NCS Divsion 1 Seeing Predictions?
- Thread starter MoneyTeam0115
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I am sure. D1 & D2 are the strongest and toughest division in NCS. D2 has Bishop O'Dowd, Las Lomas, Moreau, Cardinal Newman, Alameda, De Anza, Northgate, Windsor, Montgomery and Newark.
Yes, Newark is D2 this year.
http://static.psbin.com/5/7/xex2zcl9kttw23/18BSK_Competitive_Divisions_WITHOUT_ENROLLMENT.pdf
http://static.psbin.com/5/7/xex2zcl9kttw23/18BSK_Competitive_Divisions_WITHOUT_ENROLLMENT.pdf
Ah, I guess their poor showing last year influenced moving them back. D2 is a much better level for them.
Every year and this year the MVAL is titled a weak league however Newark, Moreau, Logan and Washington are all rivals and their games are sometime competitive. The other 4 of 8 teams tend to create the weakness in the league. Historically Moreau and Newark will schedule tough competition in the preseason while Logan will schedule a lot of non-league games against NCS opponents.
Moreau's last 2 league games tonight and Friday are at home vs Newark tonight and Logan Friday. Moreau is 8-0 at home this season. Moreau has won 24 straight games at home verse MVAL opponents dating back to 2/15/14 when they loss to 2013-14 MVAL 14-0 League Champion Newark. Since then Moreau has won the league Champion in 2014-15 going 14-0 and 2015-16 going 13-1. Last year Moreau was Co-League Champs with Logan going 13-1 where both teams won their home. Also both teams advanced to the State Title games for D1 and D2.
It will take a very special effort to win in the very small confine Moreau gym. A true home court advantage for Moreau. BTW, The 2013-14 Newark team won the D2 NCS tournament that season. BUT, anything can happen.
Moreau's last 2 league games tonight and Friday are at home vs Newark tonight and Logan Friday. Moreau is 8-0 at home this season. Moreau has won 24 straight games at home verse MVAL opponents dating back to 2/15/14 when they loss to 2013-14 MVAL 14-0 League Champion Newark. Since then Moreau has won the league Champion in 2014-15 going 14-0 and 2015-16 going 13-1. Last year Moreau was Co-League Champs with Logan going 13-1 where both teams won their home. Also both teams advanced to the State Title games for D1 and D2.
It will take a very special effort to win in the very small confine Moreau gym. A true home court advantage for Moreau. BTW, The 2013-14 Newark team won the D2 NCS tournament that season. BUT, anything can happen.
Looking at Freedoms qualifications if they lose to liberty on Friday they are our right? Under .500 in all 3 categories
Not only did Acalanes just beat CP, but they took CVC to OT last time they played them. Not this time though.
Foothill has been eliminated from playoff contention. Freedom has to beat Liberty to get in, Arroyo still has a chance to qualify if they go 1-1 in their final 2 games. The rest looks pretty accurate.
@MoneyTeam0115 I don't really get to far into the selection process. No matter how the committee does it "the cream will rise to the top". Once a team is in they can win the entire thing. Rankings can't save the top teams good opponents don't care. The problem is with the bubble teams getting in plus just win the next game because the game after that one is even tougher. Lastly some times the #15 seed is tough on a #2 seed and in the second round a #6 seed is tough on a #3 second. If your team gets in "Just win".
D2 NCS is gonna be awesome this year. For sure some sleepers and some "tough outs" in the middle of the pack!
With Moreau beating Newark last night, they've clinched at least a share of the "perennially weak" MVAL pending Friday's game vs. Logan. A Logan win would make them co-champs again this year.
D2 is for sure going to be fascinating. It will include the champs of the WACC-Foothill, WACC-Shoreline, DFAL, MVAL, DVAL, Tri-County Stone and NBL just off the top of my head. I presume the top 4 seeds will be Las Lomas/BOD 1 and 2, and Moreau/Alameda 3 and 4, but other than a few first round mismatches, I don't think any of the teams that make the 2nd round are going to be an easy out.
