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CCS Play-off Projections After Week 10 - Final going into Sunday meeting

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PALbooster

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Oct 26, 2007
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Following the preseason for all leagues (PAL still has another two weeks of non-league games) this looks like one of the easier seasons to handicap the play-offs for A leagues.

The CCS A league play-offs consists of 24 teams from the sections 37 teams that are in 5 A Leagues. The top 4 teams in each league get an automatic berth. The four teams with the most CCS points among the remaining 17 teams get an at-large bid. The one wrinkle is that a B league champion can opt up to the A league play-offs and that would bump the team with fewest CCS points to the lower division play-offs. The CCS sends all three of its open division play-off winners to regional play as well as two of the three runner-up teams (tie breaker based on head to head competition among all three runner-ups and absent that based on CCS regular season power points).

Projections
Division I
8. Cupertino 5-5 18.5 vs. 1. Wilcox 10-0 32
5. Salinas 6-4 23.5 vs 4. Los Gatos 7-3 25
6. San Benito 5-5 22 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28.5
7. Milpitas 5-5 19.5 vs 2. Palo Alto 9-1 30
Smallest CBed – Wilcox 1969

Division II
8. Christopher 5-5 20 or Aragon 4-6 20 vs 1. St. Francis 9-1 31
5. Oak Grove 6-4 23 vs 4. Mitty 6-4 23.5
6. Leland 5-5 22 vs 3. Serra 7-3 25
7. Christopher 5-5 20 or Aragon 4-6 20 vs 2. Valley Christian 7-3 26
Smallest CBed – Valley Christian 1629

Division III
8. Half Moon Bay 5-5 19 vs 1. Pioneer 10-0 31.5
5. Terra Nova 9-1 27.5 vs 4. Live Oak 9-1 29
6. Sacred Heart Prep 7-3 24 vs 3. Palma 9-1 29.5
7. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Aptos 10-0 31
Largest CBed – Pioneer 1619

DeAnza
Every year since 2011 the top four teams in the DeAnza have been Milpitas, Los Gatos, Wilcox and Palo Alto in some order. The one exception was 2014 when Saratoga took 4thplace and Palo Alto finished 5th. This year looks no different with Wilcox being the league favorite over Palo Alto and Los Gatos and Milpitas likely to finish third and fourth. Fremont and Homestead have lost decisively to a series of lower division teams. Cupertino at 3-1 will likely finish 5thand be in contention for an at-large berth at 5-5 and 18.5 points.

Mount Hamilton

This league is really down this year. Really the only difficult league to handicap at this point due to vastly different pre-season scheduling philosophies. Oak Grove and Leland have scheduled teams far above the quality of league opponents and have been blown out. Other teams such as Pioneer and Live Oak have scheduled B teams and lower level A teams and are 3-0.

At this point I see Oak Grove, Live Oak and Pioneer contending for the top three positions with an edge toward Pioneer as the most consistent team. Fourth place is likely to come down to 1-2 Leland and 0-3 Piedmont Hills with a couple of close losses to good B teams and a blow out loss to Terra Nova. Lincoln opts out of the play-offs and is unlikely to be in the top four anyway. Santa Teresa is 0-3 with three losses to B league teams and Westmont is 1-2 with two losses to B league teams and a narrow win over a weak C league team and will struggle in league play.


Pacific Coast Gabilan

Another league that usually sends the same teams to the play-offs year after year. This year Aptos should be a slight favorite over Palma for the league championship. The middle of the league might be competitive with an edge to Salinas and San Benito for third and fourth place over Christopher. Salinas and San Benito both saw some early season losses to good teams and showed well in their third game with wins over Milpitas and Los Gatos respectively. Christopher will be well positioned to get a berth as an at-large team by finishing fifth. Gilroy got blown out by Pioneer and Liberty and barely eked out a win over winless B league Soledad and will have a hard time finishing in the top four. Alvarez and Seaside are both winless with numerous losses to B league teams and figure to struggle in league play.

