CCS Play-off Projections after Week 6
With four weeks to go there is enough of a pattern to provide a reasonable projection for the play-offs. 35 of the play-off spots will be from automatic qualifiers based on league standings. The final five spots will be at-large positions. Two of these will go to the 5th and 6th place finishers in the WCAL leaving three at-large spots for the rest of the section. Currently these project to Mountain View, Alisal and Aptos, but Alisal, Aptos, Hollister, Kings Academy, and Milpitas are all separated by about 1.5 point for the final two at-large berths.
Division I
8. Mitty 5-5 63 at Serra 10-0 88.5
7. Wilcox 7-3 64 at St. Francis 7-3 78.5
6. Valley Christian 6-4 68.5 at 3. Los Gatos 8-2 74
5. Riordan 7-3 72 at 4. St. Ignatius 6-4 73
Serra will likely be the #1 seed. Seeds 2-7 will be determined between St. Francis, Riordan, Saint Ignatius, Los Gatos and Wilcox and the winner of Valley Christian and Mitty in week 10. The final spot should come down to the winner of the #6 team from the WCAL (likely loser of Mitty and Valley Christian) winner of the Gabilan (likely Salinas), or the winner of the Deanza (Menlo or Hillsdale).
Division II
8. Monterey 7-3 49 at 1. Salinas 7-3 62.5
5. Soquel 7-2 55.9 at 4. Hillsdale 9-1 57.5
6. Sacred Heart Prep 5-5 54 at Live Oak 9-0 58.33
7. Capuchino 10-0 49.5 at 2. Menlo 10-0 61
Division III
8. Fremont 9-1 39.5 at 1. Carmel 10-0 48
5. Palma 3-7 43 at 4. Scotts Valley 9-1 43.5
6. Aptos 3-7 40.5 at 3. Menlo Atherton 4-6 46
7. Aragon 7-3 40 at 2. Christopher 9-1 46.5
Division IV
8. Burlingame 4-6 30.5 at 1. Palo Alto 5-5 39
5. Alisal 8-2 36 at 4. Leigh 8-2 36.5
6. Seaside 7-3 33.5 at Mountain View 4-6 38.5
7. Willow Glen 7-2 32.1 at 2. North Salinas 8-2 39
Division V
8. Pioneer 6-4 20 at 1. Branham 8-2 29.5
5. South San Francisco 9-1 24.5 at 4. Woodside 6-4 26
6. Lincoln 5-5 23 at 3. Greenfield 9-1 26.5
7. Prospect 9-1 20.5 at 2. Santa Teresa 5-5 28.5
WCAL – Only one CCS team last year was able to come within two touchdowns of Serra and this year doesn’t figure to be any different. Second place will likely be determined in the week 9 game between Riordan and St. Francis. Saint Ignatius should get the fourth AQ spot and the two at-large spots for the fifth and sixth place finishers will likely be Mitty and Valley Christian.
PAL Bay – Los Gatos and Wilcox are the two top public schools in the section and will likely square off for the league championship in their week 9 game. Both have played some tough non-league opponents with Los Gatos playing Pittsburg, Grant and Liberty while Wilcox challenged themselves with Edison (Huntington Beach) and Valley Christian. The other three automatic spots will go to Sacred Heart Prep, Menlo-Atherton and Burlingame. Mountain View should get at -large berth.
Gabilan - This league is highly competitive without a truly dominant team. Salinas is the favorite after losing three difficult non-league contests. They still have to overcome Monterey and Palma after defeating Aptos and Soquel. Second through fifth figures to be a dog fight between pretty evenly matched teams in Aptos, Monterey, Soquel and Palma. The fifth place team will be on the bubble for an at-large berth. Currently Aptos is slated to be in 5th place and receive the last at-large berth. Hollister still has a good chance to make the play-offs if they can gain another upset win down the stretch.
