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Final CCS playoff projections after week 10

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PALbooster

Sports Fanatic
Oct 26, 2007
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CCS Play-off predictions – going into league play


Most teams are starting league play this week and the new CCS play-off format makes projecting the play-off field somewhat easier. It is not simplistic to project league results from non-league play as teams take different approaches to pre-season scheduling and games and you can’t simply rely on pre-season records. However, unlike pre-season projections we have had a chance to see what teams are showing this year on the field.


Open Play-offs


The open play-offs will break into three divisions. The top 4 teams from each of the five A leagues will qualify plus four at-large teams among the remaining 15 A league teams that don’t finish in the top four places in their league. I project that Aptos will opt up to the open play-offs and that whoever wins the Mission Trail League (likely Carmel or Pacific Grove) will not.

Projections with CBED numbers

Open Division I

Bellarmine 3300
Milpitas 3113
San Benito 2877
Salinas 2616
Alvarez 2496
St. Teresa 2356
Piedmont Hills 2245
Menlo-Atherton 2157

Open Division II

Palo Alto 1969
Oak Grove 1940
Wilcox 1937
Los Gatos 1875
Mitty 1744
St. Francis 1731
Leigh 1686
Valley Christian 1457

Open Division III

Aragon 1431
Aptos 1418 – Assumes opts into open
Riordan 1354
Burlingame 1342
Live Oak 1061
Monte Vista Christian 815
Palma 754
Sacred Heart Prep 604

Non-Open Division I

Silver Creek 2479
North Salinas 1925
Santa Clara 1913
Woodside 1819
San Mateo 1624
Mt. Pleasant 1472
Soledad 1369
Saratoga 1363* - assumed bumped from open to non-open by Aptos

Non-Open Division II

Seaside 1061
Half Moon Bay 1013
Carmel 867
San Lorenzo Valley 836
Scotts Valley 781
Pacific Grove 594
Kings Academy 594
Menlo 578

As league play opens for most leagues – Serra vs Bellarmine is no the only big game. The winner of Lincoln vs Silver Creek will likely win the Santa Teresa league. Santa Clara vs Mone Vista features two of the three favorites for the El Camino league and Saratoga vs Palo Alto winner will likely get the fourth automatic spot from the Deanza league. Los Gatos vs Wilcox features two fo the top three teams in the Deanza league.

A League previews

Deanza Milpitas, Wilcox and Los Gatos will fight it out for the league championship with all three gaining automatic qualifying spots. Fourth place and the last automatic spot will likely go to the winner of the Saratoga vs Palo Alto game this week with the loser having a reasonable chance at picking up one of the open division at-large spots. Fremont and Homestead figure to be the bottom two teams.

Monterey Bay Gabilan Palma seems to be the favorite with San Benito and Salinas looking to take two of the other automatic spots. MVC looks like the front runner for the fourth spot although it is hard to assess their preseason schedule. The bottom of this league looked pretty week in pre-season and if Alvarez can get by Monterey and Christopher they figure to have a shot at an open at-large berth.

Mount Hamilton Oak Grove looks to be the favorite with Piedmont Hills, Live Oak and Leigh the leading contenders for the other three spots. Santa Teresa, Willow Glen and Pioneer should contend for an at-large berth. Leland will likely finish last. Pioneer is hard to assess for league as they were absolutely drubbed by three non-league opponents – all of whom are above the level of competition they will face in league.

PAL Bay Sacred Heart Prep is probably still the favorite. Aragon and Burlingame should finish second and third although they weren’t highly tested in pre season. Menlo-Atherton withstood a difficult pre-season and should finish fourth ahead of Terra Nova and Sequoia.

WCAL – Plenty already written on this board so won’t go into depth here. Serra is banned from the play-offs so the top four WCAL teams figure to be Bellarmine, St. Francis, Valley Christian and Mitty. Riordan based on their strong pre-season record will get an at-large if they beat SI and SHC. Interesting scenario if SI beats Riordan and finishes ahead of them in league standings if WCAL will use league integrity rule and put SI in front of Riordan for play-off consideration. This will play out as the season progresses.

B and C leagues

El Camino Santa Clara is the favorite with potential challenges from Mountain View, Monte Vista and Los Altos. As this is a C league the only team with a realistic shot at an at-large berth would be Santa Clara if they were to stumble in league.

Mission Trail Looks like Carmel and Pacific Grove once again for the top two spots and the two automatic qualifying positions. Neither seem particularly strong this year and while the winner can opt up to the open play off I think the winner of this league would be outmatched and would be well advised to compete in the non open division. Soledad should finish third and get an at-large berth but will potentially be challenged by King City, Gonzales and Stevenson. Greenfield and Marina figure to be at the bottom of this league.

Monterey Bay Pacific It looks like a two team race between Seaside and North Salinas with neither looking particularly strong in preseason. Pajaro Valley went 3-0 against weak competition and Gilroy and Watsonville are not too far behind the favorites and could step up. It is likely the second place team from this league will amass enough points to be an at-large team

PAL Ocean Probably the best B league this year and should be highly competitive with four of the six teams undefeated through preseason. Given their preseason records it is likely that the second and third and probably fourth place team from this league will gain at large spots for the play-offs. Menlo and Half Moon Bay are the highest rated but both teams only suit up 20-25 players and are vulnerable to injury. Kings Academy has shown promise against a weak schedule but are very young. Woodside has had a strong preseason. South San Francisco is 2-2 but its two losses were to Serra (blowout) and Burlingame (competitive) and will be highly competitive in this league. Hillsdale is 3-1 and probably the weakest team in the league but should still be highly competitive.

PAL Lake San Mateo seems to be the strongest team and should be challenged by Carlmont, Capuchino, and Jefferson. El Camino and Mills should be at the bottom of this league. This is a C league so only the league champion is likely to qualify for the play-offs.

Santa Cruz Coast Aptos is a prohibitive favorite and Scotts Valley should grab this leagues second automatic playoff spot. Aptos is likely to opt up to the division III open playoffs if they win their league. San Lorenzo Valley should have a good shot for an at-large bid if they win their final non league games.

Santa Teresa Silver Creek and Lincoln look to be the favorites for this league and face off this week. Two of this league’s teams (Lincoln and San Jose) opt out of the CCS playoffs to play their traditional Thanksgiving game. Westmont, Independence, and Branham could gain an at-large is they are able to finish second or third in league.

West Valley Mount Pleasant is the favorite here with Yeurba Buena and Overfelt the most likely challengers in this C league.
 
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PALbooster said:
CCS Play-off predictions – going into league play


Most teams are starting league play this week and the new CCS play-off format makes projecting the play-off field somewhat easier. It is not simplistic to project league results from non-league play as teams take different approaches to pre-season scheduling and games and you can’t simply rely on pre-season records. However, unlike pre-season projections we have had a chance to see what teams are showing this year on the field.


Open Play-offs


The open play-offs will break into three divisions. The top 4 teams from each of the five A leagues will qualify plus four at-large teams among the remaining 15 A league teams that don’t finish in the top four places in their league. I project that Aptos will opt up to the open play-offs and that whoever wins the Mission Trail League (likely Carmel or Pacific Grove) will not.

Projections with CBED numbers

Open Division I

Bellarmine 3300
Milpitas 3113
San Benito 2877
Salinas 2616
Alvarez 2496
St. Teresa 2356
Piedmont Hills 2245
Menlo-Atherton 2157

Open Division II

Palo Alto 1969
Oak Grove 1940
Wilcox 1937
Los Gatos 1875
Mitty 1744
St. Francis 1731
Leigh 1686
Valley Christian 1457

Open Division III

Aragon 1431
Aptos 1418 – Assumes opts into open
Riordan 1354
Burlingame 1342
Live Oak 1061
Monte Vista Christian 815
Palma 754
Sacred Heart Prep 604

A League previews

Deanza Milpitas, Wilcox and Los Gatos will fight it out for the league championship with all three gaining automatic qualifying spots. Fourth place and the last automatic spot will likely go to the winner of the Saratoga vs Palo Alto game this week with the loser having a reasonable chance at picking up one of the open division at-large spots. Fremont and Homestead figure to be the bottom two teams.

Monterey Bay Gabilan Palma seems to be the favorite with San Benito and Salinas looking to take two of the other automatic spots. MVC looks like the front runner for the fourth spot although it is hard to assess their preseason schedule. The bottom of this league looked pretty week in pre-season and if Alvarez can get by Monterey and Christopher they figure to have a shot at an open at-large berth.

Mount Hamilton Oak Grove looks to be the favorite with Piedmont Hills, Live Oak and Leigh the leading contenders for the other three spots. Santa Teresa, Willow Glen and Pioneer should contend for an at-large berth. Leland will likely finish last. Pioneer is hard to assess for league as they were absolutely drubbed by three non-league opponents – all of whom are above the level of competition they will face in league.

PAL Bay Sacred Heart Prep is probably still the favorite. Aragon and Burlingame should finish second and third although they weren’t highly tested in pre season. Menlo-Atherton withstood a difficult pre-season and should finish fourth ahead of Terra Nova and Sequoia.

WCAL – Plenty already written on this board so won’t go into depth here. Serra is banned from the play-offs so the top four WCAL teams figure to be Bellarmine, St. Francis, Valley Christian and Mitty. Riordan based on their strong pre-season record will get an at-large if they beat SI and SHC. Interesting scenario if SI beats Riordan and finishes ahead of them in league standings if WCAL will use league integrity rule and put SI in front of Riordan for play-off consideration. This will play out as the season progresses.
Click to expand...

I don't see Alvarez finishing in the top 4 in their league and can't see how they could be selected as and at large team. That would bump Palo Alto to Div 1. Also I do not see SI beating Riordan. If they finish in 7th place in the WCAL can they qualify as an at large team with a 1-9 record (assuming their only win is against SHC) and Serra being banned?
 
Mr. Direct said:
I don't see Alvarez finishing in the top 4 in their league and can't see how they could be selected as and at large team. That would bump Palo Alto to Div 1. Also I do not see SI beating Riordan. If they finish in 7th place in the WCAL can they qualify as an at large team with a 1-9 record (assuming their only win is against SHC) and Serra being banned?
Click to expand...
From the looks of it now it would be all WCAL winner in each of the open slots. I could see Wilcox pulling an upset off, but that remains to be seen. No one has a fighters chance against the Bells in the D1 open. The D2 open field will be loaded. Riordan should have a great chance at the D3 crown. Thanks for the write up. Plenty of info for people that don't know how this new format will work.
 
Very good writeup. I wrote in an article last week that Valley Christian is a very interesting team. I had them as the smallest Open II team. I wonder if they will get bumped to Open III
 
That Open Division 1 bracket is almost comical, yikes! Division 2 though looks like a doozy!
 
