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WCAL Football 2017: Sports Stars Magazine write up of Serra's State Bowl Win

St. Francis Crushes Aragon 42-7

The Lancer's advance to CCS Championship game with rematch of either Serra or VC
sfvsaragon-photo15.jpg

St. Francis safety Evan Williams (32) runs back a interception for a touchdown against Aragon during the second half of the CCS semi-finals open division II Football Championships game, Friday, Nov. 24, 2017 in San Mateo, Calif. St. Francis won 42-7. (Tony Avelar/Bay Area News Group)

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/24/ccs-football-playoffs-st-francis-feasts-in-rout-at-aragon/

Reading the news article and the comments from posters it sounds like it was a complete dismantling of Aragon in which they seld-destructed with a couple pick-6's by Lancers and Aragon also contributed a fumble or 2. Aragon apparently had some long drives but each time came up empty. So are the Lancer's THAT much better than the Don's or was it a "perfect storm" with SF playing close to error free football while Aragon stumbled on the big stage before an overflow crowd?

Looking at the numbers: Aragon gave up the most points on defense all year of 42 [previous high was 27 against Aptos].
Aragon scored the least amount of points of any game all year with 7 [next lowest was HMB].
St. Francis scored 40 or more points for the 5th time this season out of 12 games.
St. Francis limited an opponent to under 10-points for the 7th time this season out of 12 games.
SF had a power ranking approx. 12 points higher than Aragon prior to game.
SF had played 3 Top 1000 teams including De La Salle while Aragon had not played a Top 1000 team.

Surprisingly Aragon out-gained the Lancers on the ground by 202 yards to 126 and held SF's dynamic RB Darrell Page to just 77 yards [averaged 152 per game coming in]. So 2 pick 6's and an early fumble was converted by SF into 21 points. Aragon also had a long drive ending with a 4th & goal at the 1-yard line and the Lancer's stopped Aragon for a loss to take over possession. I was not there and maybe colhenry or others could confirm if the teams were more evenly matched than the final score indicates. It appears that St. Francis did benefit from its much tougher schedule as well as big game experience in playoffs [Reed Vettel played in a state bowl game his sophomore season with Lancers'. 21-points on turnovers and a drive stalling on the 1-yard line with no points is a 28-point swing. Lots of "IF's" in sports and IF those 4 plays were reversed then the game was 14-7 SF. Big win for St. Francis and a very tough loss and way to end the season for Aragon.


 
I didn't see the game, but based on the article, it sounds like Aragon stacked the box to stop the run, leaving the pass game open for Vettel & company. Totally upset that my NFHS package didn't air this game, would love to see what those Aragon sustained drives vs. St. Francis looked like just as much as you do.
 
Adam007 said:
I didn't see the game, but based on the article, it sounds like Aragon stacked the box to stop the run, leaving the pass game open for Vettel & company. Totally upset that my NFHS package didn't air this game, would love to see what those Aragon sustained drives vs. St. Francis looked like just as much as you do.
Click to expand...

VC defense and special teams were outstanding all night. Attention to detail and preparation mean a lot. SF had all of the answers at the right times. Bottom line for the Dons: They couldn't score until the game was decided. SF will be a load for Serra next week.
 
Rmbr26 said:
St. Francis Crushes Aragon 42-7

The Lancer's advance to CCS Championship game with rematch of either Serra or VC
sfvsaragon-photo15.jpg

St. Francis safety Evan Williams (32) runs back a interception for a touchdown against Aragon during the second half of the CCS semi-finals open division II Football Championships game, Friday, Nov. 24, 2017 in San Mateo, Calif. St. Francis won 42-7. (Tony Avelar/Bay Area News Group)

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/11/24/ccs-football-playoffs-st-francis-feasts-in-rout-at-aragon/

Reading the news article and the comments from posters it sounds like it was a complete dismantling of Aragon in which they seld-destructed with a couple pick-6's by Lancers and Aragon also contributed a fumble or 2. Aragon apparently had some long drives but each time came up empty. So are the Lancer's THAT much better than the Don's or was it a "perfect storm" with SF playing close to error free football while Aragon stumbled on the big stage before an overflow crowd?

Looking at the numbers: Aragon gave up the most points on defense all year of 42 [previous high was 27 against Aptos].
Aragon scored the least amount of points of any game all year with 7 [next lowest was HMB].
St. Francis scored 40 or more points for the 5th time this season out of 12 games.
St. Francis limited an opponent to under 10-points for the 7th time this season out of 12 games.
SF had a power ranking approx. 12 points higher than Aragon prior to game.
SF had played 3 Top 1000 teams including De La Salle while Aragon had not played a Top 1000 team.

Surprisingly Aragon out-gained the Lancers on the ground by 202 yards to 126 and held SF's dynamic RB Darrell Page to just 77 yards [averaged 152 per game coming in]. So 2 pick 6's and an early fumble was converted by SF into 21 points. Aragon also had a long drive ending with a 4th & goal at the 1-yard line and the Lancer's stopped Aragon for a loss to take over possession. I was not there and maybe colhenry or others could confirm if the teams were more evenly matched than the final score indicates. It appears that St. Francis did benefit from its much tougher schedule as well as big game experience in playoffs [Reed Vettel played in a state bowl game his sophomore season with Lancers'. 21-points on turnovers and a drive stalling on the 1-yard line with no points is a 28-point swing. Lots of "IF's" in sports and IF those 4 plays were reversed then the game was 14-7 SF. Big win for St. Francis and a very tough loss and way to end the season for Aragon.
Click to expand...

