I know there is still plenty of basketball left but does anyone have a rough idea?? Or an early prediction based off current body of work?? I know NCS favors head to head wins. Also league champions.
NCS Divsion 1 Seeing Predictions?
- Thread starter MoneyTeam0115
- Start date
No DeLa? I believe Foothill needs to win their last 3 games to qualify. They should win the first 2 vs Cal & Livermore, but the rivalry game with AV on the final day will be a battle.
Pitt and/or Antioch may also make the field. The last few games will determine the ultimate seedlings. If CVC wins out, they should be #1, but if LL knocks them off and Dublin wins out, I could see a reversal at the top.
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I don’t really do kinda thing all that much other than maybe predicting playoff champs and most-likely dark horse winners/upsetters...
But I’ll have time to look into it deeper after I get home from my Carondelet/Menlo tour tonight, and maybe I can put up some sort of list or something tomorrow while everyone else is watching that other thing on TV with all the snappy ads...
But I’ll have time to look into it deeper after I get home from my Carondelet/Menlo tour tonight, and maybe I can put up some sort of list or something tomorrow while everyone else is watching that other thing on TV with all the snappy ads...
If they go heavy on the head to head, then the top 10 could go like this:
1) CVC beat Berkeley
2) Berkeley beat Dublin
3) Dublin beat Heritage
4) Heritage Beat Logan
5) Logan beat Fairfield, who beat DLS
6) DLS beat Alameda, who beat CP
7) CP beat Foothill twice, who beat MV
8) MV beat DV
9) DV beat Liberty & Pitt
10) Granada beat AV
*Of course, many of these teams still have games with other playoff qualifiers which can and will change things. The above was just based on the head to head match ups that have already taken place.
Dela could beat Dublin in the finals of the EBAL to be league champs.
That's why I put the disclaimer on that head to head listing that many games were left and things are bound to change. Dublin could also win the rematch. Time will tell.
@youseechief i highly doubt it. They are not better than CVC Dublin Berkeley Heritage or Logan. I can see College Park beating them as well
On paper I completely agree with you. I just think that the defensive discipline frustrates less experienced programs. Their name and defense travel well. Whoever they play will be playing at least 5 on 6 and possibly 5 on 7.
I've seen nearly all (edit: Okay, about half) of these D1 teams play at least once in-person this season, so starting with the above list and adjusting how I see it:
This is my own current ranking *today* based on eyeball test (with help from MaxPreps to fill in gray areas), not necessarily what I think the committee will do on Selection Day.
1. Dublin (loaded with Beasley and Nielsen; coaching may be suspect... a little. Some other teams have seemingly known everything they were gonna do,
and a very few have been able to overcome the Gaels' talent edge due to this. However, they haven't lost since Gridley.)
2: Clayton Valley Charter (I think they've been *slightly* overrated by polls and MaxPreps computers, but only a little bit... And they can do themselves a favor by beating LL this Tuesday... But that won't be easy, despite the fact they beat 'em 82-63 last time. Guess where I'm gonna be Tuesday?)
3. Heritage (I've only seen them play once, but it was the classic OT battle with Dublin, one of their 2 losses. Ned is one heck of a scorer! They seem to have a tendency to play up or down according to their opponent's level, but at their best they can beat anyone)
These top 3, in some order, are very unlikely to fall out unless a big upset happens... Even CVC, if they lost Tuesday, would not fall far if at all. Now it gets murky.
4. Berkeley (Haven't seen the Jackets play since the Tip-off Classic at Newark where they beat Dublin in a thriller. Other than O'Dowd, their league isn't very strong, so they've been floating under-the-radar while winning most league games pretty easily. Could sneak up and beat just about anybody, but I bet they're happy with the fact the Dragons are in another division)
5. DLS (Well... Not exactly a real entertaining team, but they're here for the wins... And they win often. And if they don't, their opponent has worked their hind-end off to earn it)
6. Logan (As usual, I haven't seen these guys play. I seem to miss them just about every year 'til the playoffs, so I'll just leave them here where Togos put 'em)
7. College Park (Started with two losses to quality opponents in their first three, than got rolling. Looked like they might be a true power for awhile, but then ran into LL, which may have put out their best effort of the year in beating the Falcons handily. Blowout losses to CVC and LL last week didn't help matters; they need to right the ship pretty quick)
A noticeable drop-off here...
