WCAL 2014 - Returning Impact Players for 2015

[PAL95]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week #3 - Serra vs SF on Prep2Prep today at 1:00

Just watched the SI game and after further evaluations I would say Mitty's strength is in the secondary. They struggle against big backs, but smaller faster ones can be contained which is why they beat the Bells next week. Mitty's offense is non existent, but had two big plays to score points, but other than those two it was hard to watch. If Mitty has a QB that can throw the ball they are undefeated right now and would be tough to stop. Too many obvious wide open receivers not getting the ball. SI caught a break earlier as the Mitty defender clearly stripped the ball from the SI receiver and they called him down. Huge blown call by officials. SI looked ok, but not as crisp as I have seen them. Hadgfelt had an off game and they just looked kind of sluggish out there. Despite sluggishness they were in control of this game, but those two big plays were killers.

 

[PAL95]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week #3 - Serra vs SF on Prep2Prep today at 1:00

On another note I hear Kirk Johnson is hurt again and its the ankle. Anyone know how serious it is?

 

[HSS75]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week #3 - Serra vs SF on Prep2Prep today at 1:00

"surprised they did not use RB Hurtado more?"

He was hurt before the game. I think he came in for a couple of plays but it wasn't working out. He was the starting DE as well. It was a defensive battle. SF did very well stopping the run against Serra for 3 qtrs but SF defense was in the field way too long and by the end of the 3rd qtr, SF lost half their defense.

SF lost starter/captain K/Safety Quin in the 1st Qtr with what looks like a knee injury. Backup QB Barber did a very good job subbing in for Quinn and even made a great play intercepting one of Bishops pass.

SF also lost starter/captain ILB Carbonel in the middle of the 3rd. That was a big blow. It was his 1st game back since the 1st game of the season when he went out with a knee injury. It's a shame that he re-injured it. It's a big game so he probably wanted to come back early.

Starting DBs Cassidy and Rassmusen did not return in the second half with unknown ailments.

Hard running starter RB Canty who also doubles as a DB is out for a few weeks with broken collar bone.

Starter WR/P Trill Hebert was out most of the second half. Looks like he was limping and didn't come in until very late in the game.

So when Serra scored the 14 points in the 4th, SF had to rely on the reserves which I think they really did a good job. I think Serra lost a few players as well. Very very physical game.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

With the exception of Hurtado and Canty, this is the first time ALL SF's projected pre-season defensive starters were on the field at the start of the game. I could tell they were talking more on defense which is due to senior leadership, especially near the line. Serra's vaunted Double Wing offense was non existent.

With the type of injuries they have, I don't expect Canty, Carbonel, and Quinn to come back this week. But the reserves have stepped up. With VC this week and even without Kirk (ankle injury?), SF will have their hands full. The offense needs to do their part and put up some points

This post was edited on 10/20 9:25 AM by HSS75

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week #3 - Serra vs SF on Prep2Prep today at 1:00


The Serra - SF game was definitely a defensive battle and SF came up big vs Serra's run game limiting the Padres to 46 yards offense and one first down in the first 1/2. Serra did start to move the ball better in the 2nd 1/2 and had a number of lengthy drives, of which 2 resulted in the 2 TD's, both in the 4th quarter. Possibly new QB Hunter Bishop settled down in the 2nd 1/2 as he made several clutch throws including the 43 yarder which got the Padres inside the Lancer 5. The stats show the Lancers ran 54 plays for 144 total yards offense or an average of 2.7 yards per play. Serra's rushing game totaled 77 yards for a 2.3 yard per carry - though Serra had a 50+ yard TD by Leki Nunn called back on a called "Facemask" penalty by the offense. Serra gained another 163 yards passing as Bishop was 14 of 22 incl. a 2-point conversion pass. Total rushing/passing offense was Serra 240 to SF 144.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week #4 of WCAL League Play - Upcoming Games

WCAL 2014 - Week #4 of WCAL League Play - Upcoming Games:

Friday 10/24 - 7:00 PM:
Bells 5-1 overall & 2-1 WCAL at Mitty 7:00 4-2 overall & 2-1 WCAL
Friday 10/24 - 7:30
Valley Christian 4-2 overall & 2-1 WCAL at St. Francis 4-2 overall & 2-1 WCAL
Saturday 10/25 - 1:00 PM
Riordan 1-5 overall & 1-2 WCAL at Serra 4-2 & 3-0 WCAL
Saturday 10/25 - 1:00 PM
SHC 3-3 overall & 0-3 WCAL at St. Ignatius 3-3 overall & 0-3 WCAL

CCS Rankings of WCAL Teams & Power Ratings:
1 - Serra - 48.5
3 - VC - 39.6
4 - Bells - 39.3
7 - SF - 35.8
8 - Mitty - 35.5
10 - SI - 33.9
18 - SHC - 18.2
21 - Riordan - 15.1

WCAL Game Averages - Offense Points Scored Per Game:
1 - VC - 28.3
2 - Bells - 27.6
3 - Serra - 23.3
4 - Mitty - 21.3
5 - SI - 20.6
6 - SHC - 16.0
7 - Riordan 14.6
8 - SF - 14.0

WCAL Game Averages - Defense - Points Allowed Per Game:
1 - Serra - 10.4
2 - VC - 16.0
3 - SF - 17.0
4 - Mitty - 18.6
5 - Riordan 21.6
6 - SI - 26.6
7 - SHC - 27.3
8 - Bells - 28.0

For Offense & Defense ratings by average VC, Serra & Mitty are the only 3 teams in both categories in the top 5 and at this point in league play are the best 3 teams in the WCAL.
Surprisingly the Bells score a lot of points, but also give up a lot on defense with 14 points last week against SHC being the lowest amount the Bells have allowed this season.
Mitty like SF has played tough defense, but is having trouble putting up points against its better opponents. Mitty in 4 games this season has scored 17,15,13 & 13 points with its highest WCAL scoring game of 33 points coming against one of the weakest defenses in SHC. SF like Mitty is very tough on defense, but having trouble putting points on the board as well & 3 times has scored 15 points or less this season. SF's offense struggled vs Serra scoring 0 points although Serra's D held the league leading VC offense previously to 10 points. SI has had a difficult time having their offense & defense play good games at the same time with 5 of its 6 games having margins of only 3 points - winning 3 & losing 2 games by 3 points each to Bells & Mitty. Riordan & SHC are close in offense, but Riordan clearly has the bigger advantage on defense which showed in its win over the Irish. SHC's best game to date was the loss to Mitty by 33-27 while Riordan's best game was also in a losing cause to SF 25-23.

Next Up: How the teams will match up this coming week and how the above averages should play out against the opposing team.
Mitty shows to have the overall advantage against the Bells and should be a shoot-out with Mitty having one of its higher scoring games. VC as well shows a clear advantage on the offensive side of the ball vs SF although SF played a tremendous game defensively vs Serra - although Serra does not posses the 4 RB's that VC has in its arsenal. Riordan as it turns out has a very respectable defense, but can only keep them on the field for so long against Serra before the D wears down. Riordan will have to find some way to manage ball control against Serra & hope for good field position possibly with some trick plays or simply taking some risks on offense & defense. SHC will need its A-game vs St. Ignatius and SI is due for a win after 2 close losses in WCAL and a solid game vs Serra as well.




