If two teams have the same number of points the tiebreaker is head to head competition and then I believe record against common opponents. The final tie breaker is whoever has the higher Calprep ranking. Menlo Is currently ranked #11 in the section and Riordan is ranked #13 so Menlo wins the tiebreaker.
Official CCS Final Play-off Seeding - released by CCS
- Thread starter PALbooster
- Start date
Paperwork is still going through, but I've been told by Cupertino head coach Chris Oswald that his team's previously scheduled October 2 game vs. El Camino will go as a forfeit win for the Pioneers.
With all the games cancelled this year involving CCS teams (over a dozen) it will be interesting to see how many teams will apply to gain forfeit victories from another team being unable to play rather than have them go as no contest/cancelled games. In many cases this would impact seedings and in one or two cases might influence who makes the play-offs and who does not.
I don't think this will impact Cupertino's chances of making the play-offs. If they lose to Los Altos in week 10 they will likely not get an automatic spot (unless Fremont upsets Gunn tonight). I f they beat Los Altos they will be the top team int eh three team tie-breaker and get in. By having the contest with El Camino be declared a victory I have it adding 0.5 points to their total points if they lose to Los Altos and 0.27 points if they beat Los Altos. This likely won't be enough for them if they are trying to get in as an at-large team and might nominally change their seeding if they do get in the field.
After this weekends results here is the projected CCS Play-off Field - see the next post for all the scenarios based on Week 10 results.
D1 - No surprises on the field but some small movements in Calprep points moved the seeding.
1. St. Francis 81 (1)
2 .Bellarmine 74 (6)
3. Menlo-Atherton 73.8 (2)
4. Serra 73.2 (3)
5. Los Gatos 71.5 (5)
6. Salinas 70.5 (4)
7. Valley Christian 68 (7)
8. San Benito 63.2 (8)
D 2 - SI moved back into the field with narrow win over Riordan and bumped Riordan out. Little movement in this bracket this week.
1 .Aptos 63.1 (1)
2. Palma 61 (2)
3. Wilcox 61 (3)
4. Saint Ignatius 58 (replaced Riordan who was #5 in D2)
5. Menlo 57.5 (4)
6. Half Moon Bay 56.3 (6)
7. Santa Cruz 55.1 (8)
8. Burlingame 53 (7)
D3- Scotts Valley is elevated to the #8 seed in D3, Homestead dropped to D4. Not much other movement in D3 seeds.
1. Leland 52.5 (1)
2. Live Oak 51.4 (2)
3. Sacred Heart Cathedral 48 (4)
4. Christopher 47.5 (3)
5. Palo Alto 45 (5)
6. Leigh 42 (7)
7. Mountain View 41.8 (8)
8. Scotts Valley 41 (#2 in D4)
D4 Scotts Valley moved to D3 and Homestead dropped to D4. Terra Nova lose to Kings Academy dropped their seed. Alisal loss to Seaside dropped their seed. Santa Teresa dropped in Calprep ranking moved their seed lower.
1. Sacred Heart Prep 37 (5)
2. Homestead 37 (6 in D3)
3. Hillsdale 37 (6)
4. Santa Teresa 36.5 (1)
5. Pioneer 35.5 (7)
6. Terra Nova 33.5 (3)
7. Alisal 32.4 (4)
8. Lincoln 30.5 (8)
D5 - Soquel's win over North Salinas had both teams change seeds. Other changes were driven by changes in Calpreps ranks.
1. San Mateo 29.6 (1)
2. Gunn 27.8 (5)
3. Soquel 27.5 (6)
4. King City 27.2 (2)
5. Cupertino 25.6 (3)
6. North Salinas 24.4 (4)
7. St. Francis-Watsonville 22 (7)
8. Hill 19.2 (8)
D1 - No surprises on the field but some small movements in Calprep points moved the seeding.
1. St. Francis 81 (1)
2 .Bellarmine 74 (6)
3. Menlo-Atherton 73.8 (2)
4. Serra 73.2 (3)
5. Los Gatos 71.5 (5)
6. Salinas 70.5 (4)
7. Valley Christian 68 (7)
8. San Benito 63.2 (8)
D 2 - SI moved back into the field with narrow win over Riordan and bumped Riordan out. Little movement in this bracket this week.
1 .Aptos 63.1 (1)
2. Palma 61 (2)
3. Wilcox 61 (3)
4. Saint Ignatius 58 (replaced Riordan who was #5 in D2)
5. Menlo 57.5 (4)
6. Half Moon Bay 56.3 (6)
7. Santa Cruz 55.1 (8)
8. Burlingame 53 (7)
D3- Scotts Valley is elevated to the #8 seed in D3, Homestead dropped to D4. Not much other movement in D3 seeds.
1. Leland 52.5 (1)
2. Live Oak 51.4 (2)
3. Sacred Heart Cathedral 48 (4)
4. Christopher 47.5 (3)
5. Palo Alto 45 (5)
6. Leigh 42 (7)
7. Mountain View 41.8 (8)
8. Scotts Valley 41 (#2 in D4)
D4 Scotts Valley moved to D3 and Homestead dropped to D4. Terra Nova lose to Kings Academy dropped their seed. Alisal loss to Seaside dropped their seed. Santa Teresa dropped in Calprep ranking moved their seed lower.
1. Sacred Heart Prep 37 (5)
2. Homestead 37 (6 in D3)
3. Hillsdale 37 (6)
4. Santa Teresa 36.5 (1)
5. Pioneer 35.5 (7)
6. Terra Nova 33.5 (3)
7. Alisal 32.4 (4)
8. Lincoln 30.5 (8)
D5 - Soquel's win over North Salinas had both teams change seeds. Other changes were driven by changes in Calpreps ranks.