8. Monte Vista (These guys never ever get blown out, a testament to coaching and toughness... But they have nine losses, mostly because they just can't score much)
9. Dougherty Valley (I've only seen these guys on the Cube when they beat DLS and have been told since that they were just en fuego shooting the ball that night. Not a lot of size on 'em, so they need that shooting to be strong in order to beat high-level teams)
10. Liberty (Hmm... I saw these guys beat Whitney at the Adidas Challenge up at Sheldon, but don't remember much... Perhaps cuz it was the 445th out of 446 games that day, or something like that... Anyway, looking at their sked indicates that and Deer Valley are their highest-quality wins)
11. Amador (Yet another I haven't seen in-person... From what I've heard, they seem to have talent, but never really have put it together. Just the right kind of team to have themselves a night and upset a high seed... Or get served a running-clock game)
12. Granada (Another I haven't seen live... They've split with Foothill and have more overall wins vs. a not-so-strong schedule)
13. Foothill (Doubtful they'll qualify, needing to win 3 straight to do so, but just in case, they have a close loss to DLS to hang their hats on. I haven't seen 'em in-person)
14. Freedom (These guys do play hard, full-court press nearly always, just not exactly terrific at it. Not sure if they even qualify at this point)
This is my own current ranking *today* based on eyeball test (with help from MaxPreps to fill in gray areas), not necessarily what I think the committee will do on Selection Day.
1. Dublin (loaded with Beasley and Nielsen; coaching may be suspect... a little. Some other teams have seemingly known everything they were gonna do,
and a very few have been able to overcome the Gaels' talent edge due to this. However, they haven't lost since Gridley.)
2: Clayton Valley Charter (I think they've been *slightly* overrated by polls and MaxPreps computers, but only a little bit... And they can do themselves a favor by beating LL this Tuesday... But that won't be easy, despite the fact they beat 'em 82-63 last time. Guess where I'm gonna be Tuesday?)
3. Heritage (I've only seen them play once, but it was the classic OT battle with Dublin, one of their 2 losses. Ned is one heck of a scorer! They seem to have a tendency to play up or down according to their opponent's level, but at their best they can beat anyone)
These top 3, in some order, are very unlikely to fall out unless a big upset happens... Even CVC, if they lost Tuesday, would not fall far if at all. Now it gets murky.
4. Berkeley (Haven't seen the Jackets play since the Tip-off Classic at Newark where they beat Dublin in a thriller. Other than O'Dowd, their league isn't very strong, so they've been floating under-the-radar while winning most league games pretty easily. Could sneak up and beat just about anybody, but I bet they're happy with the fact the Dragons are in another division)
5. DLS (Well... Not exactly a real entertaining team, but they're here for the wins... And they win often. And if they don't, their opponent has worked their hind-end off to earn it)
6. Logan (As usual, I haven't seen these guys play. I seem to miss them just about every year 'til the playoffs, so I'll just leave them here where Togos put 'em)
7. College Park (Started with two losses to quality opponents in their first three, than got rolling. Looked like they might be a true power for awhile, but then ran into LL, which may have put out their best effort of the year in beating the Falcons handily. Blowout losses to CVC and LL last week didn't help matters; they need to right the ship pretty quick)
A noticeable drop-off here...
8. Monte Vista (These guys never ever get blown out, a testament to coaching and toughness... But they have nine losses, mostly because they just can't score much)
9. Dougherty Valley (I've only seen these guys on the Cube when they beat DLS and have been told since that they were just en fuego shooting the ball that night. Not a lot of size on 'em, so they need that shooting to be strong in order to beat high-level teams)
10. Liberty (Hmm... I saw these guys beat Whitney at the Adidas Challenge up at Sheldon, but don't remember much... Perhaps cuz it was the 445th out of 446 games that day, or something like that... Anyway, looking at their sked indicates that and Deer Valley are their highest-quality wins)
11. Amador (Yet another I haven't seen in-person... From what I've heard, they seem to have talent, but never really have put it together. Just the right kind of team to have themselves a night and upset a high seed... Or get served a running-clock game)
12. Granada (Another I haven't seen live... They've split with Foothill and have more overall wins vs. a not-so-strong schedule)
13. Foothill (Doubtful they'll qualify, needing to win 3 straight to do so, but just in case, they have a close loss to DLS to hang their hats on. I haven't seen 'em in-person)
14. Freedom (These guys do play hard, full-court press nearly always, just not exactly terrific at it. Not sure if they even qualify at this point)
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@kiddman32 pretty accurate. I think CVC gets #1 seed. Wouldn’t be surprised if Berkeley gets seeded ahead of Dublin since they beat them head to head. Also i think Pitt and San Leandro will get remaining two spots. Pitt has some decent wins against Freedom and Liberty. I also think Logan gets seeded over De La having De La lost to Fairfield and Logan beat them the following night. Should be interesting
What’s the criteria? Would Foothill qualify with division 1 record?
What’s the criteria? Would Foothill qualify with division 1 record?
I think the criteria is still that they need to be at least .500 in 1 of 3 areas, in league, overall or vs. teams in their division. Foothill needs to win their last 3 to achieve the 1st 2, and its hard to tell on the final one, but they’ve played mostly D1 teams and would have 2 of their wins over D2 Livermore, so I doubt they’d be .500 vs. D1 teams without winning their last 3.