This post was edited on 10/21 9:05 PM by Rmbr26

 

[PAL95]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week #4 of WCAL League Play - Upcoming Games

St Francis 20 VC 17
Another huge matchup in the WCAL with playoff implications. VC is coming in after a thrashing of Riordan and St.Francis comes limping in with a hard hitting game vs Serra. First and foremost the question is Kirk Johnson healthy and will he play? I heard the ankle is pretty sore, but have no other info. St. Francis lost a couple of key players and will be counting on second stringers to step it up. They did a very good job vs Serra considering the circumstances. If St Francis can ground and pound and eat up clock to keep VCs explosive offense off the field, they should be ok. I know they dont have the firepower to score, so I think its a low scoring affair. Lancers in an upset.

SI 31 SHC 21
Bruce Mahoney matchup in the city and SI is hungry after losing three straight and will get in the win column this week against a SHC team that had a good preaseason and a solid performance in the opener vs Mitty, but thats where it all stops. Teams are really keying on Sheppard now and scoring points have been tough. I think with a vet qb in White they should go to the air more often. They have tall receivers that can catch. SI will carve the SHC secondary up and get the W.

Serra 35 Riordan 7
Serra should have no problem now that they have a legit run and pass game. Defense has been great and its hard to see Riordan scoring at all. I give them a td late in the fourth quarter. I dont know the update on Sanders, but if he is out it would make it that much more difficult. I think the defense will hold Serra in the first half similar to the VC game, but the second will be a different story as the defense will be tired and thats when Serra's offense will roll. Message to whomever at Riordan, throw the ball!!!

Mitty 28 Bells 10
I have stated earlier that I thought the Bells were overated and I am sticking to it. They are well coached and have been solid, but not top 10 in norcal solid. They have yet to notch a big win except their first game of the season. They played VC and we all know what happened. Im not saying they are a bad team, but just rankings wise. Mitty on the other hand has faced pretty good competition, but still dont have an identity on offense. I believe Hudson should be back, but even when he was there it was a non factor on offense. They have plenty of playmakers on offense, but cant seem to get going. One stat that sticks out is only 14 completions on the whole season! Granted most of those have been for big plays. The bells will have to watch out for the occasional long pass. Mitty has won games with their defense and I expect them to do it here at their only true home game of the season. They will also be playing on their new turf for the first time.

 

[HSS75]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week #4 of WCAL League Play - Upcoming Games

PAL95 posted on 10/22/2014...
St Francis 20 VC 17
Another huge matchup in the WCAL with playoff implications. VC is coming in after a thrashing of Riordan and St.Francis comes limping in with a hard hitting game vs Serra. First and foremost the question is Kirk Johnson healthy and will he play? I heard the ankle is pretty sore, but have no other info. St. Francis lost a couple of key players and will be counting on second stringers to step it up. They did a very good job vs Serra considering the circumstances. If St Francis can ground and pound and eat up clock to keep VCs explosive offense off the field, they should be ok. I know they dont have the firepower to score, so I think its a low scoring affair. Lancers in an upset.

SI 31 SHC 21
Bruce Mahoney matchup in the city and SI is hungry after losing three straight and will get in the win column this week against a SHC team that had a good preaseason and a solid performance in the opener vs Mitty, but thats where it all stops. Teams are really keying on Sheppard now and scoring points have been tough. I think with a vet qb in White they should go to the air more often. They have tall receivers that can catch. SI will carve the SHC secondary up and get the W.

Serra 35 Riordan 7
Serra should have no problem now that they have a legit run and pass game. Defense has been great and its hard to see Riordan scoring at all. I give them a td late in the fourth quarter. I dont know the update on Sanders, but if he is out it would make it that much more difficult. I think the defense will hold Serra in the first half similar to the VC game, but the second will be a different story as the defense will be tired and thats when Serra's offense will roll. Message to whomever at Riordan, throw the ball!!!

Mitty 28 Bells 10
I have stated earlier that I thought the Bells were overated and I am sticking to it. They are well coached and have been solid, but not top 10 in norcal solid. They have yet to notch a big win except their first game of the season. They played VC and we all know what happened. Im not saying they are a bad team, but just rankings wise. Mitty on the other hand has faced pretty good competition, but still dont have an identity on offense. I believe Hudson should be back, but even when he was there it was a non factor on offense. They have plenty of playmakers on offense, but cant seem to get going. One stat that sticks out is only 14 completions on the whole season! Granted most of those have been for big plays. The bells will have to watch out for the occasional long pass. Mitty has won games with their defense and I expect them to do it here at their only true home game of the season. They will also be playing on their new turf for the first time.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________

St Francis 17 Valley Christian 14
If SF defense holds up, they should squeak by with a win. SF should be able to score "some" points on VC but not much. SF defense did a very good job holding off Serra the majority of the game last week and Serra's scoring started off on big plays so they need to keep VC's running backs in check and shutdown CJ as he is their main target on pass plays. BUT it all depends if KJ is healthy. If he is 80-100%, VC will win. If he doesn't play, SF has a chance.

St Ignatius 28 - Sacred Heart Cathedral 20
Another big city rivalry and emotions run high. SI is a complete team and should be able to run and pass on SHC. They are methodical going up and down the field mixing it up with pass and run plays. SHC has Sheppard and needs a big game and he may come up big in this game but SHC will need to open him up with some pass plays and keep SI thinking. SI will come up with a win.

Serra 42 - Riordan 7
Not much to talk about here other than if Riordan can score more points than SF did last week. I think they should give the green light for the Riordan QB to run. He is a great scrambler and a big QB. Tough to stop if he steaming down the field. He did a great job doing that against SF. Serra will have to shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers (their achilles heel) for Riordan to have a chance and for Riordan to capitalize on those turnovers with TDs.

Archbishop Mitty 28 - Bellarmine 17
I think this is the game of the week. This will determine which team is legit. Mitty has been inconsistent with their offense and against SHC surprised that they gave up 300 yards to a single back. Not their characteristic compared to the past. Its past midseason and Mitty seems to have clamped down on defense so it will spell trouble for the Bells. Mitty should score points because Bells defense is very porous. The Bells rely on their offense to score in bunches to win games.
This post was edited on 10/23 8:33 AM by HSS75

 

[Irish_Cheers]

Re: SHC - SI Game Online


SHC game vs. S.I. will be on High School Cube. (Oh, and Irish D is better than riorDAN.)

High School Cube

 

[Rmbr26]

WCAL Week 4 Game Predictions

WCAL Week 4 Game Predictions:

To start with here are the Freeman projected scores for the upcoming games:

VC 22 - 17 over SF [+5]
Mitty 26 - 21 over Bells [+5]
Serra 34-0 over Riordan [+34]
SI 35-14 over SHC [+21]

So we know the Freeman rankings are accurate about 70-75% most of the time and also that the WCAL can be highly unpredictable at times. So far this season we have not seen any big upsets or unforeseen blow-outs except for possibly the VC 42-17 pasting of the Bells 2 weeks ago. The VC-SF game seems to be a toss-up by some of the fans as some of the more knowledgeable fans are picking SF in what looks to be a close game either way. The other highly competitive game should be Mitty-Bells and both of the games are projected to have a 5-point margin [which of course could go either way].