Deanza – Menlo and Hillsdale square off in a battle of undefeated teams with the winner likely to win the league and the loser will get one of the league’s three automatic spots. The third spot should go. To the week 10 winner between Kings Academy and Palo Alto with the loser being on the bubble for an at-large spot.
Mt Hamilton – An exceptionally weak A league. Christopher and Live Oak should both go into their week 10 game undefeated. Santa Teresa is likely to come in 3rd and the final automatic spot should go to the week 10 contest between Lincoln and Leland. The last two automatic qualifiers are ranked so low in the section they will likely go to Division V for the play-offs.
PAL Ocean – This is the top-rated B league and gets two automatic spots. This league is competitive top to bottom but the top two spots should be between Capuchino, Aragon and Milpitas with the third place team being on the bubble for an at-large spot.
Mission South – the second highest rated B league. It looks like Carmel will win the league having already defeated the two highest rated opponents in the league. The winner of the week 9 game between North Salinas and Alisal should get the second spot with the loser being on the bubble for an at-large spot. Pacific Grove is still lurking at 6-0 but play their four most difficult opponents over the next four weeks and they will be an underdog in three of them.
El Camino – Fremont is the favorite with Woodside, Santa Clara and Los Altos competing for the second spot. Santa Clara holds a win over Woodside.
Mission North – Scotts Valley and Seaside are heavy favorites to take the top two spots. They play each other in week 8.
Santa Teresa Foothill - Branham is a favorite to win the league. Second place should be a close battle between silver Creek, Piedmont Hills, Independence and Pioneer with Pioneer currently projected for this spot. Whoever prevails for this final slot will likely be in DV for the playoffs.
Santa Teresa Valley – Leigh and Willow Glen are the two favorites over Sobrato, Westmont and Overfelt for the two automatic spots. This should also be a competitive league.
PAL Lake – South San Francisco is the favorite to gain the leagues only play-off spot. Cupertino is still undefeated in league play as well.
Santa Lucia – Greenfield is the favorite over Stevenson and Gonzales for the league’s only play-off spot.
West Valley - Prospect is a close favorite over Del Mar for the section’s weakest league.
With four weeks to go there is enough of a pattern to provide a reasonable projection for the play-offs. 35 of the play-off spots will be from automatic qualifiers based on league standings. The final five spots will be at-large positions. Two of these will go to the 5th and 6th place finishers in the WCAL leaving three at-large spots for the rest of the section. Currently these project to Mountain View, Alisal and Aptos, but Alisal, Aptos, Hollister, Kings Academy, and Milpitas are all separated by about 1.5 point for the final two at-large berths.
Division I
8. Mitty 5-5 63 at Serra 10-0 88.5
7. Wilcox 7-3 64 at St. Francis 7-3 78.5
6. Valley Christian 6-4 68.5 at 3. Los Gatos 8-2 74
5. Riordan 7-3 72 at 4. St. Ignatius 6-4 73
Serra will likely be the #1 seed. Seeds 2-7 will be determined between St. Francis, Riordan, Saint Ignatius, Los Gatos and Wilcox and the winner of Valley Christian and Mitty in week 10. The final spot should come down to the winner of the #6 team from the WCAL (likely loser of Mitty and Valley Christian) winner of the Gabilan (likely Salinas), or the winner of the Deanza (Menlo or Hillsdale).
