NCS post-season bracketing: What I understand

[ClayK]

It's a two-part process:

1) MaxPreps rankings will determine what teams are placed in what bracket -- regardless of the margins involved. At this moment, for example, Justin-Siena has a strength rating of 23.34, putting them sixth in the section and in the Open. Clayton Valley Charter's 23.32 puts them seventh and in Division 1.

Acording to what I know, that would be set in stone, even if CVC had played Justin-Siena and won by 30.

2) Once the brackets are set, the committee can seed as it sees fit. So at that point, head-to-head and other factors can come into play. Obviously, the MaxPreps algorithm will still have a very strong say, but adjustments can be made.

Given the big difference between being 16 in one division and 1 in the next lowest, I'm OK with the decision being by the numbers rather than a committee's subjectivity. Of course it won't be perfect, but no system is.

Note that 102 teams can be fit into the NCS brackets out of the 153 schools in the section. One question I don't know the answer to: If, say, only 96 teams qualify, or want to be in, which brackets absorb the six byes? Does Division VI then go with 10? Or does each division have only 15 teams?

The latest section rankings can be found at:

Girls Basketball

norcalpreps.forums.rivals.com

 

[Coach Cardinal]

So Clay - a few questions.

1) Top 6 in the rankings will be assigned to the Open Division. Then the next 16 (ranked 7-22) go D1, the next 16 (ranked 23-38) to D2, and so on. --- BUT teams can only move up/down TWO divisions if not assigned to the Open Division.
So a team like Salesian (D4) currently ranked in NCS at #10 would be the #1 seed in D2? Is that correct?
St. Bernard (D5), currently NCS ranked #12, would be the #1 seed in D3? Is that correct?

2) Will the committee look at a team - say TEAM A - that is ranked ahead of another team - say TEAM B - in MaxPreps but Team A finishes behind Team B in league play - will Team A be seeded via MaxPreps ranking or will the committee make adjustments, taking into account league finishes or is overall schedule weighted more?

3) Will a team have any say on how many divisions they move up or down or is that the sole discretion of the seeding committee? So will any team be allowed to stay in their assigned division or move up/down only one division versus the max two?

4) What happens to the NorCal auto bids? All SIX Open teams get auto bids while D1, D2, and D3 only get 2 while the other divisions (D4-6) get 4 bids. Do all the Norcal bids remain the same? Any discussion on awarding the auto bids differently?

 

[becoolpt55]

Acalanes, SRV and Clet in that order
Gartner is a very good coach

 

[northbaybbguru]

So Clay - a few questions.

1) Top 6 in the rankings will be assigned to the Open Division. Then the next 16 (ranked 7-22) go D1, the next 16 (ranked 23-38) to D2, and so on. --- BUT teams can only move up/down TWO divisions if not assigned to the Open Division.
So a team like Salesian (D4) currently ranked in NCS at #10 would be the #1 seed in D2? Is that correct?
St. Bernard (D5), currently NCS ranked #12, would be the #1 seed in D3? Is that correct?

2) Will the committee look at a team - say TEAM A - that is ranked ahead of another team - say TEAM B - in MaxPreps but Team A finishes behind Team B in league play - will Team A be seeded via MaxPreps ranking or will the committee make adjustments, taking into account league finishes or is overall schedule weighted more?

3) Will a team have any say on how many divisions they move up or down or is that the sole discretion of the seeding committee? So will any team be allowed to stay in their assigned division or move up/down only one division versus the max two?

4) What happens to the NorCal auto bids? All SIX Open teams get auto bids while D1, D2, and D3 only get 2 while the other divisions (D4-6) get 4 bids. Do all the Norcal bids remain the same? Any discussion on awarding the auto bids differently?

In Football....in response to question 2..

The Open took both Marin Catholic and Cardinal Newman from the same league. CN was rated as #4 in Max Preps while Marin was #5. Marin Catholic beat CN in league play h2h and finished ahead of CN. The committee flip floped the 2 in the Open puting MC at 4 and CN as 5.

 

[Coach Cardinal]

In Football....in response to question 2..

The Open took both Marin Catholic and Cardinal Newman from the same league. CN was rated as #4 in Max Preps while Marin was #5. Marin Catholic beat CN in league play h2h and finished ahead of CN. The committee flip floped the 2 in the Open puting MC at 4 and CN as 5.

Thank you Guru --- can we dig a little deeper here?

Say Team A is ranked around #18 overall in MaxPreps - so the top 6 go to the Open Division, then the next 16 into the D1 brackets - that would make Team A a #12 seed in D1 brackets.
Team B finished ahead of Team A in league play and won head-to-head - but is ranked #28 in MaxPreps - so Team B would be the #6 seed in D2.

