Predicting Section Finials and Champions

[RespectBBGame]

Predicting Sections

SJS D1
SMS vs. ST FRANCIS
SMS Champion

D2
ANTELOPE vs Vanden
VANDEN Champion

D3
Rio Linda vs. Christian Brothers
Christian Champion

D4
Brookside vs Venture Academy
Brookside Champion

D5
Capital Christian vs Augonaut
Capital Christian Champion

NCS D1
Castro Valley vs Berkeley
Castro Valley Champion

NCS D2
Carondelet vs. Acalanes
Carondelet Champion

NCS D3
MM vs. BOD
MM Champion

NCS D4
Salesian vs Cardinal Newman
Salesian Champion

NCS D5
St. Joseph vs. Cloverdale
St. Joseph Champion

CCS Open
SHC vs. Miity
Mitty Champion

Anybody have any other prediction? ???

 

[Paytc]

Predicting Sections

SJS D1
SMS vs. ST FRANCIS
SMS Champion

D2
ANTELOPE vs Vanden
VANDEN Champion

D3
Rio Linda vs. Christian Brothers
Christian Champion

D4
Brookside vs Venture Academy
Brookside Champion

D5
Capital Christian vs Augonaut
Capital Christian Champion

NCS D1
Castro Valley vs Berkeley
Castro Valley Champion

NCS D2
Carondelet vs. Acalanes
Carondelet Champion

NCS D3
MM vs. BOD
MM Champion

NCS D4
Salesian vs Cardinal Newman
Salesian Champion

NCS D5
St. Joseph vs. Cloverdale
St. Joseph Champion

CCS Open
SHC vs. Miity
Mitty Champion

Anybody have any other prediction? ???

I predict your predictions are very close to flawless. However, I predict there may be a surprise or two. Enjoy the games !


Paytc

 

[jaymel911]

I predict your predictions are very close to flawless. However, I predict there may be a surprise or two. Enjoy the games !


Paytc

Antelope over Vanden

 

[SouthBayHoopFan]

Antelope v. Vanden - I'm personally rooting for Antelope because I'm a big fan of Sean Chambers, both the coach and the man.

But here's a little bit of analysis of the teams' MP ranking and schedule this year. (Disclaimer: I know the MP rankings are not perfect, but they're all we've got for this kind of data.)

Rank: Antelope 67, Vanden 389
Best win: Antelope - St Francis Sac 189, Vanden - SHC 110
Worst loss: Antelope - Consumnes Oaks 1189, Vanden - Sacred Heart (KY) 947
Games against Top 1000 - Antelope 3, Vanden - 14
Games against Top 100 - Antelope 0, Vanden 3

So maybe Antelope is the better team, but Vanden is more battle tested. In general, I usually expect the more battle tested team to prevail in the playoffs, all other things being equal. Hopefully for Antelope, all else is not equal.

 

[Paytc]

Antelope over Vanden

That would be a surprise. I am not familiar with Antelope. But I do believe Vanden is better than their record. If Vanden comes mentally ready to play, they have all of the physical athletism to play with just about anyone. And I would think tempo and key players staying out of foul trouble may be the difference. It sounds like the making for a good game.

Actually, the surprise I was also referring to was the games that take place before we automatically advance all of these teams. They all have a game to play before they reach the championship.


Paytc

 

[Paytc]

Antelope v. Vanden - I'm personally rooting for Antelope because I'm a big fan of Sean Chambers, both the coach and the man.

But here's a little bit of analysis of the teams' MP ranking and schedule this year. (Disclaimer: I know the MP rankings are not perfect, but they're all we've got for this kind of data.)

Rank: Antelope 67, Vanden 389
Best win: Antelope - St Francis Sac 189, Vanden - SHC 110
Worst loss: Antelope - Consumnes Oaks 1189, Vanden - Sacred Heart (KY) 947
Games against Top 1000 - Antelope 3, Vanden - 14
Games against Top 100 - Antelope 0, Vanden 3

So maybe Antelope is the better team, but Vanden is more battle tested. In general, I usually expect the more battle tested team to prevail in the playoffs, all other things being equal. Hopefully for Antelope, all else is not equal.

It sounds like you have seen Antelope play if you feel they are the "better team "? Because I don't think you can go by wins and losses (or even strength of schedule) because every game presents different matchup challenges. And some games have key players missing or in early foul trouble. Not to forget that some teams can only play one style and others can play uptempo, or a half court slow tempo game. I have never seen Antelope play, but perhaps they are very good?

