Anyone know what is going on with CalPreps power ratings

[2wcats]

Since we are cranking up for the season I thought I would take a look at some of the team previews on Calpreps. I know there have been opinions all over the place on Calpreps on the board over the years (I know there are plenty who think it was full of crap). I have never thought it was that accurate especially before the season starts but I always thought it was at least a stable reference point year to year that gave you a general feel. Like it or not many sections are using the ratings for playoff seeding and where you start will impact how high the rating can get so I do track it more now than a couple years ago.

Either they think almost every team is way below their historical average or they have changed something in their calculations for power ratings. Doesn't seem so apparent for SJS teams but almost all are below historical averages. The CCS and NCS teams are way down outside of Serra. They have SF down -28.7 VC down -36.4 DLS down -18 Pitt down -17.8 Campo down -20 LG down -15 Wilcox down -24.6

Is NorCal football just getting drastically weaker or has something changed?

 

[PALFan]

Southern California has always had more depth in terms of real good teams. Add in the fact that they can now recruit Northern California's best w/housing and of course you're going to have this huge discrepancy.

 

[MTsince2004]

They always seem to start low and then raise across the board as the season progresses. They really aren't too accurate until a month into the season, and even then can be problematic when unaccounted for injuries occur.

 

[bulldogmgc]

Click on Team Preview (in green) just below the team name. The details within should provide an explanation why the rating may have dropped per team. For example, for St. Mary’s, their league strength this year is at an all-time low even though their non-league schedule is pretty strong. Towards the bottom the comparison is noted …

2023 vs. 2022 Schedule Strength Comparison: -9.7

Which explains the drop of start of season rating for 2023 vs end of 2022 rating, even though many will agree this year’s St. Mary’s team will be better than last year given all of the other attributes, especially 16 returning starters.

Damn computers! 😂

 

[Larno51]

Since these are preseason ratings with no results they are based, I presume, on past performance coupled with returning players, etc. I have also noticed that the preseason numbers are low, artificially low perhaps, and are just somewhere to start. I think the way to look at them is not as absolute numbers but in relation to other teams. For example, I looked at the ranking based on the numbers for the SJS preseason and compared them to the rankings for the end of last season and the first 12 teams were the same, with maybe one exception. Not necessarily in the same order, but close. So prior year performance would seem to be a big factor. For example, since I am most familiar with this, in 2021 Turlock was 4-6 with a rating of 9.4 due in part to a very difficult schedule. So, for the beginning of 2022 their rating was 0 (zero). They ended up 2022 at 30.1, and start this year at 14.8. As for the discrepancy with Southern California schools, other than Mater Dei and St. John Bosco, who are on completely different planets from anyone else, the best Northern California teams are as good as the Southern California teams there are just a lot more of them in the south due to the population difference.

 

[Bluedog2]

Since we are cranking up for the season I thought I would take a look at some of the team previews on Calpreps. I know there have been opinions all over the place on Calpreps on the board over the years (I know there are plenty who think it was full of crap). I have never thought it was that accurate especially before the season starts but I always thought it was at least a stable reference point year to year that gave you a general feel. Like it or not many sections are using the ratings for playoff seeding and where you start will impact how high the rating can get so I do track it more now than a couple years ago.

Either they think almost every team is way below their historical average or they have changed something in their calculations for power ratings. Doesn't seem so apparent for SJS teams but almost all are below historical averages. The CCS and NCS teams are way down outside of Serra. They have SF down -28.7 VC down -36.4 DLS down -18 Pitt down -17.8 Campo down -20 LG down -15 Wilcox down -24.6

Is NorCal football just getting drastically weaker or has something changed?

2wcats... brought up a real problem that has been happening..And that the NorCal Football is weaker the last few years...The population in many cities have changed and no new blood is coming in..also, the transfers are doing damage to the programs...Some teams get a little stronger and others weaker. Take a look at the valley, new high schools are popping up and new power houses aremaking them selves noticed....Lots of new blood are changing the teams, that now have speed and size..There is a huge growth of kids that are coming out now and are changing the history or making history for the new HS. HS like St. Mary in Stockton seems to drawkids from all over the valley and they make them selves noticed....But how about Pittsburg....For the last four years, the Pirates have been their own emeny as how many good players do not put out and making Pittsburg beat them selves...For the Pirastes facing Fosom in the past,the score was much must have been closer, but, the Pirates beat them selves....Many of the HS's face the same problem and the kids have to dig in and play to win....

 

[bulldogmgc]

St Mary’s draw of kids is not as great as it sounds. Enrollment is only 785 and has gone down year after year, much due recently to Covid-19 and the impact it has had to the economy. When my sons attended the school, enrollment was over 1200. Other schools in the area, like Lincoln of Stockton, have seen enrollment increase.

Credit the Jr Rams program that’s been around for more than 10 years that has fed the high school for football talent, just as the CYO basketball programs have fed the school’s basketball success. Yet, not all kids from these programs continue on at SMHS. Some knowing there isn’t room for them to start have ventured to other schools (like Lincoln). But, the success of each respective program has been the true magnet for the draw of talent. And it’s not just sports. The school draws attention for its academic program, its sense of community, and its success of alumni. Being the best and being able to draw students outside boundaries set for public schools doesn’t hurt. 😉

 

[BigMann08]

Since we are cranking up for the season I thought I would take a look at some of the team previews on Calpreps. I know there have been opinions all over the place on Calpreps on the board over the years (I know there are plenty who think it was full of crap). I have never thought it was that accurate especially before the season starts but I always thought it was at least a stable reference point year to year that gave you a general feel. Like it or not many sections are using the ratings for playoff seeding and where you start will impact how high the rating can get so I do track it more now than a couple years ago.

Either they think almost every team is way below their historical average or they have changed something in their calculations for power ratings. Doesn't seem so apparent for SJS teams but almost all are below historical averages. The CCS and NCS teams are way down outside of Serra. They have SF down -28.7 VC down -36.4 DLS down -18 Pitt down -17.8 Campo down -20 LG down -15 Wilcox down -24.6

Is NorCal football just getting drastically weaker or has something changed?

The NorCal private schools are much weaker than their SoCal counterparts. They play by a different set of rules and guidelines.