No, the teams are not evenly matched. SF is significantly better. SF defense and special teams are outstanding. Forget the stats. The final score and the eyeball test suffice. SF will give Serra all it can handle next week. I would not bet my meager weekly allowance on that one.
 
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On further review, maybe we should take a step back. Once again, SF should handle Aragon. Look at the Lancers' huge 70-man roster. They have kids who hail from the following towns: San Carlos, East Palo Alto, Newark, Hayward, Palo Alto, Redwood City, San Jose, Morgan Hill, Menlo Park, Atherton, Cupertino, Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Bruno, Los Gatos, Hillsborough, Foster City, Los Altos, Woodside and Campbell. SF does not have attendance boundaries. Aragon most surely does. Aragon has strict rules regarding who can attend classes there. Aragon's roster is made up of guys from places like Foster City, San Mateo and Hillsborough. In other words, strictly local kids. So some perspective is in order here. Not making excuses for what happened Friday night. But facts are facts. The two schools operate with very different rules. And we all know which one has the overwhelming advantage. It's something public schools simply have to live with annually. Hey, who said life was fair?
 
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Serra 31-14 over VC Final:

Having watched the game today and posted my comments along the way I'll add just a few more. I was impressed with Valley Christian and they have some very, very good athletes on that team and a lot of speed. Their #1 QB Juan Turner was mis-firing early and missed a number of open receivers. Serra's D was all over the run for VC early and once Serra got ahead quickly VC was predisposed to the pass. VC's coaches made the right change at the right time as Tayler looked quite good with the help of Alton Julian [Wow!]. Bottari threw 2 "un-Bottari" like INT's, but then again the Padres intercepted Taylor 4 times with 2 TD's called back on pick-6's. Personally I think VC is an excellent team and I'd go with VC over SF in a rematch. I just don't think VC matches up well with Serra which leads me to another point. Serra;s secondary is better than most years' except for that terrible mishap to give VC an 80 yard TD with 3 secs left in the first 1/2. The entire secondary should have been 15-20 yards off the ball and as for Julian catching the "Hail Mary" all Serra had to do was tackle him and the 1/2 would have ended [but give credit where due & Alton Julian shredded Serra tacklers like coleslaw on the way to the endzone - tho Serra fans would be grateful for his unsportsmanlike penalty after scoring which assisted in the 2nd 1/2 KO score by Serra].

In the end without all the penalties Serra could have won by 1-2 additional scores & that is nothing to discredit VC. Serra has THAT many options with 4 very good WR's and 3 good RB's along with their league leading Jr QB. The problem for opposing teams is HOW many guys can you cover with Serra? You have 4 WR's who are all good & fast, 3 RB's of which 2 are power-backs and Kendricks can go up the middle or into over-drive around the end and then Bottari who has good field presence and today had a 30-yard scramble. Its a scenario most teams simply can't prepare for.

I do agree with colhenry as I see St. Francis as the bigger threat to Serra winning the D-II championship. SF matches up better with Serra and also presents Serra with some challenges. Serra did not contain SF's rush game with Darrell Page quite as well as VC's Charlie Bostic/Edgar Conner and SF is a better passing team than VC. The first game of Serra-SF was 10-points and not sure this one won't be closer. SF has now seen Serra up close and will be better prepared. The Lancers know what's coming & just a question of whether they can stop it.
 
CCS Top Rated Teams as of 11/26 per CalPreps computer rankings:

1. Serra 10-2
2. SF 9-3
3. Milpitas 11-0
4. VC 9-3
5. HMB 12-0
6. Aragon 10-2
7. Salinas 10-2
8. M-A 7-5
9. Terra Nova 7-5
10. Mitty 5-6
11. Gilroy 12-0
12. Wilcox 7-4
13. Bells 4-7
14. Aptos 7-4
15. Menlo 8-4
17. SHC 6-5
19. S.I.
28. Riordan

With some teams now done for the season their power ratings will stay the same while others will change if they played any of the teams heading into the CCS Division Championship games. As has been discussed previously the computer ratings take into effect win/loss records, points scored and allowed and opponents win/loss records. As we know from past history it tends to rank teams with unbeaten records although with soft schedules too high, above that of teams with multiple losses although against much better competition. The
best games for comparison would be the Aragon-St. Francis game and the Milpitas-Menlo-Atherton games Friday nite. St. Francis won 42-7 over the 2nd place PAL Bay team which lost by 1 score to the #1 PAL Bay team HMB. While it's difficult to take 2 game scores and compare a common opponent, it is eye-opening when the difference in scores is glaring: HMB 21-14 over Aragon, St. Francis 42-7 over Aragon.
The 2nd game was a close & competitive one between Milpitas 11-0 and Menlo-Atherton 7-5. While Milpitas did win by 33-21 the 3rd place PAL Bay M-A team gave Milpitas all it could handle. I have Serra, SF & VC at the top 3 teams in CCS with Milpitas at 4th place.