Lets take a look at the head to head comparison's going into these match ups starting with the VC -SF match-up:

* CCS ranking: VC #3 and SF #7.
* Power Ratings: VC = 39.6 and SF = 35.8
* Avg Offense over 3 WCAL games: VC = 28.3 and SF = 14.0
* Avg Defense over 3 WCAL games: VC = 16.0 and SF = 17.0

Game Analysis: The power ratings have the 2 teams nearly equal at this stage of the season. The 3 WCAL games played are nearly equal by both 2 teams as well. Clearly VC has the more explosive offense and possibly SF has the better defense based upon the Serra game - SF held Serra scoreless into the 4th quarter, while Serra put up 24 against VC. VC currently has a better rushing attack than Serra & can also pass with Colin Johnson being a big, fast target. Even with Kirk Johnson possibly not at full strength VC still has 3 excellent RB's they can call on to pick up the slack. Having seen the Serra-SF game it appeared SF was not at full strength due to numerous injuries and could be a factor in this game. This should be a low scoring game unless VC breaks the game open with several early scores. Can SF possibly hold VC & outscore them? I think we're going to see 2 teams play another tough low scoring game decided by possibly 1 score.
Prediction: VC 21-14
____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Mitty vs Bells:

*CCS Ranking: Bells #4 and Mitty #8
* Power Ratings: Bells = 39.3 and Mitty = 35.5
Avg Offense over 3 WCAL games: Bells = 27.6 and Mitty = 21.3
Avg Defense over 3 WCAL games: Bells = 28.0 and Mitty = 18.6

Game Analysis: The Bells appear to be favored in most statistical categories except defense going into this game. Both teams share a common opponent in St. Ignatius whom the Bells beat 31-28 and Mitty beat 17-14 last week, so a 3 point margin in both games. The Bells clearly have the better big play offense while Mitty has shown to have the stingier defense. On offense Mitty relies heavily on the run and only attempted 4 passes last week vs SI. The Bells rely on the run as their primary weapon, but have shown they can also pass as well. VC was able to shut down the Bells and overwhelm them with their ground game and Mitty will have to do the same if they are to win. Mitty averages over 200 yards rushing per game while Bells average over 300 per game. I like MItty in this game as well if they can contain the Bells run game and effectively put pressure on the Bells 2 QB's.
Prediction: Mitty 23-20
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

Serra vs Riordan:

*CCS Ranking: Serra #1 and Riordan #21
* Power Ratings: Serra = 48.5 and Riordan = 15.1
* Avg Offense over 3 WCAL games: Serra = 23.3 and Riordan = 14.6
* Avg Defense over 3 WCAL games: Serra = 10.4 and Riordan = 21.6

Game Analysis: A major challenge await the Crusader's on Serra's home turf. Riordan comes in off a sobering 33-7 loss to VC while Serra comes off a hard fought 14-2 victory over SF. Riordan has a good defense, but like several other WCAL teams is lacking in putting up points. Serra had its 2nd lowest point outpoint of the season last week at 14 points with the only lower scoring being the 13 against DLS - so Serra will come in eager to get their offense back in high gear. As I've stated prior Riordan must find a way to pass or run option plays to have any chance at keeping this contest close - a tall order against Serra's defense.
Serra seems to be able to overcome their high turn-over ratio with special teams and big plays on offense. How will Serra's Hunter Bishop perform in his 3rd game and will Riordan be able to run against Serra? Point spread is 34 which is 16 points closer than last year's Serra-Riordan game of 56-6. This is a better Riordan team than last year, but Serra is also very good again in 2014.
Prediction: Serra 31-13
____________________________________________________________________________________________________

St. Ignatius vs SHC:

*CCS Ranking: SI #10 and SHC #18
* Power Ratings: SI = 33.9 and SHC = 18.2
* Avg Offense over 3 WCAL games: SI = 20.6 and SHC = 16.0
* Avg Defense over 3 WCAL games: SI = 26.6 and SHC = 27.3

Game Analysis: Both teams coming in badly needing a WCAL win. SI opened the season with 3 impressive wins to start 3-0 and having lost their first 3 league games, 2 games by 3-points each to Bells & Mitty. SHC also started 3-0 and shares the same 3-3 record now as SI. SHC's best game was a 33-27 loss to Mitty followed by a disappointing loss to Riordan and a large margin loss last week to the Bells 35-14. SI holds a slight advantage in just about all categories over SHC. If SHC is going to have a shot at even one WCAL win this season perhaps this is the game to get the Irish players motivated and try for the big upset of their cross town rival St. Ignatius. Both teams can pass, but more important both teams will need to establish the run early.
Prediction: SI 28-14

 

[jordan24]

Re: WCAL Week 4 Game Predictions

VC 35 - SF 14: Based on seeing both VC and SF (albeit against Riordan), VC appears an overwhelming favorite. As I stated previously, the Sleeping Giant may finally be awake as VC's defense completely shut down the Riordan offense and VC's rotation of RBs K. Johnson, T McCloud, Jones and Walker wore down the Crusader defense. Throw in the passing of Machado to C. Johnson through the air if SF starts stacking the box and I see a VC win going away.

Bells 28 - Mitty 14: Bells appear to be a very disciplined team with a very effective running game. Bells play mistake-free ball and will be the key differeniator over the Monarchs.

SI 42 - SHC 14: SI dominates from the start as they are desperate for their first WCAL win vs their Bruce-Mahoney Trophy foe in the SHC Irish. Irish roster running thin and the fact many of their best players are forced to play both ways will spell doom in the second half.

Serra 42 - Riordan 7: Unfortunately, for the Crusaders, this looks to be a blowout similar to last Sunday's Broncos-Niners game. Gen Lee's offense remains very questionable and will force the Riordan defense to be on the field for too many plays. Only way I see Riordan even sniffing a competitive game is if Gen Lee steps out of his box and mixes up his personnel. I'd like to see some of his defensive players on offense for at least half of the plays (I.e. C. McAfee, Isaiah Davis, Jamarian Caston) to replace the speedy and shifty Raymone Sanders who, by all accounts, is out this week and possibly beyond. RB Jason Greene also appears to be out for at least another week, too. Luavasa struggled mightily last week, but if he has more weapons and looks to throw downfield, mix in some bubble screens/fly sweep/ read option/play-action, this could be a game. Verba-Hamilton and Cochrane will need to step up in the receiving dept. and also show some breakaway capability on special teams, though most teams are now just squib kicking to avoid any type of return.


Originally posted by Rmbr26:
WCAL Week 4 Game Predictions:


Prediction: VC 21-14
Prediction: Mitty 23-20
Prediction: Serra 31-13
Prediction: SI 28-14

 

[FUBO]

Re: WCAL Week 4 Game Predictions

VC 42 - SF 10, Bells 21 - Mitty 14, SI 35 - SHC 14, Serra 49 - Riordan 0 *** Riordan had about 100 yards total offense going into their last drive against the VC 2nd/3rd team defense and they are lucky the refs pulled BS home cooking penalties against VC.

This post was edited on 10/23 7:58 PM by FUBO

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL Week 4 Game Predictions

Originally posted by FUBO:
VC 42 - SF 10, Bells 21 - Mitty 14, SI 35 - SHC 14, Serra 49 - Riordan 0 *** Riordan had about 100 yards total offense going into their last drive against the VC 2nd/3rd team defense and they are lucky the refs pulled BS home cooking penalties against VC.





Based upon the other posters predictions mine are usually a bit more conservative to allow for the "unexpected". So far to date there have been some unexpected results including:

* Mitty barely escaping with a 33-27 win over SHC which lost to Riordan the following week [many fans now expect Mitty to take down the Bells].

* Riordan taking St. Francis down to the wire in a game which SF needed a late long field goal to beat the Crusader's 25-23.

* Riordan again taking down cross town rival SHC 14-7 though rankings, stats and game records all favored SHC.

* The Bells at 5-0 and ranked only behind Serra in multiple rankings lose to VC by 25-points [42-17].

* Though eventually losing 14-2 St. Francis holds Serra to 0-points going into the 4th quarter of last weeks game.

So couple questions for the fans & some of their predictions:

A] With fans picking Mitty over the Bells and the Bells one-sided loss to VC - are the Bells over-rated OR has VC suddenly found the right combination & is clicking on all cylinders? AND is Mitty capable of holding the Bells below their game average of 27-points & outscore them?

