Looking ahead to the start of the 2015 season the WCAL looks similar to the start of the 2014 season and should once again be highly competitive & equally difficult to predict. Last season in 2015 Serra and VC shared the league title before both lost in the CCS Open Division Playoffs, with VC losing to Bellarmine 21-18 in an upset after beating the Bells 42-17 during regular season & Serra being shut-out by Los Gatos 28-0 in the opening round. In this sense both Serra & VC ended their seasons on a disappointing note. The Bells picked to finish 5th or 6th in league with a young under-sized team surprised everyone finishing 10-3 losing to Sacred Heart Prep in the Open Championship. As with 2014 several of the top tier WCAL teams are picked among the top 10 teams in the entire CCS.
Here is how the 2014 WCAL season ended for the 3 divisions of Varsity, JV & Frosh in order of overall finish:
Varsity: Serra, VC, Bells, St. Francis, Mitty, SI, Riordan & SHC.
Junior Varsity: VC, SF, Bells, SI, SHC, Serra, Mitty, Riordan
Frosh: VC, Serra, Bells, Mitty, SHC, SF, SI, Riordan
Based upon the finishes above in the 3 divisions this is how the teams appear to match up at the varsity level for the 2015 season:
VC, Bells, Serra, SF, Mitty, SI, SHC, Riordan
It does not appear that the forecast looks much different from how the 2014 season ended. However as I said the WCAL is difficult to predict and there are always some surprises & whether of not there will be a dominant team this season or 2-3-4 teams battling it out for the top spot remains to be seen. As you will see from the computer generated stats & adjustments below the forecast looks to be quite a bit different than what I am initially coming up with from the team finishes by division.
2014 Ending Season Records, Final Power Rankings & 2015 Projected STARTING Rankings:
Bellarmine: record 10-3, 2014 ranking 42.8, 2015 Starting ranking of 42.4 [2015 = Minus .4]
Serra: record 7-4, 2014 ranking 37.4, 2015 Starting ranking of 42.5 [2015 = Plus 5.1]
St. Francis: record 9-4, 2014 ranking 36.9, 2015 Starting ranking of 37.5 [2015 = Plus .6]
Valley Christian: record 9-3, 2014 ranking of 41.6, Starting ranking of 31.9 [2015 = Minus 9.7]
Mitty: record 8-5, 2014 ranking of 34.6, 2015 Starting ranking of 21.7 [2015 = Minus 12.9]
St. Ignatius: record 7-6, 2014 ranking of 32.3, 2015 Starting ranking of 21.2 [2015 = Minus 11.1]
SHC: record 3-7, 2014 ranking 18.8, 2015 Starting ranking of 18.3 [2015 = Minus .5]
Riordan: record 1-9, ranking of 15.2, 2015 Starting ranking of 17.9 [2015 = Plus 2.7]
Rankings/ratings conclusion: Bells, SF & SHC all remain about the same while Serra shows marked improvement while VC, Mitty & SI all show considerable drops in team strength overall. Riordan shows a medium gain and is rated about even with SHC and both teams are close in rating to SI & Mitty this season to start. As with my order of finish above here is the rankings projected finish:
Serra, Bells, SF, VC, Mitty, SI, SHC, Riordan
The last 4 teams are the same in both my projection and the computer projection. The difference at the top is the Bells & Serra will battle for top spot while VC struggles and SF shows marked improvement and may challenge for the top spot as well. It is looking like a drop off year for SI and there very well could be a shake-up of the bottom 4 teams in the league.
2014 Season in review - High's & Low's by Team:
Bellarmine: mostly a season of high's for the surprising Bells picked to be among the lower tier teams and finished at 10-3 as the most successful WCAL overall in the CCS. A young team & under-sized the Bells won games as they usually do, with excellent play calling, great play execution and limited penalties. The low for the team was a humbling 42-17 loss to VC during regular season which the Bells reversed in a surprising tough win of 21-18 over VC in the opening round of the playoffs. The high for the season was yet another upset in a huge 9-6 victory over an undefeated & massive Milpitas team, which was many fans pick to take the Open Division. The Bells fell short in the CCS Championship by 14-0 to SHP who seemed to beat the Bells at their own game, simply by limiting mistakes and great play execution. The season was an overall success with most of the Bells talent returning for 2015.
