D1 Predictions
- Thread starter keepitreal.32
- Start date
Ya no upsets in the first round. The top 8 seeds minus heritage all could have been considered Norcal Open teams.
No upsets? Come on, I thought with competitive equity, there has to be some lower seeds that should win. Or is it just so no more first round blowouts by 30-50 points? Last year in D1, only 1 upset in which 14 seed beat a 3.
Which upset do you see happening here? I don't see one. I see competive games yes. Upsets no.
I guess I'll go with Heritage then since they were only top 8 seed not in contention for the Open. McClatchy and Heritage actually know each other pretty well over the past 5 seasons, and should be a very good game. I love how the Heritage coach handles his team, but if McClatchy can play their style and pressure Heritage into turnovers, this could be an upset. I don't know how they will stop the Muse sisters though as they don't have any players over 5'10. I'm sure Heritage will try and slow the game down and play tough 2-3 or 1-3-1 zone and just clog up the middle with their length and size. McClatchy will have to shoot well from the outside. In all their losses, they shot terribly from the 3 point line. So this will most likely be one of their biggest keys to winning.
I like this pick. I just think it's a terrible matchup for Mclatchy. They'll get absolutely nothing near the rim and will need to make 10 plus 3s to win which i don't think they will.
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Is Tuttle still out for Heritage? Yes, I agree they will need to make some 3s. But most importantly they will need to cause some turnovers. I like the way Julie Martinez is playing right now, but in my opinion, she isn't a true point guard. McClatchy will need to cause some havoc and get some steals and transition baskets.
I'm way more interested in the D1 bracket than I am the open Btw. More games, great matchups, all 5 of the top 5 seeds and Antelope can win it all. Exciting games. Not Mitty's fault they are pure greatness but the open division is a race for 2nd and there is only 3 total games for the entire bracket.
4 games. The “play in” game, 2 semis & the final. Still, not quite the excitement we’ll get from D1.
I 100% agree with the first part of your comment... but not so much with the latter half.
While Mitty will be favored without a doubt, we saw last year when they had a bye and laid an egg in the second round. Just like the NCAA tournament, the team that wins the "play in" game has a great shot at an upset. They are already in the playoff groove, have already faced a win or go home scenario, and have already gotten those playoff butterflies out of their system. While SMS and CN fans may dread going to San Jose, their chances may be better than they think
I agree with you and LBJ6. This is the only D1 first-round game that could be interesting with any upset potential. Not a good matchup for McClatchy, as I remember the last time they played each other last season at Heritage and McClatchy could NOT make any outside shots and lost by 29 points. Heritage will clog the middle and the key with a solid defense. But Heritage did lose to Folsom this season and McClatchy did beat Folsom this season because McClatchy made 13, 3-pointers. Another interesting, intangible aspect is that Heritage has only played ONE game since 2/12, some 12 days ago against CN on 2/20 (or one game in the last 20 days by tomorrow). While McClatchy has played FOUR games since 2/12, (or four games in the last 20 days by tomorrow), the last being on 2/24. So inactivity and rustiness could become a factor facing Heritage. Also of note: Heritage has several huge wins against Open caliber teams, but MaxPreps has them ranked #70 in the state, while they have McClatchy ranked #29, primarily due to Heritage's league SOS.
Oak Ridge vs. Menlo -- not sure of the condition of Oak Ridge's Erica Ingram who got hurt in late in the 4th quarter against McClatchy on 2/24. But I still don't see Menlo upsetting Oak Ridge even if Ingram doesn't play. Otherwise, no other potential 1st round upsets envisioned in D1.
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So you guys think SRV has no chance to win at Antelope? They looked awfully good against San Leandro. If they shoot anywhere near as accurately as they did vs SL, they’ll be in that game.
You read my mind. Don’t sleep on SRV. Look at the common opponents as SRV had 2 starters on the bench with injuries for all three. 3 starters out vs American which the outcome against SLHS wasn’t a surprise.