PAL -Bay

PAL-Bay still has a few weeks to go until league play starts. Menlo-Atherton and Terra Nova should compete for the league title. While Aragon has struggled with strong pre-season competition they should battle Sacred Heart Prep and Half Moon Bay for the third and fourth spots. Menlo looks like they will struggle in league with a small roster. Sacred Heart and Half Moon Bay will likely get an at-large berth if they finish fifth in the league.

WCAL

This is well covered in the WCAL thread. The league title should come down to St. Francis and Serra. The final two automatic spots should go to Mitty and Valley Christian. There should be an interesting battle for the next three places between SHC, Bellarmine and SI. SHC went 2-1 in pre-season and would get an -at-large berth with a 5thplace finish and be on the bubble in 6thplace. The 5th place team would have a good chance to gain an at-large berth. Riordan figures to struggle in league and while capable of upsetting a team in the tier above them, their defensive deficiencies make it unlikely that they compete for 5th place in this league.
 
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I've been waiting all season for your stellar CCS posts. This year, you have started even earlier. THANKS!
 
Good stuff PALbooster! MaxPreps and The Athletic should hire both you and Rmbr26
 
Thank you for the kind words. I will start with the B and C leagues next week and the corresponding Division 4 and 5 projections. Too much work and game prep this week.

Any B league champion can opt up to the open division play-offs provided they are a league champion (it is unclear if a co=champ could opt up) and if they have more power points than the lowest remaining open division qualifying team. So if Carmel is a league champion (they are a heavy favorite) they will have enough CCS points to opt up if they wish and would be in Division III. Based on the scenario in my projections Cupertino then would be forced down as they would be the open division team with he fewest CCS points.
 
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Thank you for the clarification.

Would Cupertino be asked into D4 or D5? They are about 1,300 students larger than Carmel so I assume there would be a trickle affect with Cupertino going to D4 and someone else (Probably Overfelt or Burlingame) going to D5?
 
PALbooster said:
Thank you for the kind words. I will start with the B and C leagues next week and the corresponding Division 4 and 5 projections. Too much work and game prep this week.

Any B league champion can opt up to the open division play-offs provided they are a league champion (it is unclear if a co=champ could opt up) and if they have more power points than the lowest remaining open division qualifying team. So if Carmel is a league champion (they are a heavy favorite) they will have enough CCS points to opt up if they wish and would be in Division III. Based on the scenario in my projections Cupertino then would be forced down as they would be the open division team with he fewest CCS points.
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This is a really early question but in the event of point ties what determines seedings?
 
831ccschamp said:
This is a really early question but in the event of point ties what determines seedings?
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If two (2) or more teams are tied with the same number of points, after using the above point-system, head-to-head competition between all the tied teams, if any, will determine At-Large selection and/or seeding position. If no complete head-to-head competition exists among the tied teams, then results of competition, involving all tied teams, with common opponents will determine selection. If, after consideration of competition with common opponents, the teams are still tied, then a blind draw will be used to determine the At-Large or seeding selection
 
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PALbooster said:
Following the preseason for all leagues (PAL still has another two weeks of non-league games) this looks like one of the easier seasons to handicap the play-offs for A leagues.

The CCS A league play-offs consists of 24 teams from the sections 37 teams that are in 5 A Leagues. The top 4 teams in each league get an automatic berth. The four teams with the most CCS points among the remaining 17 teams get an at-large bid. The one wrinkle is that a B league champion can opt up to the A league play-offs and that would bump the team with fewest CCS points to the lower division play-offs. The CCS sends all three of its open division play-off winners to regional play as well as two of the three runner-up teams (tie breaker based on head to head competition among all three runner-ups and absent that based on CCS regular season power points).

