CENTRAL (Fresno) 29 Buchanan 7 Final
- Thread starter FootballJunkie101
- Start date
If Central wins, I'd think they'd have the inside track for one of the D1 Regional spots considering their lone loss was to DLS in a game they represented quite well. Not many put up 30 on DLS.
I totally agree with you TR. I think Central would represent the Regional game very well. They have a very athletic and physical team with quality coaching.
If Folsom manages to beat St. Mary's, I don't see how we don't have a Central v. Folsom matchup. I know some would like to see PITT get the nod should they represent well against DLS .. but they'd have 2 losses albeit to elite teams. IMO, they'd have to lose a 1 score game to the Spartans to edge out Central.
Who wants to see Pitt get the nod? NCS fans living in a bubble, sort of similar to some of those Patterson fans I told you about that don't pay attention to football outside of Patterson. Sure I can see NCS fans living in a bubble thinking Pitt should go, but reality is if Central wins CS, they have best resume for the D1AA game. I would be surprised if Pitt got selected over Central.
Pitt’s goal is to beat DLS, not lose by a little so they can qualify to play in a different game. I would love to see Pitt win and get the nod.
Should Pitt somehow knock off Sparty, would Folsom, who has struggled of late, get the nod for what should be the ultimate goal for every team, the Open? That would be over a 1 loss team that beat DLS, and a 1 loss team who lost a close one to DLS?
They may feel they would be deserving, but would most likely not get a shot due to the “Folsom rule”.
Should Pitt somehow knock off Sparty, would Folsom, who has struggled of late, get the nod for what should be the ultimate goal for every team, the Open? That would be over a 1 loss team that beat DLS, and a 1 loss team who lost a close one to DLS?
They may feel they would be deserving, but would most likely not get a shot due to the “Folsom rule”.
Last edited:
Assuming some results for next week, it looks like Central at Folslm and Oakdale at Pittsburg will be the D1 games. Pretty fun matchups.
Streak,No doubt Oakdale is a great team,great season,and worthy of a D1 game. Has a D3 section winner ever moved up and played in a D1 NorCal game? I would not rule out the Ram's either.
Totally agree. The Rams have some of the best athletes in the SJS and a championship coaching staff. I'm not ruling them out that's for sure. I'll give my prediction on this game later in the week. Too close to call right now.
Pretty disrespectful statement there. NCS fans living in a bubble?Why don’t we wait until after Pitt vs DLS to see about that question. Have you seen Pitt play this year?Do you know Centrals strength of schedule relative to Pitts to make a comparison between the two?
Central lost by 19 to DLS. Why is Pitt required to come within 1 score of DLS should they lose to DLS?
Because they will need to do something to overcome the fact that they'll have 2 losses (with Central only having one) and no section title.
Secondly, PITT isn't likely to put up 30 points on DLS as Central did -- which is an impressive feat considering how few times it has happened -- and I don't believe losing to DLS by a few points less is going to wow the committee enough to overcome the 2nd loss and no section title. But a real close loss where they're in it til the end just might sway. That's my reasoning anyway.
In short, all things won't be equal with Central and Pitt (assuming Pitt loses and Central wins) and the Pirates will need to far surpass Central's performance against DLS to bridge the gap --- if indeed it can be.
Having 2 losses? It’s as much WHO the losses are to. Did Central play the equivalent of Corona Centennial?Are you saying Central would beat Centennial? Pitt shouldn’t be penalized for that loss.You still haven’t shown any superiority with regard to Centrals schedule other than the fact they’d have one loss. That’s why we have to see the outcome of DLS vs Pitt before just awarding Central the spot over Pitt
Not disrespectful at all. There are fans from every section, not just NCS, that don't see football outside of their section. Those certain fans tend to make bold predictions about certain teams they support, but it's blind support when they don't posses knowledge of the competition. Not saying this applies to you, but it definitely applies to some.
To answer your question, I've been a fan and have followed NCS, including Pitt for over 30 years, played ball in the EBAL back in the late 80's, so my HS football roots come from there, despite currently being closely tied to the PHS football team in the SJS. So yes, I have followed Pitt this year and am well aware of their skill level along with their schedule. Unless they either beat DLS or at least keep it real close, I just don't see them getting selected over Central. Just my opinion and might be wrong. Of course all respective section finals need to be played still and different than expected outcomes will change everything.