Division II
8. Monterey 7-3 49 at 1. Salinas 7-3 62.5
5. Soquel 7-2 55.9 at 4. Hillsdale 9-1 57.5
6. Sacred Heart Prep 5-5 54 at Live Oak 9-0 58.33
7. Capuchino 10-0 49.5 at 2. Menlo 10-0 61
Division III
8. Fremont 9-1 39.5 at 1. Carmel 10-0 48
5. Palma 3-7 43 at 4. Scotts Valley 9-1 43.5
6. Aptos 3-7 40.5 at 3. Menlo Atherton 4-6 46
7. Aragon 7-3 40 at 2. Christopher 9-1 46.5
Division IV
8. Burlingame 4-6 30.5 at 1. Palo Alto 5-5 39
5. Alisal 8-2 36 at 4. Leigh 8-2 36.5
6. Seaside 7-3 33.5 at Mountain View 4-6 38.5
7. Willow Glen 7-2 32.1 at 2. North Salinas 8-2 39
Division V
8. Pioneer 6-4 20 at 1. Branham 8-2 29.5
5. South San Francisco 9-1 24.5 at 4. Woodside 6-4 26
6. Lincoln 5-5 23 at 3. Greenfield 9-1 26.5
7. Prospect 9-1 20.5 at 2. Santa Teresa 5-5 28.5
WCAL – Only one CCS team last year was able to come within two touchdowns of Serra and this year doesn’t figure to be any different. Second place will likely be determined in the week 9 game between Riordan and St. Francis. Saint Ignatius should get the fourth AQ spot and the two at-large spots for the fifth and sixth place finishers will likely be Mitty and Valley Christian.
PAL Bay – Los Gatos and Wilcox are the two top public schools in the section and will likely square off for the league championship in their week 9 game. Both have played some tough non-league opponents with Los Gatos playing Pittsburg, Grant and Liberty while Wilcox challenged themselves with Edison (Huntington Beach) and Valley Christian. The other three automatic spots will go to Sacred Heart Prep, Menlo-Atherton and Burlingame. Mountain View should get at -large berth.
Gabilan - This league is highly competitive without a truly dominant team. Salinas is the favorite after losing three difficult non-league contests. They still have to overcome Monterey and Palma after defeating Aptos and Soquel. Second through fifth figures to be a dog fight between pretty evenly matched teams in Aptos, Monterey, Soquel and Palma. The fifth place team will be on the bubble for an at-large berth. Currently Aptos is slated to be in 5th place and receive the last at-large berth. Hollister still has a good chance to make the play-offs if they can gain another upset win down the stretch.
Deanza – Menlo and Hillsdale square off in a battle of undefeated teams with the winner likely to win the league and the loser will get one of the league’s three automatic spots. The third spot should go. To the week 10 winner between Kings Academy and Palo Alto with the loser being on the bubble for an at-large spot.
Mt Hamilton – An exceptionally weak A league. Christopher and Live Oak should both go into their week 10 game undefeated. Santa Teresa is likely to come in 3rd and the final automatic spot should go to the week 10 contest between Lincoln and Leland. The last two automatic qualifiers are ranked so low in the section they will likely go to Division V for the play-offs.
PAL Ocean – This is the top-rated B league and gets two automatic spots. This league is competitive top to bottom but the top two spots should be between Capuchino, Aragon and Milpitas with the third place team being on the bubble for an at-large spot.
Mission South – the second highest rated B league. It looks like Carmel will win the league having already defeated the two highest rated opponents in the league. The winner of the week 9 game between North Salinas and Alisal should get the second spot with the loser being on the bubble for an at-large spot. Pacific Grove is still lurking at 6-0 but play their four most difficult opponents over the next four weeks and they will be an underdog in three of them.
El Camino – Fremont is the favorite with Woodside, Santa Clara and Los Altos competing for the second spot. Santa Clara holds a win over Woodside.
Mission North – Scotts Valley and Seaside are heavy favorites to take the top two spots. They play each other in week 8.
Santa Teresa Foothill - Branham is a favorite to win the league. Second place should be a close battle between silver Creek, Piedmont Hills, Independence and Pioneer with Pioneer currently projected for this spot. Whoever prevails for this final slot will likely be in DV for the playoffs.
Santa Teresa Valley – Leigh and Willow Glen are the two favorites over Sobrato, Westmont and Overfelt for the two automatic spots. This should also be a competitive league.
PAL Lake – South San Francisco is the favorite to gain the leagues only play-off spot. Cupertino is still undefeated in league play as well.
Santa Lucia – Greenfield is the favorite over Stevenson and Gonzales for the league’s only play-off spot.
West Valley - Prospect is a close favorite over Del Mar for the section’s weakest league.