PALbooster said:
CCS Play-off predictions – going into league play


Most teams are starting league play this week and the new CCS play-off format makes projecting the play-off field somewhat easier. It is not simplistic to project league results from non-league play as teams take different approaches to pre-season scheduling and games and you can’t simply rely on pre-season records. However, unlike pre-season projections we have had a chance to see what teams are showing this year on the field.


Open Play-offs


The open play-offs will break into three divisions. The top 4 teams from each of the five A leagues will qualify plus four at-large teams among the remaining 15 A league teams that don’t finish in the top four places in their league. I project that Aptos will opt up to the open play-offs and that whoever wins the Mission Trail League (likely Carmel or Pacific Grove) will not.

Projections with CBED numbers

Open Division I

Bellarmine 3300
Milpitas 3113
San Benito 2877
Salinas 2616
Alvarez 2496
St. Teresa 2356
Piedmont Hills 2245
Menlo-Atherton 2157

Open Division II

Palo Alto 1969
Oak Grove 1940
Wilcox 1937
Los Gatos 1875
Mitty 1744
St. Francis 1731
Leigh 1686
Valley Christian 1457

Open Division III

Aragon 1431
Aptos 1418 – Assumes opts into open
Riordan 1354
Burlingame 1342
Live Oak 1061
Monte Vista Christian 815
Palma 754
Sacred Heart Prep 604

Non-Open Division I

Silver Creek 2479
North Salinas 1925
Santa Clara 1913
Woodside 1819
San Mateo 1624
Mt. Pleasant 1472
Soledad 1369
Saratoga 1363* - assumed bumped from open to non-open by Aptos

Non-Open Division II

Seaside 1061
Half Moon Bay 1013
Carmel 867
San Lorenzo Valley 836
Scotts Valley 781
Pacific Grove 594
Kings Academy 594
Menlo 578

As league play opens for most leagues – Serra vs Bellarmine is no the only big game. The winner of Lincoln vs Silver Creek will likely win the Santa Teresa league. Santa Clara vs Mone Vista features two of the three favorites for the El Camino league and Saratoga vs Palo Alto winner will likely get the fourth automatic spot from the Deanza league. Los Gatos vs Wilcox features two fo the top three teams in the Deanza league.

A League previews

Deanza Milpitas, Wilcox and Los Gatos will fight it out for the league championship with all three gaining automatic qualifying spots. Fourth place and the last automatic spot will likely go to the winner of the Saratoga vs Palo Alto game this week with the loser having a reasonable chance at picking up one of the open division at-large spots. Fremont and Homestead figure to be the bottom two teams.

Monterey Bay Gabilan Palma seems to be the favorite with San Benito and Salinas looking to take two of the other automatic spots. MVC looks like the front runner for the fourth spot although it is hard to assess their preseason schedule. The bottom of this league looked pretty week in pre-season and if Alvarez can get by Monterey and Christopher they figure to have a shot at an open at-large berth.

Mount Hamilton Oak Grove looks to be the favorite with Piedmont Hills, Live Oak and Leigh the leading contenders for the other three spots. Santa Teresa, Willow Glen and Pioneer should contend for an at-large berth. Leland will likely finish last. Pioneer is hard to assess for league as they were absolutely drubbed by three non-league opponents – all of whom are above the level of competition they will face in league.

PAL Bay Sacred Heart Prep is probably still the favorite. Aragon and Burlingame should finish second and third although they weren’t highly tested in pre season. Menlo-Atherton withstood a difficult pre-season and should finish fourth ahead of Terra Nova and Sequoia.

WCAL – Plenty already written on this board so won’t go into depth here. Serra is banned from the play-offs so the top four WCAL teams figure to be Bellarmine, St. Francis, Valley Christian and Mitty. Riordan based on their strong pre-season record will get an at-large if they beat SI and SHC. Interesting scenario if SI beats Riordan and finishes ahead of them in league standings if WCAL will use league integrity rule and put SI in front of Riordan for play-off consideration. This will play out as the season progresses.

B and C leagues

El Camino Santa Clara is the favorite with potential challenges from Mountain View, Monte Vista and Los Altos. As this is a C league the only team with a realistic shot at an at-large berth would be Santa Clara if they were to stumble in league.

Mission Trail Looks like Carmel and Pacific Grove once again for the top two spots and the two automatic qualifying positions. Neither seem particularly strong this year and while the winner can opt up to the open play off I think the winner of this league would be outmatched and would be well advised to compete in the non open division. Soledad should finish third and get an at-large berth but will potentially be challenged by King City, Gonzales and Stevenson. Greenfield and Marina figure to be at the bottom of this league.

Monterey Bay Pacific It looks like a two team race between Seaside and North Salinas with neither looking particularly strong in preseason. Pajaro Valley went 3-0 against weak competition and Gilroy and Watsonville are not too far behind the favorites and could step up. It is likely the second place team from this league will amass enough points to be an at-large team

PAL Ocean Probably the best B league this year and should be highly competitive with four of the six teams undefeated through preseason. Given their preseason records it is likely that the second and third and probably fourth place team from this league will gain at large spots for the play-offs. Menlo and Half Moon Bay are the highest rated but both teams only suit up 20-25 players and are vulnerable to injury. Kings Academy has shown promise against a weak schedule but are very young. Woodside has had a strong preseason. South San Francisco is 2-2 but its two losses were to Serra (blowout) and Burlingame (competitive) and will be highly competitive in this league. Hillsdale is 3-1 and probably the weakest team in the league but should still be highly competitive.

PAL Lake San Mateo seems to be the strongest team and should be challenged by Carlmont, Capuchino, and Jefferson. El Camino and Mills should be at the bottom of this league. This is a C league so only the league champion is likely to qualify for the play-offs.

Santa Cruz Coast Aptos is a prohibitive favorite and Scotts Valley should grab this leagues second automatic playoff spot. Aptos is likely to opt up to the division III open playoffs if they win their league. San Lorenzo Valley should have a good shot for an at-large bid if they win their final non league games.

Santa Teresa Silver Creek and Lincoln look to be the favorites for this league and face off this week. Two of this league’s teams (Lincoln and San Jose) opt out of the CCS playoffs to play their traditional Thanksgiving game. Westmont, Independence, and Branham could gain an at-large is they are able to finish second or third in league.

West Valley Mount Pleasant is the favorite here with Yeurba Buena and Overfelt the most likely challengers in this C league.
Click to expand...

Booster - great review! Every year you start the CCS play-off discussion a little earlier. Among the serial posts here, yours is among my favorite. Looking forward!!!
 
CCS play-off predictions – going into Week 5

With the new playoff format 24 of the 36 teams in A leagues make the play-offs. I don’t think you will see much movement in teams that are projected to make it as the season progresses except possibly at the margin like the final AQ from the PAL or an at-large team from the bottom of the Blossom Valley League or WCAL. Seeding and points will change as they play each other. Starting this week I have added projected record and points.


Open Play-offs


Still projecting Aptos to play up and the Mission Trail winner not to play up. Saratoga is projected as the final at-large and gets bumped down

Projections with CBED numbers, projected records and points

Open Division I

8. Alvarez 2496 4-6 18.5 vs 1.Bellarmine 3300 10-0 32
5. San Benito 2877 7-3 24.5 vs 4. Piedmont Hills 2245 8-2 26
6. Menlo-Atherton 2157 4-6 20.5 vs 3. Salinas 2616 7-3 27
7. Santa Teresa 2356 5-5 19.5 vs 2. Milpitas 3113 8-2 28.5

Open Division II

8. Palo Alto 1969 4-6 20 vs 1. Valley Christian 1457 8-2 29
5. Leigh 1686 7-3 23.5 vs 4. Wilcox 1937 8-2 26.5
6 Los Gatos 1875 7-3 25 vs 3. St. Francis 1731 7-3 27
7. Mitty 1744 5-5 21.5 vs 2. Oak Grove 1940 8-2 28.5

Open Division III

8. Riordan 1354 6-4 23.5 vs 1. Palma 754 9-1 31.5
5. Aptos 1418 6-4 24.5 vs 4. Burlingame 1342 9-1 27.5
6. Aragon 1431 8-2 25 vs 3. Live Oak 1061 9-1 28
7. Monte Vista Chr. 815 7-3 23 vs 2. Sacred Heart Prep 604 8-2 30.5

A teams projected not to make the play-offs: Serra (ineligible), SI, SHC, Monterey, Christopher, Sequoia, Terra Nova, Leland, Pioneer, Willow Glen, Homestead and Fremont.

Non-Open Play-offs

This will be more dynamic with a lot of teams that have relatively close point totals battling for the last few play-off spots. Many of these league races are highly competitive and more difficult to project.

Non-Open Division I

8. Independence 3260 6-4 19.5 vs 1. North Salinas 1925 8-2 24.5
5. Mt. Pleasant 1472 8-2 20.5 vs 4. Woodside 1819 7-3 20.5
6. Soledad 1369 7-3 20.5 vs 3. 3. Santa Clara 1913 9-1 21.0
7. San Mateo 1624 7-3 17.5 vs 2. Silver Creek 2479 9-1 23.5

Note: Seeds 4, 5 and 6 are interchangeable as they are a tie,

Non-Open Division II

8. Saratoga 1363 4-6 17 vs 1. Menlo 578 9-1 28
5. Gonzales 761 7-3 20 vs 4. Scotts Valley 781 7-3 21
6. Gilroy 1357 6-4 19.5 vs 3. Pacific Grove 594 8-2 22.5
7. Half Moon Bay 1013 7-3 19.5 vs 2. Carmel 867 8-2 25.5

Seeds 6 and 7 are interchangeable.

Projected bubble teams:
San Lorenzo Valley 807 6-4 18.5
Kings Academy 591 7-3 18
Mountain View 1837 7-3 18
Watsonville 1923 6-4 18
South San Francisco 1482 6-4 17.5
 
Last edited:
PALbooster said:
CCS Play-off predictions – going into league play


Most teams are starting league play this week and the new CCS play-off format makes projecting the play-off field somewhat easier. It is not simplistic to project league results from non-league play as teams take different approaches to pre-season scheduling and games and you can’t simply rely on pre-season records. However, unlike pre-season projections we have had a chance to see what teams are showing this year on the field.


Open Play-offs


The open play-offs will break into three divisions. The top 4 teams from each of the five A leagues will qualify plus four at-large teams among the remaining 15 A league teams that don’t finish in the top four places in their league. I project that Aptos will opt up to the open play-offs and that whoever wins the Mission Trail League (likely Carmel or Pacific Grove) will not.

