Official CCS Final Play-off Seeding - released by CCS

[PALbooster]

Actual brackets are out and are different than projections - Aragon and Los Altos are in instead of Terra Nova and Gunn. Will be curious as to the rules used for points calculations. Also a few seeds are different

D1

8. Aptos at 1. St. Francis
5. Menlo-Atherton at 4. Salinas (I had these seeds filled)
6. Los Gatos at 3. Bellarmine
7. Valley Christian at 2. Serra

D2

8. Burlingame at 1. San Benito
5. Half Moon Bay 58.3 at 4. Menlo (I had these seeds flipped)
6. Santa Cruz. at 3. Wilcox (I had Santa Cruz and Saint Ignatius flipped)
7. Saint Ignatius at 2. Palma

D3

8. Scotts Valley at 1. Leland
5. Palo Alto at 4. Christopher
6. Leigh at 3. Sacred Heart Cathedral
7. Mountain View at 2. Live Oak

D4 - I had Terra Nova at 7 Lincoln at 8 and Milpitas #1 in D5

8. Milpitas at 1. Homestead
5. Pioneer at 4. Santa Teresa
6. Alisal at 3. Sacred Heart Prep
7. Lincoln at 2. Hillsdale

D5* - Los Altos is in and Gunn is out - Aragon is in and pushed Milpitas up. Some seed changes
8. Hill at 1. Aragon
5. North Salinas at 4. San Mateo
6. Los Altos at 3.Soquel
7. St. Francis Watsonville at 2. Cupertino

 

[NCS707]

The SS system makes way more sense than the SJS. Are any of those NFL players on the current LBP team?

Didn’t think so.

They have nearly 4000 students….

 

[colhenrylives]

All CCS brackets are up on Twitter.

 

[NCS707]

Actual brackets are out and are different than projections - Aragon and Los Altos are in instead of Terra Nova and Gunn. Will be curious as to the rules used for points calculations. Also a few seeds are different

D1

8. Aptos at 1. St. Francis
5. Menlo-Atherton at 4. Salinas (I had these seeds filled)
6. Los Gatos at 3. Bellarmine
7. Valley Christian at 2. Serra

D2

8. Burlingame at 1. San Benito
5. Half Moon Bay 58.3 at 4. Menlo (I had these seeds flipped)
6. Santa Cruz. at 3. Wilcox (I had Santa Cruz and Saint Ignatius flipped)
7. Saint Ignatius at 2. Palma

D3

8. Scotts Valley at 1. Leland
5. Palo Alto at 4. Christopher
6. Leigh at 3. Sacred Heart Cathedral
7. Mountain View at 2. Live Oak

D4 - I had Terra Nova at 7 Lincoln at 8 and Milpitas #1 in D5

8. Milpitas at 1. Homestead
5. Pioneer at 4. Santa Teresa
6. Alisal at 3. Sacred Heart Prep
7. Lincoln at 2. Hillsdale

D5* - Los Altos is in and Gunn is out - Aragon is in and pushed Milpitas up. Some seed changes
8. Hill at 1. Aragon
5. North Salinas at 4. San Mateo
6. Los Altos at 3.Soquel
7. St. Francis Watsonville at 2. Cupertino

I’m sorry this system is absurd. How does SHC get a D3 home game?! They are a large WCAL school for goodness sake! They played a very tough schedule and lost many close games but they’re 3-7.

Milpitas is 3-7 and has 3000+ students! They have been good in the past do they deserve a D4 playoff birth?!

IMO SJS and NCS are slightly better. Enrollment has to have some consideration or you reward larger schools for losing and punish smaller ones by having to play schools with a larger talent pool.

