computer when it comes to regional matchups/placement.

Neither have been ‘consulted’ for many years. I think the CIF has grown confident they know what they’re doing now. I do think the number of controversies are typically low these days.

CalHiSports has DLS ranked higher than Folsom, and I’m confident the head-to-head competition is a major factor in their ranking. With Central Section D1 champion being relegated to the North regionals

The CS is split between the North and South. No guarantee where any of the divisions are placed. Last year, CS D-I was in the South for the first time.

and their CalHiSports ranking between Serra-SM and DLS, I am projecting the following NorCal matchups/selection:

Open: Serra-San Mateo
D1AA: Central D1 (Clovis North) vs NCS Open (DLS)
D1A: NCS D1 (SRV/Pitt) vs SJS D1 (Folsom)
D2AA: SJS D2 (St. Mary’s/Rocklin) vs CCS D1 (Los Gatos)

Didn’t you say something about it being too early to do this? 🤨

I don’t have a subscription with CalHiSports to view additional rankings or access to their article on projected bowl matchups,

They aren’t doing bowl projections this year (at least so far).

but I’m guessing the above matchups covers teams from their top 25 and where they might land for NorCal regional championship game..

The vast majority of the bowl games involve teams not in the state top 50. Even when Tennis was doing projections, he had to use Calpreps because he either didn’t or couldn’t research down to the lower levels. The Cal-Hi top 50 ends around D-3AA. They do have small and medium school rankings, but teams like Portola, Yucca Valley, or Holtville don’t typically show up on those. Calpreps is the only source that does.

Note: Out of Central D1 section, Clovis East, Central, and/or Liberty could potentially upset Clovis North and shake things up. DLS could fall to SRV (for NCS Open) and play Pittsburg for the NCS D1 title. Likewise, there could be some shake-up with SJS D1 and D2 along with CCS D1 should the top seeds fall. But, the above picks are based on current projections to win NorCal D1/D2 titles and retaining the current rankings by CalHiSports.

Yes, a lot of things can still happen in the playoffs.

 

[Cal 14]

Do you think that if DLS Beats SRV and ST Mary’s wins SJS D2, would that Affect DLS’s rating to keep them in D1AA?….

At that point DLS would have wins over Both the SJS D1 and D2 Champ…. It seems like Common sense would say yes….

It’s also possible that SRV beats PITT and wins NCS D1…. So that would 3 Nor Cal Section Champs that DLS would have beaten at the D1/Open Level….

If SRV beats DLS do you think they have a chance at D1AA?….. That would be a really interesting to see how that would play out!,… 🤣

If St. Mary’s wins SJS D-II, that will boost DLS’s rating some. Convention would strongly suggest they’d get the D-1AA nod in this case. If Rocklin wins, less so, but head-to-head result with Folsom may still prevail.

If SRV wins this weekend, common-opponent might be used. The CIF has not always been consistent about this, but the most recent example was Serra splitting two games with Saint Francis after the Lancers beat the Spartans. I’m not certain that some of the criteria are as important ‘down ballot’ as they are at the top. Though their rating would get a very strong boost, probably up to somewhere between 59-62 (Folsom territory). DLS besting Pitt the following week would also help.

A side effect of an SRV win would be a ratings drop for Serra. The discussion between them and Clovis North would definitely heat up. Saint Francis losing last week really took a chance at a ratings bolster away, relegating them to win the CCS Open title by beating the 7 and 8 seeds. I doubt that’s how the section envisioned it. We’ll see how long the CCS keeps this plan if this happens again.

 

[Cal 14]

I don't follow football nearly as closely as I do hoops, but I have a couple of points to mention or ask about:

1) Just an observation here: Clovis North is having a hell of a year! Their hoops team is a load, too. Based on what I saw in the Modesto Christian scrimmage event the other day, Clovis North has a very good chance to go deep in the basketball playoffs.

Yes, Clovis North has been pretty solid this year. The Tri-Rivers has been strong this year and the Broncos rumbled through it. Now, in the playoffs, they’re having to do it again. They really shocked people by beating JSerra.