Would the committee leave the teams where Maxpreps has seeded them OR move Team A down to D2, OR Team B up to D1?
Under the old rules - H2H, and league finish matter - I am trying to understand where that fits now with the new MaxPreps seeding.
In the example that Guru cited the committee made an adjustment, but it was tiny - ONE SPOT - some potential changes could be much larger and stretch across divisional brackets - moving a team from low seed and on the road to higher seed/home game and vice versa.

Thoughts?

 

[JSBraves10]

Thank you Guru --- can we dig a little deeper here?

Say Team A is ranked around #18 overall in MaxPreps - so the top 6 go to the Open Division, then the next 16 into the D1 brackets - that would make Team A a #12 seed in D1 brackets.
Team B finished ahead of Team A in league play and won head-to-head - but is ranked #28 in MaxPreps - so Team B would be the #6 seed in D2.

Would the committee leave the teams where Maxpreps has seeded them OR move Team A down to D2, OR Team B up to D1?
Under the old rules - H2H, and league finish matter - I am trying to understand where that fits now with the new MaxPreps seeding.
In the example that Guru cited the committee made an adjustment, but it was tiny - ONE SPOT - some potential changes could be much larger and stretch across divisional brackets - moving a team from low seed and on the road to higher seed/home game and vice versa.

Thoughts?

So Clay - a few questions.

1) Top 6 in the rankings will be assigned to the Open Division. Then the next 16 (ranked 7-22) go D1, the next 16 (ranked 23-38) to D2, and so on. --- BUT teams can only move up/down TWO divisions if not assigned to the Open Division.
So a team like Salesian (D4) currently ranked in NCS at #10 would be the #1 seed in D2? Is that correct?
St. Bernard (D5), currently NCS ranked #12, would be the #1 seed in D3? Is that correct?

2) Will the committee look at a team - say TEAM A - that is ranked ahead of another team - say TEAM B - in MaxPreps but Team A finishes behind Team B in league play - will Team A be seeded via MaxPreps ranking or will the committee make adjustments, taking into account league finishes or is overall schedule weighted more?

3) Will a team have any say on how many divisions they move up or down or is that the sole discretion of the seeding committee? So will any team be allowed to stay in their assigned division or move up/down only one division versus the max two?

4) What happens to the NorCal auto bids? All SIX Open teams get auto bids while D1, D2, and D3 only get 2 while the other divisions (D4-6) get 4 bids. Do all the Norcal bids remain the same? Any discussion on awarding the auto bids differently?

1. You are correct with the seedings... Look at it like this. Division 1 is basically the top 16 ranked teams from Divisions 1-3. Division 2 is the next 16 teams, but with Division 4 teams now added to the mix, thus a top-10 ranked D4 team is in D2 and not D1. It gets really interesting and confusing when you get to division 3, because now you are taking teams from divisions 1-5, but the bottom of the division will be qualifying teams from division 1 that can't drop any farther. Thus if you have a team ranked #85 (I just made that up) in Maxpreps that is a division 1 team, they would be at the bottom of D3 over teams from other divisions that are ranked higher.

2. Guru is correct. The divisions are set completely by Maxpreps rankings, but once they have the 16 teams in a single division, they can move them up and down based on the previous NCS criteria (Strength of schedule, head to head, common opponents, etc...).

3. Teams have ZERO say.

4. NCS gets 25 state bids. Here is what is copy and pasted from the playoff guide on the NCS website- The NCS is currently allotted 25 entries, including any teams selected to the Open Division and Division 6. NCS championship division teams will be the NCS representatives to the Northern California, CIF Championships. All six (6)teams competing in the NCS Open Division, the final two (2) teams competing in NCS Divisions 1-5, plus the winner of the 3rd-place game in NCS Divisions 1-5 will advance to the regional tournament. The final four (4) teams in Division 6 will advance to the regional tournament as well. (Board of Managers 10/4/24)

Hope that was helpful.

 

[ClayK]

From Campo coach Doug Cardoni: Allow teams to move up two divisions, but only down one.

I like that because right now, D3 is in the worst possible spot, but only letting D1 schools drop to D2 would make that a little more fair.

And I still wonder how they will distribute byes. If there are six byes, it would seem each bracket should be 15 so all top seeds get a bye.

 

[bb-hoops]

As well as, cut the number of teams that qualify per-division to 8, currently 16 per division qualify. The the total number of schools who qualify represents over 65% of all NCS schools. Why try so hard to build equity in post season brackets, with way to many teams and rules. The process seems like it can be simpler and more transparent.
First; cut the number of teams who qualify to 8.
Second: Open - 6 teams, D1 through D6 - 8 teams per division
Third; Top 6 teams - Open , take 1 through 48 and seed top to bottom (use MaxPreps rankings to start and adjust where it makes sense) break each division at 8, 16, 24, 32, 40, 48.