It was bad as feared (or hoped for). Serra simply does not match up with the array of SF studs on both sides of the ball. Serra turnovers didn't help but SF clearly the stronger, deeper, more physical outfit. With a roster bulging with talent hailing from Pacifica and San Mateo to Fremont and Gilroy, the Lancers are loaded. Serra never really had much of chance, especially after a pair of early turnovers turned into SF scores. The Padres lack the necessary linemen. Pure speed and athleticism aren't enough.
WCAL Football 2018 - San Jose Merc All Bay Area Team
- Thread starter Rmbr26
- Start date
It was bad as feared (or hoped for). Serra simply does not match up with the array of SF studs on both sides of the ball. Serra turnovers didn't help but SF clearly the stronger, deeper, more physical outfit. With a roster bulging with talent hailing from Pacifica and San Mateo to Fremont and Gilroy, the Lancers are loaded. Serra never really had much of chance, especially after a pair of early turnovers turned into SF scores. The Padres lack the necessary linemen. Pure speed and athleticism aren't enough.
Time to holster any sort of reliance on point differential comparisons. Those can be notoriously bogus in the end.
[B said:
jordan - part of me wishes that had been the case simply to see how far the Lancers could have gone & if the DLS game would have been even closer. Having said that the SF QB Daly really looked good today and put the ball wherever he had to in most cases. I honestly don;t think there was much of a drop off between the 2 QB's if any.
This St. Francis team is very good.
Would like to see St Francis versus Menlo Atherton this year. I think the MA physicality would match up and they have some speed at skill. St Francis probably wins because MA is so inconsistent, but think it would be a pretty good game.
Actually all the talk of point differentials being meaningless is, well somewhat meaningless if you look at the direct comparables so to speak.
SF over VC 7-3 in defensive struggle [4-point differential].
VC over Serra 37-6 in blow-out [31-point differential].
SF over Serra 42-7 in blow-out [36-point differential].
The difference in the SF win over VC is 4 points.
The difference in SF & VC wins over Serra is a whopping 5 points.
For those who read my posts I stated VC & SF are close to "twin teams" and the result between SF & Serra could be similar if not worse than the VC-Serra game score. So take the difference in the SF-VC game and the difference in the 2 teams wins over Serra and there is a differential of 1-point. Scores Meaningless? I think not.
Freeman's rated SF a +4 favorite and my prior post indicated 14+ over Serra. Somehow I wish I was wrong on my projection. Now on to the playoffs and SF looks solid. How would VC-Wilcox play out in a rematch? How will VC perform in the post season playoffs? I still think SF's showing vs DLS was their best effort of season, but demolition of Serra was #2.
SF over VC 7-3 in defensive struggle [4-point differential].
VC over Serra 37-6 in blow-out [31-point differential].
SF over Serra 42-7 in blow-out [36-point differential].
The difference in the SF win over VC is 4 points.
The difference in SF & VC wins over Serra is a whopping 5 points.
For those who read my posts I stated VC & SF are close to "twin teams" and the result between SF & Serra could be similar if not worse than the VC-Serra game score. So take the difference in the SF-VC game and the difference in the 2 teams wins over Serra and there is a differential of 1-point. Scores Meaningless? I think not.
Freeman's rated SF a +4 favorite and my prior post indicated 14+ over Serra. Somehow I wish I was wrong on my projection. Now on to the playoffs and SF looks solid. How would VC-Wilcox play out in a rematch? How will VC perform in the post season playoffs? I still think SF's showing vs DLS was their best effort of season, but demolition of Serra was #2.
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Probably not, at least vs SF. Not entirely sure about a VC matchup. But SF just has too many talented horses.
Relying on point differentials is not meaningless. But they tend to be overrated. As a season goes along, players get hurt, adjustments are made and matchups become paramount. Serra does not match up with big physical teams that can pound on them on both sides of the ball. Even Elk Grove ran the ball very well in the first half vs. the Padres. An ill-advised EG pass and then two Rango kick returns turned that one around. EG was not prepared well. If they had stuck with their run game and read the scouting report about Rango that game might have been very close at the end.
Indeed there were. Pork and Padres were on the menu. It was not pretty. Not even close. Now we know for sure. The WCAL had four tiers in 2018: VC and SF; Serra; SHC, SI and Mitty; Riordan and Bellarmine.