1. San Mateo 29.6 (1)
2. Gunn 27.8 (5)
3. Soquel 27.5 (6)
4. King City 27.2 (2)
5. Cupertino 25.6 (3)
6. North Salinas 24.4 (4)
7. St. Francis-Watsonville 22 (7)
8. Hill 19.2 (8)
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A large number of play-off spots are still on the line heading into the last week of the season.
WCAL - The league's top two teams St. Francis and Serra face-off to determine who will win the regular season championship and finish the regular season undefeated. Both of these teams will get automatic berths. The most likely scenario for week 10 has Bellarmine beating SI and Valley Christian beating Riordan to finish tied for 3rd and get the last two automatic spots and having Sacred Heart Cathedral being Mitty to finish 5th and SI and Riordan tied for 6th with SI winning the head to head tie breaker based on their 24-21 win over Riordan this week. It is possible for there to be a 5 way tie for 3rd If Riordan, SI and SHC win in week 10. Under all scenarios Bellarmine and Valley Christian make the play-offs and there is no way for Mitty to get in. The three teams competing for the last two spots are SI, Riordan and SHC. A look at how it plays out for each of them.
SI - win and they are in. If they lose they get in with either a three way tie for 5th with SHC and Riordan or a two way tie for 6th with Riordan. SI is out if they lose and Both Riordan and SHC win or if Riordan wins and SHC losses and they end up in a two way for 6th with SHC.
Riordan - Win and they are in. If they lose they are in with an SHC loss and a SI win. Riordan losses a two way tiebreaker with SI and losses a three way tiebreaker with SHC as SHC win over Bellarmine elevates them in the three way tiebreaker and SI is ahead of Riordan on CCS points and head to head.
If SHC wins they are in if either Riordan or SI lose. If they both win SHC losses a 5 way tiebreaker (everyone is 2-2 head to head) as they have the lowest CCS point total. If SHC losses they win a three way tiebreaker with SI and Riordan and a two way tiebreaker with SI, but lose a two way tiebreaker with Riordan.
Deanza - Much simpler. Los Gatos, Wilcox and Palo Alto have clinched automatic spots. Homestead gets the fourth spot if they beat last place Santa Clara this week. If Homestead losses Mountain View likely will get the final spot (unless Milpitas upsets Los Gatos). Mountain View will get an at-large spot if Homestead wins. Milpitas will finish 6th if they lose to Los Gatos and won't have enough points for an at-larger bid. Homestead will be on the bubble for an at-large bid if they lose depending on where they finish in the CCS rankings.
PAL- Bay - Also straight forward. Menlo-Atherton, Half Moon Bay, Burlingame and Sacred Heart Prep have clinched the automatic spots. Even after being upset by Kings Academy Terra Nova is likely to get an at-large berth. Kings Academy will need to upset Menlo-Atherton in week 10 to have a chance at an at-large spot.
Mount Hamilton - Leland, Live Oak and Lincoln have clinched automatic berths. Leland wins the league outright with a win over Lincoln. A Lincoln win likely creates a two way tie with Live Oak for the championship. Santa Teresa gets the last automatic spot with a win over last place Oak Grove or with a Piedmont Hills lose to heavily favored Live Oak. The fifth and sixth place teams in the Mt. Hamilton (Overfelt and Piedmont Hills) don't have enough points to get an at-large berth.
Gabilan - The four automatic spots go to Salinas, San Benito, Aptos and Palma. If Salinas wins their week 10 game against Palma they are sole league champion. A Salinas loss will likely create Tri-champions with Salinas, San Benito and Aptos. Christopher has locked up an at-large berth. The sixth place team in the Gabilan will get an at-large berth as well and will likely be the winner of this weeks game between Alisal and Alvarez. Seaside can get in if they upset San Benito and Alisal beats Alvarez.
Mission - Soquel and Santa Cruz square off for the league championship and both are in the Play-offs. The third spot will come from a play-in game Thursday night between Gilroy (who cancelled due to Covid reasons against Santa Cruz this week) and North Salinas. The winner will get the third spot, the loser will hand in their pads as they won't have enough points for an at-large spot.
PAL- Ocean - Week 10 features a play-in game between rivals Hillsdale and Aragon. The winner gets the league's second automatic spot behind Menlo which finished league play at 5-0 and won the league championship. The loser will be on the bubble to get in as an at-large. Both would need Menlo to beat Sacred Heart Prep and maintain the point from having Menlo being in the top 150 in the state.
El Camino - If Gunn beats last place Monta Vista they are in. The winner of the Cupertino and Los Altos game in week 10 will be in the play-offs as well. The loser likely won't make it as a wild card. A Los Altos win will have them as sole league champions with Gunn alone in second. a Cupertino win leaves a three way tie between Cupertino, Los Altos and Gunn with Cupertino having the most CCS points, followed by Gunn and then Los Altos. The top two teams get automatic berths.
Santa Teresa - Pioneer has clinched a play-off spot and is sole league champion with a win over last place Willow Glen. Branham is at Leigh for week 10. A Branham win and a Sobrato loss to Independence would would give Branham the second spot. If Leigh wins they get the second play-off spot. If Leigh losses and Sobrato wins, Leigh would win the three team tiebreaker with Sobrato and Branham. Leigh could also get in as an ant-large team with a loss. Branham and Sobrato will not have enough poitns for an at-large bid.
Cyprus - Scotts Valley has clinched the league's sole play-off spot. I have King City as the last team in as an at-large. They need to beat Pacific Grove to keep this spot.
PAL-Lake - San Mateo is the league's only play-off qualifier. They will be an underdog as they go into their rivalry game with Burlingame in the Little Big Game this weekend and try to close out their season undefeated.
West Valley - Hill has clinched the league's play-off spot. They are sole league champion with a win over last place James Lick this weekend.