Projections with CBED numbers

Open Division I

Bellarmine 3300
Milpitas 3113
San Benito 2877
Salinas 2616
Alvarez 2496
St. Teresa 2356
Piedmont Hills 2245
Menlo-Atherton 2157

Open Division II

Palo Alto 1969
Oak Grove 1940
Wilcox 1937
Los Gatos 1875
Mitty 1744
St. Francis 1731
Leigh 1686
Valley Christian 1457

Open Division III

Aragon 1431
Aptos 1418 – Assumes opts into open
Riordan 1354
Burlingame 1342
Live Oak 1061
Monte Vista Christian 815
Palma 754
Sacred Heart Prep 604

Non-Open Division I

Silver Creek 2479
North Salinas 1925
Santa Clara 1913
Woodside 1819
San Mateo 1624
Mt. Pleasant 1472
Soledad 1369
Saratoga 1363* - assumed bumped from open to non-open by Aptos

Non-Open Division II

Seaside 1061
Half Moon Bay 1013
Carmel 867
San Lorenzo Valley 836
Scotts Valley 781
Pacific Grove 594
Kings Academy 594
Menlo 578

As league play opens for most leagues – Serra vs Bellarmine is no the only big game. The winner of Lincoln vs Silver Creek will likely win the Santa Teresa league. Santa Clara vs Mone Vista features two of the three favorites for the El Camino league and Saratoga vs Palo Alto winner will likely get the fourth automatic spot from the Deanza league. Los Gatos vs Wilcox features two fo the top three teams in the Deanza league.

A League previews

Deanza Milpitas, Wilcox and Los Gatos will fight it out for the league championship with all three gaining automatic qualifying spots. Fourth place and the last automatic spot will likely go to the winner of the Saratoga vs Palo Alto game this week with the loser having a reasonable chance at picking up one of the open division at-large spots. Fremont and Homestead figure to be the bottom two teams.

Monterey Bay Gabilan Palma seems to be the favorite with San Benito and Salinas looking to take two of the other automatic spots. MVC looks like the front runner for the fourth spot although it is hard to assess their preseason schedule. The bottom of this league looked pretty week in pre-season and if Alvarez can get by Monterey and Christopher they figure to have a shot at an open at-large berth.

Mount Hamilton Oak Grove looks to be the favorite with Piedmont Hills, Live Oak and Leigh the leading contenders for the other three spots. Santa Teresa, Willow Glen and Pioneer should contend for an at-large berth. Leland will likely finish last. Pioneer is hard to assess for league as they were absolutely drubbed by three non-league opponents – all of whom are above the level of competition they will face in league.

PAL Bay Sacred Heart Prep is probably still the favorite. Aragon and Burlingame should finish second and third although they weren’t highly tested in pre season. Menlo-Atherton withstood a difficult pre-season and should finish fourth ahead of Terra Nova and Sequoia.

WCAL – Plenty already written on this board so won’t go into depth here. Serra is banned from the play-offs so the top four WCAL teams figure to be Bellarmine, St. Francis, Valley Christian and Mitty. Riordan based on their strong pre-season record will get an at-large if they beat SI and SHC. Interesting scenario if SI beats Riordan and finishes ahead of them in league standings if WCAL will use league integrity rule and put SI in front of Riordan for play-off consideration. This will play out as the season progresses.

B and C leagues

El Camino Santa Clara is the favorite with potential challenges from Mountain View, Monte Vista and Los Altos. As this is a C league the only team with a realistic shot at an at-large berth would be Santa Clara if they were to stumble in league.

Mission Trail Looks like Carmel and Pacific Grove once again for the top two spots and the two automatic qualifying positions. Neither seem particularly strong this year and while the winner can opt up to the open play off I think the winner of this league would be outmatched and would be well advised to compete in the non open division. Soledad should finish third and get an at-large berth but will potentially be challenged by King City, Gonzales and Stevenson. Greenfield and Marina figure to be at the bottom of this league.

Monterey Bay Pacific It looks like a two team race between Seaside and North Salinas with neither looking particularly strong in preseason. Pajaro Valley went 3-0 against weak competition and Gilroy and Watsonville are not too far behind the favorites and could step up. It is likely the second place team from this league will amass enough points to be an at-large team

PAL Ocean Probably the best B league this year and should be highly competitive with four of the six teams undefeated through preseason. Given their preseason records it is likely that the second and third and probably fourth place team from this league will gain at large spots for the play-offs. Menlo and Half Moon Bay are the highest rated but both teams only suit up 20-25 players and are vulnerable to injury. Kings Academy has shown promise against a weak schedule but are very young. Woodside has had a strong preseason. South San Francisco is 2-2 but its two losses were to Serra (blowout) and Burlingame (competitive) and will be highly competitive in this league. Hillsdale is 3-1 and probably the weakest team in the league but should still be highly competitive.

PAL Lake San Mateo seems to be the strongest team and should be challenged by Carlmont, Capuchino, and Jefferson. El Camino and Mills should be at the bottom of this league. This is a C league so only the league champion is likely to qualify for the play-offs.

Santa Cruz Coast Aptos is a prohibitive favorite and Scotts Valley should grab this leagues second automatic playoff spot. Aptos is likely to opt up to the division III open playoffs if they win their league. San Lorenzo Valley should have a good shot for an at-large bid if they win their final non league games.

Santa Teresa Silver Creek and Lincoln look to be the favorites for this league and face off this week. Two of this league’s teams (Lincoln and San Jose) opt out of the CCS playoffs to play their traditional Thanksgiving game. Westmont, Independence, and Branham could gain an at-large is they are able to finish second or third in league.

West Valley Mount Pleasant is the favorite here with Yeurba Buena and Overfelt the most likely challengers in this C league.
Click to expand...

Is it just me or is the gap between the top and bottom teams in each league bigger than normal this year.
 
With 13 state games this year can anyone summarize how it's going to work this year? Is it still only playoff champs eligible so CCS will send at most 3 teams to the regionals?
 
Hatchball said:
With 13 state games this year can anyone summarize how it's going to work this year? Is it still only playoff champs eligible so CCS will send at most 3 teams to the regionals?
Click to expand...

Hatchball,

The CCS can send up to 5 teams to the regional playoffs - there is a provision in the CIF rules that allow for a section with an open championship division (assume it also applies to divisions) to designate a team that did not win an open section championship to replace another section champion (non-open division) as long as they have published their process and criteria before hand and the non-open champion that are putting forward would have been in bracket of the section champion they are replacing. Since the CCS has 5 play-off divisions it can replace its non-open division winners with teams that did not win their open division play-off. The CCS has published how they will determine which two of the three runner-ups they will forward for consideration.

What I can't find is the criteria for the different regional and state play-offs. There will be an open division (No regional game - just advance directly to the State game) a small school open division (1250 student or less) where apparently two schools will play at a regional level before advancing to a state championship. Finally there are Division 1A, 1AA, 2A, 2AA, 3A, 3AA, 4A, 4AA, 5A, 5AA, and 6AA (no 6A). where two teams from each the north and south will play each other with the winners advancing to a state championship. I do not know how the CCS sections will fit with these divisions, what the population criteria for each division is and what the difference is between say 5A and 5AA.
 
Last edited:
Hatchball said:
With 13 state games this year can anyone summarize how it's going to work this year? Is it still only playoff champs eligible so CCS will send at most 3 teams to the regionals?
Click to expand...

Because the CCS is calling the top 3 divisions "Open", the section has the option to send as many as two teams who lost in the championship games. The lower two division winners are not going to be eligible for the state regional games.
 
PALbooster said:
Hatchball,

The CCS can send up to 5 teams to the regional playoffs - there is a provision in the CIF rules that allow for a section with an open championship division (assume it also applies to divisions) to designate a non-section champion to replace another section champion (non-open division) as long as they have published their process and criteria before hand and the non-open champion that are putting forward would have been in bracket of the section champion they are replacing. Since the CCS has 5 play-off divisions it can replace its non-open division winners with teams that did not win their open division play-off. The CCS has published how they will determine which two of the three runner-ups they will forward for consideration.

What I can't find is the criteria for the different regional and state play-offs. There will be an open division (No regional game - just advance directly to the State game) a small school open division (1250 student or less) where apparently two schools will play at a regional level before advancing to a state championship. Finally there are Division 1A, 1AA, 2A, 2AA, 3A, 3AA, 4A, 4AA, 5A, 5AA, and 6AA (no 6A). where two teams from each the north and south will play each other with the winners advancing to a state championship. I do not know how the CCS sections will fit with these divisions, what the population criteria for each division is and what the difference is between say 5A and 5AA.
Click to expand...

It appears that the divisions are to be somewhat fluid. D-I does not mean D-I for particular sections, and down the line. They are going to be established by "competitive equity", whatever that means.

I'm waiting for the shock from the SS people when they see a CCS runner-up advance and complain why they can't do the same thing.
 
Cal 14 said:
It appears that the divisions are to be somewhat fluid. D-I does not mean D-I for particular sections, and down the line. They are going to be established by "competitive equity", whatever that means.

I'm waiting for the shock from the SS people when they see a CCS runner-up advance and complain why they can't do the same thing.
Click to expand...

Also interesting that they are splitting the Central Section - with Central Division I, III and V teams competing in the North and Central Division II, IV and VI competing in the South
 
Great Work!

2. Sacred Heart Prep 604 9-1 30.5

I believe SHP has two losses - Riordan and Palma

PALbooster said:
CCS play-off predictions – going into Week 5

With the new playoff format 24 of the 36 teams in A leagues make the play-offs. I don’t think you will see much movement in teams that are projected to make it as the season progresses except possibly at the margin like the final AQ from the PAL or an at-large team from the bottom of the Blossom Valley League or WCAL. Seeding and points will change as they play each other. Starting this week I have added projected record and points.


Open Play-offs


Still projecting Aptos to play up and the Mission Trail winner not to play up. Saratoga is projected as the final at-large and gets bumped down

Projections with CBED numbers, projected records and points

Open Division I

8. Alvarez 2496 4-6 18.5 vs 1.Bellarmine 3300 10-0 32
5. San Benito 2877 7-3 24.5 vs 4. Piedmont Hills 2245 8-2 26
6. Menlo-Atherton 2157 4-6 20.5 vs 3. Salinas 2616 7-3 27
7. Santa Teresa 2356 5-5 19.5 vs 2. Milpitas 3113 8-2 28.5

Open Division II

8. Palo Alto 1969 4-6 20 vs 1. Valley Christian 1457 8-2 29
5. Leigh 1686 7-3 23.5 vs 4. Wilcox 1937 8-2 26.5
6 Los Gatos 1875 7-3 25 vs 3. St. Francis 1731 7-3 27
7. Mitty 1744 5-5 21.5 vs 2. Oak Grove 1940 8-2 28.5

Open Division III

8. Riordan 1354 6-4 23.5 vs 1. Palma 754 9-1 31.5
5. Aptos 1418 6-4 24.5 vs 4. Burlingame 1342 9-1 27.5
6. Aragon 1431 8-2 25 vs 3. Live Oak 1061 9-1 28
7. Monte Vista Chr. 815 7-3 23 vs 2. Sacred Heart Prep 604 9-1 30.5

A teams projected not to make the play-offs: Serra (ineligible), SI, SHC, Monterey, Christopher, Sequoia, Terra Nova, Leland, Pioneer, Willow Glen, Homestead and Fremont.

