Carmel doesn’t opt up

[FormerD1Backer]

Watching both teams play I honestly think that Gonzales will win. They will win the turn over battle and will be able to run the ball and keep Carmel’s explosive offense off the field. I also think that TKA wins DV. Lavorato is a hell of a coach and he will exploit the defensive alignment of Carmel vs. a 22 personnel offense if they should face each other in the championship.

Sorry, but I'm just not convinced. Not to take anything away from Gonzales and their incredible season, but the two toughest games for them prior to Saratoga (who had no common opponents with Gonzo or Carmel) were King City and PG. When Carmel played them, both those games were long over by half time. Carmel has a better Defense by far than Gonzales has faced this year, and they also have 3 guys on offense and special teams who literally are a threat to score each time the ball is in their hands.

As for TKA, all of the sudden they are being spoken of like they've been a powerhouse all year. I know they are good, but until somebody is still giving Carmel a game headed into the 4th quarter this season, I'm not sweating anybody exploiting anything about their game. And I know you are biased being a PG guy. Don't blame you ; )

 

[831ccschamp]

Sorry, but I'm just not convinced. Not to take anything away from Gonzales and their incredible season, but the two toughest games for them prior to Saratoga (who had no common opponents with Gonzo or Carmel) were King City and PG. When Carmel played them, both those games were long over by half time. Carmel has a better Defense by far than Gonzales has faced this year, and they also have 3 guys on offense and special teams who literally are a threat to score each time the ball is in their hands.

As for TKA, all of the sudden they are being spoken of like they've been a powerhouse all year. I know they are good, but until somebody is still giving Carmel a game headed into the 4th quarter this season, I'm not sweating anybody exploiting anything about their game. And I know you are biased being a PG guy. Don't blame you ; )

The PG game the starting QB from Gonzales got injured early in the first quarter. Also PG lost a decent amount of its roster since that game. In all honesty besides Salinas and Monte Vista Carmel has a soft schedule too. Every one knows teams like Salinas and Palma it’s best to play them early in the season. All I know is it’s going to be a great game either way. If this was Vegas what do you think the spread will be for this game? I don’t think they will make the projected spread that’s for sure.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

The PG game the starting QB from Gonzales got injured early in the first quarter. Also PG lost a decent amount of its roster since that game. In all honesty besides Salinas and Monte Vista Carmel has a soft schedule too. Every one knows teams like Salinas and Palma it’s best to play them early in the season. All I know is it’s going to be a great game either way. If this was Vegas what do you think the spread will be for this game? I don’t think they will make the projected spread that’s for sure.

I think the spread would be +10 Carmel. And yes, they will cover.

 

[thehookup55]

I think the spread would be +10 Carmel. And yes, they will cover.

Lol Carmel in a route but you have them as 10 point dogs?

 

[831ccschamp]

I think the spread would be +10 Carmel. And yes, they will cover.

A two possession game that’s fair I would think more around 13.5 based upon their rankings. Calpreps projection is 44-21 Carmel.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

Lol Carmel in a route but you have them as 10 point dogs?

I don't bet in Vegas, so sorry if I got that wrong. I'm picking Carmel by more than 10.

 

[831ccschamp]

I don't bet in Vegas, so sorry if I got that wrong. I'm picking Carmel by more than 10.

I think you were supposed to put -10. I knew what you meant though.

 

[thehookup55]

I don't bet in Vegas, so sorry if I got that wrong. I'm picking Carmel by more than 10.

I was just busting your balls.

I think Carmel wins pretty easily. Gonzales had a great year and is an improving program but they aren’t there yet. I’ll go Carmel 42-Gonzales 24

 

[SPortela24]

Sorry, but I'm just not convinced. Not to take anything away from Gonzales and their incredible season, but the two toughest games for them prior to Saratoga (who had no common opponents with Gonzo or Carmel) were King City and PG. When Carmel played them, both those games were long over by half time. Carmel has a better Defense by far than Gonzales has faced this year, and they also have 3 guys on offense and special teams who literally are a threat to score each time the ball is in their hands.

