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LWinslow1973 · Nov 11, 2024

ArmchairGOAT said:
Admission standards appear a bit draconian and elitist. There's so many boys coming out of grammar school that had Bs and Cs and actually performed very well academically as they matured in high school. Riordan's program has 80% of its players on the honor roll - many for the first time. John Tofi is a Cal commit with a 4.0 gpa. And jr Mike Mitchell carries a 4.0 gpa and recently committed to Vanderbilt.

To be fair.. 4.0 really depends on the academic rigor of the school itself. a 4.0 at DeAnza community college is not the same as a 4.0 at Stanford. So the real test will be how he fairs at the collegiate level academically with the Riordan education system. I dont know enough about either school but just basing it on GPA is ludicrous..

Cal 14 · Nov 11, 2024

winetot said:
The problem is not with the seedings, it's with the NCS in general. There is a clear disparity up and down the section(as it runs from East Bay through North Bay up to Del Norte). The ability to categorize a true strength of schedule with the current number system is off. The farther Northern schools, somehow, are credited with higher schedule strength AND only play each other.

I don't disagree that the more closed a system is, the more difficult it is for the Calpreps system to accurately gauge the strength of the teams. I believe there is an adjustment for the Northern Section, but I don't think there would be one for the northern portion of the North Coast Section. That said...

Cardinal Newman played:
- Vacaville, #2 team from the Monticello Empire, winner in the first round of the SJS D-II playoffs... beat them by 18.
- Bishop O'Dowd, champs of the West Alameda County-Foothill division, #4 seed in the NCS D-2 playoffs... beat them by 56.
- Pleasant Valley, champs of the Easter League, #1 seed of the NS D-II (top division) playoffs... beat them by 27.

Marin Catholic played:
- Inderkum, co-champ of the Capital Valley league, #4 seed of the SJS D-I playoffs... lost by 26.
- St. Mary's, champs of the Tri-City league, #2 seed of the SJS D-II playoffs... lost by 13.
- Manteca, champs of the Valley Oak league, #4 seed of the SJS D-II playoffs... beat them by 1 (gave them their only loss).
- Edison (Stockton), #2 team from the Tri-City league, #9 seed of the SJS D-I playoffs... beat them by 10.

San Marin played:
- Foothill (Palo Cedro), tied for 2nd in the Eastern League, #2 seed of the NS D-II playoffs... beat them by 20.

Windsor played:
- Campolindo, tied for 3rd in the Diablo-Foothill division, #3 seed of the NCS D-3 playoffs... beat them by 19.

I think we can both agree that the RE-A top teams went out of the area and demonstrated that their ratings were not due to a closed system.

winetot said:
In reality, the new adopted system does not nor will it be the same as it is with the CCS. Competitive Equity with a D2 size school playing down to a D4 enrollment base makes no sense. We will start seeing more transfers.

Alisal is the #2 seed of the CCS D-V playoffs. The school's enrollment is 2900. I can assure you that no one is transferring to Alisal for some sort of athletic competitive edge over small schools. Even if athletes started doing so, the team would start to do better and they'd no longer be in D-V. They were in D-III last year.

The largest school in the Pacific Coast-Gabilan division is Hollister at 3450 students. The Haybalers tied for 6th place (out of 7 teams... tied for last).

The real problem with this is the continued reliance on enrollment equating to team strength.

winetot said:
Outside of Marin Catholic, Cardinal Newman and San Marin, I think St. Vincent de Paul was the only other school to get BUMPED UP divisions. All others went down divisions.

Not true. Bishop O'Dowd is a base D-4 team who is competing in the D-2 playoffs.

Of course, you do understand that if Cardinal Newman and Marin Catholic move to the Open division, other teams will naturally have to drop as a result, right?

FBAddict · Nov 11, 2024

Thanks for the info... Although not the end-all indicator of future years' success, historically these type of stats are important factors for future success.

This data suggests we will continue to see SF and JS dominance, VC and SI filling the upper middle level, AR in flux, with AM, BCP and SHC toward the bottom. There will be plenty of variables to consider before next season, such as percentage of returning varsity players, transfers in & out, existing players quitting and existing students playing next year that didn't play this year. And there is a step up in physical maturity changes being drastic for some players and only some for other players between 16 years old and 18 years old.

Here is my far too early WCAL rankings for next year:
#1 JS (or SF)
#2 SF (or JS)
#3 VC (or SI/AR)
#4 SI (or VC/AR)
#5 AR (or VC/SI)
#6 AM
#7 SHC (or BCP)
#8 BCP (or SHC) We should see a definite up tick for BCP but maybe not enough to push out of the bottom three.

Cal 14 · Nov 11, 2024

observer22 said:
I’m all for using rankings as a guide, but there needs to be some common sense applied. Amador Valley is a way better fit in the top bracket than San Marin. Nobody would have batted an eye if they were reversed.

