So, if Carmel were to defeat Salinas again, would critics argue that the Padres could not beat the Cowboys a third time? A fourth time? Where does it end?
CCS Play-off Projections After Week 10 - Final going into Sunday meeting
- Thread starter PALbooster
- Start date
Come on brother. don't pull a, you know who with the, "if we played them again we would win" comment. I have ZERO doubt, if they played again, that CHS would come out on top. The team I have been watching this year took it up another level on Saturday at good ol Bardarson Field. Like I told coach Golden, it was a thing of beauty. Their defense has finally caught up to the playing level of their offense. I had posted earlier this year that I thought Salinas was going to easily be the best team in the county this year with what they had coming back. Big fan. But, no, I do not believe CHS would lose in a rematch. Baring any major injuries of course.
While I agree if healthy they could compete and maybe even win the D3 title, I disagree that he (Coach Anderson) would send the wrong message to the kids and parents. This man has built a fantastic program at CHS. The kids love playing for him and the parents respect him. No matter what decision he makes he will not alienate his team, just maybe a few posters on here.
Well that is good to hear. Just to be clear I wasn’t saying that that’s how they should feel if they don’t opt up, only worrying that he may get some of that sentiment from players and/or parents. It’s refreshing to hear about a program where the parents respect the coach and let him do his thing.
Fair enough... but I don't think we're going to find out much about the Padres until they play Alisal. To me, that's their benchmark game due to how the Trojans played Terra Nova. Right now, I see CCS Open D-III as:
1. Terra Nova
2. Aptos
3. Palma
If Valley Christian drops down to D-III, then:
1. VC
2. Terra Nova
3. Aptos
4. Palma
Pounding Scotts Valley or King City tells me absolutely nothing. They're supposed to pound those teams. Alisal isn't bad and they played a decent game against TN. If Carmel also blasts, the Trojans, then maybe I can see them opt up. If not, then I don't.
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You think they would choose not to opt up because they might have to play Live Oak in the first round?
No, the critics wouldn't argue that. I just believe that the ceiling for Salinas is higher than that of Carmel and the gap in-between them wasn't very large in the first place.
I'm predicting Live Oak to lose to Oak Grove in the final week of the season. I believe Terra Nova will beat Menlo-Atherton. Right now, I have to acknowledge that Aptos is probably the #1 team in the PC-GD. I think the top seed will probably be either TN or Aptos.
If Valley Christian drops to D-III, I don't see Carmel even considering it.
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Where are you getting these numbers from? Did the CCS change how it calculates power points? Because if they did not then I have Carmel at 25.5 (10 wins for 20 points, 1 for playing an A league team, and 4.5 for playing 9 B league teams) plus however many points they would get for winning their league. Salinas also has a shot at winning the Gabilan, which would be an additional 0.3-1 point.
In other words, if Carmel wins the Mission it would literally be impossible for them to end up with only 18.5 power points.
You're right. For some reason, I was tabulating the wins as 1.0 pts. B League champs get 2.0 pts. (A gets 2.5 and C gets 1.5).
This would put them as a 4 or 5 seed. D-III will arguably be better than D-I this year.
Now we are arguing ceiling height? Carmel came into Salinas as the underdog by a wide margin, went into halftime with momentum and the lead favoring Salinas, at The PIT, and dominated the 2nd half. They have also improved and rounded their game since, with many of the 2nd and 3rd stringers gaining playing time and confidence. I don't see any basis to assume Salinas has made up that much ground just yet, and it's a moot point anyway as they won't play again this season.
One question I have about Carmel is why are they not getting the ball to Ward more? I think he should be having more touches.
831- I think it just goes to show you how many weapons they do have. Cal 14- you are a Salinas follower- which is great- every team has them- but as a neutral observer of high school football I'm a little amused by your statement that Salinas has a" higher ceiling". Just exactly what do you mean? Just curious
This season is starting to play out a little like last year. Salinas took some lumps, but has started to correct some things. This is already evident. Even up to the Milpitas game, they weren't pass protecting very well. Against Palma, though, I believe they only yielded one sack.
The next test may be Hollister... they need to win that going away like last year. The final regular season game against Aptos will determine if they're really close to last year. The Mariners look really good this year and I still consider them the league's favorite.
Carmel, on the other hand, did well to get the win in week 1, but that won't necessarily tell us much come week 10. It rarely does. In the meantime, they're only going to face one more team that can even challenge them (Alisal). Do you think their league will really prep them for the D-III playoffs? I don't.
People are often fooled into thinking that a team is really turning it on, when the reality could very easily be the fact that their competition has dropped off a cliff. That has happened so far here. We don't know whether the Padres have actually grown much because NMC, King City, and Scotts Valley just aren't good teams. King City lost 28-0 to Christopher, who may not even finish in the top 4 in the Gabilan.
Salinas will have more likely learned a lot more about their team so far than the Padres with games against Clovis, Milpitas, and Palma. That will pay off for the Cowboys later in the year. A bigger enrollment/squad also gives them more options in terms of personnel (particularly if there is an injury). Carmel won't have that luxury, as has been exhibited in the past. There's only so much you can do with a smaller squad and it's a long season.
Salinas started running better against the Trojans and it carried on against the Chieftains. Neither Carmel nor Salinas really ran the ball well in their game, but the Padres really haven't been challenged since. Are they just better now or were they just that much better than their competition. Teams they'd face in the D-III playoffs will be a lot more like Salinas and if they suddenly find their running game disappear again against them... that's just not going to get it done.
The Cowboys still have a lot of work to do to prove they can compete against Wilcox and Palo Alto, who I think are the top dogs in D-I. I think they're starting to move in that direction and they've demonstrated they've done it before. We've not seen Carmel do the same.
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I love that Monterey County teams are "high jacking" a thread. Almost makes me feel like a DSL or Folsom fan.
Simply put teams have been doubling Ward leaving Melcher and/or Mornhinweg one on one with a linebacker. There are very few if any LB's that can keep up with that speed. Those three are fast, the QB (Lee) has a year under his belt and is doing a great job of distributing the ball to the best option.
CAL you make some great points here, the fact of the matter was that Carmel was more prepared to beat Salinas. IMO Salinas was not prepared for the speed the Padres have and were unable to make the proper adjustments. The Cowboys have already stopped playing their big boys both ways all the time, they were gased during the Carmel game. That adjustment alone would help them in a re-match.
I agree Carmel's SOS and League are not the greatest, they can't necessary control all of that. I like the fact they kept long time rivals PG and King City on the schedule. Unfortunately both those programs are a bit down. But they did schedule the defending CCS DIV I champs and won.
Carmel will not be able to prove they have a higher ceiling unless they go through the DIII playoffs. That is still unknown, and in my opinion unlikely. So for now they will have to just play who is in front of them, get better every week, and keep the "Shoe" in Carmel, where it belongs.