With Bellarmine's loss to SI today, the Bells' 1-6 WCAL record becomes the worst at the school since 1993 when they won a single league game. That's 25 years, a full generation. This does not happen to the Bells very often. Thank you, Capt. Obvious, for that observation.
And that is a good example, but that I would say is the exception and not the norm.
There’s just to many factors involved. I just don’t love daisy chains because they can be spun and manipulated so much. But ultimately the game is played on the field. That’s why I said meaniness. Maybe not meaningless, but not a great indicator, otherwise Vegas would be out of business
And that is a good example, but that I would say is the exception and not the norm.
There’s just to many factors involved. I just don’t love daisy chains because they can be spun and manipulated so much. But ultimately the game is played on the field. That’s why I said meaniness. Maybe not meaningless, but not a great indicator, otherwise Vegas would be out of business
The actual eye-test may be the best predictor in the long run.
OK best post related to Serra's weak showing in today's contest. I agree w/colhenry the WCAL appears now of 4 tiers: SF & VC, Serra & SHC,Mitty & then S.I. & Bells, & last Riordan.
What I concluded prior to game and hoped would not happen did indeed happen - Serra was not as physical on both sides of the ball [and in the Padres defense this SF team is HUGE!]. Evan Williams scorched the Padres for 3 TD's which I mentioned could happen in several previous posts, yet no double coverage of Williams[?]. -What did the defensive coaches for Serra fail to see in watching the films of Evan Williams? Twice Williams scored on long TD passes simply by outrunning the Padres coverage for what appeared to be easy 60 yard TD's [and on recurring possessions which is somewhat inexcusable].
I did mention prior to game that Serra would need to "change it up on offense" to anything other than what the SF defense expected. The BAOSN game announcers in interviewed coach Walsh of Serra who stated "Serra would stick with what they were comfortable with on offense against St. Francis". Obviously in hind-site this was was probably not the best approach based upon the VC loss & facing a very similar team in SF [who beat that same VC team]. In going forward with the same game-plan as VC Serra was inviting disaster a 2nd time around which is what occurred today. Padres win streak over Lancers unfortunately over. Possibly some redemption for Padres remains in playoffs [if they can control turnovers/penalties that is..]. Adjustments to the Padre secondary coverage might be a consideration considering SF was completing less than 50% of passes prior to the Serra game with 4 TD's in 5 games [Evan Williams accounted for 3 TD's and well over 100 yards vs Serra].
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Bringing up JV players is one thing to consider if SF, VC and Serra are to advance deep in the playoffs. Everyone’s banged up this time of year and the incoming depth can potentially eliminate reducing playing time of 2-Way players and special teams. SF, VC and even Mitty clearly have the JV players that can bolster their rosters.
Agree with Rmbr. Based on this season’s WCAL results the teams should be broken down in these 4 tiers:
- SF and VC - Clearly the dominant teams
- Serra - defeated only one contender in Mitty
- Mitty* and SHC - only beat teams below them (Mitty loss to SI/Win vs. SHC a wash)
- SI, BCP and Riordan
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VC, SF and Serra varsity rosters already huge. Adding a few JV guys probably would make no difference at all.
Yes without looking up the rosters I believe VC, SF & Serra are all around 60 players or more. Hasn't it become tradition for these schools to bring up the better JV players for the post season playoffs anyway - simply as an "insurance policy" as well as to make them a part of the varsity experience since the JV season has ended?
On another note numerous remarks were made of the size of the SF players seemingly across their roster by positions.The BAOSN announcers joked about it throughout the game saying one HS coach said playing SF was like playing a college or pro team [in size]. One announcer followed it up by saying "Yes a lot of these SF players will be playing at a college next year AND starting". While Serra has some good size young men I don;t think I'd seen a HS other than maybe DLS with as many large bodies as this SF team. Its not just the size, but the size by position across the board.