As for TKA, all of the sudden they are being spoken of like they've been a powerhouse all year. I know they are good, but until somebody is still giving Carmel a game headed into the 4th quarter this season, I'm not sweating anybody exploiting anything about their game. And I know you are biased being a PG guy. Don't blame you ; )

Uh, no. Sorry.

I asked about Gonzales. Don't know much about them other than the fact that they're in year 2 of a new coaching staff. I was simply asking for opinions.

But I know TKA and Lavorato very well. I said last season that they were on the footsteps of being a Bay Division program. I was right. To say Pete is a good coach is one thing but when you give Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw a clinic on your offensive scheme you don't need much more of an endorsement.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

Uh, no. Sorry.

I asked about Gonzales. Don't know much about them other than the fact that they're in year 2 of a new coaching staff. I was simply asking for opinions.

But I know TKA and Lavorato very well. I said last season that they were on the footsteps of being a Bay Division program. I was right. To say Pete is a good coach is one thing but when you give Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw a clinic on your offensive scheme you don't need much more of an endorsement.

I have lots of respect for Coach Lavorato having seen SHP play many times under his tenure. He's as good as they come. I don't think TKA will be a cakewalk, but I do think Carmel is going to win.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

Uh, no. Sorry.

I asked about Gonzales. Don't know much about them other than the fact that they're in year 2 of a new coaching staff. I was simply asking for opinions.

But I know TKA and Lavorato very well. I said last season that they were on the footsteps of being a Bay Division program. I was right. To say Pete is a good coach is one thing but when you give Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw a clinic on your offensive scheme you don't need much more of an endorsement.

My reference to "PG guy" was pointed at 831ccsChamps, not you... sorry for the misfire!

 

[SPortela24]

I have lots of respect for Coach Lavorato having seen SHP play many times under his tenure. He's as good as they come. I don't think TKA will be a cakewalk, but I do think Carmel is going to win.

Here is my reasoning for believing TKA will beat Carmel.

1/ Common opponent. This is the worst possible barometer by which to put together a prediction specially when that team is a league opponent for one team but not the other. But, it is one you need to take into consideration. Carmel beat MVC 14-0. TKA got up 20-0 on MVC before half time and the game was never closer than a 2 possession game from that point forward. TKA took that one 34-14.

2/ Style. I love the spread offense. I love power football. But there is a theory a friend of mines once told me in which that spread offenses make teams soft and that is true. Here and there you will see a spread team take it to a power football team but usually it is the other way around. The spread offense is about utilizing space. Power teams are forced to create space. What was all the buzz about when SHP dismantled El Cerrito in regionals a few years back? El Cerrito had all the athletes one could ever want. DJ Calhoun was about the hardest hitting LB I had ever seen at the HS Level. They were averaging 53 points per game. When all was said and done all people could talk about was just how physical Prep was as a team. You go in the news paper and you realize that Lavorato still takes tons of pride in hitting. His teams still take pride in hitting. Sure, what team doesn't? But power football teams are forced to hit far more than spread teams.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2013/12/14/norcal-football-sacred-heart-prep-stuns-el-cerrito/

3/ Pete Lavorato. He's been here before. Not only is he undefeated against Carmel, he is 2-0 against Coach Anderson including one other time that Carmel was undefeated. The other time was a sectional championship game in which Carmel lead Sacred Heart Prep by 3 possesions. Not many PCAL teams have been able to beat him. In fact, I remember one season that Palma beat SHP but other than that I can't think of another team who was able to win against one of his teams.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

Here is my reasoning for believing TKA will beat Carmel.

1/ Common opponent. This is the worst possible barometer by which to put together a prediction specially when that team is a league opponent for one team but not the other. But, it is one you need to take into consideration. Carmel beat MVC 14-0. TKA got up 20-0 on MVC before half time and the game was never closer than a 2 possession game from that point forward. TKA took that one 34-14.

