Final CCS play-off projections Sunday Morning

[PAL Booster]

With two weeks to go and the end of the regular season in sight; 20 of the 40 play-off spots have clinched and another 14 are highly likely barring an improbable upset. Six spots are still up in the air. Of course, all outcomes will impact play-off seedings.

Week eight saw numerous upsets, some much bigger than others, but it is the time of year where some teams have their backs against the wall and others with small rosters may be struggling with injuries and lack of depth. Palo Alto and Stevenson were projected intot he field this week replacing Aragon and Greenfield.

Division I

The three impactful results this week were Palma’s 24-21 win over Aptos which projects Palma into D I and Aptos into D 2. Los Gatos decisive win over over Wilcox 28-7 which moved them from the 7th seed to the 3rd seed and dropped Wilcox from D 1 (Sacred Heart Cathedral moved up form D 2 with their 23-10 win over Bellarmine) and St. Ignatius 24-21 win over Mitty which dropped Mitty from a projected 2nd seed to the 5th seed.

8. Palma 8-2 68.5 (#2 in D2) vs 1. Serra 10-0 88 (1)
5. Mitty 7-3 71.33 (2) vs 4. Sacred Heart Prep 9-1 73 (4)
6. Salinas 9-1 70 (6) vs 3. Los Gatos 8-2 76 (7)
7. Sacred Heart Cathedral 6-4 68.83 (1 in D 2) vs 2. St Francis 7-3 79.5 (3)

Dropped out Wilcox 10-0 70 (5 in D 1); Aptos 9-1 68.5 (8 in D 1)

Division 2

Most impactful results on D 2 were Burlingame’s 29-27 upset over Half Moon Bay and Live Oak’s decisive 42-14 win over Lincoln.

8. Burlingame 6-4 52.5 (#7 in D3) vs 1. Wilcox 9-1 64 (#5 in D1)
5. St. Ignatius 4-6 58.5 (7) vs 4. Bellarmine 4-6 59 (5)
6 Half Moon Bay 8-2 57 (2) vs 3. Menlo Atherton 5-5 61.5 (3)
7. Live Oak 9-1 57 (#5 in D3) vs 2. Aptos 8-2 63.5 (#8 in D1)

Dropped out: Christopher 9-1 51.5 (8) Lincoln 10-0 57 (4)

Division 3

This division was most impacted by the upsets in the Deanza where Palo Alto beat Mountain View 48-35 and Milpitas upset Homestead 14-7. Both losers should make the play-offs but in D4.

8. Sequoia 9-1 41 (#6 in D4) vs 1. Lincoln 9-1 51.5 (#4 in D2)
5. St. Francis (W) 10-0 44.5 (#3 in D 4) vs 4. Christopher 8-2 47.5 (#8 in D2)
6. Kings Academy 8-2 44 (8) vs 3. Hollister 5-5 48 (2)
7. Menlo 4-6 41.5 (3) vs 2. Soquel 9-1 48.33 (1)

Dropped out: Homestead 5-5 43 (6) Mountain View 4-6 46 (4)

Division 4

Biggest results here were Overfelt’s 27-21 win over Westmont and San Mateo's 27-14 win over Terra Nova.

8. Westmont 9-1 32 (1) vs 1. Homestead 4-6 39.5 (#6 in D3)
5. Terra Nova 7-3 34.5 (4) vs 4. San Mateo 7-3 35 (#4 in D 5)
6. Soledad 8-2 34 (7) vs 3. Santa Teresa 5-5 36.5 (8)
7. Overfelt 9-1 33.5 (#3 in D5) vs 2. Mountain View 3-7 37.5 (4)

Dropped out Aragon 4-6 40.5 (#2) Branham 9-1 36 (5)

Division 5

8. Willow Glen 8-2 19.5 (8) vs 1. Branham 9-1 32 (#5 in D4)
5. Palo Alto 4-6 26.5 (not in field) vs 4. Pioneer 8-2 27.5 (1)
6. Woodside 7-3 22 (7) vs 3. Monterey 7-3 28 (2)
7. Stevenson 6-2 (not in field) 19.94 vs 2. Seaside 6-4 29.83 (5)

Dropped out: Greenfield 7-3 20.5 (6)

A leagues 4 automatic spots

WCAL – Only big news was St. Ignatius pulling off a 24-21 upset over Mitty. Even with this win St. Ignatius may need to beat Riordan in week 10 to make the play-offs. Serra continues to dominate the league having won all five of its games by 21 points or more.

Qualified – Serra, St. Francis, Mitty, Sacred Heart Cathedral
Likely – Bellarmine, St. Ignatius

DeAnza – Los Gatos easily beat Wilcox 28-21 and with either a win over Mountain View or a Wilcox loss to Homestead wins the league outright next week. Facing elimination both Palo Alto (48-35 over Mountain View) and Milpitas (14-7 over Homestead) pulled off big upsets to keep their play-off aspirations alive. Unless Mountain View beats Los Gatos, the winner of this weeks game where Milpitas travels to Palo Alto will gain the league’s fourth automatic berth. Palo Alto should be a slight favorite. Mountain View is likely to make the field as an at-large team.