B] Fans seem to be split on the VC-SF game with a close game and SF pulling it out OR possibly VC pulling away. SF is banged up right now, but hard to imagine VC will run away with it after the way SF played Serra. I tend to believe this will be a 1-score game with the winner scoring under 24-points.

C] The smallest point spread by fans is SI by 8-points over SHC who was able to score 27 against Mitty. Could the Irish possibly put it altogether and shock SI in this game?

D] The vote has been taken and the result is overwhelming: Riordan stands no chance vs Serra on the Padres home turf and will be rolled by no less than 4, 5 , 6 TD's OR more. However in a parallel universe Riordan almost upset SF losing by 2 AND SF led Serra by 2 for 3 quarters, so is the impossible possible?? Could Riordan's Defense stifle the Padres hot & cold offense and miraculously convert 3,4 or 5 Padre turn-overs into TD's? Could Coach Lee have designed some triple reverses, flea -flickers and hook & ladder plays to baffle the Padres defense?? Anything is possible in the football universe and now for the final question:

In a Vegas style bet with the odds being 100-1 Serra over Riordan how much would you bet on Riordan figuring a $10 bet could win you $1,000?

Also knowing you HAVE to place a bet - you would therefore have to pony up $1,000 to win the same $10 betting on Serra
[sometimes the long adds are the most intriguing].

 

[WCAL75]

Re: WCAL Week 4 Game Predictions

If the Lancers were going into this VC game with the same starters they had in the Serra game I could see this game as being a close one score game going either way. With the number of players that SF has out injured right now along with the ones who will play but are stilled banged up I can see a potential one sided game with VC running away from SF. But you never know in the WCAL.



This post was edited on 10/24 9:58 AM by WCAL75

 

[colhenrylives]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts

Riordan's defense may be OK vs. Serra. For awhile. But big plays define the Padres. Their stable of terrific athletes has a way of rising up and breaking huge gains, or even TDs, at any given moment. That includes the kick return game. And interceptions and fumble recoveries for scores. Again, the Riordan defense may perform well for much of the game. But the Serra scoring will probably come fast and in shocking fashion. And in a variety of ways. On the plus side for the Crusaders, they are clearly better this year vs. the last several. If they played in the PAL Bay Division, they would be a serious problem. But the WCAL is simply a different animal. Too many teams with too much quality depth, excellent coaching and superb preparation on a weekly basis.

 

[jordan24]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts

Success in football, at any level, is based on good coaching, talent and depth. You need ALL three to win at the end. A successful football season is basically a war of attrition/survival of the fittest. This becomes more evident playing in the WCAL.

Originally posted by colhenrylives:
Riordan's defense may be OK vs. Serra. For awhile. But big plays define the Padres. Their stable of terrific athletes has a way of rising up and breaking huge gains, or even TDs, at any given moment. That includes the kick return game. And interceptions and fumble recoveries for scores. Again, the Riordan defense may perform well for much of the game. But the Serra scoring will probably come fast and in shocking fashion. And in a variety of ways. On the plus side for the Crusaders, they are clearly better this year vs. the last several. If they played in the PAL Bay Division, they would be a serious problem. But the WCAL is simply a different animal. Too many teams with too much quality depth, excellent coaching and superb preparation on a weekly basis.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts


Game Updates:

Bells 14 - 9 over Mitty 9in 4th and some very questionable play calling on the Mitty side of the ball offensively IMO.

VC 7-0 over SF in the 3rd & another defensive battle.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts


Looking like a 21-9 win by Bells over Mitty in which a fairly evenly played game & some questionable decisions on key plays mostly by Monarchs. Coach Janda as in past was masterful in his coaching against the Monarchs & appeared to out-guess the Monarchs coaching at every turn IMO. Late in 4th with Monarchs trailing by 1 score and after a penalty facing 1rst & 20 with manageable time left - Monarchs go for all or nothing passing 3 times in a row and coming up with nothing. So many questionable play calls on Mitty side & yet so few questionable high risk calls on Bells side - Credit win to Bells coach Janda on this one for guessing right every time under the circumstances. The Bells are dangerous once again in WCAL.

 

[Sir Lancealot]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts

Thank goodness VC has the worst FG kicker in the league or this game would be over. He has missed two chip shots. VC up 7-0 with 6 minutes to go.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts

SF ties game up 7-7 late in 4th vs VC against all odds - watching it the Lancers were unbelieveably lucky to this point as VC should have in all honesty been ahead by 2 scores minimum - tho again SF always has had luck on its side

 

[PAL95]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts

Rmbr you are right. Play calling has been a huge issue on offense this whole year for Mitty. They should have just ran a 5 receiver set the whole 2nd half. Their run plays are so predictable that I cant believe they kept doing it all game. They spread it out late in the fourth and two completions to Monroe, one for a td but then it was way too late. Monroe was bottled up thw whole night and should be used as a wideout more often as shown on a nice td catch, than running him up the middle for minimal gains. The Bells defense looked solid, but I think it had more to do with the Mitty offense. Guaddaro is a heckuva player on offense and defense!

This post was edited on 10/24 10:12 PM by PAL95

 

[Sir Lancealot]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts

VC wins 21-14 in OT

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts


Week 4 WCAL Game Results from last night & today:

Bells 20 - Mitty 17
VC 21 - SF 14 in double O/T
Serra 36 - Riordan 10
SI 21 - SHC 7

Here were the projected outcomes from Freeman Rankings:
Mitty 26 - 21 over Bells [+5]
VC 22 - 17 over SF [+5]
Serra 34-0 over Riordan [+34]
SI 35-14 over SHC [+21]

Rmbr26 Predictions:
Mitty 23- 20 over Bells - had Mitty by 3 & Bells win by 3, so off 6 points.
VC 21-14 over SF - had score correct
Serra 31-13 over Riordan - had Serra by 18 & won by 26, so off 8 points.
SI 28-14 over SHC - had SI by 7 & win by 14, so off 7 points.

Remarks: Mitty & Bells defense played the game evenly, but Bells big play offense had just enough big plays to win.
SF's D did all it could to keep them in this game along with VC mistakes, but ultimately VC was able to do enough on offense to pull out the win. Some fans had Serra vs Riordan game as a complete blow-out & Riordan led 3-0 at the 1/2, but a number of turnovers and a deeper Serra team took over in the 2nd 1/2 to pull away. SI did enough on offense and defense to pull out the win over SHC in a game where most fans expected more offense from both teams [curious to see the passing stats of Hagfeldt & White].
This post was edited on 10/25 9:32 PM by Rmbr26

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts

Overview of Teams mid-point of WCAL League Play:

WCAL Standings:
1- Serra 4-0 - [overall 5-2]
2- VC 3-1 [5-2]
2 - Bells 3-1 [6-1]
3- SF 2-2 [4-3]
3- Mitty 2-2 [4-3]
4- SI 1-3 [4-3]
4- Riordan 1-3 [1-6]
5- SHC 0-4 [3-4]

CCS Standings/Rating:
1- Serra
3- VC
4- Bells
7- SF
8- Mitty
9- SI
17- SHC
21- Riordan

WCAL Team Offense through 4 games:
Serra & VC = 26.5 per game
Bells = 25.7
SI = 20.5
Mitty = 20.2
SF = 14.0
SHC = 13.7
RR = 13.5

WCAL Team Defense through 4 games:
Serra = 10.5 points allowed per game
VC = 15.5
SF = 18
Mitty = 19
SI = 21.7
Bells & RR = 25.2
SHC = 25.5

Games Upcoming Friday Nite:
Serra @ Mitty
Riordan @ Bells
SI @ VC
SF @ SHC [Westmoor HS 3:00 p.m.]