Carmel beat your Cowboys, on their home turf, convincingly. They won't play again this season under any circumstances, so I don't get your point? Carmel won't play in D1 if they opt up, they'll play in DIII, which will likely be a tougher bracket top to bottom than D1. All us local fans would like to see that and we'd see how the Padres line up with CCS top-tier schools with a similar enrollment. The rest is just conjecture, just like the endless discussion about "what if" DLS played Folsom again. They played, Carmel won. I hope you guys smash it through the rest of the season, in particular after the way last season ended. I think we all take pride when any Peninsula area teams can compete at the State Bowl level. Good luck the rest of the way!
Here's the question: What more can Carmel do? It handled Salinas right off the bat and continues to deal with a schedule made almost a year ago. Good for them. Carmel is not a football factory. It does not have a large enrollment. It's not a charter school or a private school. It's a neighborhood school. Let the Padres do what they do and celebrate it if they succeed. There are no allegations of cheating. What's not to like for crying out loud?
Yeah I like how many people are engaged from the 831 right now. What ever happened to mbaypreps message boards or am I the only one who remembers that?
Hey PAL Booster, in the article regarding SLV forfeiting, it was mentioned that the auto-berths for the PCAL are (4) Gabilan; (3) Mission (1) Cypress; & (1) Santa Lucia.
That allocation is the first I heard of it. Do you know if the stated allocation is correct? How does that change the D4 & D5 playoff scenario?
I saw that article as well and did a little digging. The By-Laws for the new league assign 3 of the four automatic spots to the Mission and only one to the Cypress. I will make the adjustments in this weeks projections.
SLV still controls their own destiny, but one more loss will likely eliminate them. They are probably the 3rd or 4th best team in their division, so this may not end up having any impact at all.
Have you seen Carmel play this year? I agree the competition is weaker than the Gav, that's why 1 is an A league and the other a B league, but just because their competition does not compare, does not mean the Padres cannot improve. They may not have as big of a roster as Salas, but their roster is by no means small. They have plenty of weapons to go around. Either way, it was settled on the field and that's the only way to prove which team is better. And it was at the Pit, which I believe, is the toughest place to play at since the fans are literally right over the players.
That board use to be on fire back in the day. Unfortunately it got a little too heated and the owner decided to do away with it and created another format. But, dang that was some fun banter back and forth, especially during rivalry week!!
Hit up any games tonight in your neck of the woods? See the SJB vs JSerra score? Crazy.
I was in Utah all week, so I decided to spend the evening with the g-friend. I did listen to the Salinas-Alvarez demoli... er, game for a while. I'm catching up on scores right now.
CCS Play-off projections after Week 5
We are half way through the season and it was a week without major surprises.
Only changes from last week were Los Gatos and San Benito switching the 3 and 4 seeds in Division I based on Milpitas’s win over Los Gatos. Lincoln’s slight upset over Pioneer moves Pioneer from a tie for the 5thseed in Division III to the sixth seed.
Projections
Division I
8. Bellarmine 3-7 18 vs. 1. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 29
5. Milpitas 6-4 21.5 vs 4. Los Gatos 6-4 22
6. Piedmont Hills 4-6 19 vs 3. San Benito 5-5 22
7. Cupertino 5-5 18.5 vs 2. Salinas 7-3 25.5
Smallest CBed – Los Gatos 2062
Division II
8. Christopher 5-5 21 vs 1. Wilcox 10-0 33
5. Oak Grove 7-3 25 or Valley Christian 7-3 25 vs 4. Oak Grove 7-3 25 or Valley Christian 7-3 25
6. Serra 7-3 24 vs 3. Palo Alto 9-1 30
7. Mitty 6-4 23.5 vs 2. St. Francis 9-1 31
Smallest CBed – Valley Christian 1629
Division III
8. Saint Ignatius 3-7 17 vs 1. Live Oak 10-0 32.5
5. Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 26 vs 4.Terra Nova 9-1 27.5 or Palma 8-2 27.5
6. Pioneer 7-3 24 vs 3. Terra Nova 9-1 27.5 or Palma 8-2 27.5
7. Half Moon Bay 5-5 19 vs 2. Aptos 10-0 31
Largest CBed – Pioneer 1619
At-Large Projections
1.Christopher 5-5 21
2.Cupertino 5-5 18.5
3.Bellarmine 3-7 18
4.Saint Ignatius 3-7 17 or Leland 3-7 17
5.Others: Sacred Heart Cathedral 3-7 16.5, Menlo 3-7 16.5; Aragon 2-8 16, Gilroy 2-8 15.5
DeAnza
Wilcox beat Palo Alto 35-21 in a game between the leagues top two rated teams. Wilcox still has games with Los Gatos this week and Milpitas down the road but will be a decided favorite in both games. Milpitas edged Los Gatos this past week which should give them third place. Cupertino which is 4-1 gets their first test against top rated competition this week when they face Palo Alto. No change in the projection of Wilcox winning the league and Palo Alto, Milpitas and Los Gatos getting the remaining three automatic berths. Cupertino should get an at-large berth.
Mount Hamilton
Live Oak and Oak Grove have emerged as the leagues top two teams with a week 10 showdown for the league championship. Lincoln is 2-0 in league but opts out of the play-off. So while they are likely to finish in the top 4 of the league they will opt out of their automatic berth. The middle of the league is still unclear. Westmont and Santa Teresa by default seem like the bottom two team leaving the third and fourth automatic spots between Pioneer, Piedmont Hills, and Leland. The Pioneer vs Leland game this week should begin to sort this out.
Gabilan
San Benito’s win over Christopher likely decided fourth place for this league. Aptos and Salinas are the leagues lone undefeated teams and will face off in week 10. No change in projections for this league with Aptos predicted as league champion with Salinas, Palma and San Benito getting automatic berths and Christopher getting an at-large berth. Alvarez, Gilroy and Seaside are all struggling against the higher ranked teams in the league.
PAL-Bay
League play opened last week with Menlo-Atherton shutting out Aragon 41-0. This week will see all six teams playing in league play. This weeks Terra Nova vs Menlo-Atherton game will likely determine the league championship. Sacred Heart Prep seems positioned for third place. The final automatic berth will be between Menlo School, Half Moon Bay and Aragon. Aragon will be unlikely to be an at-large team while Menlo or Half Moon Bay coming of off 3-2 non-league records would have a chance for an at-large berth by finishing fifth in the league.
WCAL
No surprises here either in the final results. Valley Christian will face-off with St. Francis next week between undefeated teams in league with St. Francis being a solid favorite. The biggest game of the week will likely be between Sacred Heart Cathedral and Saint Ignatius. While SI is winless they are ranked slightly higher in the Calpreps computer record. The winner of this game will be well positioned for finishing 5thin the league.
There were more changes to the Division IV and V play-off projections. St. Francis of Watsonville dropped out based on their loss to King City and Monta Vista moved slightly behind Saratoga in the rankings (the two play this week in a game which will likely determine the second play-off spot in the El Camino league). Saratoga and North Monterey County moved into the field. This change moved Burlingame up to Division IV.
