ADVERTISEMENT

NCS Open/D1..... the NCS should he ashamed

Since the discussions here have boiled it down to the seedings being based almost solely on MaxPreps rankings, the thing that needs to be examined is MaxPreps.

Especially since results sent to MaxPreps aren't completely reliable. If bogus results are sent to MaxPreps, the rankings end up being bogus.

For example, since I lived in Oregon for 18 years, I do check on scores from up there. Their #1 seed in 6A (top division) is Lake Oswego, 9-0. However, two of their results on MaxPreps were obviously wrong, one being something like 222-10 and the other being 109-4. My guess is some goofball sent the wrong ones in to be "funny"). I found the scores on the official OSAA website and sent corrections in myself. The 222-10 score was quickly changed to the proper score and the 109-4 score correction was NOT changed.

In our system depending almost completely on MaxPreps rankings, the seedings would potentially have been quite bogus, especially if said "joker" sent in other stupidly wrong results elsewhere. Fortunately, Oregon has a different setup altogether, not using any rankings, only league standings.

Example here: Would the rankings and therefore the seedings changed if some idiot had sent in incorrect scores to Maxpreps and it hadn't been caught by the few that actually look at scores? Unless the results might not be right, the rankings might not be, either.

NCP Football Top 20: It's Playoff Time

1. De La Salle (10-0)

With a 49-3 win over Clayton Valley Charter, De La Salle ended the regular season undefeated with an average margin of victory of 28 points. Derrick Blanche had two touchdowns for the Spartans, which saw five different players rush for a score. The Spartans are the No. 1 seed in the Open Division and will host San Marin in the first round.

2. Folsom (9-1)

Coming off a first round bye in the SJS Division I playoffs, Folsom will host Downey in a matchup of two of the most productive quarterbacks in the section with Folsom’s Ryder Lyons and Downey’s Carson Lamb.

3. Pittsburg (9-1)

11 different players got a carry and seven different players had a catch in Pittsburg’s 57-16 win over Antioch. Jamar Searcy had more than 100 yards and a touchdown on six catches and Jadyn Hudson had an interception on defense. The Pirates are the No. 2 seed in the NCS Open Division and will take on Clayton Valley Charter this week.

4. San Ramon Valley (9-1)

Rhett Thompson threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-7 win over Monte Vista. Marco Jones put together a big game with 14 tackles and 3.5 sacks. The Wolves are the No. 3 seed and will host California, which they beat 38-26 on October 11.

5. St. Mary’s-Stockton (8-2)

The Rams are moving into the Top 20 following last week’s loss by St. Francis to Riordan and the fact St. Mary’s has a win over Marin Catholic and played De La Salle tougher than anyone else thus far. This week, they start the SJS Division II playoffs against Vacaville.

6. St. Francis-Mountain View (8-2)

Despite the 34-24 loss to Riordan, St. Francis enters the CCS playoffs as our top rated team in the section with a share of the WCAL title and the only WCAL program to beat a fellow WCAL ranked program on the road. In last week’s loss to the Crusaders, Kingston Keanaaina returned a kickoff for a score and quarterback Aaron Knapp threw for a touchdown and ran for another. The Lancers are the No. 2 seed in the CCS Open Division playoffs and host Valley Christian this week.

7. St. Ignatius (8-2)

St. Ignatius will take a three game winning streak into the CCS Open Division playoffs after beating Mitty 24-19. The Wildcats, who are the No. 1 seed, will host Salinas. In the regular season, St. Ignatius was 5-0 in one possession games.

8. Grant (7-3)

As the No. 3 seed in the SJS Division II playoffs, Grant will take on Jesuit in the quarterfinals in a matchup of two of the most storied programs in the Sac-Joaquin Section.

9. Oak Ridge (6-4)

The Trojans had an off week after their win over Rocklin to end the regular season. They return to the field on Friday when they host Monterey Trail in the SJS Division I quarterfinals.

