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NCS Divsion 1 Seeing Predictions?

@da real D1 College talent players get beat in High School all the time ask Last year’s BOD team. Basketball is a team sport and too many High School programs are more focus on Showcasing D1 talent like it’s a AAU thing. BTW @LoganHomer East Bay is D2. Good discussion Ladies and Gentlemen. Someone said earlier the underachievement is due to the size of their student body estimated at nearly 4300 students a year from one high school in a city with a population of 75,000. The program has improved and it is improving but to think they are at their peak is the underachievement. Under classmen are often the top players in our present era. Dublin’s Star is a Sophmore. Last year’s top Nor-Cal player was a Junior. The kids play AAU since 6 or 7 years old so basketball development can start early. Hey I can’t wait for the post season looking forward.
 
@Straight8 you really took this original post of NCS division 1 seedings to another topic. Let’s stick to the original post. Are you mad that College Park that you had as 5 seed lost and will most likely drop to a 7 seed? Good luck to all teams. Can’t wait to watch some good basketball
 
@MoneyTeam0115 personally rankings and seeding doesn't mean much to me. College Park could win NCS D1, at least they will get a shot. A few years back Berkeley High made it to the State Finals from a low seed.as for seeding predictions this thread was done after 10 post. BTW I like programs more then seeding. I have my eyes on DLS, Monte Vista and Dougherty Valley.
 
To be clear, I was talking about Logan teams of the past being underachievers. The new coaching regime has done a great job in elevating the program. Last year's team was super talented and had great leadership, and admittedly I thought they would take a step back this year. If Kyree Walker had not left Moreau, they would have been head and shoulders above every MVAL team and everyone else would have been playing for 2nd I still think despite the relatively flashy records that the top MVAL teams arent that strong this year. Both times Logan struggled against a fairly weak Newark squad that had been blasted by 40 points in mid January by Sheldon. Same with Moreau. I don't expect any of these teams to do anything special in NCS. I could be wrong though, and if they do well, I'll be happy to see the local teams succeeding.
 
Also, no school in the MVAL has the same type of pipeline as the sole private school in the league that can pull talent in from anywhere in the area. Logan too should have talent advantages given their student body population is roughly twice that of any other school in the league.
 
Next year not only will their their three best players be even better, they have a 6'7 transfer big ready to go in a eerily similar situation to what happened with Edra Luster. This year, realistically I can't see Logan getting past the second round at best. Next year, Logan will be one of the better teams from the area.[/QUOTE]

Let's be clear....the 6'7" transfer from Washington is NO Edra Luster. Not even close. Luster played big, ran the floor, protected the rim, and played long and athletic. The kid who will have more of an impact next year if he plays is a 6'10" soph that's been sidelined all year with a concussion.
 
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hoopman2015 said:
no school in the MVAL has the same type of pipeline as the sole private school in the league that can pull talent in from anywhere in the area.
Click to expand...

When Newark was dominating the mval, their pipeline included a lot players who didn't live in Newark . They pulled in talent from everywhere too. They no longer have the same pipeline.
 
With LL clinching the DAL-Foothill league championship tonight, a win by Dublin in the EBAL championship game Saturday night may earn the Gaels the top seed in NCS D1 when the brackets come out on Sunday. AV’s knocking off DLS in the EBAL playoffs tonight after just losing a heartbreaking 3 OT classic to them just last week should bump them upward. If they can take down Dublin, they’ll claim the EBAL championship.
 
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The top 10 for NCS D1 may look something like this, spending on how much weight they’ll give the EBAL playoffs:

1) Dublin
2) CVC
3) Heritage
4) Berkeley
5) Logan
6) AV
7) DLS
8) CP
9) MV
10) DV

Others: Pitt, Liberty, Granada, (Antioch & Freedom if they qualify?).
 
If you move teams around after one day plan on moving teams again after Friday then Saturday’s final games. I’m not sure EBAL Playoffs Of 4 Teams should have dramatic effects on the Seeding of entire NCS.
 
That amador valley win over dela will almost certainly knock college park or Logan into
that 8 9 game that nobody wants to play in because then to you are headed to face
1 seed in the second round even with dela losing they won't drop below 7.
 