Non-Open Play-offs

This will be more dynamic with a lot of teams that have relatively close point totals battling for the last few play-off spots. Many of these league races are highly competitive and more difficult to project.

Non-Open Division I

8. Independence 3260 6-4 19.5 vs 1. North Salinas 1925 8-2 24.5
5. Mt. Pleasant 1472 8-2 20.5 vs 4. Woodside 1819 7-3 20.5
6. Soledad 1369 7-3 20.5 vs 3. 3. Santa Clara 1913 9-1 21.0
7. San Mateo 1624 7-3 17.5 vs 2. Silver Creek 2479 9-1 23.5

Note: Seeds 4, 5 and 6 are interchangeable as they are a tie,

Non-Open Division II

8. Saratoga 1363 4-6 17 vs 1. Menlo 578 9-1 28
5. Gonzales 761 7-3 20 vs 4. Scotts Valley 781 7-3 21
6. Gilroy 1357 6-4 19.5 vs 3. Pacific Grove 594 8-2 22.5
7. Half Moon Bay 1013 7-3 19.5 vs 2. Carmel 867 8-2 25.5

Seeds 6 and 7 are interchangeable.

Projected bubble teams:
San Lorenzo Valley 807 6-4 18.5
Kings Academy 591 7-3 18
Mountain View 1837 7-3 18
Watsonville 1923 6-4 18
South San Francisco 1482 6-4 17.5
Click to expand...
 
-Calhi is reporting that the CIF will start by ranking the North and South teams 1-25.
-#1 seed goes to the Open.
-Small School (less than 1,250) Regional Open decided next.
-Then it is a matter of matching 2 v 3, 4 v 5, etc.
 
paul_johnson884 said:
-Calhi is reporting that the CIF will start by ranking the North and South teams 1-25.
-#1 seed goes to the Open.
-Small School (less than 1,250) Regional Open decided next.
-Then it is a matter of matching 2 v 3, 4 v 5, etc.
Click to expand...

Can you please provide a link? I'm on their website, but do not see this report.
 
I am surprised to hear that - you would think that once they get past the open divisions that they would give some consideration to school size (and potentially geography to make travel reasonable) rather than just doing it purely on some sort of ranking system.
 
PALbooster said:
I am surprised to hear that - you would think that once they get past the open divisions that they would give some consideration to school size (and potentially geography to make travel reasonable) rather than just doing it purely on some sort of ranking system.
Click to expand...

The travel consideration is already taken into account by having NorCal and SoCal regions.

As for the ranking system being used, I'm not that surprised that one is going to be utilized. I'm just surprised that the CIF was clever enough to come up with that concept.

Wonder how they'll do the rankings... composite of Cal-Hi and Calpreps? If they do their own poll, would that render Cal-Hi's rankings obsolete?

If they're going to do it this way, then the entire CS really should be considered NorCal so that the total number of teams can be balanced better. Moving D-I, III, and V to NorCal only partially addresses that issue.
 
CCS play-off predictions – half way home going into week 6

Only have one change in the Open field and a couple on the non-open field. In my opinion six of the leagues look fairly predictable and I would expect little change. The other seven leagues will have a good deal of parity and are much more difficult to project. A league by league breakdown is below

Open Play-offs

Still projecting Aptos to play up and the Mission Trail winner not to play up. Saratoga is projected as the final at-large and gets bumped down

Projections with CBED numbers, projected records and points
Open Division I
Change from last week is Santa Teresa is no longer projected into the field. They are replaced by Pioneer who goes into Open DII with Palo Alto moving from DII to DI. Some seeding changes with upsets to Bellarmine and Piedmont Hills.

8. Alvarez 2496 4-6 18.5 vs 1. Milpitas 3113 8-2 28.5
5. Piedmont Hills 2245 6-4 22 vs. 4. San Benito 2877 7-3 24.5
6. Menlo-Atherton 4-6 2157 21.5 vs 3. Bellarmine 3300 8-2 26.5
7. Palo Alto 1969 4-6 20 vs 2. Salinas 2616 7-3 27


Open Division II

Only change is addition of Pioneer and movement of Palo Alto to DI. St. Francis win over VC and Mitty over Bellarmine moved seeding projections.

8. Pioneer 1564 5-5 21 vs 1. St. Francis 1731 8-2 29
5. Mitty 1744 7-3 25.5 vs 4. Wilcox 1937 8-2 26.5
6 Leigh 1686 7-3 23.5 vs 3. Valley Christian 1457 7-3 27
7. Los Gatos 1875 7-3 25 vs 2. Oak Grove 1940 8-2 28.5

Open Division III

No change in the field – but Riordan projections changed. SHP’s points are based on Riordan, Menlo, Carmel, and Palma all being undisputed league champs.

8. Aragon 1431 8-2 23 vs 1. Palma 754 9-1 31.5
5. Burlingame 1342 9-1 26.5 vs 4. Live Oak 1061 9-1 28
6. Aptos 1418 6-4 23.5 vs 3. Riordan 1354 9-1 31
7. Monte Vista Chr. 815 7-3 23 vs 2. Sacred Heart Prep 604 8-2 31.5

A teams projected not to make the play-offs: Serra (ineligible), SI, SHC, Monterey, Christopher, Sequoia, Terra Nova, Leland, Pioneer, Willow Glen, Homestead and Fremont.

Non-Open Play-offs
Changes here are that Jefferson projected to win PAL Lake after beating San Mateo. Gilroy dropped with upset loss to Alisal and Hillsdale was added as an at-large.

Non-Open Division I
8. Woodside 1819 6-4 18.5 vs 1. North Salinas 1925 8-2 24.5
5. Mt. Pleasant 1472 8-2 20.5 vs 4. Soledad 1369 7-3 20.5
6. Independence 3260 6-4 19.5 vs 3. 3. Santa Clara 1913 9-1 21.0
7. Hillsdale 1397 6-4 19.5 vs 2. Silver Creek 2479 9-1 23.5

Note: Seeds 4 and 5 are interchangeable as they are a tie, Seeds 6 and 7 are interchangeable but Independence can’t play Silver Creek in round 1. Woodside is a tie with San Lorenzo Valley for the last spot. IF SLV were in Saratoga would move to DI as the 8th seed and SLV would be the 8 seed in division II.

Non-Open Division II
8. Saratoga 1363 4-6 17 vs 1. Menlo 578 9-1 28
5. Scotts Valley 781 7-3 21 vs 4. Pacific Grove 594 8-2 22.5
6. Gonzales 761 7-3 20 vs 3. Half Moon Bay 1013 9-1 23.5
7. Jefferson 1139 8-2 19 vs 2. Carmel 867 8-2 25.5

If SLV were added to replace Woodside, Saratoga would bump up a division and SLV would be the 8 seed.

Projected bubble teams:

San Lorenzo Valley 807 6-4 18.5
Seaside 6-4 18
Kings Academy 591 6-4 17
Mountain View 1837 7-3 17

League Projections
Two of the five A leagues look fairly straight forward with a fair amount of parity in the WCAL and lower levels of the Mount Hamilton and PAL Bay that could change some lower seeds in the field.

Deanza. Big game this week between Los Gatos and Milpitas. If Los Gatos wins they will very likely be sole league champion. A Milpitas win leaves them in the drivers seat but still needing to navigate a tough Wilcox team. I don’t see a lower team coming close to upsetting one of these top three teams. Homestaed will need to step up and knock off either Palo Alto or Saratoga to gain a play-off spot. Likely outcome is Palo Alto getting the last automatic spot and Saratoga getting the last A league at-large berth.

Monterey Gabilan. Palma is a heavy favorite to win this league with Salinas, San Benito and Monte Vista Christian aligned to get the next three automatic spots. Alvarez will be favored to beat Christopher and should have enough points for an at-large spot. If Christopher could pull a small upset here they could replace Alvarez for that spot.

WCAL. Riordan has emerged as a favorite but it really looks like a round robin among the top six teams and all five of the participants (Riordan, Bellarmine, St. Francis, Mitty and Valley Christian) will easily qualify for the play-offs. These team are all capable of beating each other and their projected point totals are likely to change as the season progresses. Serra is ineligible and St. Ignatius will need to pull an upset of one of the above teams to make it as an at-large.

PAL Bay. Sacred Heart Prep and Burlingame look like the top two teams and should easily make the play-offs with SHP the favorite to win this league. The bottom four teams (Aragon, Menlo-Atherton, Sequoia and Terra Nova) should all be competitive with each other for the final two spots. I have Aragon and Menlo-Atherton projected for the final two spots.

Mt. Hamilton. Oak Grove is a clear favorite with Live Oak a solid favorite to finish second. Leland looks like they will finish 8th. 3rd place through 7th in this league is up for grabs. The third ad fourth place teams will get automatic spots and it is highly likely the fifth place team will get an at-large berth. Pioneer showed some signs of life in beating Piedmont Hills after getting thrashed by four quality opponents. I have Pioneer, Leigh and Piedmont Hills emerging here with Santa Teresa and Willow Glen falling short.

Non-Open Leagues
The El Camino, Mission Trail, Santa Cruz Coast and West Valley races look fairly predictable with a lot of parity on the PAL-Ocean, PAL-Lake, Santa Teresa, and Monterey Pacific leagues.

El Camino. Santa Clara is a prohibitive favorite and needs to get by their primary competitor Mountain View to win the league. If Santa Clara were to stumble against Mountain View they would still likely get an at-large bid.

Mission Trail. Carmel and Pacific Grove both should go unbeaten into their week 10 showdown for the league championship. Both teams would get automatic berths. Neither team has shown that they would be competitive by opting up for the open division. Soledad and Gonzales are in good positions to get at-large berths from this league.

Santa Cruz Coast. Aptos should walk through their league schedule and Scotts Valley should easily finish second with both teams getting automatic berths. Given Aptos’ aspirations I would expect them to opt up for the challenge of a tough open division III , but they may look at Palma, SHP and Riordan and decide against this. San Lorenzo Valley should easily finish third and will be on the bubble for an at-large berth. The bottom three teams in this league Soquel, Santa Cruz and Harbor all went 0-5 in preseason.

West Valley. Mount Pleasant is a clear favorite and will have to get by Yerba Buena and Overfelt. Not likely to see an at-large team from this league.

PAL-Bay. This week’s showdown between unbeaten Menlo and Half Moon Bay figures to decide the league championship. Hillsdale has shown a dynamic offense but allows a lot of points. Woodside should be in the middle of the pack with a chance at an at-large berth. Kings Academy played a weak non-league schedule and it is not clear if their young team can must the 3 or 4 league wins they will need for an at-large berth. A lot of parity in this league

PAL-Lake. Jefferson beat San Mateo and will face challenges from Carlmont and Capuchino to win the league. Unlikely an at-large team will manifest itself from this league. This league has a fair amount of parity as well.

