WCAL Football 2018 - St. Francis vs Serra for league title Saturday 2 PM at Serra
"The Tale of the Tape"
In comparing the 2 teams on paper I was surprised by some of the disparities in stats which tell a different story than the overall scores shown below. SF has the #1 defense in the WCAL and the stats in that category are overwhelmingly in the Lancer's favor. While Serra has the #1 offense in WCAL some of the stats are surprising & telling at the same time. Serra survives on its passing game and SF has the superior rushing game - it is not even close in carries, yards gained or APC [average per carry]. It would seem as one poster pointed out [colhenry?], that Serra's O-Line is designed for pass protection and not necessarily capable of opening holes for the Padre RB's against a stout defense. Against Serra's 3 best opponents which all resulted in losses Serra's run game was essentially shut down. In those 3 games vs Serra -Gardena, Pitt & VC Serra's run game averages were 2.0, 1.3 & 1.5. In the SF win over VC the Lancers shut down the VC run game with the longest run allowed was 10 yards [this is not good news for the Padres]. Also Serra's pass game is primarily a short passing game with most yardage after the catch ["YAC"]. SF has proven to contain such short passes from becoming long gains & has an excellent secondary with Evan Williams & Maurice Wilmar who also play WR's on offense [also Matthew Craig who leads the team in INT's with 4]. Evan Williams is THE primary WR for SF and they will go to Williams with long passes on average 4 times per game.
Records: SF 8-1, Serra 6-3
Common Opponents:
SF 7-3 over VC, VC over Serra 37-6
SF 28-7 over Mitty, Serra 42-6 over Mitty
SF 14-0 over SHC, Serra 42-0 over SHC
SF 31-6 over S.I., Serra 50-14 over S.I.
SF 28-0 over Bells, Serra 43-0 over Bells
SF 38-0 over Riordan, Serra 57-6 over Riordan
In above games SF scored 146 points while allowing only 16
In above games Serra scored 240 points while allowing 57 points
Stats in head to head comparison:
Yards passing per game = SF 93 w/Daly & Serra 173
Completions per game = SF 6 & Serra 13
QB Completion percentage = SF 47% & Serra 70%
Yards rushing per game = SF 151 & Serra 131
TD's scored = SF 30 & Serra 42
QB Sacks = SF 30 & Serra 11
Interceptions = SF 13 & Serra 5
SF RB's = Bishop 81/492 for 6.1 APC & Fangupo 76/423 for 5.6 APC
Serra RB's = Sanchez 62/277 for 4.5 APC and Bottari 55/159 for 2.9 APC
Conclusion: Serra faces a tall challenge in this game to score against this Lancer defense. The SF "D" is entirely capable of shutting down Serra's run game forcing Bottari into passing more when Serra abandons the run. The SF defensive secondary is the best of WCAL teams with Williams, Wilmar & Craig and could blanket the Padre WR's.
Like I said it is going to be a challenge for Serra. Both teams have good coaching & coach Walsh of Serra will have to change things up a bit in terms of the "unexpected". SF with their top rusher Pakola will be harassing Bottari when he does drop back to pass. Serra's ability to pass is key to this game as the Lancer's will face the WCAL's leading passer. Whether Bottari gets time to pass or can deliver the ball to his WR's is another story. I do agree this will be a fairly low scoring game and perhaps a few big plays on special teams could make the difference. SF has given up 16 points in its last 6 games and highest allowed this season was 33 to DLS. If 2 teams in the league were twins those 2 teams would be SF & VC with the exception that SF has the better passing game. So Serra has seen VC and can expect a very similar team in SF. Serra will need to get a fast start in this game to gain some confidence & prevent SF from slowing down the pace and taking control.