Of the Top 10 rated teams in the CCS the only 2 undefeated teams Milpitas & HMB have had the weakest schedules. The next 2 weakest schedules are Salinas and Terra Nova whom Milpitas and HMB will meet this coming week in the Div I and Div III Championship games. I'm not sure how much drama will occur in either of these 2 games as HMB already won over Terra Nova 49-7 earlier this season and Milpitas likewise shut-out Salinas by 27-0. How much of a challenge will Salinas pose to Milpitas? 1 of Salinas 5 losses was to Terra Nova 28-17. The HMB-Terra Nova game is significant in that both teams are from the coast and are long-time rivals between Pacifica and Half Moon Bay residents. It would be an even more attractive game had not the first game been a 49-7 blow-out.

The likely scenarios of the upcoming CCS Championship games:

Div I: Milpitas vs Salinas - likely a bit closer than the first 27-0 Milpitas shut-out though Salinas will still be a heavy underdog. I still see Milpitas as a 14-21 point favorite over 7-5 Salinas. 3rd best game to watch next week.

Div II: Serra 10-2 vs St. Francis 9-3 will be the most watched game of the 5 divisions IMO. Serra came back late in the first game to win 31-21. SF is coming off a blow-out of Aragon 42-7 and Serra off a 31-14 win over Valley Christian. Serra will also be without their star Cal-commit 2-way lineman Neo Mafi who will be missed.
2 very good teams and while Serra is a slight favorite no one is counting out SF.

Div III: Half Moon Bay was expected to roll through the playoffs and nothing has happened to change that.
Takes on 7-5 Terra Nova whom the Cougars previously rolled 49-7. For coastal fans this is the ONLY game to watch next week as the town of HMB should be in a delusional frenzy in the week leading up to the championship. How far can the HMB Cougars Go is the only question.

Div IV: Christopher 10-2 vs Leland 11-1. While Leland has the better record by 1 win Christopher should win this one simply based on a schedule that included 1 team of note in losing to Gilroy by 24-6. While Gilroy is anything but a powerhouse Leland did not play a team ranked in the Top 6000 [highest win was over #7706 Willow Glen].

Div V: Menlo 8-4 takes on Gilroy 12-0. Should be a close competitive game as Menlo finished the season strong and is playing well. Gilroy though 12-0 has had the weakest schedule of the Top 25 rated CCS teams and its opponents have lost more games than they have won. In Gilroy's defense they just had a convincing win over Hillsdale. Menlo should be able to give Gilroy a competitive game. This should be the 2nd best game to watch.
 
colhenrylives said:
On further review, maybe we should take a step back. Once again, SF should handle Aragon. Look at the Lancers' huge 70-man roster. They have kids who hail from the following towns: San Carlos, East Palo Alto, Newark, Hayward, Palo Alto, Redwood City, San Jose, Morgan Hill, Menlo Park, Atherton, Cupertino, Santa Clara, San Mateo, San Bruno, Los Gatos, Hillsborough, Foster City, Los Altos, Woodside and Campbell. SF does not have attendance boundaries. Aragon most surely does. Aragon has strict rules regarding who can attend classes there. Aragon's roster is made up of guys from places like Foster City, San Mateo and Hillsborough. In other words, strictly local kids. So some perspective is in order here. Not making excuses for what happened Friday night. But facts are facts. The two schools operate with very different rules. And we all know which one has the overwhelming advantage. It's something public schools simply have to live with annually. Hey, who said life was fair?
Click to expand...
Aragon does have a key player from South City. But I do get your point.
 
Highest Rated Bay Area Teams in CA:

Of 1,043 high schools with football teams in the state here are the highest rated top 15 teams listed within the bay area. Of the 15 teams 3 are from the WCAL and 3 teams are from the Bay Valley League [Pitt, Liberty & Freedom]

#5 DLS 10-1
#15 Pitt 8-1
#30 Serra 10-2
#40 SRV 9-2
#49 St. Francis 9-3
#52 Liberty 10-2
#54 Freedom 9-2
#56 Milpitas 12-0
#65 CVC 8-3
#78 Valley Christian 9-3
#83 Sutter 12-1
#84 Card Newman 10-2
#85 Marin Catholic 11-0
#87 Half Moon Bay 12-0
#112 Bishop O'Dowd 9-3
 
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Rmbr26 said:
Highest Rated Bay Area Teams in CA:

Of 1,043 high schools with football teams in the state here are the highest rated top 15 teams listed within the bay area. Of the 15 teams 3 are from the WCAL and 2 teams are from the Bay Valley League [Liberty & Freedom]

#5 DLS 10-1
#15 Pitt 8-1
#30 Serra 10-2
#40 SRV 9-2
#49 St. Francis 9-3
#52 Liberty 10-2
#54 Freedom 9-2
#56 Milpitas 12-0
#65 CVC 8-3
#78 Valley Christian 9-3
#83 Sutter 12-1
#84 Card Newman 10-2
#85 Marin Catholic 11-0
#87 Half Moon Bay 12-0
#112 Bishop O'Dowd 9-3
Click to expand...

Is Sutter in the Bay Area?
 
Pitt is also from the Bay Valley Athletic League (BVAL). So along with Freedom and Liberty the BVAL has 3 of the top 7.
 