OK couldn't resist, here are a few of the players whose names we heard over & over again yesterday on the SF side:
which will give you a good idea of the studs on the Lancer team:
* Joshua Pakola LB 6'2-255
* James Dinneen TE 6'4-240
* Opeti Fangupo RB 5'10-235
* Anthony Landphere LB 6'4-220
* Maurice Wilmar DB 6'2-205
* Nick Robinson RB 6'0-230 [used inside the red zone]
* Evan Williams WR/DB 6'0-190
* * 21 players over 225+ & of those 10 are over 250+ with a few 300+
For a quick comparison:
Serra has 14 players 225+ with 9 of those 250+
VC has 12 players 225+ with 7 of those 250+
Bellarmine has 5 players 225+ with 2 players 250+
On another note numerous remarks were made of the size of the SF players seemingly across their roster by positions.The BAOSN announcers joked about it throughout the game saying one HS coach said playing SF was like playing a college or pro team [in size]. One announcer followed it up by saying "Yes a lot of these SF players will be playing at a college next year AND starting". While Serra has some good size young men I don;t think I'd seen a HS other than maybe DLS with as many large bodies as this SF team. Its not just the size, but the size by position across the board.
OK couldn't resist, here are a few of the players whose names we heard over & over again yesterday on the SF side:
which will give you a good idea of the studs on the Lancer team:
* Joshua Pakola LB 6'2-255
* James Dinneen TE 6'4-240
* Opeti Fangupo RB 5'10-235
* Anthony Landphere LB 6'4-220
* Maurice Wilmar DB 6'2-205
* Nick Robinson RB 6'0-230 [used inside the red zone]
* Evan Williams WR/DB 6'0-190
* * 21 players over 225+ & of those 10 are over 250+ with a few 300+
For a quick comparison:
Serra has 14 players 225+ with 9 of those 250+
VC has 12 players 225+ with 7 of those 250+
Bellarmine has 5 players 225+ with 2 players 250+
I was sitting with the St. Francis parents and fans at the DLS game in Mountain View earlier this year and everyone in the stands were oohing and awwing at the size and height of the Spartans hoping their players would not get hurt.
Scary comparison thought.
Scary comparison thought.
Yes, and now Aragon, a very limited 2-8 public school, has the unhappy task of facing this loaded SF parochial unit in the CCS playoffs. The Dons are a neighborhood team in San Mateo. SF is not. SF has a roster stocked with guys from Pacifica, San Mateo, San Carlos, Fremont, Milpitas, Gilroy and beyond and, get this, Brentwood. Talk about apples and oranges this Friday night.
Moving forward, the Riordan QB was 18-36 for 255 yards in the first half against VC yesterday afternoon. That’s not a good showing by the VC defense headed into the playoffs. Hoping it was because they were getting backups playing time, but even then.....
Crusader O was only able to move the ball between the 20’s against the VC starters, but the Warrior defense denied the Crusaders from scoring. Soph qb, Ledbetter, got hurt in 1st half and Abdelghani played the 2nd half and tossed for its lone score to soph wr Whiley.
While I posted about the game getting away from Serra if they did not get out to a fast start, the the final score was still a bit shocking.
Someone posted that Friday nites match-up between M-A & SF might be a competitive game, but I’m not convinced of that. Looking at the DLS game as its only loss & the one-sided Serra game last week I would take SF & give M-A points as in 3-4 scores. Only way I would lose is if M-A d can stop Lancer’s offense. No one other than DLS has scored more than once against Lancers & Lancer’s will therefore outscore M-A, just a question of by how much. Only perplexing game for me was SF 14-0 over SHC which could give some hope to a physical M-A team. Thing is even if you hold the Lancer offense to just a score or 2 you still have to score against that very tough Lancer D.
Someone posted that Friday nites match-up between M-A & SF might be a competitive game, but I’m not convinced of that. Looking at the DLS game as its only loss & the one-sided Serra game last week I would take SF & give M-A points as in 3-4 scores. Only way I would lose is if M-A d can stop Lancer’s offense. No one other than DLS has scored more than once against Lancers & Lancer’s will therefore outscore M-A, just a question of by how much. Only perplexing game for me was SF 14-0 over SHC which could give some hope to a physical M-A team. Thing is even if you hold the Lancer offense to just a score or 2 you still have to score against that very tough Lancer D.
Again, comparing scores can be very misleading. M-A matches up well vs. SF. The rosters are quite similar in many ways. The eyeball test is instructive. When you watch them up close and personal, the similarities are striking. Two differences: League strength and M-A's occasional habit of putting roadblocks in its own path via self-inflicted mistakes. SF is a tighter ship in most respects.