You know when we talk about the "Perennially weak" MVAL we must think we are talking about 8 D1 teams when we are actually talking about only one D1 team, about four D2 teams, two mid-level D3 teams and a true D5 or D6 team. There are 5 High Schools in the city of Fremont with a league that is only create due to geographical location. Fremont's population on last count is 233,136 compared to the city of Oakland at 412,040 with 6 major High schools [Castlemont, Fremont, McClymonds, Oakland High, Oakland Tech and Skyline]. Basically this league is not matched by competition. If these teams were in the correct Division the MVAL would look like this:
Moreau Catholic - D1
James Logan - D1
Newark Memorial - D2
Washington - D2
Mission San Jose - D2
American - D3
Irvington - D3
Kennedy - D5
Moreau Catholic - D1
James Logan - D1
Newark Memorial - D2
Washington - D2
Mission San Jose - D2
American - D3
Irvington - D3
Kennedy - D5
Moreau is doing what they should be in a division where they are the only private school and can get kids from all over. Logan has perennially underachieved given the size of their student body they draw from, but last year all the stars aligned for their senior-heavy team to make a run. Newark has the best coach, but they have struggled to regain their stature since Moreau took over the league. The league's perceived weakness likely stems from the fact that there are 4 and sometimes 5 teams that are generally doormats.
Moreau is the only catholic school in NCS division 2 i highly doubt that. What about the San Leandro’s and Berkeley’s that have similar student body? Every league has a few teams that are doormats. You guys idolize what used to be the EBAL. California, Livermore, San Ramon Valley this year, Granda in the past have been doormats. What about the West Alameda County League? My Eden, Piedmont, Tennyson, Hayward, Arroyo?
And Coach Knight does a great job. The point is given the talent they pull in, its no surprise they dominate the MVAL. They pull in a lot of non-Hayward guys too with all their athletic scholarships.
Hoopman I would agree they have had players from the Soldiers, Rebels and Arsenal on their teams over the past 8 years Coach Knight has been there.
I would have to say this year is different. No Kyree, no Frayer, no Milstead. Not one Soldier player at all. I thought they were dead in the water this season as many of us did losing your schools all time leading scorer and a top 5 in class guy nationally to transfer.
They still played a national schedule are sitting at 19-5 and have won at least a share of another MVAL title. Im starting to think as long as this staff stays in place at Moreau they will be good.
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Believe me, you're preaching to the choir:
https://norcalpreps.forums.rivals.com/threads/norcal-roundup-finals-are-set.16081/#post-160796
But just wait until after Sunday when the seedings are announced. You'll see people running down the MVAL, and the amount of anti-Knight vitriol will reach an annual high.
I'm pretty sure he meant the only Catholic school in the MVAL, especially since both O'Dowd and Cardinal Newman are both NCS Division 2
But remember, "Knight's a terrible coach who only wins because he has the best players on the court." Here's just one thread with an example of this sort of thing:
https://norcalpreps.forums.rivals.com/threads/moreau-vs-o-dowd.15906/#post-158637
Also I would add about Moreau they are lead by mostly Juniors and a Sophomore. They are not bad with multiple 3 point shooters. What some of you guys are missing is the fact these players were on the State Final team last year with the 2 College D1 Super Stars. They played a Major role last season when they were very young. More team play now with the lack of a Big Name.
Going on Maxpreps and looking at both Newark and Logan too are both pretty young. Logan’s two best players are a Jr and a sophomore based off stats
I totally agree with that statement. No one saw it coming and it was pretty hard to screw that talent up. Dating back recent years as far back to 2014, if a Monte Vista or DLS Coaching Program and System was at Logan with the discipline from the Staff, the overall results would change for the better.
True but this group has the same issues as the 2014, 2015 and 2016 teams; lots of talent but overall too much "Me" and not enough "Eye On The Prize"---> THE TITLES
That is why last year's 2017 team won Co-MVAL Champ, NCS Semi-Finalist, Nor-Cal D1 Champions and State Finalist. They were undefeated at home; this year's team loss 5 of their 6 losses at home. You would think these players learn something from last season when they were around.
Logan lost a lot of experience and leadership from last year's team so its no surprise some of the young guys will need to grow in those areas.
Walker leaving Moreau was probably the best thing for Coach Knight's reputation. Seeing him win big this year with an unheralded group of guys shows it's not just about having the superstar talent.
Walker leaving Moreau was probably the best thing for Coach Knight's reputation. Seeing him win big this year with an unheralded group of guys shows it's not just about having the superstar talent.
Yes, My understanding is to be at least .500 in at least one of these categories, Overall, In League, In Division
This is pretty disrespectful and really incorrect so allow me to explain. Logan had underachieved for YEARS cause Fortenberry is not a good coach, look at Castro Valley these last two seasons under him. They were 16-12 last year and they are 10-15 this year, that team has enough talent to not be as bad as they are but they'll continue to underachieve until Fort is gone.