Santa Teresa. Lincoln should win and will vacate its spot for its Thanksgiving Day game. Silver Creek looks solid as the team that will receive the automatic berth. Independence has a good shot an at-large spot but will have to fend off Westmont for this position and avoid an upset by San Jose.

Monterey-Pacific. North Salinas looks like a clear favorite to win this league. The remaining teams are highly inconsistent and keep beating each other. It doesn’t look like the runner-up will emerge with enough points for an at-large spot.
 
PALbooster said:
CCS play-off predictions – half way home going into week 6

Only have one change in the Open field and a couple on the non-open field. In my opinion six of the leagues look fairly predictable and I would expect little change. The other seven leagues will have a good deal of parity and are much more difficult to project. A league by league breakdown is below

Open Play-offs

Still projecting Aptos to play up and the Mission Trail winner not to play up. Saratoga is projected as the final at-large and gets bumped down

Projections with CBED numbers, projected records and points
Open Division I
Change from last week is Santa Teresa is no longer projected into the field. They are replaced by Pioneer who goes into Open DII with Palo Alto moving from DII to DI. Some seeding changes with upsets to Bellarmine and Piedmont Hills.

8. Alvarez 2496 4-6 18.5 vs 1. Milpitas 3113 8-2 28.5
5. Piedmont Hills 2245 6-4 22 vs. 4. San Benito 2877 7-3 24.5
6. Menlo-Atherton 4-6 2157 21.5 vs 3. Bellarmine 3300 8-2 26.5
7. Palo Alto 1969 4-6 20 vs 2. Salinas 2616 7-3 27


Open Division II

Only change is addition of Pioneer and movement of Palo Alto to DI. St. Francis win over VC and Mitty over Bellarmine moved seeding projections.

8. Pioneer 1564 5-5 21 vs 1. St. Francis 1731 8-2 29
5. Mitty 1744 7-3 25.5 vs 4. Wilcox 1937 8-2 26.5
6 Leigh 1686 7-3 23.5 vs 3. Valley Christian 1457 7-3 27
7. Los Gatos 1875 7-3 25 vs 2. Oak Grove 1940 8-2 28.5

Open Division III

No change in the field – but Riordan projections changed. SHP’s points are based on Riordan, Menlo, Carmel, and Palma all being undisputed league champs.

8. Aragon 1431 8-2 23 vs 1. Palma 754 9-1 31.5
5. Burlingame 1342 9-1 26.5 vs 4. Live Oak 1061 9-1 28
6. Aptos 1418 6-4 23.5 vs 3. Riordan 1354 9-1 31
7. Monte Vista Chr. 815 7-3 23 vs 2. Sacred Heart Prep 604 8-2 31.5

A teams projected not to make the play-offs: Serra (ineligible), SI, SHC, Monterey, Christopher, Sequoia, Terra Nova, Leland, Pioneer, Willow Glen, Homestead and Fremont.

Non-Open Play-offs
Changes here are that Jefferson projected to win PAL Lake after beating San Mateo. Gilroy dropped with upset loss to Alisal and Hillsdale was added as an at-large.

Non-Open Division I
8. Woodside 1819 6-4 18.5 vs 1. North Salinas 1925 8-2 24.5
5. Mt. Pleasant 1472 8-2 20.5 vs 4. Soledad 1369 7-3 20.5
6. Independence 3260 6-4 19.5 vs 3. 3. Santa Clara 1913 9-1 21.0
7. Hillsdale 1397 6-4 19.5 vs 2. Silver Creek 2479 9-1 23.5

Note: Seeds 4 and 5 are interchangeable as they are a tie, Seeds 6 and 7 are interchangeable but Independence can’t play Silver Creek in round 1. Woodside is a tie with San Lorenzo Valley for the last spot. IF SLV were in Saratoga would move to DI as the 8th seed and SLV would be the 8 seed in division II.

Non-Open Division II
8. Saratoga 1363 4-6 17 vs 1. Menlo 578 9-1 28
5. Scotts Valley 781 7-3 21 vs 4. Pacific Grove 594 8-2 22.5
6. Gonzales 761 7-3 20 vs 3. Half Moon Bay 1013 9-1 23.5
7. Jefferson 1139 8-2 19 vs 2. Carmel 867 8-2 25.5

If SLV were added to replace Woodside, Saratoga would bump up a division and SLV would be the 8 seed.

Projected bubble teams:

San Lorenzo Valley 807 6-4 18.5
Seaside 6-4 18
Kings Academy 591 6-4 17
Mountain View 1837 7-3 17

League Projections
Two of the five A leagues look fairly straight forward with a fair amount of parity in the WCAL and lower levels of the Mount Hamilton and PAL Bay that could change some lower seeds in the field.

Deanza. Big game this week between Los Gatos and Milpitas. If Los Gatos wins they will very likely be sole league champion. A Milpitas win leaves them in the drivers seat but still needing to navigate a tough Wilcox team. I don’t see a lower team coming close to upsetting one of these top three teams. Homestaed will need to step up and knock off either Palo Alto or Saratoga to gain a play-off spot. Likely outcome is Palo Alto getting the last automatic spot and Saratoga getting the last A league at-large berth.

Monterey Gabilan. Palma is a heavy favorite to win this league with Salinas, San Benito and Monte Vista Christian aligned to get the next three automatic spots. Alvarez will be favored to beat Christopher and should have enough points for an at-large spot. If Christopher could pull a small upset here they could replace Alvarez for that spot.

WCAL. Riordan has emerged as a favorite but it really looks like a round robin among the top six teams and all five of the participants (Riordan, Bellarmine, St. Francis, Mitty and Valley Christian) will easily qualify for the play-offs. These team are all capable of beating each other and their projected point totals are likely to change as the season progresses. Serra is ineligible and St. Ignatius will need to pull an upset of one of the above teams to make it as an at-large.

PAL Bay. Sacred Heart Prep and Burlingame look like the top two teams and should easily make the play-offs with SHP the favorite to win this league. The bottom four teams (Aragon, Menlo-Atherton, Sequoia and Terra Nova) should all be competitive with each other for the final two spots. I have Aragon and Menlo-Atherton projected for the final two spots.

Mt. Hamilton. Oak Grove is a clear favorite with Live Oak a solid favorite to finish second. Leland looks like they will finish 8th. 3rd place through 7th in this league is up for grabs. The third ad fourth place teams will get automatic spots and it is highly likely the fifth place team will get an at-large berth. Pioneer showed some signs of life in beating Piedmont Hills after getting thrashed by four quality opponents. I have Pioneer, Leigh and Piedmont Hills emerging here with Santa Teresa and Willow Glen falling short.

Non-Open Leagues
The El Camino, Mission Trail, Santa Cruz Coast and West Valley races look fairly predictable with a lot of parity on the PAL-Ocean, PAL-Lake, Santa Teresa, and Monterey Pacific leagues.

El Camino. Santa Clara is a prohibitive favorite and needs to get by their primary competitor Mountain View to win the league. If Santa Clara were to stumble against Mountain View they would still likely get an at-large bid.

Mission Trail. Carmel and Pacific Grove both should go unbeaten into their week 10 showdown for the league championship. Both teams would get automatic berths. Neither team has shown that they would be competitive by opting up for the open division. Soledad and Gonzales are in good positions to get at-large berths from this league.

Santa Cruz Coast. Aptos should walk through their league schedule and Scotts Valley should easily finish second with both teams getting automatic berths. Given Aptos’ aspirations I would expect them to opt up for the challenge of a tough open division III , but they may look at Palma, SHP and Riordan and decide against this. San Lorenzo Valley should easily finish third and will be on the bubble for an at-large berth. The bottom three teams in this league Soquel, Santa Cruz and Harbor all went 0-5 in preseason.

West Valley. Mount Pleasant is a clear favorite and will have to get by Yerba Buena and Overfelt. Not likely to see an at-large team from this league.

PAL-Bay. This week’s showdown between unbeaten Menlo and Half Moon Bay figures to decide the league championship. Hillsdale has shown a dynamic offense but allows a lot of points. Woodside should be in the middle of the pack with a chance at an at-large berth. Kings Academy played a weak non-league schedule and it is not clear if their young team can must the 3 or 4 league wins they will need for an at-large berth. A lot of parity in this league

PAL-Lake. Jefferson beat San Mateo and will face challenges from Carlmont and Capuchino to win the league. Unlikely an at-large team will manifest itself from this league. This league has a fair amount of parity as well.

Santa Teresa. Lincoln should win and will vacate its spot for its Thanksgiving Day game. Silver Creek looks solid as the team that will receive the automatic berth. Independence has a good shot an at-large spot but will have to fend off Westmont for this position and avoid an upset by San Jose.

Monterey-Pacific. North Salinas looks like a clear favorite to win this league. The remaining teams are highly inconsistent and keep beating each other. It doesn’t look like the runner-up will emerge with enough points for an at-large spot.
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PalBooster, I think you need to correct Riordan. If you follow CalPreps ratings, they would go undefeated and finish at 10-0 and be #1 seed. You have them at 9-1.
 
joebl said:
PalBooster, I think you need to correct Riordan. If you follow CalPreps ratings, they would go undefeated and finish at 10-0 and be #1 seed. You have them at 9-1.
Click to expand...

Joebl,

You could be right - when I did this - even though Riordan is the highest rated team in the WCAL at this point, their chances of going undefeated were less than 50% - hence the 9-1 projection. With additional adjustments in the data base they are assigned a 55% chance of going 10-0. As we get to the last 2 weeks I will follow calpreps a little more closely as their predictions become more accurate - the next couple of weeks will still see a lot of changes in calprep rankings. Historically, regardless of the quality of the team, running the table in the WCAL has been difficult and Riordan faces three more stern tests against opponents where a couple of untimely turnovers or just an off week can lead to a loss. If they do go 10-0 they will get two more points and be the top DIII open seed.
 
CCS play-off predictions – Week 7

Four leagues have the two league favorites squaring off this weekend in contests that could well decide league championships. Palma plays Salinas, Wilcox challenges Milpitas, Oak Grove plays Live Oak, and Mountain View squares off with Santa Clara.

No change in the teams projected in the open division and only one change (Kings Academy instead of Woodside) in the non-open division this week.

Open Play-offs

Saratoga is projected as the final at-large and gets bumped down although I have them in a tie with Willow Glen and Terra Nova for the final spot. Since Terra Nova beat Willow Glen, Willow Glen could not win a tie breaker.