10. Rocklin (8-2)

Rocklin is the top seed in the SJS Division II playoffs and will host Elk Grove on Friday. The Thunder have only allowed more than 21 points twice this year (Turlock and Folsom).

11. Riordan (6-4)

Mike Mitchell Jr. threw for 178 yards and three touchdowns and added a go ahead rushing score in the fourth quarter en route to a 34-24 win over St. Francis. Chris Lawson added a touchdown catch and an interception. Riordan is the No. 3 seed in the CCS Division I playoffs and will take on Soquel this week.

12. Los Gatos (8-2)

Grayson Doslak rushed for 137 yards and three touchdowns and Scotty Brennan found Owen Patu for a touchdown as Los Gatos beat Palo Alto 44-6. The win was spurred by a 30 point second quarter. Los Gatos will travel to Serra this week in a 4-5 matchup in the CCS Division I playoffs.

13. Soquel (8-2)

Soquel has won eight in a row after shutting out Aptos 45-0. Tyreis Lundy and Keyandre Bailey each rushed for more than 100 yards and Sam Whelan tossed three touchdowns. The Knights are giving up less than 10 points per game this season heading into the CCS Division I opener against Riordan.

14. Marin Catholic (8-2)

Jarred Geisberger scored the game winning touchdown in the fourth quarter as the Wildcats beat Windsor 24-21 to secure an outright league title. Marin Catholic, which went 6-0 on the road in the regular season, will be at home to start the NCS Division I playoffs on Saturday against Cardinal Newman.

15. Manteca (9-1)

Manteca, which only has a one point loss to Marin Catholic on its loss ledger, will host undefeated Rodriguez in the SJS Division II playoffs.

16. Serra (5-5)

Nano Latu had a touchdown run and a touchdown catch and the Padres’ defense held Valley Christian in check throughout the night with a 29-3 win. Serra gets a home game to start the CCS Division I playoffs against Los Gatos on Saturday.

17. Cardinal Newman (9-1)

Cardinal Newman held Vintage to 154 yards in a 33-0 shutout win. It is the third time this year that the Cardinals have held an opponent to three points or less. They will get a rematch against the only team to beat them, Marin Catholic, in the NCS Division I playoffs.

18. Salinas (8-2)

Bouncing back from its loss to Soquel, Salinas ended the regular season with a 31-14 win over Hollister. Rico Maturino threw for 286 yards and three touchdowns as head coach Steve Zenk earned career win No. 100. Next up is the CCS Open Division opener against top seed St. Ignatius.

19. Valley Christian (5-5)

Dealing with injuries to its running backs, Valley Christian’s failed to score an offensive touchdown in a 29-3 loss at Serra. The Warriors have lost three straight heading into the postseason, where they will face St. Francis-Mountain View.

20. Wilcox (8-2)

Wilcox got 105 yards and four touchdowns in a 30-21 win over Menlo-Atherton to get the outright league title. The game was tied at 21 entering the fourth quarter. Wilcox is the top seed in the CCS Division II playoffs and will face Santa Teresa.

NCS Open/D1..... the NCS should he ashamed

What makes the most sense in the NCS is the BEST play Open(that does not have to be 8 teams).
The section tried 4 teams years ago. The persistent complaint that it wasn't fair because no one could get past DLS. As a concession, the section came up with the current D-1/Open format, which would only work with 8 teams.

But all those teams have a chance to move on even after a loss within their respected division.
This is entirely untrue. In order for a team to advance after a loss, they would have to make it to the Open championship game.

Diaz-Infante (Bellarmine)

Admission standards appear a bit draconian and elitist. There's so many boys coming out of grammar school that had Bs and Cs and actually performed very well academically as they matured in high school. Riordan's program has 80% of its players on the honor roll - many for the first time. John Tofi is a Cal commit with a 4.0 gpa. And jr Mike Mitchell carries a 4.0 gpa and recently committed to Vanderbilt.
To be fair.. 4.0 really depends on the academic rigor of the school itself. a 4.0 at DeAnza community college is not the same as a 4.0 at Stanford. So the real test will be how he fairs at the collegiate level academically with the Riordan education system. I dont know enough about either school but just basing it on GPA is ludicrous..

