WCAL Football 2019-20 - NCP's All NorCal Team + SF Chron All Metro & Merc Teams
- Thread starter Rmbr26
- Start date
Yes VC's secondary is one of the 2 best in WCAL with the other being Serra's. I think both secondarys' will have their hands full with the WR's both teams have. I do think that it all comes down to Serra's O-Line and how they handle VC's D-line compared to last season's game. While St. Francis is down considerably from last season I looked a their stats for their 28-7 loss to VC earlier this season. SF primarily a run team had by far their worst game of the year rushing for 26 yards with a 1.4 APC and the longest rush was 5 yards. Against De La Salle SF rushed for 103 yards with a 3.6 APC.
VC is a scary good team to run against.
VC is a scary good team to run against.
VC is tough to score against in any way, shape or form. That defense has studs all over the field.
As well it should all VC fans. Just look back at the CCS Championship game last year. The Lancers missed their final PAT in OT and then for the game, VC PAT was money. A week later at DO the Lancers had kicking issues and lost by a point. It's getting to be that time of the season where every point can be the difference in moving on or going home. Tough loss for VC for sure.
VC's kicker Lucas Ramirez was the best kicker last season as well as this season in the WCAL. In the first game in which VC won over Wilcox by 23-13 the VC kicker made 3 FG's of which the longest was 43 yards and so accounted for 9 of VC's points. Without those FG's the "adjusted" score was 14-13 VC over Wilcox - a very different game.
As for X-Factor I don;t know that this game will be determined by an extra point or FG and will stick with Serra's QB Daylin McLemore as my "X-Factor". I'll go with QB over Kicker as the more valuable player in this contest.
In a head to head comparison of kickers Ramirez was hands-down the best last season making 7/7 FG's while Serra attempted just 2 and missed both. For this season VC's Ramirez was 5/6 with the long 43 while Serra's Damon Lewis was 1/1 with a 22 yarder. Serra's Damon Lewis is a valuable player to the Padre team as being the kicker for KO's, PAT's, FG's as well as being the punter since his frosh year - a 4-year varsity player. What makes Damon more valuable is he has developed into one of the better players in Serra's D-secondary.
One more important note: VC uses a different player "Cuddie" for kick-off's who kicks 50% of them into the end zone for TB's. Serra's Lewis also averages 50% of his KO's as touch-backs which will be important in this game. While the computers have Serra as a slight favorite I would give VC the edge simply based upon last years' game with many of those same players returning + VC having the best defense in the CCS.
As for X-Factor I don;t know that this game will be determined by an extra point or FG and will stick with Serra's QB Daylin McLemore as my "X-Factor". I'll go with QB over Kicker as the more valuable player in this contest.
In a head to head comparison of kickers Ramirez was hands-down the best last season making 7/7 FG's while Serra attempted just 2 and missed both. For this season VC's Ramirez was 5/6 with the long 43 while Serra's Damon Lewis was 1/1 with a 22 yarder. Serra's Damon Lewis is a valuable player to the Padre team as being the kicker for KO's, PAT's, FG's as well as being the punter since his frosh year - a 4-year varsity player. What makes Damon more valuable is he has developed into one of the better players in Serra's D-secondary.
One more important note: VC uses a different player "Cuddie" for kick-off's who kicks 50% of them into the end zone for TB's. Serra's Lewis also averages 50% of his KO's as touch-backs which will be important in this game. While the computers have Serra as a slight favorite I would give VC the edge simply based upon last years' game with many of those same players returning + VC having the best defense in the CCS.
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Those 5 linemen are my sons... 2 seniors, 2 sophomores and 1 freshmen. They couldn't be any prouder to LANCERS!
Great breakdown as always Rmbr26. Its eerily similar to last years matchup and VC is not about to change a thing. I think McLemore is one factor that slightly alters the run pass situation when you dial up pressure but VC has been outstanding in the box and in coverage.
I think Serra is the underdog in this one if they dont free their athletes in space. Otherwise same approach, same results.
A few things I think the Padres should try;
Simplify your defense, just gap man football, Nusi is not a pass rusher vs. VC, he is 100% off tackle run wrecker. Forget the exotics, this is old school football, point of attack, guard read game.
Commit 8 to the box to limit the run every play, or until taylors proves he can beat single high consistently. They held the lancers to under 150 sometimes going 5 down, that's the recipe.
You can't run on VC, that's the game they want. Dont give it to them...
Run empty sets at Valley. Use your passing game as short runs to move the chains, spread them out to get your speedster in space. McLemore should be your lead rusher in this game.