Projections with CBED numbers, projected records and points


Open Division I

8. Palo Alto 1969 4-6 20 vs 1. Bellarmine 3300 9-1 29.25
5. Menlo-Atherton 5-5 2157 23.5 vs. 4. San Benito 2877 7-3 24.5
6. Piedmont Hills 2245 6-4 22 vs 3. Salinas 2616 7-3 27
7. Alvarez 2496 4-6 18.5 vs 2. Milpitas 3113 8-2 28.5


Open Division II

8. Los Gatos 1875 7-3 25 vs 1. Oak Grove 1940 8-2 28.5
5. Mitty 1744 7-3 25.5 vs 4. Wilcox 1937 8-2 26.5
6 Leigh 1686 8-2 25.5 vs 3. St. Francis 1731 7-3 26.5
7. Pioneer 1564 4-6 19 vs 2. Valley Christian 1457 7-3 27


Open Division III


8. Aragon 1431 6-4 19 vs 1. Palma 754 9-1 31.5
5. Burlingame 1342 9-1 26.5 vs 4. Live Oak 1061 9-1 28
6. Aptos 1418 6-4 24 vs 3. Sacred Heart Prep 604 8-2 30
7. Monte Vista Chr. 815 7-3 23 vs 2. Riordan 1354 9-1 30.25


A teams projected not to make the play-offs: Serra (ineligible), SI, SHC, Monterey, Christopher, Sequoia, Terra Nova, Leland, Santa Teresa, Willow Glen, Homestead and Fremont.


Non-Open Play-offs

Changes here are the Kings Academy is projected into the play-offs instead of Woodside and moves Saratoga from Division II to Division I. Half Moon Bay’s win over Menlo changed the seeding for these two teams.

Non-Open Division I

8. Saratoga 1363 4-6 17 vs 1. North Salinas 1925 8-2 24.5
5. Mt. Pleasant 1472 8-2 20.5 vs 4. Santa Clara 1913 9-1 21.0
6. Soledad 1369 7-3 20.5 vs 3. Silver Creek 2479 9-1 23.5
7. Independence 3260 6-4 19.5 vs 2. Hillsdale 1397 8-2 23.5

Note: Seeds 5 and 6 are interchangeable as they are a tie.

Non-Open Division II

8. Jefferson 1139 8-2 19.5 vs 1. Half Moon Bay 1013 10-0 26.5
5. Scotts Valley 781 7-3 21 vs 4. Pacific Grove 594 8-2 22.5
6. Gonzales 761 7-3 20 vs 3. Menlo 578 7-3 23.5
7. Kings Academy 591 7-3 19 vs 2. Carmel 867 8-2 24.5

Projected bubble teams:

San Lorenzo Valley 807 6-4 18.5
Seaside 6-4 18
Mountain View 1837 7-3 17

League Projections

Deanza. Big game this week between Wilcox and Milpitas. If Milpitas wins they will very likely be sole league champion. A Wilcox win likely creates a three way tie between Wilcox, Milpitas and Los Gatos. Homestead enters a critical two game stretch where they likely need to beat either Saratoga this week or Palo Alto next week to get into the play-offs. This week’s Saratoga vs Homestead game will be a big determinant for both teams in making-offs.

Monterey Gabilan. The winner of this weeks Palma and Salinas game has the inside track to win the league. San Benito and Monte Vista Christian are still clear favorites to gain the last two automatic spots. The winner of the Christopher and Alvarez further ahead in the season will likely determine which team gets an at-large spot from this league.

WCAL. The WCAL slog continues with the best guess now is that Bellarmine and Riordan end up as Co-champions. Current league leader St. Francis hasn’t put up impressive totals, but has found a way to win each week. They face a tough four game stretch to end the year. SI and SHC both need to find an upset to have a chance to get into the play-off mix.

PAL Bay. Early league play has separated SHP, Burlingame and Menlo-Atherton from the bottom three teams. The round robin results between Aragon, Terra Nova and Sequoia will determine the league’s fourth automatic qualifier. Terra Nova and Aragon will have a chance at an at-large berth if they finish 5th in league.

Mt. Hamilton. The winner of this weeks Oak Grove vs Live Oak game will likely determine the league champion. Leigh and Pioneer are best positioned for the other two automatic berths from the league. Piedmont Hills should get an at-large berth

Non-Open Leagues

El Camino. The Santa Clara and Mountain View showdown this week will determine the league champion. If Santa Clara were to stumble against Mountain View they would still likely get an at-large bid.

Mission Trail. Carmel and Pacific Grove are still on track for their week 10 showdown for the league championship although Pacific Grove had to sweat out a 7-6 win over Stevenson last week. Both teams would get automatic berths. Soledad and Gonzales remain in good positions to get at-large berths from this league.

Santa Cruz Coast. This weeks San Lorenzo Valley and Scotts Valley game should determine who will gain second place in this league and the second automatic berth. Aptos should continue their march to a league champions

West Valley. Big game is Mt. Pleasant against Overfelt with the winner being a favorite to win the league. Gunderson is still undefeated but has yet to play Mt. Pleasant and Overfelt.

PAL-Ocean. Half Moon Bay gained the inside track to win the league with their last minute win over Menlo. Hillsdale has looked very strong in league play and is also undefeated in league. Menlo remains in a good position to gain an at-large berth. The winner of a future match-up between Kings Academy and Woodside will likely also gain an at-large berth.

PAL-Lake. Jefferson got by Carlmont and it looks like the only team that can challenge them for the league title is Capuchino.

Santa Teresa. No major changes here. Lincoln is still on track to win the league with Silver Creek and Independence positioned to get at-large spots.

Monterey-Pacific. North Salinas still a clear favorite to win this league. Seaside looks to have bounced back from injury problems and is positioned to finish second but is likely to fall short of an at-large berth.
 
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As others have echoed, great job of organizing and presenting complex information. Question---Curious about the Aptos "Opt-Up" decision. On what are you basing your assumption that they will opt up to the Open Division playoffs? Has their coach made their intentions public? Or is this just a gut feeling on your part?

Again, thanks for the info!
 
Roodypoo,

No first hand knowledge of Aptos opt-up decision. More of a gut feel and feeling based on Aptos is building their program. I do know that Coach Blankenship aspires to build a program that can compete at the regional and state level and he created one of the most difficult non-conference schedules of any CCS school. Schools won't have to declare until the selection meeting when they will have a good idea of how healthy they are for the play-offs and have a good sense of who they might face in their bracket. I think Aptos would be the third best team in a DIII open play-off bracket behind Riordan and Palma (who they lost to earlier 24-13). I just don't see them having much to gain by being in the non-open bracket and winning a CCS title in one of those divisions.
 
CCS play-off predictions – Week 8

The five favorites, Palma, Milpitas, Oak Grove, Santa Clara and Mt. Pleasant won their games last week against their closest challengers and are in great positions to win their respective leagues. The big upsets occurred in the PAL Bay where Menlo-Atherton beat league favorite Sacred Heart Prep and Terra Nova beat Aragon.

This week league showdowns between league’s top two rated teams include North Salinas vs Seaside, Capuchino vs Jefferson and Hillsdale vs Half Moon Bay.

Open Play-offs

One change to the open field projections based on this week’s results. Terra Nova was added to the field. Aragon is slated to take Saratoga’s at-large spot and get bumped down to the non-open division.

Projections with CBED numbers, projected records and points

Open Division I

8. Palo Alto 1969 4-6 20 vs 1. Bellarmine 3300 9-1 29.25
5.San Benito 2877 7-3 24.5 vs. 4. Menlo-Atherton 6-4 2157 25.0
6. Piedmont Hills 2245 6-4 20 vs 3. Salinas 2616 7-3 27
7. Alvarez 2496 4-6 19.5 vs 2. Milpitas 3113 8-2 28.5

Open Division II

8. Pioneer 1564 4-6 19 vs 1. St. Francis 1731 8-2 28.5
5. Leigh 1686 8-2 25.5 vs 4. Wilcox 1937 8-2 26.5
6 Los Gatos 1875 7-3 25 vs 3. Valley Christian 1457 7-3 27
7. Mitty 1744 6-4 23.5 vs 2. Oak Grove 1940 8-2 28.5

Open Division III

8. Terra Nova 1079 4-6 19 vs 1. Palma 754 9-1 31.5
5. Sacred Heart Prep 604 6-4 24.5 vs 4. Live Oak 1061 9-1 28
6. Aptos 1418 6-4 24 vs 3. Riordan 1354 9-1 29.25
7. Monte Vista Chr. 815 7-3 23 vs 2. Burlingame 1342 10-0 30.0

A teams projected not to make the play-offs: Serra (ineligible), SI, SHC, Monterey, Christopher, Sequoia, Leland, Santa Teresa, Willow Glen, Saratoga, Homestead and Fremont.

Non-Open Play-offs

Non-Open Division I

8. Aragon 1431 5-5 18 vs 1. North Salinas 1925 8-2 24.5
5. Mt. Pleasant 1472 8-2 20.5 vs 4. Santa Clara 1913 9-1 21.0
6. Soledad 1369 7-3 20.5 vs 3. Silver Creek 2479 9-1 23.5
7. Independence 3260 6-4 19.5 vs 2. Hillsdale 1397 8-2 23.5

Note: Seeds 5 and 6 are interchangeable as they are a tie.


Non-Open Division II

8. Gonzales 761 7-3 20 vs 1. Half Moon Bay 1013 10-0 26.5
5. Scotts Valley 781 7-3 21 vs 4. Kings Academy 591 8-2 21
6. Menlo 578 6-4 20.5 vs 3. Pacific Grove 594 8-2 22.5
7. Jefferson 1139 8-2 19.5 vs 2. Carmel 867 8-2 23.5

4 vs 5 would be a coin flip for home field

Projected bubble teams:
San Lorenzo Valley 807 6-4 18.5
Seaside 6-4 18
Mountain View 1837 7-3 17

League Projections

Deanza. The top of this league looks settled with Milpitas as league champion and Los Gatos and Wilcox taking automatic qualifying spots. The fourth AQ spot will go to Palo Alto if they get by Homestead this week. Saratoga will likely finish with 17 points in 5th place but will likely not make the play-off field if current projections hold. Homestead needs to upset Palo Alto to have a chance to make the field.

Monterey Gabilan. Palma is in solid position to win the league outright. Salinas, San Benito and Monta Vista Christian are heavily favored to take the other three automatic spots. The week 9 game between Alvarez and Christopher will determine 5th place with the winner likely to get an at-large berth.

WCAL. Currently Riordan and Bellarmine project out as co-champions but St. Francis and Valley Christian are also currently tied for the league lead. These four plus Mitty are virtual locks to make the play-off field. SI and SHC would need to beat one of the leagues top six teams to have a chance at an at-large berth.

PAL Bay. Menlo-Atherton’s upset of Sacred Heart Prep makes Burlingame a slight favorite over Menlo-Atherton to win the league. Burlingame plays Sacred Heart Prep this week. All three of these teams will get automatic spots. Terra Nova took the lead on getting the leagues last automatic spot with their win over Aragon last week. If Aragon beats Sequoia they should have enough points to get an at-large spot.

Mt. Hamilton. Oak Grove took control of the league race with a win over previously undefeated Live Oak. Pioneer and Leigh are positioned with Live Oak and Oak Grove to get the league’s four play-off spots. Piedmont Hills was upset by winless Leland and will need to rebound with a win over Santa Teresa this week to assure an at-large berth.