Projections
Division I
8. Cupertino 5-5 18.5 vs. 1. Wilcox 10-0 32
5. Salinas 6-4 23.5 vs 4. Los Gatos 7-3 25
6. San Benito 5-5 22 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28.5
7. Milpitas 5-5 19.5 vs 2. Palo Alto 9-1 30
Smallest CBed – Wilcox 1969

Division II
8. Christopher 5-5 20 or Aragon 4-6 20 vs 1. St. Francis 9-1 31
5. Oak Grove 6-4 23 vs 4. Mitty 6-4 23.5
6. Leland 5-5 22 vs 3. Serra 7-3 25
7. Christopher 5-5 20 or Aragon 4-6 20 vs 2. Valley Christian 7-3 26
Smallest CBed – Valley Christian 1629

Division III
8. Half Moon Bay 5-5 19 vs 1. Pioneer 10-0 31.5
5. Terra Nova 9-1 27.5 vs 4. Live Oak 9-1 29
6. Sacred Heart Prep 7-3 24 vs 3. Palma 9-1 29.5
7. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Aptos 10-0 31
Largest CBed – Pioneer 1619

DeAnza
Every year since 2011 the top four teams in the DeAnza have been Milpitas, Los Gatos, Wilcox and Palo Alto in some order. The one exception was 2014 when Saratoga took 4thplace and Palo Alto finished 5th. This year looks no different with Wilcox being the league favorite over Palo Alto and Los Gatos and Milpitas likely to finish third and fourth. Fremont and Homestead have lost decisively to a series of lower division teams. Cupertino at 3-1 will likely finish 5thand be in contention for an at-large berth at 5-5 and 18.5 points.

Mount Hamilton

This league is really down this year. Really the only difficult league to handicap at this point due to vastly different pre-season scheduling philosophies. Oak Grove and Leland have scheduled teams far above the quality of league opponents and have been blown out. Other teams such as Pioneer and Live Oak have scheduled B teams and lower level A teams and are 3-0.

At this point I see Oak Grove, Live Oak and Pioneer contending for the top three positions with an edge toward Pioneer as the most consistent team. Fourth place is likely to come down to 1-2 Leland and 0-3 Piedmont Hills with a couple of close losses to good B teams and a blow out loss to Terra Nova. Lincoln opts out of the play-offs and is unlikely to be in the top four anyway. Santa Teresa is 0-3 with three losses to B league teams and Westmont is 1-2 with two losses to B league teams and a narrow win over a weak C league team and will struggle in league play.


Pacific Coast Gabilan

Another league that usually sends the same teams to the play-offs year after year. This year Aptos should be a slight favorite over Palma for the league championship. The middle of the league might be competitive with an edge to Salinas and San Benito for third and fourth place over Christopher. Salinas and San Benito both saw some early season losses to good teams and showed well in their third game with wins over Milpitas and Los Gatos respectively. Christopher will be well positioned to get a berth as an at-large team by finishing fifth. Gilroy got blown out by Pioneer and Liberty and barely eked out a win over winless B league Soledad and will have a hard time finishing in the top four. Alvarez and Seaside are both winless with numerous losses to B league teams and figure to struggle in league play.

PAL -Bay

PAL-Bay still has a few weeks to go until league play starts. Menlo-Atherton and Terra Nova should compete for the league title. While Aragon has struggled with strong pre-season competition they should battle Sacred Heart Prep and Half Moon Bay for the third and fourth spots. Menlo looks like they will struggle in league with a small roster. Sacred Heart and Half Moon Bay will likely get an at-large berth if they finish fifth in the league.

WCAL

This is well covered in the WCAL thread. The league title should come down to St. Francis and Serra. The final two automatic spots should go to Mitty and Valley Christian. There should be an interesting battle for the next three places between SHC, Bellarmine and SI. SHC went 2-1 in pre-season and would get an -at-large berth with a 5thplace finish and be on the bubble in 6thplace. The 5th place team would have a good chance to gain an at-large berth. Riordan figures to struggle in league and while capable of upsetting a team in the tier above them, their defensive deficiencies make it unlikely that they compete for 5th place in this league.
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What about Carmel? They should run the table 10-0 in B league. What if they opt up....will they bump someone out?
 