Santa Lucia - St. Francis of Watsonville wrapped up this league a month ago and closes out their seasons against Pajaro Valley in week 10.
At Large Selections - After all the 33 league automatic berths are allocated the remaining teams are in one pool. The top ten 10 teams by CCS points are taken provided that there can be no more than six play-off teams per league and then they are ranked by their Calprep ranking with the top ranking team getting 10 points added to their CCS point total, the next team gets 9 points and the lowest ranked team adds one point: The projected cut-off to get into the at-large pool is 21 points. Current At-Large Projections
1. Saint Ignatius - 30 + 10 =40
2. Sacred Heart Cathedral 26 + 9 = 35
3. Christopher 26.5 + 8 =34.5
4. Mountain View 23.8 + 7 =30.8
5. Terra Nova 21.5 + 6 = 27.5
6. Alisal 22.4 +5 = 27.4
7. King City 23.2 + 2 = 25.2
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8. Aragon 21 +4 = 25.0
9. Milpitas 21 +3 =24
10. Los Altos 21.3+1 = 22.3
Undefeated - St. Francis, Serra, Los Gatos, Salinas, Menlo, Santa Cruz and San Mateo enter the final week of the regular season undefeated. St. Francis and Serra play head to head. Los Gatos will be a heavy favorite against Milpitas, Salinas (against Palma), Menlo (against Sacred Heart Prep) and Santa Cruz (against Soquel) will all be double digit favorites in their rivalry game. San Mateo will be a heavy underdog to Burlingame in their rivalry game.
WCAL - The league's top two teams St. Francis and Serra face-off to determine who will win the regular season championship and finish the regular season undefeated. Both of these teams will get automatic berths. The most likely scenario for week 10 has Bellarmine beating SI and Valley Christian beating Riordan to finish tied for 3rd and get the last two automatic spots and having Sacred Heart Cathedral being Mitty to finish 5th and SI and Riordan tied for 6th with SI winning the head to head tie breaker based on their 24-21 win over Riordan this week. It is possible for there to be a 5 way tie for 3rd If Riordan, SI and SHC win in week 10. Under all scenarios Bellarmine and Valley Christian make the play-offs and there is no way for Mitty to get in. The three teams competing for the last two spots are SI, Riordan and SHC. A look at how it plays out for each of them.
SI - win and they are in. If they lose they get in with either a three way tie for 5th with SHC and Riordan or a two way tie for 6th with Riordan. SI is out if they lose and Both Riordan and SHC win or if Riordan wins and SHC losses and they end up in a two way for 6th with SHC.
Riordan - Win and they are in. If they lose they are in with an SHC loss and a SI win. Riordan losses a two way tiebreaker with SI and losses a three way tiebreaker with SHC as SHC win over Bellarmine elevates them in the three way tiebreaker and SI is ahead of Riordan on CCS points and head to head.
If SHC wins they are in if either Riordan or SI lose. If they both win SHC losses a 5 way tiebreaker (everyone is 2-2 head to head) as they have the lowest CCS point total. If SHC losses they win a three way tiebreaker with SI and Riordan and a two way tiebreaker with SI, but lose a two way tiebreaker with Riordan.
Deanza - Much simpler. Los Gatos, Wilcox and Palo Alto have clinched automatic spots. Homestead gets the fourth spot if they beat last place Santa Clara this week. If Homestead losses Mountain View likely will get the final spot (unless Milpitas upsets Los Gatos). Mountain View will get an at-large spot if Homestead wins. Milpitas will finish 6th if they lose to Los Gatos and won't have enough points for an at-larger bid. Homestead will be on the bubble for an at-large bid if they lose depending on where they finish in the CCS rankings.
PAL- Bay - Also straight forward. Menlo-Atherton, Half Moon Bay, Burlingame and Sacred Heart Prep have clinched the automatic spots. Even after being upset by Kings Academy Terra Nova is likely to get an at-large berth. Kings Academy will need to upset Menlo-Atherton in week 10 to have a chance at an at-large spot.
Mount Hamilton - Leland, Live Oak and Lincoln have clinched automatic berths. Leland wins the league outright with a win over Lincoln. A Lincoln win likely creates a two way tie with Live Oak for the championship. Santa Teresa gets the last automatic spot with a win over last place Oak Grove or with a Piedmont Hills lose to heavily favored Live Oak. The fifth and sixth place teams in the Mt. Hamilton (Overfelt and Piedmont Hills) don't have enough points to get an at-large berth.
Gabilan - The four automatic spots go to Salinas, San Benito, Aptos and Palma. If Salinas wins their week 10 game against Palma they are sole league champion. A Salinas loss will likely create Tri-champions with Salinas, San Benito and Aptos. Christopher has locked up an at-large berth. The sixth place team in the Gabilan will get an at-large berth as well and will likely be the winner of this weeks game between Alisal and Alvarez. Seaside can get in if they upset San Benito and Alisal beats Alvarez.
Mission - Soquel and Santa Cruz square off for the league championship and both are in the Play-offs. The third spot will come from a play-in game Thursday night between Gilroy (who cancelled due to Covid reasons against Santa Cruz this week) and North Salinas. The winner will get the third spot, the loser will hand in their pads as they won't have enough points for an at-large spot.
PAL- Ocean - Week 10 features a play-in game between rivals Hillsdale and Aragon. The winner gets the league's second automatic spot behind Menlo which finished league play at 5-0 and won the league championship. The loser will be on the bubble to get in as an at-large. Both would need Menlo to beat Sacred Heart Prep and maintain the point from having Menlo being in the top 150 in the state.
El Camino - If Gunn beats last place Monta Vista they are in. The winner of the Cupertino and Los Altos game in week 10 will be in the play-offs as well. The loser likely won't make it as a wild card. A Los Altos win will have them as sole league champions with Gunn alone in second. a Cupertino win leaves a three way tie between Cupertino, Los Altos and Gunn with Cupertino having the most CCS points, followed by Gunn and then Los Altos. The top two teams get automatic berths.
