NCP Top 20 - Week of February 5

[Streak One]

1. Mitty (20-0)
2. St. Mary's-Stockton (20-2)
3. Folsom (20-3)
4. Salesian (18-4)
5. Pinewood (20-1)
6. St. Joseph (20-3)
7. Carondelet (15-7)
8. Miramonte (18-4)
9. Cardinal Newman (20-4)
10. Eastside Prep (16-5)
11. Bear Creek (23-2)
12. McClatchy (18-5)
13. Heritage (16-6)
14. Bishop O'Dowd (11-10)
15. Campolindo (14-8)
16. Castro Valley (20-2)
17. Sacred Heart Cathedral (8-11)
18. California (19-4)
19. Foothill, Sacramento (20-3)
20. Pleasant Valley (15-4)

 

[MikeWojokowski]

PLEASE explain to me how Cal is in there and not Dublin. When Dublin beat Cal?!

 

[observer22]

PLEASE explain to me how Cal is in there and not Dublin. When Dublin beat Cal?!

I was thinking the same thing. And SRV split with Cal and is a game ahead of them in league. Not that Cal doesn’t belong in there, but Dublin and SRV have pretty good resumes as well.

 

[Streak One]

It is a tough call with those three teams. Deciding factor for me:

Cal has a win over Foothill-Sacramento (20-3) and split with Castro Valley (20-2). Lost to Urban (18-4, small school)

SRV beat Piedmont (15-5). Lost to Bear Creek (23-2).

Dublin beat Elk Grove (14-10). Lost to Carondelet (14-7, Top 10 ranked) and Pleasant Valley (15-4, top team in Northern Section)

Dublin beat Cal. Cal split with SRV. SRV beat Dublin

So if you consider the league results a wash when looking at all three teams, Cal has a better resume in non-league action

 

[MikeWojokowski]

I hear and understand ALL of that BUT, Dublin BEAT Cal and has a better record. It's just mind boggling to me that's all. I could see SRV up there I would understand that.

 

[Streak One]

Probably because Dublin didn't play the same type of non-league as Cal.

Also, SRV is a half game worse than Dublin and beat them. Once the total games line up, should SRV just move ahead of Dublin because of same record and they beat them?

 

[MikeWojokowski]

I think it would be SRV, Dublin then Cal.

 

[SouthBayHoopFan]

I think it would be SRV, Dublin then Cal.

You could always be like paytc and create your own rankings.

 

[ClayK]

Of the three, SRV has played the toughest schedule, but really, there's no perfect way to sort that trio out at this point. It will work itself out on the court, I think ...

 

[CityBoy415]

How is Bear Creek ranked 11th with the schedule they have? Is this ranking based on wins and losses taking no consideration into strength of schedule? They haven't beat any tough teams at all and only played 2 or 3 teams that are relevant

 

[observer22]

Of the three, SRV has played the toughest schedule, but really, there's no perfect way to sort that trio out at this point. It will work itself out on the court, I think ...

I believe in the EBAL playoffs (if nothing changes), Cal (as the 2nd place team in the Mountain division) will face Dublin (1st in Valley division), with the winner to face most likely SRV for the EBAL championship. Whoever comes out of that unscathed should be the higher seed heading into NCS, and most likely the NCP Top 20 as well.

 

[Norm75]

SRV does have win over 18-3 Newark Memorial.

 

[CoachDViks]

Bear Creek beat SRV by 20+ and Campolindo by 30

 

[CityBoy415]

Bear Creek beat SRV by 20+ and Campolindo by 30

Lol come on coach you can do better than that! Neither of those teams have played anybody either. Here's a more realistic top 20 with 15 - 17 interchangeable. Everybody in the top 12 is battle tested with great coaching.