As with the same argument I've used elsewhere: everyone knew the rules before the season started. It was literally written into the NCS bylaws what the application of the Calpreps ratings was going to be.

After Brexit passed in the UK, do you know what the #1 Google search in that country reportedly was the day after the election?

"What is Brexit?"

It's up to the member of the organization to stay informed. They don't get to complain about it after the fact.

salgovernaleisaturtle · Nov 11, 2024

MTsince2004 said:
One tweak to your idea could be to maybe create "enrollment" categories then create the division within those. Lump D1-D3 schools in a larger schools category and smaller schools in another.

There still has to be some weight given to school size. At the end of the regular season, Monterey Trail was ranked outside the top 16. In the 17-32 spots are teams that are down in D6. They certainly are very good teams, but it just seems inherently unfair to force them to play so far above their classification when they haven't gotten there through the continued success rule.

However, I don't think the Section wants to do any of this. I have long held the belief that they want the top 8-10 schools spread out through the divisions so that the SJS fairs better in the regional games. I also think the other sections see this as well, which is why the decision was made to pair Grant and Rocklin last year. There is no way Grant should have been in D3 and everyone knew it. The results of the game proved it.

agree...
1. i think enrollment is still a philosophical playoff principle the sjs will hold onto
2. since only section winners are eligible for state, it makes sense to not cannabalize their talent

even an open division that allows the finalists to advance would make for 1 or 2 more smaller school teams that would've won a lower division section to not qualify.

however, with grant last year, I don't think that was intentional, unless they tweaked the seeding process knowing grant would be D3 and that being the sole purpose. I do think they knew the new (old) seeding process increased the chances of a good team not facing folsom, though. I think they got lucky with grant in d3, cuz enrollments worked out.

colhenrylives · Nov 11, 2024

It should be noted that San Mateo's powerhouse senior RB Emmanuel Fitzgerald, a 6-2, 225-pound man-child in pads, rumbled for 247 rushing yards and three touchdowns vs. the Panthers. He ran through, over and around the Burlingame defenders much of the day. There was no answer for him. Up next for SM and Fitzgerald: Carmel in CCS playoffs.

winetot · Nov 11, 2024

Cal 14 said:
... which was mostly what was in the NCS bylaws.

The only people who cry more about the seedings than NCS people are SS people.

The problem is not with the seedings, it's with the NCS in general. There is a clear disparity up and down the section(as it runs from East Bay through North Bay up to Del Norte). The ability to categorize a true strength of schedule with the current number system is off. The farther Northern schools, somehow, are credited with higher schedule strength AND only play each other. In this system smaller schools in D7 are going to get the short end of the stick. It is easy to say, just play them, beat them and then problem solved. However, schools are working with budgets and many do not see the cost benefit in sending their teams(ANY SPORTS) on 3 to 4 hour trips. In reality, the new adopted system does not nor will it be the same as it is with the CCS. Competitive Equity with a D2 size school playing down to a D4 enrollment base makes no sense. We will start seeing more transfers. The kids that will get hurt will be truly the small school kids. Outside of Marin Catholic, Cardinal Newman and San Marin, I think St. Vincent de Paul was the only other school to get BUMPED UP divisions. All others went down divisions. What makes the most sense in the NCS is the BEST play Open(that does not have to be 8 teams). But all those teams have a chance to move on even after a loss within their respected division. Then all other schools are placed in their appropriate enrollment division. At some point common sense should be taken into consideration.

colhenrylives · Nov 11, 2024

Here are the final 2024 composite totals (league only) for the eight WCAL teams' programs (varsity, JV and frosh):

St. Francis, 15-4
Serra, 15-4
Valley Christian, 12-7
St. Ignatius, 10-9
Riordan (no frosh), 6-8
Mitty, 6-13
Bellarmine, 4-15
Sacred Heart Cathedral (no frosh), 3-11

SF and SI tied for the varsity championship.
Serra won the JV crown undefeated.
SF won the frosh title undefeated.

observer22 · Nov 11, 2024

Cal 14 said:
... which was mostly what was in the NCS bylaws.

The only people who cry more about the seedings than NCS people are SS people.

I’m all for using rankings as a guide, but there needs to be some common sense applied. Amador Valley is a way better fit in the top bracket than San Marin. Nobody would have batted an eye if they were reversed.

Rocknrolus 95361 · Nov 10, 2024

Larno51 said:
No one in the section is going to come close to beating Folsom. Turlock shut down Downey 33-14, their only loss. Turlock lost to Folsom 56-14.

I have seen both play. I am aware. Just pointing out to Carl the measure of the tape!