Qualified - Los Gatos, Wilcox
Likely – Homestead, Mountain View and winner of Palo Alto -Milpitas game

PAL-Bay- Burlingame pulled off an upset defeating Half Moon Bay 29-27. This week Menlo Atherton heads cross town to play Sacred Heart Prep. SHP can clinch the league crown with a win. A Menlo-Atherton win likely results in co-champions. Half Moon Bay, Burlingame and Menlo should make the field regardless of their results over the last two weeks. Two of these teams will get the last two automatic spots and the third should get an at-large berth, although Menlo’s position would be tenuous. With the current projections, Aragon just misses the play-offs if they split their last two games (lose to Half Moon Bay, Beat Hillsdale) and need an upset win this week to improve their position in the section at-large selection.

Qualified - Sacred Heart Prep, Menlo-Atherton, Half Moon Bay
Likely - Burlingame
On Bubble – Menlo, Aragon

Gabilan – Palma beat Aptos 24-21 to remain the league’s sole unbeaten team. This sets up a week 10 showdown between Palma and Salinas where Salinas should be a slight favorite. A Salinas win likely creates a three-way tie between Aptos (assuming they beat Hollister in week 10), Palma and Salinas. A Palma win gives them an outright league championship. The top four spots in this league have been decided with Aptos, Hollister, Palma and Salinas all qualified for the play-offs. None of the other team will be close to an at-large berth unless Alisal upsets Aptos this week.

Qualified Palma, Salinas, Aptos, Hollister

Mt. Hamilton – This has been a highly competitive league with the teams fairly evenly matched. Santa Teresa has had all three of their league games go to overtime. Live Oak had a decisive win over Lincoln 42-14 and is the league’s last unbeaten team and the only team to clinch a play-off berth. Lincoln (hosting Santa Teresa) and Christopher (hosting Oak Grove) can both clinch a play-off spot with a win this week. The final spot is likely to come down to the week 10 game between Oak Grove and Santa Teresa. It is unlikely that the fifth-place team from this league will get an at-large spot in the play-offs.

Qualified - Live Oak
Likely – Lincoln, Christopher
On Bubble – Santa Teresa, Oak Grove

B Leagues – Two Automatic Spots except for Mission 3 and Cypress 1

El Camino – Kings Academy and Sequoia both clinched play-off spots and play this week for the league championship with the loser guaranteed second place. None of the other teams are in contention for an at-large berth.

Qualified – Kings Academy, Sequoia

Ocean – San Mateo beat Terra Nova 26-14 last week to gain sole possession of first place. By virtue of Hillsdale’s 27-6 win over Capuchino, Terra Nova also clinched a play-off spot. San Mateo can win the league outright with a win over Capuchino this week. Terra Nova faces Jefferson and even if they lose will hold all second-place tie breakers over Hillsdale and/or Capuchino. No one from this league is likely to get an at-large berth.

Qualified – San Mateo, Terra Nova

Mission – Soquel has qualified for the play-offs and can wrap up an outright title with a win this week in their final regular season game against Monta Vista Christian. The other two spots come down to Monterey, Seaside, and Scotts Valley. Seaside travel to Scotts Valley this week and Scotts Valley will be eliminated from consideration with a loss. Seaside travels to Monterey in week 10. There is unlikely to be an at-large team from this league.

Qualified – Soquel
On Bubble – Monterey, Seaside, Scotts Valley (two will qualify)

Cypress – The week 10 game with Soledad hosting St. Francis will determine the league’s sole qualifier. If both teams win their games this week, the loser will be positioned to get a final at-large spot.

Likely – St. Francis, Soledad

Foothill – Branham (at Piedmont Hills) and Pioneer (hosting Gilroy) both can clinch a play-off spot this week ahead of their week 10 contest. No team from this league will get an at-large berth.

Likely - Branham, Pioneer

Valley –. Overfelt beat Westmont 27-21 in a game that likely determined the league title. Barring a big upset in the final two weeks Overfelt and Westmont should be the league’s two play-off representatives. There is a scenario where a Sobrato (assuming Sobrato can get past Leigh this week) upset of Overfelt in week 10 could alter this projection.

Likely -Overfelt, Westmont

C Leagues – One spot

PAL Lake – Woodside has clinched this spot regardless of the remaining outcomes over the next two weeks.

Qualified – Woodside

Santa Lucia – Stevenson is in control of the league after defeating Greenfield 21-13 and clinch the league’s play-off berth with a won at Gonzales this week. A Gonzales win would likely create a three-way tie for first with Greenfield going into week 10 and Gonzales would be able to win the spot with wins over Stevenson and Greenfield in the final two weeks.