Key players staying out of foul trouble may be a determining factor.. So each team needs to adjust to the way the game is called, or not called. Every game has its own personality. So it will be determined on the floor, not in the court of public opinion.

It sounds like the makings for a good game should they both advance to the championship.

Paytc

 

[kbrizzzle]

Southbay when you say "better team" how do you determine that? Do you mean team with the better record? Can you clarify, please?

Also, just because a team has a pretty record, doesnt make them better.

I'm loving the in-depth finals analysis for D2. Gotta get there first though, and being that Antelope has a tough game in a tough enviroment tomorrow (UOP is not kind to 3 point shooting teams) it could all be for naught...just sayin!!

 

[SouthBayHoopFan]

Paytc and kbrizzle,

Slow down fellows, you seem to be a little anxious this morning. I said "So maybe Antelope is the better team, but Vanden is more battle tested." To break it down, the first part of the sentence means that MAYBE Antelope is the better team. In part it was a reference to the top of the post where I included Rank: Antelope 67, Vanden 389. Understand that when one says that MAYBE Antelope is the better team, it's sort of implied that they're also saying "maybe they're not". What isn't really up for discussion is which team played the tougher schedule. So as I said, I'm rooting for Antelope, but my experience has been that battle tested teams do better in the playoffs. (And yes, both teams have to win to get to the finals. But I was responding to a post that had already "predicted" the finals matchups. So I'll choose not to take responsibility for that bit.)

 

[Paytc]

Paytc and kbrizzle,

Slow down fellows, you seem to be a little anxious this morning. I said "So maybe Antelope is the better team, but Vanden is more battle tested." To break it down, the first part of the sentence means that MAYBE Antelope is the better team. In part it was a reference to the top of the post where I included Rank: Antelope 67, Vanden 389. Understand that when one says that MAYBE Antelope is the better team, it's sort of implied that they're also saying "maybe they're not". What isn't really up for discussion is which team played the tougher schedule. So as I said, I'm rooting for Antelope, but my experience has been that battle tested teams do better in the playoffs. (And yes, both teams have to win to get to the finals. But I was responding to a post that had already "predicted" the finals matchups. So I'll choose not to take responsibility for that bit.)

I was not rushing to judgement as I saw the word "maybe" in there. I said what I did to see if perhaps you had seen Antelope play before and based on that came to a better conclusion. I also saw you had given Vanden a strength of schedule edge. I have never seen Antelope play. So I was kind of inquiring to get an opinion from someone who had. If anyone has seen Antelope and Vanden play...... how will they matchup if they both advance?

 

[ClayK]

So I thought I'd look at Vanden. They've won 13 straight against weak opposition.

Their eight losses:

Archbishop Wood, playing for the Pennsylvania 2A championship after beating previously top ten in the nation Neumann-Goretti

La Jolla Country Day 23-4 in San Diego Open semifinal

Sacred Heart of Louisville 22-7 won Regional in Kentucky

Carondelet twice (60-46 in Phoenix; 66-59 in WCJ)

Clovis West 27-3, moving along in Central Section playoffs

Bishop Gorman 27-2, just lost to Centennial in Nevada playoffs

Oaks Christian 20-8, still alive in SoCal

One thing about strength of schedule: It can reflect a few games against really good teams or a lot of games against pretty good teams. Vanden has played a bunch of really good teams -- and they've beaten Lincoln (21-7), SHC, Palisades (23-8), Modesto Christian (21-7) and Inderkum (21-7). So arbitrarily, let's say they are 5-8 against quality teams, which shows

a) They are capable of beating good teams
b) But they are equally capable of losing to a good team.

Antelope qualifies as a good team, so this is a definite maybe. I'm going to go with Vanden, though, because not only did the team play better teams this year, they're used to going deep in postseason.

But I wouldn't be surprised if Antelope won either ...

 

[gametimeboys]

I see Vanden moving past Elk Grove, but Antelope getting past Sac is going to take a huge team effort. Coaching and player rivalries exist between the two teams and they are both relatively young teams. Composure and free throws will win this game. Will be fun to watch. Still surprised Sac and Elk Grove were not flip-flopped in their initial seeds. I see Sac as the better team. As for Vanden vs Antelope, toss up. Sac/Antelope will provide some good info on to Antelope's ability to play deep in the playoffs.

