Very early look at CIF State and Regional Bowl Divisions

[Cal 14]

Now that playoff divisions have been established for the Sac-Joaquin, Central, Southern, Los Angeles City, and San Diego sections, I thought we could start to parse out the placement for the CIF State and Regional bowl divisions. No predictions are made here as to who will win these divisions, rather the teams listed are only the top seeds. For the Northern, San Francisco, Oakland, and North Coast sections, I merely took the highest rated teams from each division on Calpreps.com. For the Central Coast Section, I have borrowed the great work of @PAL Booster to position teams within divisions, again only taking the top seeds. A lot can happen over the next four weeks, but I figure that even if these particular teams don't end up in these spots, the divisional placements should be pretty close. I did not take into consideration whether some of the very small schools would opt out of the regional games, so that could also alter these moving forward.

Interestingly, as I crunched the numbers, it became apparent that (believe it or not) the south needed the help of the Central Section more than did the north. As such, I have 4 CS teams in the south region and only two in the north. I think as you look at how things fall out, you'll see why I chose this path.

Open Division (Section Division, Calpreps ratings)

North: Serra (CCS Open, 70.2) vs. South: St. John Bosco (SS D-I, 90.8)

D-1AA

North: De La Salle (NCS Open, 58.1) vs. Folsom (SJS D-I, 58)

South: Lincoln (SDS Open, 62.9) vs. Clovis North (CS D-I, 62.6)

D-1A

North: San Ramon Valley (NCS D-1, 54.4) vs. St. Marys (SJS D-II, 53.6)

South: Rancho Cucamonga (SS D-2, 59) vs. Torrey Pines (SDS D-I, 42.3)

D-2AA

North: St. Francis (CCS D-I, 43.1) vs. Marin Catholic (NCS D-3, 36.6)

South: San Juan Hills (SS D-3, 41.3) vs. Loyola (SS D-4, 34.9)

D-2A

North: McClymonds (OAL, 33.5) vs. San Marin (NCS D-4, 33.5)

South: Del Norte (SDS D-II, 31.7) vs. Central Valley Christian (CS D-II, 29.7)

D-3AA

North: El Cerrito (NCS D-2, 33.2) vs. Grant (SJS D-III, 32.3)

South: Newbury Park (SS D-5, 25.7) vs. Ontario Christian (SS D-6, 21.4)

D-3A

North: Escalon (SJS D-IV, 28.8) vs. Twelve Bridges (SJS D-V, 27.4)

South: Birmingham (LACS Open, 18.9) vs. Shafter (CS D-IV, 18.4)

D-4AA

North: Chico (NS D-II, 25.5) vs. Salinas (CCS D-II, 23.3)

South: Mount Miguel (SDS D-IV, 16.8) vs. Chino (SS D-7, 16.7)

D-4A

North: Sutter (SJS D-VI, 19.9) vs. Menlo-Atherton (CCS D-III, 11.5)

South: Mission Prep (CS D-III, 13.5) vs. Brentwood (SS D-8, 12.9)

D-5AA

North: University Prep (NS D-III, 7.9) vs. Ripon Christian (SJS D-VII, 7.7)

South: Mission Bay (SDS D-III, 7.7) vs. Rio Hondo Prep (SS D-9, 7.5)

D-5A

North: Miramonte (NCS D-5, 7.4) vs. Moreau Catholic (NCS D-6, 4.5)

South: Torrance (SS D-10, 2.8) vs. Quartz Hill (SS D-11, 0.1)

D-6AA

North: Colusa (NS D-IV, 1.2) vs. King's Academy (CCS D-IV, 0.8)

South: Banning (LACS D-I, -0.8) vs. Holtville (SDS D-VAA, -4.6)

D-6A

North: Bishop (CS D-V, -4.9) vs. Portola (NS D-V, -6.3)

South: Coachella Valley (SS D-12, -6.5) vs. Vincent Memorial (SDS D-V, -10.6)

D-7AA

North: Greenfield (CCS D-V, -9.8) vs. bye

South: San Gabriel (SS D-13, -17.6) vs. Arleta (LACS D-II, -21.5)

D-7A

North: Arvin (CS D-VI, -17.6) vs. Lincoln (SFS, -17.8)

South: Artesia (SS D-14, -30) vs. Bell (LACS D-III, -37.7)


I chose the put a bye at D-7AA because Arvin and Lincoln so closely matched on Calpreps, as are Bishop and Portola. Greenfield seemed to fall right in between these two divisions. You could make an argument for giving Sutter a bye and moving teams downward, some close games start to get altered and I don't think the CIF will want to do the CCS and a big school like Menlo-Atherton any favors.

 

[larry legend33]

Good work.
Grant has no biz being in D-3AA. That is utterly ridiculous.
Be interesting to see what happens this weekend up in north bay. Newman, MC, and SM are all undefeated. MC and SM square off. Newman plays a very good Windsor team. Wouldn’t be surprised if 3 of these teams end up in a bowl game.

 

[Cal 14]

Good work.
Grant has no biz being in D-3AA. That is utterly ridiculous.

Grant is a team that could move up to D-2A due to their playoff bracket, but that's about it. Their season really hasn't been as good as people thought it would be.

 

[larry legend33]

Grant is a team that could move up to D-2A due to their playoff bracket, but that's about it. Their season really hasn't been as good as people thought it would be.

They looked damn good when they played oak ridge but losing to Monterey Trail was disappointing. Don’t write them off yet. My take was a compliment

 

[Santa Ball]

Very nice work Cal 14, appreciate the insight.

 

[Cal 14]

They looked damn good when they played oak ridge but losing to Monterey Trail was disappointing. Don’t write them off yet. My take was a compliment

I think their placement has a lot to do with the NorCal sections stacking their teams. The NCS and CCS are advancing 2 D-I teams each. The SJS functionally is as well by allowing St. Mary’s to stay in D-II.

This is also why I felt the CS top divisions needed to be listed amongst the SoCal teams as there is a greater drop off from their top division or two.

I do agree that the loser of Marin Catholic and San Marin could go to 3AA and the winner to 2A. All of those teams appear to be very close (at least on paper).

 

[HSfan82]

Great insights but Moreau in 5A? They lost to St Mary’s and got boatraced by O’Dowd

 

[Cal 14]

Great insights but Moreau in 5A? They lost to St Mary’s and got boatraced by O’Dowd

They're currently the #1 rated team in NCS D-6. The actual NCS selection committee might choose someone else as the #1 seed, in which case the list would change. Again, I'm not making any predictions as to who I think will win these divisions.

The CIF committee has been using Calpreps to establish the divisions, so their overall placement here is exactly where they would probably currently fall. Out of the 4 teams in that division, they have the 2nd highest rating.

Calpreps NCS D-6

 

[padrewhipser]

Is Clovis North going to be put in the South?

 

[Cal 14]

Is Clovis North going to be put in the South?

I don't know what the CIF will officially do, but look at the numbers. Minus the Central Section, NorCal has 5 teams rated 50+, while SoCal only has 3. If Clovis North is placed in NorCal, that would make it 6 to 3.

While it would make D-1AA very even, the next several divisions would have SoCal teams playing one division higher than relative counterparts in NorCal. D-2AA, for instance would have St. Mary's (53.6) vs. St. Francis (43.1) in the north and Loyola (34.9) vs. Del Norte (31.7) in the south. Mismatched division. This would go on through almost all of the remaining divisions.