Serra: a chaotic season of ups & downs for the Padres ending the legitimate season with a beat-down loss to Los Gatos by 28-0 on Serra's home turf and then a record setting punishment by out-going CCS commissioner Nancy Lazenby-Blaser for the Padres forfeiting a scrimmage consolation game against Milpitas. The punishment of Serra's highly respected program is even more baffling in that the consolation bracket games were abolished after 1 season & universally criticized as simply a terrible idea to generate more funds for the CCS. As for the regular season which actually counted Serra finished 7-4 [no one outside the CCS considered the consolation games as legitimate games & therefore they do not appear on Serra or any of the teams overall records]. Serra started the season with a new 15 year old sophomore QB named Siteleki Nunn going up against DLS. The game ended 41-13 DLS, however the young QB for Serra threw 2 TD passes against DLS which is something not many teams were able to accomplish during the 2014 season. Serra had 2 additional losses to Sherman-Oaks & Mitty in which the Padres were plagued by mistakes & turn-overs. When the Padres play well they played very well & when they fumbled, threw INT's and racked up penalties the results were somewhat predictable. With returning skill players and hopefully a better handle on the ball this season Serra should be a legitimate contender for the league title.
Valley Christian: the Warrior's were somewhat of a disappointment and a mystery at the same time for 2014. VC was a big physical team with the best core of 4 RB's in NorCal & a Division 1 WR in Collin Johnson. It appeared early on that VC would simply run the ball & no one might be able to stop them.
VC first stumbled in a 31-17 loss to Milpitas which at the time seemed like an upset, prior tofans realizing how good Milpitas was. VC later lost to Serra by a similar deficit and then was upended by the Bells in a rematch game in which the Bells shocked VC & ended their season. VC again will be big physically and has some talent at RB and returns one tall & fast WR by the name of Collin Johnson. VC will need better play calling and QB play in 2014 and overall better execution on offense. VC's Defense played well, but at times was placed on the field too many times after 3 & outs by their offense. VC must be able to pass if to have a successful 2015 season.
St. Francis: the Lancers were a highly competitive team in 2014 who were perhaps one step away from contending for the league title finishing at 9-4 overall and capturing a lower division CCS title easily. SF stumbled early on vs a good Palma team & had close losses to Bells & Serra. Like several other WCAL teams the SF Lancer team was solid on Defense, but lacking at times on offense with inconsistent play. The Lancer's high for the season was the Division II CCS Cahmpionship win with a convincing 17-7 win over MItty.
Mitty: the Monarch's finished 2014 with a respectable 8-5 record losing in the CCS div. II Championship to their nemesis St. Francis. Mitty started the season with a solid win over a tough Pittsburgh team by 13-7 and later upset Serra with a solid 27-14 win over Serra in which Mitty dominated. Mitty had a surprising number of close losses in their season which could have easily ended at 10-3. Their best game was the win over Serra and their low point the 2nd loss of the season to SF in the playoffs.
St. Ignatius: the Wildcats in all perspective simply had a tough year in 2014. Had some plays & calls went their way possibly their season could have ended on a different note. SI had numerous close losses which is what separates the best teams from the rest. SI's high point easily was the great win over St. Mary's Stockton, a highly talented team which I picked to beat SI by 7-14 points. There was little to separate SI from the top teams in the WCAL with close losses to the Bells 31-28, Valley Christian 17-15 and Mitty 17-14.
SI featured QB Ryan Hagfeldt as one of the best QB's in the CCS and they were certainly one of the most entertaining teams to watch. SI for the 2nd year in a row suffered a close heart-breaking loss in the Division III Championship to Aptos. SI will be solid for 2015, but Hagfeldt will be difficult to replace.
SHC: the Irish this season will be in a log-jam amongst 3-4 teams to see whom emerges possibly as a legitimate top tier team who can upset one or more of the perennial powers of the WCAL. The Irish have the athletes and in 2014 came close to several WCAL victories each time falling short. An extremely weak pre-season did not help prepare SHC for the rigors of the WCAL. The low point would be the 2nd consecutive loss to arch-rival Riordan while the high point would be the 2 close losses to SF 27-21 & Mitty 33-27.