2/ Style. I love the spread offense. I love power football. But there is a theory a friend of mines once told me in which that spread offenses make teams soft and that is true. Here and there you will see a spread team take it to a power football team but usually it is the other way around. The spread offense is about utilizing space. Power teams are forced to create space. What was all the buzz about when SHP dismantled El Cerrito in regionals a few years back? El Cerrito had all the athletes one could ever want. DJ Calhoun was about the hardest hitting LB I had ever seen at the HS Level. They were averaging 53 points per game. When all was said and done all people could talk about was just how physical Prep was as a team. You go in the news paper and you realize that Lavorato still takes tons of pride in hitting. His teams still take pride in hitting. Sure, what team doesn't? But power football teams are forced to hit far more than spread teams.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2013/12/14/norcal-football-sacred-heart-prep-stuns-el-cerrito/

3/ Pete Lavorato. He's been here before. Not only is he undefeated against Carmel, he is 2-0 against Coach Anderson including one other time that Carmel was undefeated. The other time was a sectional championship game in which Carmel lead Sacred Heart Prep by 3 possesions. Not many PCAL teams have been able to beat him. In fact, I remember one season that Palma beat SHP but other than that I can't think of another team who was able to win against one of his teams.

You might be right. But this isn't an SHP Team, it's TKA, and this isn't the undefeated Carmel Team that SHP faced in the finals that season (Devin Pearson's Jr. Year at Carmel.) That team barely got by HMB in the semi-finals with a last second TD drive that put them in the finals. They were a solid squad, but nowhere near as talented as this year's Carmel Team on both sides of the ball and on special teams. And I think Anderson is a better coach now than he was the last time Pete Lavorato faced him. I'm not sure that all adds up to a Carmel win, but I think it will. Appreciate your insight though, and I haven't seen TKA play this season, so you have a leg up on me there. Have you seen Carmel play? Just curious.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

Here is my reasoning for believing TKA will beat Carmel.

1/ Common opponent. This is the worst possible barometer by which to put together a prediction specially when that team is a league opponent for one team but not the other. But, it is one you need to take into consideration. Carmel beat MVC 14-0. TKA got up 20-0 on MVC before half time and the game was never closer than a 2 possession game from that point forward. TKA took that one 34-14.

2/ Style. I love the spread offense. I love power football. But there is a theory a friend of mines once told me in which that spread offenses make teams soft and that is true. Here and there you will see a spread team take it to a power football team but usually it is the other way around. The spread offense is about utilizing space. Power teams are forced to create space. What was all the buzz about when SHP dismantled El Cerrito in regionals a few years back? El Cerrito had all the athletes one could ever want. DJ Calhoun was about the hardest hitting LB I had ever seen at the HS Level. They were averaging 53 points per game. When all was said and done all people could talk about was just how physical Prep was as a team. You go in the news paper and you realize that Lavorato still takes tons of pride in hitting. His teams still take pride in hitting. Sure, what team doesn't? But power football teams are forced to hit far more than spread teams.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2013/12/14/norcal-football-sacred-heart-prep-stuns-el-cerrito/

3/ Pete Lavorato. He's been here before. Not only is he undefeated against Carmel, he is 2-0 against Coach Anderson including one other time that Carmel was undefeated. The other time was a sectional championship game in which Carmel lead Sacred Heart Prep by 3 possesions. Not many PCAL teams have been able to beat him. In fact, I remember one season that Palma beat SHP but other than that I can't think of another team who was able to win against one of his teams.

And let's not fail to mention, the SHP Team that beat El Cerrito that year had Ben Burr-Kirven flying all over on both sides of the ball, as he still does at UW. That kid was a 14-21 point differential all by his lonesome, and I think Pete would agree!

 

[SPortela24]

And let's not fail to mention, the SHP Team that beat El Cerrito that year had Ben Burr-Kirven flying all over on both sides of the ball, as he still does at UW. That kid was a 14-21 point differential all by his lonesome, and I think Pete would agree!

Of course but in retrospect the El Cerrito game was "Sunshine's coming out game." Everyone in the Bay Division knew about him but he was relatively unknown in the Bay Area up to that point. Remember, he was only a junior LB who was barely used on Offense.