 

[PALbooster]

Here is what I had for Terra Nova, Milpitas and Aragon. All I can think is that 1) the PAL-Bay had a league equity rule that made them put 5th place Kings Academy forward before considering Terra Nova 2) Terra Nova didn't apply for the playoffs 3) Terra Nova made a math mistake in their application 4) They did not count the league championship point from AAA as Lincoln score was not reported at 8 AM this morning or 5) heaven forbid I made a mistake in my model

Terra Nova 4 wins = 8 points + 7.5 schedule points (5 A teams, 5 B teams - Lincoln OOS is a B team) +3 points for playing league champions (MA, Menlo, and Lincoln-SF)+3 bonus points (2 forMA ranked in top 100 ++ 1 for Menlo Ranked in top 150) =21.5 CCS points

Milpitas 3 wins =6 points + 10 schedule points ( All OOS are A teams)+ 1.33 points for playing league champions (1 pt. los Gatos, 0.33 Campolindo)+4 bonus points (los Gatos and California top 100) = 21.33 CCS points

Aragon 6 wins =12 points + 6 schedule points (3 A's, 6 B's, 1C) + 2 league champions (Menlo, Leland) + 1 bonus point (Menlo top 150) = 21 points

CCS Ranking from CalPrep
Terra Nova 33
Milpitas 36
Aragon 38
Among at-large I had the order Terra Nova 6th, Milpitas 7th and Aragon 8th

So the final totals for determining at large teams were:
Terra Nova 21.5 + 5 = 26.5
Milpitas 21.33 +4 = 25.33
Aragon 21 +3 = 24

For the El Camino League - I had all three teams Cupertino, Gunn, and Los Altos tied for first at 6-1. Although Gunn (Monta Vista) and Cupertino (Saratoga) had forfeit wins. Without the forfeits it wold be Los Altos first and Gunn/Cupertino tied for second but Gunn won head to head). So this result is puzzling absent how they treated forfeits/no contest games or if their by-laws had a blind draw or point differential in head to head games. I had the tiebreaker being CCS points since they all went 1-1 head to head. CCS Points -Cupertino 23.83 Gunn 21.83, Los Altos 21.33

 

[Cal 14]

I’m sorry this system is absurd. How does SHC get a D3 home game?! They are a large WCAL school for goodness sake! They played a very tough schedule and lost many close games but they’re 3-7.

Milpitas is 3-7 and has 3000+ students! They have been good in the past do they deserve a D4 playoff birth?!

IMO SJS and NCS are slightly better. Enrollment has to have some consideration or you reward larger schools for losing and punish smaller ones by having to play schools with a larger talent pool.

The 1990s were a long time ago. Everyone and their mother have already recognized that enrollment is a terrible means to determine divisions. The NCS system is the worst in the state, just behind the SDS.

 

[Cal 14]

They have nearly 4000 students….

🤷🏻‍♂️

Doesn’t mean squat.

 

[NCS707]

🤷🏻‍♂️

Doesn’t mean squat.

SJS has competitive equity elements as does NCS. Case in Point Rancho Cotate has 1500 students but has an excellent program so they play D2. They also have larger schools without much support/facilities able to go down a few divisions.

So you’re fine with the theoretical matchup of a Milpitas type school having a down year matchup with a school like Gonzales?

If you want true competitive equity just calpreps the top 40 teams and bracket them. Damn the smaller schools or ones without favorable support/facilities/demographics.

 

[Rocknrolus 95361]

The SS system makes way more sense than the SJS. Are any of those NFL players on the current LBP team?

Didn’t think so.

But they still have 4,000 enrollment? A D4? Okay yes that makes sense?

 

[Cal 14]

SJS has competitive equity elements as does NCS. Case in Point Rancho Cotate has 1500 students but has an excellent program so they play D2. They also have larger schools without much support/facilities able to go down a few divisions.

So you’re fine with the theoretical matchup of a Milpitas type school having a down year matchup with a school like Gonzales?

If you want true competitive equity just calpreps the top 40 teams and bracket them. Damn the smaller schools or ones without favorable support/facilities/demographics.

I would modify the CCS playoffs to prohibit A league teams from seeded into D-5 and B/C team from D-1. Otherwise, a B league champ should probably be competitive with a 5th place A league team, not from the WCAL.

The SJS and NCS only have smidgens of competitive equity, although the SJS is way better now than it used to be.

 

[Cal 14]

But they still have 4,000 enrollment? A D4? Okay yes that makes sense?