1. Mitty (20-0)
2. St. Mary's-Stockton (20-2)
3. Folsom (20-3)
4. Salesian (18-4)
5. Pinewood (20-1)
6. St. Joseph (20-3)
7. Carondelet (15-7)
8. Miramonte (18-4)
9. Cardinal Newman (20-4)
10. Eastside Prep (16-5)
11. Bishop O'Dowd (11-10)
12. Sacred Heart Cathedral (8-11)
13. McClatchy (18-5)
14. Heritage (16-6)
15. Bear Creek (23-2)
16. Campolindo (14-8)
17. Castro Valley (20-2)
18. California (19-4)
19. Foothill, Sacramento (20-3)
20. Pleasant Valley (15-4)

 

[CoachDViks]

lol hey man I'm not here to argue as I've seen u go back n forth a few times with people. just say u want to see SHCP higher because thats all you really did lol. I don't think Campolindo should be on this list at all honestly but u have them on there. so for that reason u validate that B. Creek is on there. Oh and u got foothill on there have you even seen them play? So many people ONLY know the bay area schools and when it comes to the stockton/sjs schools only go off who the bloggers are talking about lol.

I do agree though your top #12 are great programs and most have top tier coaches.

 

[ClayK]

So my question about SHC is this: What quality team have they beaten aside from WCAL schools? They've played a lot of very good teams, granted, but they've lost to them all.

Now we played SHC and that's a good team, no question, but for me, the rankings are based on results, not perception, and SHC's best win, as far as I can see, is Sacramento ... or maybe Valley Christian or Presentation.

Bear Creek's two losses are to 23-4 Fairfax and Clovis West, and as of right now, that win over San Ramon looks better than any of SHC's wins.

McClatchy also has some good wins over ranked teams Whitney and Pleasant Valley, plus a win over Campo when Ashley Thoms was healthy, and they also beat Sierra Canyon, one of SoCal's best. And they beat Sacramento by 22 and SHC beat Sacramento by one.

 

[missing.link]

So my question about SHC is this: What quality team have they beaten aside from WCAL schools? They've played a lot of very good teams, granted, but they've lost to them all.

Now we played SHC and that's a good team, no question, but for me, the rankings are based on results, not perception, and SHC's best win, as far as I can see, is Sacramento ... or maybe Valley Christian or Presentation.

Bear Creek's two losses are to 23-4 Fairfax and Clovis West, and as of right now, that win over San Ramon looks better than any of SHC's wins.

McClatchy also has some good wins over ranked teams Whitney and Pleasant Valley, plus a win over Campo when Ashley Thoms was healthy, and they also beat Sierra Canyon, one of SoCal's best. And they beat Sacramento by 22 and SHC beat Sacramento by one.

When healthy McClatchy is the third open team from the sjs.

 

[ClayK]

It will be very interesting to see if the CIF committee opts to take the loser of McClatchy-Folsom (assuming that's the SJS D1 semifinal matchup) ahead of an NCS division champ such as St. Joseph Notre Dame, Miramonte or Bishop O'Dowd.

 

[missing.link]

It will be very interesting to see if the CIF committee opts to take the loser of McClatchy-Folsom (assuming that's the SJS D1 semifinal matchup) ahead of an NCS division champ such as St. Joseph Notre Dame, Miramonte or Bishop O'Dowd.

Mitty,Sms.Pinewood,Clet,Salesien,Folsom,Miramonte,McClatchy. St Joes could sneak in and I think Cn would have to upset Salesien to get in , same with O'Dowd upsetting MM.

 

[CityBoy415]

lol hey man I'm not here to argue as I've seen u go back n forth a few times with people. just say u want to see SHCP higher because thats all you really did lol. I don't think Campolindo should be on this list at all honestly but u have them on there. so for that reason u validate that B. Creek is on there. Oh and u got foothill on there have you even seen them play? So many people ONLY know the bay area schools and when it comes to the stockton/sjs schools only go off who the bloggers are talking about lol.

I do agree though your top #12 are great programs and most have top tier coaches.