On Bubble – Stevenson, Gonzales, Greenfield (One will qualify)
West Valley – Mt. Pleasant defeated Del Mar 21-7 and can clinch the league’s play-off spot with a win at Willow Glen this week where they will be a slight underdog. A Willow Glen win this week likely continues the race to week 10 where Willow Glen will travel to one loss Del Mar.

On Bubble Willow Glen, Del Mar, Mt. Pleasant (one will qualify)

 

[Cal 14]

Salinas QB Adam Shaffer reportedly was injured in this weekend's game (non-throwing shoulder). Don't know the extent. They can beat Alvarez without him, but not likely Palma.

 

[PAL Booster]

Sorry to hear that. Hate to learn about any injuries, but it is an inevitable part of the game. Most teams will lose 4-6 starters at some point during the year for a few games or a season. More impactful for teams that have to rely on their best players to go both ways. The projections don't take into account injuries which can have a big impact.

 

[PAL Booster]

Going into the final week 32 teams have clinched play-off spots. Eight spots are still in play. There are four automatic berths from leagues that are still in doubt and there are still four of the five at-large berths that are still in play

Automatic spots that are undecided

1. 4th place in the Mount Hamilton. Oak Grove at Santa Teresa in week 10. The winner gets 4th AQ spot from Mt. Hamilton –loser won’t be at-large.
2. The winner of the Cypress League will be determined in week 10 when St. Francis plays at Soledad. Winner is Cypress League Champion and gets AQ. Loser is on bubble for final at-large berth.
3. The third automatic spot in the Mission League. Monterey is in if they win their week 10 game against Seaside. If Monterey losses see Mission Bay League for tiebreakers.
4. The West Valley League championship is still up in the air. Willow Glen at Del Mar – Willow Glen needs a win to win the outright crown and the sole play-off spot. See West Valley league for tiebreakers.

Four of the at-large berths still are undetermined.

1. The winner of Riordan at St. Ignatius gets at-large bid and finishes 6th in WCAL – loser 7th in WCAL and will not get into the play-offs
2. San Mateo at Burlingame. Burlingame will definitely be 3rd at large with a win a lose puts them on the bubble and in danger of falling out of the top 5.
3. Los Altos at Mountain View. Mountain View currently 4th in at-large standings and need to win to maintain position.
4. Hillsdale at Aragon – Aragon is currently last team in as 5th at-large and must win to have a chance to keep this position. If Soledad losses to St. Francis and Aragon wins they have an excellent chance to hold their position. If Soledad wins and St. Francis drops into the at-large pool St. Francis would have 1.5 points more than Soledad and would likely leapfrog Aragon for the final at-large spot..
5. Soledad is unlikely to surpass Burlingame, Aragon or Mountain View if all three win. St. Francis would probably surpass Aragon even if Aragon wins and St, Francis loses.


Division I
Week 10 has several impactful games as six of the teams currently projected into D1 play each other. Mitty plays at St. Francis; Palma is at Salinas; and Serra plays SHC. Palma at Salinas loser might drop from D1 and be replaced by Wilcox.

8. Palma 8-2 66 (8) vs 1. Serra 10-0 88 (1)
5. Mitty 7-3 70.33 (5) vs 4. Los Gatos 8-2 75 (3)
6. Sacred Heart Cathedral 6-4 69.83 (7) vs 3. Sacred Heart Prep 9-1 75 (4)
7. Salinas 9-1 67.5 (6) vs 2. St Francis 7-3 79.5 (2)

Division 2
8. Lincoln 9-1 51.5 vs 1. Wilcox 9-1 65 (1)
5. Aptos 8-2 59 (2) vs 4. Bellarmine 4-6 59 (4)
6 Half Moon Bay 8-2 56 (2) vs 3. Menlo Atherton 5-5 61.5 (3)
7. Live Oak 9-1 54 (7) vs 2 St. Ignatius 4-6 61.5 (5)
Dropped out: Burlingame

Division 3
8. Aragon 4-6 38.5 (not in field) vs 1. Christopher 8-2 50.5 (4)
5. Kings Academy 8-2 44 (6) vs 4. . Burlingame 5-5 46.5 (#8 in D2)
6. Hollister 5-5 43.5 (3) vs 3. Soquel 9-1 48.83 (2)
7. St. Francis (W) 10-0 43.5 (5) vs 2. Menlo 5-5 49.5 (7)
Dropped out: Sequoia

Division 4
8. Branham 9-1 32 (#1 in D5) vs 1. Mountain View 3-7 38.5 (2)
5. Santa Teresa 5-5 35 (3) vs 4. Sequoia 9-1 36.5 (#8 in D3)
6. Overfelt 9-1 32.5 (7) vs 3. Homestead 4-6 37.5 (1)
7. Seaside 7-3 32.33 (#2 in D5) vs 2. San Mateo 7-3 38 (#4)
Dropped out: Terra Nova 7-3 30.5 (5 in D4), Soledad