Keep in mind the SS has 14 divisions. Poly would get smoked in D-1 and D-2. They’ve already lost to a team in D-3. They don’t really have any major wins this year. Every really good team they played beat them, a couple really badly. They really are a D-3/4 team.

Enrollment means nothing.

 

[Scoop and Score]

I’m sorry this system is absurd. How does SHC get a D3 home game?! They are a large WCAL school for goodness sake! They played a very tough schedule and lost many close games but they’re 3-7.

Milpitas is 3-7 and has 3000+ students! They have been good in the past do they deserve a D4 playoff birth?!

IMO SJS and NCS are slightly better. Enrollment has to have some consideration or you reward larger schools for losing and punish smaller ones by having to play schools with a larger talent pool.

SHC would beat Milpitas by 35+, not a good comparison.

 

[JRMV]

I alluded to this the other day on the El Camino; the bylaws carry the day. The bylaws on the SCVAL website say 3 way tie, that is not decided by head to head results, is broken by:
1) CCS points decide #1 - that is Cupertino
2) head to head among the two remaining teams decides second - that is Los Altos beat Gunn

Hence, Gunn is out even though they may have more points. I think that is how it was decided. The league just puts up the 2 auto qualifiers per bylaws - Cupertino and Los Altos. Then, Gunn tries to get in as an at large but doesn't have enough points.

I think all games were called forfeits and none were called cancelled games. As a wrinkle, some of these games were not even full games. I believe Los Altos beat Independence after 1.5 quarters due to a smoke out, and Saratoga forfeited at half due to injury.

One add here is I really appreciate these projections posts. These are lots of fun, full of information and just tremendous effort each week.

 

[TurtleLoveCA]

Yet, someone has to be #8 in D-2 and someone has to be #1 in D-3.

Not in the absurdly arbitrary cut-off nature of the current system.

 

[PALbooster]

I alluded to this the other day on the El Camino; the bylaws carry the day. The bylaws on the SCVAL website say 3 way tie, that is not decided by head to head results, is broken by:
1) CCS points decide #1 - that is Cupertino
2) head to head among the two remaining teams decides second - that is Los Altos beat Gunn

Hence, Gunn is out even though they may have more points. I think that is how it was decided. The league just puts up the 2 auto qualifiers per bylaws - Cupertino and Los Altos. Then, Gunn tries to get in as an at large but doesn't have enough points.

I think all games were called forfeits and none were called cancelled games. As a wrinkle, some of these games were not even full games. I believe Los Altos beat Independence after 1.5 quarters due to a smoke out, and Saratoga forfeited at half due to injury.

One add here is I really appreciate these projections posts. These are lots of fun, full of information and just tremendous effort each week.

Thanks - that explanation makes sense - in most three way tiebreakers they play it out for all tiebreakers that way and don't come back tot eh two team tie=breaker after they break the first tie. All leagues have their own by-laws though.

 

[FBAddict]

One interesting tidbit - the CCS seeding meting is 9 AM Sunday. The play-off by-laws stipulate that for purposes of setting the field and rankings it will be based on what Calprep has in place at 8 AM Sunday morning. Frequently, based on when scores are finally reported by teams, Calprep does not finish adjusting their ratings until midday on Sunday. It would be ashamed if a team missed the play-offs or seeding for a home game because the final ratings later in the day that fully reflected week 10 action were different than they were at 8 AM

I did a CP CA statewide comparison from an instance at 8AM and an instance at 9AM and there were ZERO changes. The rankings stayed in the exact order and the rating points stayed exactly the same.

I plan to do the same at 4PM to observe any changes. I expect a global point change as the CA data adjusts to the entire database. That's normally a 0.1 or 0.2 change for every teams in rating points but no change in rankings. We will see if there are greater changes.