Thanks observer22 for catching that.

Highest Rated Bay Area Teams in CA:
Of 1,043 high schools with football teams in the state here are the highest rated top 15 teams listed within the bay area. Of the 15 teams 3 are from the WCAL and 3 teams are from the Bay Valley League [Pitt, Liberty & Freedom]

#5 DLS 10-1
#15 Pitt 8-1
#30 Serra 10-2
#40 SRV 9-2
#49 St. Francis 9-3
#52 Liberty 10-2
#54 Freedom 9-2
#56 Milpitas 12-0
#65 CVC 8-3
#78 Valley Christian 9-3
#83 Sutter 12-1
#84 Card Newman 10-2
#85 Marin Catholic 11-0
#87 Half Moon Bay 12-0
#112 Bishop O'Dowd 9-3
 
Upcoming Playoff Games Friday & Saturday Nights:

Looking at the NFHSnetwork it appears that just about all playoff games are scheduled to be live-streamed including the Serra-St. Francis rematch Saturday at 7:00 PM in San Jose. HMB-Terra Nova and Pitt-DLS included as well.
 
Serra-St. Francis "Bits & Pieces" of Trivia..
[below excludes the SF/DLS game stats]

* Serra for season averaged 40.5 points per game offense and allowed 16.8 defense.
* St. Francis for season averaged 33.1 PPG offense and allowed 15 defense.

* Serra during WCAL league averaged 45.8 offense & allowed 12.0 defense.
* St. Francis during WCAL league averaged 31.8 offense & allowed 15.7 defense.

* Serra for season averaged 194 passing and 203 rushing per game.
* SF for season averaged 126 passing per game and 211 rushing per game.

* SF QB Reed Vettel had highest QB rating of season at 141.4.
* Serra QB Luke Bottari had highest rating vs Mitty of 165.2.

* SF's Vettel had most attempts of season vs Serra - 11/23 - 123 yards.
* Serra's Bottari had most attempts of season vs St. Mary's - 20/37 - 226 yards.

* SF's lowest rush per carry avg of season vs VC = 2.8 YPC.
* Serra lowest rush per carry avg of season vs St Mary's & SF = 3.1 + 3.5

* SF's lowest pass reception average vs Serra = 11.2 YPC
* Serra lowest pass reception average vs St. Mary's 10.0 YPC

* SF's lowest yards offense in game = 213 yards vs VC.
* Serra lowest yards offense in game = 269 vs St. Mary's

* SF most points scored this season = 52 vs Wilcox.
* Serra most points scored this season = 64 vs Mitty.

SF least amount of points scored = 21 vs VC & Serra.
Serra least amount of points scored = 13 vs St. Mary's.

*Serra's Bottari is the league leading most efficient QB and stat leader.
* SF's Vettel is the 2nd most efficient in terms of stats and QB rating in WCAL.

* SF's Darrel Page is the clear #1 RB in WCAL for yardage gained at 1753 yards.
* Serra's Isaiah Kendrick is the WCAL's 2nd leading RB [with Charlie Bostic] at just over 1200 yards.

* SF's Evan Williams is SF's top WR pass catcher.
* Serra has 5 of the league's top WR pass catchers.
 
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Rmbr26 said:
Serra-St. Francis "Bits & Pieces" of Trivia..
[below excludes the SF/DLS game stats]

* Serra for season averaged 40.5 points per game offense and allowed 16.8 defense.
* St. Francis for season averaged 33.1 PPG offense and allowed 15 defense.

* Serra during WCAL league averaged 45.8 offense & allowed 12.0 defense.
* St. Francis during WCAL league averaged 31.8 offense & allowed 15.7 defense.

* Serra for season averaged 194 passing and 203 rushing per game.
* SF for season averaged 126 passing per game and 211 rushing per game.

* SF QB Reed Vettel had highest QB rating of season at 141.4.
* Serra QB Luke Bottari had highest rating vs Mitty of 165.2.

* SF's Vettel had most attempts of season vs Serra - 11/23 - 123 yards.
* Serra's Bottari had most attempts of season vs St. Mary's - 20/37 - 226 yards/
* SF's lowest rush per carry avg of season vs VC = 2.8 YPC.
* Serra lowest rush per carry avg of season vs St Mary's & SF = 3.1 + 3.5

* SF's lowest pass reception average vs Serra = 11.2 YPC
* Serra lowest pass reception average vs St. Mary's 10.0 YPC

* SF's lowest yards offense in game = 213 yards vs VC.
* Serra lowest yards offense in game = 269 vs St. Mary's

* SF most points scored this season = 52 vs Wilcox.
* Serra most points scored this season = 64 vs Mitty.

SF least amount of points scored = 21 vs VC & Serra.
Serra least amount of points scored = 13 vs St. Mary's.

*Serra's Bottari is the league leading most efficient QB and stat leader.
* SF's Vettel is the 2nd most efficient in terms of stats and QB rating in WCAL.

* SF's Darrel Page is the clear #1 RB in WCAL for yardage gained at 1753 yards.
* Serra's Isaiah Kendrick is the WCAL's 2nd leading RB [with Charlie Bostic] at just ove 1200 yards.

* SF's Evan Williams is SF's top WR pass catcher.
* Serra has 5 of the league's top WR pass catchers.
Click to expand...