NorCalSportsFan said:
What about Carmel? They should run the table 10-0 in B league. What if they opt up....will they bump someone out?
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According to prep2preps play off projections at this point of time if everything stands they would bump out Menlo School due to them having an at-large birth in open 3. They essentially would bump out the lowest at large birth in D-3 leaving an at large birth in D-5. Or least that’s what I assume. I’m sorta new at this play projection craziness lol
 
NorCalSportsFan said:
What about Carmel? They should run the table 10-0 in B league. What if they opt up....will they bump someone out?
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If I understand the rules, as long as they have enough power points of the lowest A qualifier a B league champion can opt to move up regardless of division. They will then be placed in a division based on enrollment, this may cause a trickle down effect depending who they replace. That A qualifier would be placed in either IV or V based on enrollment.

In the case of Carmel, no decision will be made until the end of the season. If they win (I agree they should go 10-0 easily) they will asses the overall health of the team. They went 10-0 two years ago but lost their #1 RB at the end of the season (2nd to last game) and lost in the first round of the DV playoffs. Despite their success over the past 12 years they have only won 1 section championship, 2009. Winning a "closed" DIV/V championship might be more of a goal for this program then a chance of a state bowl game.
 
RLS13 said:
If I understand the rules, as long as they have enough power points of the lowest A qualifier a B league champion can opt to move up regardless of division. They will then be placed in a division based on enrollment, this may cause a trickle down effect depending who they replace. That A qualifier would be placed in either IV or V based on enrollment.

In the case of Carmel, no decision will be made until the end of the season. If they win (I agree they should go 10-0 easily) they will asses the overall health of the team. They went 10-0 two years ago but lost their #1 RB at the end of the season (2nd to last game) and lost in the first round of the DV playoffs. Despite their success over the past 12 years they have only won 1 section championship, 2009. Winning a "closed" DIV/V championship might be more of a goal for this program then a chance of a state bowl game.
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Also, if you recall a few years ago, their coach actually did not initially submit an application to advance to a state game. He had to be coaxed into it later.

I don't see them petitioning up.
 
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Cal 14 said:
Also, if you recall a few years ago, their coach actually did not initially submit an application to advance to a state game. He had to be coaxed into it later.

I don't see them petitioning up.
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I originally didn’t see them opting up but the more I look at it I really think they have the ability to compete to at least get to the championship game. If they can do that they are eligible for a bowl game if I was a player I’d want my coach to have the belief in me to give our team a challenge.
 
Cal 14 said:
Also, if you recall a few years ago, their coach actually did not initially submit an application to advance to a state game. He had to be coaxed into it later.

I don't see them petitioning up.
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From what I hear Golden absolutely hates the equity league format, so I have to believe he is never going to be thrilled about opting up for the playoffs. He is gong to be forced up to the Gabilan next year anyway though, so I don’t know how that will affect his decision. Does he go for a DV title while he still can? Or does he opt up to give his juniors/sophomores a preview of what they can expect next year when they run the Gabilan gauntlet of Aptos, Palma, Hollister, and Salinas?
 
A few years ago a 2-8 SHP team strolled into Carmel (10-0) and beat them on their home turf by 20+. I am not sure how loaded they are this year but perhaps they should focus on winning DV first. I think that would be good for the program. Opting up is a noble thing but usually ends in first round loss.
 
hsfb44 said:
A few years ago a 2-8 SHP team strolled into Carmel (10-0) and beat them on their home turf by 20+. I am not sure how loaded they are this year but perhaps they should focus on winning DV first. I think that would be good for the program. Opting up is a noble thing but usually ends in first round loss.
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I mean, with all respect that mf Pete Lavorato is a damn beast.
 