There were several points of data that changed from an 9AM instance of Calpreps and 4PM instance among the California database. All the changes were minor and I don't see any conditions that would affect the CCS seedings.
*No team in CA changed Top 100 (32.9) or Top 150 (25.9).
*No team in CA changed OOS opponent classification levels (A=+8.0 or more, B=+7.99 to -19.99, C=-20.00 or less)
*Interestingly, the only ranking changes in CCS were the very teams Palbooster mentioned. They didn't change in the playoff ranking but did change ranking with other non-playoff teams in CCS. Milpitas changed -0.1 point and dropped below the non-qualified TKA. Aragon also dropped -0.1 point and changed ranking with the non-qualified Alverez. Actually there was one other ranking change where Pajaro Valley and Harbor switched places, but those teams were far removed from playoff consideration.

In CCS, 28 of the 93 teams changed their ratings between 9AM and 4PM.
25 teams adjusted down by -0.1 point.
1 team (Pajaro Valley) adjusted down by -0.2 point
1 team (Evergreen Valley) adjusted up by +0.1 point
And one team, St. Francis, adjusted down -0.7 point.

Even though no playoff teams were affected by these minor changes this year, Palbooster is right that it is possible a change in CalPreps data could impact future years of CCS playoff seedings.

If it is of any solace, I think the CP data dynamics suggests Ned Freeman might be freezing his updates between 8AM and 10AM.

 

[2wcats]

https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2021/1...-los-gatos-bellarmine-game-changes-locations/

Add this to the long list of head scratchers from the CCS.

Just in case this article is behind a paywall again,
Per Darren S. The opening round game of No. 3 seed Bellarmine / No. 6 seed Los Gatos has been moved from Willow Glen to Los Gatos. But Los Gatos will be the visiting team and according to the Bay Area News group. The article had quoted Los Gatos coach Mark Krail in a text Monday morning that “details are being worked out, but it looks like we will be on the visiting sideline and the visiting team for the game.”

Now that is a new one even for the CCS. Does anyone remember this happening before? I suppose those teams with night game limitations or capacity limitations might have faced this before but I have always seen the games moved to neutral sites not back to the lower seeded home field.

 

[FBIQ]

I would modify the CCS playoffs to prohibit A league teams from seeded into D-5 and B/C team from D-1. Otherwise, a B league champ should probably be competitive with a 5th place A league team, not from the WCAL.

The SJS and NCS only have smidgens of competitive equity, although the SJS is way better now than it used to be.

So how would a B/C team work their way into the A league playoff bracket which IMO should be every teams goal.

 

[joebl]

https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2021/1...-los-gatos-bellarmine-game-changes-locations/

Add this to the long list of head scratchers from the CCS.

Just in case this article is behind a paywall again,
Per Darren S. The opening round game of No. 3 seed Bellarmine / No. 6 seed Los Gatos has been moved from Willow Glen to Los Gatos. But Los Gatos will be the visiting team and according to the Bay Area News group. The article had quoted Los Gatos coach Mark Krail in a text Monday morning that “details are being worked out, but it looks like we will be on the visiting sideline and the visiting team for the game.”

Now that is a new one even for the CCS. Does anyone remember this happening before? I suppose those teams with night game limitations or capacity limitations might have faced this before but I have always seen the games moved to neutral sites not back to the lower seeded home field.

I found it interesting that the CCS was the one who asked the game to be moved due to SJCC requiring COVID vaccines although all the Bells home games were played there previously. I'm presuming this has something to do with generating more gate revenue?

 

[scvalfan]

The CCS has found a successful way to create brackets for the top 16 teams or so, and then also the bottom 8-10 schools. The toughest task they have is honoring/acknowledging the mid-tier A level schools. The Division 3 and 4 brackets are full of those teams, and while the 5-5 and 3-7 records are a bad visual, I still think it is worth including those programs in the playoffs. Those schools play a meat grinder A league schedule, and obviously would be dominant in a lower division, but I am not sure if two 8 team brackets of them is the best answer.

 

[Cal 14]

So how would a B/C team work their way into the A league playoff bracket which IMO should be every teams goal.

If you win a C league, you are typically moved up to a B league. Win a B league, you are typically moved up to an A league.

While you would think this is every teams goal, I'm not so sure it is because they usually know what's waiting for them up there.