Division IV
8. Evergreen Valley 7-3 16.5 vs 1. Overfelt 10-0 29
5. Santa Clara 7-3 22.5 vs 4. Alisal 7-3 23
6. Carlmont 8-2 21 or Silver Creek 7-3 21 vs 3. Independence 9-1 25
7. Carlmont 8-2 21 or Silver Creek 7-3 21 vs 2. Burlingame 8-2 26
Smallest CBed - Burlingame 1423
Division V
8. Saratoga 6-4 18.5 vs 1. Carmel 10-0 27.5
5. Del Mar 8-2 22.5 vs 4. Gonzales 10-0 23
6. Scotts Valley 7-3 21 vs 3. Kings Academy 8-2 24
7. North Monterey County 7-3 20.5 vs 2. Monterey 9-1 25
Highest CBed – Saratoga 1343
At-Large Teams
Del Mar 8-2 22.5
Silver Creek 7-3 21
North Monterey County 7-3 20.5
Next: Monta Vista 7-3 20, Watsonville 6-4 18.5
El Camino
Santa Clara is the favorite to win out and win the league title. It should be a battle for second place but this weeks winner between Saratoga and Monta Vista will be well positioned for that spot. Monta Vista would be on the bubble if they finish the league in third place.
Cypress
Even though this is a B league they only get one automatic berth as the Pacific Coast assigned three of their five automatic spots to the Mission League and one each to the Cypress and the C league Santa Lucia league. Monterey is a strong favorite to get the lone play-off spot. Whoever finishes second should have a chance to get an at-large berth. North Monterey County will be a slight favorite over King City, San Lorenzo Valley and St. Francis of Watsonville and will need to win out to get a potential at-large berth.
Mission
Carmel is a heavy favorite to win the league and Alisal should finish second after a close victory over Scotts Valley. This league gets three automatic berths and Scotts Valley will be a slight favorite over Watsonville, North Salinas and Monte Vista Christian for the final spot.
Ocean
Burlingame and Kings Academy seem far ahead of the rest of the league. They will play each other on October 19thwith the winner likely to win the league. Based on poor pre-seasons the remaining teams will not have a chance for an at-large spot.
Santa Teresa
Three teams remain undefeated in this league (Del Mar, Independence and Overfelt)and are all favored next week. Overfelt is still the slight favorite to win the league over Independence. Del Mar and Silver Creek are projected as At-Large teams,
Lake
Woodside opened league play with a slight upset over Jefferson. The lone play-off spot should go to Carlmont over Capuchino and Woodside.
Santa Lucia
Gonzales should win going away without much of a challenge.
West Valley
Should be a competitive league with Evergreen Valley and Prospect having a slight edge.
We are half way through the season and it was a week without major surprises.
Only changes from last week were Los Gatos and San Benito switching the 3 and 4 seeds in Division I based on Milpitas’s win over Los Gatos. Lincoln’s slight upset over Pioneer moves Pioneer from a tie for the 5thseed in Division III to the sixth seed.
Projections
Division I
8. Bellarmine 3-7 18 vs. 1. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 29
5. Milpitas 6-4 21.5 vs 4. Los Gatos 6-4 22
6. Piedmont Hills 4-6 19 vs 3. San Benito 5-5 22
7. Cupertino 5-5 18.5 vs 2. Salinas 7-3 25.5
Smallest CBed – Los Gatos 2062
Division II
8. Christopher 5-5 21 vs 1. Wilcox 10-0 33
5. Oak Grove 7-3 25 or Valley Christian 7-3 25 vs 4. Oak Grove 7-3 25 or Valley Christian 7-3 25
6. Serra 7-3 24 vs 3. Palo Alto 9-1 30
7. Mitty 6-4 23.5 vs 2. St. Francis 9-1 31
Smallest CBed – Valley Christian 1629
Division III
8. Saint Ignatius 3-7 17 vs 1. Live Oak 10-0 32.5
5. Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 26 vs 4.Terra Nova 9-1 27.5 or Palma 8-2 27.5
6. Pioneer 7-3 24 vs 3. Terra Nova 9-1 27.5 or Palma 8-2 27.5
7. Half Moon Bay 5-5 19 vs 2. Aptos 10-0 31
Largest CBed – Pioneer 1619
At-Large Projections
1.Christopher 5-5 21
2.Cupertino 5-5 18.5
3.Bellarmine 3-7 18
4.Saint Ignatius 3-7 17 or Leland 3-7 17
5.Others: Sacred Heart Cathedral 3-7 16.5, Menlo 3-7 16.5; Aragon 2-8 16, Gilroy 2-8 15.5
DeAnza
Wilcox beat Palo Alto 35-21 in a game between the leagues top two rated teams. Wilcox still has games with Los Gatos this week and Milpitas down the road but will be a decided favorite in both games. Milpitas edged Los Gatos this past week which should give them third place. Cupertino which is 4-1 gets their first test against top rated competition this week when they face Palo Alto. No change in the projection of Wilcox winning the league and Palo Alto, Milpitas and Los Gatos getting the remaining three automatic berths. Cupertino should get an at-large berth.
Mount Hamilton
Live Oak and Oak Grove have emerged as the leagues top two teams with a week 10 showdown for the league championship. Lincoln is 2-0 in league but opts out of the play-off. So while they are likely to finish in the top 4 of the league they will opt out of their automatic berth. The middle of the league is still unclear. Westmont and Santa Teresa by default seem like the bottom two team leaving the third and fourth automatic spots between Pioneer, Piedmont Hills, and Leland. The Pioneer vs Leland game this week should begin to sort this out.
Gabilan
San Benito’s win over Christopher likely decided fourth place for this league. Aptos and Salinas are the leagues lone undefeated teams and will face off in week 10. No change in projections for this league with Aptos predicted as league champion with Salinas, Palma and San Benito getting automatic berths and Christopher getting an at-large berth. Alvarez, Gilroy and Seaside are all struggling against the higher ranked teams in the league.
PAL-Bay
League play opened last week with Menlo-Atherton shutting out Aragon 41-0. This week will see all six teams playing in league play. This weeks Terra Nova vs Menlo-Atherton game will likely determine the league championship. Sacred Heart Prep seems positioned for third place. The final automatic berth will be between Menlo School, Half Moon Bay and Aragon. Aragon will be unlikely to be an at-large team while Menlo or Half Moon Bay coming of off 3-2 non-league records would have a chance for an at-large berth by finishing fifth in the league.
WCAL
No surprises here either in the final results. Valley Christian will face-off with St. Francis next week between undefeated teams in league with St. Francis being a solid favorite. The biggest game of the week will likely be between Sacred Heart Cathedral and Saint Ignatius. While SI is winless they are ranked slightly higher in the Calpreps computer record. The winner of this game will be well positioned for finishing 5thin the league.