Non-Open Leagues

El Camino. Santa Clara only needs to win two of its final three games to lock down the automatic spot from this league.

Mission Trail. No changes here as Carmel and Pacific Grove are both undefeated and continue towards a week 10 showdown for the league championship. This league gets two automatic berths. Soledad and Gonzales continue to be well positioned to get at-large berths.

Santa Cruz Coast. Scotts Valley won a five overtime thriller over San Lorenzo Valley and likely clinched the leagues second play-off spot. Aptos is a prohibitive favorite to win the league. San Lorenzo Valley is currently projected to be the first team out of the play-offs and will need some help to make the field.

West Valley. Mt. Pleasant beat their highest ranked league opponent Overfelt to solidify their position as league favorite. Gunderson is still unbeaten in league but still must face Overfelt and Mt. Pleasant.

PAL-Ocean. This weeks contest between Half Moon Bay and Hillside features the leagues two remaining unbeaten teams. Kings Academy’s upset over Menlo solidifies their position as an at-large team. Menlo with a win over South San Francisco this week will likely secure enough points for an at-large spot.

PAL-Lake. The winner of this weeks game between Jefferson and Capuchino will win the league and get the leagues only play-off spot.

Santa Teresa. Lincoln survived a tough challenge from Westmont to retain the league lead. Silver Creek and Independence held their spots for gaining at-large berths.

Monterey-Pacific. North Salinas plays Seaside this week and they are the two top ranked teams in the league, but Seaside already has a loss in league. A Seaside win would likely vault them into the play-off field. North Salinas is well positioned to make it as league champion or as an at-large team. North Monterey County is still undefeated in league, but has their hardest games ahead of them.
 
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The DII Open will be the fun one to watch. St. Francis and VC look strongest now and have to be the favorites but Wilcox, Los Gatos, Mitty, and Oak Grove all have looked real good in games but laid eggs in other games. If any one of these teams gets hot they can take it.
 
CCS play-off predictions – Two weeks to go – heading into week 9

Open Play-offs

One change to the open field projections based on this week’s results. Terra Nova was added to the field. Aragon is slated to take Saratoga’s at-large spot. Either Terra Nova or Piedmont Hills and get bumped down to the non-open division if Aptos opts up.

Automatic Qualifiers
WCAL – Bellarmine, Valley Christian, St. Francis, Riordan
Monterey Gabilan – Palma, San Benito, Salinas, Monte Vista Christian
Mt. Hamilton – Oak Grove, Live Oak, Leigh, Pioneer
DeAnza – Milpitas, Los Gatos, Wilcox, Palo Alto
PAL Bay – Menlo-Atherton, Burlingame, Sacred Heart Prep, Terra Nova

At-Large teams – 4 qualify
1. Mitty 23.5 projected to beat SHC and lose to St. Francis
2. Aragon 19 projected to lose last 2 games, assumes pt for Lincoln
3. Winner of Alvarez 18.5 vs Christopher 18.5 (assumes beats Monterey in week 10) – loser will end up with 16.5 pts.
4. Piedmont Hills 18 assume losses to Oak Grove and Live Oak
5. Saratoga 18 assume lose to Milpitas win over Fremont

Projections with CBED numbers, projected records and points
Open Division I

8. Palo Alto 1969 4-6 20 vs 1. Bellarmine 3300 9-1 29.75
5. Salinas 2616 7-3 27 vs. 4. Menlo-Atherton 6-4 2157 28.0
6. San Benito 2877 7-3 24.5 vs 3. Oak Grove 1940 8-2 29.0
7. Alvarez 2496 4-6 19.5 vs 2. Milpitas 3113 8-2 28.5
Note – if Terra Nova moves down then Piedmont Hills would be the #8 seed and Oak Grove would return to Division II

Open Division II

8. Pioneer 1564 4-6 19 vs 1. St. Francis 1731 9 31.75
5. Los Gatos 1875 7-3 25 vs 4. Leigh 1686 8-2 25.5
6 Mitty 1744 6-4 23.5 vs 3. Wilcox 1937 8-2 26.5
7. Aragon 1467 5-5 19 vs 2. Valley Christian 1457 8-2 29

If Terra Nova would get bumped down to the Non-Open Oak Grove would go into DII and Valley Christian would move to DIII.

Open Division III

8. Terra Nova 1079 4-6 18 vs 1. Palma 754 9-1 31.5
5. Aptos 1418 6-4 24 vs 4. Burlingame 1342 8-2 25.5
6. Sacred Heart Prep 604 7-3 25 vs 3. Riordan 1354 7-3 27
7. Monte Vista Chr. 815 7-3 23 vs 2. Live Oak 1061 9-1 28

A teams projected not to make the play-offs: Serra (ineligible), SI, SHC, Monterey, Christopher, Sequoia, Leland, Santa Teresa, Willow Glen, Saratoga, Homestead and Fremont.


Non-Open Play-offs

Capuchino replaced Jefferson in the field. Independence was knocked out and San Lorenzo Valley claimed the last at-large spot

Automatic Berths
Mission Trail – Pacific Grove, Soledad
Santa Cruz Coast – Aptos, Scotts Valley
PAL Ocean – Hillsdale
PAL Lake – Capuchino
El Camino – Santa Clara
West Valley – Mt. Pleasant
Santa Teresa – Silver Creek (replaces Lincoln)
Monterey Pacific – North Salinas

At-large

1. Half Moon Bay 23.5 assume wins over Kings Academy and Terra Nova
2/3. Kings Academy 20 assumes loss to HMB win over Jefferson
2/3. Gonzales 20 assumes wins over Marina and King City
4/5. Menlo 19.5 assumes losses to Hillsdale and SHP
4/5. San Lorenzo Valley 19.5 assumes lose to Aptos win over Harbor
6. Carmel 18.5 assumes win over King City loss to Pacific Grove
7. Seaside 18 assumes wins over Watsonville
8. Westmont 17.5 assumes win over Branham loss to Silver Creek

Non-Open Division I

8. Capuchino 1159 6-4 17.5 vs 1. Hillsdale 1397 9-1 27.5
5. Santa Clara 1913 9-1 21.0 vs 4. Soledad 1369 8-2 22.5
6. Mt. Pleasant 1472 8-2 20.5 vs 3. Silver Creek 2479 9-1 23.5
7. Piedmont Hills 2245 5-5 18 vs 2. North Salinas 1925 8-2 24.5

Non-Open Division II

8. San Lorenzo Valley 807 6-4 19.5 vs 1. Pacific Grove 594 9-1 25.5
5. Scotts Valley 781 7-3 20 vs 4. Kings Academy 591 8-2 20
6. Menlo 578 6-4 19.5 vs 3. Gonzales 761 7-3 20
7. Carmel 867 8-2 18.5 vs 2. Half Moon Bay 1013 10-0 23.5
3 VS 4 vs 5 would be a coin flip as would Menlo and SLV.


Projected bubble teams:
Seaside 1040 6-4 18
Mountain View 1837 7-3 17.5
Westmont 1570 6-4 17.5

League Projections

Deanza. Absent a monumental upset the field is set from the Deanza. Milpitas will be the league champion. Los Gatos, Wilcox and Palo Alto will get the remaining three automatic berths. Saratoga picks up an extra point with Hillsdale’s win but I have them in a tie with 18 points for the final at-large berth with Piedmont Hills who defeated Saratoga in the regular season.

Monterey Gabilan. Palma plays rival San Benito and needs a win to be the sole league champion. San Benito, Salinas and Monte Vista Christian are all set for the other three automatic spots. This weeks Alvarez Christopher game basically becomes a play-in game with the winner getting an at-large spot and the loser not making the play-offs.

WCAL. Big game between Bellarmine and Valley Christian who are tied atop the league standings. League will go down to the last week to decide the league champion or champions. Top four teams for the play offs are set with Bellarmine, Valley Christian, St. Francis and Riordan taking the automatic spots and Mitty will be the top ranked at-large team in the section.

PAL Bay. A Menlo-Atherton win over Burlingame will give them an outright league championship. A Burlingame win means a likely three- way tie between MA, Burlingame and Sacred Heart Prep. A similar situation is in play for fourth place as Terra Nova takes on Sequoia. A Terra Nova win gives them the leagues fourth automatic spot. A Sequoia win likely means a three way tie for fourth between Aragon, Terra Nova and Sequoia. Aragon would likely win a tiebreaker based on most total CCS points.

Mt. Hamilton. Oak Grove is rolling toward another league championship with Live Oak in a solid second place. Leigh and Pioneer figure to get the last two automatic spots. Piedmont Hills, even though they will likely end the year on a six game losing streak and will finish last in the league will have enough points to get the final at-large berth.

Non-Open Leagues
El Camino. Santa Clara is in the drivers seat here. There is a scenario where if underdog Los Altos pulls off consequetive upsets of Mt. View this week and Santa Clara in week 10 they would win the league but it is an unlikely scenario

Mission Trail. Soledad had a big win over Carmel and is well positioned to finish league with only one loss that will either leave them alone in second place or as a tri-champion with Pacific Grove and Carmel. Carmel must win this week against King City to be in a position to get a final at-large berth even with a week 10 loss to Pacific Grove. Gonzales is still well positioned to get an at-large berth.

Santa Cruz Coast. No changes here as Aptos continues to roll toward a league championship with Scotts Valley getting a second spot. San Lorenzo Valley got good news this week picking up a likely extra point with Capuchino’s win over Jefferson. This will likely put them in the field as an at-large team.

West Valley. With two weeks to go Mt. Pleasant and Gunderson are still undefeated. Gunderson faces one loss Overfelt this week and faces off with favored Mt. Pleasant in week 10.

PAL-Ocean. Hillsdale’s last second victory over Half Moon Bay clinched the leagues automatic spot as league champion regardless of their result with Menlo this week. Half Moon Bay and Menlo look to have enough points already to qualify as at-large teams. Last year Menlo did not get a point for playing the AAA regular season champion (SF league), but I believe the CCS changed their rule for this year). Kings Academy at 7-1 probably needs a win this week against Half Moon Bay or in week 10 against Jefferson to get into the field due to their weak non-league schedule.

PAL-Lake. Capuchino beat Jefferson 49-44 to remain the lone undefeated team in the league. They need only one win in the final two weeks against Carlmont and Mills to clinch their play-off spot.

Santa Teresa. An interesting issue here as Lincoln is likely to get through week 10 with a 6-0 league record and one more league game to play on Thanksgiving. The question is for providing points to other teams that they played in pre-season (key team is Aragon) is if CCS will recognize them as sole league champion if they a ½ game lead with one to play. Silver Creek has amassed enough points to make the field as an at-large. Westmont will need a week 10 win over Silver Creek to make the play-offs.

Monterey-Pacific. North Salinas and North Monterey County square off as the league’s last two undefeated teams and the winner will take the league’s automatic spot. If North Salinas losses they will still make it as an at-large, but NMC with a loss will not make the field. Seaside is currently the first team out with 18 points and will need some help to make the play-offs.
 
