If they stay healthy Carmel could compete in D3, but I would be very surprised if they opt up. Beat Pacific Grove, Get better every Game, Make playoffs those are the 3 goals that Carmel strives for every year in that order. As a whole the coaching staff does not care that much about the state bowl games. The only team in league that may stay close is Alisal, just because they are so big upfront and can control the tempo a little bit.
As far the top teams in the area I like Speed's tier system and I would agree. You could make an argument for Alisal and Monterey in the Tier 3 section and I would include Gonzales in the tier 4 section.
Oh and because this is a MA post, props to Palma for pulling off the biggest surprise in the CCS so far. MA is a hard team to figure out. Was this a letdown after the big win vs Mitty?