NCS Open/D1..... the NCS should he ashamed

The problem is not with the seedings, it's with the NCS in general. There is a clear disparity up and down the section(as it runs from East Bay through North Bay up to Del Norte). The ability to categorize a true strength of schedule with the current number system is off. The farther Northern schools, somehow, are credited with higher schedule strength AND only play each other.
I don't disagree that the more closed a system is, the more difficult it is for the Calpreps system to accurately gauge the strength of the teams. I believe there is an adjustment for the Northern Section, but I don't think there would be one for the northern portion of the North Coast Section. That said...

Cardinal Newman played:
- Vacaville, #2 team from the Monticello Empire, winner in the first round of the SJS D-II playoffs... beat them by 18.
- Bishop O'Dowd, champs of the West Alameda County-Foothill division, #4 seed in the NCS D-2 playoffs... beat them by 56.
- Pleasant Valley, champs of the Easter League, #1 seed of the NS D-II (top division) playoffs... beat them by 27.

Marin Catholic played:
- Inderkum, co-champ of the Capital Valley league, #4 seed of the SJS D-I playoffs... lost by 26.
- St. Mary's, champs of the Tri-City league, #2 seed of the SJS D-II playoffs... lost by 13.
- Manteca, champs of the Valley Oak league, #4 seed of the SJS D-II playoffs... beat them by 1 (gave them their only loss).
- Edison (Stockton), #2 team from the Tri-City league, #9 seed of the SJS D-I playoffs... beat them by 10.

San Marin played:
- Foothill (Palo Cedro), tied for 2nd in the Eastern League, #2 seed of the NS D-II playoffs... beat them by 20.

Windsor played:
- Campolindo, tied for 3rd in the Diablo-Foothill division, #3 seed of the NCS D-3 playoffs... beat them by 19.

I think we can both agree that the RE-A top teams went out of the area and demonstrated that their ratings were not due to a closed system.

In reality, the new adopted system does not nor will it be the same as it is with the CCS. Competitive Equity with a D2 size school playing down to a D4 enrollment base makes no sense. We will start seeing more transfers.
Alisal is the #2 seed of the CCS D-V playoffs. The school's enrollment is 2900. I can assure you that no one is transferring to Alisal for some sort of athletic competitive edge over small schools. Even if athletes started doing so, the team would start to do better and they'd no longer be in D-V. They were in D-III last year.

The largest school in the Pacific Coast-Gabilan division is Hollister at 3450 students. The Haybalers tied for 6th place (out of 7 teams... tied for last).

The real problem with this is the continued reliance on enrollment equating to team strength.

Outside of Marin Catholic, Cardinal Newman and San Marin, I think St. Vincent de Paul was the only other school to get BUMPED UP divisions. All others went down divisions.
Not true. Bishop O'Dowd is a base D-4 team who is competing in the D-2 playoffs.

Of course, you do understand that if Cardinal Newman and Marin Catholic move to the Open division, other teams will naturally have to drop as a result, right?

WCAL: A Final Glance

Thanks for the info... Although not the end-all indicator of future years' success, historically these type of stats are important factors for future success.

This data suggests we will continue to see SF and JS dominance, VC and SI filling the upper middle level, AR in flux, with AM, BCP and SHC toward the bottom. There will be plenty of variables to consider before next season, such as percentage of returning varsity players, transfers in & out, existing players quitting and existing students playing next year that didn't play this year. And there is a step up in physical maturity changes being drastic for some players and only some for other players between 16 years old and 18 years old.

Here is my far too early WCAL rankings for next year:
#1 JS (or SF)
#2 SF (or JS)
#3 VC (or SI/AR)
#4 SI (or VC/AR)
#5 AR (or VC/SI)
#6 AM
#7 SHC (or BCP)
#8 BCP (or SHC) We should see a definite up tick for BCP but maybe not enough to push out of the bottom three.