If you recall, both SF and SHC qbs debuted. Both coaches played to their strengths - run game and defense and did not risk their qbs into potential turnovers.
Colhenry - while I respect your educated opinions I am not sure why you are thinking M-A could challenge the Lancer's in a game. In short their schedules are nothing alike and M-A has not really beaten any quality opponent. Here is the best case scenario based solely upon the SF-SHC game - SF 14-0 or similar over SHC as I think SHC & M-A match up very well. It was a close contest between M-A & Mitty and likely the same between M-A and the Irish. What I see from M-A's schedule is they had pummeled numerous teams of no ranking/ratings while losing to the only team of note in Palma - very similar to Serra's record - big scores but no real big wins. So this is why an encounter between M-A and SF the results = similar to Serra vs SF in a large score disparity.
WCAL Football 2018 - 1rst Round of CCS Playoffs
Friday - November 9th:
Open I Playoffs - Favored Team in BOLD
Milpitas vs Menlo-Atherton [easy win for M-A as Milpitas a shadow of the strong teams of recent years]
Los Gatos vs Palo Alto [LG will play tough in 1rst 1/2 before Paly takes over in 2nd 1/2]
San Benito vs Salinas [Salinas moves on with comfortable win over SB]
Piedmont Hills vs Wilcox [Another mismatch & possible running clock in 2nd 1/2].
Open II Playoffs
Mitty vs Oak Grove [Monarch's have enough in tank to pull this one out]
Serra vs Leland [Leland is NOT St. Francis & the Padres cruise]
Aragon vs St. Francis [Quite likely the Lancer JV team could take down this 2-8 Aragon team - terrible match-up..]
Christopher vs Valley Christian [VC shows why it is possibly the 2nd best team in CCS with steamroll of Christopher]
Open III Playoffs
Aptos vs Terra Nova [Aptos a very slight vaorite & one of the better games to watch]
Palma vs Pioneer [Another mismatch in which Palma ends all suspense early with large lead at the 1/2]
SHC vs Live Oak [Irish of SHC ever so slight favorite - Oops Irish were bigger favorite last season & gagged in a big time disappointment to underdog Live Oak. SHC this is your redemption - so no excuses about refs this time around & bad calls, this game is on the Irish, period. Fingers crossed Irish come thru 1rst round [3 Hail Mary's & 3 Our Father's].
IV Playoffs
Mt View vs Burlingame [Panthers smoke Mt View as expected]
Carlmont vs Willow Glen [Carlmont has enough to just get by Willow Glen & survive 1rst round]
Soledad vs Independence Independence is good this season & no problem dispatching Soledad]
Santa Clara vs Overfelt [Overfelt an overwhelming favorite & should cruise]
V Playoffs
Saratoga vs Gonzales [Gonzales a strong favorite but Saratoga has a sluggers chance]
Del Mar vs King's Academy [KA in cruise control over Del Mar]
Monterey vs Monte Vista Christian [Monterey should be able to survive 1rst round vs MVC]
Remaining Games Saturday Nov. 10th
St. Ignatius vs SHP [SHP the favorite, however I beg to differ with S.I. having the toughest overall schedule of entire CCS. Are the SF Wildcats "battle tested" or worn down from rigors of the tough WCAL gauntlet? I say S.I. answers the bell and comes out strong against SHP = UPSET!!
Mt. Pleasant vs Carmel [Mt. Pleasant gets one more game before vacationing until next season to recover]
Friday - November 9th:
Open I Playoffs - Favored Team in BOLD
Milpitas vs Menlo-Atherton [easy win for M-A as Milpitas a shadow of the strong teams of recent years]
Los Gatos vs Palo Alto [LG will play tough in 1rst 1/2 before Paly takes over in 2nd 1/2]
San Benito vs Salinas [Salinas moves on with comfortable win over SB]
Piedmont Hills vs Wilcox [Another mismatch & possible running clock in 2nd 1/2].
Open II Playoffs
Mitty vs Oak Grove [Monarch's have enough in tank to pull this one out]
Serra vs Leland [Leland is NOT St. Francis & the Padres cruise]
Aragon vs St. Francis [Quite likely the Lancer JV team could take down this 2-8 Aragon team - terrible match-up..]