In addition to their close loss to DLS, Foothill also has played Dublin extremely well, losing by just 4 and 9, as well as close losses to CP by 4 and Logan by 3. So they definitely belong in the playoffs. If they can qualify, they’re the type of team that could pull a big upset, or lose another close one.
In addition to their close loss to DLS, Foothill also has played Dublin extremely well, losing by just 4 and 9, as well as close losses to CP by 4 and Logan by 3. So they definitely belong in the playoffs. If they can qualify, they’re the type of team that could pull a big upset, or lose another close one.
Just checked, yes you still have to qualify with at least .500 in league, overall, or vs. teams in your division:
16.304H Minimum Qualifying Record
To be accepted as a participant in the NCS/Les Schwab Tires Boys and Girls Basketball Championships, a team shall have compiled a .500 overall record, or a .500 record against teams in its own division or a .500 record in its own league. Exception: league champions gain automatic entry, provided the team submits and application by the deadline.
a. A .500 record is defined as a team having at least an equal number of wins and losses.
b. “Teams in its own division” is defined as any NCS team whose grades 9‐12 enrollment fall within the school’s NCS/CIF Basketball
Division. NCS/CIF Basketball Divisions are listed on the NCS website. Note: In basketball other CIF sections determine the division
each of their particular schools. To determine out of state schools refer to enrollment.
c. Games against teams outside of the United States will not be counted in determining the “winning record within a division”.
d. League record is defined as only league games played during the league season excluding league playoffs.
(Board of Managers 5/1/06
16.304H Minimum Qualifying Record
To be accepted as a participant in the NCS/Les Schwab Tires Boys and Girls Basketball Championships, a team shall have compiled a .500 overall record, or a .500 record against teams in its own division or a .500 record in its own league. Exception: league champions gain automatic entry, provided the team submits and application by the deadline.
a. A .500 record is defined as a team having at least an equal number of wins and losses.
b. “Teams in its own division” is defined as any NCS team whose grades 9‐12 enrollment fall within the school’s NCS/CIF Basketball
Division. NCS/CIF Basketball Divisions are listed on the NCS website. Note: In basketball other CIF sections determine the division
each of their particular schools. To determine out of state schools refer to enrollment.
c. Games against teams outside of the United States will not be counted in determining the “winning record within a division”.
d. League record is defined as only league games played during the league season excluding league playoffs.
(Board of Managers 5/1/06
It's cvc,Dublin and heritage to battle it out for the NCS title period the other teams will
just be hoping to win two games to qualify for norcal playoffs of the 3 mentioned teams
I think if Dublin were to win NCS they would get pulled into the open opening up another
NCS team to get pulled into norcal d1 based on it being back to back years in a sectional
final.
just be hoping to win two games to qualify for norcal playoffs of the 3 mentioned teams
I think if Dublin were to win NCS they would get pulled into the open opening up another
NCS team to get pulled into norcal d1 based on it being back to back years in a sectional
final.
@MoneyTeam0115 Berkeley of those 3 in my opinion would have the best chance as
they do have walker,Thomas and Ben baker all 3 are solid players.
they do have walker,Thomas and Ben baker all 3 are solid players.
If everyone wins out, here is how I have the top seeds
1. CVC
2. Dublin
3. Berkeley
4. Heritage
5. College Park
6. Logan
7. De La Salle
Most interesting thing is the EBAL is down compared to their standards. Will they show they are just beating up on each other or will other league push through for section final bids?
1. CVC
2. Dublin
3. Berkeley
4. Heritage
5. College Park
6. Logan
7. De La Salle
Most interesting thing is the EBAL is down compared to their standards. Will they show they are just beating up on each other or will other league push through for section final bids?
The EBAL is down, except for Dublin. If they’re on their game they could win NCS.
The problem is that everyone can’t win out. CP still has games vs CVC and Campo. If they lose both, they’ll drop, but if they knock off CVC, then maybe Dublin is the top seed?
Good call on that. If the DAL becomes a round robin of results, it opens up a path for Dublin to be the top seed in D1.
Post should of said if everyone wins the games they should win (so CVC wins out, Dublin wins out, Berkeley wins out except the O'Dowd game, etc)
Post should of said if everyone wins the games they should win (so CVC wins out, Dublin wins out, Berkeley wins out except the O'Dowd game, etc)
Dublin should win NCS. I actually think they can win it with a B effort. They're that much better than the others. The DLS game is a league game and will always be different that non-league games due to familiarity.