2: much more of a question: SoCal's Open rep should be the winner in the Southern Section playoffs, and Bosco is the favorite since they beat second-fave Mater Dei earlier. Should they meet in the section final as expected. is the loser of that game completely out rather than repping the South in the top D1 bowl?

As OC pointed out, the SS does not advance anyone except for the regular divisional winners. The only augmentation they make is a reduction of the size of the D-1 bracket. Interestingly, this limits the total number of teams that makes the playoffs overall. I’ve seen a number of people revel in the small bracket and others complain that their team got left out. 🤷🏻‍♂️

 

[bulldogmgc]

Neither have been ‘consulted’ for many years.

Not true. Mark Tennis and his rankings are still involved. How much is not clear. Please look again at my source …

e. Various rankings may be consulted when placing teams (i.e. MaxPreps, Cal-Hi Sports, Cal Preps)

The CS is split between the North and South. No guarantee where any of the divisions are placed. Last year, CS D-I was in the South.

Not according to my source:

Divisional Classifications

Since the Southern Region, which includes the Central Section, has more schools, the Central Section is being divided between the south and the north.

“In order to balance the number of teams from the north and the south, Central Section Divisions I, III and V have been slotted in the north and Central Section Divisions II, IV and VI have been slotted in the south,” CIF State Media Relations Officer Rebecca Brutlag quoted off the CIF website. “The Central Section teams will be slotted in their respective regions in a manner to ensure that two teams from that Section would not play each other in a CIF State Football Championship Game.

Didn’t you say something about it being too early to do this?

Yes, I did. We still have several football games to be played. Ratings and rankings will definitely be impacted should games not play out as expected. Look again! I did say that selections will be shaken up should some teams lose in an upset. My responses have included this, just as you have shared we really don’t know where they are going to place/seed the teams. 100% agree! I have said the same for years. This year being no different. My response only provides a different perspective that likewise plays into the “uncertainty” of where teams may be placed/seeded. in other words, premature!

They aren’t doing bowl projections this year.



The vast majority of the bowl games involve teams not in the state top 50. Even when Tennis was doing projections, he had to use Calpreps because he either didn’t or couldn’t research down to the lower levels. The Cal-Hi top 50 ends around D-3AA. They do have small and medium school rankings, but teams like Portola, Yucca Valley, or Holtville don’t typically show up on those. Calpreps is the only source that does.

Agree! Disagree! Please look at my source again, please. Yes, computer ratings (Calpreps) does provide this data the committee seeks. But, it is NOT the “only” source. Your analysis is based solely on Calpreps ratings. CIF nor the sections (ie. SJS) do not 100% rely on Calpreps ratings. If they did the SJS D2 seedings would be much different than occurred. For example, Manteca was rated below Granite Bay and even Del Oro, despite Manteca having a head to head win vs Granite Bay. Even Jesuit was rated below Granite Bay.

Yes, a lot of things can still happen in the playoffs.

Yes, indeed!

Btw, great job! I know it’s a lot of work, lots of research, lots to digest, lots to think about, …, etc. I used to do a ton of this when trying to predict SJS playoff selection/seedings in prior years, quite a few years ago. Found it so frustrating as I and many others couldn’t understand how the heck the SJS committee came up with their selection/seedings. Even this year, I was taking back puzzled why they kept Tracy as a #7 seed with no penalty/discipline in cheating (having forfeited 4 of their pre-league games due to ineligible player). What kind of message does that send? Karma took care of it as #10 Downey beat Tracy in the rematch. Please don’t let my response saying this analysis of yours is “premature” be taken personally or cause any offense. That was not my intent. I just personally (for the most part) have given up “trying” to predict/project how these committees come up with selections. But, I do appreciate others like you “trying”. I’m very interested in your final analysis just after the section championships have been decided and prior to the CIF playoff committee selecting the matchups to see how well you do. Again, much kudos! Good luck with your analysis/projections!

I do recommend referring to the article (source) I found that “might” lend more clues to how the CIF playoff committee thinks and what they will do when it comes to selecting the matchups. Hope you find it helpful. I’m sure there are other sources of data out there that may say the same or different.

Much regards!