 

[ds1968]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts

Rmbr26: Great job on all your analysis. I really enjoy reading your detailed points for each game.

Since we are a little over midway of wcal league games and heading into the final stretch, here are my thoughts. Serra is obviously the team to beat. The amount points they score along with how their defense hold teams in check is really good. I feel that Valley Christian, Bellarmine, Mitty, and St Francis are pretty even with each other while giving Valley Christian the comfortable edge over the other 3 teams. Bellarmine played even with Mitty pretty much. They just made one more good play. But the Bells got crushed by Valley. However, St Francis played well enough with Valley to force an overtime game, with Valley prevailing. And Mitty played close with St. Francis. For the San Fran teams, i feel there is a marked improvement in their play at the start of league compared to last year, and they are still dangerous. SI, R, and SHC all played tough. The next step for them is just getting over the hump of winning some peninsula/southbay wcal teams. But they may be tiring out as league progesses these next 3 weeks. We shall see how it pans out for seeding of ccs play.

This post was edited on 10/27 6:46 PM by ds1968

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts


Thank you ds1968 for your compliment as well as your very good post - I don't think there is much there that fans can disagree with.

I'd replied to several posts on the Serra-Riordan thread & thought I'd share the response with fans of this thread merely to get some other opinions on Serra's change in QB's recently. The replacement QB Hunter Bishop a transfer from St. Francis has been a bit shaky in his first 3 varsity games and may merely need time to adjust to the level of play. On the other hand Serra's QB to start the season in Leki Nunn underwent a "test by fire" in playing his first game against De La Salle and faired well compared to most other QB's DLS has faced, along with his 2nd game vs Notre Dame - Sherman Oaks and then had an outstanding game in Serra's win over Valley Christian. SO is there any kind of QB controversy brewing on the Padres campus or is coach Walsh resolute in his decision that the transfer Hunter Bishop is the better natural QB at the position and the go-to guy? Coach Walsh & the other coaches at Serra do a good job and know more than us on the sidelines, but here is the post from the other thread showing strictly the stat-facts between the 2 players & you the fan judge for yourself as to if one is clearly better than the other.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________

Stats to date for the 2 Serra QB's:

Hunter Bishop 30 of 57 passes for 285 yards, 1-TD & 6 INT's with QB rating of 33.0%

Leki Nunn 52 of 103 passes for 528 yards, 3 TD's & 9 INT's with QB rating of 38.0%

Note: Leki Nunn as a first season QB played De La Salle, Notre Dame - Sherman Oaks & Valley Christian [also SSF] so overall faced tougher competition than Bishop.

My take is that Leki Nunn is an outstanding athlete at whatever position you put him at whether it is QB scrambling, RB or punt returner or kick returner - he can do it all. Hunter Bishop is a HS QB and supposedly a good one who coach Walsh said could pass & run. To date Bishop is nowhere the runner Leki Nunn is and has not shown he is a better passer. To be fair to Bishop he has only played 3 games, but then again Leki Nunn had to face De La Salle in his first game - as a soph. As some old coaches will tell you - you give the ball to the best athlete on your team - however coach Walsh is not that old [joke!]. Hopefully coach Walsh recognizes how special this young athlete is and does not designate him to a secondary position where he might not help his team as much. Not being critical of Serra's coaching, but would you move Madison Bumgarner [aka "Mad Bum"] to right field in order to start Hunter Strickland based on his 100 MPH fastball? Food 4 thought.. do you switch to the player who is "supposed" to be better?

Curious what others think.

This post was edited on 10/27 10:07 PM by Rmbr26

 

[HSS75]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts

"SF ties game up 7-7 late in 4th vs VC against all odds - watching it the Lancers were unbelieveably lucky to this point as VC should have in all honesty been ahead by 2 scores minimum - tho again SF always has had luck on its side"

If luck was in SF's side they would've won these last two games against VC and Serra. Not sure what you saw in the VC game that constitute luck for SF. SF committed two turnovers deep in SF territory but VC came away with zero points. One missed field goal was a 37 yarder which is 50/50 at best for high school and the other was a 25 yarder(?) which missed a little to the right but was on the right hashmark which is a little more difficult than the ball at center. VC's only long run to the end zone for a TD was called back on a holding penalty. That's why he ended up in the end zone. SF's lone TD was on a 4th down throw but they ran the same play previous and I thought it should've been pass interference which would have put the ball on the one.

There were times early in the game where all you saw were yellow flags thrown and there were times where you expected yellow flags and they weren't thrown. It's all about execution. Valley is a run heavy team. They like to run and put their will against the opponents defense. At times they were able to run the ball but SF's defense clamps down and force VC to punt. So with a few minutes left before the half, VC was "lucky" to score on two pass plays for 90 yards. But I don't think it was luck at all, it's all about execution on SF defense. Machado had two perfect throws to Johnson while SF defenders just blew it. Everyone in the stands knew they were going to throw to CJ.

My thoughts, If VC didn't have a slew of reliable running backs, they can be a successful passing team. Johnson is the real deal and Machado is vastly improved. He is not a running QB but if he has time to throw he is accurate. VC won through passing. Go figure As for St Francis, I saw a glimpse of what they could do when they mix things up. They were able to get the ball to their receivers. They also used a no huddle spread and marched down the field with ease and scored a TD. The problem is that it is outside of Calcagno's comfort level. I can count how many plays in his playbook on one hand. SF defense is working very hard and only gave up 7 points to a powerful VC team in regulation. It's a shame offense could only muster 7 points in regulation.

Week 5 Predictions:

Saint Francis 17 - Sacred Heart Cathedral 7
St Francis' defense will shutdown JWS the entire game. SHC's last game against SI was like watching SF offense. It was hard to watch. They ran and ran and ran with no results. If SHC scores early and up by 2TDs, it will spell trouble for SF because their offense just can't score. It will be a low scoring game because of SF's stout defense and inept offense.

Archbishop Mitty 14 - Junipero Serra 28
Mittys achilles heal is giving up the big plays and unfortunately Serra is a big play team. BUT Serra is turnover proned and their QB is not as good. Everyone is saying he only played three games but he is consistent in those three game. He throws interceptions. Fortunately, Mitty has a really good pass defense and they may come up big. Score could be closer than my prediction. If Mitty can clamp down on the big plays. they can win.

Bellarmine 21 - Riordan 14
I'm impressed with the Crusaders defense. They just need to be stingy for the ENTIRE game and I think they can. They have athletes that can be aggressive against a smaller team. VC locked them down becuase of an aggressive defense and Riordan can do the same. Keep the score low and you have a fighting chance. If Riordan's fast/Shifty RB's are back, it'll be tough for the Bells to key on one. The key here is to play tight defense for 48 minutes.

Saint Ignatius 14 - Valley Christian 28
Really good matchup and I think it is the game of the week. St Ignatius played a tough pre-season and had to go murderers row in the first three league games against Bells, Serra, and Mitty before they had an easy game of it with SHC. SI played tough with the 3 losses so it'll be interesting to see what happens in this game. They will play at the top of the hill which is always tough for visiting opponents. VC can easily mix it up with pass plays since they were successful with it against SF. Great game.



This post was edited on 10/28 10:06 AM by HSS75

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 5 Upcoming Games, Serra vs Mitty

Games Upcoming Friday Nite:
Serra @ Mitty
Riordan @ Bells
SI @ VC
SF @ SHC [Westmoor HS 3:00 p.m.]