There were more changes to the Division IV and V play-off projections. St. Francis of Watsonville dropped out based on their loss to King City and Monta Vista moved slightly behind Saratoga in the rankings (the two play this week in a game which will likely determine the second play-off spot in the El Camino league). Saratoga and North Monterey County moved into the field. This change moved Burlingame up to Division IV.
Division IV
8. Evergreen Valley 7-3 16.5 vs 1. Overfelt 10-0 29
5. Santa Clara 7-3 22.5 vs 4. Alisal 7-3 23
6. Carlmont 8-2 21 or Silver Creek 7-3 21 vs 3. Independence 9-1 25
7. Carlmont 8-2 21 or Silver Creek 7-3 21 vs 2. Burlingame 8-2 26
Smallest CBed - Burlingame 1423
Division V
8. Saratoga 6-4 18.5 vs 1. Carmel 10-0 27.5
5. Del Mar 8-2 22.5 vs 4. Gonzales 10-0 23
6. Scotts Valley 7-3 21 vs 3. Kings Academy 8-2 24
7. North Monterey County 7-3 20.5 vs 2. Monterey 9-1 25
Highest CBed – Saratoga 1343
At-Large Teams
Del Mar 8-2 22.5
Silver Creek 7-3 21
North Monterey County 7-3 20.5
Next: Monta Vista 7-3 20, Watsonville 6-4 18.5
El Camino
Santa Clara is the favorite to win out and win the league title. It should be a battle for second place but this weeks winner between Saratoga and Monta Vista will be well positioned for that spot. Monta Vista would be on the bubble if they finish the league in third place.
Cypress
Even though this is a B league they only get one automatic berth as the Pacific Coast assigned three of their five automatic spots to the Mission League and one each to the Cypress and the C league Santa Lucia league. Monterey is a strong favorite to get the lone play-off spot. Whoever finishes second should have a chance to get an at-large berth. North Monterey County will be a slight favorite over King City, San Lorenzo Valley and St. Francis of Watsonville and will need to win out to get a potential at-large berth.
Mission
Carmel is a heavy favorite to win the league and Alisal should finish second after a close victory over Scotts Valley. This league gets three automatic berths and Scotts Valley will be a slight favorite over Watsonville, North Salinas and Monte Vista Christian for the final spot.
Ocean
Burlingame and Kings Academy seem far ahead of the rest of the league. They will play each other on October 19thwith the winner likely to win the league. Based on poor pre-seasons the remaining teams will not have a chance for an at-large spot.
Santa Teresa
Three teams remain undefeated in this league (Del Mar, Independence and Overfelt)and are all favored next week. Overfelt is still the slight favorite to win the league over Independence. Del Mar and Silver Creek are projected as At-Large teams,
Lake
Woodside opened league play with a slight upset over Jefferson. The lone play-off spot should go to Carlmont over Capuchino and Woodside.
Santa Lucia
Gonzales should win going away without much of a challenge.
West Valley
Should be a competitive league with Evergreen Valley and Prospect having a slight edge.
So since cypress only gets 1 automatic qualifier what happens in the event of co-champion? Would head to head be the first deciding factor?
While it wouldn't be a shock if Serra beats St. Francis for the WCAL championship and finishes 8-2 but as of now St. Francis is still seen as a slight favorite based on season performance to date. Calpreps rates St. francs at 46.6 and Serra at 41.3 meaning on a neutral field St. Francis would be a 5 point favorite.
It is interesting to note that in week 1 Serra lost to Serra of Gardena 41-22 and St. Francis beat Notre Dame of Sherman Oaks 23-12. While a lot has changed over five weeks, this past week Notre Dame beat Serra of Gardena 35-7. It has been reported that St. Francis my have lost their QB, but irregardless, the St. Francis defense has been formable this season.
Even if Serra beats St. Francis they will probably end up with 27.5 points (28.5 if Pittsburgh beats Liberty to win their league) and would still be a likely 3rd seed behind Wilcox, Palo Alto. With a loss St. Francis would likely also have 27.5 points (wild get to 28.5 if Oak Grove beats Live Oak for the Mt. Hamilton league championship). It is also still possible that Palo Alto and/or Wilcox could be moved up to Division I which will improve Serra's seeding. But if Serra ends up 7-3 by losing to St. Francis they well could be a 6 seed in the Division 2 playoffs.
It is interesting to note that in week 1 Serra lost to Serra of Gardena 41-22 and St. Francis beat Notre Dame of Sherman Oaks 23-12. While a lot has changed over five weeks, this past week Notre Dame beat Serra of Gardena 35-7. It has been reported that St. Francis my have lost their QB, but irregardless, the St. Francis defense has been formable this season.
Even if Serra beats St. Francis they will probably end up with 27.5 points (28.5 if Pittsburgh beats Liberty to win their league) and would still be a likely 3rd seed behind Wilcox, Palo Alto. With a loss St. Francis would likely also have 27.5 points (wild get to 28.5 if Oak Grove beats Live Oak for the Mt. Hamilton league championship). It is also still possible that Palo Alto and/or Wilcox could be moved up to Division I which will improve Serra's seeding. But if Serra ends up 7-3 by losing to St. Francis they well could be a 6 seed in the Division 2 playoffs.
PALBooster, I would agree with your above post, but I understand SF’s starting qb, Perry, is out with a season ending injury. The Lancer D is outstanding, but they still need to score points to even have a chance against the Padres.
CCS Play-off projections after Week 6
Some consequential games from week 6 changed a number of teams in the projected field
In went Menlo, Sacred Heart Cathedral, and Leland Out came Saint Ignatius, Bellarmine, Half Moon Bay. Menlo-Atherton solidified their role as favorite in the Pal Bay. The Mt. Hamilton winner is now projected as Oak Grove following Live Oaks 49-41 upset loss to Piedmont Hills. These changes pushed Palo Alto back into Division I.
Projections
Division I
8. Cupertino 5-5 18.5 vs. 1. Palo Alto 9-1 30
5. Los Gatos 6-4 22 vs 4. San Benito 5-5 22
6. Piedmont Hills 5-5 21 or Milpitas 6-4 21 vs 3. Salinas 7-3 25.5
7. Piedmont Hills 5-5 21 or Milpitas 6-4 21 vs 2. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 29
Smallest CBed – Palo Alto 2045
Division II
8. Leland 4-6 19 vs 1. Wilcox 10-0 33
5. Serra 7-3 24 vs 4. Valley Christian 7-3 25
6. Mitty 6-4 23.5 vs 3. Oak Grove 8-2 28.5
7. Christopher 5-5 20 vs 2. St. Francis 9-1 32
Smallest CBed – Valley Christian 1629
Division III
8. Menlo 5-5 20 or Pioneer 5-5 20 vs 1. Aptos 10-0 31
5. Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 26 vs 4. Live Oak 8-2 27
6. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5 vs 3. Terra Nova 9-1 27.5
7. Menlo 5-5 20 or Pioneer 5-5 20 vs 2. Palma 8-2 27.5
Largest CBed – Pioneer 1619
At-Large Projections
1. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5
2. Christopher 5-5 20
3. Pioneer 5-5 20
4. Cupertino 5-5 18.5
Others: Half Moon Bay 4-6 17, Bellarmine 2-8 16
DeAnza
Wilcox won a surprisingly tight game over Los Gatos 25-18. Cupertino looks like they will struggle against top division teams after losing 49-0 to Palo Alto. All three league games in week 7 figure to be blow outs.