hsfb44 said:
A few years ago a 2-8 SHP team strolled into Carmel (10-0) and beat them on their home turf by 20+. I am not sure how loaded they are this year but perhaps they should focus on winning DV first. I think that would be good for the program. Opting up is a noble thing but usually ends in first round loss.
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hsfb44 said:
A few years ago a 2-8 SHP team strolled into Carmel (10-0) and beat them on their home turf by 20+. I am not sure how loaded they are this year but perhaps they should focus on winning DV first. I think that would be good for the program. Opting up is a noble thing but usually ends in first round loss.
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that SHP team barely lost to half moon bay in the final so I don’t think losing to them was something that should be discouraging to the point that it effects their decision. Carmel’s strength of schedule is legit. In 2016 they were in MTAL pre equity. They performed well against Salinas and won and depending on how they perform against Palma this week should say a lot. If Salinas is close or wins I think that says Carmel can play with any one in D3.
 
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831ccschamp said:
that SHP team barely lost to half moon bay in the final so I don’t think losing to them was something that should be discouraging to the point that it effects their decision. Carmel’s strength of schedule is legit. In 2016 they were in MTAL pre equity. They performed well against Salinas and won and depending on how they perform against Palma this week should say a lot. If Salinas is close or wins I think that says Carmel can play with any one in D3.
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Yea in reality how Salinas does against Palma and Aptos (who will be the D3 favorites) will show us wether or not Carmel should opt up. But from the HC’s perspective, I don’t know if you can base a decision like that on what another team does.
 
hsfb44 said:
A few years ago a 2-8 SHP team strolled into Carmel (10-0) and beat them on their home turf by 20+. I am not sure how loaded they are this year but perhaps they should focus on winning DV first. I think that would be good for the program. Opting up is a noble thing but usually ends in first round loss.
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In fairness to Carmel, this was the season they lost their dominant running back with 2 games left in the regular season. He was a huge difference maker on both sides of the ball, though he only played D in specific situations. That loss changed the dynamics considerably, and yes, SOS showed up in the form of SHP who had played a much tougher schedule, and came very close to winning sectionals.

I think Carmel has way more depth this season then they did 2 years ago. They aren't 2 deep everywhere, but they have 4 or 5 playmakers on Offense and a very respectable defense.

I hope they give strong consideration to opting up if they do run the table and stay healthy, but understand it isn't a high priority for Golden, both AD and coach.
 
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Golden may not be a fan of the equity league format for a couple of reasons. They are a public school of 900 with "closed borders" meaning they don't allow persons to attend that do not live within district boundaries. Secondly- the fear is that their frosh- soph team would have to compete against the big school JV teams and probably take a beating which in turn could lead to fewer kids wanting to play thus eventually impacting the entire program. Probably a legitimate fear. The real problem is competing year in and year out with the big four ( palma, salinas , hollister and aptos) not just for most likely Carmel next year but also the other bottom teams currently in the Gabilan division ( Seaside, gilroy, alvarez and christopher) I think the other 3 tiers of the PCAL are fairly balanced- the Gab seems to be the one causing the most headache for the non "big four" teams. A 10-0 Carmel team this year will be bumped up next year- the question is how will their entire program be able to weather the big schools on a weekly basis and how will the program respond moving forward. An interesting price to pay for having the success that they have had.
 
