Re: WCAL 2014 Prediction for WCAL 2014 League Finish
WCAL looks like it will be one of those years that there probably will be co-champs and can see 6-1 or 5-2 as what it will take. Like last season, 6-1 was what it took for co-championship and could see this season similar. With relative parity at the top 4 (VC, St Francis, Mitty and Serra) and a couple other teams as well that can knock off any of the above teams in a given week (SI and Bells), I don't see a team running the gauntlet which isn't very often in this league. The WCAL looks like it will be a battle and some teams will matchup better against others. Here's my take:
Top 4 battling for top position[/B]
Valley Christian[/B] ? Most complete team with experienced QB. If K. Johnson is healthy, the Warriors should be the favorite to win the WCAL. It will be tough for defenses to key on just Johnson as they bring back other talented skill players, and with him out last season have several returning players. Defense will need to step up to win the league, but they return talent on the defensive side as well and size on the lines. (Rank then as #1 ? probably favorite to win outright, but inconsistency and competitiveness of league could make this a co-championship year). Will be better than last season.
St Francis[/B] ? They will be very tough to run against, especially up the middle. Calcagno is a defensive focused coach and looks like SF is back to smash mouth football on both sides of the ball. Think they should also take Serra again (doesn't matter if at Serra home field or not ? SF in most years has Serra's number). My inkling is that transfer to Serra (QB Bishop) wouldn't have started at SF anyways, and Serra will lack experience at the position if they start a soph against SF. If Bishop wins starting Serra QB role, it also may take a little time to get rolling. Serra's run oriented offense wouldn't matchup against SF (Tokai, and the big SF LBS). SF offense may be boring this year, but should have just enough balance to keep teams honest and could control the ball for long stretches. (they should finish in the #1 or #2-3 tied position). Their offense is the only question mark as far as how potent it will be, but they look like they will be very tough to score on this year. I think they will have a tougher time stopping VC than any team, and probably lose another game. Should lose at least 2 games. Will be better than last season.
Serra [/B]? May start the season slow as far as maybe losing 2 out of three non-league, but actually think they could be competitive in the Notre Dame Sherman Oaks game. Serra isn't going to run the WCAL and early on they have risk of losing some games. I think they lose at least 2 games in league. They should have very good defense and will have some speed and good skill players, although QB position especially early on probably has them losing at least 2 games. Will not be as good as last season.
Mitty [/B]? Good core of talented players, but may lack some depth from last season due graduation losses of Evans and Ramirez. Will Foley play LB as well as QB? Either way, they lose some depth in impact players. I actually think they will not be as good as last season (but will have a couple impact players) and probably lose a couple games and maybe 3 in league. Coach has done a good job with that offense, but think defense will not be as good (although still very good) and offense will miss Evans and Ramirez (although have Monroe and Hudson, but still less to scheme against). I was wrong on Mitty last season as far as seeing them win WCAL, but doesn't seem they will do it this year. Will be good though and could knock off a top team if they have a good game. They will have a tough matchup against SF with the expected run defense and they have big LBs to cover a big TE. I think the Mitty loses at least two league games as well. Will not be as good as last season but a very good team.
Bottom 4[/B]
St Ig.[/B] SI will have threat of passing attack, but think they will be one dimensional against some of the better defenses above. They could knock off a team above in a game, but think they lose at least 3 WCAL games.
Bellamine [/B] Bells probably like last season and lose at least 3 league games, but could knock off a team in the top 4. Line may not be as physical as the top 4, but have some speed.
SHC[/B] Could win one of two games next season in WCAL, see SI and Bells, but probably not against a top 4. A good team though and balanced offense. Defense will have a tough time against the top 4.
Riordan[/B] Unfortunately they may not win a game in the WCAL but maybe a best ceiling at 2 games in league although they should be more competitive against SI, Bells and SHC. Surprise if they win more than 2 and they may not win any in league.
Overall, I think the WCAL is a 4 team race and may be tough for one team to win it outright. Dark horse is Saint Francis and i they can generate balance on their offense, they are going to be very tough with the defense. VC is the favorite. Serra and Mitty although both should be very good, neither looks to be as good as last season but still in the race. SI and Bells could break into the top 4 at the bottom (like #3 or 4 such as tied with the #3 and #4 positions), but most likely below the top 4. SHC may move up higher than Bells or SI, and Riordan probably is at the bottom, either alone or tied at the bottom if they get a win.