As mentioned the kicker is hurt. Why not run gate every extra point try you get, VC backup might miss a few PAT's. Could be touchdown difference in points if this game goes high.
This game has me drooling. It's going to be the game of the year in my opinion. Winner is the odds on favorite to face a folsom or SJS D2 in regionals.
Both Valley and Serra would be dangerous in a regional. That said Valley is a true nightmare for teams outside the WCAL, that almost exclusively face spread.
I think Serra is the underdog in this one if they dont free their athletes in space. Otherwise same approach, same results.
A few things I think the Padres should try;
Simplify your defense, just gap man football, Nusi is not a pass rusher vs. VC, he is 100% off tackle run wrecker. Forget the exotics, this is old school football, point of attack, guard read game.
Commit 8 to the box to limit the run every play, or until taylors proves he can beat single high consistently. They held the lancers to under 150 sometimes going 5 down, that's the recipe.
You can't run on VC, that's the game they want. Dont give it to them...
Run empty sets at Valley. Use your passing game as short runs to move the chains, spread them out to get your speedster in space. McLemore should be your lead rusher in this game.
As mentioned the kicker is hurt. Why not run gate every extra point try you get, VC backup might miss a few PAT's. Could be touchdown difference in points if this game goes high.
This game has me drooling. It's going to be the game of the year in my opinion. Winner is the odds on favorite to face a folsom or SJS D2 in regionals.
Both Valley and Serra would be dangerous in a regional. That said Valley is a true nightmare for teams outside the WCAL, that almost exclusively face spread.
Now that's good stuff. Trying to be ultra-physical with VC is a formula for disaster.
Very Good Post Santa Ball & especially your first comment which I mentioned as well:
"Great breakdown as always Rmbr26. Its eerily similar to last years matchup and VC is not about to change a thing. I think McLemore is one factor that slightly alters the run pass situation when you dial up pressure but VC has been outstanding in the box and in coverage."
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Much of both these teams is the same as last year with the one major component being Serra's QB McLemore & whether or not this is enough to change the way these teams match up remains to be seen. So to encapsulate what I said in my previous post: Serra did not match up well with VC in 2018 and this season the 2 teams are very much the same with the exception of the Serra QB Daylin McLemore. While a number of players on each team are new, the "core players" from last season are essentially the same on both teams. The 2 biggest changes are Serra's QB and VC's frosh sensation Dickey. Otherwise we're looking at very similar versions of last seasons teams. The other aspect Santa Ball alluded to is the game plan by coaches. VC would very much like the game to follow last season's scenario while the Serra coaching staff must dial up a very different approach. Running directly at VC's formidable line & gaining zero as happened in last seasons' game would again be the Padres demise. If VC's D knows Serra cannot run on them then advantage shifts to VC's D coming full-on to the QB on every play & advantage VC. Serra's coaching staff has a real challenge designing a game plan against one of the best D's in NorCal.
"Great breakdown as always Rmbr26. Its eerily similar to last years matchup and VC is not about to change a thing. I think McLemore is one factor that slightly alters the run pass situation when you dial up pressure but VC has been outstanding in the box and in coverage."
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Much of both these teams is the same as last year with the one major component being Serra's QB McLemore & whether or not this is enough to change the way these teams match up remains to be seen. So to encapsulate what I said in my previous post: Serra did not match up well with VC in 2018 and this season the 2 teams are very much the same with the exception of the Serra QB Daylin McLemore. While a number of players on each team are new, the "core players" from last season are essentially the same on both teams. The 2 biggest changes are Serra's QB and VC's frosh sensation Dickey. Otherwise we're looking at very similar versions of last seasons teams. The other aspect Santa Ball alluded to is the game plan by coaches. VC would very much like the game to follow last season's scenario while the Serra coaching staff must dial up a very different approach. Running directly at VC's formidable line & gaining zero as happened in last seasons' game would again be the Padres demise. If VC's D knows Serra cannot run on them then advantage shifts to VC's D coming full-on to the QB on every play & advantage VC. Serra's coaching staff has a real challenge designing a game plan against one of the best D's in NorCal.
...not to mention a Serra defensive game plan to deal with that huge VC offensive line...VC dominated the Padres on both sides of the line in 2018...it was very one-sided both ways...again, if Serra's OL and DL can't hold up for four quarters, it's going to be goodnight, nurse...and extremely unattractive again...
WCAL Football 2019-20
St. Francis 2-5 vs Mitty 5-2
Did anyone out there remotely think the formidable Lancers of the last several years would be 2-5 at this juncture?