NCS Open/D1..... the NCS should he ashamed

I’m all for using rankings as a guide, but there needs to be some common sense applied. Amador Valley is a way better fit in the top bracket than San Marin. Nobody would have batted an eye if they were reversed.
As with the same argument I've used elsewhere: everyone knew the rules before the season started. It was literally written into the NCS bylaws what the application of the Calpreps ratings was going to be.


After Brexit passed in the UK, do you know what the #1 Google search in that country reportedly was the day after the election?

"What is Brexit?"

It's up to the member of the organization to stay informed. They don't get to complain about it after the fact.
  • Haha
Reactions: aztecpadre

SJS Playoff Brackets

One tweak to your idea could be to maybe create "enrollment" categories then create the division within those. Lump D1-D3 schools in a larger schools category and smaller schools in another.

There still has to be some weight given to school size. At the end of the regular season, Monterey Trail was ranked outside the top 16. In the 17-32 spots are teams that are down in D6. They certainly are very good teams, but it just seems inherently unfair to force them to play so far above their classification when they haven't gotten there through the continued success rule.

However, I don't think the Section wants to do any of this. I have long held the belief that they want the top 8-10 schools spread out through the divisions so that the SJS fairs better in the regional games. I also think the other sections see this as well, which is why the decision was made to pair Grant and Rocklin last year. There is no way Grant should have been in D3 and everyone knew it. The results of the game proved it.
agree...
1. i think enrollment is still a philosophical playoff principle the sjs will hold onto
2. since only section winners are eligible for state, it makes sense to not cannabalize their talent

even an open division that allows the finalists to advance would make for 1 or 2 more smaller school teams that would've won a lower division section to not qualify.

however, with grant last year, I don't think that was intentional, unless they tweaked the seeding process knowing grant would be D3 and that being the sole purpose. I do think they knew the new (old) seeding process increased the chances of a good team not facing folsom, though. I think they got lucky with grant in d3, cuz enrollments worked out.
  • Like
Reactions: MTsince2004

97th Little Big Game

It should be noted that San Mateo's powerhouse senior RB Emmanuel Fitzgerald, a 6-2, 225-pound man-child in pads, rumbled for 247 rushing yards and three touchdowns vs. the Panthers. He ran through, over and around the Burlingame defenders much of the day. There was no answer for him. Up next for SM and Fitzgerald: Carmel in CCS playoffs.

NCS Open/D1..... the NCS should he ashamed

... which was mostly what was in the NCS bylaws.

The only people who cry more about the seedings than NCS people are SS people.
The problem is not with the seedings, it's with the NCS in general. There is a clear disparity up and down the section(as it runs from East Bay through North Bay up to Del Norte). The ability to categorize a true strength of schedule with the current number system is off. The farther Northern schools, somehow, are credited with higher schedule strength AND only play each other. In this system smaller schools in D7 are going to get the short end of the stick. It is easy to say, just play them, beat them and then problem solved. However, schools are working with budgets and many do not see the cost benefit in sending their teams(ANY SPORTS) on 3 to 4 hour trips. In reality, the new adopted system does not nor will it be the same as it is with the CCS. Competitive Equity with a D2 size school playing down to a D4 enrollment base makes no sense. We will start seeing more transfers. The kids that will get hurt will be truly the small school kids. Outside of Marin Catholic, Cardinal Newman and San Marin, I think St. Vincent de Paul was the only other school to get BUMPED UP divisions. All others went down divisions. What makes the most sense in the NCS is the BEST play Open(that does not have to be 8 teams). But all those teams have a chance to move on even after a loss within their respected division. Then all other schools are placed in their appropriate enrollment division. At some point common sense should be taken into consideration.