No argument here just an opinion. I'm not sure what's going on with Campo but when I seen them play there were about where I have them. That was early in the season so I'm not sure if injuries play a part in their recent struggles. I can say I've seen every team on this list play. Caught Foothill in the WCJ. I think O'Dowd should be moved up and McClatchy (Losses to Edison and Heritage) moved down. IMO 15-20 can be replaceable on a week to week basis and often are. I do think Presentation should have been on this list but somewhere towards the bottom. Not sure if you've seen everyone play but what would your list look like?

 

[Norcal_Fan]

I hear and understand ALL of that BUT, Dublin BEAT Cal and has a better record. It's just mind boggling to me that's all. I could see SRV up there I would understand that.

Dublin's preseason schedule of playing nobody is going to come back and haunt them when the NCS meetings/seedings happen. The virtually played NOBODY and have only 3 quality games in their non-conference schedule: Aptos, Elk Grove (not great but not terrible either), and Pleasant Valley-That's it. Cal and San Ramon both have had a much harder road to where they are at now.

Also, Cal has a head to head loss to Dublin, but split with SRV who beat dublin which kinda negates the head to head loss. Head to head mean's a lot, but not as big of a factor when you have a lot of common opponents, as these three teams have. I think NCP got it right..dublin is on the bubble but not on this list, yet.

 

[CityBoy415]

So my question about SHC is this: What quality team have they beaten aside from WCAL schools? They've played a lot of very good teams, granted, but they've lost to them all.

Now we played SHC and that's a good team, no question, but for me, the rankings are based on results, not perception, and SHC's best win, as far as I can see, is Sacramento ... or maybe Valley Christian or Presentation.

Bear Creek's two losses are to 23-4 Fairfax and Clovis West, and as of right now, that win over San Ramon looks better than any of SHC's wins.

McClatchy also has some good wins over ranked teams Whitney and Pleasant Valley, plus a win over Campo when Ashley Thoms was healthy, and they also beat Sierra Canyon, one of SoCal's best. And they beat Sacramento by 22 and SHC beat Sacramento by one.

You stand correct. A lot of SHC's wins have come in league (One of the toughest leagues around). Quality wins in league include wins against a good SI team who beat BOD, and Pleasant Valley, and a win against Presentation which is Max preps #15th ranked team in the state. Out of league wins against Sacramento (final score does not dictate the game), Edison by 35 (who beat McClatchy by 11)

Who has San Ramon beat that makes that win for Bear Creek a quality win?

My question is are we looking at these rankings and ranking teams from the entire season or from at this point in the season. A lot of teams that played well early fall off and teams that didn't play well early play well late which is the case I think for SHC and BOD.

 

[SouthBayHoopFan]

My question is are we looking at these rankings and ranking teams from the entire season or from at this point in the season. A lot of teams that played well early fall off and teams that didn't play well early play well late which is the case I think for SHC and BOD.

Playing a tough schedule almost always helps in the postseason. SHC and BOD will be better prepared than most other teams. But taking 11 (soon to be 12) losses as SHC has done, even against quality opponents, is not the path for getting love from those who compile rankings or seed teams in post-season brackets. So if you're going going to play a schedule that best prepares your team for the playoffs, you've got to ignore the mid-saeson rankings. The last laugh is usually the best.

 

[cptmycpa]

No argument here just an opinion. I'm not sure what's going on with Campo but when I seen them play there were about where I have them. That was early in the season so I'm not sure if injuries play a part in their recent struggles. I can say I've seen every team on this list play. Caught Foothill in the WCJ. I think O'Dowd should be moved up and McClatchy (Losses to Edison and Heritage) moved down. IMO 15-20 can be replaceable on a week to week basis and often are. I do think Presentation should have been on this list but somewhere towards the bottom. Not sure if you've seen everyone play but what would your list look like?

Actually McClatchy beat Heritage at Heritage's gym in a tournament, but has a stinker loss to Edison while McClatchy's tallest starter was out injured from that Edison game. Still, I agree that O'Dowd should be moved up for that eight spot.

 

[CoachDViks]

edison only has losses from BOD, SHCP, Bear Creek (2) and 2 top out of area teams. Beat Mcclatchy, Brookside, St. Francis and a Decent Sequoia team.