NCS is a tournament within a tournament, the first 2 rounds before Final 4. 4 mini tourneys with: [a] 1,8,9,16; 2,7,10,15; [c] 3,6,11,14; [d] 4,5,12,13.

round 1 has;
1 v 16
2 v 15
3 v 14
4 v 13
--------
5 v 12
6 v 11
7 v 10
8 v 9

If round one goes with the favors round 2 looks like this:
1 v 8
2 v 7
3 v 6
4 v 5
 
Straight8 said:
NCS is a tournament within a tournament, the first 2 rounds before Final 4. 4 mini tourneys with: [a] 1,8,9,16; 2,7,10,15; [c] 3,6,11,14; [d] 4,5,12,13.

round 1 has;
1 v 16
2 v 15
3 v 14
4 v 13
--------
5 v 12
6 v 11
7 v 10
8 v 9

If round one goes with the favors round 2 looks like this:
1 v 8
2 v 7
3 v 6
4 v 5
Click to expand...

Correct, except there’s a good chance there won’t be 16 qualifiers. The top couple of teams will likely have 1st round byes.
 
Straight8 said:
If you move teams around after one day plan on moving teams again after Friday then Saturday’s final games. I’m not sure EBAL Playoffs Of 4 Teams should have dramatic effects on the Seeding of entire NCS.
Click to expand...

I’m not suggesting the committee will factor in the EBAL playoffs more than other leagues, just wondering whether AV’s playoff win over DLS will outweigh their league loss (3OT) last week and get them seeded ahead of DLS.
 
I don’t think Amador Valleys win won’t shake up to much. I think if Logan wins tonight they get the 5 seed guaranteed followed by De La Salle, CP, MV, DV. Good win by Amador Valley but they have head to head losses from MV and DV so i don’t see them passing neither team up unless they beat Dublin which will be a tall order.
 
I’ll be honest i don’t know how the committee will look at Berkeley. They have a win against Dublin that didn’t have starting center or head coach. But after that what other quality wins do they have? Especially in Division 1? Jesuit without Elias King was a solid win. But there next good division 1 win was against San Leandro. Not sure they have the 4 spot on lock especially if they lose again to O’Dowd tonight. What do you think @Streak One @Straight8 @kiddman32 @bones40
 
How you are playing at the end of the season definitely factors into things
so the amador win at dela will help them move up for sure.With mv and dv losing to dela
2nd time thru league there win also validates CP who beat amador.I believe Berkeley
is solid at 4 with a chance to get to 3 with a win tonight at home could slip
them past CVC as they would be a co league champ. As for Logan if they win
tonight could be 5 if they lose could find themselves anywhere between 6-8
 
But they have head to head wins which I’m sure will favor MV and DV. Also didn’t CP beat Amador early in the season? So what you just said about end of the season must not be that big of a factor. Don’t forget if CP loses tonight then they have lost 4 of their last 7
 
Other then mv what good wins does Logan have? which is also why Berkeley should
be safe at 4 no starting center or coach in the Dublin win it's still a win over a top 2 at least seeded
team as I have said before 5-16 is irrelevant in my opinion in terms of what teams
can win NCS it will be between those 4 at the top.
 
My question is how does the committee value January and February wins vs December wins? This goes for all divisions. Does a close win against a team in December automatically put you ahead of that team in seeding if the losing team had a solid January and February? There are a lot of tough decisions to make in all of the divisions.
 
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Foothill, Pitt, Tracy, San Leandro, a very good Regis team from Colorado that’s currently ranked number 8th in their respective state(that is beat St Pats, and Serra). A very well coached Newark. I’m going to say i believe De La Salle CP or Logan could very well upset one of the top 4.
 
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First in NCS D1, too many times these teams have won a game and loss a game against the same opponent. Also teams have beaten an opponent that that opponent beat an opponent the first team loss to. So.....I look at the strongest win, the overall record with the strength in schedule along with the finish place in league play.

It doesn't matter to me if a player was missing; [Did the Win go for the team missing the player?]

