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SJS Round 2: Closest Ratings Match-Ups

MTsince2004

MTsince2004

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There are several 2nd round playoff match-ups that feature teams that are closely rated by calpresp.com. Any one of them should be really interesting to watch. In a couple of them, the visiting team may be favored by the algorithm (rating difference in parentheses):

D1
Inderkum (+2.2)
@ Monterey Trail

D2
Granite Bay (+3.2)
@ Manteca

Del Oro
@ Jesuit (+2.5)

D3
Merced
@Oakdale (+1.5)
 
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MTsince2004 said:
There are several 2nd round playoff match-ups that feature teams that are closely rated by calpresp.com. Any one of them should be really interesting to watch. In a couple of them, the visiting team may be favored by the algorithm (rating difference in parentheses):

D1
Inderkum (+2.2)
@ Monterey Trail

D2
Granite Bay (+3.2)
@ Manteca

Del Oro
@ Jesuit (+2.5)

D3
Merced
@Oakdale (+1.5)
Click to expand...
I'll throw Downey vs Rocklin (D2) into the mix too. In their first meeting, Tracy won handily without Downey's starting QB. The QB was back for the first round playoff game and beat Tracy handily. To me, the onus is on Downey's defense as the determining factor in the game. Rocklin vs Tracy was a tighter than expected game.
 
Macallan said:
I'll throw Downey vs Rocklin (D2) into the mix too. In their first meeting, Tracy won handily without Downey's starting QB. The QB was back for the first round playoff game and beat Tracy handily. To me, the onus is on Downey's defense as the determining factor in the game. Rocklin vs Tracy was a tighter than expected game.
Click to expand...
Yes, there are many good games. This is all about Cal Preps. I was just pointing out the ones that had the closest ratings.


Inderkum is favored by 9 points over Monterey Trail.

Granite Bay is favored by 4 points over Manteca.

Jesuit is favored by 4 points over Del Oro.

Oakdale is favored by 1 point over Merced.

By contrast, Rocklin is favored by 30 points over Downey. That's not to say that any of these predictions are locked in. Obviously, there are going to be all sorts of outcomes that defy prediction.
 
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Macallan said:
I'll throw Downey vs Rocklin (D2) into the mix too. In their first meeting, Tracy won handily without Downey's starting QB. The QB was back for the first round playoff game and beat Tracy handily. To me, the onus is on Downey's defense as the determining factor in the game. Rocklin vs Tracy was a tighter than expected game.
Click to expand...
The “final score” between Rocklin and Tracy in the first meeting was tighter than expected. But, Rocklin pretty much dominated this game and I believe they were up 28-0 before they let Tracy back into the game. Maybe Downey is a different team with their QB back. But, I think their defense was more the difference vs Tracy in the rematch. It wasn’t like Downey’s QB was lighting up the stats, but did make key plays when needed. Rocklin is a lot better than Tracy, both offense and defense. I don’t expect this game between Rocklin and Downey to be that close but 30 pt spread might be a bit much. Game has to be played on the field to confirm.
 
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MTsince2004 said:
Yes, there are many good games. This is all about Cal Preps. I was just pointing out the ones that had the closest ratings.


Inderkum is favored by 9 points over Monterey Trail.

Granite Bay is favored by 4 points over Manteca.

Jesuit is favored by 4 points over Del Oro.

Oakdale is favored by 1 point over Merced.

By contrast, Rocklin is favored by 30 points over Downey. That's not to say that any of these predictions are locked in. Obviously, there are going to be all sorts of outcomes that defy prediction.
Click to expand...
Rocklin is going to boat race Downey.
The others seem reasonable but I wouldn’t be surprised if MT wins.
 
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If I had to wager.

Monterey Trail prevails @ home
Granite Bay upsets Manteca
Jesuit pounds Del Oro Defense
Downey Qb 1 will have more sacks and int's, then completed passes.

Good luck to all the teams, underdog is just a term, make some memories!
 
Macallan said:
I'll throw Downey vs Rocklin (D2) into the mix too. In their first meeting, Tracy won handily without Downey's starting QB. The QB was back for the first round playoff game and beat Tracy handily. To me, the onus is on Downey's defense as the determining factor in the game. Rocklin vs Tracy was a tighter than expected game.
Click to expand...
To be fair Tracy’s QB got hurt in the 3rd quarter when the score was still only 13-10 and then they had to bring in their JV Qb to finish the game. I’d be surprised if Rocklin doesn’t win by two touchdowns.
 
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Santa Ball said:
If I had to wager.

Monterey Trail prevails @ home
Granite Bay upsets Manteca
Jesuit pounds Del Oro Defense
Downey Qb 1 will have more sacks and int's, then completed passes.