Before that game it was all about Adarius Pickett, Jalen Harvey and the Benjamin Twins, Keilan and Keith. DJ Calhoun was the best defensive player in the Bay Area according to many. Yes, Prep had Ben Burr-Kirven who was as good as anyone I ever saw but Calhoun was equally as good. If you dont believe me look up their college careers and you'll see that DJ and Sunshine stack up nicely.

 

[NorCalSportsFan]

If Gonzales defeats Carmel, they just might get the #1 ranking in John Devine's Monterey Herald Football ranking.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

As of yesterday Devine had Palma at #1. Thinking Gonzo should have opted up!

 

[831ccschamp]

If Gonzales defeats Carmel, they just might get the #1 ranking in John Devine's Monterey Herald Football ranking.

I’m not sure if this is sarcasm or not but if Gonzales beats Carmel I think they should be a 4 spot behind Aptos Palma and Salinas. I think that’s where Carmel should be right now.

 

[NorCalSportsFan]

As of yesterday Devine had Palma at #1. Thinking Gonzo should have opted up!

Saw that. I gave him the case that teams improve over seasons and early loss by Salinas was probably due to early season. Then Salinas lost to San Benito (which hurt them in ranking) ... and then later defeated them. Kind of makes the case teams do have bad games. I imagine Aptos would have been higher if they defeated Salinas but didn't. Will be interesting how that goes. If Carmel wins playoff and Salinas goes far....who would be ranked higher as well is Palma loses to Aptos (if Aptos defeats Terra Nova). Palma, Salinas and Aptos are all pretty close. Carmel probably is, but seems they also have off games. They should have destroyed Alisal but didn't. I am leery of an Aptos and Palma rematch. If they do, I hope Carnzo changes his game plan some and figures out how to stop the run (Salinas had pretty good success). Aptos will bneed to figure out pass defense and that is something they will need to figure out against Terra Nova. I think the lag in the next round may hurt the teams that have the time off. They would have had an advantage if the other team only had 5 days. Now I think it shifts to the other side. Palma has been playing really well on offense but then again they could have defeated Pioneer 100-0 if they tried. That was a complete mismatch and now the games will be very competitive. I think there is still wiggle room for change and then if Gonzales defeats Carmel.....that would make things interesting. LOL

 

[FormerD1Backer]

I’m not sure if this is sarcasm or not but if Gonzales beats Carmel I think they should be a 4 spot behind Aptos Palma and Salinas. I think that’s where Carmel should be right now.

Despite winning the head to head with Salinas, and their undefeated record, without having a close game all season? Do you think Folsom should be ranked #1 in Norcal too over DLS? Pretty much the same argument.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

Despite winning the head to head with Salinas, and their undefeated record, without having a close game all season? Do you think Folsom should be ranked #1 in Norcal too over DLS? Pretty much the same argument.

I don't mean if Gonzales beats Carmel- if that happens Carmel deserves to drop below Gonzales. My question above is why Carmel should be ranked below several teams they haven't played and one they beat earlier this season as you infer 831?

 

[NorCalSportsFan]

Despite winning the head to head with Salinas, and their undefeated record, without having a close game all season? Do you think Folsom should be ranked #1 in Norcal too over DLS? Pretty much the same argument.

There is argument for ranking Gonzales over Carmel if there is an upset. I agree with you on the others due to strength of schedule.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

There is argument for ranking Gonzales over Carmel if there is an upset. I agree with you on the others due to strength of schedule.

If Gonzo beats Carmel there is no argument in my mind. They won the head to head and remain undefeated, they deserve the ranking. Since Gonzales hasn't played any other the other 3 mentioned I think SOS rules in terms of how they line up then, and logically I think they end up #4 behind Palma, Salinas & Aptos, Carmel #5 and Hollister #6.

 

[NorCalSportsFan]

Despite winning the head to head with Salinas, and their undefeated record, without having a close game all season? Do you think Folsom should be ranked #1 in Norcal too over DLS? Pretty much the same argument.

No. DLS should be ranked higher because of head to head win and strength of schedule and being undefeated. Little different than Carmel's case. Carmel disn't have strength of schedule as the others. Palma or Aptos or Salinas for that matter could win by at least 60 point margins in that league if they wanted to. Even San Benito would be dominant. Top 4 teams in Gab would have had similar results in Carmel's league. We'll find out next season how competitive Carmel will be. They just might be, but don't see them winning it next season.