Well we have:
----------------
Dublin -> Heritage 23, DLS 73, Monte Vista 110 EBAL League Champ**
CVC -> Los Lomas 7, Berkeley 55, Logan 105
Heritage-> Logan 105, Windsor 150; BVAL League Champ**
Berkeley -> Dublin 21, Jesuit 92, Stuart Hall 153
DLS-> Alameda 84, SPSV 89, Monte Vista 116
Logan ->Regis Jesuit [= to a Berkeley 55], Monte Vista 116, Tracy 146
College Park -> 3 x Campolindo 77
Monte Vista-> AV 118, 2 x DV 126
Amador Valley -> DLS 73, Menlo-Atherton 142, Windsor 150
Dougherty Valley -> DLS 73, 112 Amador Valley 118, Tracey 146
 
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MoneyTeam0115 said:
I’ll be honest i don’t know how the committee will look at Berkeley. They have a win against Dublin that didn’t have starting center or head coach. But after that what other quality wins do they have? Especially in Division 1? Jesuit without Elias King was a solid win. But there next good division 1 win was against San Leandro. Not sure they have the 4 spot on lock especially if they lose again to O’Dowd tonight. What do you think @Streak One @Straight8 @kiddman32 @bones40
Click to expand...
I'm really curious what "Signature Wins" do teams projected 5 thru10 have that Berkeley doesn't have or what Signature win does Heritage have for that matter?
 
@meezymo de La Salle and Logan have more division 1 and quality wins. But that’s just my opinion. I think Berkeley is a very good team with great guard play. I think their sophomore guard is their X factor. If he’s on than they have a chance of winning NCS. But i just don’t see signature wins besides Dublin and Jesuit
 
Tonight's Games:
--------------------
CVC vs College Park
BOD vs Berkeley
James Logan vs Moreau

**I personal don't see Logan winning tonight however the "Big" if they could it would help their chances otherwise...

**Berkeley and CVC are solid second place finishers to Top Ranked Los Lomas and BOD. CVC has a win against Los Lomas this season.

**College Park is the same as Logan.
 
@MoneyTeam0115 listing Stuart Hall helps your case, lol. Not to many signature wins but those "W"s over Dublin and Jesuit carry's a lot of weight. Logan should had beaten Heritage early in the season at home. Logan should had beaten Sacred Heart early in the season at home. Logan should had beaten Newark at home in Union City. 3 less losses on the record. Last year's Logan team got the 4th seed in D1 NCS with 4 losses and Co-League MVAL Champs

Berkeley -> Dublin 21, Jesuit 92, Stuart Hall 153 ===266***
Logan ->Regis Jesuit [= to a Berkeley 55], Monte Vista 116, Tracy 146=317***

***The Lower number gets the better seed
 
Straight8 said:
Dublin -> Heritage 23, DLS 73, Monte Vista 110 EBAL League Champ**
CVC -> Los Lomas 7, Berkeley 55, Logan 105
Heritage-> Logan 105, Windsor 150; BVAL League Champ**
Click to expand...

Correction:
CVC -> Los Lomas 7, Berkeley 55, College Park 56
 
So you’re telling me committee only takes 3 best wins and calculates their California rankling and whoever has the lowest number wins. I doubt that. Maxpreps also isn’t the only resource they use. I think some of Maxpreps ranking are horrible. But I’m done commenting on this post. I wish all teams best of luck. I will try to get out to a few games this weekend. BOD at Berkeley and Dublin vs AV
 
Hey @MoneyTeam0115 I would consider more then the above however the strength in schedule helps. If a team is playing only soft competition it's hard to give them credit. Also every time a team plays upper completion and they lose it's a wasted opportunity. AGAIN, we are just guessing but someone's list will come the closest to the final seeding. BTW, I know nothing about NCS committees, CIF committees, etc.
 
I think I see a score Logan over Moreau 65-61 and BOD over Berkeley 84-56. Congratulations to Logan back-to-back Co-Champion MVAL.
 
da real said:
When Newark was dominating the mval, their pipeline included a lot players who didn't live in Newark . They pulled in talent from everywhere too. They no longer have the same pipeline.
Click to expand...
Lol... ^^^^ this guy... all over the place like where??
 
@observer22 i agree with you. If Logan does move up to 4 then Berkeley for sure doesn’t go lower than 5. I think the committee favors league champs and teams who are playing well late in the season. A 30 point loss this late in the season will most likely hurt Berkeley. One thing to lose. But to get blown out like that will hurt them
 
bones40 said:
Other then mv what good wins does Logan have? which is also why Berkeley should
be safe at 4 no starting center or coach in the Dublin win it's still a win over a top 2 at least seeded
team as I have said before 5-16 is irrelevant in my opinion in terms of what teams
can win NCS it will be between those 4 at the top.
Click to expand...

Bones40
I get your point about a win is a win but can't quite get there. I think there is some weight to the fact it was a preseason game, with mitagating factors. I would imagine some one on the committe will balance this thought out. Who knows ? We will see.

Here's wishing you great hoops
 
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