If SF loses to Mitty the Lancers will have lost 3 in a row in WCAL league play - something unthinkable during discussions pre-season. Its not that the Lancers are a bad team this season its just that, well they're not good enough to compete against the better teams this season as we're accustomed to seeing. This seasons' Lancer team is young and surely will be better next season IMO. SF has a good QB in Ryan Daly however he missed several games due to injury. So SF is not as good on either side of the ball this season. Mitty is a bit of a mystery at this point having barely gotten by Riordan 24-21 one week while taking Serra down to the wire 35-29 the following week. Mitty has played very well at times with the exception of a poor effort in an ugly loss to Marin Catholic by 35-9. In terms of ratings & rankings S.I. is now ranked the #3 team of the 8 WCAL teams. SF is rated just above Mitty in a number of rankings polls I've seen based mostly on SF's very tough pre-season schedule with DLS and Corona Del Mar which accounted for 2 of their 5 losses - has they been other CCS teams outside the WCAL then SF could realistically be 4-3 currently.
As for this weeks game I would give a definite edge to the Monarchs. The Monarchs have a more diverse offense as shown against Serra and I do not know that the Lancers can outscore Mitty with Shamir Bey leading them as QB.
The computers have Mitty as a 1-point favorite so essentially a toss-up. The Monarchs also have Reymello Murphy who is one of the better players I've seen so far in WCAL play - look for Murphy to have a big game vs SF.
Prediction: Mitty 27-21
St. Francis 2-5 vs Mitty 5-2
Did anyone out there remotely think the formidable Lancers of the last several years would be 2-5 at this juncture?
If SF loses to Mitty the Lancers will have lost 3 in a row in WCAL league play - something unthinkable during discussions pre-season. Its not that the Lancers are a bad team this season its just that, well they're not good enough to compete against the better teams this season as we're accustomed to seeing. This seasons' Lancer team is young and surely will be better next season IMO. SF has a good QB in Ryan Daly however he missed several games due to injury. So SF is not as good on either side of the ball this season. Mitty is a bit of a mystery at this point having barely gotten by Riordan 24-21 one week while taking Serra down to the wire 35-29 the following week. Mitty has played very well at times with the exception of a poor effort in an ugly loss to Marin Catholic by 35-9. In terms of ratings & rankings S.I. is now ranked the #3 team of the 8 WCAL teams. SF is rated just above Mitty in a number of rankings polls I've seen based mostly on SF's very tough pre-season schedule with DLS and Corona Del Mar which accounted for 2 of their 5 losses - has they been other CCS teams outside the WCAL then SF could realistically be 4-3 currently.
As for this weeks game I would give a definite edge to the Monarchs. The Monarchs have a more diverse offense as shown against Serra and I do not know that the Lancers can outscore Mitty with Shamir Bey leading them as QB.
The computers have Mitty as a 1-point favorite so essentially a toss-up. The Monarchs also have Reymello Murphy who is one of the better players I've seen so far in WCAL play - look for Murphy to have a big game vs SF.
Prediction: Mitty 27-21
Lancers win this one. With a Bay Area-wide roster of just over 60 players, they are due.
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WCAL Football 2019-20 This Week's Upcoming Game Projections
Friday 10/25:
Mitty 27-21 over Lancers
Valley Christian 41-7 over Bells
Sat. 10/26
Serra over SHC 42-6
S.I. 35-14 over Crusader
The only game with much intrigue is Monarchs vs Lancers with Mitty winning 2 of their last 3 games with a close loss to Serra. SF has won 1 of their last 3 games with a win over SHC and 2 losses to Serra & S.I. both by 2 scores. Mitty has the league's leading QB in Shamir Bey who leads all WCAL QB's by a large margin in passing yards. SF appears to have a slightly better D, but if Mitty can dominate time of possession early the Lancers could wear down. Monarchs = better offense while SF = better defense. As colhenry mentioned SF also has a large advantage in roster depth which could have some effect on special teams play with more fresh players. Can Lancers contain Shamir Bey & the Monarch "O" or will the Lancer "O" have a break-out game and outscore the Monarchs? Either way I think this game will be quite entertaining.
* Rmbr26 has projected Mitty 27-21 over SF [anyone else think the Monarchs are 6 points better than Lancers?]
