Folsom vs Oak Ridge
One of the biggest regular season games in the past years, also happens to be the SFL Championship Game. SJS #1 Folsom (9-0) vs #2 Oak Ridge (9-0). There is sure to be a showdown this Friday in El Dorado Hills. To get in the spirit of things and because I’ve meticulously followed both teams the past few seasons, here is my in-depth break down of each team:
Starting with the OL:
Folsom’s two most dominant linemen this season have been the right gaurd ( Sr. Noah Lunday) and the left tackle (Sr. Matt Frost). Both are extremely fast and athletic linemen that excell in pass protection and downfield blocking. There have been few players that present a challenge for these two. Even the mighty Evan Tattersall and Will Craig of Granite Bay were completely shut-down by these two, having 0 pressures and 0 sacks against Lunday and Frost.
Oak Ridge’s front-five is lead by arguably the best lineman in the league, Brian Catchings (Sr.) and the dominant Zach Welch (Jr.) only solidifies the already impressive Oak Ridge OL. Larger, bulkier linemen than the two from Folsom- these two are much more successful run-blockers than their Folsom counterparts.
Both teams have some of the best linemen in the section. Don’t let the lack of offers on Folsom’s front-five deceive you. Offers are given based off of perceived potential- at the moment Frost and Lunday are two very good High School linemen. Because I don’t believe either team has a particularly dominant D-Line, as long as both lines do their job, this game (offensively) should be decided by the skill positions. I don’t think either teams OL gives them a significant advantage.
Next the QB:
Both teams have almost identical QBs as far as play style goes.
I think Bennet (Folsom) has both a better arm and is a better runner; however, Baldachino (OR) has more expirence and (I believe) a higher football IQ.
Bennet seems to be more athletic, make bigger plays, and throw prettier balls. Baldachino seems to make the right desicion more often, limiting sacks and turnovers. I can’t remember watching Bennet throw a ball away this season, instead he scrambles (sometimes for a loss) or tries to force a pass and is intercepted. Although Baldachino has that dual-threat capability, he knows when to throw out of a sack and try again on the next down. Because of this I give a slight QB advantage to OR.
Now for the WR/RB/TE:
This is where Folsom has a major advantage. WR Joe Ngata is arguably the best receiver in the state. Sophomore Elijah Badger is just as fast and equally hard to cover. CJ Hutton and Brandon Rupchock both have big play ability and are serious threats to the OR defense. Folsom’s RB Daniel Ngata is extremely fast and powerful continuing to both run over, and run past defenders. Fullback Mark Weldy and Justin Viega are both extremely powerful and great lead blockers, yet seldom carry the ball. Infact I’m unsure if either has had a carry this season.
OR has top-talent Justin Poerio, who is sure to cause trouble for the Folsom secondary. Although he lacks the size and strength in respect to Ngata, he is a deadly weapon and sure to be a key factor in the game. Austin Jerrard is not to be overlooked, as he has been a nightmare for opposing defenses. Ex-Bulldog Davin Simmons will likely be playing with a chip on his shoulder, which he lowers as he runs through most defenses like a hot-knife through butter. The young Folsom DL will need to be playing their best in order to contain Simmons.
Although both teams have a TON of talent at the offensive skill positions, I think the advantage definitely goes to Folsom. Their receiving corps is one of the best in the state, if not the country.
NOW TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BALL:
DL:
Folsom’s Cruz Lara (Sr.) and Tyler Hardeman (Jr.) have been two of the best preforming D-Linemen this season. Lara has both the speed and strength to beat nearly any tackle in the area. On the inside, Hardeman rarely stays blocked, flying across the field to make tackles for a loss.
Oak Ridge has Austin Jerrard and Eli Otero respectively. Jerrard is a excellent athelete, but wil being going up against probably the best pass-pro OL in the section (having allowed only 5 sacks total this season). Otero is bigger, but not necessarily stronger than Hardeman. I believe Hardeman is more athletic, but I don’t think either teams DL gives them a significant advantage over the other.
