St. Francis Lancer's 8-3 vs Aragon Don's 10-1 in CCS Division II Semi-Final
Definitely an interesting match-up and a game I'm certainly looking forward to. The PAL Bay League has been having an outstanding year with a number of good teams, but as of yet not much inter-action between PAL & WCAL in which to gauge the better teams. Early in the season both Bellarmine & Mitty had close wins over Menlo-Atherton the 3rd place team in PAL Bay, so not a great determination of the 2 best teams Aragon & HMB.
Glancing at the teams let's see how they match up on paper and why SF is favored by 10 points to defeat Aragon.
Rosters: SF 71 players, Aragon 49
Avg Points Per Game Offense: SF 36, Aragon 30
Avg Points Allowed Per Game: SF 16, Aragon 16
Yards Passing Per Game: SF 125, Aragon 135
Yards Rushing Per Game: SF 219, Aragon 211
TD's Scored: SF 50, Aragon 37
Interceptions: SF 8, Aragon 8
Key Players:
QB's: SF - Reed Vettel 6'5-190, Passing 1365 yards, 13 TD's, 3 INT's - QB Rating 110.7
Aragon - Gabe Campos 5'7-155, Passing 1361 yards, 10 TD's, 3 Int's - QB Rating 92.7
Running Backs: SF Darrel Page 5'10-185, Rushed 1676 yards, 152 per game, 7.8 YPC, 18 TD's
Lucas Andrighetto 5'11-185, Rushed 334 yards, 7.0 YPC, 3 TD's
Aragon RB's: Paul Lautami 5'10-185, Rushed 1400 yards, 140 per game, 7.4 YPC, 12 TD's
Cameron Grant 5'10-185, Rushed 426 yards, 5.0 YPC, 9 TD's
Wide Receivers: SF Evan Williams 5'11-180, 346 yards, 7 TD's, 20 YPC avg
SF Maurice Wilmar 6'2-195, 246 yards, 4 TD's, 29 YPC avg
Aragon: Davion Cox 6'2-185, 688 yards, 6 TD's, 19 YPC avg
Key Defenders: SF James Dineen 6'4-220 LB, Lucas Andrighetto 5'11-185 SS, Evan WIlliams 5'11-180 S,
Tyler Manoa 6'4-285 DT, Joshua Pakola 6'4-240 LB, Longahulu Ahoia 6'4-260 DT, Jr. Fehoko 6'4-240 - LB
Aragon: Dante Pachini 5'10-200 LB, Lopeti Pierce 6'3-195 LB, Michael Mueller 6'2-265 DE,
Cameron Grant 5'10-185 LB, Davion Cox 6'2-185 DB [
* 7-INT's], Matt Gee 5'6-155 FS, Moses Olive 6'1-240 DT
Kickers- PAT's & FG's: dead-even on both percentages by both teams kickers with longest FG at 33 yards for both.
Conclusion: difficult to judge any huge advantage by either team. SF does have a larger roster by 12 players which is certainly not a disadvantage. Both teams have an abundance of large lineman which does not always translate into an advantage, but when it comes to the line its good to have some "beef" up front. SF's QB Vettel has a sizable height advantage at 6'4 to Aragon's Campos at 5'7 - advantage to Vettel when passing & viewing field whereas Campos has got to be hard to see on defense when scrambling. The 2 best players on the field regardless of position are usually skill players and in this case is no exception, SF's Darrel Page the WCAL's rushing leader is one of the best in CCS and nearly impossible to stop for a full game without breaking at least one run. Aragon's Davian Cox is the Don's big playmaker on both sides of the ball and especially effective on defense at the corner with 7 interceptions [ranks as 5th in CCS]. Likely Cox will cover Evan Williams & help on Wilmar as needed. Both teams rely heavily on the run, but both can pass as well with and the percentage of run to pass is almost even.
QB: advantage SF with 3-year QB Vettel who has big game experience including playing in a state bowl game.
Running Backs: advantage SF as they have Darrel Page.
Wide Receivers: advantage Aragon with Davion Cox whose stats equal that of both SF's top WR's.
Defense: advantage SF - while both teams allow 16 PPG the Lancers have had a far tougher schedule including De La Salle, Valley Christian and Serra. Looking down the rosters SF seems to have an edge on the defensive side of the ball throughout with size and experience such as All-American Tyler Manoa at 6'4-285 who can play both ways.
Both teams have above average secondaries.
Over under: currently has SF at 10-point favorites with the spread being 7-14.