Christopher vs Valley Christian [VC shows why it is possibly the 2nd best team in CCS with steamroll of Christopher]
Open III Playoffs
Aptos vs Terra Nova [Aptos a very slight vaorite & one of the better games to watch]
Palma vs Pioneer [Another mismatch in which Palma ends all suspense early with large lead at the 1/2]
SHC vs Live Oak [Irish of SHC ever so slight favorite - Oops Irish were bigger favorite last season & gagged in a big time disappointment to underdog Live Oak. SHC this is your redemption - so no excuses about refs this time around & bad calls, this game is on the Irish, period. Fingers crossed Irish come thru 1rst round [3 Hail Mary's & 3 Our Father's].
IV Playoffs
Mt View vs Burlingame [Panthers smoke Mt View as expected]
Carlmont vs Willow Glen [Carlmont has enough to just get by Willow Glen & survive 1rst round]
Soledad vs Independence Independence is good this season & no problem dispatching Soledad]
Santa Clara vs Overfelt [Overfelt an overwhelming favorite & should cruise]
V Playoffs
Saratoga vs Gonzales [Gonzales a strong favorite but Saratoga has a sluggers chance]
Del Mar vs King's Academy [KA in cruise control over Del Mar]
Monterey vs Monte Vista Christian [Monterey should be able to survive 1rst round vs MVC]
Remaining Games Saturday Nov. 10th
St. Ignatius vs SHP [SHP the favorite, however I beg to differ with S.I. having the toughest overall schedule of entire CCS. Are the SF Wildcats "battle tested" or worn down from rigors of the tough WCAL gauntlet? I say S.I. answers the bell and comes out strong against SHP = UPSET!!
Mt. Pleasant vs Carmel [Mt. Pleasant gets one more game before vacationing until next season to recover]
WCAL Football 2018 - SHC & S.I. in CCS Playoffs Div. III
Topic of SHC & St. Ignatius being in the CCS playoffs was discussed this morning on the Gary & Larry segment on KNBR Sports-Talk. Larry Kreuger who I believe went to S.I. was baffled how S.I. could get into the CCS playoffs with
a 3-7 record and even SHC with a 5-5 record. I listen to Sports-Talk daily throughout the day and Larry Kreuger is usually very knowledgeable on all bay area sports and often comments on the WCAL. This particular subject though was mystery to Larry. Kreuger mentioned that S.I. at 3-7 was going up against Live Oak at 8-2 and even worse SHC at 5-5 was going up against SHP at 9-1. SO Larry is def a pro-WCAL guy, but he said he feels both S.I. & SHC are going down. You hear that Irish & Wildcats??
First Up SHC vs Live Oak. SHC is #16 in CCS & Live Oak #17. The 2 teams are rated as about even with SHC's best win over S.I. and Live Oak has a win over a good Burlingame team. Of SHC's losses the 14-0 loss to SF a few weeks ago stands out as perhaps their best game and shows what their D is capable of. If the Irish Defense is up to the task it could spell trouble for Live Oak. Last year the 2 teams met in the 1rst round of Div. III as well with SHC being the clear favorite only to have the game slip away in the 2nd 1/2 losing to Live Oak by 28-21. It was a bad end to the season for the Irish and anyone on last years' team should remember it clearly. I'll touch a bit more on this but see SHC's young QB Dowling as the X-Factor. If there was ever motivation for redemption and returning the favor so to speak this game is it for the Irish.
As for St. Ignatius vs SHP the Gators from Menlo Park are a clear favorite with only one loss on the season. SHP is well coached, executes well and has some good athletes. SHP is #11 in CCS and S.I. moved up to #14 recently. SHP's best win is over Terra Nova while S.I.'s biggest win was over Mitty - Terra Nova & Mitty are rated about even. SHP also has a win over Burlingame as well. The key to the game is S.I.'s execution to match that of SHP and that S.I. plays well as a team avoiding penalties and costly turnovers. S.I. ended regular season with one of its best games a 34-0 shut-out of the Bells. S.I. defense will need to play well and not give up the big play to SHP and if so can win this game.