Am I missing something. I don't think CVC loses 1 seed if they lose to LL. LL beat Berkeley. Berkeley beat Dublin. I do think Dublin is the better team right now than CVC, but the committee is suppose to use head to head and common opponents to pick seeds. I think CVC gets 1 seed unless they lose to someone other than LL.
The committee tends to favor league champions first if cvc does not win there league they
more then likely will not be a 1 seed if Dublin runs the table and wins EBAL. I don't
think 1 or 2 seed will matter much for either team. If Berkeley can win that 2nd game
Against O'dowd that could vault them ahead of Dublin as they would be co league
Champs and have a head to head win over dublin.
more then likely will not be a 1 seed if Dublin runs the table and wins EBAL. I don't
think 1 or 2 seed will matter much for either team. If Berkeley can win that 2nd game
Against O'dowd that could vault them ahead of Dublin as they would be co league
Champs and have a head to head win over dublin.
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If today [too many ifs]:
1 Clayton Valley Charter (Concord)
2 Dublin
3 Heritage (Brentwood)
4 Berkeley
5 College Park (Pleasant Hill)
6 De La Salle (Concord)
7 Dougherty Valley (San Ramon)
8 James Logan (Union City)
9 Monte Vista (Danville)
10 Amador Valley (Pleasanton)
11 Freedom (Oakley)
12 Liberty (Brentwood)
13 Pittsburg
14 Granada (Livermore)
15 San Leandro
16 Foothill (Pleasanton)
1 Clayton Valley Charter (Concord)
2 Dublin
3 Heritage (Brentwood)
4 Berkeley
5 College Park (Pleasant Hill)
6 De La Salle (Concord)
7 Dougherty Valley (San Ramon)
8 James Logan (Union City)
9 Monte Vista (Danville)
10 Amador Valley (Pleasanton)
11 Freedom (Oakley)
12 Liberty (Brentwood)
13 Pittsburg
14 Granada (Livermore)
15 San Leandro
16 Foothill (Pleasanton)
I don’t see Logan getting seeded behind College Park, De La Salle, and Dougherty Valley. Logan has beaten 4 team on this play off prediction and has only lost to CVC and Heritage in division 1 NCS. Beat Monte Vista who beat DV. Beat Fairfield the day after Fairfield beat De La Salle. Also Pitt has beaten Liberty head to head so I’m sure they will get seeded higher than them. San Leandro has beaten freedom. College Park doesn’t have many quality division 1 NCS wins Who has College Park beaten on this list? I’m sure them getting blown out back to back games this late in the season will help them either. @Straight8
You’re right that CP hasn’t beaten many quality D1 teams. The only other D1 team in their league is CVC who many project as the #1 seed in D1. While they have a number of wins over middling D1 teams such as AV, Cal, Antioch & Foothill twice, their best wins so far are having beaten Campo twice (they play again tonight). Since Campo beat the top seed CVC in that amazing 2OT 100-98 thriller, the Campo wins are legit, even though they’re D3.
Winning consistently helps; most of these teams win a game then lose game to a lesser opponent. What place will Logan finish in the MVAL? They are an Elite 8 team but not a final 4 like last season. They loss to 1 and 3 of the list and won over 9, 13, 15 and 16. As for Berkeley they beat Dublin but Dublin might win their league while Berkeley finishes second in their league. A Top 4 Seed is a good position. As for position 9 through 16 they are all underdogs in the opening round looking at one and done unless they pull off an upset.
@Straight8 I just looked at Maxpreps if they beat Moreau last game of the season they will tie for league title. I just don’t think CP has beaten enough quality D1 teams. If Logan beats Moreau and wins league title i don’t see how they get below a 5 seed.
@MoneyTeam0115 you are right but the game vs Moreau is at Moreau. Logan's last year's State finalist team could not get a win in that gym. Plus Logan should not over look the game vs Washington High of Fremont they could see 2 more losses in MVAL. Being seeded #5 through #8 is not the issue being able to beat CVC, Berkeley, Dublin or Heritage in the second round is the problem. They need to win 2 games in NCS to make Nor-Cal eligibility.
The #5 seed can still get into NorCal even if they lose to the #4 seed in the 2nd round, if 1 or more D1 teams are selected to the Open. Best to just win and not hope for that scenario though.
If you really look closely I believe Dublin and CVC actually might not qualify for the open but I might be wrong. Nonetheless the Logan squad are not blowing out any quality teams and well coached teams in the playoffs are problematic for this roster of players. Playing teams like DLS, MV and DV is a difficult match up for these Logan players come NCS [lack playoff Varsity experience].
It's a little more complicated than current rankings. To be eligible for Open Division, a team has to have played in a regional final from the year before, has to be in the state top 10 overall rankings or has to have been in the NorCal playoffs for three of the last four seasons (including this one).
Dublin is eligible because they played in the NCS finals last year.
Dublin is eligible because they played in the NCS finals last year.
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