Prepwisdom said:
Golden may not be a fan of the equity league format for a couple of reasons. They are a public school of 900 with "closed borders" meaning they don't allow persons to attend that do not live within district boundaries. Secondly- the fear is that their frosh- soph team would have to compete against the big school JV teams and probably take a beating which in turn could lead to fewer kids wanting to play thus eventually impacting the entire program. Probably a legitimate fear. The real problem is competing year in and year out with the big four ( palma, salinas , hollister and aptos) not just for most likely Carmel next year but also the other bottom teams currently in the Gabilan division ( Seaside, gilroy, alvarez and christopher) I think the other 3 tiers of the PCAL are fairly balanced- the Gab seems to be the one causing the most headache for the non "big four" teams. A 10-0 Carmel team this year will be bumped up next year- the question is how will their entire program be able to weather the big schools on a weekly basis and how will the program respond moving forward. An interesting price to pay for having the success that they have had.
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The same argument could be said for seaside as far as enrollment. I don’t believe that it is fair to have a 8 team league. Seaside and Carmel don’t belong there and this is coming from a person who thinks Carmel should opt open for play offs. Gilroy, Alvarez, and Christopher all have enrollment that would allow depth nessasary to compete with top notch opponents week in and week out. Whether or not the talent and coaching is there is a topic for a different discussion. But public schools that can’t man a 3-level program shouldn’t be forced into a league they don’t want to be in unless it’s blatently clear they can compete to be in the top long term.
 
831ccschamp said:
The same argument could be said for seaside as far as enrollment. I don’t believe that it is fair to have a 8 team league. Seaside and Carmel don’t belong there and this is coming from a person who thinks Carmel should opt open for play offs. Gilroy, Alvarez, and Christopher all have enrollment that would allow depth nessasary to compete with top notch opponents week in and week out. Whether or not the talent and coaching is there is a topic for a different discussion. But public schools that can’t man a 3-level program shouldn’t be forced into a league they don’t want to be in unless it’s blatently clear they can compete to be in the top long term.
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Totally agree. The decision to make the Gabilan an 8 team league was just stupid. I mean who does this benefit exactly?? Obviously it hurts the smaller schools forced up, but it’s doesnt help the big 4 either by basically forcing them to play more weak opponents. If you cut it down to 6 schools then you give them more flexibility to schedule some out of section games to bolster their resume for regional bowl games. It also lets the 2 teams forced up to schedule down in their non league games to help balance out the gauntlet they would run in league.

It just makes no damn sense.
 
SpeedCity51 said:
Totally agree. The decision to make the Gabilan an 8 team league was just stupid. I mean who does this benefit exactly?? Obviously it hurts the smaller schools forced up, but it’s doesnt help the big 4 either by basically forcing them to play more weak opponents. If you cut it down to 6 schools then you give them more flexibility to schedule some out of section games to bolster their resume for regional bowl games. It also lets the 2 teams forced up to schedule down in their non league games to help balance out the gauntlet they would run in league.

It just makes no damn sense.
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It gives them 4 automatic qualifiers I believe?
 
SpeedCity51 said:
Well the PAL Bay only has 6 schools and they get four bids, so I have to imagine the Gabilan would still get 4 if they dropped to 6.
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yes, all A leagues get 4 Autos. Thats Current but with participation rates dropping and the wider disparity gap, look for re-alignment and possible approval of 5 team leagues.
 
CCS Play-off Projections after Week 4

Division I
8. Bellarmine 3-7 18 vs. 1. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 29
5. Milpitas 5-5 19.5 vs 4. San Benito 5-5 22
6. Piedmont Hills 4-6 19 vs 3. Los Gatos 7-3 24
7. Cupertino 5-5 18.5 vs 2. Salinas 7-3 25.5
Smallest CBed – Los Gatos 2062

Division II
8. Christopher 5-5 21 vs 1. Wilcox 10-0 33
5. Oak Grove 7-3 25 or Valley Christian 7-3 25 vs 4. Oak Grove 7-3 25 or Valley Christian 7-3 25
6. Serra 7-3 24 vs 3. Palo Alto 9-1 30
7. Mitty 6-4 23.5 vs 2. St. Francis 9-1 31
Smallest CBed – Valley Christian 1629

Division III
8. Saint Ignatius 3-7 17 vs 1. Live Oak 10-0 32.5
5. Pioneer 8-2 26 or Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 26 vs 4.Terra Nova 9-1 27.5 or Palma 8-2 27.5
6. Pioneer 8-2 26 or Sacred Heart Prep 8-2 26 vs 3. Terra Nova 9-1 27.5 or Palma 8-2 27.5
7. Half Moon Bay 5-5 19 vs 2. Aptos 10-0 31
Largest CBed – Pioneer 1619