 

[831ccschamp]

I don't mean if Gonzales beats Carmel- if that happens Carmel deserves to drop below Gonzales. My question above is why Carmel should be ranked below several teams they haven't played and one they beat earlier this season as you infer 831?

Because if Carmel is better than Aptos or Palma they should have decided to play in the bracket that has those teams. Salinas beat both Palma and Aptos so while yes Carmel beat Salinas they choose to dodge the two teams that Salinas beat.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

No. DLS should be ranked higher because of head to head win and strength of schedule and being undefeated. Little different than Carmel's case. Carmel disn't have strength of schedule as the others. Palma or Aptos or Salinas for that matter could win by at least 60 point margins in that league if they wanted to. Even San Benito would be dominant. Top 4 teams in Gab would have had similar results in Carmel's league. We'll find out next season how competitive Carmel will be. They just might be, but don't see them winning it next season.

So by virtue of your assumption about how badly the rest of the Mission was this year, you think Aptos (who hasn't shown much pass defense lately) Salinas (who Carmel beat by 2 scores on their home turf) or Palma (who got beat by Salinas) are all better than Carmel? Next season will be a different team by the way.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

Because if Carmel is better than Aptos or Palma they should have decided to play in the bracket that has those teams. Salinas beat both Palma and Aptos so while yes Carmel beat Salinas they choose to dodge the two teams that Salinas beat.

Several teams Carmel faced in the Mission Div played in the Gabilan prior, and nobody was beating them by 60. Sounds like your guys wouldn't even have to get off the bus to beat Carmel.

 

[831ccschamp]

So by virtue of your assumption about how badly the rest of the Mission was this year, you think Aptos (who hasn't shown much pass defense lately) Salinas (who Carmel beat by 2 scores on their home turf) or Palma (who got beat by Salinas) are all better than Carmel? Next season will be a different team by the way.

I assume that the head coach of Carmel believes that they aren’t better than Palma or Aptos or else he would have choose to play them. He knows his team best right? If golden thought his team was better it would make no sense to be in D5.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

Because if Carmel is better than Aptos or Palma they should have decided to play in the bracket that has those teams. Salinas beat both Palma and Aptos so while yes Carmel beat Salinas they choose to dodge the two teams that Salinas beat.

Their coach/AD made that decision, so that means Palma and Aptos are better. Gotcha. The Padres beat the team that beat both Aptos and Palma, so clearly they would beat Aptos and Palma. There... my argument is almost as baseless as yours.

 

[831ccschamp]

Several teams Carmel faced in the Mission Div played in the Gabilan prior, and nobody was beating them by 60. Sounds like your guys wouldn't even have to get off the bus to beat Carmel.

Score differential isn’t a great determining factor to decide what team is better. For example Soledad was missing their QB when they played Carmel but had him when they played Palma. Palma pulled their starters in the third and played conservative on offense because the game was out of reach. Carmel pulled their starters way later and didn’t put on the brakes on their offense at all. They called time out to get the ball back with a running clock. Palma scores 7 points in the second half against Soledad. Carmel scored 28 in the second. Palma could have scored more but they choose not to. That’s the difference and why Carmel’s score differentials don’t carry much weight in what your trying to claim.

 

[831ccschamp]

Their coach/AD made that decision, so that means Palma and Aptos are better. Gotcha. The Padres beat the team that beat both Aptos and Palma, so clearly they would beat Aptos and Palma. There... my argument is almost as baseless as yours.

Tell me why the head coach/ad would choose to play lesser opponents when the team he has is better than the teams in D3 then. I don’t understand why it’s not a fair assumption and point to come to the conclusion that if your better than Aptos and Palma you play them. If your not better you choose not to. That’s what seems like what played out to me.