Freeman Game Projections:
Serra 26 - Mitty 10 [Serra +16]
Bells 35 - Riordan 14 [Bells +21]
VC 28 - SI 20 [VC +8]
SF 28 - SHC 10 [SF +18]

As I've stated previously the game projections hover around 70% accurate and get slightly more accurate each week towards the end of the season. This week there are some awfully big point spreads, especially in the Serra-Mitty game [I would have to take Mitty & 16 in this game]. To give you an idea here are the projections from last week along with the actual scores and the difference:

Projection: Mitty 26-Bells 21, Game Result: Bells win 20-17 [Projection picked wrong team & spread off by 8 points]

Projection: VC 22-SF 17, Game Result: VC 21-SF 14 Projection picked correct team & spread off by 2 points]

Projection: Serra 34-Riordan 0, Game Result: Serra 36-Riordan 10 [Projection picked correct team & spread off by 8 points]

Projection: SI 34-SHC 14, Game Result: SI 21-SHC 7 [Projection picked correct team & spread off by 7 points

Game #1 Break-Down: Serra vs Mitty = GAME OF THE WEEK

There are some similarities in these 2 teams stat-wise and in the rushing game Mitty has an edge by a large margin in game totals and the APC or average per carry by its RB's by committee. Mitty is the more of a grind it out team on offense relying on its run game including by its QB Foley and an occasional pass and has a solid defense as well. Mitty averages 90 yards per game passing and 213 yards per game rushing. The Monarchs big playmaker is of course Dakari Monroe who is a RB/WR and returns punts & kickoffs as well. Mitty throws long often when they do throw and average nearly 20 yards per pass completion. On the ground Monroe has 225 yards rushing while RB Bauerle has 288 yards & Luke Allen has 248 yards rushing - the QB Foley has another 156 yards rushing. Mitty attacks the opposing team using these 4 RB's and then throws in a pass here & there to keep the other teams defense off-balance. In the receiving dept Monroe has 130 yards in catches while the other 2 WR's Granbery & Manley have a combined 14 catches for 313 yards. Mitty has a good kicking game and the edge in FG distance with their kicker Bubic having kicked a 48 yarder this season. Advantage also to Mitty in punting with a 37 yard average to Serra's 32 yard average. In the kick return dept Serra has the clear edge with its big play returners averaging 6-8 yards more per return. Mitty's D has 12 QB sacks on the season compared to 23 sacks by Serra's Defense. Mitty's QB Foley is 27/65 passing for 540 yards, 4-TD's & 4 INT's.

For Serra the offense is averaging 116 yards passing and 166 yards rushing per game, so less overall per game than Mitty. Serra makes up that difference in its special teams on kick-off & punt returns. Serra has a lower average on both passes caught and rushing compared to Mitty. In rushing for the Padres RB Leki Nunn has 438 yards while Lataimua has 343 yards and Lavulo has 121 yards. In pass receptions for Serra WR McCoy has 22 catches for 281 yards, Monroe 15 catches for 151 yards and Uniacke 7 for 116 yards. Overall passing for the Padres Nunn & Bishop are 82/160 for 813 yards for a 51% completion ratio, 4-TD's and a whopping 15 INT's. It is amazing Serra has a winning record with the high number of turn-overs the team has averaged each game and to date Serra has been able to overcome this deficiency by 2 means: big plays on offense/special teams & solid defense.
As with other teams Mitty will need to exploit these mistakes to its advantage and try to keep the ball away from the Padres - which is easier said than done with Serra's defense. On Serra's side of the ball, Serra will need to contain Mitty's run game by committee and cannot allow the large average per carry Mitty's RB's are used to getting [ie: Mitty has some tough runners]. As with most other teams Serra will also have to contain Dakari Monroe throughout the game as Mitty uses him in a multitude of ways and cannot give up the big play such as Monroe's long TD run against Serra in last season's CCS Open Championship. As stated I see this game as much closer than the projected score.
This post was edited on 10/28 9:54 AM by Rmbr26

 

[Irish_Cheers]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 4 Predictions & Pre-game thoughts

Originally posted by HSS75:

Week 5 Predictions:

Saint Francis 17 - Sacred Heart Cathedral 7
St Francis' defense will shutdown JWS the entire game. SHC's last game against SI was like watching SF offense. It was hard to watch. They ran and ran and ran with no results. If SHC scores early and up by 2TDs, it will spell trouble for SF because their offense just can't score. It will be a low scoring game because of SF's stout defense and inept offense.





This post was edited on 10/28 10:06 AM by HSS75

Nothing throwing the ball wouldn't cure. (A healthy offensive line wouldn't hurt either).


This post was edited on 10/29 10:11 AM by Irish_Cheers

 

[PAL95]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 5 Upcoming Games, Serra vs Mitty

Rmbr, nice breakdown as usual. I have to say that Mitty will have a tough time dealing with Serra unless they spread it out and can move the ball. They have only scored over 20 points in two games this year and that was against Palo Alto and SHC. This tells you that the offensive struggle is real. 27/65 in seven games with 4tds and 4ints and they have still have been in one possesion games they lost is pretty mind boggling. If they got the offense just a little better Mitty could be a one loss team this year. Hudson has yet to return and this is hurting the run game as well as an easy target to pick up tough yards. He should be back this week which could help on the offensive side of the ball as well as the defense. I just don't see Mitty scoring more than 20 points because the numbers don't lie, but the question is can they hold Serra under 20? I think its not out the question as the defense has been solid. This game for Mitty means they could still get into the open ccs playoffs, so there is alot riding on it as well as revenge from last years two losses to Serra. They would love nothing better than to spoil Serra's undefeated run as Serra did to them last year. The QB at Serra will have to be improved from last week or it could spell doom for the Padres. If he has a solid performance and the run game is opened up, they win this game by 10 simply because Mitty doesn't put up points against good opponents!

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 5 Upcoming Games, Serra vs Mitty

PAL95 - your comments regarding Mitty's offense are accurate in that they are a run-first, run-second & run-third down team on most occasions, throwing only a few times per game - 27 of 65 in 7 games is 9 passes with 4 completions per game or 1 pass completion per quarter. With these types of passing stats its never going to be a high scoring offense unless Mitty's offensive line dominates the other defense. What's curious is that this is the Mitty plan on offense and has been all along by their offensive coordinator. Last season Mitty used the same type of attack averaging 9 passes per game and averaging 4 completions per game [sound familiar?]. For this season I mentioned Granberry & Manley have combined for 14 catches while Monroe has 7 which is 21 of the 27 completions with Hudson and several other WR's having 1 catch each. In comparison McCoy of Serra has 22 catches himself compared to 21 for Mitty's top 3 receivers.

 

[PAL95]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 5 Upcoming Games, Serra vs Mitty

Right, I just question the offense because Hudson and Monroe had multiple touchdown catches last year with Monroe being Receiver of the year in the WCAL and Hudson being one of the most sought after TE in northern california. Granberry is also a speedy wr with great hands. Too much talent not being utilized, but maybe the new head coach has different philosophies this year. Regardless they need to get points on the board to stand a chance against Serra. Mitty also has VC looming next week...............

This post was edited on 10/28 4:01 PM by PAL95

 

[colhenrylives]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 5 Upcoming Games, Serra vs Mitty

Good points all. Serra is living on a tightrope, made perilous by risky passes, fumbles, penalties and other gaffes. The question is: How long can its gifted cadre of outstanding individual playmakers compensate for all of these ongoing miscues? Cassidy is due back soon. He will shore up some of these problems, but certainly not all of them. Serra is vulnerable to both Mitty and Bellarmine. So Friday is huge for Serra. A WCAL title, or even a co-title, is right there for the taking. If the Padres beat themselves, shame on them.