Division 5
8. Willow Glen 8-2 19.5 (8) vs 1. Westmont 9-1 31 (1)
5. Scotts Valley 7-3 24.5 (not in field) vs 4. Pioneer 8-2 28.5 (4)
6. Woodside 7-3 22 (6) vs 3. Palo Alto 4-6 30.5 (5)
7. Stevenson 6-2 (7) 19.94 vs 2. Terra Nova 7-3 30.5 (#5 in D4)
Dropped out: Monterey
A leagues 4 automatic spots

WCAL – All results as expected in Week 9. The four AQ spots have ben clinched by Serra, St. Francis, Mitty and Sacred Heart Cathedral. Bellarmine has clinched an at-large berth as even with a loss to Valley Christian this week they will finish no lower than 6th place. The winner of Riordan vs St. Ignatius will also get an at-large berth with the loser out as the number 7 team in the WCAL (CCS rules limit leagues to sending 6 teams to play-offs). SI should be a 10-14 point favorite. Serra wraps up the league championship with a win over SHC. Serra has given up 7 points in each of their 6 league contests to date.

Play-off spots
Qualified – Serra, St. Francis, Mitty, Sacred Heart Cathedral, Bellarmine
Likely – St. Ignatius (must beat Riordan)
Possible – Riordan (Must beat SI)

DeAnza – All teams have finished league play with Los Gatos winning the league championship and Wilcox, Homestead and Palo Alto getting the other three AQ spots. Mountain View will likely get an at-large berth with a week 10 win over Los Altos where they will be a 17-20 point favorite. Los Gaots plays Menlo-Atherton in week 10 in a game that could effect their seeding in Divisoin 1 in the play-offs.

Qualified - Los Gatos, Wilcox, Homestead and Palo Alto
Likely –Mountain View (currently 4th in at-large standings. Must beat Los Altos to stay in top 5)

PAL-Bay- Sacred Heart Prep clinched the league championship with a win over Menlo-Atherton Menlo pulled off a slight upset over Burlingame 21-7 to clinch the fourth AQ spot from the PAL Bay. The only league game left to play is the Valpo Bowl between Sacred Heart Prep and Menlo. Both Burlingame and Aragon are in position for at-large berths. Burligame’s position is a lock if they beat San Mateo in their Big Little Game rivalry in Week 10. A loss will put them on the bubble. Aragon is currently the last team in and must win to get an at-large berth in their rivalry game against Hillsdale. If Hillsdale is able to win they will be on the bubble for an at-large berth. Both Burglingame and Aragon will be 10 point+ favorites in their games.

Qualified - Sacred Heart Prep, Menlo-Atherton, Half Moon Bay. Menlo
Likely – Burlingame (currently #3 at-large – must beat San Mateo to hold position) Aragon (Currently #5 in at-large and must beat Hillsdale to hold position). Could be surpassed by St. Francis of Watsonville if they lose to Soledad and drop into At-large pool.

Gabilan – Palma plays at Salinas in a game that will determine the league championship. A Pamla win and they are sole league champion. A Salinas win would create a tie with Palma and and Aptos win over Hollister would create a three-way tie for first. Hollister, Palma, Aptos and Salinas have clinched the four play-off spots. The remaining teams won’t gain an at-large berth.

Qualified Palma, Salinas, Aptos, Hollister

Mt. Hamilton – The league championship will be on the line as undefeated (in league) Live Oak hosts one loss Christopher. Lincoln also has one loss and travels to Leland. A live Oak win makes them sole champion. A Christopher win makes them either Co-Champion with Live Oak or Tir-Champions f Lincoln also wins. Oak Grove is at Santa Teresa with the winner getting the fourth Automatic berth.
Qualified - Live Oak, Lincoln, Christopher
Likely – Santa Teresa (must beat Oak Grove to gain AQ)
Possible - Oak Grove (must beat Santa Teresa to gain AQ)

B Leagues – Two Automatic Spots except for Mission 3 and Cypress 1

El Camino – League play is completed and Kings Academy beat Sequoia to win the league championship. Sequoia finished second and qualified for the play-offs.
Qualified – Kings Academy, Sequoia

Ocean – League play is also done hear and San Mateo won the league championship and Terra Nova finished second to qualify for the play-offs. Hillsdale has a faint possibility to get an at-large berth and would need to beat Aragon and probably also have Burlingame or Mountain View lose.
Qualified – San Mateo, Terra Nova
Possible Hillsdale as an at-large

Mission – Soquel won the league championship and Seaside clinched a berth with their 20-14 overtime win over Scotts Valley. Monterey missed their chance to clinch a spot when they were upset by Carmel 51-44. Monterey plays Seaside in week 10 and will get the league’s third spot with a win but they will be an underdog. If Monterey losses, Scotts Valley (With a win over North Salinas) and Carmel (with a win over Monta Vista Christian) win their week 10 games they will be in a tie for third place. Carmel wins a two-way tie breaker with Monterey. Monterey wins a two-way tie breaker with Scotts Valley due to head to head results. Scotts Valley would win a three-way tie-breaker of all three teams which is now the most likely scenario with most CCS points.
Qualified – Soquel, Seaside
Likely – Scotts Valley
Possible – Monterey Carmel