What about special teams?
 
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Serra - St. Francis: Special Teams & Defensive Take-aways

Serra is favored coming into this game having defeated SF previous and also VC twice who won over SF.
As for being "favored" the over/under on this game will be less at game time than the Serra-VC game.
VC simply didn't match up well with Serra and became more evident in the 2nd meeting between the 2 teams.
SF is a more difficult team for Serra to face as the 2 teams are somewhat similar. Serra has the leagues leading QB and SF's Vettel is the 2nd leading most efficient QB [and with 3 yrs varsity experience]. SF passes more than VC giving the Lancers more options and challenging Serra more than loading the box against the run such as with VC. SF has the leagues leading RB in Darrell Page while Serra's Isaiah Kendricks is 2nd [along with VC's Charlie Bostic]. SF relies more on Page than Serra does on Kendrick as Serra uses 3 other RB's in rotation while SF relies primarily on Andrighetto as the secondary RB. SF's Williams is their best pass receiving threat while Serra goes deep with Nunn & Park along with Villaroman and Adkins as the possession WR's.

photos courtesy Mercury News

Special Teams and Defense:
Likely will play an important part in this games outcome. Both teams have aggressive defenses and will look for take-aways in the form of INT's and fumbles. SF vs Aragon had 2 pick-6's and a fumble recovery on opening kickoff resulting in a 21 point swing in the Lancers favor. Serra had 4 Int's vs Valley Christian killing the Warrior's momentum in each case. Serra and SF have 2 of the WCAL's best kickers in Maioulo [SF] and Lewis [Serra], both kicking regular touch-backs and each has kicked a mid-30 yard FG. With field position being so crucial any kick-offs that result in touch-backs will be crucial to either team. The punting is even on both these teams as both average in the mid-30's on punts. SF has always had a reputation of excellent special teams play and has had luck in this area against the Padres in past games. This game could well come down to a special teams play such as a blocked PAT or punt, KO or punt return for TD or possibly a pick-6. As good as SF's D is I would say a shut-out of Serra is unrealistic. IMO SF must limit the Padres to approx. 1/2 of their scoring average of 45 in league play and SF must score close to their average of 31 in league. On paper it looks like quite a challenge for the Lancer's and why special teams play could tilt the field in their favor.
 
[B]colhenrylives[/B] said:
The annual list is so long it has to be released in takes. In total, it makes the Dead Sea Scrolls look terse.
Click to expand...

No truer words ever spoken colhenry and the most dreaded all league list I have yet to stumble upon.

Anyway its of interest to players and their families and to answer kshepps question its usually released sometime in December OR after all league teams have completed their seasons'. The league is smart enough not to release their league MVP and MVP's by position too soon in event a Serra, SF or VC went to state and made some choices look foolish.

As for S.I. each team depending on record will have a handful of choices at the coaches discretion and being a senior seems to be extremely helpful. I would think both Woodruff and Katz are shoe-ins as 2 standouts from the S.I. team. Katz was extremely fun to watch scrambling and could easily fit in as one of the 4-5 QB's they show on 1rst 2 teams. Likewise for Woodruff esp. being a 2-way player with very good stats on both sides of the ball. Wide Receiver position is loaded this season in WCAL with 6-8 very good ones, but kshepps says Woodruff has stats to be near the top.
 
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Predictions for Serra-St. Francis Winner & Score?

A lot of fans going back & forth on this game and a bit unsure as to what to expect. The one thing many fans will agree on is that the 2nd game between 2 teams in the same season is usually closer the 2nd time around. This is simply due to the fact each team has a better idea of what to expect and the players they'll be facing. So lets take a look a little further and see if we can come up with an idea of where this game is headed - Serra wins in a close one or the Lancer's D takes over capitalizing on Serra mistakes and SF takes game #2 in an upset. I’ll first look at Serra-VC games #1 & #2 to see how the games compared.
bng-l-stfrancis-1111-17.jpg

photo courtesy Mercury News

A look at Serra-VC in game #1 vs game #2.

Game #1 - Serra wins 35-7: VC strikes first on a pass play to go up 7-0. Serra marches down field to tie the game 7-7 to end the 1rst quarter. 2nd Serra TD is a 57-yard pass from Bottari to Park to go up 13-7 after missed PAT. During the 2nd quarter Serra forced a VC fumble and grabbed an INT as well. Serra 13-7 at 1/2. In 3rd quarter Serra erupts for 22 points in 8 minutes: Kendrick 70 yard TD run, Kendrick 11 yard TD run and Vakalahi 14 yard TD run. Serra also completes a 2 point conversion to score 22 in the 3rd and make score 35-7.IN the 3rd and 4th quarters VC’s run game is ineffective and unable to get their pass game going. In the game VC has 3 turnovers on 2 INT's and a fumble to none for Serra. Serra wins by 28.