The CIF will see a loss, despite being a loss to Cen10, it's still a loss and will do nothing to help Pitt, but could potentially hurt them. You say they should not be penalized, but reality is a loss regardless of to who, can hurt. Of course Pitt still has to lose to DLS for this conversation to really become a serious one.
Streak One, why do you assume a Pitt-Oakdale matchup would be played in Pittsburgh?
I've maintained for a while that if all teams win as generally predicted, Central should be matched with Folsom. Of course Central has to beat Buchanan, Folsom must beat St. Mary's and Pittsburg must lose to DLS. Pittsburg is good choice but the selection committee has to give some concessions for Pittsburg such as over looking 2 losses and a runner up in playoff finals. Central will have only one loss to DLS and will be a sectional champ for CS Div I
The fact this conversation is even happening is sad. First games need to be played. but for all practical purposes the NCS or any section “Loser” should not be rewarded and move on whoever it is. Horrible precedent to set the bar that low.
I just have a hard time with the concept that you don’t have to win a section title to move on. But someone like Monte Vista last year takes care of business on the field and wins their last game and gets “rewarded” by sitting home while someone who couldn’t get it done the week before gets that opportunity.
If Central wins out they deserve a bid over the loser of Pitt and DLS.
I just have a hard time with the concept that you don’t have to win a section title to move on. But someone like Monte Vista last year takes care of business on the field and wins their last game and gets “rewarded” by sitting home while someone who couldn’t get it done the week before gets that opportunity.
If Central wins out they deserve a bid over the loser of Pitt and DLS.
Come on Bella, you've been on these boards for awhile and you know as well as I do there are always threads discussing potential match-ups that are predicated on certain teams winning or losing before the conversation can even get serious.
With that said I agree with the idea that losers getting to move on sets a bad precedent, but at the same time I don't think there is any dispute that both DLS and Pitt our bowl worthy teams for the North.
There is always going to be this controversy about how the sections move teams to the next step. Unfortunately having the current set-up in place with the different sections is the weak link in CA as far as this state having a true state playoff system, which would be much more fair than what we got.
I will keep dreaming and hoping one day CA will have a better system in place. In the meantime I will continue to enjoy the current set-up, despite how unfair it is, as it is still better than when everything ended with a section championship prior to 06.
So if Central had played Cen10 in the preseason and lost to them by just 5 scores and went on to win their section championship who would you say is worthy than, Pitt or Central? To be honest, I'd rather see a team that didn't get exposed by 6 scores to a SoCal team play the winner of St. Mary's and Folsom. I'm on record praising the teams that play a strong SOS in the preseason but when you're not a section champion and you have more losses than a team that is a section champion we have to put that into consideration. Let the outcome of the DLS game be a part of the determining factor along with the W/L record and strength of schedule. If this method shows both teams are pretty close to being equal to each other then the right thing to do is to allow the one loss section champ play in the Regional game. That's all I'm saying. Who would argue with that???
Agree on your points.
For there to be a true state football championship you’d need to blowup all the sections up and start over from scratch (which would be a great thing). Have set and defined criteria so everyone knows what they need to do.
It would depend on what the rest of Central’s schedule looked like. Centennial is better than ANYBODY in the North, including DLS.The DLS that starts the season is not the DLS team that enters the playoffs. They are always at their most vulnerable earlier in the season, a PROVEN fact for anybody that has paid any attention over the years.Also, prior to the season opener at Centennial, Pitt had lost their returning starter at QB for the season. So their current starter, a junior, was making his first career start. Just for the sake of full disclosure.Point is that the DLS that Pitt will play will be better than the version Central played.So comparing scores might be a moot point.Definitly feel Pitt would give Centennial a better game in a rematch.
I too believe Pitt would probably put up a better fight against Cen10 if the 2 played now, based on different factors that have effected each team.
It has also been mentioned by many that Central had the luxury of facing DLS early in the year, so the results probably look better than what it would look like if the 2 faced each other today; however the CIF won't place any emphasis on this fact when trying to decide the regional match-ups. They will simply look at the results of each game. Just like Pitt won't get any consideration for losing to a highly ranked national opponent that they may or may not play better against at this point of the season.
I also agree teams should not get penalized for playing a tough pre-season schedule when they take a few losses, but the losses still factor into one of the key selection criteria, which is win/loss record.
Regardless of what I think Pitts potential is, I stand by the prediction that if Pitt loses, Folsom wins and Central wins, than it will probably be Central playing in the D1AA game with Folsom.
Again, just my opinion, so who knows what will actually happen.