Santa Teresa - Pioneer has clinched a play-off spot and is sole league champion with a win over last place Willow Glen. Branham is at Leigh for week 10. A Branham win and a Sobrato loss to Independence would would give Branham the second spot. If Leigh wins they get the second play-off spot. If Leigh losses and Sobrato wins, Leigh would win the three team tiebreaker with Sobrato and Branham. Leigh could also get in as an ant-large team with a loss. Branham and Sobrato will not have enough poitns for an at-large bid.
Cyprus - Scotts Valley has clinched the league's sole play-off spot. I have King City as the last team in as an at-large. They need to beat Pacific Grove to keep this spot.
PAL-Lake - San Mateo is the league's only play-off qualifier. They will be an underdog as they go into their rivalry game with Burlingame in the Little Big Game this weekend and try to close out their season undefeated.
West Valley - Hill has clinched the league's play-off spot. They are sole league champion with a win over last place James Lick this weekend.
Santa Lucia - St. Francis of Watsonville wrapped up this league a month ago and closes out their seasons against Pajaro Valley in week 10.
At Large Selections - After all the 33 league automatic berths are allocated the remaining teams are in one pool. The top ten 10 teams by CCS points are taken provided that there can be no more than six play-off teams per league and then they are ranked by their Calprep ranking with the top ranking team getting 10 points added to their CCS point total, the next team gets 9 points and the lowest ranked team adds one point: The projected cut-off to get into the at-large pool is 21 points. Current At-Large Projections
1. Saint Ignatius - 30 + 10 =40
2. Sacred Heart Cathedral 26 + 9 = 35
3. Christopher 26.5 + 8 =34.5
4. Mountain View 23.8 + 7 =30.8
5. Terra Nova 21.5 + 6 = 27.5
6. Alisal 22.4 +5 = 27.4
7. King City 23.2 + 2 = 25.2
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8. Aragon 21 +4 = 25.0
9. Milpitas 21 +3 =24
10. Los Altos 21.3+1 = 22.3
Undefeated - St. Francis, Serra, Los Gatos, Salinas, Menlo, Santa Cruz and San Mateo enter the final week of the regular season undefeated. St. Francis and Serra play head to head. Los Gatos will be a heavy favorite against Milpitas, Salinas (against Palma), Menlo (against Sacred Heart Prep) and Santa Cruz (against Soquel) will all be double digit favorites in their rivalry game. San Mateo will be a heavy underdog to Burlingame in their rivalry game.
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Agree with the Col (usually do) - what reform do you feel is needed? I think it depends on what you are trying to design the system to accomplish. I think this system does a very good job of creating the most competitive play-off brackets possible each year.
It looks at every season as a single entity and there is no continuity from year to year (you could be in Division 5 one year and Division 2 the next). It also does not send the sections best teams onto regional and state play-offs but I think it intentionally does not try to meet either of these objectives.
When I look at most of the projected brackets, I think they are pretty balanced and am hard pressed to think of teams that should be in a very different bracket this year than they are placed in.
I do think the CCS point system could be tweaked. My personal preferences are to do away with a point for playing a league champion and I think a system that builds your schedule points on a teams year end Calpreps ranking is better than one that does it by designated opponents on what league they are.in. But even if you made these changes I think you would come out with brackets that are pretty close to what we know have. I do like the extra points for playing a top 100 and top 150 Calpreps team as a way to distinguish playing the best opponents.
I also like that that they have stopped trying to distinguish strength of football programs by size of school student population or public vs private. The notion that simply because you have a lot more students you will have a better team was generally true a generation ago but much less so today. Today there is equal importance on demographics, resources committed to athletics in general and football in particular, and degree of open boundaries for public schools as there is to overall school size.
It looks at every season as a single entity and there is no continuity from year to year (you could be in Division 5 one year and Division 2 the next). It also does not send the sections best teams onto regional and state play-offs but I think it intentionally does not try to meet either of these objectives.
When I look at most of the projected brackets, I think they are pretty balanced and am hard pressed to think of teams that should be in a very different bracket this year than they are placed in.
I do think the CCS point system could be tweaked. My personal preferences are to do away with a point for playing a league champion and I think a system that builds your schedule points on a teams year end Calpreps ranking is better than one that does it by designated opponents on what league they are.in. But even if you made these changes I think you would come out with brackets that are pretty close to what we know have. I do like the extra points for playing a top 100 and top 150 Calpreps team as a way to distinguish playing the best opponents.
I also like that that they have stopped trying to distinguish strength of football programs by size of school student population or public vs private. The notion that simply because you have a lot more students you will have a better team was generally true a generation ago but much less so today. Today there is equal importance on demographics, resources committed to athletics in general and football in particular, and degree of open boundaries for public schools as there is to overall school size.
I think the biggest adjustment that needs to be made is the league placement index. Using the number of playoff games as a criterion is not a true indicator of league strength, since most A leagues stack the number of automatic bids in their favor. I think they should use the same criteria as for out-of-section teams. The average rating for a league should determine whether it's A, B, or C.
It's pretty clear that the MHAL is no longer A-league strength.
It's pretty clear that the MHAL is no longer A-league strength.
There is no perfect system. That is especially true when publics and private/parochials are mixed together. But that subject has been hashed out to death. The current equity-heavy CCS system does what is intended to a high degree of accuracy. CIF wants a commitment to evening out competition and, so far, it has done so, almost to a fault. We can argue (and we certainly have) about the merits of clearly inadequate and deeply flawed football teams playing for state titles but CIF has made that point moot at this juncture. The wheezing horse is out of the California barn.