** Rmbr26 is 31/37 so far on WCAL games this season.
Friday 10/25:
Mitty 27-21 over Lancers
Valley Christian 41-7 over Bells
Sat. 10/26
Serra over SHC 42-6
S.I. 35-14 over Crusader
The only game with much intrigue is Monarchs vs Lancers with Mitty winning 2 of their last 3 games with a close loss to Serra. SF has won 1 of their last 3 games with a win over SHC and 2 losses to Serra & S.I. both by 2 scores. Mitty has the league's leading QB in Shamir Bey who leads all WCAL QB's by a large margin in passing yards. SF appears to have a slightly better D, but if Mitty can dominate time of possession early the Lancers could wear down. Monarchs = better offense while SF = better defense. As colhenry mentioned SF also has a large advantage in roster depth which could have some effect on special teams play with more fresh players. Can Lancers contain Shamir Bey & the Monarch "O" or will the Lancer "O" have a break-out game and outscore the Monarchs? Either way I think this game will be quite entertaining.
* Rmbr26 has projected Mitty 27-21 over SF [anyone else think the Monarchs are 6 points better than Lancers?]
** Rmbr26 is 31/37 so far on WCAL games this season.
You are being too nice with that Serra score Rmbr26. This game is an opportunity for individual WCAL records to fall. You may see 7 rushing touchdowns by one player. You may see the sacks in one game record fall. You may see most interceptions by one player in one game fall. You thought VC was running it up? Introducing (drumroll...) Serra! I predict 77-0.
Just for fun, the running clock should start immediately and SH should be able to commit offensive and defensive holding without penalty.
Despite Rmbr26's more than impressive season record I will go with the SF. The Lancers backs are against the wall. This will be Ryan Dalys second game back and I think he will come up big. He has done it before. I just did the math and going against Rmbr26 only gives my pick a 16% chance of victory. Oh well, sometimes you gotta say ........... !
While the Padres have the ability to certainly score 77 [or more} against an obviously over-matched Irish squad that will not happen - or my name isn't Rmbr26.
Coach Walsh is well liked, has class, integrity and is simply put "one of the good guys" to try to run it up like that.
77-0 indeed would certainly be "cringe-worthy" [as Elaine on Seinfeld would say - at least I think that's what she said??]
Coach Walsh is well liked, has class, integrity and is simply put "one of the good guys" to try to run it up like that.
77-0 indeed would certainly be "cringe-worthy" [as Elaine on Seinfeld would say - at least I think that's what she said??]
Oops! sorry as my wife just corrected me - Seinfeld episode had something to do with a sponge of sorts....
To put into perspective Serra scored the school record just 2 years ago in their NorCal regional playoff after winning CCS Open. I've watched that game a few times in which Serra won 76-43 over undefeated Tulare Union with an amazing RB named Kazmeir Allen who broke the National HS season record for TD's with 72 [yes 72] scored his senior season. Kazmeir would then go to UCLA on scholarship. As a freshman Allen saw limited action in a number of games with 30 carries total. He is listed on UCLA's track team, but apparently is currently injured for football.
The jump from HS to Div I is not to be taken lightly as most find out quickly....
To put into perspective Serra scored the school record just 2 years ago in their NorCal regional playoff after winning CCS Open. I've watched that game a few times in which Serra won 76-43 over undefeated Tulare Union with an amazing RB named Kazmeir Allen who broke the National HS season record for TD's with 72 [yes 72] scored his senior season. Kazmeir would then go to UCLA on scholarship. As a freshman Allen saw limited action in a number of games with 30 carries total. He is listed on UCLA's track team, but apparently is currently injured for football.
The jump from HS to Div I is not to be taken lightly as most find out quickly....
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[B said:
dcpanda - checking numerous sources some say he 's out [possibly injured?] while others say he is no longer on the roster. I went directly to the UCLA roster and no mention of him. Check UCLA track and yet there he appears [?].
Very fast though not very big for Div I and may be that Kazmeir is following in the shadow of one Jahvid Best who was as fast and slightly bigger. Jahvid played well at Cal-Berkeley incurring serveal concussions incl the well known leap into the end zone and then several more including a career ending one with the Detroit Lions. Best was undersized at the Div I level and even more so in the NFL and Kazmeir Allen is a similar story. The RB position has t o be the most punishing position in FB and esp at the higher levels. Hope things work out for both Best & Allen in the future - both very exciting players to watch at their best.
OK thx dcpanda as just saw & hopefully his injury is not too serious and he gets additional playing time this season.
Kazmeir Allen was blazing fast in that Serra-Tulare Union regional playoff game in 2017 during Serra's state title run.
In that game Allen rushed for 347 yards & 2 TD's against the Padres. The teams traded TD's back & forth early and Tulare Union was about to take the lead on a Kazmeir Allen kick-off return. Kazmeir Allen was all but gone and Serra's #19 Brendon Carbullido dove and just got enough of his leg to trip him up around the 16 yard line. Serra would hold Tulare Union who came away with nothing on the drive and it seemed to be the turning point of the game.