Do you believe Pitt can beat Folsom or St. Mary's for that matter? I've looked at a little film on both Central and Pitt and I personally believe Pitt would cause more problems for Folsom or St. Mary's in the Regional game than Central. On defense Central catches a lot of blocks whereas Pitt is bigger and plays down hill. Offensively both Pitt and Central cancel themselves out because both programs or dependent on their athletic ability and passing game to score points. I'm not a fan of neither one of their offenses.
That said, I also believe Pitt would come in with a bigger chip on their shoulder to knock off the SJS champ. I believe Central would come in to win but if down by a few scores they may pack it up. I see Pitt fighting to the end in this game. I also believe Pitt playing a Cen10 early in the season is a strength and would motivate them to win in a Regional game. I go with Pitt if they can prevent DLS from beating them by more than 5 scores. In closing, I believe Folsom can beat either team and if St. Mary's played their best game I could see them winning the Regional game as well.
Since we are looking forward I will give the potential so Cal participants in these games
Of course the winner of MD vs SJB will claim the Open spot
D1AA game potential match up for Folsom/St Mary’s/Central I believe will be the winner of Oaks Christian vs Valencia playing SDS Open winner Either Mission Hills or Helix.
The D1A game is little tricky as the highest rated team expected to win their Section is D5 Paraclete who has a 17 point win over Helix on their resume.Also Los Angeles City Section Narbonne and the winner of SS D3 between Rancho Verde and St Francis (La Canada) all are in the mix
Of course the winner of MD vs SJB will claim the Open spot
D1AA game potential match up for Folsom/St Mary’s/Central I believe will be the winner of Oaks Christian vs Valencia playing SDS Open winner Either Mission Hills or Helix.
The D1A game is little tricky as the highest rated team expected to win their Section is D5 Paraclete who has a 17 point win over Helix on their resume.Also Los Angeles City Section Narbonne and the winner of SS D3 between Rancho Verde and St Francis (La Canada) all are in the mix
nascar624 is spot on. A loss is a loss. If it had been a close loss (to a Nationally elite team), then perhaps it wouldn't hurt them so badly. But it wasn't close. And would be one of 2 losses.
By that logic, a team should only schedule elite programs in the preseason. Win and your season is made, lose and it's like it never happened. That doesn't make any sense, now does it?
I agree with all of this. Unless it's a double-elimination tourney for ALL teams from the outset, it makes no sense whatsoever for a team to move on after a loss. It defeats the purpose of a tournament. While the section, regional and State games are technically separate from each other, they are realistically tied together. And a team needs to win their section/region to advance.
C'mon now. It's not like the Central-DLS game was the 1st or 2nd game of the season. It was week 4 and the 5th game of the season for both teams. Not the textbook definition of early. In fact, it was the last game of the midway point.
Furthermore, since the Lad era began in 1979, DLS has surrendered 30+ in a regular season game only 14 times. Half of those were to out-of-state foes, mostly on the road and to Nationally elite teams. A SoCal/NorCal team has only accomplished the feat 7 times in 39 seasons. To put that further into perspective, DLS has 10 regular season losses to NorCal foe during that same time frame. So scoring 30+ occurs about as frequently as actually beating DLS.
In short, it's actually kinda a big accomplishment regardless whether it occurs in Week 0 or Week 10. And Central was still in that game down only 35-30 until it got away from them late in the 3rd.
Unless Pitt can stay competitive deeper into the game -- which to me would probably result in a 1 score game -- I just don't see how anyone can legitimately argue that they should bump a Section Champ that has 1-less loss and that accomplished something against DLS that has only been done 7 times in 39 seasons.
Pitt is gonna have to do something bigger than that, IMO.
Last edited:
I think Pitt is a better team. While it is Pitt has one more loss, both DLS and Centennial are better than Folsom and Pitt has the potential to have wins over two sections champs (Serra and Liberty/Freedom) and a 9 win San Ramon Valley.
A little more is involved in the analysis than what you portray. Previous regional and state venue decisions have borne that out over time.
For the most part, I agree with you; however in DLS' case, they tend to keep peaking until the end. Not saying their the only team to do this, but with DLS, they have shown this time and time again and are typically not the same team they were in week 4 or 5, where I have seen plenty of teams take a step back by seasons end. I don't believe if Central and DLS played again at this point that Central would put 30 on them. Doesn't matter though as it goes down in the books where they did put 30 on em and that can work in Centrals favor should DLS blow the doors off of Pitt.