Another 10 CCS teams completed their regular season Thursday night and there were a few results that impacted the Play-off filed.
First King City failed to convert two two point conversions in the last 2:30 minutes of the game and were upset by Pacific Grove 27-25. This knocks King City out of the field.
The last at-large berth is likely to come down to the loser of the Hillsdale-Aragon game (Calpreps favors Hillsdale by 11) or Milpitas. For Aragon to get the last spot they need to continue to stay ranked ahead of Milpitas in the Calprep ranking (Aragon currently ranked #36 and Milpitas #38) and Menlo School must beat SHP and stay ranked in the top 150 in the state (they are currently ranked 144).
Second, As expected San Benito beat Seaside. This means the winner or the Alvarez - Alisal game will take 6th place in the Gabilan and will be an at-large team for the play-offs. The loser is out.
Third - Gunn beat Monta Vista by forfeit and clinched second place in the El Camino division and will gain a playoff spot
As of this morning 30 teams have clinched play-off spots:
St. Francis
Serra
Bellarmine
Valley Christian
Salinas
Aptos
San Benito
Palma
Christopher (at-large)
Menlo-Atherton
Half Moon Bay
Burlingame
Sacred Heart Prep
Terra Nova (At-large)
Leland
Live Oak
Lincoln
Los Gatos
Wilcox
Palo Alto
Mountain View (At-large)
Menlo School
Santa Cruz
Soquel
Pioneer
Gunn
Scotts Valley
Hill
San Mateo
St. Francis- Watsonville
Four teams are playing head to head with the winner guaranteed a play-off spot
Alverez vs Alisal (Alisal favored by 1)
Cupertino vs Los Altos (Cupertino favored by 3)
North Salinas vs Gilroy (North Salinas favored by 7)
Hillsdale vs Aragon (Hillsdale favored by 11)
Two At large spots will go to the WCAL teams that finish 5th and 6th. This will be decided between Saint Ignatius, Riordan and Sacred Heart Cathedral. Two will go to the play-offs one will not.
It is highly likely that three automatic spots will go to:
1. Leigh get second Santa Teresa league spot either with a win over Branham (favored by 21) or if Sobrato beats Independence (favored by 20)
2. Santa Teresa - gets fourth spot from Mount Hamilton with either a win over Oak Grove (favored by 22) or if Live Oak beats Piedmont Hills (favored by 27)
3. Homestead - gets fourth AQ spot in DeAnza if they beat Santa Clara (favored by 16) - If Homestead losses Moutnain View who has already qualified as an at-large would get the 4th AQ spot and opens another At-large spot that would likely go to Milpitas over Homestead
The last spot likely comes down to Aragon or Milpitas as described above. Another update after the 28 games Friday night.
First King City failed to convert two two point conversions in the last 2:30 minutes of the game and were upset by Pacific Grove 27-25. This knocks King City out of the field.
The last at-large berth is likely to come down to the loser of the Hillsdale-Aragon game (Calpreps favors Hillsdale by 11) or Milpitas. For Aragon to get the last spot they need to continue to stay ranked ahead of Milpitas in the Calprep ranking (Aragon currently ranked #36 and Milpitas #38) and Menlo School must beat SHP and stay ranked in the top 150 in the state (they are currently ranked 144).
Second, As expected San Benito beat Seaside. This means the winner or the Alvarez - Alisal game will take 6th place in the Gabilan and will be an at-large team for the play-offs. The loser is out.
Third - Gunn beat Monta Vista by forfeit and clinched second place in the El Camino division and will gain a playoff spot
As of this morning 30 teams have clinched play-off spots:
St. Francis
Serra
Bellarmine
Valley Christian
Salinas
Aptos
San Benito
Palma
Christopher (at-large)
Menlo-Atherton
Half Moon Bay
Burlingame
Sacred Heart Prep
Terra Nova (At-large)
Leland
Live Oak
Lincoln
Los Gatos
Wilcox
Palo Alto
Mountain View (At-large)
Menlo School
Santa Cruz
Soquel
Pioneer
Gunn
Scotts Valley
Hill
San Mateo
St. Francis- Watsonville
Four teams are playing head to head with the winner guaranteed a play-off spot
Alverez vs Alisal (Alisal favored by 1)
Cupertino vs Los Altos (Cupertino favored by 3)
North Salinas vs Gilroy (North Salinas favored by 7)
Hillsdale vs Aragon (Hillsdale favored by 11)
Two At large spots will go to the WCAL teams that finish 5th and 6th. This will be decided between Saint Ignatius, Riordan and Sacred Heart Cathedral. Two will go to the play-offs one will not.
It is highly likely that three automatic spots will go to:
1. Leigh get second Santa Teresa league spot either with a win over Branham (favored by 21) or if Sobrato beats Independence (favored by 20)
2. Santa Teresa - gets fourth spot from Mount Hamilton with either a win over Oak Grove (favored by 22) or if Live Oak beats Piedmont Hills (favored by 27)
3. Homestead - gets fourth AQ spot in DeAnza if they beat Santa Clara (favored by 16) - If Homestead losses Moutnain View who has already qualified as an at-large would get the 4th AQ spot and opens another At-large spot that would likely go to Milpitas over Homestead
The last spot likely comes down to Aragon or Milpitas as described above. Another update after the 28 games Friday night.
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One interesting tidbit - the CCS seeding meting is 9 AM Sunday. The play-off by-laws stipulate that for purposes of setting the field and rankings it will be based on what Calprep has in place at 8 AM Sunday morning. Frequently, based on when scores are finally reported by teams, Calprep does not finish adjusting their ratings until midday on Sunday. It would be ashamed if a team missed the play-offs or seeding for a home game because the final ratings later in the day that fully reflected week 10 action were different than they were at 8 AM
This will be an interesting point to follow. An captured instance at 8AM compared to a captured instance at 4PM will help us know if there is a real problem here. Am I right that 3 parts of the CCS formula that depend on CP data - OOS opponent A-C classification, SOS opponent top 100-150 and CCS ranking?
