Early look at CIF State and Regional Bowl Divisions

[Cal 14]

Now that nearly all of the playoffs have either begun or at least been established, the CIF football playoffs are taking shape with some upsets and team movements on Calpreps.com.


Open Division (Section Division, Calpreps ratings)

North: Serra (CCS Open, 71.5) vs. South: St. John Bosco (SS D-I, 88.7)

D-1AA

North: De La Salle (NCS Open, 59.5) vs. Folsom (SJS D-I, 59.5)

South: Clovis North (CS D-I, 65.4) vs. Lincoln (SDS Open, 64.9)

D-1A

North: San Ramon Valley (NCS D-1, 55.5) vs. St. Marys (SJS D-II, 53.0)

South: Rancho Cucamonga (SS D-2, 61.0) vs. San Juan Hills (SS D-3, 47.3)

D-2AA

North: St. Francis (CCS D-I, 44.2) vs. San Marin (NCS D-4, 37.0)

South: Torrey Pines (SDS D-I, 42.7) vs. Loyola (SS D-4, 38.4)

D-2A

North: Marin Catholic (NCS D-3, 35.5) vs. El Cerrito (NCS D-2, 34.5)

South: Central Valley Christian (CS D-II, 32.1) vs. Del Norte (SDS D-II, 30.6)

D-3AA

North: Grant (SJS D-III, 33.8) vs. McClymonds (OAL, 33.5)

South: Newbury Park (SS D-5, 29.1) vs. Ontario Christian (SS D-6, 26.3)

D-3A

North: Escalon (SJS D-IV, 30.5) vs. Twelve Bridges (SJS D-V, 27.1)

South: Birmingham (LACS Open, 20.3) vs. Chino (SS D-7, 19.6)

D-4AA

North: Chico (NS D-II, 26.1) vs. Archbishop Mitty (CCS D-II, 23.5)

South: Brentwood (SS D-8, 19.1) vs. Mount Miguel (SDS D-IV, 18.7)

D-4A

North: Sutter (SJS D-VI, 19.6) vs. Menlo-Atherton (CCS D-III, 12.4)

South: Shafter (CS D-IV, 18.4) vs. Rio Hondo Prep (SS D-9, 11.2)

D-5AA

North: University Prep (NS D-III, 8.7) vs. St. Vincent (NCS D-6, 7.6)

South: Mission Prep (CS D-III, 10.7) vs. Torrance (SS D-10, 6.5)

D-5A

North: Miramonte (NCS D-5, 6.6) vs. Clear Lake (NCS D-7, 6.3)

South: Mission Bay (SDS D-III, 6.3) vs. Quartz Hill (SS D-11, 4.0)

D-6AA

North: Ripon Christian (SJS D-VII, 7.7) vs. Palo Alto (CCS D-IV, 2.0)

South: Banning (LACS D-I, 2.6) vs. Holtville (SDS D-VAA, -3.3)

D-6A

North: Colusa (NS D-IV, 0.3) vs. Bishop (CS D-V, -5.2)

South: Coachella Valley (SS D-12, -3.4) vs. Vincent Memorial (SDS D-V, -7.8)

D-7AA

North: Portola (NS D-V, -5.4) vs. Woodside (CCS D-V, -7.8)

South: Desert Hot Springs (SS D-13, -15.6) vs. Arleta (LACS D-II, -18.9)

D-7A

North: Arvin (CS D-VI, -15.2) vs. Lincoln (SFS, -15.9)

South: Artesia (SS D-14, -27.8) vs. Bell (LACS D-III, -34.0)


Notable changes from last week:

North - San Marin's win over Marin Catholic caused some shuffling around D-2A and 3-AA. Calpreps rating changes adjusted D-5 and D-6. The discovery of D-7 in the NCS eliminates a need for a bye.

South - One #1 seed went down in the SS playoffs (San Gabriel, SS D-13), so the #2 seed is now listed above. SS playoffs with full brackets made a large impact in Calpreps rating movements (and therefore divisional placements) vs. the sections whose teams mostly had first-round byes.

One interesting thing to note overall is that the top seeds are no longer always the highest-rated team on Calpreps. For the purpose of this list, however, the highest remaining seeds will continue to be utilized. As the playoffs progress, we'll see the teams in the stronger brackets likely make big jumps over other teams.

 

[FBAddict]

Fun review and projection... And according to current CP ratings, most of the games are closely matched. It will be interesting to see how many the CP projected teams will actually make it to the CRB bowl games and how closely the CIF committee seeds the brackets to these projections.

Thanks for the work @Cal 14

 

[Cal 14]

When the bowl games expanded, the SS successfully lobbied to have their teams play those from other sections, rather than each other. I think the SDS and LACS quickly put an end to that thereafter.

One key thing is the impact of the playoffs themselves, particularly since Calpreps rates those games with greater significance than regular season games. The SS teams will get larger boosts than pretty much the rest of the state in this regard because all of the brackets are full and other sections either only have 3 rounds or they have byes. In many of the middle divisions in the first projection, NorCal teams enjoyed a nice gap, but there were some SS teams that made huge jumps (5+ points) in the past week. I would not be surprised if we see more of that.

Yes, a lot of these divisions are really balanced at the moment. Only the bottom two are real mismatches now.