 

[Cal 14]

Not true. Mark Tennis and his rankings are still involved. How much is not clear. Please look again at my source …

e. Various rankings may be consulted when placing teams (i.e. MaxPreps, Cal-Hi Sports, Cal Preps)

Not according to my source:

Divisional Classifications

Since the Southern Region, which includes the Central Section, has more schools, the Central Section is being divided between the south and the north.

“In order to balance the number of teams from the north and the south, Central Section Divisions I, III and V have been slotted in the north and Central Section Divisions II, IV and VI have been slotted in the south,” CIF State Media Relations Officer Rebecca Brutlag quoted off the CIF website. “The Central Section teams will be slotted in their respective regions in a manner to ensure that two teams from that Section would not play each other in a CIF State Football Championship Game.


Yes, I did. We still have several football games to be played. Ratings and rankings will definitely be impacted should games not play out as expected. Look again! I did say that selections will be shaken up should some teams lose in an upset. My responses have included this, just as you have shared we really don’t know where they are going to place/seed the teams. 100% agree! I have said the same for years. This year being no different. My response only provides a different perspective that likewise plays into the “uncertainty” of where teams may be placed/seeded. in other words, premature!

Agree! Disagree! Please look at my source again, please. Yes, computer ratings (Calpreps) does provide this data the committee seeks. But, it is NOT the “only” source. Your analysis is based solely on Calpreps ratings. CIF nor the sections (ie. SJS) do not 100% rely on Calpreps ratings. If they did the SJS D2 seedings would be much different than occurred. For example, Manteca was rated below Granite Bay and even Del Oro, despite Manteca having a head to head win vs Granite Bay. Even Jesuit was rated below Granite Bay.

Yes, indeed!

Btw, great job! I know it’s a lot of work, lots of research, lots to digest, lots to think about, …, etc. I used to do a ton of this when trying to predict SJS playoff selection/seedings in prior years, quite a few years ago. Found it so frustrating as I and many others couldn’t understand how the heck the SJS committee came up with their selection/seedings. Even this year, I was taking back puzzled why they kept Tracy as a #7 seed with no penalty/discipline in cheating (having forfeited 4 of their pre-league games due to ineligible player). What kind of message does that send? Karma took care of it as #10 Downey beat Tracy in the rematch. Please don’t let my response saying this analysis of yours is “premature” be taken personally or cause any offense. That was not my intent. I just personally (for the most part) have given up “trying” to predict/project how these committees come up with selections. But, I do appreciate others like you “trying”. I’m very interested in your final analysis just after the section championships have been decided and prior to the CIF playoff committee selecting the matchups to see how well you do. Again, much kudos! Good luck with your analysis/projections!

I do recommend referring to the article (source) I found that “might” lend more clues to how the CIF playoff committee thinks and what they will do when it comes to selecting the matchups. Hope you find it helpful. I’m sure there are other sources of data out there that may say the same or different.

Much regards!

Uhhh… you source is 8 years old. CS D-I champ Liberty played against Pitt in the CIF D-1A game last year, where they won 48-20. I was there. It was ugly.

 

[bulldogmgc]

Uhhh… you source is 8 years old. CS D-I champ Liberty played against Pitt in the CIF D-1A game last year, where they won 48-20. I was there. It was ugly.

Good catch! Dang I’m old! Lol

 

[Streak One]

Great post as always @Cal 14.

Interesting takeaway is that SoCal has the top three rated teams and then next six are from NorCal.

Also, Escalon-Marin Catholic and Windsor-McClymonds would be fun matchups

 

[Cal 14]

Great post as always @Cal 14.

Thank you very much.

Interesting takeaway is that SoCal has the top three rated teams and then next six are from NorCal.

I think there are a number of things at play here…

1. Some of SoCal’s high ratings are due to the additional playoff game boost (2 games so far vs 1 in NorCal). At the end of the regular season, these largely favored NorCal.

2. The SS has really gone to a strong competitive equity system, the partial effect of which are closely matched playoff games. These games give really nice boosts for victories in comparison to many of the blowouts we see in NorCal without equity.

3. Putting only 8 teams in SS D-1 is equivalent to 2 in the CCS, 3 in the NCS, and 4 in the SJS, respectively and individually. Some powerful teams advance.