 

[Cal 14]

The CCS has found a way to create brackets for the top 16 teams or so, and then also the bottom 8-10 schools. The toughest task they have is honoring/acknowledging the mid-tier A level schools. The Division 3 and 4 brackets are full of those teams, and while the 5-5 and 3-7 records are a bad visual, I still think it is worth including those programs in the playoffs. Those schools play a meat grinder A league schedule, and obviously would be dominant in a lower division, but I am not sure if two 8 team brackets of them is the best answer.

I'm sure we'll see the typical "watered down" comments, but the fact is that making the playoffs in the CCS remains more difficult than in just about any other section. Similar-sized sections are the Central and San Diego. Those not only have more divisions, they typically have more teams per division. 4 divisions overall became untenable.

That said, preventing A teams from playing in D-5 and B/C teams in D-1 is the way to go.

 

[FBAddict]

I’m sorry this system is absurd. How does SHC get a D3 home game?! They are a large WCAL school for goodness sake! They played a very tough schedule and lost many close games but they’re 3-7.

Milpitas is 3-7 and has 3000+ students! They have been good in the past do they deserve a D4 playoff birth?!

IMO SJS and NCS are slightly better. Enrollment has to have some consideration or you reward larger schools for losing and punish smaller ones by having to play schools with a larger talent pool.

Here we go!!!! Milpitas was D4 this year and lost in the first round of CCS playoffs. This goes to show that 1) enrollment has a limited role in strength and 2) being good in the past has little influence on present strength. So CCS got it right - Milpitas was no better than their D4 placement.

 

[NCS707]

Here we go!!!! Milpitas was D4 this year and lost in the first round of CCS playoffs. This goes to show that 1) enrollment has a limited role in strength and 2) being good in the past has little influence on present strength. So CCS got it right - Milpitas was no better than their D4 placement.

Why did they deserve to make the playoffs….

 

[FBAddict]

Why did they deserve to make the playoffs….

Why does any team deserve to make playoffs?

 

[NCS707]

Why does any team deserve to make playoffs?

Why not just go full “competitive equity” and rank the teams 1-40 by CalPreps and build 5 brackets then.
I like placing teams in a competitive division, but a ceiling or a floor for enrollment helps. For example is SHC really in the 3rd tier of CCS? They are a large private school who is a part of the WCAL. They should be in D2. All WCAL should be D1, the city schools and Mitty D2.

 

[Cal 14]

Why not just go full “competitive equity” and rank the teams 1-40 by CalPreps and build 5 brackets then.
I like placing teams in a competitive division, but a ceiling or a floor for enrollment helps. For example is SHC really in the 3rd tier of CCS? They are a large private school who is a part of the WCAL. They should be in D2. All WCAL should be D1, the city schools and Mitty D2.

Here is the vid for the Bay Area News Group reporters for the past week’s preview. They tear apart the NCS system and say that it should be a lot more like the CCS. They are very right.

CCS playoffs > NCS playoffs

 

[FBAddict]

Why not just go full “competitive equity” and rank the teams 1-40 by CalPreps and build 5 brackets then.
I like placing teams in a competitive division, but a ceiling or a floor for enrollment helps. For example is SHC really in the 3rd tier of CCS? They are a large private school who is a part of the WCAL. They should be in D2. All WCAL should be D1, the city schools and Mitty D2.

You should really educate yourself before you spout off this nonsense.
1) CCS is nearly 100% competitive equity. Being private or public doesn't change the competitive equity of teams. (Your private/public argument would have merit if the divisions were based on enrollment instead of competitive equity. But they are not in CCSS)
2) Introducing enrollment and private/public factors moves playoff teams away from a true equity system.
3) Enrollment has very little bearing on strength. You prove it by your own arguments. A team loses to another team with nearly 1,000 less students. Another team beat their competitor having 600 more students. That was just 4 teams I looked at, but knowing generally the size of schools. CCS has the enrollment factors scattered throughout the CCS competitive equity scheme and enrollment seems to have no influence on who is winning and losing.