NCS Playoffs Prediction D1

[ncs_hewson]

Here are eligible teams with overall and league records, It will be interesting how many qualify and be left out. Here is how I see it as of today.
1-DLS 20-3, 10-0
2-Heritage 19-3. 5-1
3-Dublin 18-4, 8-2
4-Logan 18-4, 9-1
5-Freedom 16-5, 4-2
6-CVC 15-6, 6-0
7-Antioch 15-7, 5-1
8-Mt Eden 15-7 3-4
9-SL 14-8 4-2
10-Berkeley 12-10 3-3
11-AV 13-10, 6-4
12-Deer 15-7 2-4
13-Liberty 15-7 2-4
Top 13 should have already punched their ticket.

14-Foothill 13-10 5-5 (favorable remaining schedule, should be in)
15-Castro 12-10 4-4 (2 wins gets them in)
16-Dougherty 12-11 6-4 (DLS and Dublin still awaits, but 13-13, 7-6 might be enough)

On the outside looking in, it is possible they run the table and still be left out, but can move in with strong finishes
NM 10-12, 7-3 (would probably need to beat one of MC or JL)
SRV 10-13, 5-5 (would probably need to run the table)
EC 10-14, 2-4 (needs to run the table)
CP 13-9, 2-4 (probably needs to win 2)
Arroyo 11-11, 2-4 (probably needs to win 3)
MV 10-13, 3-7 (needs to run the table, final game vs SRV could be huge)
CAL 10-13, 4-6 (needs to run the table, DLS included, unlikely)
Granada 10-13, 3-7 (needs to run the table, Dublin included, unlikely)

 

[SteveS63]

I would've disagreed on DLS as No. 1 a few weeks ago, but I'm coming around. Lots of coaching upheaval, but the program continues to emphasize and execute tight defense, precision passing and back cuts. I caught the Dublin game last week. DLS defense smothered Falls in the first half. Offensively, the were patient, relentless and as always disciplined. If they can keep it up, will be tough to catch down the stretch.

 

[observer22]

Here are eligible teams with overall and league records, It will be interesting how many qualify and be left out. Here is how I see it as of today.
1-DLS 20-3, 8-2
2-Heritage 19-3. 5-1
3-Dublin 18-4, 9-1
4-Logan 18-4, 9-1
5-Freedom 16-5, 4-2

Nice work Hewson. Good job doing that legwork. Hard to argue with most of that.

Although DLS is 10-0 in league rather than 8-2, and Dublin is 8-2 with their loss to Foothill this week. You may have CVC rated a bit high, with their playing in such a weak second tier league and losses to CP, Pitt and CV.

 

[ncs_hewson]

observer good catch on the typo

 

[ncs_hewson]

I agree that the CVC ranking is too high for what they are, but I am just predicting that winning a league will inflate their seeding

 

[MoneyTeam0115]

Freedom loses to Edison. Probably ends their chance of a top 4 seed

 

[eastcounty]

It will be interesting what seeding committee looks at. First five will be easy. Next 11 will matter on what they are looking at.

Antioch has some great wins as of late with some bad losses early.

Deer Valley has good wins early but have faded.
I agree CVC is too high but 3 of their losses were either pre football players or in the first week they were back. The losses were to Pitt, College Park and Deer Valley.

Dougherty Valley if they get in will not be an easy first round game because they are playing well and coached well.

1 DLS
2 Dublin
3 James Loga
4 Heritage
5 Freedom
6 Antioch
7 CVC
8 SAN Leandr
9 Deer Valley
10 Mt Eden
11 Berkeley
12Av
13 liberty
14 Castro v
15 Dv
16 Foothill

 

[togos]

can anyone beat Dela?

 

[ncs_hewson]

Dublin will have to play better than in the first matchup, I think they can

 

[observer22]

Especially if they have a healthy Beasley back, being that he was their leading scorer prior to his injury. It may help that they have already faced them, as they were very tentative in that first meeting in the first half, before opening up things in the second half. But then it will also help DLS that they have seen everyone but Beasley.

Should be interesting. They will most likely meet again in the EBAL finals, prior to a potential 3rd meeting at NCS, and maybe even a 4th in the Open Division if both teams take care of business.

 

[MoneyTeam0115]

I think Heritage and Logan definitely have a chance to beat De La Salle. I think San Leandro is going to upset somebody as well due to matchup issues. They are very big in every position

 

[bones40]

moneyteam I agree with you on san leandro they are a dangerous team big
and thick at alot of positions they could upset a team or two during the playoffs
dublin with beasley back will make a big difference for them he can really stroke
It.

 

[Straight8]

Until the final NCS game at St. Mary's College DeLaSalle will not lose at Home in Concord. There is no team in the entire NCS that plays a better brand of defense they are committed.

 

[bones40]

EBAL championship game will held at dublin high. Don't know how fair that
is since dela won the first meeting but it is more equipped to handle a larger
Crowd and nicer.

 

[Straight8]

The EBAL Championship game will expel a lot of emotions for both teams before the start of the NCS playoffs. The revenge factor for Dublin could have them primed for a second year in a row first round early exit [they were upset round 1 2016].

 

[noknight]

Here's an article that predicts NCS Divisions I-IV and their seedings:

http://prep2prep.com/feature.aspx?ArticleID=18185

Same top 4 in D-I as listed here, but not in the same order. I'll be stunned if their D-II seedings play out that way (BOD and Moreau as the top 2 seeds)...