Following the preseason for all leagues (PAL still has another two weeks of non-league games) this looks like one of the easier seasons to handicap the play-offs for A leagues.
The CCS A league play-offs consists of 24 teams from the sections 37 teams that are in 5 A Leagues. The top 4 teams in each league get an automatic berth. The four teams with the most CCS points among the remaining 17 teams get an at-large bid. The one wrinkle is that a B league champion can opt up to the A league play-offs and that would bump the team with fewest CCS points to the lower division play-offs. The CCS sends all three of its open division play-off winners to regional play as well as two of the three runner-up teams (tie breaker based on head to head competition among all three runner-ups and absent that based on CCS regular season power points).
Projections
Division I
8. Cupertino 5-5 18.5 vs. 1. Wilcox 10-0 32
5. Salinas 6-4 23.5 vs 4. Los Gatos 7-3 25
6. San Benito 5-5 22 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28.5
7. Milpitas 5-5 19.5 vs 2. Palo Alto 9-1 30
Smallest CBed – Wilcox 1969
Division II
8. Christopher 5-5 20 or Aragon 4-6 20 vs 1. St. Francis 9-1 31
5. Oak Grove 6-4 23 vs 4. Mitty 6-4 23.5
6. Leland 5-5 22 vs 3. Serra 7-3 25
7. Christopher 5-5 20 or Aragon 4-6 20 vs 2. Valley Christian 7-3 26
Smallest CBed – Valley Christian 1629
Division III
8. Half Moon Bay 5-5 19 vs 1. Pioneer 10-0 31.5
5. Terra Nova 9-1 27.5 vs 4. Live Oak 9-1 29
6. Sacred Heart Prep 7-3 24 vs 3. Palma 9-1 29.5
7. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Aptos 10-0 31
Largest CBed – Pioneer 1619
DeAnza
Every year since 2011 the top four teams in the DeAnza have been Milpitas, Los Gatos, Wilcox and Palo Alto in some order. The one exception was 2014 when Saratoga took 4thplace and Palo Alto finished 5th. This year looks no different with Wilcox being the league favorite over Palo Alto and Los Gatos and Milpitas likely to finish third and fourth. Fremont and Homestead have lost decisively to a series of lower division teams. Cupertino at 3-1 will likely finish 5thand be in contention for an at-large berth at 5-5 and 18.5 points.
Mount Hamilton
This league is really down this year. Really the only difficult league to handicap at this point due to vastly different pre-season scheduling philosophies. Oak Grove and Leland have scheduled teams far above the quality of league opponents and have been blown out. Other teams such as Pioneer and Live Oak have scheduled B teams and lower level A teams and are 3-0.
At this point I see Oak Grove, Live Oak and Pioneer contending for the top three positions with an edge toward Pioneer as the most consistent team. Fourth place is likely to come down to 1-2 Leland and 0-3 Piedmont Hills with a couple of close losses to good B teams and a blow out loss to Terra Nova. Lincoln opts out of the play-offs and is unlikely to be in the top four anyway. Santa Teresa is 0-3 with three losses to B league teams and Westmont is 1-2 with two losses to B league teams and a narrow win over a weak C league team and will struggle in league play.
Pacific Coast Gabilan
Another league that usually sends the same teams to the play-offs year after year. This year Aptos should be a slight favorite over Palma for the league championship. The middle of the league might be competitive with an edge to Salinas and San Benito for third and fourth place over Christopher. Salinas and San Benito both saw some early season losses to good teams and showed well in their third game with wins over Milpitas and Los Gatos respectively. Christopher will be well positioned to get a berth as an at-large team by finishing fifth. Gilroy got blown out by Pioneer and Liberty and barely eked out a win over winless B league Soledad and will have a hard time finishing in the top four. Alvarez and Seaside are both winless with numerous losses to B league teams and figure to struggle in league play.
PAL -Bay
PAL-Bay still has a few weeks to go until league play starts. Menlo-Atherton and Terra Nova should compete for the league title. While Aragon has struggled with strong pre-season competition they should battle Sacred Heart Prep and Half Moon Bay for the third and fourth spots. Menlo looks like they will struggle in league with a small roster. Sacred Heart and Half Moon Bay will likely get an at-large berth if they finish fifth in the league.
WCAL
This is well covered in the WCAL thread. The league title should come down to St. Francis and Serra. The final two automatic spots should go to Mitty and Valley Christian. There should be an interesting battle for the next three places between SHC, Bellarmine and SI. SHC went 2-1 in pre-season and would get an -at-large berth with a 5thplace finish and be on the bubble in 6thplace. The 5th place team would have a good chance to gain an at-large berth. Riordan figures to struggle in league and while capable of upsetting a team in the tier above them, their defensive deficiencies make it unlikely that they compete for 5th place in this league.