Good luck to all the teams, underdog is just a term, make some memories!
Click to expand...
Is Manteca favored to win? Calpreps I believe is projecting a 28-24 victory for GB. Sure, Manteca earned the #4 seed having the early season head to head victory vs GB, in a game that the Grizzlies were shutout 15-0. And this was with Manteca missing their bell cow Bryson Davis. However, it appears the Grizzlies have been playing better football lately with tough losses to Folsom and Rocklin. Rocklin manhandled Manteca (also without Bryson Davis). Manteca lost a tough game to Central Catholic and barely held on to win vs Oakdale. Guessing GB was without some key players in their first meeting with Manteca. In any case, this matchup IMHO is going to be tossup, but kinda leaning with Granite Bay based on how well they have been playing in the last few weeks. But, I wouldn’t be surprised if Manteca’s ground game out duels GB’s ground game. Not expecting too much in the air from either team.
 
Last year many expected #2 seed St. Mary’s to win big vs #7 seed Turlock. Didn’t happen. Rocklin is the #2 seed this year and #10 Downey beat the #7 seed Tracy. Could Downey pull off the shocker? Doubt it.

Could #9 Vacaville pull off even the bigger shocker vs #1 St. Mary’s? Doubt it even more so. Vacaville brings some size to this game and a balanced offense. The Rams have matching size. But, the Rams just have too much speed. Still, the games have to be played on the field.
 
Downey lost to Turlock 22-11. They went up 11-0 in the first half and then were shut down and outscored 22-0 for the rest of the game. I think they only had 4 first downs in the second half, and this is with their starting QB. Turlock played Rocklin in the first game of the season and lost 31-3. Calpreps shows Rocklin winning 38-8, and based on comparative games that could be realistic. I will be attending the Turlock - Oak Ridge game and Calprep is showing that one 35-14 Oak Ridge. This will be the 4th game between the schools in the playoffs in the last 6 years and most likely will end up like the others with an OR victory. Surprises can happen as no one expected Turlock to beat St. Marys last year but that win was followed by a 24 - 0 loss to Oak Ridge.
 
bulldogmgc said:
The “final score” between Rocklin and Tracy in the first meeting was tighter than expected. But, Rocklin pretty much dominated this game and I believe they were up 28-0 before they let Tracy back into the game. Maybe Downey is a different team with their QB back. But, I think their defense was more the difference vs Tracy in the rematch. It wasn’t like Downey’s QB was lighting up the stats, but did make key plays when needed. Rocklin is a lot better than Tracy, both offense and defense. I don’t expect this game between Rocklin and Downey to be that close but 30 pt spread might be a bit much. Game has to be played on the field to confirm.
Click to expand...

bulldogmgc said:
Tracy was down 14-7 and threw an interception to Rocklin in the end of the 2nd quarter. Rocklin went up 21-7 in the 3rd, but Tracy answered 21-14, then Rocklin scored 28-14 in the mid 4th qtr. Tracy again answered back 28-21. Rocklin never dominated.
Click to expand...
 
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Thanks for the correction! Okay, I think I recall someone else had shared that Rocklin was in full control and that the game was not as close as the final score reflected. My mistake thinking Rocklin dominated and had a 28-0 lead.
 
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While Tracy hung around in this game, it was clear Rocklin was in control....They were never threatened. yes I saw the game.
 
WWHS44 said:
While Tracy hung around in this game, it was clear Rocklin was in control....They were never threatened. yes I saw the game.
Click to expand...
Tracy was driving in the redzone and about to tie it up and threw an interception with 2-4 minutes in first half. Tracy defense had Rocklin on a 3rd and 16 in the 3rd qtr. the QB was able to find a receiver in the endzone. Turn those two plays Tracy's way and we would have an upset.
 
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M.C. fan said:
Tracy was driving in the redzone and about to tie it up and threw an interception with 2-4 minutes in first half. Tracy defense had Rocklin on a 3rd and 16 in the 3rd qtr. the QB was able to find a receiver in the endzone. Turn those two plays Tracy's way and we would have an upset.
Click to expand...
Rocklin also dropped 2 Ints and had a late hit out of bounds that extended a Tracy drive. You can point to many plays on both sides. The truth is it was 28-7. Tracy recovered an onside kick and proceeded to score. Then Rocklin fumbled and Tracy scored again. I was at the game. There was never a time in my opinion where I felt Rocklin was going to lose. Anyways on to playoffs! Hoping Downey vs Rocklin will be a close one. We will see Friday night!
 
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M.C. fan said:
Tracy was driving in the redzone and about to tie it up and threw an interception with 2-4 minutes in first half. Tracy defense had Rocklin on a 3rd and 16 in the 3rd qtr. the QB was able to find a receiver in the endzone. Turn those two plays Tracy's way and we would have an upset.
Click to expand...
if I won the lottery I'd be a millionaire! if, if ,if
 
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