 

[SpeedCity51]

Ooooo there are going to be some angry people when the new PCAL leagues are announced.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

Score differential isn’t a great determining factor to decide what team is better. For example Soledad was missing their QB when they played Carmel but had him when they played Palma. Palma pulled their starters in the third and played conservative on offense because the game was out of reach. Carmel pulled their starters way later and didn’t put on the brakes on their offense at all. They called time out to get the ball back with a running clock. Palma scores 7 points in the second half against Soledad. Carmel scored 28 in the second. Palma could have scored more but they choose not to. That’s the difference and why Carmel’s score differentials don’t carry much weight in what your trying to claim.

1. My comment about the 60 pt automatic victories was meant for Norcal, not you. Sorry for the confusion- I shouldn't be multi-tasking and arguing with you all at the same time! : P I take issue with Norcal's comment about how easily those top Gabilan teams would roll over just about anyone in the Mission, including Alisal. I think that's pretty arrogant.

2. I think score differential gives some kind of indication of quality of teams, but is a far cry from picking winners and losers in head-to-head match ups. That's why they play the games, and team styles, injuries, emotional let-down's and turnovers can make huge impacts on any given contest.

I'm not arguing score differentials with you, but I was pointing out how ridiculous I find your argument about Carmel's decision of which Division to play in having any bearing on whether they might beat Aptos or Palma if they played them. I think those are 3 very good teams and the games would be a toss-up each contest.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

Tell me why the head coach/ad would choose to play lesser opponents when the team he has is better than the teams in D3 then. I don’t understand why it’s not a fair assumption and point to come to the conclusion that if your better than Aptos and Palma you play them. If your not better you choose not to. That’s what seems like what played out to me.

I'm not his agent or Boss. You should contact Golden Anderson.

 

[SPortela24]

Despite winning the head to head with Salinas, and their undefeated record, without having a close game all season? Do you think Folsom should be ranked #1 in Norcal too over DLS? Pretty much the same argument.

I know I am going to get a world of shit for my opinion but here it is.

I would say "no" based on the fact that De La Salle hasn't lost to a NS, NCS, CCS or SJS team since 1991.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

I know I am going to get a world of shit for my opinion but here it is.

I would say "no" based on the fact that De La Salle hasn't lost to a NS, NCS, CCS or SJS team since 1991.

Seems pretty straightforward to me.

 

[NorCalSportsFan]

So by virtue of your assumption about how badly the rest of the Mission was this year, you think Aptos (who hasn't shown much pass defense lately) Salinas (who Carmel beat by 2 scores on their home turf) or Palma (who got beat by Salinas) are all better than Carmel? Next season will be a different team by the way.

Yes....they would defeat Carmel.Salinas was terrible at start of season. Palma actually has very good pass defense this year and passing with due in Carmel blitz and RB would bet his yards. Salinas QB figured out the blitz which Carmel defense did every play and would be different game. Aptos would have some trouble with pass but Carmel wouldn't stop their offense. They would all go undefeated in Carmel's league (with carmel potentially winning a game), but wouldn't be favorite.

 

[FormerD1Backer]

Yes....they would defeat Carmel.Salinas was terrible at start of season. Palma actually has very good pass defense this year and passing with due in Carmel blitz and RB would bet his yards. Salinas QB figured out the blitz which Carmel defense did every play and would be different game. Aptos would have some trouble with pass but Carmel wouldn't stop their offense. They would all go undefeated in Carmel's league (with carmel potentially winning a game), but wouldn't be favorite.

You were pretty confident about Salinas rolling over Carmel preseason too. Duly noted.

 

[NorCalSportsFan]

Several teams Carmel faced in the Mission Div played in the Gabilan prior, and nobody was beating them by 60. Sounds like your guys wouldn't even have to get off the bus to beat Carmel.

OK....Palma, Aptos, and Salinas would win by 4+ TDs with Hollister at 2TDs+, while Carmel wins by 2 and 1 TD against the rest of the best in their league. Carmel would be middle of the pack in Gab and Alisal and MVC not bottom but towards the bottom.

 

[NorCalSportsFan]

You were pretty confident about Salinas rolling over Carmel preseason too. Duly noted.

Carmel didn't opt up which is their decision, but it is a good indication their coach knows they can't compete in the division. Better insight than you have. No basis to brag about carmel now. They are very good in a small pond.