WCAL: A Final Glance

Here are the final 2024 composite totals (league only) for the eight WCAL teams' programs (varsity, JV and frosh):

St. Francis, 15-4
Serra, 15-4
Valley Christian, 12-7
St. Ignatius, 10-9
Riordan (no frosh), 6-8
Mitty, 6-13
Bellarmine, 4-15
Sacred Heart Cathedral (no frosh), 3-11

SF and SI tied for the varsity championship.
Serra won the JV crown undefeated.
SF won the frosh title undefeated.

NCS Open/D1..... the NCS should he ashamed

... which was mostly what was in the NCS bylaws.

The only people who cry more about the seedings than NCS people are SS people.
I’m all for using rankings as a guide, but there needs to be some common sense applied. Amador Valley is a way better fit in the top bracket than San Marin. Nobody would have batted an eye if they were reversed.

SJS Playoff Brackets

Looking at the match up with Folson would look close. Almost same total yards and points. And Lamb is throwing for more yards. Plaa has his passing game down. If you had a defense! Got to score 44 because you gave up 41. Fun to watch too!
No one in the section is going to come close to beating Folsom. Turlock shut down Downey 33-14, their only loss. Turlock lost to Folsom 56-14.

NCS Open/D1..... the NCS should he ashamed

Edit - Looking at MaxPreps rankings, it appears the NCS committee took the lazy way out, and seeded the Open/D1 bracket exactly according to MP rankings, with the exception of El Cerrito who was excluded from the playoffs.
... which was mostly what was in the NCS bylaws.

The only people who cry more about the seedings than NCS people are SS people.
  • Haha
Reactions: aztecpadre

NCS Open/D1..... the NCS should he ashamed

Terrible. Absolute Joke. Should have been 4 teams.

The unfortunate reality is there is not a perfect system. I, personally, think the NCS has been screwing up EVERY sport for years. They have never put thought into their selection committees and it is, unfortunately, a "good ol boy" organization. They pretend to hide behind what they say is black and white but ultimately it has been a narcissistically run organization for decades. Three North Bay schools being in the Open is comical, especially if you are going to position Vintage High School as the #8 seed in Division 2. Vintage handily beat San Marin 1 week ago. Vintage lost to a Las Lomas team this year who was beaten by Northgate, Clayton Valley Charter and Campolindo. How in the WORLD is San Marin #8. This is what most people in our area call EAST BAY BIAS. We all can almost hear, "do whatever you can to keep us away from De La Salle." The NCS administrative team should be embarrassed but they do not care because they are focusing on NFHS and Gate monies for themselves....... UNFORTUNATE
Adds to the argument to get rid of the sections.

SJS Playoff Brackets

It’s probably a crazy idea, but what if the SJS only used CalPreps ratings for their playoff structure? It would look something like this:
D1: Top 16 teams. No bye weeks. Week one of Playoffs: #16 at #1, #15 at #2, etc

D2: Next best 16 teams: #17 through #33.

D3: Next best 16 teams: #34 through #50.

D4: Next best 16 teams: #51 through #67.

D5: Next best 16 teams: #68 through #84.

D6: Next best 16 teams: #85 through 101.

Or: Same as above, except add an Open Division with Cal Prep's teams #1 through #4, and move Division 1 to teams #4 through #20, Division 2 to teams #21 through #37, and so on…

If two teams have the same CalPreps ratings, a coin flip would determine the higher seed, with the coin flip winner deciding if they prefer the higher seed or lower seed. If the same rating occured between #16 and #17, the coin flip winner would have the option of being the lowest seed in D1 or highest seed in D2. This would be a playoff system based only on competitive equity as determined by Cal Preps.
The other thing that would be interesting would be to put all 10 weeks’ scores for every high school in California or the USA for that matter that plays 11-man football and ask an AI engine like Chat GPT-4 to determine a ranking system. I’m sure it could be designed to even include player stats and if certain players were injured, etc.
Looking at the match up with Folson would look close. Almost same total yards and points. And Lamb is throwing for more yards. Plaa has his passing game down. If you had a defense! Got to score 44 because you gave up 41. Fun to watch too!
  • Like
Reactions: carlmerritt

NCS Open/D1..... the NCS should he ashamed

Looking at the bracket, there is no reason at all for San Marin to be in the Open/D1 bracket, much less facing DLS! Liberty finished 2nd to Pitt in a D1 league! Amador Valley would have also been a much better choice, as not only did they just force Cal into OT Friday, but they were the only EBAL Mountain team not to face DLS this year. This would/should have been their chance. Instead they get rewarded for losing, and placed down into the D2 bracket.