Cypress – The week 10 game with Soledad hosting St. Francis will determine the league’s sole qualifier. The loser will be on the bubble with St. Francis likely in as an at-large with a lose and Soledad needing a loss from Burlingame, Mountain View or Aragon if they lose against St. Francis.
Qualified – none
Likely – St. Franci,
Possible - Soledad

Foothill – Pioneer is at Branham and the winner will be outright league champion and the loser will finish second and still qualify for the play-offs.
Qualified - Branham, Pioneer

Valley –. Overfelt and Westmont have both clinched play-off berths. Overfelt carries a one game lead over Westmont into week 10.
Qualified -Overfelt, Westmont

C Leagues – One spot

PAL Lake – Woodside won the league and is finished with league play..
Qualified – Woodside

Santa Lucia – Stevenson qualified for the play-offs with their win over Gonzales.
Qualified – Stevenson

West Valley – Willow Glen travels to Del Mar and can win the league outright with a win. If Willow Glen loses they will be co-champions with Del Mar and would lose the head to head tiebreaker. Mt. Pleasant also has one league loss and plays at Evergreen Valley. If Del mar and Mt. Pleasant win, Mt. Pleasant likely wins a three-way tiebreaker as they would have the most CCS points.
Likely Willow Glen,
Possible - Del Mar, Mt. Pleasant

 

[PAL Booster]

At-large standings after week 9 projections (top five qualify)
CCS Points Cal Prep Points Total Position Week 10 assumption

1. St. Ignatius 30.5 15 45.5 1 Beat Riordan*
2. Bellarmine 30 14 44 2 Beat Valley Christian **
3. Burlingame 24.5 13 37.5 3 Beat San Mateo
4. Mountain View 23.5 11 34.5 4 Beat Los Altos
5. Aragon 20.5 12 32.5 5 Beat Hillsdale
6. Soledad 22 10 32 6 Lose to St. Francis (W)***
7. Rancho San Juan 21.5 8 29.5 7 Season Finished
8. Hillsdale 18.5 9 27.5 8 Lose to Aragon
9. Alisal 20 5 25 9 Beat Alvarez
10. Monterey 17 7 24 10 Lose to Seaside
11. Milpitas 18 6 24 11 Lose to Kings Academy
12. Gilroy 18 4 22 12 Beat Silver Creek
13. Santa Cruz 17 3 20 13 Season complete
14. El Camino 17.5 2 19.5 14 Beat South San Francisco
15. Mt. Pleasant 17.5 1 18.5 15 Beat Evergreen Valley

• If SI losses to Riordan Riordan will qualify as an at-large and probably be slightly below Bellarmine.
** Bellarmine will be an a-tlarge with a loss to VC. They would lose 2 CCS points but Cal Prep points would probably stay the same or just drop one point.
*** If St. Francis losses to Soledad, Soledad will be an automatic qualifier and St. Francis will drop the At-Large pool. St. Francis with a loss to Soledad would have 23.5 CCS points. They currently are ranked #26 in CCS by Cal Preps Below Aragon who is #25 but above Mountain View #28. If they lose they will drop but unclear how far. Soledad is currently #31, Hillsdale #39, and Rancho San Juan #43 (who St Francis beat 48-26).

 

[Ballsout1997]

PAL,

Great work as always. Question:

In the event of a tri-champ in PCAL-Gab (Palma and Hollister loss this week). How are the points divided up for Palma, Aptos, and Salinas?

I know you get 2.5 points for being a league champ, so a 3 way tie would give each team .83 points?

Also, you get 1 point for playing a league champion. Does that mean that each of those schools gets 2 points? One point for playing the other two tri-champs?

 

[PAL Booster]

Each team will get 1.5 points league champion bonus points in total . 0.83 for being tri-league champion 2.5/3 and 0.67 points for beating two tri-league champions. All conference teams will still get 1 point for playing the three trie-champions and any non-league opponent would get 0.33 points for playing Palma, Aptos or Salinas.

 

[Cal 14]

Before anyone chooses to call the CCS playoffs watered-down, please know that a whopping 18 (eighteen) teams with losing records populate the SDS brackets, including two with 1-9 records. Unreal.

 

[SqMike]

You see that in the Central Section also.

 

[Cal 14]

You see that in the Central Section also.

Yes, way too many teams advance. Really cheapens the regular season. Just a money grab by the section.

 

[dcpanda]

I feel like I saw a stat on this board that the CCS had the lowest percentage of teams make the playoffs (of all CA sections). Don’t recall the details, though.

 

[Cal 14]

I feel like I saw a stat on this board that the CCS had the lowest percentage of teams make the playoffs (of all CA sections). Don’t recall the details, though.