The CCS A league play-offs consists of 24 teams from the sections 37 teams that are in 5 A Leagues. The top 4 teams in each league get an automatic berth. The four teams with the most CCS points among the remaining 17 teams get an at-large bid. The one wrinkle is that a B league champion can opt up to the A league play-offs and that would bump the team with fewest CCS points to the lower division play-offs. The CCS sends all three of its open division play-off winners to regional play as well as two of the three runner-up teams (tie breaker based on head to head competition among all three runner-ups and absent that based on CCS regular season power points).
Projections
Division I
8. Cupertino 5-5 18.5 vs. 1. Wilcox 10-0 32
5. Salinas 6-4 23.5 vs 4. Los Gatos 7-3 25
6. San Benito 5-5 22 vs 3. Menlo-Atherton 8-2 28.5
7. Milpitas 5-5 19.5 vs 2. Palo Alto 9-1 30
Smallest CBed – Wilcox 1969
Division II
8. Christopher 5-5 20 or Aragon 4-6 20 vs 1. St. Francis 9-1 31
5. Oak Grove 6-4 23 vs 4. Mitty 6-4 23.5
6. Leland 5-5 22 vs 3. Serra 7-3 25
7. Christopher 5-5 20 or Aragon 4-6 20 vs 2. Valley Christian 7-3 26
Smallest CBed – Valley Christian 1629
Division III
8. Half Moon Bay 5-5 19 vs 1. Pioneer 10-0 31.5
5. Terra Nova 9-1 27.5 vs 4. Live Oak 9-1 29
6. Sacred Heart Prep 7-3 24 vs 3. Palma 9-1 29.5
7. Sacred Heart Cathedral 5-5 20.5 vs 2. Aptos 10-0 31
Largest CBed – Pioneer 1619
DeAnza
Every year since 2011 the top four teams in the DeAnza have been Milpitas, Los Gatos, Wilcox and Palo Alto in some order. The one exception was 2014 when Saratoga took 4thplace and Palo Alto finished 5th. This year looks no different with Wilcox being the league favorite over Palo Alto and Los Gatos and Milpitas likely to finish third and fourth. Fremont and Homestead have lost decisively to a series of lower division teams. Cupertino at 3-1 will likely finish 5thand be in contention for an at-large berth at 5-5 and 18.5 points.
Mount Hamilton
This league is really down this year. Really the only difficult league to handicap at this point due to vastly different pre-season scheduling philosophies. Oak Grove and Leland have scheduled teams far above the quality of league opponents and have been blown out. Other teams such as Pioneer and Live Oak have scheduled B teams and lower level A teams and are 3-0.
At this point I see Oak Grove, Live Oak and Pioneer contending for the top three positions with an edge toward Pioneer as the most consistent team. Fourth place is likely to come down to 1-2 Leland and 0-3 Piedmont Hills with a couple of close losses to good B teams and a blow out loss to Terra Nova. Lincoln opts out of the play-offs and is unlikely to be in the top four anyway. Santa Teresa is 0-3 with three losses to B league teams and Westmont is 1-2 with two losses to B league teams and a narrow win over a weak C league team and will struggle in league play.
Pacific Coast Gabilan
Another league that usually sends the same teams to the play-offs year after year. This year Aptos should be a slight favorite over Palma for the league championship. The middle of the league might be competitive with an edge to Salinas and San Benito for third and fourth place over Christopher. Salinas and San Benito both saw some early season losses to good teams and showed well in their third game with wins over Milpitas and Los Gatos respectively. Christopher will be well positioned to get a berth as an at-large team by finishing fifth. Gilroy got blown out by Pioneer and Liberty and barely eked out a win over winless B league Soledad and will have a hard time finishing in the top four. Alvarez and Seaside are both winless with numerous losses to B league teams and figure to struggle in league play.
PAL -Bay
PAL-Bay still has a few weeks to go until league play starts. Menlo-Atherton and Terra Nova should compete for the league title. While Aragon has struggled with strong pre-season competition they should battle Sacred Heart Prep and Half Moon Bay for the third and fourth spots. Menlo looks like they will struggle in league with a small roster. Sacred Heart and Half Moon Bay will likely get an at-large berth if they finish fifth in the league.
WCAL
This is well covered in the WCAL thread. The league title should come down to St. Francis and Serra. The final two automatic spots should go to Mitty and Valley Christian. There should be an interesting battle for the next three places between SHC, Bellarmine and SI. SHC went 2-1 in pre-season and would get an -at-large berth with a 5thplace finish and be on the bubble in 6thplace. The 5th place team would have a good chance to gain an at-large berth. Riordan figures to struggle in league and while capable of upsetting a team in the tier above them, their defensive deficiencies make it unlikely that they compete for 5th place in this league.