Here's a brief video with some of the game highlights if anyone wants to see the fastest HS RB in NorCal 2 seasons ago.
https://www.fresnobee.com/sports/high-school/article188939869.html
Kazmeir Allen was blazing fast in that Serra-Tulare Union regional playoff game in 2017 during Serra's state title run.
In that game Allen rushed for 347 yards & 2 TD's against the Padres. The teams traded TD's back & forth early and Tulare Union was about to take the lead on a Kazmeir Allen kick-off return. Kazmeir Allen was all but gone and Serra's #19 Brendon Carbullido dove and just got enough of his leg to trip him up around the 16 yard line. Serra would hold Tulare Union who came away with nothing on the drive and it seemed to be the turning point of the game.
Here's a brief video with some of the game highlights if anyone wants to see the fastest HS RB in NorCal 2 seasons ago.
https://www.fresnobee.com/sports/high-school/article188939869.html
VC vs Bells
Once VC puts the game away... probably mid second quarter or start of 3rd
It would be smart of Coach Amarillas to pull his starters and save them for
the playin game next week vs SHC. Bells may be in for a tough time next week vs Irish in SF .
If SHC can beat Bells and then Riordan they are in Playoffs.
SHC will be fired up for their first win and Bells are exhausted
Once VC puts the game away... probably mid second quarter or start of 3rd
It would be smart of Coach Amarillas to pull his starters and save them for
the playin game next week vs SHC. Bells may be in for a tough time next week vs Irish in SF .
If SHC can beat Bells and then Riordan they are in Playoffs.
SHC will be fired up for their first win and Bells are exhausted
[B said:
Least amount of wins I remember a WCAL team having and making post season play was St. Ignatius in 2013 with a regular season record of 3-7 overall and 2-5 in WCAL league play. S.I. that season though was quite a bit better than this current SHC team and 4 of the regular season losses were by 1-score or less. There were many jokes at S.I.'s expense that season incl. after 8 games & because most competitive that "S.I. just may be the best 1-7 team in the nation". St. Ignatius got into D-III CCS playoffs and won the first 2 rounds beating Gilroy and then Burlingame by wide margins before falling to Westmont by 41-35 in the championship giving S.I. a final record of 4-9 on the season.
At this point based on performance it would be a major upset for SHC to win over either Riordan or Bells let alone both teams.
But, they might have been the best 4-9 team in the nation that year. Certainly in the top 10.
Let’s do a “What if”..
What if the 49ers ran the ball 80% of the time and only picked up 2 first downs in the first half against Seattle. Then, came out in the 3rd down by 40+ pts and continued to run the ball instead of passing. Would Shanahan be fired midway thru the 3rd qtr, the next day, or be allowed to coach the team another 10 years?
It happened just last year - as Aragon went 2-8 (2-3 in league to finish 4th in the PAL Bay to grab the last AQ spot) and then they lost 34-13 in the first round of the play-offs to St. Francis to end 2-9.
With the new bonus point system in place this year the bottom level WCAL teams receive 8 extra CCS scheduling points that is the equivalent of adding 4 wins to their record compared to teams in other A leagues like the Gabilan and Mt. Hamilton leagues. Lower level Deanza and PAL Bay teams right now are getting 3 extra bonus points.
Intriguing scenario:
- SHC loses to Serra; beats the Bells and loses to Riordan and finishes (1-9; 1-7)
- Bellarmine loses to VC, SF and SHC (2-8; 1-7)
- Riordan loses to SI and SF; beats SHC (3-7; 1-7)
- Does Riordan qualify for CCS? Or..
- If SHC beats the Bells and Riordan, it's the Irish going to CCS?
- Bells beat SHC, the Bells move on to CCS?
- Bellarmine (2-5 / 1-3) - VC, @SF, @SHC *defeated Riordan 28-27 DOT
- Riordan (2-5 / 0-4) - @SI, SF, SHC
- SHC (0-7 / 0-4) - @Serra, BCP, @AR
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...does someone out there have an aspirin?...my head hurts...the CCS playoff formula would stump a National Mert Scholar...PAL Booster has to be a charter member of Mensa...
S.I. lost to Aptos. The game was played at Westmont. The first game was vs. Christopher. That game was played at Gilroy. (Good old MaxPreps).
Thx Irish - as soon as I soon your post the long term memory jump-started and I do remember the Aptos championship game. As I remember S.I. had a chance to win in the game, but couldn't close them out. Wonder how I came up with locations instead of teams... what were we talking about??