 

[Paytc]

I see Vanden moving past Elk Grove, but Antelope getting past Sac is going to take a huge team effort. Coaching and player rivalries exist between the two teams and they are both relatively young teams. Composure and free throws will win this game. Will be fun to watch. Still surprised Sac and Elk Grove were not flip-flopped in their initial seeds. I see Sac as the better team. As for Vanden vs Antelope, toss up. Sac/Antelope will provide some good info on to Antelope's ability to play deep in the playoffs.

gametimeboys,

Thanks for the insight. I didn't know Antelope was playing Sac in the semi finals. Yeah that could be a challenge for Antelope. After looking at the one loss that Antelope has it was to Consumes Oaks in the team's 3rd matchup, after Antelope won the first two by 39 and 23 respectively. Then Consumes Oaks just got blown out by Mc Clatchy. I know different teams create different matchup problems, and head to head is the best determining factor.... But I sincerely don't think Mc Clatchy (who is a good team) would blow Vanden out. Perhaps Antelope sat their best players in the last Cosumnes Oaks game? Or perhaps Consumes Oaks didn't have 1 0r 2 of their players when they played Antelope in the 1st two games?

Or perhaps Antelope would have matched up better with McClatchy than Consumes Oaks did?

I would be able to make a much better prediction if I had seen Antelope play before. But based on my research and having seen Vanden play, I would think Vanden shouldn't have much trouble. Unless they come out cold and get a few key players in foul trouble early. Or the game is called in a way that gives Antelope a better advantage? But again, they both have a game to play before automatically advancing them.

 

[jaymel911]

Battle tested in December does not win you a game in March. Experience overcoming adversity throughout the season can better prepare you for certain. Shying away from any competition all season can get you beat in March. Vanden best win is against Lincoln. If antelope beats sac I am taking antelope

 

[Paytc]

Battle tested in December does not win you a game in March. Experience overcoming adversity throughout the season can better prepare you for certain. Shying away from any competition all season can get you beat in March. Vanden best win is against Lincoln. If antelope beats sac I am taking antelope

Yeah, I would be impressed too......... "if " (the biggest little word in the world) Antelope beats Sac. And I would then without seeing Antelope be a bit more convinced of how good they are. Again, as I have continuously said..... I have not seen Antelope play. I'm not aware of even one of their players. I'm sure they must have a few really good players. And they may be a really good team? An impressive win over Sac will certainly turn a few more heads. And.... both Sac and Vanden are certainly beatable.

 

[RespectBBGame]

Jaymel911

Battle test is good for teams to learn their weakness and has heart to fight in the big games.Teams can work on the weakness and nothing will hit them in their face when put in that position again. Teams that have been battle tested always do well in playoffs. So saying battle test doesn't mean anything you are very wrong.

 

[earthquakes]

Antelope is a young perimeter oriented team that likes to shoot the 3. They have a number of girls that are not bashful about shooting and when they are on they can be difficult to defend. They are also aggressive on the offensive glass and the big thing that can separate them from others is the physicality of their guards. They are about 9-10 deep and the guards they bring off the bench can shoot but they are streaky.

In order to beat them you need to understand where their shooters are and you must box out the guards on the long shots. Their post presence is not strong, so if they are not shooting well, and a team has a good interior presence that can be a trouble spot.

I have not seen Vanden play so cannot speak to them. Rumor has it that there were a few girls sick on Antelope's team when they lost to Consumnes Oaks. About that time there was a flu bug that hit the Roseville/Rocklin area pretty hard which impacted a few schools in the area.

 

[jaymel911]

Jaymel911

Battle test is good for teams to learn their weakness and has heart to fight in the big games.Teams can work on the weakness and nothing will hit them in their face when put in that position again. Teams that have been battle tested always do well in playoffs. So saying battle test doesn't mean anything you are very wrong.

Read my entire post - my point is playing a couple tough games in December does not win you games in March! But I also added avoiding competition will get you beat.

 

[RespectBBGame]

Its going to be a well faught game last possession will win the game. Good luck to both teams. I pick St Francis over Oak Ridge because Tia Hays is back and playing she never had a break.

 

[Paytc]

Antelope is a young perimeter oriented team that likes to shoot the 3. They have a number of girls that are not bashful about shooting and when they are on they can be difficult to defend. They are also aggressive on the offensive glass and the big thing that can separate them from others is the physicality of their guards. They are about 9-10 deep and the guards they bring off the bench can shoot but they are streaky.

In order to beat them you need to understand where their shooters are and you must box out the guards on the long shots. Their post presence is not strong, so if they are not shooting well, and a team has a good interior presence that can be a trouble spot.

I have not seen Vanden play so cannot speak to them. Rumor has it that there were a few girls sick on Antelope's team when they lost to Consumnes Oaks. About that time there was a flu bug that hit the Roseville/Rocklin area pretty hard which impacted a few schools in the area.

earthquakes,

Thanks for providing a bit of insight on Antelope. I have never seen them play in person, and know very little about the team.
And having even one of your key players out can make a huge difference in floor leadership, team chemistry, and the outcome of a game.