Topic of SHC & St. Ignatius being in the CCS playoffs was discussed this morning on the Gary & Larry segment on KNBR Sports-Talk. Larry Kreuger who I believe went to S.I. was baffled how S.I. could get into the CCS playoffs with
a 3-7 record and even SHC with a 5-5 record. I listen to Sports-Talk daily throughout the day and Larry Kreuger is usually very knowledgeable on all bay area sports and often comments on the WCAL. This particular subject though was mystery to Larry. Kreuger mentioned that S.I. at 3-7 was going up against Live Oak at 8-2 and even worse SHC at 5-5 was going up against SHP at 9-1. SO Larry is def a pro-WCAL guy, but he said he feels both S.I. & SHC are going down. You hear that Irish & Wildcats??
First Up SHC vs Live Oak. SHC is #16 in CCS & Live Oak #17. The 2 teams are rated as about even with SHC's best win over S.I. and Live Oak has a win over a good Burlingame team. Of SHC's losses the 14-0 loss to SF a few weeks ago stands out as perhaps their best game and shows what their D is capable of. If the Irish Defense is up to the task it could spell trouble for Live Oak. Last year the 2 teams met in the 1rst round of Div. III as well with SHC being the clear favorite only to have the game slip away in the 2nd 1/2 losing to Live Oak by 28-21. It was a bad end to the season for the Irish and anyone on last years' team should remember it clearly. I'll touch a bit more on this but see SHC's young QB Dowling as the X-Factor. If there was ever motivation for redemption and returning the favor so to speak this game is it for the Irish.
As for St. Ignatius vs SHP the Gators from Menlo Park are a clear favorite with only one loss on the season. SHP is well coached, executes well and has some good athletes. SHP is #11 in CCS and S.I. moved up to #14 recently. SHP's best win is over Terra Nova while S.I.'s biggest win was over Mitty - Terra Nova & Mitty are rated about even. SHP also has a win over Burlingame as well. The key to the game is S.I.'s execution to match that of SHP and that S.I. plays well as a team avoiding penalties and costly turnovers. S.I. ended regular season with one of its best games a 34-0 shut-out of the Bells. S.I. defense will need to play well and not give up the big play to SHP and if so can win this game.
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I heard that segment today at lunchtime too. Lol! Also Krueger (an SI grad in the 80’s) mention of Riordan hoops players - Terrence Mullins, Chris Munk and Erik Newman; SI Players Levi Middlebrooks and SH’s Kevin Gogan and Eric White. Gary commented about the Crusader Forum now with Kevin Restani’s name on the court as his son plays AAU ball there.
[B said:
Very good jordan & thanks for the additional input as I forgot about the rest of their discussion after Larry said he thought the Irish & Wildcats were both going down. Yes talking about the hoops greats who came out of the SF schools among others & how the court was replaced at Riordan by alumni where players used to be blinded by the sun thru windows while playing, funny the stuff we all remember...
And, of course, there is also the eminent Bob Fitzgerald who never misses a chance to refer to his Serra roots. The Padres, by the way, currently have three guys in the NFL: Dickerson, Bahktiari and some guy named Brady.
Completely lost track of Matt Dickerson of Serra after he was injured prior to his senior season and missed entire season - I was very much disappointed by that fact at the time. I knew he committed to UCLA, but never saw much about him during his college career during which time he did not start until senior year. At 6'5-290 he is quite a specimen for a D-end though signed with Tennessee Titans as an unrestricted free agent - I guess they saw something they liked. Anything you can add colhenry? Oh & also BTW what about Bahktiari's brother a rather large man as well who played football at Burlingame High [for those unaware the Bahktiari out of Serra has been an offensive lineman for Green Bay Packers for last several years].
As you recall, Dickerson could not play during his senior year at Serra. He suffered a back injury that took many months to heal. He was set to go to Notre Dame but a family situation caused him to bail out of that commitment and enroll closer to home at UCLA. Bahktiari's brother got tryouts with several NFL teams, including the Niners, but could not stick.
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Fitz will be sure to mention his Irish and Padre ties within 5 minutes of any broadcast. Also, not afraid to name drop at any time. his lapdog mentions are tiring.
Fitz interviewed Riordan grad, Eric Wright, when he signed with the Niners a few years ago and Fitz baited him about the Padres football dominance and Wright came back and said "Our team never lost to the Padres." Crickets from Fitz...Classic.
[B said:
jordan - unless I'm confusing Eric Wright with another RB from Riordan I was at the Serra-Riordan game with the speedy Riordan RB Eric Wright & it was at Serra. As I remember Serra won the game and bottled Wright up. The final score was not pretty either...
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