Yes, that’s something I’ve pointed out a few times. The CCS is one of, if not the, toughest playoff ticket in the state. I haven’t run the numbers recently, but last time I did, it was the toughest.

Not only do the similar-sized CS and SDS have 6 divisions (vs 5 for the CCS), they have 4 rounds for most of them. I think one year, the CS openly invited all teams to the playoffs.

 

[PAL Booster]

It looks like the field of 40 teams is set after Friday nights games. The nine Saturday games may move some of the seedings but should not change which teams qualified for the playoffs. CCS uses Calprep rankings as of 8 AM on Sunday - today there are still 6 CCS games from Friday night that were not in Calpreps and the ratings made some pretty important moves after 8 AM. Hopefully with fewer Saturday games and most of them in the afternoon everything will be in place prior to the seeding meeting.

Friday night action saw Christopher beat Live Oak 21-19 and Lincoln edge Leland 28-27 to create a three way tie for the Mt. Hamilton league championship. Salinas beat Palma 47-14 and Aptos beat Hollister 41-22 to create a three way tie for the Gamelan league championship.

All eight remaining spots were claimed. St. Ignatius beat Riordan 35-14 to finish in 6th place in the WCAL and grab an at-large berth. Monterey beat Seaside 29-27 to claim the last automatic spot open int he Mission league. Santa Teresa beat Oak Grove 43-6 to gain the final spot from the Mt. Hamilton league. In one o the more dramatic games of the evening Soledad battled back from a 21-7 halftime deficit to force overtime against St. Francis (W) and won 34-28 in double overtime to gain the one Cypress league berth. St. Francis (w) will get an at-large bid. Willow Glen beat Del Mar 48-19 to win the West Valley League. Mountain View beat Los Altos 31-6 and will get an at-large bid. It looks like Burlingame will get an at-large bid regardless of today's outcome. If Burlingame losses they would still make the play-off is they finish above Hillsdale who is currently ranked #34. Burlingame is currently ranked #21 and play #26 San Mateo. Hillsdale will likely end up being the #6 ranked at-large (only 5 make the play-offs) in a tiebreaker with Rancho San Juan who will finish #7.

Division 1

Serra plays Sacred Heart Cathedral play today so the outcome of that game might later the seedings. Currently the CalPrep rankings have Mitty at 102, Bellarmine at 149 and Aptos at 151. If mitty gets to #100 or better then all Mitty opponents and Mitty would get another 0.5 points. IF Bellarmine slides out o the top 150 Bellarmine and all of their opponents would lose 0.5 points and if Aptos moves up to 150 or better Aptos and all Aptos opponents will gain 1 point. Finally, Salinas just squeezed ahead of SHP (who is #5) as the #4 ranked team in the section in Calpreps. If that reverses SHP will have a stronger hold on 4th place as they would gain a point and Salinas would lose a point. Palma looks like they will not drop to D@ they can add points if Mitty and Aptos move up. Wilcox doesn't have much in flux that will likely change their number.

8. Palma 8-2 64.5 at 1. Serra 10-0 86*
5. Sacred Heart Prep 9-1 71.5 at 4.Salinas 9-1 72.S*
6. Mitty 6-4 68.33 at 3. Los Gatos 8-2 74.33
7. Sacred Heart Cathedral 67.83 at 2. St. Francis 7-3 77.5*

* Recognizes Clayton Valley as League Champion of the EBAL Mountain and not De La Salle.

Division 2

Points still in play for Bellarmine and Menlo-Atherton which could move their positions.

8. Lincoln 9-1 53 at 1. Wilcox 9-1 64
5. Bellarmine 4-6 58 at 4. Menlo-Atherton 5-5 58.5
6. Christopher 9-1 56 at 3. Aptos 8-2 60.5
7. Half Moon Bay 7-3 53 at 2. St. Ignatius 4-6 61.5

Division 3

Terra Nova upset Half Moon Bay 36-29 to move up. I don't think they will get a point for playing Lincoln SF who mathematically can clinch the AAA league - as they have a a bye next week, but the AAA doesn't complete its season until November 12th. If they are awarded a point they would swap seeds with Soledad. a Burlingame loss in today's game might move them to Division 4

8. Terra Nova 8-2 40.5 at 1. Soquel 9-1 51.33
5. Hollister 5-5 44 at 4. Burlingame 5-5 44.5
6. Kings Academy 8-2 44 at 3. Menlo 5-5 46.5
7. Soledad 9-1 41 at 2. Live Oak 8-2 50

Division 4

Overfelt plays today and needs to win to stay in Division 4. This seeding assumes San Mateo losses today. A San Mateo win would propel them into Division 3.