Mount Hamilton
Continues to be the hardest league to handicap. Piedmont Hills upset previously unbeaten Live Oak 49-41. Leland upset Pioneer 40-20. This leaves Lincoln and Oak Grove as the leagues only two remaining unbeaten teams. At this point Oak Grove is the favorite to win the league with Live Oak, Piedmont Hills and Leland positioned to gain the other three automatic spots. Pioneer can get an-large bid if they can get wins over Santa Teresa and Westmont.
Gabilan
Four blowouts (closest game was 34 points) last week as the four top teams played the leagues bottom four teams. Same schedule this week and likely the same result.
PAL-Bay
The first full week of league action brought some consequential results. MA which was favored by 1 point over Terra Nova won 30-8 to establish themselves as the clear league favorite. Menlo was a one point underdog to Half Moon Bay but won decisively 44-25 and established themselves as the favorite to win the leagues fourth and final automatic berth.
WCAL
Sacred Heart Cathedral was able to prevail over Saint Ignatius 26-21 to put themselves in great position to for an at-large berth as the leagues fifth place team. Saint Francis’ defense stood strong in their 7-3 victory over Valley Christian and should have another couple of weeks to improve their offense before their week 10 showdown with Serra. This weeks schedule has Sacred Heart Cathedral facing off with Bellarmine in a game that will have implications for an at-large berth.
Division IV and V
It is unclear how many teams get automatic berths from the Cypress and Mission divisions of the new Pacific Coast Super The CCS by-laws for this year are very explicit and say two automatic qualifiers from each league. The Pacific Coast by-laws are equally explicit and say three automatic spots from the Mission league and one from the Cypress league. Historically the CCS has allowed super leagues to divvy up automatic spots as they prefer as long as they don’t accede the total allocation. For purposes of these projections I am going with three spots for the Mission and one for the Cypress.
The four changes to the projections this week were Hill going in and Evergreen Valley coming out as champion of the West Valley league and Monta Vista getting an at-large spot over Silver Creek who was upset by Willow Glen. Monte Vista Christian going into the third automatic spot from the Mission league based on their 36-6 thumping of Scotts Valley who came out of the projected field. The final change was Watsonville getting the last at-large spot instead of North Monterey County who lost 303 to San Lorezo Valley.
Division IV
8. Hill 7-3 17 vs 1. Overfelt 10-0 29
5. Carlmont 8-2 21 or Monta Vista 7-3 21 vs 4. Alisal 7-3 22
6. Carlmont 8-2 21 or Monta Vista 7-3 21 vs 3. Santa Clara 7-3 22.5
7. Watsonville 6-4 18.5 vs 2. Independence 9-1 24
Smallest CBed – Overfelt 1673
Division V
8. Monte Vista Christian 5-5 18 vs 1. Carmel 10-0 27.5
5. Gonzales 10-0 23 vs 4. Kings Academy 8-2 24
6. Del Mar 8-2 20.5 vs 3. Burlingame 8-2 25 or Monterey 9-1 25
7. Saratoga 6-4 19.5 vs 2. Burlingame 8-2 25 or Monterey 9-1 25
Highest CBed – Burlingame 1423
At-Large Teams
Monta Vista 7-3 21
Del Mar 7-3 20.5
Watsonville 6-4 18.5
Next:, Silver Creek 6-4 18, St. Francis Watsonville 6-4 17.5, Willow Glen 6-4 17.5, North Salinas 5-5 17.5
El Camino
Big win by Saratoga over Monta Vista 55-29 puts them in position to win out and take second place in the El Camino if they win their remaining games where they will be favored. Santa Clara still favorite to win the league with Monta Vista positioned to gain the first at-large berth even with a future loss to Santa Clara.
Cypress
Even though this is a B league they only get one automatic berth as the Pacific Coast assigned three of their five automatic spots to the Mission League and one each to the Cypress and the C league Santa Lucia league. Monterey is a strong favorite to get the lone play-off spot. Second place figures to be a dog fight between North Monterey County, King City, San Lorenzo Valley and St. Francis of Watsonville. St. Francis would get an at-large spot if they can go 3-0 over the others bunched for second place.
Mission
Carmel remain a heavy favorite to win the league and Alisal the same for second place. Monte Vista Christian is currently favored for the last automatic spot but will have to overcome North Salinas and Watsonville to get there.
Ocean
Burlingame and Kings Academy continue to show they are far ahead of the rest of the league. They will play each other on October 19thwith the winner likely to win the league. Based on poor pre-seasons the remaining teams will not have a chance for an at-large spot.
Santa Teresa
Two upsets this week in this competitive league as Gunderson knocked Del Mar from the ranks of the unbeaten in a 28-27 win and Willow Glen beat Silver Creek 17-15. Overfelt and Independence figure to get the two automatic spots and Del Mar is still well positioned for an at-large berth with Willow Glen and Silver Creek now on the bubble for an at-large spot.
Lake
Carlmont beat their highest ranked competitor (Capuchino) this week and is leagues lone undefeated team and is the favorite to win the league. They did lose their starting QB in the game and face Jefferson this week.
Santa Lucia
No changes here as Gonzales should win going away without much of a challenge. Stevenson is the only other undefeated team. Gonzales should face their biggest remaining challenge to an undefeated regular season when they face off with non-league rival King City this week.
West Valley
Hill is the last undefeated team having won three close games in this competitive league. Two teams trail Hill with one loss, but Hill has already beaten Prospect. Only Mt. Pleasant remains on their schedule of one loss teams in league.
Some consequential games from week 6 changed a number of teams in the projected field
In went Menlo, Sacred Heart Cathedral, and Leland Out came Saint Ignatius, Bellarmine, Half Moon Bay. Menlo-Atherton solidified their role as favorite in the Pal Bay. The Mt. Hamilton winner is now projected as Oak Grove following Live Oaks 49-41 upset loss to Piedmont Hills. These changes pushed Palo Alto back into Division I.