Larno51 · Nov 10, 2024

Rocknrolus 95361 said:
Looking at the match up with Folson would look close. Almost same total yards and points. And Lamb is throwing for more yards. Plaa has his passing game down. If you had a defense! Got to score 44 because you gave up 41. Fun to watch too!

No one in the section is going to come close to beating Folsom. Turlock shut down Downey 33-14, their only loss. Turlock lost to Folsom 56-14.

Larno51 · Nov 10, 2024

Rocknrolus 95361 said:
Looking at the match up with Folson would look close. Almost same total yards and points. And Lamb is throwing for more yards. Plaa has his passing game down. If you had a defense! Got to score 44 because you gave up 41. Fun to watch too!

Larno51 · Nov 10, 2024

Rocknrolus 95361 said:
Looking at the match up with Folson would look close. Almost same total yards and points. And Lamb is throwing for more yards. Plaa has his passing game down. If you had a defense! Got to score 44 because you gave up 41. Fun to watch too!

Cal 14 · Nov 10, 2024

observer22 said:
Edit - Looking at MaxPreps rankings, it appears the NCS committee took the lazy way out, and seeded the Open/D1 bracket exactly according to MP rankings, with the exception of El Cerrito who was excluded from the playoffs.

... which was mostly what was in the NCS bylaws.

The only people who cry more about the seedings than NCS people are SS people.

bella123 · Nov 10, 2024

larry legend33 said:
Terrible. Absolute Joke. Should have been 4 teams.

winetot said:
The unfortunate reality is there is not a perfect system. I, personally, think the NCS has been screwing up EVERY sport for years. They have never put thought into their selection committees and it is, unfortunately, a "good ol boy" organization. They pretend to hide behind what they say is black and white but ultimately it has been a narcissistically run organization for decades. Three North Bay schools being in the Open is comical, especially if you are going to position Vintage High School as the #8 seed in Division 2. Vintage handily beat San Marin 1 week ago. Vintage lost to a Las Lomas team this year who was beaten by Northgate, Clayton Valley Charter and Campolindo. How in the WORLD is San Marin #8. This is what most people in our area call EAST BAY BIAS. We all can almost hear, "do whatever you can to keep us away from De La Salle." The NCS administrative team should be embarrassed but they do not care because they are focusing on NFHS and Gate monies for themselves....... UNFORTUNATE

Adds to the argument to get rid of the sections.

Rocknrolus 95361 · Nov 10, 2024

carlmerritt said:
It’s probably a crazy idea, but what if the SJS only used CalPreps ratings for their playoff structure? It would look something like this:
D1: Top 16 teams. No bye weeks. Week one of Playoffs: #16 at #1, #15 at #2, etc

D2: Next best 16 teams: #17 through #33.

D3: Next best 16 teams: #34 through #50.

D4: Next best 16 teams: #51 through #67.

D5: Next best 16 teams: #68 through #84.

D6: Next best 16 teams: #85 through 101.

Or: Same as above, except add an Open Division with Cal Prep's teams #1 through #4, and move Division 1 to teams #4 through #20, Division 2 to teams #21 through #37, and so on…

If two teams have the same CalPreps ratings, a coin flip would determine the higher seed, with the coin flip winner deciding if they prefer the higher seed or lower seed. If the same rating occured between #16 and #17, the coin flip winner would have the option of being the lowest seed in D1 or highest seed in D2. This would be a playoff system based only on competitive equity as determined by Cal Preps.
The other thing that would be interesting would be to put all 10 weeks’ scores for every high school in California or the USA for that matter that plays 11-man football and ask an AI engine like Chat GPT-4 to determine a ranking system. I’m sure it could be designed to even include player stats and if certain players were injured, etc.

Looking at the match up with Folson would look close. Almost same total yards and points. And Lamb is throwing for more yards. Plaa has his passing game down. If you had a defense! Got to score 44 because you gave up 41. Fun to watch too!

MTsince2004 · Nov 10, 2024

larry legend33 said:
MT vs OR this week. Pretty tough game for OR. MT line looks really good (offensive) but giving up 34 to Lincoln is a little concerning.
Not sure there is a team playing better than OR right now given where they were 5 weeks ago. Could be wet Friday night so the team that can take care of the ball is likley the winner.

Hopefully, it's a good one!

observer22 · Nov 10, 2024

Looking at the bracket, there is no reason at all for San Marin to be in the Open/D1 bracket, much less facing DLS! Liberty finished 2nd to Pitt in a D1 league! Amador Valley would have also been a much better choice, as not only did they just force Cal into OT Friday, but they were the only EBAL Mountain team not to face DLS this year. This would/should have been their chance. Instead they get rewarded for losing, and placed down into the D2 bracket.

As far as 3-4-5-6 go, I’d much rather see CN play SRV & Cal play MC than have 2 rematches of league games that were just played a couple of weeks ago. Cal’s only 2 losses this year were to DLS & SRV. CN’s only loss was to MC. Sure it’s great they get another shot for revenge, but there’s only so many games in a season, why not allow them to play some other teams?