8. Overfelt 9-1 33.5 at 1. San Mateo 7-3 39.33
5. Mountain View 3-7 36 at 4. Santa Teresa 5-5 36
6. St. Francis (W) 9-1 35.5 at 3. Branham 9-1 37.33
7. Homestead 4-6 33 at 2. Sequoia 9-1 38.5

Division 5

8. Stevenson 6-2 18.94 at 1. Westmont 9-1 29
5. Monterey 6-4 24 at 4. Pioneer 8-2 27.5
6. Woodside 8-2 22 at 3. Palo Alto 4-6 28.5
7. Willow Glen 8-2 19.5 at 2. Seaside 6-4 28.83

 

[Ballsout1997]

PAL Booster,

Thoughts on SHC and Wilcox for CCS rankings? After the SHC loss today, if SHC/Wilcox switch places, Palma ends up in D2. Correct?

 

[PAL Booster]

PAL Booster,

Thoughts on SHC and Wilcox for CCS rankings? After the SHC loss today, if SHC/Wilcox switch places, Palma ends up in D2. Correct?

Two things.

1. SHC started the day at 29.9 and ranked 7th in CCS and Wilcox at 26.8 and ranked 8th. I don't know that SHC will drop three+ points from this loss. IT was close to the predicted range Serra has a 60 ranking - so the prediction was about 30 points and that is what the ratings cap at. I would expect SHC to come down a little but I don't think it will be 3 points.

2. Since I posted this morning Palma has gained an extra point. Aptos went from 152 in the state rankings to 150 - it could move again before tomorrow morning. But if it stays Aptos and all their opponents get an extra point vs what I showed this morning.

So even if SHC dropped below Wilcox - Palma would still be the #8 seed in D1 if Aptos stays at 150 or better.

I will get back on tonight after Calpreps posts this afternoon scores and adjusts ratings.

 

[iamgearyblvd]

There is no one realistically in Serra's class this season in CCS. They are head and shoulders above everyone. D1 should just be top 4 and move everyone down 4.

 

[PAL Booster]

All the key results from today are in and all the CCS points are finalized. Congratulations to Serra and Overfelt for wrapping up their league titles today and to Burlingame for securing an at-large spot. Calpreps has only posted the Burlingame-San Mateo game from today so there might be some shifting in Calprep rankings tomorrow AM that will alter the seedings.

Division 1

8. Palma 8-2 65.5 at 1. Serra 10-0 86*
5. Salinas 9-1 72* at 4. Sacred Heart Prep 9-1 72.5
6. Mitty 6-4 68.33 at 3. Los Gatos 8-2 74.33
7. Sacred Heart Cathedral 67.83 at 2. St. Francis 7-3 77.5*

* Recognizes Clayton Valley as League Champion of the EBAL Mountain and not De La Salle.

Division 2

8. Lincoln 9-1 53 at 1. Wilcox 9-1 64
5. Bellarmine 4-6 58 at 4. Menlo-Atherton 5-5 58.5
6. Christopher 9-1 54 at 3. Aptos 8-2 61.5
7. Half Moon Bay 7-3 53 at 2. St. Ignatius 4-6 61.5

Division 3

8. Terra Nova 8-2 40.5 at 1. Soquel 9-1 50.33
5. Hollister 5-5 45 at 4. Burlingame 5-5 46.5
6. Kings Academy 8-2 44 at 3. Menlo 5-5 46.5
7. Soledad 9-1 42 at 2. Live Oak 8-2 49

Division 4

8. Overfelt 9-1 32.5 at 1. Sequoia 9-1 38.5
5. St. Francis (W) 9-1 36.5 at 4. Santa Teresa 5-5 36
6. San Mateo 7-3 34.33 at 3. Branham 9-1 37.33
7. Homestead 4-6 33.5 at 2. Mountain View 3-7 38

Division 5

8. Stevenson 6-2 18.94 at 1. Westmont 9-1 29
5. Monterey 6-4 24 at 4. Pioneer 8-2 27.5
6. Woodside 8-2 22 at 3. Seaside 6-4 28.83
7. Willow Glen 8-2 19.5 at 2. Palo Alto 4-6 29.5

 

[hsfb44]

If Palo Alto has 29.5 and Westmont has 29 why are the #2?

 

[Scoop and Score]

There is no one realistically in Serra's class this season in CCS. They are head and shoulders above everyone. D1 should just be top 4 and move everyone down 4.

I wish there was a bottom 8 CCS division playoff, that would be top dollar. Everyone gets a trophy right.

 

[Cal 14]

2. Since I posted this morning Palma has gained an extra point. Aptos went from 152 in the state rankings to 150 - it could move again before tomorrow morning. But if it stays Aptos and all their opponents get an extra point vs what I showed this morning.

So even if SHC dropped below Wilcox - Palma would still be the #8 seed in D1 if Aptos stays at 150 or better.

I will get back on tonight after Calpreps posts this afternoon scores and adjusts ratings.

If you had Salinas at 72 before Aptos reached 150, should they not be 73 afterward? That would put them at the 4 seed, at this point.

If the rating gap between Serra and SHC remains the same, the result of their game will likely not be considered significant. This is what happens if teams are not within 30 points and the game result is not within 30 points.