Is Gunn definitely in? They are not actually second in the El Camino. Cupertino beat Los Altos tonight so all three finish 5-1 and in a three way tie for first place. I'm not sure about this, but I think the league bylaws carry the day to break the three way tie. That may mean Cupertino first, Los Altos second, Gunn third. Does the league simply break the 3 way tie based on CCS points (not using Calpreps rankings) and then the Calpreps rankings are only used for seeding, not selection of auto qualifiers?
There is some confusion in the El Camino standings in point totals based on how the Cupertino vs Saratoga and Gunn Vs Monta Vista games are being treated. Max Preps and the local press are calling them forfeit victories for Cupertino and Gunn as opposed to canceled games which would not go on the record. Calprep rankings will not influence how the El Camino executes its tie breaker.
If the games are forfeit wins then the tiebreaker will be CCS Points and my calculations show. This is what I show
1. Cupertino 23.83 (Also counts El Camino as a forfeit win but if it is a canceled game it only minimally reduces Cupertino's score and they are still #1)
2. Gunn 21.83
3. Los Altos 21.33
If the games in question are cancelled games then they would not count in the Standings and you would end up
1. Los Altos 5-1
2. Gunn 4-1 (Gunn beat Cupertino head to head)
3. Cupertino 4-1
Under this scenario Mountain View would gain another 0.67 seed and move up a seed. Based on all the quotes from the coaches this morning I think the first scenario is the one everyone was assuming is in place.
If the games are forfeit wins then the tiebreaker will be CCS Points and my calculations show. This is what I show
1. Cupertino 23.83 (Also counts El Camino as a forfeit win but if it is a canceled game it only minimally reduces Cupertino's score and they are still #1)
2. Gunn 21.83
3. Los Altos 21.33
If the games in question are cancelled games then they would not count in the Standings and you would end up
1. Los Altos 5-1
2. Gunn 4-1 (Gunn beat Cupertino head to head)
3. Cupertino 4-1
Under this scenario Mountain View would gain another 0.67 seed and move up a seed. Based on all the quotes from the coaches this morning I think the first scenario is the one everyone was assuming is in place.
While there were no upsets in Friday's night action there has been some major movement in the Calprep rankings that have moved seedings. Hillsdale, Santa Teresa, Leigh, Homestead, Alisal and Cupertino (see above post) clinched spots
to move the number of teams in the play-offs to 36. The last four spots will be determined from today's games.
1. The winner of North Salinas and Gilroy will make the play-offs
2 and 3. Two the three SF WCAL teams will make the play-offs between SI, Riordan and SHC.
4. Right now Milpitas holds a narrow edge over Aragon for the final at-large spot. While they are both done playing it is possible that Saturday's action could adjust their rankings again and change this.
The big impact from last night's game was in the Diablo Foothill League action where Las Lomas win over Benicia made Campolindo a tri-champion in their league and gave Aptos an additional 0.33 points which moves them to the number 8 seed in DI and moves San Benito to the #1 seed in D2
Play-off field inclusive of Friday's games -
D1 - a lot of movement in the Calprep rankings among these teams has jostled thee seeding. With four of these teams playing today they could move again.
1. St. Francis 81 (1)
2 .Serra 73.2 (4)
3. Bellarmine 73 (2)
4. Salinas 72.5 (6)
5. Menlo-Atherton 71.8 (3)
6. Los Gatos 71.5 (5)
7. Valley Christian 68 (7)
8. Aptos 63.5 (Was #1 in D2))
D 2 - Three of these teams play today as well so there could be further movement in the seeding
1 .San Benito 63.2 (Was #8 in D1)
2. Palma 61 (2)
3. Wilcox 61 (3)
4. Half Moon Bay 58.3 (4)
5. Menlo 57.5 (4)
6.Saint Ignatius 56 (4)
7. Santa Cruz 55.1 (7)
8. Burlingame 53 (8)
D3- No Movement from last week. SHC is the only team in action today
1. Leland 52.5 (1)
2. Live Oak 51.4 (2)
3. Sacred Heart Cathedral 48 (3)
4. Christopher 47.5 (4)
5. Palo Alto 45 (5)
6. Leigh 42 (6)
7. Mountain View 41.8 (7)
8. Scotts Valley 39 (8)
D4 - some movement inthe seeding - same teams as last week - SHP plays today
1. Homestead 38 (3)
2. Hillsdale 38 (2)
3. Sacred Heart Prep 37 (1)
4. Santa Teresa 36.5 (4)
5. Pioneer 36.5 (5)
6. Alisal 33.4 (7)
7. Terra Nova 31.5 (6)
8. Lincoln 30.5 (8)
D5 - Milpitas joins the field as the #1 seed in D5
1. Milpitas 29.3 ( was not in field - replaces King City who was #4 in D5)
2. San Mateo 27.6 (1)
3. Soquel 27.5 (3)
4. Gunn 26.8 (2)
5. Cupertino 26.8 (5)
6. North Salinas 23.4 (6)
7. St. Francis-Watsonville 21 (7)
8. Hill 19.2 (8)
to move the number of teams in the play-offs to 36. The last four spots will be determined from today's games.
1. The winner of North Salinas and Gilroy will make the play-offs
2 and 3. Two the three SF WCAL teams will make the play-offs between SI, Riordan and SHC.
4. Right now Milpitas holds a narrow edge over Aragon for the final at-large spot. While they are both done playing it is possible that Saturday's action could adjust their rankings again and change this.