 

[ClayK]

As SI beat SHC as well, I don't know if that counts -- and SRV split with Cal High, and beat Dublin. It could be argued that all three of those teams aren't really that good, but almost the same case could be made for the WCAL schools.

I'm not making that claim, to be clear, but even though SI has a nice win over O'Dowd, aside from Mitty, what other quality out-of-league win does the WCAL have? And let's not forget that SI lost to Menlo and Foothill of Pleasanton, a team that Cal, SRV and Dublin have handled easily.

 

[CityBoy415]

As SI beat SHC as well, I don't know if that counts -- and SRV split with Cal High, and beat Dublin. It could be argued that all three of those teams aren't really that good, but almost the same case could be made for the WCAL schools.

I'm not making that claim, to be clear, but even though SI has a nice win over O'Dowd, aside from Mitty, what other quality out-of-league win does the WCAL have? And let's not forget that SI lost to Menlo and Foothill of Pleasanton, a team that Cal, SRV and Dublin have handled easily.

Correct SI did beat SHC a month ago in a rivalry game by 1. Which is why I ask are we ranking teams by the year or does what a team did as of late matter. Since the rankings are week to week I would like to think that SHC beating SI by 23 is a little more relevant of a win.

Every team in the WCAL is a quality team and has a quality coach. If there’s a better league around this year in particular let me know I’d love to catch some good games. Menlo is a great program and well coached so no surprise there. I haven’t seen Foothill or Pleasanton to give any feed back there. Have you? I have seen Bear Creek and unless foul trouble or injuries occur I don’t think they are a better team than BOD or SHC. Again, just my opinion from seeing those teams play.

Looking at the schedule of a lot of these teams in the top 20, if BOD and SHC played those schedules we would be looking at both programs with 20 win seasons as well. My hat goes off to these coaches for challenging their players by playing tough schedules.

 

[ClayK]

Cal High just beat Foothill 77-42, and Foothill is 8-15. I saw them only briefly, but their record speaks for itself.

I agree the WCAL is the best league, but the EBAL, at the top, isn't that far behind. Teams like Foothill -- which beat a team that beat SHC -- and Livermore drag the EBAL down, but I think that Cal, SRV, Dublin and even Amador are solid teams that would do well against WCAL opposition.

I also agree that if BOD and SHC played those same schedules, they would have great records, and it may well be that playing that tough schedule will pay off in postseason. (I have yet to be convinced, however, that a game in early December makes you better in March ...)

Then again, if I'm trying to build a program and give my girls confidence, maybe I don't have 10 or 11 losses at this point. The history of success for BOD and SHC gives those coaches a little more leeway when it comes to maintaining confidence, as the players have a better grasp of how good they are regardless of the record.

As for Bear Creek vs. BOD/SHC, that's what NorCals are all about ... hopefully we'll find out on the court.

 

[CityBoy415]

Cal High just beat Foothill 77-42, and Foothill is 8-15. I saw them only briefly, but their record speaks for itself.

I agree the WCAL is the best league, but the EBAL, at the top, isn't that far behind. Teams like Foothill -- which beat a team that beat SHC -- and Livermore drag the EBAL down, but I think that Cal, SRV, Dublin and even Amador are solid teams that would do well against WCAL opposition.

I also agree that if BOD and SHC played those same schedules, they would have great records, and it may well be that playing that tough schedule will pay off in postseason. (I have yet to be convinced, however, that a game in early December makes you better in March ...)

Then again, if I'm trying to build a program and give my girls confidence, maybe I don't have 10 or 11 losses at this point. The history of success for BOD and SHC gives those coaches a little more leeway when it comes to maintaining confidence, as the players have a better grasp of how good they are regardless of the record.

As for Bear Creek vs. BOD/SHC, that's what NorCals are all about ... hopefully we'll find out on the court.

Right, Foothill beat SI in the pre-season by 1. Which is why I ask are we ranking teams by what they did in the pre-season or how they are playing now. SHC has a loss by 1 to SI and a 23pt win as of last week. So I don't think Foothill beating SI really matters at this point in the season but I also don't know the criteria for rankings.