Melvin* Easley changed the entire culture at Logan. The basketball team before him with Fortenberry was consistently in the 10-16 wins range, and only had ONE season since he started coaching in the league where they hadn't lost 10 teams. The team with Easley has gone: 19-8, 28-6 and 19-6.
So no they wouldn't be much better if the coaching staff was different since 2014, and no this years team isn't like the old squads. This years team is young, their best player is a junior and their second best player is a sophomore. A grand total of 2 guys from this entire roster has had meaningful varsity minutes before this season, and yet they're still sitting at a 19-6 record.
Next year not only will their their three best players be even better, they have a 6'7 transfer big ready to go in a eerily similar situation to what happened with Edra Luster. This year, realistically I can't see Logan getting past the second round at best. Next year, Logan will be one of the better teams from the area.
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@LoganHomer i believe his name is Melvin Easley. But I’ve been to Logan games and it seems like their assistant Busch who graduated from San Leandro in 2005 is doing most of the coaching. Running timeouts, calling sets, etc... but I’m sure Mel has a contribution to the culture change definitely. All 3 of his assistants are the Busch’s who i watched at San Leandro. Very good basketball family and good dudes.
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The father Busch has been coaching for a long. Long time assistant for San Leandro and James Logan. He brings lots of experience having coached high D1 and a NBA kid
@LoganHomer I respect your take but notice Easley's record in seasons of 19-8, 19-6 and this year's 19-6 that's a far cry from a 28 win season to the State Finals with multiple seasons of one and done in the NCS tourney. There was equal talent in those 19 win seasons as the 28 win season. In 2014 they had 6' 8" Senior Marquis Godfrey, in 2015 and 2016 they had 6' 9" MIchael Steadman with a host of shooters, no commitment to defense and some poor shot selection. An Easley Lead team loss in the opening round of NCS to Monte Vista in 2016 in a game they had won. That Monte Vista team made it to the D1 Nor-Cal Semifinals. Lastly it's not hard to get to 19 wins when you get 12 wins a season from lower MVAL opponents.
Well Easley started coaching the year after, so he never had a chance to coach Kaye, Schraeper,Marquise, Leno etc whom somehow had a record of 13-14 in their senior seasons. Then somehow after losing their 4-5 best players in one season, they end up getting much better the following season?
To say that they had equal talent in 2016 and 2017 is not fair at all. You couldn't turn Steadman into the defender that Luster was even if you tried and senior year Noah, Parilla and McGlory all would have easily been the second best players just the year before.
It not being hard to get 19 wins in the MVALs doesn't change the fact that Fortenberry's team won more then 16 games just three times in an entire previous decade and that Easley's team have only won less then 19 games once in the 4 years he's been a coach.
I'm just failing to see how Logan is underachieving, last year half this forum was claiming that Logan would go back to the pack because they lost their entire starting lineup. Now they have a 19-6 record and they won the DLS tourney. Talk about how weak the MVL is but 3 of their 6 losses come from teams with a combined record of 73-5 and two of them are ranked top 5 teams in the entire state. Their best player is a junior, second best player is a sophomore and have only 2 seniors getting consistent minutes. In what world are they underachieving?
Based on what? DLS teams are talented. How many of Logan players have signed with division 1 or division 2 programs in that time period?
Maybe I have a different definition of "talent" but in my opinion talent is multiple division 1 players on your roster. I am not old enough to say I have never seen a talented Logan team.
Seriously, when was the last time Logan was the most talented team in the MVAL?
Seriously, when was the last time Logan was the most talented team in the MVAL?
Every winning program is benefiting from some sort of "pipeline".
I just like to point out that Ryan Parilla and Micheal Steadman both ended up playing D1 at SJSU. Parilla is a walk on and Steady is going their next season as a transfer.Jordan McGlory plays for Cal State East Bay which is also a D1 program.
Luster and Noah both have shots of transferring to D1 programs.
But I'd agree for the most part, they only got offers to local D1s and proximity for sure plays a role. Logan isn't a basketball powerhouse, but the fact is that before this recent crop we hadn't had a D1 basketball player since maybe idk Nate Robinson played his sophomore year here like 20 years ago which really doesn't count.
I'm not trying to argue that Logan will turn into some great program but even having 3 guys turn out as D1 within a 2 year span when you haven't had one in decades right after a coaching staff change is a positive sign.
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