Riordan: the Crusader's are inching closer this season in WCAL with a quality returning QB and a number of other good athletes. While the SHC win was huge for Riordan their high point was the near upset in a loss to SF by 25-23 in which the Crusader's almost pulled out the win. Also as I've mentioned was the narrow 13-7 loss to eventual CCS Open Champ SHP.
Upcoming: further predictions & team by team assessments of strengths & weaknesses while taking a look at early pre-season opponents & what to expect.
Here is how the 2014 WCAL season ended for the 3 divisions of Varsity, JV & Frosh in order of overall finish:
Varsity: Serra, VC, Bells, St. Francis, Mitty, SI, Riordan & SHC.
Junior Varsity: VC, SF, Bells, SI, SHC, Serra, Mitty, Riordan
Frosh: VC, Serra, Bells, Mitty, SHC, SF, SI, Riordan
Based upon the finishes above in the 3 divisions this is how the teams appear to match up at the varsity level for the 2015 season:
VC, Bells, Serra, SF, Mitty, SI, SHC, Riordan
It does not appear that the forecast looks much different from how the 2014 season ended. However as I said the WCAL is difficult to predict and there are always some surprises & whether of not there will be a dominant team this season or 2-3-4 teams battling it out for the top spot remains to be seen. As you will see from the computer generated stats & adjustments below the forecast looks to be quite a bit different than what I am initially coming up with from the team finishes by division.
2014 Ending Season Records, Final Power Rankings & 2015 Projected STARTING Rankings:
Bellarmine: record 10-3, 2014 ranking 42.8, 2015 Starting ranking of 42.4 [2015 = Minus .4]
Serra: record 7-4, 2014 ranking 37.4, 2015 Starting ranking of 42.5 [2015 = Plus 5.1]
St. Francis: record 9-4, 2014 ranking 36.9, 2015 Starting ranking of 37.5 [2015 = Plus .6]
Valley Christian: record 9-3, 2014 ranking of 41.6, Starting ranking of 31.9 [2015 = Minus 9.7]
Mitty: record 8-5, 2014 ranking of 34.6, 2015 Starting ranking of 21.7 [2015 = Minus 12.9]
St. Ignatius: record 7-6, 2014 ranking of 32.3, 2015 Starting ranking of 21.2 [2015 = Minus 11.1]
SHC: record 3-7, 2014 ranking 18.8, 2015 Starting ranking of 18.3 [2015 = Minus .5]
Riordan: record 1-9, ranking of 15.2, 2015 Starting ranking of 17.9 [2015 = Plus 2.7]
Rankings/ratings conclusion: Bells, SF & SHC all remain about the same while Serra shows marked improvement while VC, Mitty & SI all show considerable drops in team strength overall. Riordan shows a medium gain and is rated about even with SHC and both teams are close in rating to SI & Mitty this season to start. As with my order of finish above here is the rankings projected finish:
Serra, Bells, SF, VC, Mitty, SI, SHC, Riordan
The last 4 teams are the same in both my projection and the computer projection. The difference at the top is the Bells & Serra will battle for top spot while VC struggles and SF shows marked improvement and may challenge for the top spot as well. It is looking like a drop off year for SI and there very well could be a shake-up of the bottom 4 teams in the league.
2014 Season in review - High's & Low's by Team:
Bellarmine: mostly a season of high's for the surprising Bells picked to be among the lower tier teams and finished at 10-3 as the most successful WCAL overall in the CCS. A young team & under-sized the Bells won games as they usually do, with excellent play calling, great play execution and limited penalties. The low for the team was a humbling 42-17 loss to VC during regular season which the Bells reversed in a surprising tough win of 21-18 over VC in the opening round of the playoffs. The high for the season was yet another upset in a huge 9-6 victory over an undefeated & massive Milpitas team, which was many fans pick to take the Open Division. The Bells fell short in the CCS Championship by 14-0 to SHP who seemed to beat the Bells at their own game, simply by limiting mistakes and great play execution. The season was an overall success with most of the Bells talent returning for 2015.