 

[iamgearyblvd]

I wish there was a bottom 8 CCS division playoff, that would be top dollar. Everyone gets a trophy right.

I dont think the kids and coaches are thinking that at all. Thats for the subjective fans. Kids want to play and compete.

 

[PAL Booster]

Division 1
This is what I have as of Sunday Morning at 7:45 - will edit if Calpreps makes any changes before 8 AM which is the time CCS uses to make their seeding and eligibility determinations.

Division 1

8. Palma 8-2 64.5 at 1. Serra 10-0 86*
5. Sacred Heart Prep 9-1 71.5 at 4. Salinas 9-1 72*
6. Mitty 6-4 68.33 at 3. Los Gatos 8-2 74.33
7. Sacred Heart Cathedral 67.83 at 2. St. Francis 7-3 77.5*

* Recognizes Clayton Valley as League Champion of the EBAL Mountain and not De La Salle.

Aptos is at number 152 (they were at 150 much of yesterday - so Aptos and all teams they played have one less point then when they were at 150. Also when I did this at one point yesterday Sacred Heart Prep had moved ahead of Salinas in the CalPrep rankings so SHP got a point and Salinas lost a point. now Salinas is rated higher so you have the result listed above.

Division 2

8. Lincoln 9-1 53 at 1. Wilcox 9-1 64
5. Bellarmine 4-6 58 at 4. Menlo-Atherton 5-5 58.5
6. Christopher 9-1 54 at 3. Aptos 8-2 60.5
7. Half Moon Bay 7-3 53 at 2. St. Ignatius 4-6 61.5

Half Moon Bay wins tiebreaker over Lincoln due to higher Calpreps ranking.

Division 3

8. Terra Nova 8-2 40.5 at 1. Soquel 9-1 50.33
5. Hollister 5-5 44 at 4. Burlingame 5-5 46.5
6. Kings Academy 8-2 44 at 3. Menlo 5-5 46.5
7. Soledad 9-1 42 at 2. Live Oak 8-2 49

Menlo Wins tiebreaker vs Burlingame due to head to head win
Hollister wins tiebreaker with Kings Academy due to higher Calpreps ranking

Division 4

8. Overfelt 9-1 32.5 at 1. Sequoia 9-1 38.5
5. St. Francis (W) 9-1 36.5 at 4. Santa Teresa 5-5 37
6. San Mateo 7-3 34.33 at 3. Branham 9-1 37.33
7. Homestead 4-6 33.5 at 2. Mountain View 3-7 38

Division 5

8. Stevenson 6-2 18.94 at 1. Palo Alto 4-6 29.5
5. Monterey 6-4 24 at 4. Pioneer 8-2 27.5
6. Woodside 8-2 22 at 3. Seaside 6-4 28.83
7. Willow Glen 8-2 19.5 at 2.Westmont 9-1 29

 

[PAL Booster]

If Palo Alto has 29.5 and Westmont has 29 why are the #2?

Good catch - that was a transcription mistake - points for team are correct - Palo Alto is #1 with 29.5 and Westmont is at 29 points and is #2

 

[PAL Booster]

If you had Salinas at 72 before Aptos reached 150, should they not be 73 afterward? That would put them at the 4 seed, at this point.

If the rating gap between Serra and SHC remains the same, the result of their game will likely not be considered significant. This is what happens if teams are not within 30 points and the game result is not within 30 points.

SHP and Salinas have identical 34.7 rankings and at different interval updates one has been ranked 34 in the CCS and other #5. At that time Salinas was dropped from #4 to#5 so lost a point (which it recovered by Aptos being at number 150). At this time Salinas is #4 and SHP is #5 and Aptos #152. So Salinas stayed the same again but SHP lost a point and is seeded #5 in D1.

SHC only dropped 0.2 from 29.9 to 29.7 from their loss to Serra and stayed ranked #7 in CCS in Calpreps.

 

[PAL Booster]

There is no one realistically in Serra's class this season in CCS. They are head and shoulders above everyone. D1 should just be top 4 and move everyone down 4.

I agree that Serra is a strong favorite this year, but disagree on making D1 just four teams. just last year there was very similar sentiment around St. Francis who went 9-0 (broke DLS Nor-Cal win streak), went 7-0 in the WCAL beating all teams by 14 points or more and scoring 30 pus points in its first 11 games before falling to Serra 16-12 in the D1 semi-finals. I also think the teams seeded 2-8 offer interesting match-ups against each other.

 

[hsfb44]

Good catch - that was a transcription mistake - points for team are correct - Palo Alto is #1 with 29.5 and Westmont is at 29 points and is #2

Turns out there was a tiebreak for #1 and #2 and Westmont won by common opponent. Seeds are different but the matchups the same. Stevenson leapfrogged Willow Glen because of a less than 10 calc the double the points since the missed 2 games and not 1. Weird interpretation but accepted by the committee