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 5 Upcoming Games, Serra vs Mitty

Originally posted by colhenrylives:
Good points all. Serra is living on a tightrope, made perilous by risky passes, fumbles, penalties and other gaffes. The question is: How long can its gifted cadre of outstanding individual playmakers compensate for all of these ongoing miscues? Cassidy is due back soon. He will shore up some of these problems, but certainly not all of them. Serra is vulnerable to both Mitty and Bellarmine. So Friday is huge for Serra. A WCAL title, or even a co-title, is right there for the taking. If the Padres beat themselves, shame on them.

Colhenry is 100% correct with the above statement concerning Serra's on-going "risky passes, fumbles, penalties & other gaffes". BTW colnenry you forgot to mention the once a game hikes over either the QB or Punter's heads resulting in losses.
It is baffling how a team can make this many mistakes and keep winning, or can they? As I've previously said a good disciplined team that can take advantage of those mistakes will make Serra ripe for an upset, and the Bellarmine team is the one who comes to mind first making minimal turn-overs or mistakes. This Friday nights game should be interesting in a number of respects. Serra is favored by 10+, however miscues and/or sloppy play could narrow the margin considerably, possibly even in the Monarchs favor.
Should Serra be able to eliminate their 3-4 turnovers per game the Padres would be an altogether better caliber team.

Turn-overs to date by each team:
Serra = 15 INT's and 7 fumbles = 22 turnovers in 7 games
Mitty = 4 INT's and 2 fumbles = 6 turnovers in 7 games

Decisive edge to Mitty

 

[CityBaseballFan]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 5 Upcoming Games, Serra vs Mitty

The only full game that I've seen Serra play is against St. Ignatius, but I see a similar pattern in the scoring patterns in their other WCAL games.

Serra wears other teams down physically. The Padres were bigger, stronger and faster than the Wildcats. SI hung with them for 2.5 or 3 quarters, but then became susceptible to the big play late in the game. This is likely a combination of the Serra coaching staff figuring out what works and the physical advantage of the Padres.

Valley Christian, SI, St. Francis and Riordan all led Serra at one point in the game (all but VC at halftime), but were unable to counter a flurry of second half points as Serra took control of the games.

I'd suggest that Mitty needs to be up by 10 or 14 at halftime to have a good chance to win the game given Serra's proven ability to wear other teams down and overcome their self-inflicted mistakes.





This post was edited on 10/29 11:25 AM by CityBaseballFan

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 5 Upcoming Games, Serra vs Mitty


St. Ignatius @ Valley Christian Friday Nite:

* VC rated #3 in CCS vs St. Ignatius rated #9 in CCS

* VC = 3-1 WCAL & 5-2 overall
* SI = 1-3 WCAL & 4-3 overall

* VC averages 26.5 on Offense & allows 15.5 on defense per game
* SI averages 20.5 on Offense & allows 21.7 on defense per game

*Common Opponents: Serra & Bells:
VC lost to Serra 24-10 [-14]
SI lost to Serra 32-20 [-12]
VC defeated Bells 42-17 [+25]
SI lost to Bells 31-28 [-3]

Game Overview:
VC comes in averaging approx. 350 yards of offense per game, most of that being on the ground - 264 rushing + 87 passing.
VC doesn't pass a lot, but their QB Mike Machado has been highly efficient & effective when he does pass. Of Machado's 36 completions WR Colin Johnson has 25 receptions & is almost always the primary receiver. Kirk Johnson & Tre McCloud have nearly 1200 yards rushing between them. St. Ignatius has nearly double the yards in passing as VC and has the leagues leading passer in Ryan Hagfeldt - as Hadfeldt goes so goes St. Ignatius. SI's rushing total for the entrie team is less than Kirk Johnson & Tre McCloud of SI. Contrary to VC SI per game averages twice as many yards passing as rushing and Hagfeldt has 108 completions to Machado of VC's 36 completions. SI's top WR Conte to date has 39 receptions or more than VC as a team.
The teams have contrasting styles and should make for a entertaining game. SI has not been blown out of any game and Hagfeldt has the ability to get the hot hand and has an assortment of reliable WR's. VC leads with Kirk Johnson, then McCloud & then Quimby in rushing most of the game. So SI must slow down VC's fleet of RB's and VC must pressure SI's Hagfeldt & cover the receivers. To date both Milpitas & Serra were able to contain VC's run attack, but both those teams are more physical than SI.
SI will present the best passing team VC has faced & VC will need constant pressure on Hagfeldt. Hagfeldt if given time in the pocket will complete passes given he has some fine WR's. So simple: SI must slow down VC's stable of RB's and VC must pressure SI's QB to prevent him having time to complete passes. SI must also be able to run & gain yards against VC to slow down their pass pressure. SI will have to gamble a bit in trying to contain VC's ground game and not letting the RB's get to the corners.
Not sure physically how SI matches up to VC. VC dominated the Bells who are also not a big physical team & rely mainly on their ground game as well. If Hagfeldt can get the hot hand early SI may have a chance.

Prediction: VC 28-24
This post was edited on 10/30 4:10 PM by Rmbr26

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 5 Upcoming Games, St. Francis vs SHC Irish


St. Francis at SHC

* SF = 2-2 WCAL & 4-3 overall
* SHC = 0-4 WCAL & 3-4 overall

* SF averages 14.0 on Offense & allows 18 on defense per game
* SHC averages 13.7 on Offense & allows 25.5 on defense per game

*Common Opponents: MItty & Riordan:
SF beat MItty 15-14 [+1]
Mitty beat SHC 33-27 [+6]
SF beat Riordan 25-23 [+2]
Riordan beat SHC 14-7 [+7]

Both teams have had to struggle on offense while SF has the higher rated defense. On offense SF's stats do not look too bad at face value, but the Lancers have had trouble getting into the end zone. SF averages 96 passing & 145 rushing per game with Hurtado & Canty getting the bulk of the carries and Hebert is the primary wide-out with 18 catches for 400 yards. QB Akina has passed 42/77 but only thrown 1 TD & 5 INT's. In contrast SHC scores about the same as the Lancers, but has slightly better stats overall due to a weaker pre-season schedule. SHC averages 129 passing& 258 rushing per game with QB Logan White having similar passing stats to Akina of SF [SHC passes slightly more times than SF]. J. Williams-Sheppard is the featured RB with the bulk of carries although both J. Na & J. Jordan as RB's each have nearly a 7-yard average per carry, but seldom get carries in comparison to Williams-Sheppard. WR Ronan Murphy is the primary pass catcher with 20+ catches, although again 2 other wide-outs Defiesta & J. Na have a number of catches & good APC, but are seldom thrown to.
So it is unlikely that either team is going to light up the scoreboard marching up and down the field. Simply put both teams score in the 2-3 TD range and SF has the decisive edge on defense. Its a bit of a head scratcher why the Irish have not thrown more looking at their statistics. They rely much too heavily on the one RB WiIliams-Sheppard when they have the ability to alter carries evenly between 2-3 backs. Likewise the Irish have a good veteran QB in Logan White who may be one of the better QB's in the WCAL, but rarely throw - averaging 10-12 passes in most of their games. Its simple math if your defense is giving up nearly 4 TD's a game that you will not win many of them relying almost entirely on a ground game using primarily 1 RB. SF has a very good defense that is good against the run and SHC had better alter their game plan unlike against SI last week. SF can grind out the yards with a good offensive line and is capable in throwing occasionally. SHC may have an edge in QB's and likely has the edge in WR's from the stats using average per catch. If SHC tries to grind it out on the ground against the Lancers they will likely wear out their defense in the 2nd 1/2 of the game. SHC's best chance is to air it out and distribute the carries since SF will likely key on Williams-Sheppard. I'll base my prediction on the fact the Irish will not deviate much from their previous game plan. IF SHC attempts at least 20+ passes they'll have a better shot at SF IMO.

