Excellent write-up as usual. A couple of other game plan considerations to think about are the fact that part of the reason for VC's success in limiting points is that they run a vanilla offense and rarely turn the ball over providing their opponents short fields or defensive scores. It will be interesting to see if the D coordinator turns up the pressure or is more patient and sees if they can get adequate pressure with their front four without blitzing. I think one of the key match-ups is to see if the Serra O-line can hold up and make VC blitz to create pressure or not. Serra has thrived on getting their weapons in space and forcing a missed tackle for big plays. VC may want to see if the young QB can execute 10-12 play drives and keep everything in front of them with adequate back end support.
While the WCAL championship is the big prize for the winner. It is interesting to note that if Serra losses they may still be the number 1 seed for the play-offs. Here is what it looks like if Serra losses to VC and both teams win their final game.
Serra Points - 18 points for 9 wins, 10 points for schedule, 4 points for playing conference champions (Pittsburg, Menlo-Atherton, St. Mary's, Valley Christian), and 10 bonus points for play top 100 teams (Pittsburg, Menlo-Atherton, St. Mary's, VC, and Mitty-SI winner) and 2 bonus points for playing a team ranked between 101-150 (SI-Mitty loser, St Francis.) and 39 points for being the #2 ranked team in CCS - total = 83 points
VC Points - 20 points for 10 wins, 10 points for schedule, 3.5 conference championship points (2.5 for winning WCAL, Wilcox - with potential for another 0.5 points if Pleasant Valle upsets Chico this week), 6 point for playing top 100 teams (Serra, Wilcox, SI-Mitty Winner) 3 points for playing a team ranked between 101-150 (Si-Mitty loser, Saint Francis and Clovis West) and 40 points by being the top ranked CCS team = 82.5 points
The two key games are Lincoln VS St. Mary's this week where Lincoln is a one point favorite, but St. Mary's has a higher calpreps ranking. If St. Mary's losses Serra will lose two points (one for conference champion and one bonus point as St. Mary's will most likely drop from the top 100 to the 101-150 group. If Lincoln wins Serra will be a #2 seed in the CCS play-offs.
The Other key game is Pleasant Valley vs Chico where Chico is projected to win by 11. A win by Pleasant Valley would give them at least a share of the title. Depending on other games this could be co-championship which would give VC 0.5 points and the CCS #1 seed (regardless of the Lincoln - St. Mary's result) or Tri-Champion which would give VC only 0.33 points and leave them as the #2 seed if St. Mary's beats Lincoln.