Projections
Division I
8. Cupertino 5-5 18.5 vs. 1. Palo Alto 9-1 30
5. Los Gatos 6-4 22 vs 4. San Benito 5-5 22
6. Piedmont Hills 5-5 21 or Milpitas 6-4 21 vs 3. Salinas 7-3 25.5
7. Piedmont Hills 5-5 21 or Milpitas 6-4 21 vs 2. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 29
Smallest CBed – Palo Alto 2045
Division II
8. Leland 4-6 19 vs 1. Wilcox 10-0 33
5. Serra 7-3 24 vs 4. Valley Christian 7-3 25
6. Mitty 6-4 23.5 vs 3. Oak Grove 8-2 28.5
7. Christopher 5-5 20 vs 2. St. Francis 9-1 32
Smallest CBed – Valley Christian 1629
Division III
8. Menlo 5-5 20 or Pioneer 5-5 20 vs 1. Aptos 10-0 31
5. Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 26 vs 4. Live Oak 8-2 27
6. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5 vs 3. Terra Nova 9-1 27.5
7. Menlo 5-5 20 or Pioneer 5-5 20 vs 2. Palma 8-2 27.5
Largest CBed – Pioneer 1619
At-Large Projections
1. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5
2. Christopher 5-5 20
3. Pioneer 5-5 20
4. Cupertino 5-5 18.5
Others: Half Moon Bay 4-6 17, Bellarmine 2-8 16
DeAnza
Wilcox won a surprisingly tight game over Los Gatos 25-18. Cupertino looks like they will struggle against top division teams after losing 49-0 to Palo Alto. All three league games in week 7 figure to be blow outs.
Mount Hamilton
Continues to be the hardest league to handicap. Piedmont Hills upset previously unbeaten Live Oak 49-41. Leland upset Pioneer 40-20. This leaves Lincoln and Oak Grove as the leagues only two remaining unbeaten teams. At this point Oak Grove is the favorite to win the league with Live Oak, Piedmont Hills and Leland positioned to gain the other three automatic spots. Pioneer can get an-large bid if they can get wins over Santa Teresa and Westmont.
Gabilan
Four blowouts (closest game was 34 points) last week as the four top teams played the leagues bottom four teams. Same schedule this week and likely the same result.
PAL-Bay
The first full week of league action brought some consequential results. MA which was favored by 1 point over Terra Nova won 30-8 to establish themselves as the clear league favorite. Menlo was a one point underdog to Half Moon Bay but won decisively 44-25 and established themselves as the favorite to win the leagues fourth and final automatic berth.
WCAL
Sacred Heart Cathedral was able to prevail over Saint Ignatius 26-21 to put themselves in great position to for an at-large berth as the leagues fifth place team. Saint Francis’ defense stood strong in their 7-3 victory over Valley Christian and should have another couple of weeks to improve their offense before their week 10 showdown with Serra. This weeks schedule has Sacred Heart Cathedral facing off with Bellarmine in a game that will have implications for an at-large berth.
Division IV and V
It is unclear how many teams get automatic berths from the Cypress and Mission divisions of the new Pacific Coast Super The CCS by-laws for this year are very explicit and say two automatic qualifiers from each league. The Pacific Coast by-laws are equally explicit and say three automatic spots from the Mission league and one from the Cypress league. Historically the CCS has allowed super leagues to divvy up automatic spots as they prefer as long as they don’t accede the total allocation. For purposes of these projections I am going with three spots for the Mission and one for the Cypress.
The four changes to the projections this week were Hill going in and Evergreen Valley coming out as champion of the West Valley league and Monta Vista getting an at-large spot over Silver Creek who was upset by Willow Glen. Monte Vista Christian going into the third automatic spot from the Mission league based on their 36-6 thumping of Scotts Valley who came out of the projected field. The final change was Watsonville getting the last at-large spot instead of North Monterey County who lost 303 to San Lorezo Valley.
Division IV
8. Hill 7-3 17 vs 1. Overfelt 10-0 29
5. Carlmont 8-2 21 or Monta Vista 7-3 21 vs 4. Alisal 7-3 22
6. Carlmont 8-2 21 or Monta Vista 7-3 21 vs 3. Santa Clara 7-3 22.5
7. Watsonville 6-4 18.5 vs 2. Independence 9-1 24
Smallest CBed – Overfelt 1673
Division V
8. Monte Vista Christian 5-5 18 vs 1. Carmel 10-0 27.5
5. Gonzales 10-0 23 vs 4. Kings Academy 8-2 24
6. Del Mar 8-2 20.5 vs 3. Burlingame 8-2 25 or Monterey 9-1 25
7. Saratoga 6-4 19.5 vs 2. Burlingame 8-2 25 or Monterey 9-1 25
Highest CBed – Burlingame 1423
At-Large Teams
Monta Vista 7-3 21
Del Mar 7-3 20.5
Watsonville 6-4 18.5
Next:, Silver Creek 6-4 18, St. Francis Watsonville 6-4 17.5, Willow Glen 6-4 17.5, North Salinas 5-5 17.5
El Camino
Big win by Saratoga over Monta Vista 55-29 puts them in position to win out and take second place in the El Camino if they win their remaining games where they will be favored. Santa Clara still favorite to win the league with Monta Vista positioned to gain the first at-large berth even with a future loss to Santa Clara.
Cypress
Even though this is a B league they only get one automatic berth as the Pacific Coast assigned three of their five automatic spots to the Mission League and one each to the Cypress and the C league Santa Lucia league. Monterey is a strong favorite to get the lone play-off spot. Second place figures to be a dog fight between North Monterey County, King City, San Lorenzo Valley and St. Francis of Watsonville. St. Francis would get an at-large spot if they can go 3-0 over the others bunched for second place.
Mission
Carmel remain a heavy favorite to win the league and Alisal the same for second place. Monte Vista Christian is currently favored for the last automatic spot but will have to overcome North Salinas and Watsonville to get there.
Ocean
Burlingame and Kings Academy continue to show they are far ahead of the rest of the league. They will play each other on October 19thwith the winner likely to win the league. Based on poor pre-seasons the remaining teams will not have a chance for an at-large spot.
Santa Teresa
Two upsets this week in this competitive league as Gunderson knocked Del Mar from the ranks of the unbeaten in a 28-27 win and Willow Glen beat Silver Creek 17-15. Overfelt and Independence figure to get the two automatic spots and Del Mar is still well positioned for an at-large berth with Willow Glen and Silver Creek now on the bubble for an at-large spot.
Lake
Carlmont beat their highest ranked competitor (Capuchino) this week and is leagues lone undefeated team and is the favorite to win the league. They did lose their starting QB in the game and face Jefferson this week.
Santa Lucia
No changes here as Gonzales should win going away without much of a challenge. Stevenson is the only other undefeated team. Gonzales should face their biggest remaining challenge to an undefeated regular season when they face off with non-league rival King City this week.
West Valley
Hill is the last undefeated team having won three close games in this competitive league. Two teams trail Hill with one loss, but Hill has already beaten Prospect. Only Mt. Pleasant remains on their schedule of one loss teams in league.
More great work by the anonymous CCS analyst. No one does it better or faster.
CCS Play-off projections after Week 7
The only unexpected A league results from week 7 were in the WCAL as Valley Christian ran over Serra – which doesn’t change the teams that are projected field or seedings - as Mitty also was upset by Saint Ignatius.