The big impact from last night's game was in the Diablo Foothill League action where Las Lomas win over Benicia made Campolindo a tri-champion in their league and gave Aptos an additional 0.33 points which moves them to the number 8 seed in DI and moves San Benito to the #1 seed in D2
Play-off field inclusive of Friday's games -
D1 - a lot of movement in the Calprep rankings among these teams has jostled thee seeding. With four of these teams playing today they could move again.
1. St. Francis 81 (1)
2 .Serra 73.2 (4)
3. Bellarmine 73 (2)
4. Salinas 72.5 (6)
5. Menlo-Atherton 71.8 (3)
6. Los Gatos 71.5 (5)
7. Valley Christian 68 (7)
8. Aptos 63.5 (Was #1 in D2))
D 2 - Three of these teams play today as well so there could be further movement in the seeding
1 .San Benito 63.2 (Was #8 in D1)
2. Palma 61 (2)
3. Wilcox 61 (3)
4. Half Moon Bay 58.3 (4)
5. Menlo 57.5 (4)
6.Saint Ignatius 56 (4)
7. Santa Cruz 55.1 (7)
8. Burlingame 53 (8)
D3- No Movement from last week. SHC is the only team in action today
1. Leland 52.5 (1)
2. Live Oak 51.4 (2)
3. Sacred Heart Cathedral 48 (3)
4. Christopher 47.5 (4)
5. Palo Alto 45 (5)
6. Leigh 42 (6)
7. Mountain View 41.8 (7)
8. Scotts Valley 39 (8)
D4 - some movement inthe seeding - same teams as last week - SHP plays today
1. Homestead 38 (3)
2. Hillsdale 38 (2)
3. Sacred Heart Prep 37 (1)
4. Santa Teresa 36.5 (4)
5. Pioneer 36.5 (5)
6. Alisal 33.4 (7)
7. Terra Nova 31.5 (6)
8. Lincoln 30.5 (8)
D5 - Milpitas joins the field as the #1 seed in D5
1. Milpitas 29.3 ( was not in field - replaces King City who was #4 in D5)
2. San Mateo 27.6 (1)
3. Soquel 27.5 (3)
4. Gunn 26.8 (2)
5. Cupertino 26.8 (5)
6. North Salinas 23.4 (6)
7. St. Francis-Watsonville 21 (7)
8. Hill 19.2 (8)
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You are correct in the elements where Calpreps comes into play. There are a few OOS teams close to the thresholds McLymonds #99 (Menlo-Atherton) - Lincoln -19.2 (Terra Nova) that will change schedule points for play-off teams and you have , Valley Christian #89 (plays today) Aptos #97 and Menlo (plays today) #145 close to the line which can change points for all their opponents.
This morning I tracked a few changes that occurred between 8 and 8:30 - none of today's changes altered the seedings but hopefully that doesn't happen tomorrow. Today Santa Cruz moved ahead SI so Santa Cruz gained a point and SI lost a point. Similarly Hillsade was put ahead of Scotts Valley and Hillsdale gained a point and Scotts Valley lost a point.
Yes - Serra and SF would likely swap places if Serra wins. My Calculations would Drop SF from 81 to 76.22 and Serra would go from 73.22 to 78.
Serra would get 2 points for a win, 1.5 more points for being sole WCAL champion and by Calpreps formula be ranked ahead of Saint Francis as an undefeated team that beat them and another 0.27 in their 9 game schedule formula. So that's is 4.78 points for Serra and Saint Francis would lose that number of points. A Serra win will also add a point for Palo Alto and Half Moon Bay.
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Got it — thanks for all your work on this. You are the playoff projection GOAT.
Saturday morning and afternoon results were as expected. North Salinas captured the third spot form the Mission League by beating Gilroy. Sacred Heart Cathedral and Saint Ignatius took 5th and 6th place in the WCAL respectively. SI took the league tiebreaker over Riordan due to their head to head win. I have Milpitas (0.1 ranking and #35 in CCS) edging out Aragon (-0.1 ranking and #37 in CCS) for the last spot. I don't think anything that transpired on Saturday will boost Aragon's ranking back above Milpitas.
I am sure there will be some slight seeding adjustments as today's results are calculated int eh Calpreps system and I will report those out at 8 AM Sunday which is what supposed to utilized at the seeding meeting tomorrow.
I am sure there will be some slight seeding adjustments as today's results are calculated int eh Calpreps system and I will report those out at 8 AM Sunday which is what supposed to utilized at the seeding meeting tomorrow.
I didn't read through your other posts so maybe your rationale is posted in some other location. But why do you think Burlingame's placement is proof of how insane the system is?
The difference between being the 8 seed in one division and the 1 seed in another is marginal in terms of talent and resume, yet it's enormous in deciding who has a chance to win a section title and compete at the regional and state level.
Yet, someone has to be #8 in D-2 and someone has to be #1 in D-3.
Here are the seedings for the CCS Play-offs based on CCS rankings and Calpreps as of 8 AM this morning.