The EBAL has 3 teams that are decent high school teams. However, they don't play anybody in the pre-season so we will never know. When they do you can see the difference. Dublin's loss to Carondelet by 30 is one example. Would you happen to know the final score of the Carondelet SRV game? I haven't seen it posted yet but unless injury played a factor I don't think that one will be with in 10 either.

The WCAL is on another level. Although the league is not as strong this year as because most teams are young besides Mitty or graduated their best players last year. Typically, Mitty and SHC finish 1st or second but the WCAL historically has always had multiple teams run deep in Nor Cal Playoffs. Perfect example is the CCS Open having 4 teams from the WCAL just about every year.

The Nor-Cal playoffs this year will be interesting. There's a lot of parity this year so there's no clear cut favorite especially in the lower divisions. A lot of it will come down to match ups and what teams playing well and injury free late in the season.

 

[Norcal_Fan]

Right, Foothill beat SI in the pre-season by 1. Which is why I ask are we ranking teams by what they did in the pre-season or how they are playing now. SHC has a loss by 1 to SI and a 23pt win as of last week. So I don't think Foothill beating SI really matters at this point in the season but I also don't know the criteria for rankings.

The EBAL has 3 teams that are decent high school teams. However, they don't play anybody in the pre-season so we will never know. When they do you can see the difference. Dublin's loss to Carondelet by 30 is one example. Would you happen to know the final score of the Carondelet SRV game? I haven't seen it posted yet but unless injury played a factor I don't think that one will be with in 10 either.

The WCAL is on another level. Although the league is not as strong this year as because most teams are young besides Mitty or graduated their best players last year. Typically, Mitty and SHC finish 1st or second but the WCAL historically has always had multiple teams run deep in Nor Cal Playoffs. Perfect example is the CCS Open having 4 teams from the WCAL just about every year.

The Nor-Cal playoffs this year will be interesting. There's a lot of parity this year so there's no clear cut favorite especially in the lower divisions. A lot of it will come down to match ups and what teams playing well and injury free late in the season.

I don't agree that the WCAL is on another level. Mitty is obviously the best team in the nation right now, but SHC, SI, and VC are just average teams. SI lost to a poor Foothill (pleasanton) team, SHC lost to a sub-par (down from many years) ESP team. The reason it matters is for Norcal seeding meetings. Foothill, who may not even qualify for playoffs beat SI and SI split with SHC. That's a bad loss and a bad chain for common opponents.

As for EBAL, C-Let isn't Mitty but probably the 3-4 best team in Norcal and they've run through everyone in EBAL. Cal and SRV are good teams. Are they open? not even close but they're solid D1 programs. Dublin is good, but behind both teams in SOS and quality wins.

 

[ClayK]

There are always questions about criteria, for rankings or seedings.

Is the body of work? Is it who's better right now? Does head-to-head matter? Do common opponents matter?

In general, committees like to use as much objective data as possible because it makes it easier to work through the process. Saying "I think San Ramon is playing better right now so we should ignore that early season loss" is pretty chancy -- and it's a slippery slope. Long-time women's basketball writer Joe Smith called it "result nullification." If the results didn't agree with your conceptions or preconceptions, you simply ignored them.

So sure, you can discount the loss to Foothill, and say that a 23-point win was more decisive. But unless you were at both games, and unless you know the internal situation of both teams (injuries, illnesses, boyfriends, officials), it's really hard to sort things out. I would agree that a 23-point win tells me more than a one-point win, but on the other hand, a win is a win.

And since SRV lost to Carondelet by 11 and Carondelet lost to SMS by 10, that means San Ramon is only 21 points worse than the No. 6 team in the country. Mitty beat SHC by 46.

But I do think the WCAL is a better league than the EBAL, though I am not convinced it is decisively better, and I am not convinced that Valley Christian, St. Francis and SI are significantly better than Dublin, Cal and SRV.