Projections
Division I
8. Cupertino 5-5 18.5 vs. 1. Palo Alto 9-1 30
5. Los Gatos 6-4 22 vs 4. San Benito 5-5 22
6. Piedmont Hills 5-5 21 or Milpitas 6-4 21 vs 3. Salinas 7-3 25.5
7. Piedmont Hills 5-5 21 or Milpitas 6-4 21 vs 2. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 29
Smallest CBed – Palo Alto 2045
Division II
8. Leland 4-6 19 vs 1. Wilcox 10-0 33
5. Serra 6-4 22 vs 4. Valley Christian 8-2 27
6. Mitty 6-4 21.5 vs 3. Oak Grove 8-2 28.5
7. Christopher 5-5 20 vs 2. St. Francis 9-1 32
Smallest CBed – Valley Christian 1629
Division III
8. Menlo 5-5 20 or Pioneer 5-5 20 vs 1. Aptos 10-0 31
5. Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 26 vs 4. Live Oak 8-2 27
6. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5 vs 3. Terra Nova 9-1 27.5
7. Menlo 5-5 20 or Pioneer 5-5 20 vs 2. Palma 8-2 27.5
Largest CBed – Pioneer 1619
At-Large Projections
1.Christopher 5-5 21
2.Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5
3.Pioneer 5-5 20
4.Cupertino 5-5 18.5
DeAnza
Week 7 saw three expected blow outs. Week 8 features Wilcox playing Milpitas. An expected Wilcox win will cement the league championship. Four automatic berths will go to Wilcox, Palo Alto, Milpitas, and Los Gatos with Cupertino getting an at-large berth.
Mount Hamilton
Finally a week without upsets in the Mt Hamilton. The league is shaping up to have Oak Grove, Live, Oak, Piedmont Hills and Leland taking the four automatic spots and Pioneer well positioned to get an at-large berth. Oak Grove still needs to beat Lincoln and Live Oak to gain the league championship.
Gabilan
Second consecutive week with four blow out wins and next week should be the same as the four top teams play the four bottom teams again. Automatic berths will go to Aptos, Salinas, Palma and San Benito with Christopher getting an at-large spot.
PAL-Bay
Menlo-Atherton faces off with Sacred Heart Prep this week in a battle among the leagues last two unbeaten teams. Aragon will play Half Moon Bay in a toss up game as Aragon seeks their first win. An Aragon win will put them in a position where a win against Menlo can get them into the play-offs. Current projections are for the four berths to go to Menlo-Atherton, Terra Nova, Sacred Heart Prep and Menlo.
WCAL
Three big games where Valley Christians thrashing of Serra 37-6, Sacred Heart Cathedral’s 14-0 shut out of Bellarmine and SI’s u[set over Mitty. Three of leagues four automatic spots should go to St. Francis, Valley Christian, and Serra. The fourth spot will be up for grabs with a projected three way tie between SI, Sacred Heart Cathedral and Mitty. If they finish 5thSHC and Mitty would still get an at-large spot.
Division IV and V
A couple of upsets and surprise results from the lower divisions as Del Mar bounced back from their upset loss to Gunderson to knock Overfelt from the unbeaten ranks. Scotts Valley in a mild surprise nipped Watsonville 25-20,Los Altos beat Monta Vista by a touchdown and Monta Vista Christian beat Alisal 21-13 in games that impacted the field after week 7.
Current projections show a tie for the final at-large spot between Scotts Valley and Monta Vista. A Coin flip would decide it. If Monta Vista was selected Saratoga would move down to Division 5 and be tied for the 7 and 8 seed with Capuchino. If Scotts Valley saw selected Saratoga would be in D IV
Division IV
8. Hill 7-3 17 vs 1. Independence 10-0 27
5. Carlmont 8-2 21 vs 4. Santa Clara 7-3 21.5
6. Alisal 6-4 20 Monta Vista 7-3 21 vs 3. Overfelt 8-2 24
7. Monta Vista 6-4 19 or Saratoga 6-4 19 vs 2. Burlingame 8-2 26
Smallest CBed – Burlingame 1423 or Saratoga 1354
Division V
8. Scotts Valley 6-4 19 or Saratoga 6-4 19.5 or Capuchino 19.5 vs 1. Carmel 10-0 27.5
5. Del Mar 8-2 22.5 vs 4. Gonzales 10-0 23
6. Monta Vista Christian 6-4 20 vs 3. Kings Academy 8-2 24
7. Saratoga 6-4 19.5 or Capuchino 19.5 vs 2. Monterey 9-1 25
Highest CBed – Saratoga 1354
At-Large Teams
Del Mar 8-2 22.5
Capuchiino 7-3 19.5
Monta Vista 6-4 19 or Scotts Valley 6-4 19
El Camino
League title and automatic berths still in play in this competitive league. Santa Clara is the lone undefeated team and Saratoga is favored for second with Monta Vista on the bubble for an at-large berth. Mountain View and Los Altos though are still in the mix with strong late season runs.
Cypress
Monterey is still a strong favorite for the lone spot. Game with San Lorenzo Valley this week should determine league champion. Monterey would still be well positioned for an t-large spot with a loss.
Mission
Carmel remain a heavy favorite to win the league. MVC’s win over Alisal positions them for second with Alisal well positioned for the third and final automatic spot. Scotts Valley is on the bubble for an at-large berth in this competitive league.
Ocean
Burlingame and Kings Academy face off this week for the league championship. Both teams will make the play-offs.
Santa Teresa
This continues to be a competitive league. Del Mar’s win over Overfelt leaves Independence as the lone undefeated team. Independence, Overfelt and Del Mar will make the play-off field with Willow Glen and Leigh still fighting for a spot on the bubble.
Lake
Carlmont’s win over Jefferson puts them in great position to win the league as expected. Some of the other upsets have put Capuchino in a position for an at-large berth if they can win out.
Santa Lucia
Gonzales got a big win over non league rival King City and will heavily favored to finish the season 10-0 and tge the leagues only playoff spot.
West Valley
Hill is the last undefeated team but still has a game against one loss Mt. Pleasant on their schedule.
The only unexpected A league results from week 7 were in the WCAL as Valley Christian ran over Serra – which doesn’t change the teams that are projected field or seedings - as Mitty also was upset by Saint Ignatius.