4. A case of “little brother” wanting to beat “big brother” in that the NorCal sections are stacking their own fields a bit. While we have no Mater Dei or St. John Bosco, we have depth as a result of these tactics.

Also, Escalon-Marin Catholic and Windsor-McClymonds would be fun matchups

Yes, that middle section has a number of really interesting possibilities. But the fluctuation here makes a lot of work for me to account for the changes. 😋

 

[salgovernaleisaturtle]

they aren't going to put teams from the same section against each other, right? has that happened before?

so if that's the case, there isn't going to be a folsom v sjs d2, or a dls v srv rematch. kind of makes the pairings a little more obvious.

 

[FBAddict]

they aren't going to put teams from the same section against each other, right? has that happened before?

so if that's the case, there isn't going to be a folsom v sjs d2, or a dls v srv rematch. kind of makes the pairings a little more obvious.

It seems to be a priority of CIF to align non-sectional matches. However they will do so on occasion. For example, there were two NorCal bowl games last year from the same section. In the possible scenario reported by @Cal 14, forcing non-sectional matches might increate some lop-sided matches.

Historically, the CIF committee will use other factors for seeding the bowl games beyond these Calpreps ratings but generally they will not stray too far from this objective tool.

 

[Cal 14]

they aren't going to put teams from the same section against each other, right? has that happened before?

so if that's the case, there isn't going to be a folsom v sjs d2, or a dls v srv rematch. kind of makes the pairings a little more obvious.

When the bowls first expanded, the SS successfully lobbied for their teams to all be in different divisions. The next year, the other sections put an end to that.

 

[Bluedog2]

THE PLAYOFF'S, THERE ARE BIGGAMES COMING UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND THERE MEANS PAYING ATTENTION TO WINNING, NO ERRORS AND FULL EFFORT. GAMES TO WATCH IS DLS VS SRV AND PITTSBURG VS CALIFORNIA..THE KEY IS SPEED AND TRENCH BATTLE THAT WILL WIN OR LOOSE A GAME.
FRIDAY NIGHT
Heritage 5-6 at El Cerrito 9-1...The pick...EC 40 heritiage 20....Too much speed by EC

Californuia 7-4 at Pittsburg 12--1....There may be a wet field which may slow down the Pirrates, but it will be up to the Grizzlies to out smart and out play and keep Pittsburg from turning the ends and win the trench battle..
Pittsburg 39 Californiua 34

Dls 9-2 at Srv 10-1.....If SRV wants to beat DLS, they must be red hot on running, passing and tough on line play
San Ramon Valley 31 DLS 27...a lot of ifs...

Vallejo 8-3 at Acalanes 7-4....Vallejo is one of the surprivse teams this year, but the Don's have faced some hard contact this last few weeks, but they will being coming strong......Acalanes 41 Vallejo 13

Cardinal Newman 10-1 at Las Lomas 10-1....CN is going into this game ready to take care of business, the Knights are up and comng but are not ready for this contest.....Cardinal Newman 27 Las Lomas 19

Alhambra 7-3 at Miramnte 7-3.....The Bulldogs are not ready to meet the Mat's, next year Alhambra will be nasty..
Miramonte 39 Alhambra 21.

Carrillo 6-5 at San Marin 11-0.....San Marin 44 Carrillo 13
Saturday 11-18
Tam 8-3 at Marin Catholic 11-01.....Marin Catholic comes out shooting and wins...MC38 Carrillo 18

Rancho Cotate 7-4 at Windsor 9-1-1.....Windsor keeps on rolling ......Windsor 35 RC 13
Saturday11-18
Analy 7-4 at St Bernard 8-3.......This may be one of the best games that will be hard fought to win, but St.B 31 Analy 14

Fortuna 8-5 at St. Vincents of Petaluma 9-2.....Another hard fought game ..Fortuna did not take the long bus ride to loose....This one is close.....Fortuna 26 St. vincents 19...
.