Game #2 - Serra wins 31-17: 1rst quarter Serra's Bottari hits Nunn with a 45 yard pass play to the VC 4 and then QB Bottari sneaks for the TD and 7-0 Serra. 2nd quarter Serra drives downfield and Kendricks finds a seam up the middle for a 14 yard TD & Serra 14-0. After VC QB Juan Turner misfires on a number of passes to open WR's Coach Machado pulls the senior QB in favor of little used soph back-up QB Cory Taylor. QB Taylor soon finds WR Alton Julian for a 32 yard TD and VC is on the board with score 14-7 Serra. On ensuing kickoff Kendricks runs the ball back 53 yards and 3 plays later Serra's Lahlouh plows in from the 5 for a TD to make it Serra 21-7. With 3 secs left in 1/2 Taylor connects with Alton Julian again for an 80- yard TD and 21-14 at the 1/2. Serra returned the opening kickoff into VC territory and just over a minute into the 3rd quarter Serra's Lahlouh runs it in from the 12 to make it Serra 28-14. Later in the 3rd quarter Serra's kicker Lewis makes a 34-yard FG to make the score 31-14 going into the 4th and final score. Serra has a fumble and 2 INT's while VC has a fumble and is intercepted 4 times by Serra. Serra wins by 17.

In both games the 3rd quarter was the turning point where Serra scored 22 in game 1 and 10 in game 2 while holding VC to 0. That was not the case in the Serra game vs St. Francis though and why game 2 between these 2 teams may be different.

Game #1 - Serra 31-21 over SF: This game early on looked like a runaway by Serra as the Lancer's had no answers defensively for the Padres. Bottari completed 2 long passes to Nunn and Villaroman before a short run made it 7-0 Serra. Bottari then hit Park on a 69 yard TD pass and 14-0 Serra. Next up a Bottari 64 yard pass play to Kendricks and Serra up 21-0 in the 2nd. SF drives and with 2 minutes left in 1/2 scores on a short pass to make it Serra 21-7 at 1/2. In the 3rd Serra's offense is not effective against SF and teams trade possessions. With 3 minutes left in 3rd SF drives and scores on a short run to make it Serra 21-13 after 2-point conversion fails. With 9 minutes to go in game SF scores again on a short rushing play & completes the 2-point conversion to tie game at 21 all. 2 minutes later Serra's Lewis kicks a 34 yard FG and Serra 24-21. Serra holds SF on next drive and after punt a short Serra pass to Park turns into a long TD run with 4 minutes remaining in game. Serra outgained SF in the air while SF had the advantage in rushing. There was 1 turnover by SF with an interception that did not result in points. Serra wins by 10.

So not much separated the teams and the difference was a few more big plays by Serra. These are 2 very good teams and there will be a lot of talent on the field Saturday night. With both teams motivated and not much separating them this game may come down to mistakes/penalties and the opposing teams ability to take advantage of those mistakes. The key as I see it is SF must slow down Serra’s offense. If Serra’s offense scores over 30 I see the Padres winning in a similar score to the last VC game which was 31-17.

Rmbr26 Prediction: Serra 31-24
 
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Rmbr26 said:
Predictions for Serra-St. Francis Winner & Score?

A lot of fans going back & forth on this game and a bit unsure as to what to expect. The one thing many fans will agree on is that the 2nd game between 2 teams in the same season is usually closer the 2nd time around. This is simply due to the fact each team has a better idea of what to expect and the players they'll be facing. So lets take a look a little further and see if we can come up with an idea of where this game is headed - Serra wins in a close one or the Lancer's D takes over capitalizing on Serra mistakes and SF takes game #2 in an upset. I’ll first look at Serra-VC games #1 & #2 to see how the games compared.
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photo courtesy Mercury News

A look at Serra-VC in game #1 vs game #2.

Game #1 - Serra wins 35-7: VC strikes first on a pass play to go up 7-0. Serra marches down field to tie the game 7-7 to end the 1rst quarter. 2nd Serra TD is a 57-yard pass from Bottari to Park to go up 13-7 after missed PAT. During the 2nd quarter Serra forced a VC fumble and grabbed an INT as well. Serra 13-7 at 1/2. In 3rd quarter Serra erupts for 22 points in 8 minutes: Kendrick 70 yard TD run, Kendrick 11 yard TD run and Vakalahi 14 yard TD run. Serra also completes a 2 point conversion to score 22 in the 3rd and make score 35-7.IN the 3rd and 4th quarters VC’s run game is ineffective and unable to get their pass game going. In the game VC has 3 turnovers on 2 INT's and a fumble to none for Serra. Serra wins by 28.

Game #2 - Serra wins 31-17: 1rst quarter Serra's Bottari hits Nunn with a 45 yard pass play to the VC 4 and then QB Bottari sneaks for the TD and 7-0 Serra. 2nd quarter Serra drives downfield and Kendricks finds a seam up the middle for a 14 yard TD & Serra 14-0. After VC QB Juan Turner misfires on a number of passes to open WR's Coach Machado pulls the senior QB in favor of little used soph back-up QB Cory Taylor. QB Taylor soon finds WR Alton Julian for a 32 yard TD and VC is on the board with score 14-7 Serra. On ensuing kickoff Kendricks runs the ball back 53 yards and 3 plays later Serra's Lahlouh plows in from the 5 for a TD to make it Serra 21-7. With 3 secs left in 1/2 Taylor connects with Alton Julian again for an 80- yard TD and 21-14 at the 1/2. Serra returned the opening kickoff into VC territory and just over a minute into the 3rd quarter Serra's Lahlouh runs it in from the 12 to make it Serra 28-14. Later in the 3rd quarter Serra's kicker Lewis makes a 34-yard FG to make the score 31-14 going into the 4th and final score. Serra has a fumble and 2 INT's while VC has a fumble and is intercepted 4 times by Serra. Serra wins by 17.