Projections
Division I
8. Cupertino 5-5 18.5 vs. 1. Palo Alto 9-1 30
5. Los Gatos 6-4 22 vs 4. San Benito 5-5 22
6. Piedmont Hills 5-5 21 or Milpitas 6-4 21 vs 3. Salinas 7-3 25.5
7. Piedmont Hills 5-5 21 or Milpitas 6-4 21 vs 2. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 29
Smallest CBed – Palo Alto 2045
Division II
8. Leland 4-6 19 vs 1. Wilcox 10-0 33
5. Serra 6-4 22 vs 4. Valley Christian 8-2 27
6. Mitty 6-4 21.5 vs 3. Oak Grove 8-2 28.5
7. Christopher 5-5 20 vs 2. St. Francis 9-1 32
Smallest CBed – Valley Christian 1629
Division III
8. Menlo 5-5 20 or Pioneer 5-5 20 vs 1. Aptos 10-0 31
5. Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 26 vs 4. Live Oak 8-2 27
6. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5 vs 3. Terra Nova 9-1 27.5
7. Menlo 5-5 20 or Pioneer 5-5 20 vs 2. Palma 8-2 27.5
Largest CBed – Pioneer 1619
At-Large Projections
1.Christopher 5-5 21
2.Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5
3.Pioneer 5-5 20
4.Cupertino 5-5 18.5
DeAnza
Week 7 saw three expected blow outs. Week 8 features Wilcox playing Milpitas. An expected Wilcox win will cement the league championship. Four automatic berths will go to Wilcox, Palo Alto, Milpitas, and Los Gatos with Cupertino getting an at-large berth.
Mount Hamilton
Finally a week without upsets in the Mt Hamilton. The league is shaping up to have Oak Grove, Live, Oak, Piedmont Hills and Leland taking the four automatic spots and Pioneer well positioned to get an at-large berth. Oak Grove still needs to beat Lincoln and Live Oak to gain the league championship.
Gabilan
Second consecutive week with four blow out wins and next week should be the same as the four top teams play the four bottom teams again. Automatic berths will go to Aptos, Salinas, Palma and San Benito with Christopher getting an at-large spot.
PAL-Bay
Menlo-Atherton faces off with Sacred Heart Prep this week in a battle among the leagues last two unbeaten teams. Aragon will play Half Moon Bay in a toss up game as Aragon seeks their first win. An Aragon win will put them in a position where a win against Menlo can get them into the play-offs. Current projections are for the four berths to go to Menlo-Atherton, Terra Nova, Sacred Heart Prep and Menlo.
WCAL
Three big games where Valley Christians thrashing of Serra 37-6, Sacred Heart Cathedral’s 14-0 shut out of Bellarmine and SI’s u[set over Mitty. Three of leagues four automatic spots should go to St. Francis, Valley Christian, and Serra. The fourth spot will be up for grabs with a projected three way tie between SI, Sacred Heart Cathedral and Mitty. If they finish 5thSHC and Mitty would still get an at-large spot.
Division IV and V
A couple of upsets and surprise results from the lower divisions as Del Mar bounced back from their upset loss to Gunderson to knock Overfelt from the unbeaten ranks. Scotts Valley in a mild surprise nipped Watsonville 25-20,Los Altos beat Monta Vista by a touchdown and Monta Vista Christian beat Alisal 21-13 in games that impacted the field after week 7.
Current projections show a tie for the final at-large spot between Scotts Valley and Monta Vista. A Coin flip would decide it. If Monta Vista was selected Saratoga would move down to Division 5 and be tied for the 7 and 8 seed with Capuchino. If Scotts Valley saw selected Saratoga would be in D IV
Division IV
8. Hill 7-3 17 vs 1. Independence 10-0 27
5. Carlmont 8-2 21 vs 4. Santa Clara 7-3 21.5
6. Alisal 6-4 20 Monta Vista 7-3 21 vs 3. Overfelt 8-2 24
7. Monta Vista 6-4 19 or Saratoga 6-4 19 vs 2. Burlingame 8-2 26
Smallest CBed – Burlingame 1423 or Saratoga 1354
Division V
8. Scotts Valley 6-4 19 or Saratoga 6-4 19.5 or Capuchino 19.5 vs 1. Carmel 10-0 27.5
5. Del Mar 8-2 22.5 vs 4. Gonzales 10-0 23
6. Monta Vista Christian 6-4 20 vs 3. Kings Academy 8-2 24
7. Saratoga 6-4 19.5 or Capuchino 19.5 vs 2. Monterey 9-1 25
Highest CBed – Saratoga 1354
At-Large Teams
Del Mar 8-2 22.5
Capuchiino 7-3 19.5
Monta Vista 6-4 19 or Scotts Valley 6-4 19
El Camino
League title and automatic berths still in play in this competitive league. Santa Clara is the lone undefeated team and Saratoga is favored for second with Monta Vista on the bubble for an at-large berth. Mountain View and Los Altos though are still in the mix with strong late season runs.
Cypress
Monterey is still a strong favorite for the lone spot. Game with San Lorenzo Valley this week should determine league champion. Monterey would still be well positioned for an t-large spot with a loss.
Mission
Carmel remain a heavy favorite to win the league. MVC’s win over Alisal positions them for second with Alisal well positioned for the third and final automatic spot. Scotts Valley is on the bubble for an at-large berth in this competitive league.
Ocean
Burlingame and Kings Academy face off this week for the league championship. Both teams will make the play-offs.
Santa Teresa
This continues to be a competitive league. Del Mar’s win over Overfelt leaves Independence as the lone undefeated team. Independence, Overfelt and Del Mar will make the play-off field with Willow Glen and Leigh still fighting for a spot on the bubble.
Lake
Carlmont’s win over Jefferson puts them in great position to win the league as expected. Some of the other upsets have put Capuchino in a position for an at-large berth if they can win out.
Santa Lucia
Gonzales got a big win over non league rival King City and will heavily favored to finish the season 10-0 and tge the leagues only playoff spot.
West Valley
Hill is the last undefeated team but still has a game against one loss Mt. Pleasant on their schedule.
Sacred Heart Cathedral is also one to watch in D3 and Sacred Heart prep could be a wild card.
If SLV wins beats Monterey and wins their league they would be the 8 seed in Division V and would be projected to play Carmel (unless Carmel opted up). If Monterey won out after their loss they would drop to 22 points and be an at-large team and a projected five seed vs Del Mar in the first round. Saratoga would be pushed up to DIV and Scotts Valley and Monta Vista would not qualify for an at-large berth. .
If I understand right, Carmel would be somewhere between 2-4 (three teams with 27.5 Points) in DIII. As it stands now Cupertino (lowest power Points) would be bumped to DIV and Pioneer would move up to DII and Wilcox to DI.
I am still of the opinion that Carmel will choose not to opt up.
I am still of the opinion that Carmel will choose not to opt up.
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IF Carmel opted up under current projections they would likely face Live Oak, Sacred Heart Prep or Sacred Heart Cathedral in the first round and then most likely Aptos, Palma or Terra Nova in a second round game It is highly likely that both DIII finalists will make it to the regional games this year.
Current Cal Preps rankings for potential DIII teams are
Aptos - 7
Palma - 8
Terra Nova - 9
Carmel -10
Sacred Heart Prep -12
Sacred Heart Cathedral -14
Live Oak - 18
If Carmel stays in Division V the highest ranked opponent in the bracket will be Kings Academy at 16 and potentially Burlingame at 22.