That travel is brutal and the team waiting is dominant with athletes and D1 talent. Great game
I think SRV is an interesting match up with Antelope. I know Paige Gerhart is one heck of a player. But in no way is she same level as Harriel. This Antelope bunch and their crowd will be in full force tomorrow night. I think SRV can compete for a half with them, but I think Antelope will prove to be a little too talented for them.
One more note: on the boys side, I saw De la Salle jump 3 NCS open teams that lost in the first round of open after De la won D1. On the girls side the open seeding remained consitent before the D1 and D2 winners. Can someone explain?
Fair enough. It’s really too bad this is a first round game as both teams could easily have been seeded a little higher. Should be a good game.
Actually DLS even jumped over an NCS Open team that won their first Open game (Campolindo). NCS D1 Boys winner DLS gets a 4 seed and home game while NCS D1 Girls winner SRV gets a 9 seed an away game at Antelope. No consistency at all.
I assume you are referring to Brooklyn Perry. Yes, She is out for the season. While she has had a lot of big games and can really light it up on any given night, PG is one position that SMS has a lot of depth at. Both Nia Anderson and Tai Sherman have also had those kinds of games. Of course, it is also statistically better to have three of those types of players rather than two.
Tai Sherman has to be a key for CN as she makes a lot happen for St Mary’s. She can get to the bucket at will and finish at any time. Amaya Oliver has had an amazing season after recovering from her knee injury and is dominant down low. But CN is capable of beating anyone with Choice. This has got to be a toss up game. CN will not be intimidated or rattled by the SMS press and is so well coached. This could come down to whoever can hit a big shot down the stretch. I think Choice knows she needs to stay out of foul trouble and can be the difference maker.
Good question.. I don't know anything about SMS this year as I haven't seen them play. CN as we have all seen runs through Choice. If she is allowed to do her thing they can beat anyone. But if she is out of the game then (especially with late foul trouble or fouling out completely) anyone can beat them.
Originally I thought SMS was going to get a higher seed than the 4 so my early money would have been on them, again strictly based on on rankings and what others were saying. Now maybe the committee knows better?? Yea right... Lets say SMS by 2
The 12-team Open (statewide) has created immediate intriguing matchups in all divisions, so credit to the committee there.
But ... why not put Clovis West in the South for an eight-team bracket and leave the North at four? And SoCal Division I has an empty slot -- why not Clovis North there?
The only thing that makes sense in that regard is that CIF has an overall strategy to placate the Central Section -- which should be in the North to balance the number of schools statewide -- and avoid having to send teams from Bakersfield to play in Santa Rosa or vice versa by keeping the Central, as a whole, in the South.
After all, Clovis West would be the last seed in the SoCal Open, and Clovis North would probably not get a home game in Socal D-I, so they clearly would be pushing to go North.
Ideally? Restructure the state sections, and balance the numbers to get them down to four or eight total. But that won't happen because the Southern Section is very happy the way things are, and the Southern Section has enough votes to block any changes.
But ... why not put Clovis West in the South for an eight-team bracket and leave the North at four? And SoCal Division I has an empty slot -- why not Clovis North there?
The only thing that makes sense in that regard is that CIF has an overall strategy to placate the Central Section -- which should be in the North to balance the number of schools statewide -- and avoid having to send teams from Bakersfield to play in Santa Rosa or vice versa by keeping the Central, as a whole, in the South.
After all, Clovis West would be the last seed in the SoCal Open, and Clovis North would probably not get a home game in Socal D-I, so they clearly would be pushing to go North.
Ideally? Restructure the state sections, and balance the numbers to get them down to four or eight total. But that won't happen because the Southern Section is very happy the way things are, and the Southern Section has enough votes to block any changes.
Correct. The Southern Section is not the elephant in the room. It's the blue whale on steroids in the front driveway.
Like I said, can't sleep on SRV as a NCS Division 1 Champion. 68-63 over Antelope.