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Throughout your posts...which are amazingly excellent...the at-large cutoff continues to drop. You now see it around 18.0. What are the chances that the cutoff drops lower in the next couple of weeks? Is that likely?
 
I don't think it will drop lower as many of the teams are already there or don't need to do much to make it.

There is an equal chance it could creep higher. If NMC beats North Salinas, North Salinas would move to the at large pool with 20+ points, or if Westmont upsets Silver Creek in week 10 they would have 19.5 points and knock out a team with 18.5.

The teams that could viably drop in the at-large pool to below 18.5 are: Gonzales if they lose to King City in week 10 would have 18 points. Kings Academy if they lose to both Half Moon Bay and Jefferson would finish with 18 points.

The other teams in the pool like Half Moon Bay and Menlo (2 losses and they still have 19.5). I just can't see San Lorenzo Valley losing to Harbor and finishing with less than 19.5.
 
Great job on this PAL Booster. Really helps as an AD looking it up. I do think if it came down to us (Piedmont HIlls) and TNT for movement we actually hold the common opponent tie breaker over them with Willow Glen.
 
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Coach Simos,

I will defer to you if you have better information, but I thought when they looked at common opponents they only considered wins and losses and not point differential. Both Piedmont Hills and Terra Nova beat Willow Glen. Piedmont Hills had a better point differential in that game but I don't know if that is part of the consideration.
 
Yep you are right. I was thinking WG beat TN. One point game...I mis-read it. I think thats a coin toss.
 
I did also just get a call from someone way "more in the know" than me. I guess because of Lincoln's Big Bone game and the fact that they could lose they don't award a bonus point for them winning the league and no one gets that point. I was surprised about that but this guy knows his stuff.
Thanks again for all you do on this. I love looking at the point totals.
 
Coach Simos,

Thanks for the information on Lincoln - I asked someone at CCS and it was pretty clear that they had not thought about it. If it plays out as expected Lincoln even with a loss would be a co-champion so it will be interesting to see in that circumstance if they will award at least 0.5 points to Aragon - who may need it to make the play-offs. If they end up in a tie with Saratoga (by losing to Hillsdale) Saratoga would have a win over Hillsdale and get the tie-breaker over Aragon. Could make for an interesting discussion at the selection meeting.
 
Great work as usual, PALBooster.

As some of these final games are played one thing to remember is that the teams at the top are not only playing for league titles, but they are also positioning themselves for potential selection to the NorCal regionals if they can just get to the finals (CCS bylaws state the the Open runner-ups to advance will be based on playoff qualification points). Right now, that pecking order would appear to be:

1. St. Francis
2. Palma
3. Bellarmine
4. Valley Christian
5. Oak Grove
6. Milpitas
7. Menlo-Atherton/Live Oak
9. Salinas/Riordan

Of these teams, Bellarmine is heavily favored to win the D-I Open outright, but it would get very interesting if VC is placed in D-III with Palma and Riordan. That could open the door for either Oak Grove or Milpitas.
 
CCS play-offs are set (almost) going into the last week

Open Play-offs
Going into week 10 all 20 automatic qualifiers have been determined as well as two of the at-large spots. All that remains to be determined are the final two at-large spots and final seeding. Final CCS point totals are important as they are used both for seeding and could well be the mechanism that determines which two of the three open division runner-ups get to continue to regional play (assuming they have not played each other head to head or have common opponents).


Automatic Qualifiers – 20

WCAL – Bellarmine, Valley Christian, St. Francis, Riordan
Monterey Gabilan – Palma, San Benito, Salinas, Monte Vista Christian
Mt. Hamilton – Oak Grove, Live Oak, Leigh, Pioneer
DeAnza – Milpitas, Los Gatos, Wilcox, Palo Alto
PAL Bay – Menlo-Atherton, Burlingame, Sacred Heart Prep, Terra Nova

At-Large teams – 4 qualify and Mitty and Alvarez already have two of the spots. Three teams are contending for the last two spots (Aragon, Piedmont Hills and Saratoga). Three other teams must generate a monumental upset in week 10 to have a chance at the play-offs.

In
1. Mitty 23.5 projected to beat SHC (they are in even if they lose with 21.5 points)
2. Aragon 19 points - assumes loss to Hillsdale but Lincoln win (If Lincoln losses Aragon has 18 points)
3. Alvarez 18.83 assume they lose to Palma this week
4. Piedmont Hills 18 assume they lose to Live Oak this week
5. Saratoga 18 assume win over Fremont this week - Need Lincoln to lose to Independence to push Aragon to 18. A Lincoln loss and Silver Creek win will give Saratoga 18.5 points.
Long shots
6. Santa Teresa 16.5 – must beat Oak Grove to get to 18.5
7. St. Ignatius 16 – must beat Bellarmine to get to 18
8. Homestead 16 – must beat Milpitas to get to 18

If the three teams end up tied. Piedmont Hills holds a tie breaker advantage over Saratoga having beaten them head to head. Saratoga will hold a tie breaker advantage over Aragon as they beat Hillsdale and if the teams end up tied it will mean Aragon lost to Hillsdale. There is no direct tiebreaker between Aragon and Piedmont Hills. Not clear on the CCS language for a three way tiebreaker since the head to head and common opponents do not go across all three teams. If this is the interpretation it will be a blind draw. An alternative reading would be that Saratoga can never finish above Piedmont Hills (due to head to head loss) and Aragon can never finish above Saratoga (due to common opponent tiebreaker) therefore Piedmont Hills is the first team in and Saratoga is the second team in.

The other unknown that will impact the field is whether the Santa Cruz Coast and/or Mission Trail champions will utilize their option and elect to participate in the open play-offs or if they will remain in the non-open play-offs. I have been projecting throughout that Aptos will elect to opt up and Pacific Grove will opt not to go into the open, but I have no first hand knowledge that this is the case. Given Aptos struggle to get past San Lorenzo Valley it is not a certainty that they will elect to move up. Pacific Grove will be the designated champion for the Mission Trail League win or loss in week 10. The Santa Cruz Coast champion will be the winner of the week 10 game between Aptos and Scotts Valley. I doubt Scotts Valley would opt up if they upset Aptos and win their league.

If one team opts up either Piedmont Hills or Terra Nova (assuming they lose to HMB) would move down. Whether it is Aptos, Pacific Grove or Scotts Valley opting up they would go in DIII Open. If Piedmont Hills went down then Oak Grove would move to DI and Aragon would move to DII. If Terra Nova went down then DI and DII would stay the same. If both league champions opted up they would both go in DIII, both Terra Nova and Piedmont Hills would go to the non-open play-offs, Aragon would go to DII and Oak Grove to DI.

Projections with CBED numbers, projected records and points

Open Division I
8. Piedmont Hills 2205 4-6 18 vs 1. Bellarmine 3300 9-1 29.25
5. Menlo-Atherton 6-4 2157 24 vs 4. Salinas 2616 6-4 25
6. Palo Alto 1969 4-6 20 vs 3. San Benito 2877 7-3 25.5
7. Alvarez 2496 4-6 18.83 vs 2. Milpitas 3113 8-2 28.5

Open Division II
8. Pioneer 1564 4-6 19 vs 1. St. Francis 1731 9-1 31.75
5. Leigh 1686 8-2 25.5 vs 4. Wilcox 1937 8-2 26.5
6 Mitty 1744 6-4 23.5 vs 3. Oak Grove 1940 8-2 29
7. Los Gatos 1875 7-3 25 vs 2. Valley Christian 1457 8-2 29

Open Division III

8. Terra Nova 1079 4-6 18 vs 1. Palma 754 9-1 31.33
5. Sacred Heart Prep 604 7-3 25.5 vs 4. Riordan 1354 7-3 26.67
6.Monte Vista Chr. 815 8-2 25.5 vs 3. Burlingame 1342 9-1 28
7. Aragon 5-5 1431 5-5 19 vs 2. Live Oak 1061 9-1 28
2 and 3 are interchangeable as are 5 and 6 and 7 and 8 but Terra Nova or SHP can’t play Burlingame in round 1.

A teams projected not to make the play-offs: Serra (ineligible), SI, SHC, Monterey, Christopher, Aragon, Sequoia, Leland, Santa Teresa, Willow Glen, Homestead and Fremont.

Non-Open Play-offs
Nine of the ten automatic spots are already clinched. The winner of Westmont vs Silver Creek will grab the 10th automatic spot. League championships will be decided in the Mission Trail and Santa Cruz Coast Leagues

Automatic Berths
Mission Trail – Pacific Grove, Soledad
Santa Cruz – Aptos, Scotts Valley
PAL Ocean – Hillsdale
PAL Lake – Capuchino
El Camino – Santa Clara
West Valley – Mt. Pleasant
Santa Teresa – Silver Creek or Westmont (replaces Lincoln)
Monterey Pacific – North Salinas

At-large
Half Moon Bay, Menlo, and Carmel have clinched spots. San Lorenzo Valley gets in with a win over 0-9 Harbor and Kings Academy is in with a win over Jefferson. Both will be heavily favored in week 10. The final spot would likely come down to Westmont or Gonzales. Mountain View is also in the mix beat they would have to beat Los Gatos.

Westmont is in with 19.5 points as an automatic qualifier if they beat Silver Creek and Silver Creek would take an at-large spot. Westmont can get in if they lose and Gonzales losses to King City and Mountain View losses to Los Gatos.

Mountain View is in with 19 points if the beat Los Gatos.

Gonzales is in if Westmont and Mountain View lose and they beat King City

1. Half Moon Bay 23.5 assume win over Terra Nova
2. Kings Academy 20 assumes win over Jefferson
3. Menlo 19.83 assumes loss to SHP
4. San Lorenzo Valley 19.5 assumes win over Harbor
5. Carmel 18.83 assumes loss to Pacific Grove
6. Gonzales 18 assumes win over King City
7. Westmont 17.5 assumes loss to Silver Creek

Non-Open Division I
8. Capuchino 1159 6-4 17.33 vs 1. Hillsdale 1397 9-1 27.5
5. Soledad 1369 8-2 22.5 vs 4. Silver Creek 2479 9-1 23.5
6. Santa Clara 1913 9-1 21.5 vs 3. North Salinas 1925 8-2 24
7. Mt. Pleasant 1472 8-2 20.5 vs v 2. Aptos 1418 6-4 24

Non-Open Division II
8. San Lorenzo Valley 807 6-4 19.5 vs 1. Pacific Grove 594 9-1 26.5
5. Menlo 578 6-4 19.83 vs 4. Scotts Valley 781 7-3 20
6. Carmel 867 6-4 18.83 vs 3. Kings Academy 591 8-2 20
7. Gonzales 761 6-4 18 vs 2. Half Moon Bay 1013 9-1 23.5

3 and 4 could be flipped (which would also flip 5 and 6 as Menlo can't play Kings Academy in the first round)
 
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