Edit - Looking at MaxPreps rankings, it appears the NCS committee took the lazy way out, and seeded the Open/D1 bracket exactly according to MP rankings, with the exception of El Cerrito who was excluded from the playoffs.

Cal 14 · Nov 10, 2024

While I am surprised the NCS kept San Marin in D-1/Open, I think there is one thing on which most people would/should agree... the top division should be for the top teams from the top leagues. Am I right?

Am I right?

Yes?

Ok, but here's the problem with that... Redwood Empire-Adobe was the 2nd best league in the section this year. San Marin vs Liberty... are the Lions better? Liberty is certainly a bigger school, but I don't know that we can say they're better. Will the Lions rip through D-2? I don't think so. Would San Marin? Well, it might depend on what you think about that result against Vintage. Even if the NCS adopted a similar A-, B-, C-, and D-league scheme like in the CCS rather than using enrollment, you'd still probably end up with the same result. I mean, the RE-A is certainly better than the MHAL!

My own alma mater took 2nd in a CCS A-league, but was placed as the #8 seed in D-I/Open while a higher ranked/rated (Cal-Hi/Calpreps), A-league champion gets to be the #1 seed in D-II. It does suck, but in any of these competitive equity divisions, the cutoff has to be somewhere.

In my opinion, the issue is not that the NCS has a large number of small schools, but rather that it doesn't have a large number of good teams coming out of the big schools. The section was really top-heavy with more than solid De La Salle/Pittsburg, and a few really good teams in San Ramon Valley, Marin Catholic, and Cardinal Newman. Then the next several that could be largely interchangeable. In both the CCS and NCS, there is a strong argument that the top 8 teams in the respective sections really are in those top divisions.

NCS people have been spoiled far too long with having enrollment-based divisions where the same teams got to pound the same teams for section titles. Say what you will about San Marin being a small school with 1200 students, but CCS #6 in D-I (Soquel) is even smaller at 1096. Yet, no one is really complaining about that.

I don't really know that I have a lot of pity for the section, though. Yes, DLS remains the giant elephant in the room, but in the last few years, two teams from the CCS and SJS each have been able to beat them. But no one from the NCS? Hey, maybe this will finally be the year!

larry legend33 · Nov 10, 2024

bearphan said:
MC may be without starting JR QB Caedon Afsharipour vs Newman which will definitely have a significant impact. They're probably also still missing WR Braiden Bachich-Dixon too.

That stinks. If Newman can't win with those guys out, they may never beat MC.

winetot · Nov 10, 2024

The unfortunate reality is there is not a perfect system. I, personally, think the NCS has been screwing up EVERY sport for years. They have never put thought into their selection committees and it is, unfortunately, a "good ol boy" organization. They pretend to hide behind what they say is black and white but ultimately it has been a narcissistically run organization for decades. Three North Bay schools being in the Open is comical, especially if you are going to position Vintage High School as the #8 seed in Division 2. Vintage handily beat San Marin 1 week ago. Vintage lost to a Las Lomas team this year who was beaten by Northgate, Clayton Valley Charter and Campolindo. How in the WORLD is San Marin #8. This is what most people in our area call EAST BAY BIAS. We all can almost hear, "do whatever you can to keep us away from De La Salle." The NCS administrative team should be embarrassed but they do not care because they are focusing on NFHS and Gate monies for themselves....... UNFORTUNATE

bearphan · Nov 10, 2024

MC may be without starting JR QB Caedon Afsharipour vs Newman which will definitely have a significant impact. They're probably also still missing WR Braiden Bachich-Dixon too.

Rocknrolus 95361 · Nov 10, 2024

larry legend33 said:
CN use to play CC and they were great games. I wish those 2 would square off in a RBG. Last year CC was pretty dang good and gave OR who nearly beat Folsom a good game.

This year I think the winner of Newman vs MC will play SRV very tough and could very well beat them. Won't be easy on the road but My guess is there isn't that big of a gap between those schools from what I've seen. If you get to the champ and lose do you go home?

My nephew played the year Oakdale played CN. Great game
Joe Montana was at the game and actually signed autographs. Game difference was Oakdale had sophomore kicker missed 3 extra points. Max Pond made some great plays. That's the game that got me excited about high school football.

MC415 · Nov 10, 2024

FBAddict said:
So you think Sonora or Escalon is the 8th best in the SJS section? Last I checked they were around #30 or so. Not a good

It’s a great comparison similar sized schools and I guarantee you the games between SM and those 2 would excellent down to the wire games

granite Bay the #8 would handle San Marin no problem……..schools like Granite Bay that are huge with numbers should be in open not schools like San Marin who are competitively the level of a escalón or Sonora

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