At-Large Projections

1.Christopher 5-5 21
2.Cupertino 5-5 18.5
3.Bellarmine 3-7 18
4.Saint Ignatius 3-7 17 or Leland 3-7 17
5.Others: Sacred Heart Cathedral 3-7 16.5, Menlo 3-7 16.5; Aragon 2-8 16, Gilroy 2-8 15.5

Division IV
8. Evergreen Valley 7-3 16.5 vs 1. Overfelt 10-0 29
5. Monta Vista 8-2 22 vs 4. Santa Clara 7-3 22.5
6. Carlmont 8-2 21 or Silver Creek 7-3 21 vs 3. Alisal 7-3 23
7. Carlmont 8-2 21 or Silver Creek 7-3 21 vs 2. Independence 9-1 25
Smallest CBed - Overfelt 1673

Division V
8. Scotts Valley 7-3 21 or St. Francis Watsonville 8-2 21 vs 1. Carmel 10-0 27.5
5. Gonzales 10-0 23 vs 4. Kings Academy 8-2 24
6. Del Mar 8-2 22.5 vs 3. Monterey 9-1 25
7. Scotts Valley 7-3 21 or St. Francis Watsonville 8-2 21 vs 2. Burlingame 8-2 26
Highest CBed – Burlingame 1423

DeAnza
Big game last week was Palo Alto’s win over Milpitas. This week Palo Alto plays Wilcox with the winner likely to win the league. Calpreps gives these two teams the same ranking. Los Gatos also plays Milpitas this week which should settle third place in this league. No change of original projection of four automatic berths to Wilcox, Palo Alto, Los Gatos and Milpitas with Cupertino getting an at-large berth.

Mount Hamilton
Live Oak was a big winner over Pioneer and is the conference favorite over Oak Grove at this point. Live Oak, Oak Grove and Pioneer figure to get the top three spots with the final automatic berth coming down to Piedmont Hills and Leland. Somewhat of an upset that Leland lost its league opener to Lincoln by a wide margin.

Gabon
Salinas win over Palma was a bit of a surprise. Salinas seems to be rounding into form after a rough start to the season. Aptos is still the favorite to win the league. This weeks game between San Benito and Christopher could determine fourth place and the final automatic spot. The loser will still be well positioned for an at-large berth.

PAL Bay
League play hasn’t started yet. No real new insights from last weeks non-league games. Projection is for Menlo-Atherton to win the league with Terra Nova and Sacred Heart Prep favored to get automatic berths. Half Moon Bay will be a slight favorite over Aragon and Menlo for the final spot.

WCAL
No surprises here either. Still projecting St. Francis to win the league with Serra, Mitty and Valley Christian to get automatic berths. Saint Ignatius despite being winless is favored for the fifth spot and would likely make the play-offs at 3-7. The sixth place team which will likely be between Bellarmine and Sacred Heart Cathedral will also have a good shot at an at-large berth.

Division IV and V (B&C teams) Play-offs

The CCS has 5 B leagues where the top two finishers get automatic Play-off Spots and 3 C leagues where only the league champion gets an automatic berth. There are three at large berths for the remaining 43 teams based on CCS power points.

El Camino
Very competitive league among the top 5 teams (Saratoga, Santa Clara, Mountain View, Los Altos and Monta Vista). The only head to head match up so far in league saw Santa Clara beat Saratoga at Levi’s stadium and they are the early favorite to win the league title. Big games this week is Saratoga vs Mountain View and Los Altos vs Santa Clara. Monta Vista would have a good chance at an at-large bid if they finished third in the league.

Cypress
Monterey is the heavy favorite over a quarter of teams that should challenge for second among North Monterey County, King City, San Lorenzo Valley and St. Francis of Watsonville.