I think gametimeboys said it best " As for Vanden vs Antelope, toss up. Sac/Antelope will provide some good info on to Antelope's ability to play deep in the playoffs."

I have seen Vanden play on several occasions for a couple of years now and they can score inside and out. They can also bring a bit of pressure on defense. As I said in a previous post.... " if Vanden comes mentally prepared to play, they can run with just about anyone in Norcal."

Again Sac vs antelope should give everyone a clearer picture of what to expect in the championship game.

 

[ClayK]

Vanden's wins over Palisades and Sacred Heart Cathedral are pretty good as well ...

But you never know. Sometimes losing a lot of games makes a team less confident, regardless of the level of opposition, and sometimes winning a lot of games helps players believe they will figure out a way to win one way or another.

 

[Paytc]

Vanden's wins over Palisades and Sacred Heart Cathedral are pretty good as well ...

But you never know. Sometimes losing a lot of games makes a team less confident, regardless of the level of opposition, and sometimes winning a lot of games helps players believe they will figure out a way to win one way or another.

Clay,

That is for the most part very true. That is why some coaches purposely arrange for an easier schedule so their team gains confidence. It really boils down to the individual group your working with and knowing what buttons motivate them. The flip side is some coaches feel based on the group they have that setting up a tougher schedule will better prepare their team down the stretch? It's the Win Anyway philosophy. Both approaches can work, but each coach has to make the decision they feel is right. Even a false sense of confidence beats a lack of confidence, especially in girls basketball.

I again think if each team can advance then there is a need for more discussion. I don't put too much emphasis on team records. It comes down to how you match up, playing well on the big stage under pressure, and hitting your peak performance at the right time. And as you have said before shots falling can give you confidence and take the steam out of the other team's sails. Cold nights shooting can make everything fall on how much heart you have, and how bad you want to gut it out. You know..... a test of character aka..... to see what your made of.

 

[colhenrylives]

The Vanden roster is loaded with strong individual talent. They are tall, athletic and deep. Their record should be better. But there may be good reasons why things haven't panned out as hoped.

 

[ClayK]

One reason is that schedule -- and another is that they went to Phoenix, didn't play well the first couple days and then, at that tournament, there's no mercy. In the higher brackets, one of which Vanden was in, every team is very good. After all, they played Carondelet for 15th place ... if you lose your focus/confidence/whatever, you're done.

 

[Azanna]

it's been a long day today but I feel that Antelope is ready. It is now up to the Girls and the coach. If they show up and I think they will Sunday morning they will be SJS Section champs Div. II. Like someone said earlier, all questions will be answered

Go Titans !!!!!!

 

[myko98]

Predicting Sections

SJS D1
SMS vs. ST FRANCIS
SMS Champion

D2
ANTELOPE vs Vanden
VANDEN Champion

D3
Rio Linda vs. Christian Brothers
Christian Champion

D4
Brookside vs Venture Academy
Brookside Champion

D5
Capital Christian vs Augonaut
Capital Christian Champion

NCS D1
Castro Valley vs Berkeley
Castro Valley Champion

NCS D2
Carondelet vs. Acalanes
Carondelet Champion

NCS D3
MM vs. BOD
MM Champion

NCS D4
Salesian vs Cardinal Newman
Salesian Champion

NCS D5
St. Joseph vs. Cloverdale
St. Joseph Champion

CCS Open
SHC vs. Miity
Mitty Champion

Anybody have any other prediction? ???

 

[myko98]

I agree with most of these. The one interesting game might be Alameda Acalanes. Acalanes will be favorite but Alameda might pull an upset.

 

[hoopwilla]

Antelope is a young perimeter oriented team that likes to shoot the 3. They have a number of girls that are not bashful about shooting and when they are on they can be difficult to defend. They are also aggressive on the offensive glass and the big thing that can separate them from others is the physicality of their guards. They are about 9-10 deep and the guards they bring off the bench can shoot but they are streaky.

In order to beat them you need to understand where their shooters are and you must box out the guards on the long shots. Their post presence is not strong, so if they are not shooting well, and a team has a good interior presence that can be a trouble spot.

I have not seen Vanden play so cannot speak to them. Rumor has it that there were a few girls sick on Antelope's team when they lost to Consumnes Oaks. About that time there was a flu bug that hit the Roseville/Rocklin area pretty hard which impacted a few schools in the area.