D1
8. Aptos 63.5 at 1. St. Francis 81
5. Salinas 72.5 at 4. Menlo-Atherton 72.8
6. Los Gatos 71.5 at 3. Bellarmine 73
7. Valley Christian 68 at 2. Serra 73.2
D2
8. Burlingame 53 at 1. San Benito 63.2
5. Menlo 57.5 at 4. Half Moon Bay 58.3
6. Saint Ignatius 56 at 3. Wilcox 61
7. Santa Cruz 55.1 at Palma 61
D3
8. Scotts Valley 39 at 1. Leland 52.5
5. Palo Alto 45 at 4. Christopher 47.5
6. Leigh 42 at 3. Sacred Heart Cathedral 48
7. Mountain View 41.8 at 2. Live Oak 51.4
D4
8. Lincoln 30.5 at 1. Homestead 38
5. Pioneer 35.5 at 4. Santa Teresa 36.5
6. Alisal 34.4 at 3. Sacred Heart Prep 37
7. Terra Nova 31.5 at 2. Hillsdale 38
D5*
8. Hill19.2 at 1. Milpitas 29.3
5. Gunn 25.8 at 4. San Mateo 26.6
6. North Salinas 25.4 at 3. Cupertino 26.8
7. St. Francis Watsonville 21 at 2. Soquel 27.5
* Assumes Cupertino given a forfeit win over El Camino. If not Cupertino score goes to 26.5 and they are the 4 seed and San amteo is the 3 seed
D1
8. Aptos 63.5 at 1. St. Francis 81
5. Salinas 72.5 at 4. Menlo-Atherton 72.8
6. Los Gatos 71.5 at 3. Bellarmine 73
7. Valley Christian 68 at 2. Serra 73.2
D2
8. Burlingame 53 at 1. San Benito 63.2
5. Menlo 57.5 at 4. Half Moon Bay 58.3
6. Saint Ignatius 56 at 3. Wilcox 61
7. Santa Cruz 55.1 at Palma 61
D3
8. Scotts Valley 39 at 1. Leland 52.5
5. Palo Alto 45 at 4. Christopher 47.5
6. Leigh 42 at 3. Sacred Heart Cathedral 48
7. Mountain View 41.8 at 2. Live Oak 51.4
D4
8. Lincoln 30.5 at 1. Homestead 38
5. Pioneer 35.5 at 4. Santa Teresa 36.5
6. Alisal 34.4 at 3. Sacred Heart Prep 37
7. Terra Nova 31.5 at 2. Hillsdale 38
D5*
8. Hill19.2 at 1. Milpitas 29.3
5. Gunn 25.8 at 4. San Mateo 26.6
6. North Salinas 25.4 at 3. Cupertino 26.8
7. St. Francis Watsonville 21 at 2. Soquel 27.5
* Assumes Cupertino given a forfeit win over El Camino. If not Cupertino score goes to 26.5 and they are the 4 seed and San amteo is the 3 seed
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Some discussion if brackets should be regulated in some manner. Here is a breakdown fo brackets by league and A B and C classification.
D1 - All A league teams- Top four from WCAL - League champs from Deanza, PAL-Bay and Gabilan and T2 Gabilan.
D2 - 6 A league teams and 2 undefeated B teams - 2nd and 3rd place PAL-Bay, 2nd place Deanza, T2nd and 4th place Gabilan, 6th place WCAL; B Teams Ocean Chamion, Mission Champion
D3 - 6 A league teams and 2 B teams - Mt. Hamilton champ and runner up, WCAL 5th place, Deanza T3rd and T5th, and Gabilan 5th, B league teams: Cypress Champion and Santa Teresa Runner up
D4 - 6 A League teams and 2 B teams - Deanza T3rd, Gabilan 6th, Mt. Hamilton 3rd and 4th, PAL-Bay 4th and 6th - 2 B Leagues: Santa Teresa Champion and Ocean Runner-up
D5 - 1 A team, 4 B teams ad 3 C teams - A league - DeAnza T5th, B Teams 2 El Camino try-champs, 2nd and 3rd Mission; C League teams Champions from Lake, Santa Lucia and West Valley.
D1 - All A league teams- Top four from WCAL - League champs from Deanza, PAL-Bay and Gabilan and T2 Gabilan.
D2 - 6 A league teams and 2 undefeated B teams - 2nd and 3rd place PAL-Bay, 2nd place Deanza, T2nd and 4th place Gabilan, 6th place WCAL; B Teams Ocean Chamion, Mission Champion
D3 - 6 A league teams and 2 B teams - Mt. Hamilton champ and runner up, WCAL 5th place, Deanza T3rd and T5th, and Gabilan 5th, B league teams: Cypress Champion and Santa Teresa Runner up
D4 - 6 A League teams and 2 B teams - Deanza T3rd, Gabilan 6th, Mt. Hamilton 3rd and 4th, PAL-Bay 4th and 6th - 2 B Leagues: Santa Teresa Champion and Ocean Runner-up
D5 - 1 A team, 4 B teams ad 3 C teams - A league - DeAnza T5th, B Teams 2 El Camino try-champs, 2nd and 3rd Mission; C League teams Champions from Lake, Santa Lucia and West Valley.
Interesting thoughts.
I would make a couple adjustments here
I think a change should be made to the CCS points formula by dropping the bonus points for league champ opponents. The rationale is that the current CCS formula already takes in account benefit for scheduling stronger opponents via CP data.
Brackets regulated by league classifications
D1 should have all A league teams, being the top 8 A league teams according to CCS points. I would avoid singling out the WCAL league (or any other single league) for special rules.
D2-D4 - leave it the way it is now except for results of the parameters applied to D1 and D5
D5 should be all B and C league teams, ruling out any A league teams.
I did a CP CA statewide comparison from an instance at 8AM and an instance at 9AM and there were ZERO changes. The rankings stayed in the exact order and the rating points stayed exactly the same.
I plan to do the same at 4PM to observe any changes. I expect a global point change as the CA data adjusts to the entire database. That's normally a 0.1 or 0.2 change for every teams in rating points but no change in rankings. We will see if there are greater changes.
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Longer than usual meeting today - suggest either some controversy or a difficult time figuring out all the 9 game and and 8 game formulas to get team numbers on the Board properly.
I see people trashing SJS playoff system? It makes more sense. Enrollment based with adjustments for competition. But I was seeing thay Long Beach Poly is a D4 team down there. A team that has played in Open Bowl game. That has produced more NFL players than any other school D4 ? Doesn't make sense?
The SS system makes way more sense than the SJS. Are any of those NFL players on the current LBP team?
Didn’t think so.