In both games the 3rd quarter was the turning point where Serra scored 22 in game 1 and 10 in game 2 while holding VC to 0. That was not the case in the Serra game vs St. Francis though and why game 2 between these 2 teams may be different.

Game #1 - Serra 31-21 over SF: This game early on looked like a runaway by Serra as the Lancer's had no answers defensively for the Padres. Bottari completed 2 long passes to Nunn and Villaroman before a short run made it 7-0 Serra. Bottari then hit Park on a 69 yard TD pass and 14-0 Serra. Next up a Bottari 64 yard pass play to Kendricks and Serra up 21-0 in the 2nd. SF drives and with 2 minutes left in 1/2 scores on a short pass to make it Serra 21-7 at 1/2. In the 3rd Serra's offense is not effective against SF and teams trade possessions. With 3 minutes left in 3rd SF drives and scores on a short run to make it Serra 21-13 after 2-point conversion fails. With 9 minutes to go in game SF scores again on a short rushing play & completes the 2-point conversion to tie game at 21 all. 2 minutes later Serra's Lewis kicks a 34 yard FG and Serra 24-21. Serra holds SF on next drive and after punt a short Serra pass to Park turns into a long TD run with 4 minutes remaining in game. Serra outgained SF in the air while SF had the advantage in rushing. There was 1 turnover by SF with an interception that did not result in points. Serra wins by 10.

So not much separated the teams and the difference was a few more big plays by Serra. These are 2 very good teams and there will be a lot of talent on the field Saturday night. With both teams motivated and not much separating them this game may come down to mistakes/penalties and the opposing teams ability to take advantage of those mistakes. The key as I see it is SF must slow down Serra’s offense. If Serra’s offense scores over 30 I see the Padres winning in a similar score to the last VC game which was 31-17.

Rmbr26 Prediction: Serra 31-24
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Serra is now 9-0 vs. WCAL teams in 2017. How hungry can the Padres be to dispatch the Lancers one more time (the fourth time in just two seasons, by the way)? Going 10-0 vs. league foes in one season would be unprecedented for a Serra team. SF appears to be primed and ready for what would be an upset _ but not an upset of major proportions at all. The Lancers, with their roster of players from all over Silicon Valley and the East Bay (25 different cities are represented), match up very well vs. Serra, especially without the mammoth Mafi to stuff the SF running game.
 
[B]colhenrylives[/B] said:
Serra is now 9-0 vs. WCAL teams in 2017. How hungry can the Padres be to dispatch the Lancers one more time (the fourth time in just two seasons, by the way)? Going 10-0 vs. league foes in one season would be unprecedented for a Serra team. SF appears to be primed and ready for what would be an upset _ but not an upset of major proportions at all. The Lancers, with their roster of players from all over Silicon Valley and the East Bay (25 different cities are represented), match up very well vs. Serra, especially without the mammoth Mafi to stuff the SF running game.
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So for the record you're going with SF over Serra?
 
Rmbr26 said:
So for the record you're going with SF over Serra?
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Yes. When the season began, I had SF winning the WCAL. I was incorrect. Not unusual. I picked Dewey over Truman, after all. But I remain very impressed with SF's far-flung collection of Bay Area talent. And the Lancers' coaching is outstanding as well. The law of averages would indicate that going 10-0 vs. the WCAL and beating SF four times in 13 months will finally come into play at this point. If you want a score, I will wuss out and weasel a bit: SF 28, Serra 27. I still think Dewey got hosed by the refs in 1948, by the way.
 
Rmbr26 said:
Anyway its of interest to players and their families and to answer kshepps question its usually released sometime in December OR after all league teams have completed their seasons'. The league is smart enough not to release their league MVP and MVP's by position too soon in event a Serra, SF or VC went to state and made some choices look foolish.

As for S.I. each team depending on record will have a handful of choices at the coaches discretion and being a senior seems to be extremely helpful. I would think both Woodruff and Katz are shoe-ins as 2 standouts from the S.I. team. Katz was extremely fun to watch scrambling and could easily fit in as one of the 4-5 QB's they show on 1rst 2 teams. Likewise for Woodruff esp. being a 2-way player with very good stats on both sides of the ball. Wide Receiver position is loaded this season in WCAL with 6-8 very good ones, but kshepps says Woodruff has stats to be near the top.
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Not sure how choices in all-league make anyone look foolish. All the players are supposed to be submitted prior to ccs playoffs and cover only the performance in the league. In the past, the top team gets 8 x 1st team slots, second place gets 7, etc. They dont average ties, so if multiple teams are tied 1st, they would all get 8 slots. Each team gets 3 x 2nd team slots.
 