 

[Santa Ball]

https://www.calhisports.com/2023/11/15/cif-regional-bowl-projections/

 

[bulldogmgc]

https://www.calhisports.com/2023/11/15/cif-regional-bowl-projections/

Interestingly, my projections for NorCal regional matchups are pretty darn close to CalHiSports. Exception, is that I have CCS D1 (Los Gatos) matched up against SJS D2 (St. Mary's/Rocklin) instead of SJS D3 (Grant). My error forgetting that Grant had beaten Los Gatos 22-21 earlier in the season, even though Los Gatos (42.3) is rated higher than Grant (35.9) at the moment by Calpreps.

Open: Serra-San Mateo
D1AA: Central D1 (Clovis North) vs NCS Open (DLS)
D1A: NCS D1 (SRV/Pitt) vs SJS D1 (Folsom)
D2AA: SJS D2 (St. Mary’s/Rocklin) vs CCS D1 (Los Gatos) <== SJS D3 (Grant)

It is still quite possible, my projections might play out instead of CalHiSports, with the consideration that CIF may prefer matchups from different sections (instead of SJS D2 vs D3) and that early season loss was just a 1 pt margin. Still, we have a couple of more weeks before the section champs are determined. Too premature to really project. CIF will surprise all of us and mix things up. LOL.

 

[Cal 14]

Interestingly, my projections for NorCal regional matchups are pretty darn close to CalHiSports. Exception, is that I have CCS D1 (Los Gatos) matched up against SJS D2 (St. Mary's/Rocklin) instead of SJS D3 (Grant). My error forgetting that Grant had beaten Los Gatos 22-21 earlier in the season, even though Los Gatos (42.3) is rated higher than Grant (35.9) at the moment by Calpreps.

Open: Serra-San Mateo
D1AA: Central D1 (Clovis North) vs NCS Open (DLS)
D1A: NCS D1 (SRV/Pitt) vs SJS D1 (Folsom)
D2AA: SJS D2 (St. Mary’s/Rocklin) vs CCS D1 (Los Gatos) <== SJS D3 (Grant)

It is still quite possible, my projections might play out instead of CalHiSports, with the consideration that CIF may prefer matchups from different sections (instead of SJS D2 vs D3) and that early season loss was just a 1 pt margin. Still, we have a couple of more weeks before the section champs are determined. Too premature to really project. CIF will surprise all of us and mix things up. LOL.

The two chief problems with Cal-Hi’s rankings are:

1. Too strong of dependence on single game results. They want to keep Grant over Los Gatos because of their close win early in the seasons. The explanation being that the Pacers won despite not even having their good transfer players. Ok, but were those players playing when they lost to Monterey Trail? The same Mustang team that lost to Inderkum, who lost to Del Oro, who is not ranked at all?

After 11 games, one single game is only 9.1% of their entire season and reliance on that exclusively requires mental gymnastics and rationalization. Yes, Grant beat Los Gatos. But the Wildcats also beat Wilcox, who beat St. Francis, who beat Monterey Trail, who beat Grant. Does that mean LG is better? No, it means that when teams are relatively similar, just about anything can happen.

Grant and LG made upwards moves this week, but MT is even listed as a bubble team despite their win over the Pacers just a couple of weeks ago.

Another example is their placement of SRV over Rocklin or St. Mary’s. Are the Wolves ranked higher and nearer to DLS because of that overtime game? That means they’re close?

Ok, then why isn’t Campo ranked close to SRV? They also went to overtime with the Wolves. Doesn’t that mean Campo is also close to DLS? No one here would make that argument. But Cal-Hi weighs the DLS-SRV game heavily and ignores the SRV-Campo game.

2. Even when they make a mistake on a ranking, they’ll use that mistake to justify new rankings.

Example: Early in the year, Clovis West was ranked 35 (or something like that) despite a series of questionable wins. When I pointed out to them that unranked Clovis East had the much better resume, they said “in their system they don’t drop teams who keep winning”. Ok, well, CW ended up taking 5th in the TRAC. But then he’ll justify a jump by someone like Central by saying they beat CW ‘who was good enough to be ranked 35 earlier in the year’.

No, they weren’t. Cal-Hi just made a mistake on the ranking.