Prediction: SF 21-10

This post was edited on 10/30 5:02 PM by Rmbr26

 

[jordan24]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 5 Upcoming Games, Serra vs Mitty

Serra 35 @ Mitty 14: Serra getting healthy at the right time and could see the return of Kava Cassidy. Serra defense seemed uninterested last week in the first half against Riordan. I don't think that will happen this week. Serra offense, though, does seem more dangerous with Nunn under center than the newcomer Bishop.

SI 14 @ VC 35: Intriguing matchup of each team's strength - SI's passing game vs VC's pass defense. VC's running game will be the difference as they should eat up time of possession keeping SI's efficient passing game off the field.

SF 21 @ SHC 7: SHC will need to open up the offense if it is to pull off the upset at Daly City's Westmoor High. WIll be interesting how each team passes as both possess a good tall WR in SHC's Murphy and SF's Hebert. SF pass rush could be a challenge for SHC's beat up O-line. . SHC's JWS will need to share the rushing load with some other players to counter the 1-2 punch of SF's Hurtado and Canty if it is to sustain its drives on the ground for a full 4 quarters.

Riordan 14 @ Bells 35: Familiar line - Riordan D keeps the game close for a half until it runs out of gas. Too many Riordan 3 and outs based on Gen Lee's conservative/vanilla offensive gameplan will once again spell doom for the Crusaders. Bells to get some big plays in the second half to break it open. Not sure if Sanders or Greene will be back for this one. If not, it could get ugly sooner than later.

EVERY team is beat up this time of year. Injuries are part of the game, not an excuse. As I stated before, WCAL is survival of the fittest with the team(s) having the most depth, good coaching and talent taking home the crown.

Originally posted by Rmbr26:
Games Upcoming Friday Nite:
Serra @ Mitty
Riordan @ Bells
SI @ VC
SF @ SHC [Westmoor HS 3:00 p.m.]

Freeman Game Projections:
Serra 26 - Mitty 10 [Serra +16]
Bells 35 - Riordan 14 [Bells +21]
VC 28 - SI 20 [VC +8]

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 5 Upcoming Games, St. Francis vs SHC Irish

Riordan vs Bells

* RR = 1-3 WCAL & 1-6 overall
* Bells = 3-1 WCAL & 6-1 overall

* RR averages 13.5 on Offense & allows 25.2 on defense per game
* Bells averages 25.7 on Offense & allows 25.2 on defense per game

*Common Opponents: VC & SHC:
VC beat Bells 42-17 [-25]
VC beat Riordan 33-7 [-26]
Bells beat SHC 35-14 [+21]
Riordan beat SHC 14-7 [+7]


Riordan is averaging 84 passing & 141 rushing per game on offense which is close to what several other WCAL teams average. The Crusaders passing of 63/143 is also in line with several of the teams along with tis yardage total. The difference would be in the 2 TD's + 11 INT's - of which Serra & Riordan have by far the 2 highest INT totals. Riordan has 3 respectable RB's in Caston, Novello & Sanders although not the type of breakaway backs as Bells McCauley. Riordan also has a trio of good WR's in Novello, Cochrane & Verba-HamiltonBoth Bells QB's have been effective when they do pass & both QB's can run, but their ground game is their primary offense and has been averaging around 300 yards per game. The Bells do not possess a big, physical defense, but they can get the job done. Against VC the Bells were dominated by the more physical Valley Christian team. From what I've seen of Riordan they have a physical defense & could potentially give the Bells some problems. What Riordan needs of course on offense to take advantage of opportunities as well as avoid turn-overs. Riordan if they play as well as against SF & SHC could make this a close game.

Prediction: Bells 34 - 20

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 5 League Results


St. Francis 27-21 over SHC
VC 17-15 over SI
Bells 28-15 over Riordan
Mitty 27-14 over Serra

WCAL Standings:
1] Serra, VC & Bells at 4-1
2] SF, Mitty at 3-2
3] SI, Riordan at 1-4
4] SHC at 0-5

While SI has suffered some tough losses it is starting to look like any of the 5 teams currently tied for first or second place is capable of beating any of the other 4 teams. Here are the updated rankings/ratings of the CCS Top 10 teams from Freeman and they look accurate at this point:

1] Milpitas
2] Valley Christian
3] Serra
4] Bells
5] Palma
6] Mitty
7] Los Gatos
8] SF
9] SI
10] SHP

Here are the adjusted order for Offense & Defense WCAL game averages after yesterday's games:

Offense - Points scored per game:
1] Bells 26.2
2] VC 24.4
3] Serra 24
4] Mitty 21.6
5] SI - 19.4
6] SF 16.6
7] SHC 15.2
8] RR 13.8

Defense - Points allowed per game:
1] Serra 13.8
2] VC 15.4
3] Mitty 18.0
4] SF 18.6
5] SI 20.8
6] Bells 23.2
7] RR & SHC both at 25.8

 

[Rmbr26]

Re: WCAL 2014 - Week 6 of League Play

This week's upcoming games for WCAL league play with 2 games remaining:

Friday night 7:00 pm:
Valley Christian vs Mitty at Foothill College
St. Francis vs Bells at SJCC
Serra vs SHC at Terra Nova

Saturday 2:00 pm:
SI vs Riordan

Freeman Projections for games:
Valley Christian 22-19 over Mitty [+3]
Bells 28-21 over St. Francis [+7]
Serra 35-10 over SHC [+25]
SI 24-8 over Riordan [+16]

At a glance: Well the fans who proclaimed no team would go undefeated in league play were correct once again. Mitty's dominating 27-14 win over then favored Serra may have created more questions than answers in what is now a very confusing finish to the season. There are now 3 teams tied for first place and 2 teams tied for 2nd. Of course the biggest game this week would be VC vs Mitty and whichever team wins will likely win their last game as well. VC seems to have turned things around since the Serra loss and Mitty should be very confidant after taking down Serra. If VC wins they will likely finish league at 6-1 having their remaining game against SHC in which they'll be heavy favorite either way. The other big game is Bells vs SF and St. Francis could spell trouble for Bellarmine if the Lancers can get their offense untracked [and if not & SF scores 21 or less then SF will likely lose].. SF & Mitty played close at15-14 and the Bells also played Mitty close at 20-17, so this game looks like another nail-biter. The projection on this game seems about right unless SF can slow down Bells run heavy offense - and SF can score more than 21 points. After last weeks debacle loss to Mitty the point spread between Serra vs SHC seems a bit high to me and I'd take the 25 points + SHC in this game. SHC's worst loss this season was by 21 points to the Bells, however this last week SF barely got by the Irish of SHC by 27-21. Serra still has to play the Bells in their final game & Serra has not proven it can avoid the fumbles, INT's & penalties on a regular basis. If Serra continues this trend they could likely lose to the Bells in which with a VC win over Mitty would leave VC & Bells as Co-Champs of the WCAL. Serra could not run against the Monarch D so it will be interesting to see how the Monarch's react to Valley Christian's running attack. I am not quite sure that VC is favored in this game and should be a good game to watch. SI by 16 over the Crusader's seems about right as SI should be able to outscore Riordan by 2 TD's & a FG [Riordan has scored 10 points or less in their last 3 games].

So the question is which would be the bigger upset SF over Bells or Mitty over VC?