[B]colhenrylives[/B] said:
Yes. When the season began, I had SF winning the WCAL. I was incorrect. Not unusual. I picked Dewey over Truman, after all. But I remain very impressed with SF's far-flung collection of Bay Area talent. And the Lancers' coaching is outstanding as well. The law of averages would indicate that going 10-0 vs. the WCAL and beating SF four times in 13 months will finally come into play at this point. If you want a score, I will wuss out and weasel a bit: SF 28, Serra 27. I still think Dewey got hosed by the refs in 1948, by the way.
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Yes part of me is saying the Lancer's are primed for this game & confidant after dominating a good Aragon team. As well how motivated can Serra be without a "revenge factor"? I also remind myself of 32 years of "The Curse" and Serra winning 4 in a row would be unprecedented vs the Lancers. In the end I come back to the "variables" and game to game statistics and the system Coach Walsh has in place. Here you go before I head out to work.

How I see Serra-SF Game #2
2 seasoned QB’s with big game experience. Serra with the highest scoring offense in school history that set a WCAL league record for points scored this season in league play. Serra’s Defense is also among the 3 stingiest in school history. SF is a solid team all the way around and had they won the first game vs Serra they would be league Co-Champs. That however is not the case as this is not just another “good Serra team” but possibly the best to come out of Serra. So this game should clear up the matter once and for all. If Serra can win over a very good VC team twice and similarly defeat a very good SF team [that just dispatched Aragon 42-7] then yes, Serra is “as advertised”. If SF wins the rematch then this Serra team still goes down as one of the best, but not “the best”. A lot at stake for both teams.

QB = slight edge Serra
RB = even
WR = edge Serra
Defense = even
Kicker = even
Special Teams Receiving – Edge Serra
Specials Teams Defending – SF

Difference = 1 score+ Serra
 
Expect Serra to win by 14-21 Points. The Serra offense is peaking at the right time with a great play caller. SF is very Generic on defense and will be exploited. Serra Defense will get enough stops and the Padres will roll into Regional play.
 
I think the Serra Defense will be the biggest factor here. I do not expect the defense to allow more than 2 scores. The extra day of preparation, 2nd meeting and predictable Humpt Dumpty Lancer play calling will leave SF in a real bind. This game won't be close. Serra 42-14.
 
Tough to argue with you folks. For me, it's more of a percentages sort of thing. It's time for SF to capture a game vs. Serra. Going 0-4 in 13 months vs. the San Mateans seems decidedly out of the ordinary, especially when the talent levels are so close.
 
[B]colhenrylives[/B] said:
Tough to argue with you folks. For me, it's more of a percentages sort of thing. It's time for SF to capture a game vs. Serra. Going 0-4 in 13 months vs. the San Mateans seems decidedly out of the ordinary, especially when the talent levels are so close.
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The talent levels may be close, but Serra has the decided edge in several categories. If the game 1 win by Serra was "lucky" then SF should prevail with this much on the line. I think this is Serra's year and none of the games won this season were by luck or a single big play.

Last season Serra lost to VC and won by 1-point in O/T over SF. This season Serra is 3-0 to date with the closest game being 2 scores vs SF. I'll be honestly surprised if SF takes down this Serra team.
 
Back from Las Vegas just in time for some football. I think this game could be very close. Serra burned SF on some plays early and at the last part of the game. They fill some gaps and reduce mistakes and could be closer. Going to Salinas v Milpitas tonight and will try to male Serra v SF tomorrrow.
 
The best element of the Serra Padre Offense I've seen since Walsh took the helm is the screen & swing pass. They perform that play not only more flawlessly than I've seen any other team but also at the right time. They burned SF bad with that play last game, if SF can limit that play, I think they can keep it a low scoring affair.

St. Francis of late has upped their passing game. Seems that a lot of teams are spying Darrell Page and SF is burning teams that load the box and using play-action and the Tight End to go effect. Boy oh boy tomorrow is going to be fun.
 
2 players on Serra who seemed to have "stepped up" their games the last couple are Lahlouh on both O & D and Sanchez playing one of the corners - both played very well vs VC and see how they perform against SF the 2nd time around.

Colhenry - did any of the JV's from Serra's league champs get any playing time last week that you know of?
 
Rmbr26 said:
2 players on Serra who seemed to have "stepped up" their games the last couple are Lahlouh on both O & D and Sanchez playing one of the corners - both played very well vs VC and see how they perform against SF the 2nd time around.

Colhenry - did any of the JV's from Serra's league champs get any playing time last week that you know of?
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Oh, my, yes. No.45, a 6-5, long-armed defensive end, was a serious factor vs. VC. He is clearly a varsity player. He got at least 25 snaps last week. Interesting that he remained on the JV's throughout the regular season.
 
Shocking that game I just watched had Salinas upsetting unbeaten Milpitas who was 12-0 & in some polls ranked higher than VC or SF. Shocking as Milpitas shut-out Salinas 27-0 in regular season losing tonite by 25-18 to the Salinas Cowboys. Milpitas looked flat & Salinas def looked like they came to play.

Hope both Serra & HMB read this post...
 
I’m like SF in this one. I’m with the Colonel I think the law of averages is on their side.

And Dewy / Truman? Holy crap. I think you and Muddenguts gotta be the AARP representatives around here.
 
colhenrylives said:
Oh, my, yes. No.45, a 6-5, long-armed defensive end, was a serious factor vs. VC. He is clearly a varsity player. He got at least 25 snaps last week. Interesting that he remained on the JV's throughout the regular season.
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I believe that he injured his knee last year and actually didn’t start playing this season until game 3 or 4.
 
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