Regarding the linebackers:
Folsom’s MLB Ezra Gullewich went down earlier in the season due to a knee injury and hasn’t returned since. Dylan Jorge has played very well, scoring a couple touchdowns off of interceptions. However, without Gullewich I think Folsom has a weak linebacker group this year. Oak Ridge has a defenite advantage with USD bound middle backer Nate Otto leading the group. Although OR may have better backers than Folsom, I’m not confident that they will be able to cover Folsom recievers or get off of blocks. The Folsom LB group should have no problem with coverage, but wil struggle with the run.
Battle of the secondaries:
Again, I think Folsom has a definite advantage. Tanner Ward (Sr.), Brandon Rupchock (Sr.), CJ Hutton (So.), and Richard Cornelius (Sr.) are some of the most athletic defensive backs in the section. Corneilius and Ward are seldom beat, and likely Sac State bound Rupchock is deadly fast and aggressive. I don’t think there is a weak point that OR can target in the Folsom secondary. The same can not be said for OR. Although Justin Poerio is phenomenal, OR needs 4 or 5 Poerios for each one of Folsom’s recievers. Poerio should handle whoever he is covering, but that leaves 3 or 4 of the best recievers in the area on an at best mediocre DB. Folsom could easily target slower, shorter, less athletic DBs like ex-Bulldog Braden Anderson. Anderson, who is making a name for himself at OR, is familiar with what it feels like to be burned by Bulldog recievers, after lining up against them on scout team all last season. The Bulldog DBs shouldn’t have a problem with most of the OR recievers, while the OR recievers will struggle against nearly all of Folsom’s recievers. I watched Rocklin easily throw for nearly 200 yards, a pair of touchdowns, and 0 INT against OR. Friday I watched as Folsom decimated Rocklins passing offense to less than 100 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT. The Bulldogs have a definite advantage with their secondary. The Trojans overall weak secondary could be the death of them against a team like Folsom.
OTHER FACTORS:
Home Field Advantage:
My son works for Folsom, and my grandson plays for Oak Ridge. Therefore, I’ve spent plenty of time at both stadiums. Oak Ridge feels like a college, and is a louder, more intimidating place to play. Oak Ridge has a definite homefield advantage.
Depth:
Folsom has hardly any two-way starters. Those who do play both ways, are all part of a rotation to ensure everyone can catch their breath. For example, CJ Hutton and Brandon Rupchock both start at slot receiver and safety. They are hardly ever on the field at the same time. OR is almost entirely two-way starters, and is not a very deep team. The pace of the Folsom offense is something that OR hasn’t seen this season, and something that is very challenging to prepare for. I think Folsom’s tempo, depth, and minimal two-way players gives them a significant advantage over the Trojans. The OR stars will be sucking wind after taking 50 continuous snaps, while most Folsom players won’t have even broken a sweat and are coming fresh of the bench. This will be a major factor in the game.
Weather:
There is rain forecasted on Friday. This could be detrimental for a a traditionally pass-only team, like Folsom. This season, with a dual threat QB and Daniyel Ngata, Folsom’s run-game is equally potent. Even with that in mind, if the rain causes Folsom to have to reach deeper into their playbook, it could provide OR with a slight advatange.
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In Conclusion:
My money is on Folsom. I’m certain they are the more talented football team. When they play to their full potential they are a legitimate State Bowl competitor. However, Oakridge has been the more consistent team this year. Oak ridge continues to beat teams by being more disciplined, conditioned, and consistent. I think we all know that Folsom’s best possible game blows Oak Ridges best possible game out of the water- but what we don’t know is which team (if either) will play their best game. Even though OR is more consistent, Folsom’s inconsistent games against common opponents have been won by a much greater margin than Oak Ridge’s consistent ones (i.e. Del Oro, one of Folsom’s worst performances this season- and they won by 44).
NOTE:
I tried to be as unbiased as possible, but I was also realistic. Realistically, Folsom wins this game by a lot. The beauty of the game of football is that any given Friday (or Saturday) night, any given team can win (Syracuse vs Clemson). I’m more excited for this game than I have been any other game in my sons 9 years at Folsom or sons 3 at Oakridge. On paper, Folsom wins easy, but football isn’t played on paper and Oak Ridge is the only team that they’ve played so far that I feel has a legitimate chance against them. I hope you all appreciate my analysis. Let me know who you think is going to win and why! Any perceived bias, is likely the unfortunate truth.