I agree that Folsom could beat either Pitt or Central, but they also would be getting all they could handle, and could also lose to either
That is a great point. It is reality though something I strongly disagree with.
A loss is a loss, so why schedule nationally ranked opponents, when others can skate by with the regional competition and not have to worry about running the table. Just what we need, right? Technicality of being undefeated vs a loss or two to far superior opposition. Is that what it’s come down to? Pretty pathetic
I partially agree with you.
Yes, we know DLS seems to improve more than most. But the consensus is that they are more vulnerable real early in the season e.g., the first game or two. But 5 games in is a different story. I think you see steeper improvement from the 1st game of the season to games 3 or 4 than you see from game 5 to now.
While I also do agree that it's not likely Central would score 30 on them now, I didn't think it was too likely back when they did it ... but they still did. Historical data backs that up. Doesn't matter what time of year, DLS just doesn't surrender 30 very often. And you can chalk those rare occurrences to one of a couple things: Nationally elite team, on the road out-of-state, or during one of DLS's down seasons e.g. 2004, 2005.
This doesn't seem to qualify as a 2004 or 2005 or even 2016 type team and wasn't on the road, out-of-state. So what Central did was pretty rare, especially for a NorCal team. They also did it in the Spartans backyard and not late in the game ie. garbage time.
Whether Central is truly better than Pitt or not, what they accomplished is about as rare as DLS losing to a NorCal opponent since 1979. Since that is their only loss, I think it will and should carry some weight. Conversely if Pitt is to put up a much better fight, I think it would and should carry equal weight. But simply losing by 18 instead of 19 in a 35-17 type score wouldn't do the trick IMO. But a real close loss just might.
We shall see.
I don't disagree. And I for one applaud Pitt for scheduling as they did. Just as I applauded St. Mary's, Del Oro, and Sacramento (among others) for doing the same in recent years. I wish more teams would do it. It's a risk-reward thing. Sometimes it helps you, sometimes it doesn't.
I recall it helping Del Oro back in 2011 when they lost a real close game in OT to Westlake in Week 1. Westlake ended up in the Open that season against DLS. That close loss helped get them into the D2 State game. But a blowout loss can have the opposite effect.
But I think we all agree that if Piit manages to beat DLS, then the blowout loss to Centennial won't matter with regards to getting the bid over Central. Hell, they might get the Open over Folsom in that circumstance (should they beat St. Mary's), even with the 1 loss.
Last edited:
After reading your response, I'm thinking you slightly misinterpreted my initial post. I too agree that dropping 30 on DLS at any point in a season is a rarity unless it's against a top nationally ranked team, but my comment about Central being lucky to get DLS earlier in the season was more of a comparison to Central facing a week 5 DLS team vs Pitt who is facing a NCS Final DLS team. My point is that if Pitt faced a week 5 DLS team the odds of them giving DLS a better game is greater than facing them in the section championship game. I'm not ruling out the possibility that Pitt still does give them a competitive game or does the unthinkable and win. Unfortunately for Pitt if they lose, but still keep it respectable somewhat, will probably not be enough to overcome 2 losses and being a section runner-up to get picked over Central if they win CS.
Imo, even if the loss to Cen10 was respectable, it still would not matter since Cen10's season is now over with 2 losses themselves. We all know they had some injury issues which hurt them, but officially Pitt lost badly to a team that lost in the semifinal of their own section.
I think it was you or maybe someone else who said scheduling tough can be a slippery slope when it comes to selection time. Either it can greatly help you or it can hurt you. Just depends on how everything plays out.
Pitts D line will be a challenge for every team, including DLS. Pitts O line is pretty average again this year.
Hence, their holding SRV to just 7 points last week, while only putting up 16 themselves.
DLS is better than SRV in all phases, so the Pirates will need to come with their A game this week and keep DLS to their C game (which is rare come playoff time).
Have moved from area and just checking in with you guys but have a question
To me, top seeds ought to be:
Open. DLS
1AA. Folsom v Central
1A. Pitt b Serra
I’m curious why no one has suggested Serra in 38 posts — seems like they’d be slotted ahead of Oakdale even if only to preserve Oakdale to a more appropriate SBG level
To me, top seeds ought to be:
Open. DLS
1AA. Folsom v Central
1A. Pitt b Serra
I’m curious why no one has suggested Serra in 38 posts — seems like they’d be slotted ahead of Oakdale even if only to preserve Oakdale to a more appropriate SBG level