I try to use stats also when unable to see enough live games. It always leads to the same deeper questions you raised. I can help. Cosumnes Oaks won the game vs Antelope. But Antelope wins 9 times out of 10, if they don't have an off game and CO has a great game. CO has very good players but no depth, and focus really on academics- 3 of those seniors are far above 4.0, and have carried 4.8 & 4.9 GPAs. On the hoop side, they ball out too because 4 CO players played for JBS, so really that's also a victory for Sean at the same time. He treated mine very well. That said, CO won because they shot 76% from the 3, with three players shooting 100% from the three. Antelope shot their normal number & percentage from the 3, but one player put up a few more than normal. Been around all those girls for years, so want em all to do well.

 

[Azanna]

68 60 Antelope

 

[gametimeboys]

Wow! Antelope made it happen. Down, foul trouble, and found a way to win. Vanden is similar to Sac athlete wise, but makes more shots. The team that takes care of the ball, hits free throws, and stays out of foul trouble prevails. 3 man crews have already put some of the best players on the bench.

 

[northbaybbguru]

With the Oak Ridge loss that opens up a spot in the SJS for a different open team or 2.

I don't think Oak Ridge was 27 pts worse than SF. I think they may have caught a little OPEN FEVER. As EVERYONE had Oak Ridge in the OPEN if they won that game tonight.

The SJS is sending more than 1 team(SMS) to the open......who will the 2nd or possibly 3rd teams be now?

 

[jaymel911]

Open fever! I love it......

 

[SouthBayHoopFan]

SMS and Brookside will be in from SJS. Mitty and Pinewood will be in from CCS. Miramonte, Salesian, BOD, and Carondelet will be in from NCS.

 

[northbaybbguru]

SMS and Brookside will be in from SJS. Mitty and Pinewood will be in from CCS. Miramonte, Salesian, BOD, and Carondelet will be in from NCS.

assuming the seedings hold as predicted....and no one drives a "tank' to their section finals or catches a late case of OPEN FEVER I would agree with you Southbay that those are the 8.

based on the assumptions of no intrasection 1st round games....

My seedings would be.....

1 SMS
2) MM
3) Mitty
4) Pinewood...beat Salesian gets the nod as 4
5) Salesian...section champ gets nod over O'dowd
6) O'dowd
7) Brookside Christian....has to go here because Salesian and O'Dowd cant play MM in 1st round.
8) Clet

I think that has to be the logical seedings......


P.S. As I look a little closer.... Pinewood (4) and Brookside(7) could conceivably be switched with Salesian moving to the 4 and BC being the 5.

in other words....how much weight do they give the section champs?

 

[jaymel911]

Pinewood has wins over both BOD and Salesian.

 

[RespectBBGame]

Northbay
You are forgetting one thing what if Vaden wins D2 over Antelope does that put them in the open. So far I missed on 2 finials Pinewood and West campus. Oak Ridge had stage fright but can you real say that I don't think so St. Francis is the better team Tia Hays is the real deal.

If Vanden wins they will be in the Open for state but if they don't Brookside will be in the Open. Brookside would love 6 seed to face Mitty again with Different results. But if Brookside gets in the Open they will be the 7 seed.

1) SMS
2) MM
3) Mitty
4) Pinewood
5) Salesian
6) BOD
7) Vanden / Brookside
8) Carondelet

I called this early this except Carondelet! !!!

 

[Paytc]

68 60 Antelope

You called it !

 

[Paytc]

Wow! Antelope made it happen. Down, foul trouble, and found a way to win. Vanden is similar to Sac athlete wise, but makes more shots. The team that takes care of the ball, hits free throws, and stays out of foul trouble prevails. 3 man crews have already put some of the best players on the bench.

That is the mark of a good team. To fight harder down the stretch in the second half when the game counts the most. I didn't see the game but based on the box score they out scored Sac in the third and 4th quarters.

 

[jaymel911]

The mark of a good team is one that comes out prepared and jumps on teams early as well.

 

[Paytc]

The mark of a good team is one that comes out prepared and jumps on teams early as well.

That is true. But to not get discouraged and battle till the end is most impressive. Just as a child who is spoon fed (with the support of two parents) and goes on to conquer the world is impressive, yet not even close to as impressive as a child who was abandoned, moved from one foster home or group home to another, who also conquers the world.

The latter is a much better "Win Anyway " example in my book.

I didn't see the game. Perhaps the Sac coach made the mistake that many coaches make and took his foot off the gas before the team was thoroughly put away?


Paytc

 

[RespectBBGame]

There is question to asked. The question does a 31-1 get put b in the Open with a section win or do they put a 24-8 that wins their section????