Serra: a chaotic season of ups & downs for the Padres ending the legitimate season with a beat-down loss to Los Gatos by 28-0 on Serra's home turf and then a record setting punishment by out-going CCS commissioner Nancy Lazenby-Blaser for the Padres forfeiting a scrimmage consolation game against Milpitas. The punishment of Serra's highly respected program is even more baffling in that the consolation bracket games were abolished after 1 season & universally criticized as simply a terrible idea to generate more funds for the CCS. As for the regular season which actually counted Serra finished 7-4 [no one outside the CCS considered the consolation games as legitimate games & therefore they do not appear on Serra or any of the teams overall records]. Serra started the season with a new 15 year old sophomore QB named Siteleki Nunn going up against DLS. The game ended 41-13 DLS, however the young QB for Serra threw 2 TD passes against DLS which is something not many teams were able to accomplish during the 2014 season. Serra had 2 additional losses to Sherman-Oaks & Mitty in which the Padres were plagued by mistakes & turn-overs. When the Padres play well they played very well & when they fumbled, threw INT's and racked up penalties the results were somewhat predictable. With returning skill players and hopefully a better handle on the ball this season Serra should be a legitimate contender for the league title.
Valley Christian: the Warrior's were somewhat of a disappointment and a mystery at the same time for 2014. VC was a big physical team with the best core of 4 RB's in NorCal & a Division 1 WR in Collin Johnson. It appeared early on that VC would simply run the ball & no one might be able to stop them.
VC first stumbled in a 31-17 loss to Milpitas which at the time seemed like an upset, prior tofans realizing how good Milpitas was. VC later lost to Serra by a similar deficit and then was upended by the Bells in a rematch game in which the Bells shocked VC & ended their season. VC again will be big physically and has some talent at RB and returns one tall & fast WR by the name of Collin Johnson. VC will need better play calling and QB play in 2014 and overall better execution on offense. VC's Defense played well, but at times was placed on the field too many times after 3 & outs by their offense. VC must be able to pass if to have a successful 2015 season.
St. Francis: the Lancers were a highly competitive team in 2014 who were perhaps one step away from contending for the league title finishing at 9-4 overall and capturing a lower division CCS title easily. SF stumbled early on vs a good Palma team & had close losses to Bells & Serra. Like several other WCAL teams the SF Lancer team was solid on Defense, but lacking at times on offense with inconsistent play. The Lancer's high for the season was the Division II CCS Cahmpionship win with a convincing 17-7 win over MItty.
Mitty: the Monarch's finished 2014 with a respectable 8-5 record losing in the CCS div. II Championship to their nemesis St. Francis. Mitty started the season with a solid win over a tough Pittsburgh team by 13-7 and later upset Serra with a solid 27-14 win over Serra in which Mitty dominated. Mitty had a surprising number of close losses in their season which could have easily ended at 10-3. Their best game was the win over Serra and their low point the 2nd loss of the season to SF in the playoffs.
St. Ignatius: the Wildcats in all perspective simply had a tough year in 2014. Had some plays & calls went their way possibly their season could have ended on a different note. SI had numerous close losses which is what separates the best teams from the rest. SI's high point easily was the great win over St. Mary's Stockton, a highly talented team which I picked to beat SI by 7-14 points. There was little to separate SI from the top teams in the WCAL with close losses to the Bells 31-28, Valley Christian 17-15 and Mitty 17-14.
SI featured QB Ryan Hagfeldt as one of the best QB's in the CCS and they were certainly one of the most entertaining teams to watch. SI for the 2nd year in a row suffered a close heart-breaking loss in the Division III Championship to Aptos. SI will be solid for 2015, but Hagfeldt will be difficult to replace.
SHC: the Irish this season will be in a log-jam amongst 3-4 teams to see whom emerges possibly as a legitimate top tier team who can upset one or more of the perennial powers of the WCAL. The Irish have the athletes and in 2014 came close to several WCAL victories each time falling short. An extremely weak pre-season did not help prepare SHC for the rigors of the WCAL. The low point would be the 2nd consecutive loss to arch-rival Riordan while the high point would be the 2 close losses to SF 27-21 & Mitty 33-27.
Riordan: the Crusader's are inching closer this season in WCAL with a quality returning QB and a number of other good athletes. While the SHC win was huge for Riordan their high point was the near upset in a loss to SF by 25-23 in which the Crusader's almost pulled out the win. Also as I've mentioned was the narrow 13-7 loss to eventual CCS Open Champ SHP.
Upcoming: further predictions & team by team assessments of strengths & weaknesses while taking a look at early pre-season opponents & what to expect.
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