 

[larry legend33]

2 teams that have some momentum that haven’t been mentioned.
Cardinal Newman in ncs D3. They look awfully good against Las Lomas. Marin Catholic will have a battle.
Oak Ridge in SJS d1. Folsom gap is super small. A crack. They are beatable. Inderkum, rocklin, GB and OR first meeting , etc all showed this.

 

[larry legend33]

If Clovis North, OR, and Rocklin win could we see something like this?

Clovis North vs Rocklin
DLS vs Oak Ridge

If OR and Rocklin win what are odds they play each other again?

 

[MC415]

2 teams that have some momentum that haven’t been mentioned.
Cardinal Newman in ncs D3. They look awfully good against Las Lomas. Marin Catholic will have a battle.
Oak Ridge in SJS d1. Folsom gap is super small. A crack. They are beatable. Inderkum, rocklin, GB and OR first meeting , etc all showed this.

Marín Catholic has no momentum offensively, their QB play and offensive line play is horrendous for a program if their caliber, MC never should have the 4th best QB in marin……..plus they are a penalty machine which is a problem every year

 

[ararar]

I cautiously believe Serra will make a game of it in the Open this year

 

[larry legend33]

E

Marín Catholic has no momentum offensively, their QB play and offensive line play is horrendous for a program if their caliber, MC never should have the 4th best QB in marin……..plus they are a penalty machine which is a problem every year

i still think they will give newman all they can handle
They always do. Newman QB play is bad too but there line and RB is very good.

 

[THEOC89]

I cautiously believe Serra will make a game of it in the Open this year

I hope this is the case…. I think Their Best shot would be against MD because MD’s offense can go really stagnant…..

But it will be tough sledding for Serra against either of MD or SJB’s defenses though…. They can both play lights out….

 

[ararar]

I hope this is the case…. I think Their Best shot would be against MD because MD’s offense can go really stagnant…..

But it will be tough sledding for Serra against either of MD or SJB’s defenses though…. They can both play lights out….

True they can but as we have witnessed this season they both have flaws that we haven’t seen in the last few years

 

[Cal 14]

I cautiously believe Serra will make a game of it in the Open this year

Their defense this year is a lot better than last year and the offense has seemingly developed, too. I say seemingly because the CCS overall is not as strong as the last two years, so it's hard to say exactly after the Padres early wins against DLS and Folsom where they weren't all that explosive.

 

[northbaybbguru]

Marín Catholic has no momentum offensively, their QB play and offensive line play is horrendous for a program if their caliber, MC never should have the 4th best QB in marin……..plus they are a penalty machine which is a problem every year

Until CN can actually beat Marin Catholic in a big game im in wait and see mode.

They couldn't beat MC when Cronin was there (accept when they were CLEARLY more talented) and that took a miracle 45 yd fg late in 4th in a torrential rainstorm by a MaxPreps all American kicker.

MC has owned CN under Cronin and we will see how Sanchez does this year (with what looks to me like pretty even talent overall between the 2 teams)

 

[Cal 14]

If Clovis North, OR, and Rocklin win could we see something like this?

Clovis North vs Rocklin
DLS vs Oak Ridge

If OR and Rocklin win what are odds they play each other again?

Cal-Hi would almost certainly rank the teams: DLS, Rocklin, Oak Ridge.

Calpreps might have them as Rocklin, DLS, Oak Ridge... it would be close between DLS and Oak Ridge, with the Trojans possibly being higher.

The SJS has always been good at pressing for its schools in the bowl votes.

Keep in mind that Tennis currently has SRV and Pitt in a higher division than SJS D-II. I just don't agree with that.

 

[larry legend33]

Until CN can actually beat Marin Catholic in a big game im in wait and see mode.

They couldn't beat MC when Cronin was there (accept when they were CLEARLY more talented) and that took a miracle 45 yd fg late in 4th in a torrential rainstorm by a MaxPreps all American kicker.

MC has owned CN under Cronin and we will see how Sanchez does this year (with what looks to me like pretty even talent overall between the 2 teams)

I do like our chances this year. The Goff game was tough because Scooby Wright broke ankle and he was such a big loss , but yes MC has been a tough one for CN.