As far as 3-4-5-6 go, I’d much rather see CN play SRV & Cal play MC than have 2 rematches of league games that were just played a couple of weeks ago. Cal’s only 2 losses this year were to DLS & SRV. CN’s only loss was to MC. Sure it’s great they get another shot for revenge, but there’s only so many games in a season, why not allow them to play some other teams?

Edit - Looking at MaxPreps rankings, it appears the NCS committee took the lazy way out, and seeded the Open/D1 bracket exactly according to MP rankings, with the exception of El Cerrito who was excluded from the playoffs.

NCS Open/D1..... the NCS should he ashamed

While I am surprised the NCS kept San Marin in D-1/Open, I think there is one thing on which most people would/should agree... the top division should be for the top teams from the top leagues. Am I right?

Am I right?

Yes?

Ok, but here's the problem with that... Redwood Empire-Adobe was the 2nd best league in the section this year. San Marin vs Liberty... are the Lions better? Liberty is certainly a bigger school, but I don't know that we can say they're better. Will the Lions rip through D-2? I don't think so. Would San Marin? Well, it might depend on what you think about that result against Vintage. Even if the NCS adopted a similar A-, B-, C-, and D-league scheme like in the CCS rather than using enrollment, you'd still probably end up with the same result. I mean, the RE-A is certainly better than the MHAL!

My own alma mater took 2nd in a CCS A-league, but was placed as the #8 seed in D-I/Open while a higher ranked/rated (Cal-Hi/Calpreps), A-league champion gets to be the #1 seed in D-II. It does suck, but in any of these competitive equity divisions, the cutoff has to be somewhere.

In my opinion, the issue is not that the NCS has a large number of small schools, but rather that it doesn't have a large number of good teams coming out of the big schools. The section was really top-heavy with more than solid De La Salle/Pittsburg, and a few really good teams in San Ramon Valley, Marin Catholic, and Cardinal Newman. Then the next several that could be largely interchangeable. In both the CCS and NCS, there is a strong argument that the top 8 teams in the respective sections really are in those top divisions.

NCS people have been spoiled far too long with having enrollment-based divisions where the same teams got to pound the same teams for section titles. Say what you will about San Marin being a small school with 1200 students, but CCS #6 in D-I (Soquel) is even smaller at 1096. Yet, no one is really complaining about that.

I don't really know that I have a lot of pity for the section, though. Yes, DLS remains the giant elephant in the room, but in the last few years, two teams from the CCS and SJS each have been able to beat them. But no one from the NCS? Hey, maybe this will finally be the year!

NCS Open/D1..... the NCS should he ashamed

The unfortunate reality is there is not a perfect system. I, personally, think the NCS has been screwing up EVERY sport for years. They have never put thought into their selection committees and it is, unfortunately, a "good ol boy" organization. They pretend to hide behind what they say is black and white but ultimately it has been a narcissistically run organization for decades. Three North Bay schools being in the Open is comical, especially if you are going to position Vintage High School as the #8 seed in Division 2. Vintage handily beat San Marin 1 week ago. Vintage lost to a Las Lomas team this year who was beaten by Northgate, Clayton Valley Charter and Campolindo. How in the WORLD is San Marin #8. This is what most people in our area call EAST BAY BIAS. We all can almost hear, "do whatever you can to keep us away from De La Salle." The NCS administrative team should be embarrassed but they do not care because they are focusing on NFHS and Gate monies for themselves....... UNFORTUNATE
ADVERTISEMENT

Filter

ADVERTISEMENT