Mission
Carmel is a prohibitive favorite and should finish the season undefeated. Alisal would be favored for the second play-off spot with North Salinas and Scotts Valley in contention for an at-large spot for whoever finishes third.

Ocean
Burlingame and Kings Academy should have an easy time gaining the top two spots with Burlingame a slight favorite for the league title.

Santa Teresa
The league had a great preseason with 4 teams going 3-0 and the other 4 teams going 2-1 for a combined league record of 22-4 including 8-4 against A league teams. Overfelt and Independence should get the two automatic berths with Del Mar and Silver Creek both close behind and in contention for at-large spots.

Saint Lucia
Gonzales will win this league going away having already between the likely second place team Soquel. Only a game against non-league rival King City should stand between Gonzales and an undefeated regular season.

Lake
Carlmont, Capuchino and Jefferson will battle for the league championship and the only automatic
qualifying position with Carlmont as a slight favorite.

West Valley
This league struggled through a 2-22 preseason against non-league teams. This league is well balanced with Mt. Pleasant's upset over Sobrato in the league opener showing this league will be wide open with all teams almost evenly ranked. Current slight favorite is Evergreen Valley.
 
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Cal 14 said:
Also, if you recall a few years ago, their coach actually did not initially submit an application to advance to a state game. He had to be coaxed into it later.

I don't see them petitioning up.
Click to expand...
If they are healthy, there is a very good chance they opt up. Totally depends on health of the team. This years team is special and hitting on all cylinders. Top team in Monterey County.
 
If they are healthy, I would be shocked if they did not opt up. Golden is a great coach and he knows what kind of team he has this year.
 
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aztecpadre said:
If they are healthy, I would be shocked if they did not opt up. Golden is a great coach and he knows what kind of team he has this year.
Click to expand...
Seriously, Scotts Valley isn’t a bad squad and Carmel was up 46-7 at the half after giving up a TD on the opening kickoff. They backed off the gas for the 2nd half and running clock fkr the 4th Quarter.

I think Alisal may stay within 2-3 scores with their ball control offense, but if healthy this team will be competitive in the D3 Open if they choose to Opt up.
 
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aztecpadre said:
If they are healthy, I would be shocked if they did not opt up. Golden is a great coach and he knows what kind of team he has this year.
Click to expand...

I mentioned earlier that a coach probably shouldn’t base what they do based on what another team does, and ultimately I completely understand why Golden doesn’t like the equity league or the open divisions..... but after Salinas’ win over Palma I think Carmel really doesn’t have a choice here, provided they are healthy. His kids are going to look at that win by Salinas over Palma and, rightfully, think “we can win this thing (D3)”. Right or wrong, if he doesn’t opt up i think he runs a real risk of sending the message to his players (and their parents) that he doesn’t believe in them.
 
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SpeedCity51 said:
I mentioned earlier that a coach probably shouldn’t base what they do based on what another team does, and ultimately I completely understand why Golden doesn’t like the equity league or the open divisions..... but after Salinas’ win over Palma I think Carmel really doesn’t have a choice here, provided they are healthy. His kids are going to look at that win by Salinas over Palma and, rightfully, think “we can win this thing (D3)”. Right or wrong, if he doesn’t opt up i think he runs a real risk of sending the message to his players (and their parents) that he doesn’t believe in them.
Click to expand...

While I agree if healthy they could compete and maybe even win the D3 title, I disagree that he (Coach Anderson) would send the wrong message to the kids and parents. This man has built a fantastic program at CHS. The kids love playing for him and the parents respect him. No matter what decision he makes he will not alienate his team, just maybe a few posters on here.;)
 
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aztecpadre said:
If they are healthy, there is a very good chance they opt up. Totally depends on health of the team. This years team is special and hitting on all cylinders. Top team in Monterey County.
Click to expand...

Really? If Salinas were to play Carmel again, you'd still put your money on the Padres?

I seem to remember Mark Tennis suggesting that Milpitas was a lock in last year's Open D-I title game, too.
 
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